Dow 2007

[Atilla]

I'd really like to see 550-60 .... it would make my day and help me to sleep much better tonight ....... as it would make next week much much EASIER to play

Hi guys,

Back from Legoland... What a weekend in every aspect of the word. Got to the hotel on Friday and on the news channel saw DOW at 13550s. WOW. So much for me thinking bouncing off 650 nicely. What do I know.

I think we may have some bounce but I now think this may go down to 13000 regions. Give or take a 100. Depending on MAs now I will go long or short favouring the short side. Having made a killing I notice from my past activities that trading after big gains subsequently leads me to make errors. Hence considering couple of days break to see what comes next...

Must confess Legoland food was really bad - nothing but fish & chips, pasta and pizza. Prices really way over the top for the quality. Kids loved it. Pips were flowing like Niagra falls out of me pocket. Great time. They even had a little Darlek on Canary Wharf tower. We then went round looking for the Tardis because some kid said to my son that they had seen it. It's near the London eye if anybody is interested.

I think I'll skip my charts for this Sunday. I'll catch up on some news and come back tomorrow. Thank you for all your blogs.

Good trading everyone.

 

[jm99]

A system I follow has a signal at tomorrows open (sp/es). It's derived from published work (altucher), so I am happy to share. It's a v.simple mean reversion system and the idea is to capitalise on panic selling. The rules are:

Entry - if the long-term trend is up (I’m defining by a 24 month ma) and if the close is below the lower bol band (sd 1.5, ma length 20) then buy the next bar at open.

Exit - close trade if close higher than entry or after 10 days.

It's a 90% winner, based on over 180 trades over the last 20 years. The equity curve is attached.

It’s had 17 consecutive winners. Recent performance in 2007 has 8 trades netting over 100 sp points. dd though not too hot, avg over 07 recent trades is 16pts, but this high avg is mainly due to a huge dd for 1 trade in July/Aug (dd over 57 pts, but trade closed for a 14 pt profit).

Warning - the system was long on black Monday 87 & suffered huge loss.......and accounts for the huge blip at the start of the ec. Dyor etc…

 

[Hook Shot]

Post of the Day

Hi,

Interesting Ftse, not marked down that much with sbs yet still pretty much on last weeks low, Must be hoping we all forget by Monday

Ftse now down over 100pts pre open!
I held my position the weekend .....:cheesy:

 

[2468steve]

Ftse now down over 100pts pre open!
I held my position the weekend .....:cheesy:

nice HS....i got on our ol' faithful Dax when it was still being quoted to open up 5 pts at 8pm Fri with the Dow off.....currently down over 150 pts...

 

[Hook Shot]

Steve's Gaps

Hi FW,
I'm cautious on NDX at moment as NDX likes to fill gaps and there are two left open.The first from Oct 4 at 2107-2118 and a smaller one at 2076-2079 from 25 Sept...catching the turn will be the hard bit as usual.....but when it comes it's likely to be swift and ugly.... ..

To clear any confusion ........ with market in free fall .. I'm looking to see whether Ndx targets gaps mentioned in aforementioned post....

We might be near the first one now ...

Oh well done steve

 

[Hook Shot]

Steve's Gaps

Hi FW,
I'm cautious on NDX at moment as NDX likes to fill gaps and there are two left open.The first from Oct 4 at 2107-2118 and a smaller one at 2076-2079 from 25 Sept...catching the turn will be the hard bit as usual.....but when it comes it's likely to be swift and ugly.... ..

To clear any confusion ........ with market in free fall .. I'm looking to see whether Ndx targets gaps mentioned in aforementioned post....

We might be near the first one now ...

Oh well done steve

 

[2468steve]

To clear any confusion ........ with market in free fall .. I'm looking to see whether Ndx targets gaps mentioned in aforementioned post....

We might be near the first one now ...

Oh well done steve

NDX futures down 15 at mo.....roughly 2116 cash...for them to be legitimately filled though needs to happen during market hours....good start tho'.....

 

[Hook Shot]

NDX futures down 15 at mo.....roughly 2116 cash...for them to be legitimately filled though needs to happen during market hours....good start tho'.....

Cheers steve thanks for sorting that one out...
==========================================================================
EuroDollar - CB's have been hinting that we should be wary of one way bets...........
Do they know something that we don't ???? :cheesy:

Perhaps a dollar rally is around the corner........ watching and waiting..

euro-dollar 1.4329 latest ..making new highs this morning at around 1.4348
==========================================================================

 

[black bear]

Well done Hook

Ftse now down over 100pts pre open!
I held my position the weekend .....:cheesy:

Hi Hook

Well done, congrats on Contra trade.

Not for me my friend, against the Long term trend/medium term trend and even the Short term trend depending how you read ta and my method for that matter.

No nothing for me there, might be at 10:30 when the men in Black come out, think they are getting to work now actually

And I like my sleep:!:

just wiped sleep out of eyes :-0

POST of the Day so early 1 result today at least

 

[black bear]

Men In Black

Ftse now down over 100pts pre open!
I held my position the weekend .....:cheesy:

MEN IN BLACK AT WORK :?:

Ftse out of open hour range :!:

charts for all you that like indicators, me I never use them

Short @ 6438 ftse cont trend 15 min T/ hr Range

 

[Hook Shot]

Anomalies...don't you just love 'em 2

Hi Hook

Well done, congrats on Contra trade.

Not for me my friend, against the Long term trend/medium term trend and even the Short term trend depending how you read ta and my method for that matter.

