Dow 2007

You trade on a long enough timescale not to get too messed up about this trade. I don't like adding to losers, but if there is a _proper_ top, maybe sell another contract 40 or so below the top, after a failed rally and lower high?

I've just taken a silly £1 short (see above)

Good luck getting out near break even.
 
Getting near the EOD and EOW. There will be profit takers. We need greedy, fearful bulls with a fresh charge of eager bears. The last 40 mins on the 1 min looks like a triple top and there is divergence in CCI and RSI. I predict a close closer to 13200
 
smccreedy said:
Sorry my apologies was thinking 'Z' and typing 'YM'.

1 YM = $5 (£2.5ish).

Still short and still not that hopeful of a good end to this trade.

I guess just failing to make new highs should be something to cheer if you've been caught short.

Glad I'm only in enough for it to sting not cut me in half.

Still, I am so reluctant to cover after the 800 rise it's put in in the last month.

I guess all the steadfast shorts like me are what is pushing it higher. The irony of it makes me laugh.

Bears give up and you'll get the fall you want!

Stephen
Click to expand...

Stephen...you're in good company mate....I'm (chunkily) short Dow & getting twatted each & every day. Only thing that stops me stacking my hand now is the thought of it tanking once I do! I take solace that there's only been two previous occasion where such a hign number of winning days have occurred....1927 & wait for it 1929

I'm confident there a big one day pullback coming...can't be sure when though 9though would be happier if the far east weren't on holiday...as that'sjust gving th yanks free reign), but for now I'm having to ride this out uncomfortably...sniping the odd covering long when it looks like it's gonna get too perky again. this is at least giving me a little damage limitation although it is also adding further complication knowing when to close the covering long!

Worse still ...big number tomorrow & a Friday (& never do well with either big numbers or Fridays!)

good luck...see you on the other side!
 
Yes, the Dow is overvalued. Yes there should be a big dip soon. But the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. I am going to take a short on the June future when I see an opportunity. Wish me luck, and hopefully we'll see (richer versions of) each other on the other side!

Damn American arrogance. Their fundamentals suck.
 
lurkerlurker said:
Damn American arrogance. Their fundamentals suck.
Click to expand...

Agree...their fundamentals truly suck, but I don't think it's solely American arrogance....its a Tsunami of global liquidity trying to eke out a return. And it's definitely a case of safety in numbers.....ie if you run any kind of fund, try explaining to your boss that you didn't match the opposition's performance cos you thought the fundamentals sucked!
 
True. I quite fancy being some variety of fund manager / CTA or something in the future. I hear where you are coming from here...I think the Yen carry has resumed also after the temporary unwinding a few weeks back. Had I had more risk capital, I would have shorted GBPJPY for around 700 pips.

Also, something tells me the Fed is pumping out liquidity - what is with the non-reporting of M3 now?

Heads together - what is going to indicate the plunge.What do we look for to enter safer shorts, or should we forget fantasies of 500 point drops and focus instead on looking for pullbacks to enter a long position?

Ideas welcome (that is the topic!).

Are we looking for indicator divergences on 1 hour candles, or what?
 
I'm afraid I can't offer much of an opinion on the fundamentals but yes markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I'd love to know how many people went bust shorting the dot.com bubble.

I'd also love to know how many people went bust as it fell like a stone after the collapse lower than it 'should' have.

I just get the feeling there are so many bears praying for a 100 point fall to get back a little money that it's not going to happen anytime soon.

For the bears to get relief the bulls have to be caught out and that will only happen with a blow off new high that gets the bears to throw in the towel and sends everyone long.

We all know that sort of day is coming, I just hope I get out first!

I'd love to know what my mental weakness is that stops me from reversing even some of my shorts when I can see it's going to go higher. There is something that stops me from flipping the trade and I'd love to know what it is.

Stephen
 
My guess would be a combination of refusal to define a loss and fear of a reversal as soon as you cover. You are thinking "What if I cover now and it drops 500 points next week". Thats £8k to you with 2 Z contracts (given that you are down 100 tics)?

Won't we get some greedy bulls profit taking near tops? Who are they selling to, if not more bears?
 
Covered at 13232 - £2 profit. Got out on a limit order. Lucky. Not doing that again in a hurry. Yes, its 2 points lower than when I covered, but.

So +£36 profit today. Slow and steady and all.
 
