Dow 2007

[Hook Shot]

Thank you .....but I got it from the stocktiger.com daily videos :cheesy:

Sometimes.... it's good to get another opinion and their methodology seems pretty consistent and straightforward. .... The great thing is he reminds me that the dow does not give a decent trading set up every day.........should be obvious but ...

Vive la France .........only kidding

 

[jacinto]

Vive la France .........only kidding

no, you are not kidding, you are french!! go on, confess

 

[FetteredChinos]

ah so you are the one viewer of stocktiger's spam.. how he gets away with it i will never know.

and dont you jest about the french just yet..we have sri lanka and estonia to negotiate first before we can ever contemplate the cheese-eating surrender monkeys..

 

[Hook Shot]

Senor.....I will confess to not being French.........

FC I know ... stocktiger is pretty simplistic but .......I find it easy to overcomplicate things sometimes....... I see your getting your continued bull run...... I remember if nobody else does ........ 3rd yr of Presidential cycle ..I think you said.....

Surrender monkeys ........ ?

You also forgot the JAPANESE gp

 

[jacinto]

Senor.....I will confess to not being French.........

FC I know ... stocktiger is pretty simplistic but .......I find it easy to overcomplicate things sometimes....... I see your getting your continued bull run...... I remember if nobody else does ........ 3rd yr of Presidential cycle ..I think you said.....

Surrender monkeys ........ ?

ok, ok, confession accepted Mr.

lets see what the escargot-fromage-foig gras-andoiuillete eating and Chambertin-Fixin-Minervois-Gigondas drinking monkeys do..................

mmmm, i think i am getting an idea what i may end up cooking tomorrow evening for dinner..........a nice cumberland sausage casserole cooked in a Cassoulet style

 

[Atilla]

guys.. abandon all hopes for shorts, please.


we're looking at another 10%+ rise before the end of april..

thats 1,400 points you can take on the long side, or be underwater on the short side.

its your call.

not only is it a pre-election year, but its also the seasonally bullish winter months..

shorts beware. i cant stress this enough.. buy any dips you see.. stops of 5% should do..

just cash in.

i dont post much now, but i still see we have people trying to call the top on a 300 year bull market. just let it go and trade to the long side please.

FC

Hi FC - blast from the past.

Good to hear from you.

I remember your long stance too. In the end you have been proven right. I must confess the DOW has exceeded all of my expectations but I do feel the drop in dollar has a lot to do with it not to mention the skewd-up carry trades and the Japaneese contribution.

Values are very much distorted imo. I will wait for the higher highs. I think January/Feb time is likely to be very interesting next year.

Regarding the French I was referring to the rugby not futebell... But next year should be good with the Olympics and the European Cup certainly. Should give us something to cheer up after the melt down in the markets... :cheesy:

 

[shortorlong]

guys.. abandon all hopes for shorts, please.


we're looking at another 10%+ rise before the end of april..

thats 1,400 points you can take on the long side, or be underwater on the short side.

its your call.

not only is it a pre-election year, but its also the seasonally bullish winter months..

shorts beware. i cant stress this enough.. buy any dips you see.. stops of 5% should do..

just cash in.

i dont post much now, but i still see we have people trying to call the top on a 300 year bull market. just let it go and trade to the long side please.

FC

hey , It is possible to be underwater on the long side in a 300 year bull market, I know, I was there today onthe ftse .

anyway how do you know it isn't a 300 year fake out? :cheesy: let's all get together in the year 2307

 

[FetteredChinos]

hey , It is possible to be underwater on the long side in a 300 year bull market, I know, I was there today onthe ftse .

anyway how do you know it isn't a 300 year fake out? :cheesy: let's all get together in the year 2307

hmm,, i'll be 1528 then... not sure im going to last that long..

 

[lurkerlurker]

I fancy a 1pp SB long on the front month, left unattended until expiry with a 500 point stop.

I could have safely put a BE stop on that trade now, and would have been laughing. Buy the dips folks!

 

[Pat494]

Congrats to the English rugby team !

Just a thought for a weekend - if you believe in indicators and you have 2 that both achieve a 70% success rate, would the combined success rate of these two be more or less than 70% ?

 

[Atilla]

Congrats to the English rugby team !

Just a thought for a weekend - if you believe in indicators and you have 2 that both achieve a 70% success rate, would the combined success rate of these two be more or less than 70% ?

It would be .7 x .7 = .49 = 49%

 

[Baldwreck]

It would be .7 x .7 = .49 = 49%

This doesn't look quite as straight forward as that to me - by the same logic the failure rate would be .3 x.3 which is .09 or 9% - so the probability that they are both right is 49%, that they are both wrong is 9% which means that they would cancel themselves out 42% of the time (2 x .7 x.3).

So whereas with only a single indicator the success ratio was 7/3 it is now 49/9 -at least I think that's right if the indicators are entirely independent of each other.

 

[Pat494]

Not sure that either of the above are right. At first glance they may seem so.
Atilla’s answer is 70% of 70%, which it isn’t. Its 70% of the working days say of 100, that’s 70 that are right and 30 that are wrong. Then of the 30 wrong days, 21 ( 70% ) are right and 9 wrong. That makes it by my calculation 70+21 = 91 or am I being optimistic here ?

