shortorlong
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same old same old....
how's it going Kevin21?, we're still here, like ferrets in a bag.Have you come back for help?
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how's it going Kevin21?, we're still here, like ferrets in a bag.Have you come back for help?
Have you come back for help?
Help....Don't be silly....Kev is currently floating off the Bahamas in his yacht trading via his Sat Phone...Just think he was S/Betting £1 a point 6 months ago.....WOW Mind Blowing....
Kevin21
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Nah not here for help lol. Got pm off FW asking how tricks were, but after writing a nice long reply my connection went down (isp having dns issues) and i lost it all....
You'd be surpised what can happen in 6 months... Anyway, i see you're still not exactly setting the world on fire, after all you're still here....
Here's a tip, buy RBG8 and sell RBJ8...
Don't say i don't say i didn't call it Also another tip, don't bother we some pointless reply like the one above. Just makes you look like a tool...
You'd be surpised what can happen in 6 months... Anyway, i see you're still not exactly setting the world on fire, after all you're still here....
Here's a tip, buy RBG8 and sell RBJ8...
Don't say i don't say i didn't call it
Also another tip, don't bother we some pointless reply like the one above. Just makes you look like a tool...shortorlong
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Gasoline? I've been buying that like there's no tomorrow and the price keeps going up. Unfortunately I then burn it in my car
what's the rational behind your call?
shortorlong
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Well, I can understand the concept that the price of different dated contracts on the same commodity would converge and diverge, but I haven't studied it .. first I must conquer the indices using spread betting then .. the world
good luck Kevin21 .. not that you need it .. if you've any spare I'll take it off your hands
luck that is
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Kevin21
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lurkerlurker
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Dow Strategies
I've not dropped in very much recently - quite busy, and also leaving this market alone to trade FX. However, I am still working on a few Dow strategies on paper which I will start trading when I get a futures account.
Anyway, I'm looking at a few systems I have been working on. They are all deceptively simple, and strangely enough appear to be profitable!
Opening Range Breakout
Nothing new here. 5m chart. Bracket the high and the low from the first 3 bars - 15 minute breakout. A trade is triggered if one of the 5m bars closes outside the opening range before 5PM GMT. A stoploss is placed one tick from the other side of the opening break. Stop is trailed according to price action, but I'm also working on fixed targets, targets based on volatility, and targets based on a percentage of the opening range.
Opening Gap Fill
Nothing new here either. I have been looking at things like premarket volume, A/D, the PCR, etc when deciding if a gap might be filled. This only seems to work Tuesday-Friday. Price action should be considered when entering a trade in the direction of a possible gap fill - the opening 15 minutes will rarely be the best time to put on a position, and small gaps usually fill within this time and don't have the right risk:reward. I am still to quantify which gaps to take based on volatility and gap size, and where exactly to put on or add to a position.
Firewalker's System
Discussed elsewhere on this thread and my journal. Trades from this system are pretty good, but more discretion is required when taking signals. I still need to learn more PV analysis before I can properly backtest this, and I need to formalise the discretionary element as much as possible.
Matching Signals
I've noticed that some of the better trades combine signals from the above. For example a bearish opening range breakout just off the previous days high when price has gapped up on low premarket volume - this combines entries from all three of the above systems. The added confluence appears to provide a higher probability trade.
A few thoughts though. When I go back to Dow trading, I'll need a DA broker as doing more than 1 trade per day in the SB firms is not conducive to profits, especially for lower timeframes. I'm doing quite well on the FX, but I'd like to get back to the Dow sometime. I suppose if pushed I could test this in the bucket shops for forward testing, but it would be better to go direct access. In terms of backtesting, I need to be more formal about my entries and exits. I need to thoroughly look at exits in particular, and whether to use fixed targets, trailing stops, or discretionary exits. This will have a great bearing on final P&L. I can't trade multiple lots from the outset, so I'll need to pick an exit technique and stick to it.
