Dow 2007

[lurkerlurker]

whats relevant on here is posts that improve each others skills and equity,please save all this quarrelling for the trash can

I second that!

 

[ammo]

last post

whats relevant on here is posts that improve each others skills and equity,please save all this quarrelling for the trash can

i did this once before and everyone thought it was a personal attack on racer,FW i clicked reply on your post but i was really talking about the last 3 pages of threads about 21 and how it has nothing to do with trading and the insult/doubting threads are just as annoying as the original poster they are whining about

 

[Mrpips]

We might as well settle this once and for all...

Now be quiet.

Can I just ask if that's real money or a play account? If it's real money that you've earned in the last few months from virtually nothing (I'm assuming here, I don't know how much you started with) then that's amazing understanding, or lots of luck. That in itself is quite dangerous. You may have been gambling big stakes to get there that quickly? Therefore you could lose that amount and then some, in half the time.

All this bravado and testosterone does nothing for me. At the end of the day the only person we answer to is ourselves when we win or lose. And I suppose the bank manager :cheesy:

Anyway fair play to you and all the best for the future. Let's just hope you can get the same results year in year out. Don't think this is a personal attack, it's not.

Now let's get back to the matter in hand... talking about trading the DOW.

 

[lurkerlurker]

Can I just ask if that's real money or a play account? If it's real money that you've earned in the last few months from virtually nothing (I'm assuming here, I don't know how much you started with) then that's amazing understanding, or lots of luck. That in itself is quite dangerous. You may have been gambling big stakes to get there that quickly? Therefore you could lose that amount and then some, in half the time.

I'm sure you won't mind me stepping into the breach here - Kevin isn't all that active on T2W, and I suspect he will be taking some time away from this thread in light of some of the above comments.

It isn't a play account, it is real money. He didn't start with nothing, however the profits are very impressive nevertheless. We will assume amazing understanding, because given his trade frequency and lot size luck can't be a factor - statistically he'd have blown up long before now if he didn't have an edge.

I don't believe he is taking disproportionate risk to his account size. If you trade the ES on a $400k account, with a maximum risk of two points for example, how many lots can you safely trade? That is $100 risk per contract, plus commissions and slippage. Risking 1% of the account, that gives you $4k per trade, or 40 contracts. 40 contracts is $2000 per full point. To make $100k you need 50 full ES points. (or 500 YM points). Taking 50 YM pips or 5 full ES points a week at that size gets you $100k in 10 weeks, without taking excess risk.

 

[jkplay]

Back To The Dow

Im bullish

The extreme measures the central banks have resorted too clearly shows that there is something wrong in the markets. The fact that they have come together and addressed the liquidy issue is fundamentally a very positive move in my view.

This extreme action spurred on an extreme reaction and taking a step back makes me think we will be in very positive territory towards the end of the week/year. Ontop of that, although we didn't see a 50bhp cut we did still get a cut and I think up is where we are heading

With all the liquidity being added and the extreme economic climate TA is not the best way to trade for now in my honest opinion.

Where do you think we will end the year from here? Up or down?

JK

 

[karmit]

Im bullish

The extreme measures the central banks have resorted too clearly shows that there is something wrong in the markets. The fact that they have come together and addressed the liquidy issue is fundamentally a very positive move in my view.

This extreme action spurred on an extreme reaction and taking a step back makes me think we will be in very positive territory towards the end of the week/year. Ontop of that, although we didn't see a 50bhp cut we did still get a cut and I think up is where we are heading

With all the liquidity being added and the extreme economic climate TA is not the best way to trade for now in my honest opinion.

Where do you think we will end the year from here? Up or down?

JK

hmm.. normally this time one would have looked out for a Santa rally... but nothing seems to have materialised - yet.

Not sure about how bullish the outlook really is. The markets were
quite a way up before subprime etc came forth. Last weeks US
inflation reading also didn't look too promising for further rate cuts.

The banks are coming out with results and no one knows what they are hiding in the closet probably nothing more sinister than what we have already heard.. but will help to see.

Personally - I would stick to short time frames if I do go long and look to exit quickly as well.

On the other hand, I feel it will be a nice time to work on analysing which stocks to ramp up on the "buy and hold" side of things i.e ISA's etc.

 

[jkplay]

hmm.. normally this time one would have looked out for a Santa rally... but nothing seems to have materialised - yet.

