- Status
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
Yes, that's right. That's basically what I've been saying all along Grey1. You say you disagree, but it looks to me like we are in agreement
The market is leading the economy by a couple of months. I posted this two days ago in another thread, giving several examples of why this is the case.
The problem is that when the public looks in the papers for news, it's by definition "old". An economic figure, CPI, GDP, etc... is by definition a representation of something that happened in the past. A corporate earnings report gives information about how well the company did in the previous quarter, again old news.
News can and will influence the market temporarily. Of course it has an effect, but it's usually short-lived. If you're talking about the financial crisis for example, you'll see that the worst news came out, after there was already a downtrend established. It's hard to find any good news these days, yet the market is going up.
You see, the news available (with that I mean the things you hear and read about every day), does not determine the direction, otherwise we would be going straight down.
Grey1
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,190
- Likes
- 204
Yes, that's right. That's basically what I've been saying all along Grey1. You say you disagree, but it looks to me like we are in agreement
The market is leading the economy by a couple of months. I posted this two days ago in another thread, giving several examples of why this is the case.
The problem is that when the public looks in the papers for news, it's by definition "old". An economic figure, CPI, GDP, etc... is by definition a representation of something that happened in the past. A corporate earnings report gives information about how well the company did in the previous quarter, again old news.
News can and will influence the market temporarily. Of course it has an effect, but it's usually short-lived. If you're talking about the financial crisis for example, you'll see that the worst news came out, after there was already a downtrend established. It's hard to find any good news these days, yet the market is going up.
You see, the news available (with that I mean the things you hear and read about every day), does not determine the direction, otherwise we would be going straight down.
you are spot on ,
To put all above in technical format we say..
MARKET IS A FORWARD LOOKING DISCOUNTING MEHCANISM WITH OLD NEWS PRICED IN , AND IMMEDIATLEY LOOKing INTO FUTURE.
DOW Is currently OB on Daily and weekly time frame which means it has to correct sooner or later before it break out to above. The amount of correction will be small around 100-200 points but the rally will soon covers the 200 points loss and a major break out afterward. I have asked people who missed the boat on 17th April LONG CALL not to OPEN any new positions till we have at least an OS market on daily time frame.
A strong market has a very clever way of getting out of OB situation without giving away many points. THIS MARKET IS VERY VERY STRONG .
grey1
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
You're right it's a strong market.
I don't use the terms overbought and oversold, but markets are currently trying to overcome resistance, which means the same thing in a sense. The Nasdaq for example (see chart), is not only pushing against 2000, but it also has the supplyline (blue) that is keeping this from going up further for the time being.
Good trading.
Attachments
Knew it meant something.......
Now we know why the indices were behaving so strangely (in such a weird fashion).
==========================================================================
Now last weeks lows were in 1380/83 bracket on Spx and around 790/800 on dow so lets see if they try to bring em back (noting dow has now broken Slow stochs level of 80 though we need to check that on close!)
Now we know why the indices were behaving so strangely (in such a weird fashion).
==========================================================================
Now last weeks lows were in 1380/83 bracket on Spx and around 790/800 on dow so lets see if they try to bring em back (noting dow has now broken Slow stochs level of 80 though we need to check that on close!)
Bulls have got to turn up in the last half hour since Naz100 on track for a key reversal if it closes beneath 1957.6....lets call it 1957......
Dow has reached last week's sppt zone around 800 so moment of truth.... though this may spill over into Thursday............. bulls will expect 800 to hold and track back to 13100-150 (that's good money though so lets see.............)
Dow has reached last week's sppt zone around 800 so moment of truth.... though this may spill over into Thursday............. bulls will expect 800 to hold and track back to 13100-150 (that's good money though so lets see.............
)
Dow daily Slow stochs breaks 80 today and closed at 65........... signal in but as I said a bit back you want a topping in slow stochs ideally rather than wait for the break cos it not a fast mover! ...
We also got key reversal on Naz100 ..... but it remains solid since it only hit highs today....and is still in region of 200ma but first cracks..?. for some. Key reversals sometimes mean nothing and nullified the following day if no follow thru....
So What ? So What ??
We have a wobble but naz still okay as of close but "minor" sign that all is not well. Early days for the bigger pic.
We have Dow at sppt region = last weeks lows (and historic resistance for months)
We have spx at sort of channel sppt but well above the lows of last week - and even if we got there we might expect to find sppt....