Further, I'll need to do quite a bit of backtesting to get confidence about expectancy and risk/reward. Does anyone know of any software which could automate this? It seems that a rule such as "buy when a 5m bar closes above the high of the first 3 bars" and "place a stop at the low of the first 3 bars" could be programmed into a computer, but I'm not terribly sure how. I don't want to go through 9 months of data by hand and using a spreadsheet, but I will if that is what it takes (hopefully I can find enough historical data - does anyone know how to do continuous contracts in NinjaTrader?)
Suggestions and feedback appreciated. How many people here use similar methods to trade? I only want to use price and volume, and strategies similar to the above. I know there are some who use indicators to make pips on the Dow, but that isn't for me.
Better run - I've still got to respond to a sea of PMs - I've been looking at charts all day.
I've not dropped in very much recently - quite busy, and also leaving this market alone to trade FX. However, I am still working on a few Dow strategies on paper which I will start trading when I get a futures account.
Anyway, I'm looking at a few systems I have been working on. They are all deceptively simple, and strangely enough appear to be profitable!
Opening Range Breakout
Nothing new here. 5m chart. Bracket the high and the low from the first 3 bars - 15 minute breakout. A trade is triggered if one of the 5m bars closes outside the opening range before 5PM GMT. A stoploss is placed one tick from the other side of the opening break. Stop is trailed according to price action, but I'm also working on fixed targets, targets based on volatility, and targets based on a percentage of the opening range.
Opening Gap Fill
Nothing new here either. I have been looking at things like premarket volume, A/D, the PCR, etc when deciding if a gap might be filled. This only seems to work Tuesday-Friday. Price action should be considered when entering a trade in the direction of a possible gap fill - the opening 15 minutes will rarely be the best time to put on a position, and small gaps usually fill within this time and don't have the right risk:reward. I am still to quantify which gaps to take based on volatility and gap size, and where exactly to put on or add to a position.
Firewalker's System
Discussed elsewhere on this thread and my journal. Trades from this system are pretty good, but more discretion is required when taking signals. I still need to learn more PV analysis before I can properly backtest this, and I need to formalise the discretionary element as much as possible.
Matching Signals
I've noticed that some of the better trades combine signals from the above. For example a bearish opening range breakout just off the previous days high when price has gapped up on low premarket volume - this combines entries from all three of the above systems. The added confluence appears to provide a higher probability trade.
A few thoughts though. When I go back to Dow trading, I'll need a DA broker as doing more than 1 trade per day in the SB firms is not conducive to profits, especially for lower timeframes. I'm doing quite well on the FX, but I'd like to get back to the Dow sometime. I suppose if pushed I could test this in the bucket shops for forward testing, but it would be better to go direct access. In terms of backtesting, I need to be more formal about my entries and exits. I need to thoroughly look at exits in particular, and whether to use fixed targets, trailing stops, or discretionary exits. This will have a great bearing on final P&L. I can't trade multiple lots from the outset, so I'll need to pick an exit technique and stick to it.
Further, I'll need to do quite a bit of backtesting to get confidence about expectancy and risk/reward. Does anyone know of any software which could automate this? It seems that a rule such as "buy when a 5m bar closes above the high of the first 3 bars" and "place a stop at the low of the first 3 bars" could be programmed into a computer, but I'm not terribly sure how. I don't want to go through 9 months of data by hand and using a spreadsheet, but I will if that is what it takes (hopefully I can find enough historical data - does anyone know how to do continuous contracts in NinjaTrader?)
Suggestions and feedback appreciated. How many people here use similar methods to trade? I only want to use price and volume, and strategies similar to the above. I know there are some who use indicators to make pips on the Dow, but that isn't for me.
Better run - I've still got to respond to a sea of PMs - I've been looking at charts all day.
firewalker99
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same old same old....
I'll probably get a lot of reactions for this post, but the hell with it. I'm going to say it anyway. Those who can't stand the heat, shouldn't be in the kitchen. I think what's Kevin trying to say it that most people haven't changed or won't ever change. Remember when he posted his points, most of us couldn't believe he managed to take so much points out of the market.
