gilligullu
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Sorry, long since 17th May, 2007?
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Sorry, long since 17th May, 2007?
Grey1
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sorry I meant 17th April sorry about that ,, we posted the trade in the Techncial Trader Forum. Not sure why i wrote MAY lol
grey1
the end is nigh............... even better if we get strong jobs ....
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one of the private banks sez oil/softs....euro.... will end in tears... has the crying started ?
- new bear market close if not here...................--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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one of the private banks sez oil/softs....euro.... will end in tears... has the crying started ?
- new bear market close if not here...................--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
firewalker99
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Well, the +5000 posts have to come from somewhere
Only a small number of my posts are the private forums Grey.
Now that dbphoenix has left, 'Mapping the Territory' is dormant and my own private forum is mainly where I post my own live positions. They are no big secret which I why I sometimes post them in this thread too. However, thanks to a growing number of contributors in that group I am no longer talking to myself
firewalker99
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I'm not sure why you'd say "wasting your time". Most of the people in this thread are daytraders are have positions running from 1 to 3 days. So... unless you're saying daytrading is less interesting than swing trading, I think gilligullu has been doing fine. Except for the 'gambling' part obviously...
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gilligullu
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Yea, got me confused there... Thats a good call mate, btw i have put in a request to join your group, it would be great if I could see and learn how you guys trade.:smart:
Thanks FW
, still have a lot to learn... especially self discipline, i trend to do better when I only do 2 or 3 trades a day....
firewalker99
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A case for a bull market?
interesting about the 'new bear market',... I'm already having a hard time believing the one we have (had?) is over
I made a similar post over at Grey1's private forum, bit figured it might be interesting to discuss here as well.
I'm going to take the side of the "bulls" here for a minute to give you the arguments why I think going long in March was the right thing to do (with a target at resistance around 12900 has been hit obviously).
Here are a couple of charts. The first one is the DOW Jones Industrial Average, the DOW as we all know it. The other one is the DOW Transports, which should be the 'leading indicator'. The last one is the VIX, a contrary indicator like I said before.
When the market dropped sharply in the beginning of this year, we exhausted into a temporary low in January ('X'). This can be seen by the huge volume and the immediate reaction up because price moved up about 500 points in one day. Going long here is very risky and not my style, although I do know some aggressive traders who go long off the selling climax. Anyway... Look at the transport charts and 'A' is that same low.
Two months later we test that low on the DOW Industrials 'Y'. But - and this is a first sign of divergence -the Transports sets in and makes a higher low! This is very significant and is confirmation that a long entry has a very high probability of succeeding. Notice how we have been making higher highs and higher lows ever since the March Low.
So to sum things up, these were my reasons to take a long in March instead of waiting till April for confirmation:
1. a selling climax on huge volume in the background usually exhausts the downmove
2. a re-test that fails to break below the January lows
3. at the same time the dow transports gives divergence and a higher low
4. the blue trendlines are broken in March
5. general consensus was very bearish, notice how in each market bottom the VIX was at it's highest
Any thoughts?
interesting about the 'new bear market',... I'm already having a hard time believing the one we have (had?) is over
I made a similar post over at Grey1's private forum, bit figured it might be interesting to discuss here as well.
I'm going to take the side of the "bulls" here for a minute to give you the arguments why I think going long in March was the right thing to do (with a target at resistance around 12900 has been hit obviously).
Here are a couple of charts. The first one is the DOW Jones Industrial Average, the DOW as we all know it. The other one is the DOW Transports, which should be the 'leading indicator'. The last one is the VIX, a contrary indicator like I said before.
When the market dropped sharply in the beginning of this year, we exhausted into a temporary low in January ('X'). This can be seen by the huge volume and the immediate reaction up because price moved up about 500 points in one day. Going long here is very risky and not my style, although I do know some aggressive traders who go long off the selling climax. Anyway... Look at the transport charts and 'A' is that same low.
Two months later we test that low on the DOW Industrials 'Y'. But - and this is a first sign of divergence -the Transports sets in and makes a higher low! This is very significant and is confirmation that a long entry has a very high probability of succeeding. Notice how we have been making higher highs and higher lows ever since the March Low.
