Dow 2007

not sure how smart this trade is but on 60min Dax chart there is a gap up to 7561 cash....we're now quoted 7565 so gone short and put a stop at 602....will either be a good earner or total disaster.....will prob know by time I get out of bed in morn.....:LOL: :LOL:

ECB rate announcement 2row so I'm hopimg buyers will be cautious....:eek:
 
Why you should trade until the Close

fibonelli said:
smells like vintage PPT
Click to expand...

I stopped trading at 20:25. I was down 100 pips. I had caught near a low going long from 13192 and covered for +30. I got whipped a further twice, and decided to call it a day. Just as I was doing that, I was considering buying 13190 as it looked like it was about to bounce. I've just come back, and looked at the chart, and note with no small amount of irritation that the Dow went up 200 points in 20 minutes without me. Even half of that would have allowed me to break even. I had a signal there, and I didn't take it because "I don't trade the last half hour". Someone should close my accounts and ban me from trading. I am a miserable failure. I overtraded today. I lost more than I should have allowed in any single day. My confidence took a big hit. All at a mere £1pp (which is almost too bloody much in this market). On top of that, IT problems at my bucket shop directly cost me 50 of the 100 pips I lost. Jobless tomorrow, nonfarms Friday, plenty of up and down movement into EOW, so hopefully I can recover some profits. I am still up on the week, and ended last week with a profit, so all is not lost. However, my trading psychology is worrying me, and I think it would be all to easy to get caught in a string of losses.

I am very very embarrassed. Whoever said don't trade the last hour was an idiot. Also, how come the Dow was moving so fast into the close? Anyone have a clue?
 
You should be OKAY....

2468steve said:
not sure how smart this trade is but on 60min Dax chart there is a gap up to 7561 cash....we're now quoted 7565 so gone short and put a stop at 602....will either be a good earner or total disaster.....will prob know by time I get out of bed in morn.....:LOL: :LOL:

ECB rate announcement 2row so I'm hopimg buyers will be cautious....:eek:
Click to expand...
To open up pretty much +100 is quite a big ask in a soft market... that's opening up over Wed's highs ........... "punchy"

Furthermore............dow tagged the first retracement target at the close with more not far away in 400ish Zone and just above... so you should get away with it ... could add more weight to argument but won't bother... :cheesy:

Theory says were are still in a fast move down in US as you know so .....
 
Keep the faith

lurkerlurker said:
I stopped trading at 20:25. I was down 100 pips. I had caught near a low going long from 13192 and covered for +30. I got whipped a further twice, and decided to call it a day. Just as I was doing that, I was considering buying 13190 as it looked like it was about to bounce. I've just come back, and looked at the chart, and note with no small amount of irritation that the Dow went up 200 points in 20 minutes without me. Even half of that would have allowed me to break even. I had a signal there, and I didn't take it because "I don't trade the last half hour". Someone should close my accounts and ban me from trading. I am a miserable failure. I overtraded today. I lost more than I should have allowed in any single day. My confidence took a big hit. All at a mere £1pp (which is almost too bloody much in this market). On top of that, IT problems at my bucket shop directly cost me 50 of the 100 pips I lost. Jobless tomorrow, nonfarms Friday, plenty of up and down movement into EOW, so hopefully I can recover some profits. I am still up on the week, and ended last week with a profit, so all is not lost. However, my trading psychology is worrying me, and I think it would be all to easy to get caught in a string of losses.

I am very very embarrassed. Whoever said don't trade the last hour was an idiot. Also, how come the Dow was moving so fast into the close? Anyone have a clue?
Click to expand...

I'm probably speaking out of turn but rather than trading every shake of a lamb's tail it might be best to try and ski downhill ... trend is down has been for most of the last 2wks - ask 2468 :LOL: So the line of least resistance has been to go with the trend..
So perhaps the strat ought to be short the rally that fizzles out rather than trying to go long.... ?

That said we are trying to rally but there is a stack of overhead rez .... since the decline has been fierce... it WILL fizzle at one of these points and the profit opp will be fairly low risk...and probably relatively stress-free.. ??

regards
h

Edit: £1 is perhaps not a bad stake in these markets as the swings are of a decent size and plentiful. I think this is now a market where you can make money from the size of the move rather then the size of your stake. Laptop had a good post Tuesday night I hope some who are new to "warp speed" markets had a read....