Not sure about how bullish the outlook really is. The markets were
quite a way up before subprime etc came forth. Last weeks US
inflation reading also didn't look too promising for further rate cuts.

The banks are coming out with results and no one knows what they are hiding in the closet probably nothing more sinister than what we have already heard.. but will help to see.

Personally - I would stick to short time frames if I do go long and look to exit quickly as well.

On the other hand, I feel it will be a nice time to work on analysing which stocks to ramp up on the "buy and hold" side of things i.e ISA's etc.

I have an order to buy £8pp at 13370 with a stop at 12950. This is a big trade for me but I really do feel we have heard all of the bad news from the banks, we have seen the central banks unite and now we have seen a series of rate cuts.

In the short term I think it will be choppy but can't see us falling sub 13000 with all the 'help' the markets seem to be getting, unless something extreme happens. I do think the worst is now behind us.

This is a position I initially plan to hold for around a month with a target price of 14200 and will be moving my stop up 200 points as we hit 13650, 13850 and 14000 respectively.

A purely fundamental trade guy's, i'll keep you posted.

JK

 

[dc2000]

I have an order to buy £8pp at 13370 with a stop at 12950. This is a big trade for me but I really do feel we have heard all of the bad news from the banks, we have seen the central banks unite and now we have seen a series of rate cuts.

In the short term I think it will be choppy but can't see us falling sub 13000 with all the 'help' the markets seem to be getting, unless something extreme happens. I do think the worst is now behind us.

This is a position I initially plan to hold for around a month with a target price of 14200 and will be moving my stop up 200 points as we hit 13650, 13850 and 14000 respectively.

A purely fundamental trade guy's, i'll keep you posted.

JK

sounds like a good plan to me, Im looking to be long around the 247 area (cash price) a late day entry would be spot on not looking for too much 630 area will be fine then time for Christmas, also looking for long on the FTSE from early doors 8:30-8:45am


Kevin21 what year did you do the 355 challenge?

 

[jkplay]

sounds like a good plan to me, Im looking to be long around the 247 area (cash price) a late day entry would be spot on not looking for too much 630 area will be fine then time for Christmas, also looking for long on the FTSE from early doors 8:30-8:45am

Thank you, I hope it works out.

I have semi-hedged my exposure by buying JPY against a basket of currencies and I plan to exit that position once we see the dow trading the sunny side of 13550.

My JPY position equates to just over half of my dow exposure and I will be watching closely over the coming days to see how things shape up. I think the initial reaction on Monday and Tuesday, after the weekend research, could really set the theme for the coming week.

Should we see a really negative reaction (below 13200), contrary to my view, then I will be buying alot more YEN to make my exposure neutral for the ride.

We are all looking for a sense of direction after Wednesday's shake up - and I refuse to believe down is the right one.

I may well be eating my words in Jan though, will wait and see.

JK

 

[Atilla]

The DOW according to Garp - TA & FA

Hi guys,

Here are my views on the DOW...

Weekly charts showing the formation of H&S in development. I have the neckline at 12800ish. Breach of this follow by failure to break back up will imply the DOW falling to 11680 regions which is just perfectly on the Fib 61% retrace. MAs and price confirm move but oscillators out of synch. However, oscillators never too good with long term charts imo.

Daily charts confirm the down trend convincingly. All indicators showing sells imo. Breach of 13250 will confirm the move to reteste 13000 levels for sure.

On the 4 hour charts I see another H&S formation which complements the daily charts short term trend. Once again failure to break above the neckline at 13430 regions will imply a retest of 13000 imo.

I thought this might have happened last week but there is the seasonal factor trying to prop up the market. Those poor pension fund managers, what will they do without their bonuses.

On a FA level, coupled with the sub-prime & banking crises, the pension crises is likely to raise it's head very soon. Stagnation is coming back to haunt us too. Inflationary pressures coupled with lowering interest rates... Things can only get a lot worse. If I was a buy to let landlord right now I would be looking at halving my risk exposure and get rid of 50% of my least profitable properties. Nice time to manage portfolio. Hence, things are likely to get a lot worse before better.

Well there is my neck on the guilloteane... Bring on the festive cheers... Aye or naye???? :cheesy:

Wishing you all a merry xmas and prosperous trading everyone...

 

[postman]

Me and my moving averages.

