Dow 2007

2468steve said:
Hi FW,
that's exactly the method I was using !!...:LOL:

fairly basic stuff but suprising how profitable it can be....especially considering where we are at highs in the market,you can control your risk effectively.....After all "It's not what you make,it's what you keep.."

cheers
Click to expand...

indeed, first things first... which is controlling risk, assessing potential is the second step
anyway I bet lurker will fall of his chair reading this :LOL: :LOL:
 
Firewalker

Am I missing something here, I know I had a wine or 2, but, in the link you posted setting out guidance to Lurker, either I have read it wrong or the wines strong, here goes:

2) Place BUY limit order at PDH, contradicts with 4) Place SELL order at PDH

3) Place SELL limit order at PDL, contradicts with 4) Place BUY limit order at PDL

Is this right or am I having a bad day??????
 
FW, agree with you point, that we go back and explain our reasoning for taking the trade, it help for others to understand our reasoning.
 
Dinos said:
Firewalker

Am I missing something here, I know I had a wine or 2, but, in the link you posted setting out guidance to Lurker, either I have read it wrong or the wines strong, here goes:

2) Place BUY limit order at PDH, contradicts with 4) Place SELL order at PDH

3) Place SELL limit order at PDL, contradicts with 4) Place BUY limit order at PDL

Is this right or am I having a bad day??????
Click to expand...

No it's right, but depending on where price opens the next day, you either pick one or the other.

See, if price opens outside of the previous day range, for example 20 points above, then you place a BUY lmt at the PDH. If it opens inside the range, you place a SELL limit at PDH AND a BUY lmt at PDL. If it opens for instance with a gap down of 40 points, then you only put a SELL lmt at the PDH.

PS: members interested in acquiring this system PM me for details on the payment :cheesy:
 
firewalker99 said:
So you have identied a filter for your system. Do not take trades that go against the trend and if I read your posts correctly you have defined trend by a MA line, am I correct?

It that's so, you have something solid to test but as you re-defined your setup you need to restart from the beginning with a testing period.

About the chart you posted, I'm bit surprised as to why you would wait so long to take an entry. There's a pretty clear long signal about 150 points lower then your entry. Have a look at my annotations.
Click to expand...

Yes, you are correct. The entry I have on the chart is higher because this system isn't trying to pick tops or bottoms. At the point you mentioned, price was below the down sloping DEMAs, so longs were out per the above rule.

Interestingly, in the real market, I pulled in my short 10 tics off the bottom of that bar when it hit my target of 13550 from a short entry of 13610 for +60. Profit taking there was permitted, but the system didn't signal a full reversal.

Hope this clears things up. Yes, of course in hindsight I wish I had stopped and reversed long from 13554.
 
firewalker99 said:
exit at 14039 = +37 (first half)
Click to expand...

Moved stop for second part to 14025 now, so locked in profits are 60 points guaranteed for today. I'd say time for a summer cocktail now, but the sun has gone away and dark clouds are coming together. Raindrops already falling from the sky... oh well the less sun the more productive trading days :)
 
FW, its me, too many wines!!

Lurker, glad to see you finally see the benfit of using DEMA's

I'm off, goodnight
 
firewalker99 said:
my system has a proprietary name, so be aware of the troubles you can get it in using my method! :cheesy: I've only lent it to lurker for 2 weeks ;)
Click to expand...

FW,
you're welcome to follow my system...if the postman turns up before 7.30am buy the market....if after 7.30am it's a sell signal...if he and milkman turn up together then expect a sideways day....If either milko or postie fail to turn up check to see if the lady of the house is still at home....:LOL:
 
2468steve said:
FW,
you're welcome to follow my system...if the postman turns up before 7.30am buy the market....if after 7.30am it's a sell signal...if he and milkman turn up together then expect a sideways day....If either milko or postie fail to turn up check to see if the lady of the house is still at home....:LOL:
Click to expand...

lol, I would be inclined to have a test at that, but that would mean getting up before 7.30am to check if somebody turned up!! are you crazy :LOL: :LOL:
 
firewalker99 said:
exit second part at 14050

that's +85 for today, having made that on a single trade I am very satisfied with myself and having the patience to wait

good night everybody and good luck on the position/overnight traders
Click to expand...