No nothing for me there, might be at 10:30 when the men in Black come out, think they are getting to work now actually

And I like my sleep:!:

just wiped sleep out of eyes :-0

POST of the Day so early 1 result today at least

Yeah you're right ..... so many difft strats and timeframes ...easy to get wires crossed ... However, ftse (&dax) pricing given the meltdown on dow was curious as you noted.... I thought the odds were in my favour bigtime ... and so it turned out. The flipside is if Ftse pricing was right the dow would have to put in a 100-150 pt rally overnight ...... which I would gladly jump onto .. so either way there was only one winner :cheesy: They don't happen as often as before but when you see them you gotta act... imo

Sleep ....... I'm past my peak so more beauty sleep won't make a heck of difference...

Early for post of the day - that post was Golden and will be hard to top today ...even if someone nails the low for the turnaround.....it wouldn't beat your "note" ... If one just traded those anomalies you wouldn't trade much ..... but your returns and success rate would be superb... enough of my wafflings !!!

Have a good day

Hs

 

[black bear]

Thinking and watching

Gone quiet out there

All thinking :cheesy: :idea:



Close approaching hr low range + 25 pts @ 413 ftse

 

[lurkerlurker]

Once again I'm sheepish...

Today, 02:38 AM #7302
lurkerlurker
Legendary Member


Long 13611



is this a record ? 98 minutes for a complete strategy U-turn. Again.

Ooops. Just given myself yet another red face here. Perhaps I should make a distinction between "trades" (confident in direction and entry, longer holding period), and quick "scalps" where you see a temporary momentum change or order imbalance in the book and can take a few points from it without having to hold for too long.

Without making this post sound like a "But...but...but!", to be fair I bought a bottom just before a 35 point rally which happened in under 2 minutes from when I entered. My first post (short side only) was discussing the "Big picture", whereas this was a very quick counter trend scalp which I wouldn't have hesitated in closing for a small loss if the reversal I had anticipated didn't transpire quickly. Hope this clears things up (or at least makes me look less of an undisciplined moron!)

Compassion and mercy? Or am I a mad gambler who should go and bet on the horses instead of posting on a trading board?

I know X points gained catching a reversal is worth no more than X points gained by trend following, but involves more risk. Catching the reversals seems to be one of the few strategies I am good at trading though.

 

[black bear]

Some like Big Cakes, Some like Small

Yeah you're right ..... so many difft strats and timeframes ...easy to get wires crossed ... However, ftse (&dax) pricing given the meltdown on dow was curious as you noted.... I thought the odds were in my favour bigtime ... and so it turned out. The flipside is if Ftse pricing was right the dow would have to put in a 100-150 pt rally overnight ...... which I would gladly jump onto .. so either way there was only one winner :cheesy: They don't happen as often as before but when you see them you gotta act... imo

Sleep ....... I'm past my peak so more beauty sleep won't make a heck of difference...

Early for post of the day - that post was Golden and will be hard to top today ...even if someone nails the low for the turnaround.....it wouldn't beat your "note" ... If one just traded those anomalies you wouldn't trade much ..... but your returns and success rate would be superb... enough of my wafflings !!!

Have a good day

Hs

Nice trade again,

Just had my usual small piece of the Cake , don"t mind, I have found if I trade everything I see my brain just goes, well very quick and really x wired, so just stick to me one trades at a time for the moment using usual method and be happy and get plenty of sleep.

Time frames at moment across board are anything IMO so you got to no why your in and for how long or I will at any rate get fingers burnt and end up

My waffle over, you to

over to the Big Boys, Dows warming up

 

[black bear]

Always , been there worn the T shirt mate

Compassion and mercy? Or am I a mad gambler who should go and bet on the horses instead of posting on a trading board?

I know X points gained catching a reversal is worth no more than X points gained by trend following, but involves more risk. Catching the reversals seems to be one of the few strategies I am good at trading though.[/QUOTE]

Hi Lurker,

just got time before open and don't want to off the thread

Just left above of your post, popped entry in your Journal and well intended mate.

Blue above, if you are then pick them in a lower time frame about 5 times shorter than
next up . The next up is your trend time frame and bobs your Uncle your trading with trend and not scalping

NO not 1min 5 min Lurker

Horses , if you have a go don't forget its the trainer who places them, Horse they got sod all to do with it

Trade well and safe

regards Andy AKA

 

[firewalker99]

just entered a tentative long on NQ pre-market 2132

 

[black bear]

just entered a tentative long on NQ pre-market 2132

tentative, whats that


1 slipper :?:

 

[black bear]

Charts Dow 3 Timeframes with Super trend

3 time charts

Blue = last weeks Low and High , which is a big bounce to High

Put super trend on them, don"t use super trend myself, but came up on another thread so anybody interested in 3 time frames can see what the general idea is and what's going on in each approximately

No open range on because we have"t opened

 

[catracho]

Cheers steve thanks for sorting that one out...
==========================================================================
EuroDollar - CB's have been hinting that we should be wary of one way bets...........
Do they know something that we don't ???? :cheesy:

Perhaps a dollar rally is around the corner........ watching and waiting..

euro-dollar 1.4329 latest ..making new highs this morning at around 1.4348
==========================================================================

Hs
Very prescient comment !

 

[lurkerlurker]

I'm not favouring the opening gap closing due to the very high volumes premarket. We could see much more downside from here. Perhaps sell an opening rally when it weakens?