I am taking a little profit at this point (340) still have another position I will hold over the weekend.

Given a low volume Santa rally we could see the 20 day ma cross the 50 day ma within the next 6 trading days (at around 13440). This would be a major bullish signal.

Of course if you printed this off it could be better-used as toilet paper on Tuesday night if the Dow doesn’t close above 13320 that day.

I will be closing my remaining short early Monday looking to go long at anything under 250, and taking a second long late Tuesday if I’m not printing this off and heading for the …

 

[Atilla]

Given a low volume Santa rally we could see the 20 day ma cross the 50 day ma within the next 6 trading days (at around 13440). This would be a major bullish signal.

Of course if you printed this off it could be better-used as toilet paper on Tuesday night if the Dow doesn’t close above 13320 that day.

I will be closing my remaining short early Monday looking to go long at anything under 250, and taking a second long late Tuesday if I’m not printing this off and heading for the …

Here is another I prepared couple of weeks ago - a month even... Heading in the right direction. This gives you a long 20 year picture...

I make 13440 one of the neck lines so yes breach of 13500 to the upside likely to be bullish. However, overall unless 13800 is broken to the upside I'd still have bearish tendencies. I appreciate there are good many 00 pips there but I'll be looking for short opportunities only until then.

 

[postman]

I'm not greedy - closing short here at 280 for an extra 60 pips with a view to going long later today.

 

[Dinos]

Guys, still seems to be to much slanging still going on here, I was prepared to come back and post some calls, not now. I'm out of here now, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all.

I'll see what things are like after the new year, to see whether I will come back

 

[Pat494]

Well that's a shame !!
Dinos is probably the best real time picker of positions around and posts real time trades too.
Nobody gives a toss who said what, to whom and when so why should you ?

Its part of the game to blow off a bit now and again

All for the money and money for all

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

Here are my views on the DOW...

Daily charts confirm the down trend convincingly. All indicators showing sells imo. Breach of 13250 will confirm the move to reteste 13000 levels for sure.

On the 4 hour charts I see another H&S formation which complements the daily charts short term trend. Once again failure to break above the neckline at 13430 regions will imply a retest of 13000 imo.

Hi everyone,

Gosh touching the significant 13250 already. I think other members had commented on this significant number.

Well the 4 hour and daily charts playing out to a T. I'd expect a bounce to 13400s given seasonal factors and likely low volume but beware, if 13250 is broken down then 13000 is on my sites.

Still flat but feeling tempted...

Any views ???

 

[ammo]

Hi everyone,

Gosh touching the significant 13250 already. I think other members had commented on this significant number.

Well the 4 hour and daily charts playing out to a T. I'd expect a bounce to 13400s given seasonal factors and likely low volume but beware, if 13250 is broken down then 13000 is on my sites.

Still flat but feeling tempted...

Any views ???

im not a candle trader but the last 2 rallys tis morning,didnt take ou the candle tops representing the top of the beginning of the downmove,13406 down to 13369,upto396,ten tiks shrt,then down 345,then upto 384,12 tiks shrt got flat spus at 71 and thinkin about shrtng again ,

 

[lurkerlurker]

Dow Setup

I've set up a H1 YM chart which covers the 24 hours globex session, and a M5 YM chart from 14:30-21:00. Further, I've market what I think may be relevant S/R levels on the hourly chart (however this is more difficult to do on a new contract when there is limited historical data) and will be watching how price reacts to that during the day. Also, time and sales appears. I've been backtesting an interesting system, and the first quarter full results appear in my journal.

13344 low of day on globex. Market closed 13428 on Friday at the 9PM close, so we are looking to open the day with a gap down of around 30 points or so. As it is a Monday, I won't be playing a gap fill trade, however I'll keep an eye on those levels to see how price reacts. Premarket volume ---------

Looking to the longer term charts (and hence cash prices), 13228 seems a significant long term level, in addition to the significance highlighted by the double bar low there on the daily charts. Will be watching that level for signs of early direction. It appears the first major resistance is at the 415.

Not too sure how today will turn out just yet - will be back to look in at the open. Will be watching how price reacts to those levels.

 

[postman]

I'm in at 248

 

[Dinos]

Guys/gals, I said earlier I wasn't go to post, I have read and thought about the comments, and on reflection I agree with the those thoughts, so I'll be around and chip in as and when