At first, I was sceptical of Kevin21 too, especially since when he first joined T2W he seemed to be looking for advice and guidance. After a while he managed to squeeze a lot of points out of the market on a daily basis - probably a whole lot more than most of us managed to do so. That caused some friction and yes I was amongst the critics too at first, but the nature of Kevin's replies has made me realize he does know what he's talking about. By putting things into a context, it also became clear that the most of his points were from a particulary volatile market. By then however, the damage had been done and the majority already convicted Kevin as a fraud. A man should never be ashamed to own he has been in the wrong, which is but saying, in other words, that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
There are the obvious trolls who like to declare how they made "450 points in each direction over the last couple of days", with only hindsight to support them. Then there are those who think they can predict what's going to happen next and manage to close out every trade with a profit, even if it takes them a year (no stops remember). And finally, there's another category of people who have no hidden agenda but like to share their knowledge, experience and positions. I can understand how some people find it difficult to distinguish in which category a certain member belongs. However, it's amazing how the last category receives the majority of the flame posts and smart aleck comments from those people who have yet to gain any respect but already feel like they're on top of everybody else.
Back on topic, having a mentor probably helped Kevin progress considerably faster than most of us did, and I think he's very lucky to have somebody like that. But should we instead of envying him or criticizing him, not turn to ourselves? Failure to reach a similar level of success as somebody else can cause emotional pain and a lot of frustration. All the Ferrari talk probably put things in a wrong perspective. Let's face it, when we see other people realizing their dreams while we remain stuck it can cause some aggravation.
If anything, last couple of weeks have shown how childish some people can behave in the face of adversity. When their trade goes wrong, they will deny all accountability, blame it on the change in volatility, say their timing was off, brazenly declare how other people "misinterpreted" their calls, etc, etc. Taking responsibility for one's actions requires humility and being anonymous on a public board, means ego get's the upperhand most of the time. It's never been different and it never will. The only thing I can do, is feel sorry for them (come to think of it, I don't).
For Kevin21 however, I have a lot of respect, because he is amongst the few people who managed to take the path less traveled by, and had the luxury of having somebody to walk along him. No doubt others have succeeded where he has, but let's not kid ourselves, it took most of us a whole lot more time than him. Should it be surprising then, that we doubt his credibility? If anything, should it be surprising that members who've been here far longer than me, claim it's impossible that anybody makes consistent profits in their first year? Accusing me of fantasy trading because before I joined here - July 2006 - I didn't even know it was possible to sell short? Progress can be made. And fast. It only takes hard work, and a lot of it.
For all those newbies out here, I wish you good luck on trying to filter out the rubbish from the reality. It's not easy - but I promise you - once you do, it will be most rewarding.
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new_trader
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What you’ve written here is nothing but a smokescreen. The only thing I've noticed about you is your inability to stick to anything. If someone makes money trading Oil you will suddenly decide to trade commodities. If someone makes money trading FX, you will decide to trade FX because commodities are too hard. You swore off the DOW because indices were too hard and now you are back again because somebody else is making money trading the DOW. You don't actually want to do the hard work yourself, what you want is someone to give you a ready made system.
I hope you appreciate my feedback.
Hi FW,
Thanks for the PM. I will just state for the record that:
I have no problem with people making cash at all. I have seen you call trades and trade (not through T2W) and I am sure you are making nice cash along with a few others on here. I know Dinos has made a lot of money and have I had any kind of bad attitude with either of you ?? I hope not
I do have a problem with someone who really fancies themselves as the next George Soros and purports an image suggesting that he is making $$$$$ without offering any proof. Has Kevin21 EVER Made a live call ? All I have ever seen is....just made 75 points on the dow.....Made 1000 points on MBIB today.
On top of that their ability to tell tall stories appears to know no bounds and they are extremely arrogant to other members of T2W with no cause.
There is some kind of statement there, but I could knock that up on notepad in all of 30 seconds.
Let's look at the evidence......
Kevin21 has made claim to being homeless, driving half a season in the Ferrari Challenge Cup, Joining the marines, Dealing in Top End Vehicles...seriously the list is endless......now all of a sudden he is a $$$$ trader. The amount of claims and stories he has told...if you could be bothered to trawl through all his posts are actually unbelievable...he should write a book for sure.