Evening all, not had chance to get trading today, had a quick look at my charts, I see the following fwiw

Appear still trending upwards but some of the indicators highlight a changing trend

5 min very close to a short signal been given

To late in the day for me to trade, will have a go Friday, hope you all had a successful day
 
I sat on the sidelines today again, I can tell you now never underestimate the ability of the American market to flatly ignore anything it doesn't like. Fact is DOW should be nearer 12000 than 13000 but already the hedge funds and analysts are saying it will hit 14000 by June / July time. Then look at the reality and you see that UBS is winding down its mortgage hedge fund with a 150mln Swiss Franc debt as it is in dire straights.

Just a bit of food for thought is all. I am still waiting for the DOW and the FTSE 100 miners to give me some signs of weakness.
 
Hi Dinos, I have signed up with Stockcharts and tried out a few DOW charts today. They are very clear to read, much easier than the free ADVFN chart I have been using, the only downside is they are not streaming, like the ADVFN version I use, so I had both open today.

What settings do you use for the TRIX indicator? Mine is at 15,9 and looks very like the MACD lines. Also, on the 5 min, 10 min charts do you have any special settings?

How do I send you a PM on here, I looked to send you one but couldn't see how, maybe I am missing something obvious!

Only did a few small paper trades today as it was so flat.
 
Ok lets look at the Dow, It cannot continue to go up. Let me give you an example, the last 3 days we have gone up 200 points. now if this continues we be at 14000 in 12 days time and I cannot see this happing.

So the trade is short from here at 13241based on Cash market the Futures are trading at 13278

I've gone short at the close tonight. at 12278 anyone jumping on for a ride down.easy 100 points on the cards.
 
Massive crinkly lips here.

Wrestled with that Dow puppy all day long, thought I could see the light a the end of the tunnel at teatime...however that last hour mullered me.

I feel like that bloke on youtube "suck my Nasdaq" (if you haven't checked him out - do so, especially if you're a bear...he's been short Nasdaq since february! Here's a sampler from last week http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BuJUcKgekE&mode=related&search= )
 
Dinos said:
Evening all, not had chance to get trading today, had a quick look at my charts, I see the following fwiw

Appear still trending upwards but some of the indicators highlight a changing trend

5 min very close to a short signal been given

To late in the day for me to trade, will have a go Friday, hope you all had a successful day
Click to expand...

Thanks. I'm up just over £30, so its a profit, not a loss (nor a success).

Could I ask what you are using for a short signal?

I started a new thread about the end of the bull run in particular. I note that CCI(150) has just gone overbought at over 200, and that RSI(14) is also overbought. This hasn't happened at any point during this bull run.
 
laptop1 said:
Ok lets look at the Dow, It cannot continue to go up. Let me give you an example, the last 3 days we have gone up 200 points. now if this continues we be at 14000 in 12 days time and I cannot see this happing.

So the trade is short from here at 13241based on Cash market the Futures are trading at 13278

I've gone short at the close tonight. at 12278 anyone jumping on for a ride down.easy 100 points on the cards.
Click to expand...

I've started a new thread based on that premise- but inviting more serious discussion. I won't risk my money on "it just can't go any higher". People said that about Dell in 1996, etc. If you have any further insight into how indicators suggest a pullback, some macroeconomic stuff, correlations with other instruments, leading indicators from financials etc - I'm sure we'd all like to hear.

I'm happy to jump on with a small £6pp SB short when the indicators line up.
 
lurkerlurker said:
I've started a new thread based on that premise- but inviting more serious discussion. I won't risk my money on "it just can't go any higher". People said that about Dell in 1996, etc. If you have any further insight into how indicators suggest a pullback, some macroeconomic stuff, correlations with other instruments, leading indicators from financials etc - I'm sure we'd all like to hear.

I'm happy to jump on with a small £6pp SB short when the indicators line up.
Click to expand...

Im looking at price and time. Based on the last 3 days going up 200 points, if we continue, in 12 days time we be at 14000, Yes it can go up to 14000, but not without little pull backs here and there. Can you see it going to 14000 in 12 days time?..............I cant...It's friday tomorrow, maybe we get a little profit taking coming in. im only looking for 100 points on the down side. I think there a good chance. and we had an inside bar on the Dow tonight.
 
Interesting point. I'm going to consider trading it after the open tomorrow. I won't hold an overnight short on it at this time. There should be some EOD/EOW profit taking for sure. I can't see it hitting 14000 that quickly, but there is no reason why it can't advance to it solidly over 3 months, never coming down to touch 13220 ever again. "Only" 100 points would be great for me, since I made 1/5 of that today! Good luck.
 
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