Dow 2006

[b.haria]

b.haria,

I wish I had your confidence about the top being formed, I too think this is the case it's just that I am not as sure as you are.

Should the us indices carry on higher, at which point would you conclude that we have an impulsive rally and the double top hypothesis is invalided? Put it simply, where is your stop loss?

MTUK

You've hit the nail on the head!! This is the problem when your hitting multiyear highs as there is no history to support stops/entries.

Looking back like 5-7 years you can see enormous congestion between 11200/300 hence whatever happens the Dow is going to need a massive push to get through that. I would be a lot more cautious if it was at the start of the economic cycle (recovery - expansion) and not towards the end when all these interest rate hikes are about to kick in bigtime!

Stops... I dont really have point targets on Stop losses. Using volume I would see the way that it broke 11160 and when come back to test it again look at volume . If there is a huge VMA spike then you can be pretty certain it is not going much higher, whereas if it is at the start VMA spike up then you should start to feel some wet patches under you arms and down below!!!

If I was to place a stop it would have to be just beyond 11200, hence a successful break of this.

Traders please be wary, me included. It is options expiration day on Friday and the market can go haywire. I have been caught out a few times over the years on these days, when the following Monday the market has done exactly what you have thought/charted.

regards.

 

[mark twain uk]

dc,

where art thou?

 

[b.haria]

dc,

where art thou?

Well..... theres me looking like a muppet!!!

Maybe I should have waited until 1.30 before posting my view!!!

Anyway if the double top is true, then today is probably one of the best days to test it!!

regards

 

[mark twain uk]

b.haria,

what did I do to upset you? I simply remembered that I had not seen dc for a while, that's all

 

[b.haria]

.......not being funny b haria...but all i use is volume and price....it was obvious that the end of friday....and Tuesday were shake out and loading days....this was even more apparent on the dax than ym.....everyone should look into how pros create there little manipulations and to get traders out of long positions and on the wrong side off the market ....market direction will then become apparent
as far as finding yesterdays top....the largest exchange point...18.19....strong hands to weak....just wasn't representative enough of the previous days loading to represent conclusive exhaustion.....maybe this is where you shorted....?anyways....cheers mark j

Thanks Mark J... having a second look and can see what you mean. Still think the low volume is not looking good for a further push up. I'm inclined to think we could see a massive fail today.

I actually shorted at 19.00 because I use the VMA 5 day 60 mins, which is a lot more conclusive then Volume on own and shorter time frames.

Lets see how the day plays out but with the Lehman results and empire index, am starting to sweat in those places mentioned.

Cheers B.Haria

 

[b.haria]

b.haria,

what did I do to upset you? I simply remembered that I had not seen dc for a while, that's all

Nothing at all MTUK. Was referring to my post that I thought double top had formed just before the Lehman results and Empire Index came out!! That's what I meant about looking like a muppet.

 

[mark twain uk]

b.haria,

I'm puzzled, did you have Mark T and Mark J as one?

 

[mark twain uk]

that's clear now, I thought the muppet comment was related to my post

 

[leovirgo]

Still think the low volume is not looking good for a further push up. I'm inclined to think we could see a massive fail today.

Counting on that! If it does break out from 11180, 11200+ is in sight. Failing that, we could see 11050 soon.

 

[mark twain uk]

Hear, hear! (the 11,050 bit)

 

[macbonzo]

Fairly tight trading range thus far. I think the fact that despite Lehmans and Du Pont's results, the Dow and S&P are negative favour shorts. The rest of the day could depend on the energy sector.

On a cautionary note however. The amount of short covering that occurred in the last 90 minutes yesterday was (in my opinion) very strong and I'm not sure it's done yet. I would still keep the stops relatively tight and be careful with the "home run" trades.

 

[b.haria]

The more times it is testing 11160 the happier I seem to get... as backward as it sounds. To me it is testing the level to see the strength of resistance... which we all read about in books, but more importantly is letting the big boys soak up and short the buying pressure from the little guys buying into the media hype.

The only problem with this is the fact that the more times that it does test the 11160 level, all it will take is one slip up 5-10 points and bing the market will go racing from all the BIG BOYS short covering as well as us little guys.

One of the many situations we all "enjoy(??)" watching....

 

[Racer]

- Capital flows into the U.S. rose to $66.0 billion in January as private investors increased their purchases of U.S. equities, a Treasury Department report said Wednesday. Net foreign purchases of long-term domestic securities were $78.0 billion. Foreign official institutions bought $20.2 billion in securities, while private investors accounted for $57.9 billion, Treasury said. Private foreign investors sold $4 billion in Treasuries in January, after buying fewer Treasuries in December. December's capital inflows were revised lower, to $53.8 billion from a previously estimated $56.6 billion.


and

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...810-4B4E-B3BD-265AB9AFAF6D}&siteid=mktw&dist=

 

[macbonzo]

We have the Beige Book out at 7.00pm (2.00ET). This could be interesting vis a vis any mention of inflation. All indices are negative. The yield on the 10 year bond is back up at 4.75

 

[b.haria]

Well there was nearly that 5-10 point slip up I was talking about!!

 

[leovirgo]

Although it is in my favor to see rapid decline, I am happy to see it touching 11180 so that most of the bullish expectations are satisfied and longs are locked in.

 

[Racer]

We have the Beige Book out at 7.00pm (2.00ET). This could be interesting vis a vis any mention of inflation. All indices are negative. The yield on the 10 year bond is back up at 4.75

and the market will move lots and lots but they will not have read it

 

[macbonzo]

Possibly. It's looking like yesterday a bit now. A hell of a lot of short covering. Emini S&P Jun 06 will be supported at 1308.25

 

[leovirgo]

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Economic activity "continued to expand" in most of the U.S. Federal Reserve's 12 regional districts in January and February and employment strengthened, but labor costs and retail prices remained under control, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.
According to the Fed's Beige Book, a summary of economic activity prepared for use at the central bank's next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 27 and 28, most districts described the expansion as "moderate or steady."
San Francisco and Dallas reported robust activity, while Richmond, Va., and Philadelphia reported more moderate gains.
The Fed said that business contacts "generally reported ongoing input cost pressures," with energy prices "mentioned frequently."
However, those pressures didn't appear to spill over into consumer prices, with the Fed stating that "prices at the retail level increased at only a moderate rate."

 

[macbonzo]

Nobody ever said this game was easy.