At the end of August this year he is asking questions basic questions then 3.5 months later he has over $400k....believe it if you like....I for one don't and am sure to get a barrage of bad reps for my "bad attitude" well to be honest I'm not really too bothered about that. My final post on the subject.
firewalker99
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No, you've always been polite and that's why I have no problem with you either ceyda, but I hope you understand where I'm coming from. Let it be clear that I also respect the opinion of those who agree with ceydababy. You won't get any flame posts or insults from me, I am always open to the possibility of being wrong.
There is a fine line that separates those who are the real deal and those who appear to do. Sometimes it's hard to see which side one is on. Perhaps we'll never know. On these boards we might all live out our second personality who will tell
Some people might even be deliberately tricking other people into taking wrong trades because they have a hidden agenda which might not be so obvious to some. You might tell me I'm being paranoid, and I'll say no more except that sometimes reality is more unbelievable than fiction.In the past there have been other people who did make live calls but were still accused of being a fake. I have made this week several live entries, exits, stops & target calls which all were real live positions (including one loss which I'm - unlike others - not afraid to admit), but as you know some people will still accuse others of cheating or go like "where did you post them, I didn't see them". You could put a pink elephant in front of these guys and they'd still argue that pink elephant's don't exist.
Kevin might not have been so tactful in some of his posts, and we will all have our reasons to trust or distrust one another. To me, it doesn't matter whether he has driven one, two, or ten Ferrari's or whether he has a 6 figure account next to his name or not. For all I know he coùld be the next Soros. Or not
But what he does have is a mentor who's knowledge probably blows us all away. But I understand where you're coming from, we've seen the likes of Kevin who are nothing but a joke come and go around T2W. So no hard feelings here, and I respect your opinion. As a sidenote, Jeff Williams, a 19-year old from the United States, won the European Poker Tournament in 2006, beating all the big guns. He took home with him EUR 900000 and left a whole lot of people in amazement behind. The total buy-in he paid was $41.
Atilla
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Hi Kevin,
I share ceydababy's views and doubts but happy to go along with you giving you the benefit of the doubt. This is partially to do with what Firewalker has posted that I'd expect my life is pretty normal and low level with a family and two kids average job. Why should I expect others to be like me. No reason or justification at all. Having said that I am happy and content with my lot and a Ferrari would be the last car I'd buy even if I was a multi-millionaire.
However, I would say my views and doubts are my own short comings rather than yours and I do enjoy reading your bloggs.
If I may suggest with £200,000 why not have and enjoy your ambition now as I'm sure you can pickup a decent Ferrari for half that price and still participate in trading... :idea:
Festive greetings and prosperous trading to all...
Kevin21
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You've put some spin on that on all....
Well first of all i think it's pretty sad that you haven't actually got anything else better to do than to read through all the posts i've ever made, but like i say you've not exactly told it straight.
Yeah in various topics that have come up, that haven't been about trading, i have posted, but lets put it straight.
1. Being Homeless - i was when i was around 17 for a short while, but it was just me due to... lets say relationship friction with my old man, and wasn't an overall situation for my family. Just me.
2. The marines - i never said i was a marine or anything like it. I said in context to the topic of discussion that i have considered it as an alternative path career wise, and i still do think about it time to time.
3. Dealing top end cars - once again, i never said i dealt top end cars. If i remeber correctly the topic of discussion was other areas of business that one would like to get invloved in. I expressed that one day, if i had the opportunity and resources, i'd like to have a small dealership dealing in top end cars, as i'm interested in cars.
Like i say, you completely put your own spin on that, and it really is sad and pathetic. Also you asked for me to post proof, so i thought, if he's calling my bluff, then i'll call him back. I posted proof, and surprise surprise there you are going 'it's a fake' and 'he's done that in notepad' or some crap along them lines.
As far as i'm aware, i think pdf statements sent to you by your broker are locked, hence why i had to take a screen shot of it. Why would they send you statements that you can just edit? I think that would be illegal on their behalf... You wouldn't know that tho, with only having a paper trading account or a SB account...
