Dow 2007

[hobby]

How pissed am I? I closed a £30pp Dow short on Tuesday evening (having got torched over two sessions)...vindicated yesterday (ie closing the short on Tuesday), but do the maths for today (would have been almost £4500 to the good!) then placed a £10pp Dow short late yesterday evening, but then went & closed it ealry this morning (for a lousy £120)

Next, I had a Dax short running this afternoon (before the tank)....it was £40 in profit so I went to close it (cos it was looking a bit shakey at the time)....'click' ....BOLLOX, I'd only gone left a 'force to open' covering £10 long in my IG deal box, so when I clicked the button, I'd actually opened a Dax long as opposed to closing my short (therefore £20 to place the position...my £40 profit cut in half!), worse still, watched for a spike down then closed/unwound the original short & then waited for a small spike up to close the erroneous long...it didn't come so I closed it for -£20! Therefore no profit from my initil "in profit for £40" Dax trade!

Then like a *complete* bozo I placed a £10pp short at Dow -145 (yes your read that right... I thought it was the big one coming, with capitulation setting in) at about 6.30pm.....then watched it immediately (& I mean immediately) halt & then go 55 points against me in 30 minutes (ie -£600 including spread in THIRTY minutes!). However, I held my nerve and closed it for £20 profit at 20:58hrs. (good call as it goes cos it spiked up about 18 points afterwards...where it remains now). Even though I knew the risk (& it was foolhardy), I just couldn't bear the thought of missing out on the BIG ONE, it was almost as if I'd slipped into another parallel where caution goes to the wind (this aspect of my trading is a real worry!)

Being an uber bear, today has been unbearable (no pun intended) missing out onthe big fall. I was waiting on the normally 'oh so predictable' run at zero from -50ish b4 wanting to place the short, but it more or less just slid all day, trouble is then it's like a ship pulling away from dock...when do you jump (tip, don't wait until the dow is down -145!)

Some days you just can't put a foot right & this was one of those days.

I've made about £250 since yesterday, which I'd normally think agreeable, but I've missed out on thousands so it's hard to see the good in that even!

 

[Atilla]

How pissed am I? I closed a £30pp Dow short on Monday evening (having got torched over two sessions)...vindicated yesterday (ie closing the short on Monday), but do the maths for today (would have been almost £4500 to the good!) then placed a £10pp Dow short late yesterday evening, but then went & closed it ealry this morning (for a lousy £120)

Next, I had a Dax short running this afternoon (before the tank)....it was £40 in profit so I went to close it (cos it was looking a bit shakey at the time)....'click' ....BOLLOX, I'd only gone left a 'force to open' covering £10 long in my IG deal box, so when I clicked the button, I'd actually opened a Dax long as opposed to closing my short (therefore £20 to place the position...my £40 profit cut in half!), worse still, watched for a spike down then closed/unwound the original short & then waited for a small spike up to close the erroneous long...it didn't come so I closed it for -£20! Therefore no profit from my initil "in profit for £40" Dax trade!

Then like a *complete* bozo I placed a £10pp short at Dow -145 (yes your read that right... I thought it was the big one coming, with capitulation setting in) at about 6.30pm.....then watched it immediately (& I mean immediately) halt go 55 points against me in 30 minutes (ie -£600 including spread in THIRTY minutes!). However, I held my nerve and closed it for £20 profit at 20:58hrs. (good call as it goes cos it spiked up about 18 points afterwards...where it remains now). Even though I knew the risk (& it was foolhardy), I just couldn't bear the thought of missing out on the BIG ONE, it was almost as if I'd slipped into another parallel where caution goes to the wind (this aspect of my trading is a real worry!)

Being an uber bear, today has been unbearable (no pun intended) missing out onthe big fall. I was waiting on the normally 'oh so predictable' run at zero from -50ish b4 wanting to place the short, but it more or less just slid all day, trouble is then it's like a ship pulling away from dock...when do you jump (tip, don't wait until the dow is down -145!)