Edit 2 - the dow moved swiftly into the close because someone tried to hose the bears.... they knew loads of guys were short and some heavily so ... so I assume a few big lads decided to take them for a ride (remind them this is not quite a one way bet). Bears had to buy to cover since market was rising... so it turned into a buying frenzy as buyers joined (some)shorts in a panic trying to cover... classic short squeeze and quite normal in these type of market conditions.....

Lastly before I get off this soap box ... I think this low vol environment of the last few years has lulled a few into a false sense of security..... wide range volatile markets used to be the norm.........check yahoo spx data say 1996-2003 for example ........... now they're back......... Halleluja
 
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Thanks for the great post HS. Yeah, it does look like a short cover squeeze, and they are especially sharp. I think I will look to short near these highs if I can get the price when the cash market opens. I don't like the light futures volume on the YM premarket. I'll trade the US Unemployment number, and then remain flat until the open at least. I love these wide ranging markets, and I would hope to be able to make some nice pips out of them tomorrow afternoon.

Keeping an eye on the FTSE at midday (I'll short that on a surprise rate rise should one occur) - I think a 25bp increase would send the FTSE down 50 points or more. Will watch the Dax over the ECB announcement as well.

Non farms tomorrow!
 
The volatility we are currently experiencing the last week or so is nothing from the good old volatility days of 1998 to 2003 ...Lets hope the Volatility is here to stay, as I said in my previous post, taking the up tick rule away from stocks have also helped.

I expect the Dow to be up tomorrow based on the 200 point move in the last half hour. I would prefer is we had a lower open tomorrow, if I see that signal I be buying all day till the close...

Take a look at this chart based on a 6 ATR and a 100 moving average, you will see the real wild moves was back 1998 to 2003 ;)

http://quote.prophet.net//applets/javachart/printGif.jsp?id=http://JUSTICE.prophet.net/TemporaryFiles/JavaCharts/91.1186020588379.print.gif&scope=common&host=www.prophet.net&symbol=$INDU&duration=10y&frequency=d
 
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laptop1 said:
The volatility we are currently experiencing the last week or so is nothing from the good old volatility days of 1998 to 2003 ...Lets hope the Volatility is here to stay, as I said in my previous post, taking the up tick rule away from stocks have also helped.

I expect the Dow to be up tomorrow based on the 200 point move in the last half hour. I would prefer is we had a lower open tomorrow, if I see that signal I be buying all day till the close...

Take a look at this chart based on a 6 ATR and a 100 moving average, you will see the real wild moves was back 1998 to 2003 ;)

http://quote.prophet.net//applets/javachart/printGif.jsp?id=http://JUSTICE.prophet.net/TemporaryFiles/JavaCharts/91.1186020588379.print.gif&scope=common&host=www.prophet.net&symbol=$INDU&duration=10y&frequency=d
Click to expand...
Sir, I bow in the presence of greatness.... thanks for the illustration/evidence :D

Re - uptick rule .... I remember Ron Insana cnbc flinching when he mentioned it was being considered... he's meant to be neutral but he couldn't hide the significance.... fine reporter someone I listen to whenever he's on. To be blunt the lads have changed the rules so they can take it down BIG up to 50% (five-zero)? in a day if they wanted to... I mentioned something about this on the crash millionaire thread back in feb...
 
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2468steve said:
not sure how smart this trade is but on 60min Dax chart there is a gap up to 7561 cash....we're now quoted 7565 so gone short and put a stop at 602....will either be a good earner or total disaster.....will prob know by time I get out of bed in morn.....:LOL: :LOL:

ECB rate announcement 2row so I'm hopimg buyers will be cautious....:eek:
Click to expand...

Wakey wakey you have profit ...:cheesy:
 
2468steve said:
not sure how smart this trade is but on 60min Dax chart there is a gap up to 7561 cash....we're now quoted 7565 so gone short and put a stop at 602....will either be a good earner or total disaster.....will prob know by time I get out of bed in morn.....:LOL: :LOL:

ECB rate announcement 2row so I'm hopimg buyers will be cautious....:eek:
Click to expand...

that cunning plan worked a treat.....:LOL: :LOL:

covered at 510....gotta go Tesco's..:eek:
 
According to TH some one bought 540 futures by mistake instead of 54 which sent market up by 200 points plus.
 
AC007 said:
According to TH some one bought 540 futures by mistake instead of 54 which sent market up by 200 points plus.
Click to expand...

Who / what is TH? Further, I think fat finger of 540 contracts would gap the market 20 points or so, and start some buying, but it wouldn't account for 200 points....
 
if you bought 1000 contracts would it pretty much make the market move everytime?
 
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