 

[Atilla]

Not sure that either of the above are right. At first glance they may seem so.
Atilla’s answer is 70% of 70%, which it isn’t. Its 70% of the working days say of 100, that’s 70 that are right and 30 that are wrong. Then of the 30 wrong days, 21 ( 70% ) are right and 9 wrong. That makes it by my calculation 70+21 = 91 or am I being optimistic here ?

You need to clarify what you mean by your question?

1. Both indicators to be correct
2. Any indicator to be correct (1 right, 1 wrong)
3. Both indicators incorrect...

Your questioned stated combined percentage which I took to mean both being correct. In which case 49% is correct.

There is also the fomula to the power (n-(0.3x0.3)) which will remove the chance of failure. This would give you 80% accuracy with any one indicator being correct and one not.


Not sure about it though. I need to read up about mutually inclusive or exclusive permutations.

Amendment. Just looked it up. Looks like the formula for either indicator giving correct result when both accruacies are 70% is...

Answer = 1 - ( (1-0.7)x(1-0.7) ) = 91 %


Phew... End of homework eh?

 

[Baldwreck]

Not sure that either of the above are right. At first glance they may seem so.
Atilla’s answer is 70% of 70%, which it isn’t. Its 70% of the working days say of 100, that’s 70 that are right and 30 that are wrong. Then of the 30 wrong days, 21 ( 70% ) are right and 9 wrong. That makes it by my calculation 70+21 = 91 or am I being optimistic here ?

I think you may have forgotten the "no result" days - you are right in that on 9 days you lose - Attila is right in that you win on 49 days - but the remainder are ""no result" days i.e. one indicator is right but the other is wrong. So yes I think you are being an optimist!! - if your theory were correct it would indeed be the holy grail!!

Taking your analysis, even on a 50% chance of success ,with two indicators you would be winning 75 days out of 100. If only it were true!!

 

[Pat494]

errrrrrrr yes !!
Thanks for your help with my little problem.

I have found a site which may interest some its called gnutrade.com . They just trade the main indexes and commodities. The spreads are rubbish BUT one can play with play or real money and if anyone thinks one is good enough they may back your choice with real money. If so and one gets it right one can play with play money but win REAL money !!
If one is rubbish at trading one can just back the leading players and win too
See how it goes

 

[Baldwreck]

errrrrrrr yes !!
Thanks for your help with my little problem.

I have found a site which may interest some its called gnutrade.com . They just trade the main indexes and commodities. The spreads are rubbish BUT one can play with play or real money and if anyone thinks one is good enough they may back your choice with real money. If so and one gets it right one can play with play money but win REAL money !!
If one is rubbish at trading one can just back the leading players and win too
See how it goes

Glad to help. Hope you get on well with gnutrade - on another thread - can't remember who, but they said the spreads were unplayable.

Back to the Dow - if its of any interest - I have 4 open dow trades (bets, sorry I'm one of those rather inferior people who use fixed odds) as follows.

Close above 14047 expires 16th Oct placed 3rd Oct market at 14007.
Close above 13968 expires 17th Oct placed 4th Oct market at 13965
Close above 13974 expires 18th Oct placed 5th Oct market at 14042
Close above 14066 expires 19th Oct placed 8th Oct market at 14055

So a busy week on the Dow at least - fingers crossed.

 

[Pat494]

Doing well with your bets Bald
Are you trailing them up with a stop loss to lock in profits ?

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

Still none the wiser regarding the DOW. What is happening? Here are two charts weekly and daily...

On the Weekly chart I've circled previous touches to the standard error channel going back to the start of the bull run shortly after the end of the Iraq offensive at 2003 March. I thought we had exhausted the rise coupled with all the banking fiasco and sub-prime market debacle but to astonishingly market has risen to new highs.

On the pivot 1st resistence level of 14177 was touched and Dow fell back. Second resistance level is 14300. If this is breached then I reckon as shown on the daily charts 14580 will be in sight.

On the daily charts I've drawn circles round where in middle of May market looked like turning but instead by late July it rose another 3.19% to 13963. On the MACD and Stochastics we have a similar setup and these indicators although over extended could well repeat the May setup and produce another contrary 3% rise to 14580 by end of year.

So whilst still being bearish looking at these two charts the long trend I can see as continuing.

Will I go long. No. I have no confidence in the market or the fundamentals (sorry to all the pure TAs) but I will prefer to watch and take scalps on the shorts.

Israel taking out a Nuclear facility in Suriye plus increasing tensions in the ME makes me fearful of rosy market expectations. Gold does look promising but after a quick fall I expect it to continue rising. Fuddy duddy times ahead for the DOW imo.

Good trading everyone.

 

[senyorqueso]

So whilst still being bearish looking at these two charts the long trend I can see as continuing.

Will I go long. No. I have no confidence in the market or the fundamentals (sorry to all the pure TAs) but I will prefer to watch and take scalps on the shorts.


Good trading everyone.

So you see the uptrend continuing, but will only go short - what's the matter with you?