So to sum things up, these were my reasons to take a long in March instead of waiting till April for confirmation:
1. a selling climax on huge volume in the background usually exhausts the downmove
2. a re-test that fails to break below the January lows
3. at the same time the dow transports gives divergence and a higher low
4. the blue trendlines are broken in March
5. general consensus was very bearish, notice how in each market bottom the VIX was at it's highest
Any thoughts?
Attachments
grey you are a complete ****hole, sorry but you are...........if members here go to the techical trader they will see that you banned me for only asking why people were not making money with your methods, you are very arrogent and think your methods are the only way, well i have followed you for a couple of years now and honestly they are not the only way, infact since i stopped trying to follow your ways ive been successfull and not just for a couple of weeks, im talking months.
You un fairly banned me i feel but so glad you did now otherwise id still be trying to figure out and keep going round in circles with your methods, by the way it is not just me who feels your methods have serious weaknesses in them, i will not mention names of course. By the way i had book the day of work and cancelled important things to attend your online seminar, you never even bothered to give an explanation, i know i can be a pain sometimes but what did i say that was so bad, i only asking why people are not making money with your methods and the only people that seemed to be making money was the 2 people you constantly mentor every day on skype..........you are just like arsene wenger, brilliant but very arrogent and im so glad ive now stopped following you, i mean this from the bottom of my heart, you really messed me up and set my trading back, i now realise this, you should serious think about what you are doing.
As for firewalker, why should he not post on the main board, are we all not worthy here?, there are some great traders here and they keep things simple, i like that and guess what they make money.
Remember grey you were a long term short 'for at least 18 months' you said, now look at the markets, I remember the emergency cut by the fed, you said that would take 18 months to take effect on the markets, well im pretty sure now you cannot predict nothing just like the rest of us and ive lost respect as I thought you were the man but you clearly are not, you got the direction wrong and its funny how all of a sudden from being an absolutley ademant shorter you are now long, what can i say.
Feel free to tell the main boarders why you sacked me but remember im a real true person and tells it how it is and i think people trust me here, just looking at my posts you can see that, yes i may not tell it in the right manner sometimes but i mean well.
And by the way why do people want to go and reccomend his posts, that is just pure brown nosing, com on guys what did he say in them two post that really warranted that, com on.
A gaze inside the empty vessel
[1] the end is nigh.... is as ever an opportunistic call.
Other ta's have cited spx 1440-50 as their tgt before a turn of some sort......that's not far away.
slow stochastics on daily spx .is sitting above 80 (87) having hit tad over 90......
we are looking for a topping well above 80....... so in the zone.
spx hits 200ema Thurs - many follow ema but ..... i have no view ( 4 once)!
[spx is now within 25pts of 200ma(sma) @ 1433......]
ajaskey sees $50 for qqq..............and 1440 for spx........ before a setback. both relatively near. Given his call about a rally into June.....the setback "may" be just a pause.... that's the impression i get from reading his work.
One of the Bigdogs .......... who called for a big rally days after the March lows - expects recessionary fears to subside as US shoppers get back to businesses....maybe walmart was telling us this all along They are bullish for a while longer. No it wasn't soros/rogers..... by the way... who both promptly called March a solid low. Bill McLaren & ajaskey were both looking for a March low too!
So with a trusted Bigdog expecting more upside - they don't DO short term or tech anal- the impending several hundred pt move down... might indeed be a pause. Lets see.
Since we can foresee the slide using basic ta - the larger question is what happens to the bounce thereafter.... Mclaren is cautious for the next few days seeing the period as a key window. If we can get past it without major incident..... well you can guess.....
So the end is nigh alludes to the inevitable(?) nearer term fall... based on stochs/ma's and a bit of gann angles But the call is a tad contrarian in that it could also mean that this slide could be significant. The trusted Bigdogs do not expect this (they appear to concur with ajaskey's roadmap by and large.....)