Some days you just can't put a foot right & this was one of those days.

I've made about £250 since yesterday, which I'd normally think agreeable, but I've missed out on thousands so it's hard to see the good in that even!

I've had days like these in the past Hobby. I now make it a rule if I have missed a big move up or down not to step in any way but let the Bollinger Bands narrow and watch for a break out.

Also, if price is outside of the BBs it's a sure sign sooner or later it will pull back according to some Fibonacci retrace. Never try calling tops or bottoms. I've lost count how many SARs have been breached.

Reading your note makes me feel better but deep done I still feel as if I lost 100+ pips bye merely not making it. Twisted greed what can I say. Plays devilish tricks with the mind.

Having said that Gold sank like a brick today and I'm expecting it to sink some more so will be watching that tomorrow.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Hook Shot]

How pissed am I? I closed a £30pp Dow short on Tuesday evening (having got torched over two sessions)...vindicated yesterday (ie closing the short on Tuesday), but do the maths for today (would have been almost £4500 to the good!) then placed a £10pp Dow short late yesterday evening, but then went & closed it ealry this morning (for a lousy £120)

Next, I had a Dax short running this afternoon (before the tank)....it was £40 in profit so I went to close it (cos it was looking a bit shakey at the time)....'click' ....BOLLOX, I'd only gone left a 'force to open' covering £10 long in my IG deal box, so when I clicked the button, I'd actually opened a Dax long as opposed to closing my short (therefore £20 to place the position...my £40 profit cut in half!), worse still, watched for a spike down then closed/unwound the original short & then waited for a small spike up to close the erroneous long...it didn't come so I closed it for -£20! Therefore no profit from my initil "in profit for £40" Dax trade!

Then like a *complete* bozo I placed a £10pp short at Dow -145 (yes your read that right... I thought it was the big one coming, with capitulation setting in) at about 6.30pm.....then watched it immediately (& I mean immediately) halt & then go 55 points against me in 30 minutes (ie -£600 including spread in THIRTY minutes!). However, I held my nerve and closed it for £20 profit at 20:58hrs. (good call as it goes cos it spiked up about 18 points afterwards...where it remains now). Even though I knew the risk (& it was foolhardy), I just couldn't bear the thought of missing out on the BIG ONE, it was almost as if I'd slipped into another parallel where caution goes to the wind (this aspect of my trading is a real worry!)

Being an uber bear, today has been unbearable (no pun intended) missing out onthe big fall. I was waiting on the normally 'oh so predictable' run at zero from -50ish b4 wanting to place the short, but it more or less just slid all day, trouble is then it's like a ship pulling away from dock...when do you jump (tip, don't wait until the dow is down -145!)

Some days you just can't put a foot right & this was one of those days.

I've made about £250 since yesterday, which I'd normally think agreeable, but I've missed out on thousands so it's hard to see the good in that even!

xxxx happens... don't I know it!.
Thanks for sharing Hobby

 

[Hook Shot]

Despite all the fuss we are only down one day and the pattern has been perhaps another down day then back on track by Monday........but we could have 4 down days and still be just a counter trend - I think..

Flipside - I'm hearing parallels with Early May (8th) 2006 when things "turned" big time so will have to wait and see......... Dow 13000-13020 would be my target on continued weakness as this would be ~ 25% retracement and previous swing low

8th was also 55d since march lows - I think some people pay attention to 55 ??

Lets see ?

Ps. Is The Dax Telling us something ??

 

[Atilla]

Despite all the fuss we are only down one day and the pattern has been perhaps another down day then back on track by Monday........but we could have 4 down days and still be just a counter trend - I think..

Flipside - I'm hearing parallels with Early May (8th) 2006 when things "turned" big time so will have to wait and see......... Dow 13000-13020 would be my target on continued weakness as this would be ~ 25% retracement and previous swing low

8th was also 55d since march lows - I think some people pay attention to 55 ??

