Dow 2006

If we don't see meaningful a pullback start by 20:45 today, we might be looking at the first
signs of a downtrend...
 
mark twain uk said:
A bad trading day for me, I closed my shorts too early and went long expecting the traditional pull back, got stopped out, went long again and will probably be stopped out before the close, it looks very much like a trending day. After all the bear talk over the last few weeks I lost the bottle today and unless there is a rally into the close I will end up in the red. Doh!
It happens to all of us ( at one time or another in trading career ) cheers... !
 
karmit said:
If we don't see meaningful a pullback start by 20:45 today, we might be looking at the first
signs of a downtrend...


meaningful = a classic "30 points in 5 seconds" rally.. telltale sign of big boys pumping it up...
 
karmit said:
problem is - trailing stops of small players doesn't matter in front of dumping by the really big ones :|

and today it does look like the big boys are upto mischief (again)...


Having said that, I do hope it doesn't fall that much today!... I'm looking to short again starting 12200 :) ...

btw... I do wish to see 12360 again.

By trailing stops I only meant allowing the trade to breath - just in case there's more downside to go. I'd been waiting so long for this moment I thought it would be a shame to miss it by being too.....nervy!

I only want to see 12360 when I'm long.. :cheesy:
 
well... that close of play performance doesn't look good at all to me... interesting times ahead...
 
Agree - could be a turning point....... the vix not only surged but once again held the gains....
We are not there yet few more days gains in vix needed ..........but it seems ominous.

Like everyone else glad to see the vol return.
 
andycan said:
es still a little shy of target
a pop and drop is the play im looking for

25 & 50 day moving averages have provided good support for me and today the 25 day MA was broken significantly.

If the 12100 support level doesn't hold then I think the DOW will drop all the way down to the 12000 with little resistance. MACD, RSI & Stochastics all support this view.

I think we have some way to go. However, will pause and wait for the 12090 to be broken first before opening new short positions.

I would also guess there will be a dead cat bounce prior to the festive season but not what people have been writing about or expecting as I don't see the economic conditions supporting the move. A lot of hype and cash with no substance. M&A will not lift the doom and gloom in the market. The US retail figures support this view. Less people shopping but those who are have spent more. That doesn't bode well in my book.

The $ollars demise doesn't help the situ. If foreign banks don't support the $ we can give it a long kiss all the way to £1=$2 by March time. :LOL:
 

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Do you see tomorrow as a day of rest before more downside or do you expect tomorrow to carry on as today?

Hi Mark
I expect today to be down up down I am not going long just waiting for a price to go short
 
Atilla said:
25 & 50 day moving averages have provided good support for me and today the 25 day MA was broken significantly.

If the 12100 support level doesn't hold then I think the DOW will drop all the way down to the 12000 with little resistance. MACD, RSI & Stochastics all support this view.

I think we have some way to go. However, will pause and wait for the 12090 to be broken first before opening new short positions.

I would also guess there will be a dead cat bounce prior to the festive season but not what people have been writing about or expecting as I don't see the economic conditions supporting the move. A lot of hype and cash with no substance. M&A will not lift the doom and gloom in the market. The US retail figures support this view. Less people shopping but those who are have spent more. That doesn't bode well in my book.

The $ollars demise doesn't help the situ. If foreign banks don't support the $ we can give it a long kiss all the way to £1=$2 by March time. :LOL:
let me clarify

a pop and drop is what i expect
meaning we could have a little move up and then a drop
this could happen in todays session or in a couple of days as the session goes by the chart reveals what it wants to do
im not disagreeing that more downside is required as im still short es from 1407.50 area
but from my perspective i look at geometric and wave structure and the move down to 1379/1380 cash basis would be the minimum require target from there it could bust through or bounce either way it's my road map my min target nothing more
the high on the 22nd i had pegged as a high quite a while a go which i posted in a fibonacci discussion
i also expected the es to go to 1455 area but that did not materialise but the timing none the less was the key factor
everything points to a good correction (i have posted charts)
with that said now it needs to prove its self

also my road map points to dollar index going to 81-82 whist the euro to 1.32/1.33 and then reversal
 
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dc2000 said:
Hi Mark
I expect today to be down up down I am not going long just waiting for a price to go short

Similar views here, only I see an up, down, up scenario, I have a cheeky long with a tight stop loss, I hope to cover it a bit higher then here and then short any rally that fizzles
 
just to put some numbers to that, my preferred entry is 12219 Dec about 12192 cash and would ideally like to see an early drop to 094/093 in the cash
 
dc2000 said:
just to put some numbers to that, my preferred entry is 12219 Dec about 12192 cash and would ideally like to see an early drop to 094/093 in the cash

You're too good for me, so I got stopped out and am now long again from 12090 and 1376 cash, with the tightest of stop losses. Funny psychology really, after being a bear for months and only selling the rallies, I now seem to develop a passion for buying the dips.
 
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mark twain uk said:
You're too good for me, so I got stopped out and am now long again from 12090 and 1376 cash, with the tightest of stop losses. Funny psychology really, after being a bear for months and only selling the rallies, I now seem to develop a passion for buying the dips.


You are a contrarian perhaps?

We should know todays direction by around 3 - 4 pm.

I think we need retracement to at least 20% on the Fibonacci (12000) before a respectable bounce.

Time will tell all...
 
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