Dow 2008

[chilltrader]

War between Russia and Georgia - can have serious implications if posturing from NATO happens.

As for the american killed in Beijing - non event IMHO.

Leovirgo and others,

This weekend we have had bad news, war has broken out between georgia and mother Russia.
This cannot help us DOW traders. We may see Oil go up from lows, maybe..

Also, an american was killed in Beijing. Stabbed to death. Not sure if this is as important as the new war between russia and georgia, but something to consider!

Leovirgo-the 7th was indeed a short day, I was stopped out due to a tight stoploss. Bummer.
On the 8th, if you missed out, try to use MA crossovers to find breakouts. I got on at the end of the day to make 60pts (not much, but something at least).

Monday-maybe a selloff, and then go long.We'll just have to see what happens. The news may favor an advance in oil. We'll trade with the trend either way...

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Thanks Chill!
I was wondering if the killing would have an impact.
Well if oil stays down, I can bet on the long side (while using my system to find the trend).
I'd say I'm long biased, but monday mornings can be fun to sell into I watch for that.

Looks like Japanese stocks rallied hard on Friday too!
I'm considering trading the /NK index on the side of my DOW trading.
After looking at the charts, YM and NK took off at the same time.

Anyone else trading other non-us indexes? Any indexes with heavy volume in PM?

Heaviest volume on the NK looks like the same for US stocks, correct? But the volume of NK is a dwarf compared to YM.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

After this awesome weekend I'm ready for monday. The weather has been so nice, plenty of time to refresh the mind and body! Any ideas about where the DOW is going guys? I think we're heading toward 12000 eventually.
let's make some money!!

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

Based on the weekly charts it's all looking bullish. MACD & MA5 already bullish with price having cut through MA10 next buy signal is with MA5 crossing over MA10 on my system.

I do feel we may have another test of the lows but I'm cooling off the idea of a big melt down. At least not until we reach at least Fib 61% retrace around 12250 regions.

Pivot points shoiwng

R1 @ 11821 and
R2 @ 11980

Will not change bullish view unless pivot point 11500 is breached.


Good trading guys...

 

[breadman]

11855 first resistance looking for a bit of a sell off.

 

[breadman]

dollar index is at major down trend going back from Nov 05 to now.Oil is around $113 with a couple more dollars to go to the March 08 high around $110/111.
selling dow now 11850 for a short term trade.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

I see the selling volume. We're retracting from the nice run up, which is typical.

BUT, Breadman-the US dollar index is STILL up at 75.80ish so how can we be in a major down trend? Overall we have trended down, but lately the USD has rallied up off those lows. We may be exiting the bearish trend within a few months IF this continues.
Your short is working because there is resistence @11855. but that could easily be broken.
trail those profits.

I finished trading for the day. 1hr of "work"=3% of my total account...could have done 10%+ tho.

 

[breadman]

close at 11762

 

[breadman]

I see the selling volume. We're retracting from the nice run up, which is typical.

BUT, Breadman-the US dollar index is STILL up at 75.80ish so how can we be in a major down trend? Overall we have trended down, but lately the USD has rallied up off those lows. We may be exiting the bearish trend within a few months IF this continues.
Your short is working because there is resistence @11855. but that could easily be broken.
trail those profits.

I finished trading for the day. 1hr of "work"=3% of my total account...could have done 10%+ tho.

Mr J Arthur,
The down trend I am talking about started in November 2005, have a look at a 3 year chart.

 

[Atilla]

Mr J Arthur,
The down trend I am talking about started in November 2005, have a look at a 3 year chart.

You mean Oct 2007?

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Yes I know USD is on the downward spiral (long term), with a short term "jump" currently happening.

Well today was certainly a GOOD day for us intraday traders! Long at the market opening and then short as soon as oil went from 112-114. I woke up at 11am and managed to pull 5 winning trades and earn 3% of my total account. An easy day for me. I was on the verge of taking a short at the high when I saw the market sputter and make double tops...but I stayed out.

I hope you guys caught more points than me!

Looks like we'll have another interesting day tomorrow. If oil stays low maybe the DOW will test 11860 again and hopefully break through! If it becomes a down day, support should show it's head 11700 or 11600...and oil would have to breakout big time for DOW to sink down to 11400.

Go USD!
Go down Oil where you belong @ 100 bbl!
and let's see this silly war end between georgia and russia!

Comments? questions or concerns? post em!

 

[breadman]

You mean Oct 2007?

I still think 16 November 2005 from the 92.00 level is the major down trend line which we are on now.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Breadman-fine, it makes sense that USD has been on down trend ever since Gold made it's big runup to 1000/oz.

Any ideas on today guys? Looks to me that crude may not hold 114. DOW should be a pretty safe bet if crude retracts.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

SOLD Short @ 11740

Crude BREAKING out on the upside, cannot be bullish if oil is "popping."

Will cover at open if stop is tripped, otherwise this will be a slide down into open.
DOW isn't good friends with crude, so this is a cat fight of sorts.

EDIT: Stop triggered. Will wait for a signal on open now...But hey, an easy 1% before open! I'll take it.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Hey, it's quiet in here!

Hope none of you traders got trapped in a long at opening. Trend before opening was down according to MA's. Unfortunately my short was stopped out at a small profit, but there was plenty of downside to scalp and then the reversal was signaled in OIL's decline from 115/bbl down to 112. Overall pretty choppy, but I pulled another 2%+ today. A few hours of work and the day is now done. Getting ready to hit up the gym now.

It's nice to have strong trends, because that's where the big easy money waits
Days like today are okay in some respects because the amatures pad our wallets!
I had some bullish hopes for today, but in the end we listen to the trend.

happy fortunes!

 

[Atilla]

Hey, it's quiet in here!

Hope none of you traders got trapped in a long at opening. Trend before opening was down according to MA's. Unfortunately my short was stopped out at a small profit, but there was plenty of downside to scalp and then the reversal was signaled in OIL's decline from 115/bbl down to 112. Overall pretty choppy, but I pulled another 2%+ today. A few hours of work and the day is now done. Getting ready to hit up the gym now.

It's nice to have strong trends, because that's where the big easy money waits
Days like today are okay in some respects because the amatures pad our wallets!
I had some bullish hopes for today, but in the end we listen to the trend.

happy fortunes!

Anybody have 11566 as a target???

 

[francisfinley]

hi im doing the dow too.

this is my first post but ive been around for a while.

ad

 

[breadman]

Anybody have 11566 as a target???

yes next target if 11665 breaks which it is doing now

 

[Atilla]

We have breached

S1 @ 11668 and now we have fallen through 11650 and now I feel we will test 11566...

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

"Anybody have 11566 as a target???"


SURE ATILLA! It's only a hundred or so points away and the market is taking a big crap today.
I guess I don't have a specific target and I currently have no positions, but I'm on the lookout for more BEAR activity tomorrow. I did short into opening, but didn't hold that position very long.

The floor is dropping out. If oil can get up to 115 again tomorrow, we'll see more selling. When oil gets beaten down to 112 we get a little bounce up in the DOW.