Lets see ?

Ps. Is The Dax Telling us something ??

Heard on the radio, the Chineese are worried about their stock markets and people participation again. Apparently 5m people bought shares in April alone and that accountancy and valuations were not up to scratch. Some companies are valued at 50 - 60 times earnings. Exceptionally high.

It's based on some expectation share values will keep going up as everybody knows they do. DOW lead on... :cheesy:

 

[Hook Shot]

Atilla - The Chinese Bubble will go the way of all bubbles .... timing the end is hazardous.. but best to keep an eye on chinese stox in US like China Life perhaps or even play Hang Seng...

Goldman's are getting edgy on china so we know we have not got long ..... chart below looks like crash material possibly with lower high in prospect.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LFC:US
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bill McLaren Commentary

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/132/1/May-11-2007-CNBC-REPORT/Page1.html

 

[Atilla]

Atilla - The Chinese Bubble will go the way of all bubbles .... timing the end is hazardous.. but best to keep an eye on chinese stox in US like China Life perhaps or even play Hang Seng...

Goldman's are getting edgy on china so we know we have not got long ..... chart below looks like crash material possibly with lower high in prospect.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=LFC:US
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bill McLaren Commentary

http://www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/132/1/May-11-2007-CNBC-REPORT/Page1.html

Interesting... One to watch very carefuly.

I've went long at 13246 expecting a bounce this morning and lost -15 pips on the DOW.

Reversed position and now I'm short from 13214. Pulled back some.

Watching Gold and Oil and gold seems to be making some recovery but I think it's a pull back to BBands before another drop. However, not decided. Oil is pretty steady at $60+ so ride the waves I suppose.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Hook Shot]

Interesting... One to watch very carefuly.

I've went long at 13246 expecting a bounce this morning and lost -15 pips on the DOW.

Good luck everyone.

I'm not sure at the mo but if I was gonna trade sthg for fast money dax looks the one since Dow isn't moving down (yet). Dax/Ftse are down 4d = normal counter trend pbk so there is potential if I'm careful :cheesy:

Good Luck

 

[lurkerlurker]

Greed and Loss

Tell me. I've given back all my profits I had made since I started this full time again three weeks ago. Additionally, I've eaten into my seed capital by £170. (I know, chickenfeed to £30pp stakes -but painful to me as I am just starting - at least I'm not in the trap of throwing half my savings at it because "you can't trade with an account less than X"). Reasonable losses compared to everything else, but sore nonetheless.

Sad days.

Oh, and that short that I closed out at a £300 loss on Monday would be worth £1500 now. (thought I'd bring that up since we're talking traders remorse).

Oh, and "£30pp" - hobby, aren't you better trading the actual YM at those stakes?

Where is the Dow going today? I was really busy this morning, and I am in great pain right now - I missed a buy at 13200! Oh well, I'll see where it goes later. See if I can at least absorb half of yesterday's losses today. Small stake size, good money management.

I'm learning - I was very tempted to average down a long yesterday (as I mentioned in my post) - but I didn't do it!

 

[hornblower]

Tell me. I've given back all my profits I had made since I started this full time again three weeks ago. Additionally, I've eaten into my seed capital by £170. (I know, chickenfeed to £30pp stakes -but painful to me as I am just starting - at least I'm not in the trap of throwing half my savings at it because "you can't trade with an account less than X"). Reasonable losses compared to everything else, but sore nonetheless.

Sad days.

Oh, and that short that I closed out at a £300 loss on Monday would be worth £1500 now. (thought I'd bring that up since we're talking traders remorse).

Oh, and "£30pp" - hobby, aren't you better trading the actual YM at those stakes?

you are trading for either a big win or a big loss
and thats not what trading is a about
its winning consistently
trade longer time frames
and smaller stakes

 

[Atilla]

I'm not sure at the mo but if I was gonna trade sthg for fast money dax looks the one since Dow isn't moving down (yet). Dax/Ftse are down 4d = normal counter trend pbk so there is potential if I'm careful :cheesy:

Good Luck

Ok I'm out -42 pips loss. Will watch rest of day.