========================================================================
On the assumption that we run up more after pbk...I'm looking for beaten down stox......GE, Amd?...Starbux? GARMIN ?....but there are loads in uk/EU too like Bt grp.
If the pbk is more serious we shall know as it unfolds.
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[2] If they say oil/softs blazing bubble is suspect then I'm listening. They also expect mean reversion in the euro/$ ............. these are the potential New Bears I'm referring to...... If those Bear markets have begun ....the down trend should last for several weeks maybe months.
Finally, Bigdogs said that unemployment is still relatively LOW...to mean good........ very curiuos comment!
interesting about the 'new bear market',... I'm already having a hard time believing the one we have (had?) is over
[1] the end is nigh.... is as ever an opportunistic call.
Other ta's have cited spx 1440-50 as their tgt before a turn of some sort......that's not far away.
slow stochastics on daily spx .is sitting above 80 (87) having hit tad over 90......
we are looking for a topping well above 80....... so in the zone.
spx hits 200ema Thurs - many follow ema but ..... i have no view ( 4 once)!
[spx is now within 25pts of 200ma(sma) @ 1433......]
ajaskey sees $50 for qqq..............and 1440 for spx........ before a setback. both relatively near. Given his call about a rally into June.....the setback "may" be just a pause.... that's the impression i get from reading his work.
One of the Bigdogs .......... who called for a big rally days after the March lows - expects recessionary fears to subside as US shoppers get back to businesses....maybe walmart was telling us this all along
They are bullish for a while longer. No it wasn't soros/rogers..... by the way... who both promptly called March a solid low. Bill McLaren & ajaskey were both looking for a March low too!So with a trusted Bigdog expecting more upside - they don't DO short term or tech anal- the impending several hundred pt move down... might indeed be a pause. Lets see.
Since we can foresee the slide using basic ta - the larger question is what happens to the bounce thereafter.... Mclaren is cautious for the next few days seeing the period as a key window. If we can get past it without major incident..... well you can guess.....
So the end is nigh alludes to the inevitable(?) nearer term fall... based on stochs/ma's and a bit of gann angles
But the call is a tad contrarian in that it could also mean that this slide could be significant. The trusted Bigdogs do not expect this (they appear to concur with ajaskey's roadmap by and large.....)========================================================================
On the assumption that we run up more after pbk...I'm looking for beaten down stox......GE, Amd?...Starbux? GARMIN ?....but there are loads in uk/EU too like Bt grp.
If the pbk is more serious we shall know as it unfolds.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[2] If they say oil/softs blazing bubble is suspect then I'm listening. They also expect mean reversion in the euro/$ ............. these are the potential New Bears I'm referring to...... If those Bear markets have begun ....the down trend should last for several weeks maybe months.
Finally, Bigdogs said that unemployment is still relatively LOW...to mean good........ very curiuos comment!
black bear
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Rep pt for Grey 1 deserved imho
"And by the way why do people want to go and reccomend his posts, that is just pure brown nosing, com on guys what did he say in them two post that really warranted that, com on."
Very informatve posts on all threads imho and always ready to answer a question if you ask him in an un-biased way
Do not use or no his method but I am sure it works for him and he only ever appears to be helping and passing on ideas, no need to fall out just because you do not agree or find them helpful imho
Its his group, he makes the rules, don"t like them .........do one and go some place else
Rep pt given, and they are mine to give and I think he deserves one
"And by the way why do people want to go and reccomend his posts, that is just pure brown nosing, com on guys what did he say in them two post that really warranted that, com on."
Very informatve posts on all threads imho and always ready to answer a question if you ask him in an un-biased way
Do not use or no his method but I am sure it works for him and he only ever appears to be helping and passing on ideas, no need to fall out just because you do not agree or find them helpful imho
Its his group, he makes the rules, don"t like them .........do one and go some place else
Rep pt given, and they are mine to give and I think he deserves one
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FW,
I agree. I like to watch the Transports(usually the daily chart) to provide clarity or confirmation. Is it holding s/r? is it breaking s/r? is it trending? topping, bottoming? (you get the idea)
You often mention volume. I am not too much of a volume reader, unless there's a very large volume spike with a nice down movement in price. which is then followed by a major contraction in volume and price settling down. once price moves upward I'm long for the ride. (this is a high % strategy by itself once you recognize it).
