Dow 2007

Just my tuppenny worth but I think pre-trade Monday is always tricky and should be avoided especially for intraday trading. The markets usually settle by 3 pm ( UK time ) imho
 
If you really want to have an insight into to the current situation - cop a load of Greenspan's gobbledegook -

I looked at the data from the last 20 years. Of the last 80 quarters, real GDP declined for five quarters and growth came in below 2% for 22 quarters. This means that economy is close to recession levels for one-quarter of the time.
 
I realise that the majority on here are TAs but for he few FAs, here's an interesting article...

http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/1559/1/

Question: Last week, reports showed that US manufacturing unexpectedly rose in March. However, the Financial Times said that, “The rise in the ISM index is impossible to square with either the regional surveys released over the past few weeks or our medium-term yield-driven model. We think it is quite likely that in their next iterations the ISM will drop sharply.” Do you think the government is deliberately falsifying data on manufacturing to make the economy look stronger than it really is? Could they be doing this in areas as well, such as money supply, inflation, employment, and GDP?

Elaine Meinel Supkis: Do alligators bite? Of course, they lie all the time. Some things were sacred and they didn't lie about them. The M3 data that shows how much money the Fed prints as well as how much is in circulation, etc, just last year, they announced, 'No one is really interested in these numbers and they are too hard to compile.' Like a drunken, gambling spouse declaring there is no need to balance the check books or look into the bank accounts, so it is here. Many people yelled about the M3 numbers being suppressed but to no avail, of course.

Onwards! Since they are lying about basic bank accounting, they have to lie about everything else or people will figure out, something smells rotten in Denmark, DC.
 
linesniffer said:
Hi FW.

What you have stated is worth a lot, imo anyway. The other factor i look at is the Nasdaq, i think that will retest it's highs tomorrow so it may drag the S&P and Dow with it, unless there is divergence.

Do you ever find that if the dax opens up it takes the US futures up with it, basically taking points of the table?

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Useful post. Looking at the Nasdaq though, my personal thought is that it looks a little similar to the Dow at the top end. It looks like bearish divergence with CCI for example, which has also crossed below 100 recently. It appears to be testing the uptrend - see attched. Comments/criticisms welcome.

 
Running to stand still

I've been caught short at inappropriate times. I've been told to trade with the trend, not trade this market both ways, be long etc. Don't tell me that after making heavy losses selling the uptrend last week, I am about to buy a near top!

The irony, if the Dow plummets just as I go long!

Of course, if I had traded it long at every pullback to the EMA as shown on this excellent little chart with the MACD was positive, I'd lose a few tics at the top but that would be more than offset with my nice profits from my early bullishness. However, as I have no profits, I can see me getting rogered again.
 
Slapshot said:
lurkerlurker,

I've used CMC in the past and still do for some charts. What must be remembered your watching CMC's "version" of the market, i.e their price, therefore the indicators are based on their prices.

Can I ask why you're using 150 as the setting for CCI? Are you following the system detailed by Chartman on the KB?
Click to expand...

Hi Slapshot

I am aware that the CMC price does not exactly reflect the underlying. The only free realtime YM quotes I can get are from Yahoo, which I can put in to AIOTrade, but they lag CMC by about 10-15 seconds.

As I point out in the fifth post on my journal, I did attempt to follow Chartman's Dow strategy, but I didn't do very well. Still, this seems to be a recommended CCI setting for the Dow. Do you think it should be altered, and if so why?
 
Hi everyone,

Here is my pennies worth for the next couple of days at least...

According to my Uncle Oscar's two pin reversal bars there is a two day upward movement in the DOW.

In the past couple of times I have traded these they have been spot on. Thank you uncle Oscar ;)

Tomorrow the plan is to watch for a while and go long. SL @ 12290.

I'm thinking with this level of strength 13500 will be tested this week by Wednesday.

Downside is that we may still have fib 23% retrace to 13150 somewhere by end of week.

Prediction for the week is a 200 point rise till midweek and then a big 350 drop.

Good luck everyone.
 

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Atilla said:
Hi everyone,

Here is my pennies worth for the next couple of days at least...

According to my Uncle Oscar's two pin reversal bars there is a two day upward movement in the DOW.

In the past couple of times I have traded these they have been spot on. Thank you uncle Oscar ;)

Tomorrow the plan is to watch for a while and go long. SL @ 12290.