Nice trading as usual FW.....goodnite...:cool:
 
PPI data and other numbers to be released before the open at 13:30. Per usual, I will try to get on board in the direction of the move if I think there is enough continuation to leave me positive after spread.

Regarding position trading, the system I am using has been turning steadily....bearish. First, price crosses all 3 DEMAs, then the DEMA(8) goes below the DEMA(21) on a 4 hour chart, and now MACD histogram is < 0. Price has however come back up to just below the DEMA(8), robbing me of the crossover of all three DEMAs which would complete the short entry signal. The DEMA lines are pretty flat for the last 3 4h bars, so it won't take much movement at the open to give me a short signal.

I am a little anxious about shorting at this point, even if all the moving averages and the MACD turn down, however I must follow my system

As far as the papertrading goes, market opened within previous days range so I have a sell at 14,065 and a buy at 13,958 on paper, but neither has been triggered.

I see CPI and RPIX in the UK is above estimates, and the FTSE has been getting battered all day. Lets hope there is strong inflation evident in the US PPI this afternoon.

In summary, if the market drops on the news, sell short and convert to a position trade if the Price / MA cross with MACD support is bearish. If news is bullish, go long for a continutation but look to get out quickly at any sign of topping.

Good trading all. (For what it is worth, I am seeing the LS and Head of an H&S on the 4 hour, and a weak rally to 14,050 would be a nice double top) Put call ratio as reported by rathcoole yesterday was more bearish - here is hopeing he can update us on PCR today (although I think the CBOT publishes that, I'll go check).
 
US Producer Price Index Lower

Looks like US inflation is down there guys.

I managed to get a good trade in on there. I went long on 14025 and covered on 14047 (spreadbet prices, spread of 4 on YM) for a profit of +22 pips net of spread. Not bad.

I decided to cover just at 50 when the CBOT order book showed signs of rejecting that level. Remember earlier I said I would hold a bearish PPI as a position trade but get out of a bullish one? I traded my plan once again.

I will stay flat now the news has passed, and patiently wait for a signal from the 4 hour Price / DEMA cross with MACD support system I am using. If it doesn't trade today, I am up a guaranteed 22 pips.

Good trading all!
 
lurkerlurker said:
I managed to get a good trade in on there. I went long on 14025 and covered on 14047 (spreadbet prices, spread of 4 on YM) for a profit of +22 pips net of spread. Not bad.
Click to expand...

Trade analysis. I did quite well out of that, but I caught neither the top nor the bottom. My SB bid chart shows a low at 14019 and a high at 14051. This means I entered at an ask of 14025, 2 ticks above the low. I exited at 47 when at the high 51 was bid. I managed to get out 4 ticks above the high. In total, I took 22 points out of a 28 point move, net of spread. Not too bad. The CBOT YM Live Book is great for this, as you can see the orders get pulled from the bid side on news like this, and you can see the volume coming back into the book near the top. As I understand it, markets move quick on expected news because the order book becomes thin.

Thoughts?
 
Lurker, well done, your learning, wait until all indicators confirm, trading on news and more importantly in you case, sitting on your hands and not trading for tradings sake. At last your not trying to catch the turn, as I've said many times before,, let the trend develop and get on board after the move has started, its a lot safer +22 points, well done, keep it up & when I come back I might get a few tips from you

No more trading for me now, happy trading everybody, will speak in september.

Bye
 
Dinos said:
Lurker, well done, your learning, wait until all indicators confirm, trading on news and more importantly in you case, sitting on your hands and not trading for tradings sake. At last your not trying to catch the turn, as I've said many times before,, let the trend develop and get on board after the move has started, its a lot safer +22 points, well done, keep it up & when I come back I might get a few tips from you

No more trading for me now, happy trading everybody, will speak in september.

Bye
Click to expand...

Enjoy the break M8.....See u In Sept with Dow at 19000 the way things are going...:LOL:
 
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