two technicals I glance at are fibonacci and rsi. If rsi is spiking 6 or more points (like yesterday) to os/ob it tells me price has momentum. a gradual cross to ob/os is just that ob/os.
we all look at several things subconsciously and develop interpretations through experience but for me price action is key. it doesn't matter if it's up or down i just need momentum when i enter the trade.
black bear
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anyone think it was curious that fed news came with jobs...........
we'll know by end of the day........maybe.... spx now retraced HALF of autumn down move...as we know
again
Bank holiday is it Monday :?:
Plenty Ftse contracts wizzing past my window, hit the level within 0.5 of a pt
will have to ask Fw what that means :whistlingJun fut 6239, sweaty hands over the wk end for the weak holders .....
will it won"t it
Can see Dow boys buying it like mad men into the close to worry the ftse boys to death over the weekend
Have a good one all :clover:
I hope you're right about.....
..... Dow boys buying like mad into the close since we have a nice little dip
My curiosity was piqued when I realised Fed must want a flying market into the open and poss this weekend.............. what the **** are they upto .... but yes this dip is interesting with around 4hrs to go
again
Bank holiday is it Monday :?:
Plenty Ftse contracts wizzing past my window, hit the level within 0.5 of a pt
Jun fut 6239, sweaty hands over the wk end for the weak holders .....
will it won"t it
Can see Dow boys buying it like mad men into the close to worry the ftse boys to death over the weekend
Have a good one all :clover:
..... Dow boys buying like mad into the close since we have a nice little dip
My curiosity was piqued when I realised Fed must want a flying market into the open and poss this weekend.............. what the **** are they upto .... but yes this dip is interesting with around 4hrs to go
Apart from the technical signal to be long (FTSE) that I got as at 24th April what has gradually been banging my antennae is there is simply a huge unprecedented amount of stage management going on to hold this market up and short of a random event tearing that to shreds I am struggling to find a reason not to continue to be long. Also bear in mind as we come into next week we have the option runup period right in front of us and it cannot have escaped attention how that has been used in recent months. Will that repeat ? wait and see.
I find this tough to rationalise as I have been fundamentally bearish for quite some time (and remain so),and had thoroughly expected a brick wall to chop this rally. From a trader perspective though I can understand it ,fact is people have been scared 'shtiless' since middle of last year ($50 billion stock dumped) ,BUT I know from experience after a while people just cannot stay that emotionally out there. It becomes something akin to paramedics "Oh, another car crash , fair enough now what's next" and from a trading viewpoint that really means people reach a limit on just how responsive they are going to be to the next piece of crap news.
Whilst arguably I've been 'late' to get a signal I have no issue with that ,because my style does not work well with the kind of volatility we've been getting. I'm much better when we're getting 'bored' to death...I do 'bored' really well ..bring me 'boring'.
If JT reads this he may find it useful ,because this is one of those hurdles to cross from testing to trading..investing to short term trading..having a fundamental bias that contradicts what the price and technicals are telling you and being able to say fair enough I'm going to change my mind until I have to change it again.
I find this tough to rationalise as I have been fundamentally bearish for quite some time (and remain so),and had thoroughly expected a brick wall to chop this rally. From a trader perspective though I can understand it ,fact is people have been scared 'shtiless' since middle of last year ($50 billion stock dumped) ,BUT I know from experience after a while people just cannot stay that emotionally out there. It becomes something akin to paramedics "Oh, another car crash , fair enough now what's next" and from a trading viewpoint that really means people reach a limit on just how responsive they are going to be to the next piece of crap news.