Despite my caution in declaring the party over (naturally) I note Bill McLaren [www.mclarenreport.com.au ] has said he wanted a few more days to evaluate cos this last leg up could be a countertrend and resume the downwave......... We have some negative price action at sortov obvious places especially in Naz100 (thanks fw & ajaskey) and you know the fuss I was making about 45d into 50% retrace for Spx over the weekend plus slow stochs well above 80 ...and and...
Well we got a sell off but I missed the "signal" when spx failed to make new swing high last night...so ~ dbletop....... it was low risk but never played it...........
ended up playing catch up after the event with "more risk" .... We are NOW looking at low 1380's and 1370 on spx for pot sppt (25% & 33% retrace of march rally). The pbk was not that hard to call really but now it's about the depth of pbk and the bounce thereafter as mentioned at weekend............
What was also interesting is the outsideday posted in spx Tues which came back strong to make higher daily highs on spx was a very bullish sign 4 me - only weakened by reluctance to make new swing highs............................... and today it flopped!
I would imagine Oscar says one day does not make a trend and using his DJ transport analogy expect us to go up once more.... He's got so many reason to remain bullish I predict he won't don the bearskin after one day........
Closing Remarks
-NAZ 100 had key day reversal from highs -so will be my focus for the rest of the week.
-Dow tags last weeks lows so easy to place a stop and "punt" - if that's your style :cheesy:
Looks like this pbk will be "called" a pause that refreshes - I don't know but options are (1) New Swing highs - good money
or (2) a failed rally and more downside okay money and then good money...........Thursday represents day 4 off the swing highs for Spx and Dow 30 it is possible we could bounce tomoorw especially if we make new daily lows......
Last edited:
bottomleyp
Member
- Messages
- 90
- Likes
- 4
All US Indices
Hi Guys, have not been posting lately, but my tuppence worth is that the
markets are begining to fall due to the price of crude.
On that note, I admit to shorting at $122 and $123, this could be suicidal, but
with todays inventory figures, Oil should be falling. It is probably rising
because of the Goldman cicualar $200 within the next 18 months.
Have not been doing much on the Dow and FTSE, struggling to get a handle where
it is going. Keep reading markets ready for a big fall, but the company results
have not been too disasterous, with the exception of Banks.
Hi Guys, have not been posting lately, but my tuppence worth is that the
markets are begining to fall due to the price of crude.
On that note, I admit to shorting at $122 and $123, this could be suicidal, but
with todays inventory figures, Oil should be falling. It is probably rising
because of the Goldman cicualar $200 within the next 18 months.
Have not been doing much on the Dow and FTSE, struggling to get a handle where
it is going. Keep reading markets ready for a big fall, but the company results
have not been too disasterous, with the exception of Banks.
fibonelli
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,338
- Likes
- 288
i posted the above message on 29 April 2008. The log trendline is currently around 13050. Unless price can comfortably exceed this by >1% on two consecutive closing days then we remain in a bear market rally.
P
postman
No one wants to sell this morning so I see an up day. Any entry below 850 will do me. Back up to 13000.
P
postman
There's 850 on the futures...
P
postman
I'm guessing everyone is in the sun or trading for their life today - no idle chat time.
Now where did I put my money today was it Black or Red....
Now where did I put my money today was it Black or Red....
P
postman
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
Anyone notice any selling of futures today
After two trending days, a ranging day was very likely.
I expected some ranging yesterday, but instead we had a U-turn...
chilltrader
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,296
- Likes
- 115
looks like a big down day today - AIG dropped a bombshell
firewalker99
Legendary member
- Messages
- 6,655
- Likes
- 612
I don't follow him actively, but as there's a lot of talk about his analysis, I somethimes go and have a look. It seems like he said the time window ran out by 22 April first, then he moved it to May 1. Curious about what he's going to say now.
Btw, there are more people who think we'll have new highs this year:
Facts show we're not in a recession or bear market. - MarketWatch
I'm neutral really for the time being. I could argument the bear case, but I've found enough arguments to make for the bull case too...
catracho
Well-known member
- Messages
- 355
- Likes
- 34
I'm neutral really for the time being. I could argument the bear case, but I've found enough arguments to make for the bull case too...
yes neutral seems best for mo...
many mkts look like forming bearish wedges/flags...but until broken uptrend remains
see dow and dax charts below..
crude may be the big factor if it backs off from here could give the bulls some renewed energy...
or a blow off move here may dent the leaders DJT index...
as you said...neutral
Attachments
- Status
