Dow 2006

tradesmart said:
Mom – you might find it useful to use the 9/16 period SMA’s (yellow/blue) on the hourly chart to make sure that you’re trading on the right side of the trend – I won’t be looking for long term shorts until they cross-over to signal a supply/demand change (note that the lower crossover at 11050 (futs) was the ‘long’ signal)

Regards

Thx TS, made the mistake of relying to much on divergence and ignored the fact it was trending strongly.
 
the 3 p'....patience,patience and again patience

let's not trade our strongly held views but let the market lead us

as someone said the markets can stay irrational far longer than we can stay solvent

im still out and i've taken a ringside seat to enjoy the spectacle til monday
 
Your right, of course. I would also had discipline, sticking to your plan and having the humility to admit you have got it wrong. Too many traders (myself included from time to time) get fixed ideas in their heads and ignore the obvious i.e. the market has broken out of its trading range on the upside.
 
Well what can I say....

Add another 1 to the times I have been caught out by options expiry.

Yesterday produced two significant selling surges... but it didnt retrace back on them. I know Mark J calls this shakeouts.... maybe he has a different system to me when trading volume (obviosly more successful given yesterdays result!!!) but I would call this 'delayed volume reaction"; this means the market is postponing a downside reaction to the accumulated selling volume. This is possibly due to the approaching March options expiration session on Friday.

Add the two significant selling surges to the other couple this week and well you know what I think.

Having said this, I would strongly recommend not going short at mo looking for 200 points as I thought yesterday (albeit 200 pts in a couple of days). I wouldnt probably enter any positions on a long term basis in the next couple of days, more scalp trade.

Its starting to p*** me off the number of times I have been caught due to options expirations. I always say I will not trade in the week, more look for a few points here and there, but with our lifestyles... work, family etc... you always end up forgetting about the Qtr end and dont find out til Wednesday before!!
 
Jobless claims edge higher
Initial claims of 309,000 highest so far in 2006

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - New applications for state unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 309,000 in the week ending March 11, the highest level since December, the Labor Department said Thursday.
 
b.haria said:
Well what can I say....

Add another 1 to the times I have been caught out by options expiry.

Yesterday produced two significant selling surges... but it didnt retrace back on them. I know Mark J calls this shakeouts.... maybe he has a different system to me when trading volume (obviosly more successful given yesterdays result!!!) but I would call this 'delayed volume reaction"; this means the market is postponing a downside reaction to the accumulated selling volume. This is possibly due to the approaching March options expiration session on Friday.

Add the two significant selling surges to the other couple this week and well you know what I think.

Having said this, I would strongly recommend not going short at mo looking for 200 points as I thought yesterday (albeit 200 pts in a couple of days). I wouldnt probably enter any positions on a long term basis in the next couple of days, more scalp trade.

Its starting to p*** me off the number of times I have been caught due to options expirations. I always say I will not trade in the week, more look for a few points here and there, but with our lifestyles... work, family etc... you always end up forgetting about the Qtr end and dont find out til Wednesday before!!


You may need to consider, the move in the last 3 days has been something other than options. We have made a move from 10922 to 10250 in 4 trading sessions. We have broken out of our trading ranges to the upside on both S&P and the Dow. Of course option expiry brings about volatility, but the market has made a near 360 point move up in a very short time.

Of course I would be looking to go short today, but only for 40 - 50 points.
 
If you sit and watch the tape on either the S&P or Dow futures, each time the market hit a new high, there is a "wall" of computerised buy orders absorbing any sellers. It was quite evident yesterday evening and Tuesday evening but even this early they are evident. You keep thinking they are done then they come back again and again.
 
I still think the move yesterday was options related, it usually is, we'll get confirmation next week
 
Pat494 said:
Please consider the value of the Dow future 11184 compared to the Dow 11104 that's 80 points. Why there is such an unusually large difference I don't know but I do think it is significant. Oil I expect.............

Thx frugi for the explanation ( 13/3/2006) but looks as if I was right.
 
mombasa said:
3 of my shorts got closed at 11,200 whilst I wasn't looking. Still have 3 more in place but it's gonna be tight.

The support trend line is becoming a bit parabolic which is another reason this can't go on.

Mind u, I've been saying that for a while now :(

Will need to stick more dosh into my account if it does start dropping tho. I'm maxed out.
US markets seem to be on fire at the moment.
Got stopped out on a speculative short around 11175 yesterday and then missed my long entry position :(
Hope that you've closed out your 3 remaining shorts otherwise it could prove to be tough.
 
kriesau said:
US markets seem to be on fire at the moment.
Got stopped out on a speculative short around 11175 yesterday and then missed my long entry position :(
Hope that you've closed out your 3 remaining shorts otherwise it could prove to be tough.

can't - so deeply in the red that if i close now my account will be zilch. I just have to hang on.

This is getting crazy - that parabolic line is more like a banana now !!!
 
Just to relieve some trapped bears ( including me ).. here it is a reminder of how hard it can fall once the bubbles burst... :eek:
 

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Given the outperformance of the European indices in 2006, the US has quite a bit of catching up to do...
 
so, is that a 123 forming on the 5 min?

just clutching at straws .....

who the hell is buying this thing at this level after such a rise .....
 
mombasa said:
so, is that a 123 forming on the 5 min?

just clutching at straws .....

who the hell is buying this thing at this level after such a rise .....

Euphoric bulls will buy something that looks like it is moving up with strength... look at GOOG.. that has huge p/e but it didn't stop them buying it and buying it
 
Best way to get an objective view on the market is close all positions and THEN look at the charts...
 
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