My view is now we have some retrace going on and depending on whether it is 23% or 61% will determine strength of support. I think DOW will touch 13260 for sure and I'm not prepared to risk any more pips. Obviously first call may have been the better one.

Looked at the DAX but I think on the hourly charts there is some pull back there too. Might need to follow a while to gauge decent entry point.

Need to do some real work

 

[lurkerlurker]

you are trading for either a big win or a big loss
and thats not what trading is a about
its winning consistently
trade longer time frames
and smaller stakes

Yes, I'm getting it all wrong. I don't want to take high risks, and I have taken some trades which in hindsight were stupid gambles. But I also need to make enough doing it to justify my time...

 

[Pat494]

Tough day yesterday

Remember Icarus - that "bubble and squeak" guy with wings ?

 

[Pat494]

From a fundamental view the Fed is faced with the problem of a weakening economy, but a need to raise rates to curb inflation.
Will Benny dither or do something ?

 

[Atilla]

From a fundamental view the Fed is faced with the problem of a weakening economy, but a need to raise rates to curb inflation.
Will Benny dither or do something ?

Stagnation. Bang bang bang! Stagnation...

Coming very soon to a market near you :cheesy:

Well good to see it touch 13260. Was pretty sure (75%) about that one. Having burnt my self in the morning didn't want to risk 20 pips further loss taking me beyond my 50 daily limit.

Gold is still holding up at 668 and so is oil. I'm none the wiser.

Well here is my next prediction if it doesn't break 13270 (38% fib retrace) it's droping back right down to 13200.

I may participate but will have another look near 3:30 GMT.

 

[Pat494]

I guess Dinos and Fw were the guys winning yesterday even in the difficult conditions.
Wherefore art thou chaps ?????????
Looks like oscillations to me, so better shorten the indicators if one wants to take a chance !

 

[Kinger]

Yes, I'm getting it all wrong. I don't want to take high risks, and I have taken some trades which in hindsight were stupid gambles. But I also need to make enough doing it to justify my time...

Hi Lurker, are you doing this full time now or whilst doing other paid work ?
if you don't mind my asking ..: )

You sound exactly like me earlier this year ... I went from day trading, to EOD and now I'm sort of a week trader, means I have alot more time to do other things and I'm making money with no sleepless nights or edgyness

I work in IT so its ok for me to flip back and forth between my job and this. You'll be suprised the amount of people I've met who do this and IT or are in the army !

 

[Atilla]

Hi Lurker, are you doing this full time now or whilst doing other paid work ?
if you don't mind my asking ..: )

You sound exactly like me earlier this year ... I went from day trading, to EOD and now I'm sort of a week trader, means I have alot more time to do other things and I'm making money with no sleepless nights or edgyness

I work in IT so its ok for me to flip back and forth between my job and this. You'll be suprised the amount of people I've met who do this and IT or are in the army !

Do you think its because a lot of guys in IT (me included) work in the City financial sector and get the bug or is it sort of a DNA gene thing?

Interesting indeed

 

[Kinger]

Well we create software for callcentres, it includes charts and real-time stats etc. And I originally wanted to create a kind of wallboard that looked similar to the Bloomberg channel. I then got talking to some guys on the calling floor who not only take calls from the general public for their client but also watch a screen with then live quotes on cmc. When I saw how much they we're making it got me hooked ! These guys where in prime position to not only make a living as a cellcentre operative but on the market too.

 

[firewalker99]

I guess Dinos and Fw were the guys winning yesterday even in the difficult conditions.
Wherefore art thou chaps ?????????
Looks like oscillations to me, so better shorten the indicators if one wants to take a chance !

We are here! Well I am
Waiting till we get out of this chop... prefer the upside!