Whilst arguably I've been 'late' to get a signal I have no issue with that ,because my style does not work well with the kind of volatility we've been getting. I'm much better when we're getting 'bored' to death...I do 'bored' really well
..bring me 'boring'.If JT reads this he may find it useful ,because this is one of those hurdles to cross from testing to trading..investing to short term trading..having a fundamental bias that contradicts what the price and technicals are telling you and being able to say fair enough I'm going to change my mind until I have to change it again.
catracho
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Thread quiet cos..most markets still in ranges since end Jan...
for Bears:
Dow needs to stil break 12100 convincingly
DAX 6650
FTSE.5650 ish
For bulls:
Dow needs to break 12800
FTSE ...broke out at 6000 (but maybe false break - so now look for 6050 convincing)
DAX...7050 and higher..
let's hope somethinghappens soon!:whistling
looks like the bulls are winning so far - tho caution may be warranted as we are near top end of ranges...need to see some good follow through to recent rallies...
Well them posts are from one week ago I think. We are up around 200 points on the Dow since then. Maybe i'll get the rest of the points next week? However, the pattern doesn't look to be a 'propper' breakout and I think there will be some excellent shorting opportunites shold we get my 500 pip target (approx 13350)
Very annoyed as I missed out on the fun today. The spike up would have been very tempting for a short
I currently have no new trades on which is rare for me. No system signals triggered for Next week as yet.
Spot On!
Just looked at the daily closing chart of spx and we closed right at the 50% retrace of the "bear" campaign ~ 1414.. (also on intraday basis we tagged the 50% retrace)
A regain of 1400 (establishing price above 1400) on close looks very very bullish.
Downswide risks..... [since we have hit 50% mark and very close to 40wk ma, plus slow stochs nearing 90, plus 200ma around 2% away and FOR NOW spx has rallied 46d which is nearish to 45d (half 90d cycle) sometimes important!
<could a ~45d move into 50% retrace be important ??> or am I clutching at straws.......???????
From here standard bullish retracement (25%) of the bounce off the lows (intraday pricing) gives us circa 1380........ which was sppt this week.
Bad week of down 3% for May 9th gives us circa 1370 which has also been support
33% retrace of the March bounce (using intraday pricing) takes us to around 1367.
Yep we could fall almost 50pts from here and still be okay............. in theory.
So it would take a biggie to de-rail the express train next week.... but with hookie technicals approaching an interesting point - next week should be key.
Spx was up 1.15% this week.
==========================================================================
I know I know I should post to the trading the spx thread but directionally it is similar to the dow so fair proxy generally ....
What is interesting (?) is that with so many market watchers globally it's increasingly hard for commentators to find something "original" or "different" to say and I note that Swenlin @ Decisionpoint.com - Complete Market Research at a Glance has moved to comment on us entering an unfavourable seasonality period from May 1-October 31.... and reminds us we are still in a bear market....................
Distance=perspective I suppose..............
Just looked at the daily closing chart of spx and we closed right at the 50% retrace of the "bear" campaign ~ 1414.. (also on intraday basis we tagged the 50% retrace)
A regain of 1400 (establishing price above 1400) on close looks very very bullish.
Downswide risks..... [since we have hit 50% mark and very close to 40wk ma, plus slow stochs nearing 90, plus 200ma around 2% away and FOR NOW spx has rallied 46d which is nearish to 45d (half 90d cycle) sometimes important!
<could a ~45d move into 50% retrace be important ??> or am I clutching at straws.......???????
From here standard bullish retracement (25%) of the bounce off the lows (intraday pricing) gives us circa 1380........ which was sppt this week.
Bad week of down 3% for May 9th gives us circa 1370 which has also been support
33% retrace of the March bounce (using intraday pricing) takes us to around 1367.
Yep we could fall almost 50pts from here and still be okay............. in theory.
So it would take a biggie to de-rail the express train next week.... but with hookie technicals approaching an interesting point - next week should be key.
Spx was up 1.15% this week.
==========================================================================
I know I know I should post to the trading the spx thread but directionally it is similar to the dow so fair proxy generally ....
What is interesting (?) is that with so many market watchers globally it's increasingly hard for commentators to find something "original" or "different" to say and I note that Swenlin @ Decisionpoint.com - Complete Market Research at a Glance has moved to comment on us entering an unfavourable seasonality period from May 1-October 31.... and reminds us we are still in a bear market....................
Distance=perspective I suppose..............
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