I'm thinking with this level of strength 13500 will be tested this week by Wednesday.

Downside is that we may still have fib 23% retrace to 13150 somewhere by end of week.

Prediction for the week is a 200 point rise till midweek and then a big 350 drop.

Good luck everyone.
Click to expand...

With the greatest respect, why on earth are you considering a long entry at current levels with a stoploss 350 points away? Won't a long be shown to be incorrect around the many strong support levels between here and 13000? Since you seem content with a 350 pip risk, may I ask how where your target is, and how the risk / reward compares.

Furthermore, what timescale are you trading, and how long do you intend to hold the position with the -350 stoploss?

My twopennies - I'm waiting for a retracement to near support levels, followed by a continuation north, where I intend to buy and hold with a SL around 10 pips below local support. That's a maximum SL of around 30 pips, with an upside just over 50. Maybe more longer term.

Am I missing something?

Speaking of which, do you still feel like the horse? Or are you back to wanting to knock of the ES and YM?

Cheers

~LL
 
lurkerlurker said:
With the greatest respect, why on earth are you considering a long entry at current levels with a stoploss 350 points away? Won't a long be shown to be incorrect around the many strong support levels between here and 13000? Since you seem content with a 350 pip risk, may I ask how where your target is, and how the risk / reward compares.

Furthermore, what timescale are you trading, and how long do you intend to hold the position with the -350 stoploss?

My twopennies - I'm waiting for a retracement to near support levels, followed by a continuation north, where I intend to buy and hold with a SL around 10 pips below local support. That's a maximum SL of around 30 pips, with an upside just over 50. Maybe more longer term.

Am I missing something?

Speaking of which, do you still feel like the horse? Or are you back to wanting to knock of the ES and YM?

Cheers

~LL
Click to expand...


Considering it purely based on TA and Oscar's two pin bar reversals. They are good for couple of days or time periods you see them on.

I've circled it for you have another look.

Sorry - SL @ 13290 - 50 pips.

Target @ 13500 ish...

Leave FA out of this and as they say trade what you see.

PS. Do agree DOW is totally over rated but we'll find out by end of week.
 
Atilla said:
Considering it purely based on TA and Oscar's two pin bar reversals. They are good for couple of days or time periods you see them on.

I've circled it for you have another look.

Sorry - SL @ 13290 - 50 pips.

Target @ 13500 ish...

Leave FA out of this and as they say trade what you see.

PS. Do agree DOW is totally over rated but we'll find out by end of week.
Click to expand...

I may be on completely the wrong track here, but aren't pin bars (the two long days you have circled) something to do with the market "lying" or something. So those two bars mean that the market will continue to head up the next few days?

I think I see a similar pattern with two bars earlier in the uptrend, but I could be on the wrong track. I'm bullish anyway - I have been going some more analysis of the markets, and you can find some charts and commentary in my new journal (link in sig)

Good luck tomorrow.

(oh, and I think I am going to go long before the open (if price is within a certain range) with a Guaranteed Stop Order from CMC a few pips below.)
 
firewalker99 said:
...

Depending on the strength of DAX in Monday's AM (however DAX likes to fall in AM sessions...) I think DOW can break the resistance.

Another scenario is that DAX retraces slightly so when US opens it will be on support and we can buy there. I'm definitely looking for longs with Monday or Tuesday a trending day where I'll try to maximise profits by staying in as long as possible!
Click to expand...

Well so far things very predictable... as DAX falling in AM session... drifting till US open and then higher onwards would probably be TOO predictable, but you never know...
 
I dont know about you guys but my new super whizzo system definately favours short !
 
afternoon all,

quick update on my current activity.

Short cable on digital option, expiry at end of today.

current outlook for dow, long in 5min / about to be long on 30min / neautral in 60min.

I am curretnly adapting the way i have been trading due to a massive increase in my work load, i run my own firm (not i.t) and have to trade over a longer time frame now so am switching to digital options.

any experiance with this would be appreciated. cheers
 
Pat494 said:
Might be looking for a bin for it !!
Click to expand...

I was long DAX, took +20 and am again long on DAX now but with a minor position (not feeling as comfortable!)
I have missed the DOW entry as it rose straight out of the box!

Edit: lost 7pts on that second long! Looks like you are calling the shots Pat
 
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