At the end of they day it just comes down to some people just not being able to stand up and say well done mate. If you're like this in the rest of your life, then the world must be one lonely and bitter place for you.
Instead of acting a complete *****, you could of just said, nice one mate. We could of had a bit of banter, found we're on the same wave length and shared some ideas on what we do, and both walked away with a new prospective.... Your loss mate, not mine.
Someone like FW, has never acted like an idiot towards me and has some good banter, and i'm happy to share ideas with him, and help him out where i can. Being a sound person will take you far in my opinion, and that's probably why i've been lucky enough to have people help me along my way. When i first by chance met my mentor, if i acted like a tool, like you, i'd probably still be on these forums everyday comparing MA settings with you...
At the end of the day i don't really care if you believe me of not. I just think it's a shame that childish ego's will hinder this community. As soon as someone because successful at trading, they then get burnt at the stake. How are the rest of you ever gonna learn anything, if you're pushing away the people with the knowledge away?
Anyway, not my problem...
Take care.
lurkerlurker
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I'm sticking to what I am currently trading. If you look at my posts on my journal and elsewhere, you will see that I have not deviated from my forex strategy since I started trading it at the beginning of November. I have stayed on the higher timeframes, and taken entries and exits according to the plan. The market has rewarded me with some pips. However, it has always been my intention to go back to Dow trading when I can develop and backtest a system with positive expectancy. Also, because of the wide SB spreads on the Dow, I don't want to go back to daytrading it until I get a direct access account. As you will know, developing a profitable strategy takes a lot of time and effort. I don't see a problem with working on my Dow stuff on paper while I am actually trading the FX, with a view to coming back to this market sometime in the future.
There are people who make profits on every instrument. That is not to say that I will attempt every instrument just because there are pips to be made. I don't want someone elses canned system either - I'm still new, and I don't know very much about this business, but I've learned enough to know that using a canned system isn't appropriate if is not a style which suits. I'm sure there are people who make pips on the Dow trading 3 minute charts with moving averages. I don't like using indicators, I'm not comfortable with them, and trading a 3 minute chart with a 4 point spread through spreadbetting would not be profitable. Equally others make money trading without stops and sometimes waiting several days with a few hundred points risk before the market proves them right. That might make money, but isn't for me because not only can I not afford the risk, I wouldn't be comfortable with trading such a system.
In short, while I appreciate suggestions and advice from other members, I know now that I need to do the work myself, including backtesting and calculating the expectancy of a system, otherwise I won't have the confidence to execute with discipline. Also, we all have different trading styles, so blindly applying someone elses system won't be of assistance to me - it might require wider stops or a higher number of trades than I would be comfortable with. I hope this clarifies things somewhat, and yes I do appreciate feedback.
dc2000
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FW for someone who is a T2W advisor and thus is given some respect by the site owners you seem intent on this personal animosity
your 2nd and third paragraph totally contradict each other I presume this is because a statement has been posted what I wonder would be your response if the statement had been posted by me, my guess it would be along the lines of ceydababy's.
firewalker99
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Being a T2W advisor is irrelevant. I've been for so for a long time without anybody ever knowing. There is no reason why having a label attached to my name makes any difference, although you clearly keep bringing it up only to divert the topic.
Whether or not a statement has been posted is irrelevant too. My reasons have clearly been stated in the post you quoted and the follow-up post #9173 and they have absolutely nothing to do with Kevin posting a PDF. I make my own conclusions based on what I've come to know over the last couple of weeks and months, and these can not be pinpointed to one single event.
new_trader
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I agree with you completely. People here want lessons, easy to follow step by step instructions on trading. If you don't oblige they turn on you and accuse you of fraud. Keep your edge to yourself Kevin. Those who know, know, those who dont, don't! :cheesy:
trding posts
whats relevant on here is posts that improve each others skills and equity,please save all this quarrelling for the trash can
whats relevant on here is posts that improve each others skills and equity,please save all this quarrelling for the trash can
