Dow 2006

Hi all,

Closed out all my indices shorts on the Friday dip, I am flat at the moment trying to get a clearer idea about whether the friday dip was a bear trap or the beginning of something more serious.
 
mark twain uk said:
Hi all,

Closed out all my indices shorts on the Friday dip, I am flat at the moment trying to get a clearer idea about whether the friday dip was a bear trap or the beginning of something more serious.

Interstingly my system gave me the same sell signal for Friday as it did on May 17th. However with the low volume nothing much happened; where as on May 17th the Dow fell by over 220 points from the previous days close. Suffice to say it doesn't give these signals often - in fact the last one was May 17th, and before that January 20th. So now I'm wondering if it was a rougue signal or if in fact there will be another one generated soon. I'll have to wait and see.
 
morning all, out of Dow short as well at 12,270 for +31.

dont like the look of the higher low forming on the euro indices.

welcome aboard the week Jilly. you sticking around?
 
FetteredChinos said:
morning all, out of Dow short as well at 12,270 for +31.

dont like the look of the higher low forming on the euro indices.

welcome aboard the week Jilly. you sticking around?

Hi FC,

Yes, I'm sticking around - like a bad penny! :cheesy:

Does anyone know what time the US markets closed on Friday. CMC stopped trading at 18.30 GMT, but was that the time the market actually closed or did it cease trading earlier?
 
official market hours were until 6pm, but i think there was out of hours trading until 7.30pm , not certain, but i think that was the case.

good to have you back JB :)
 
JillyB said:
Does anyone know what time the US markets closed on Friday. CMC stopped trading at 18.30 GMT, but was that the time the market actually closed or did it cease trading earlier?

Yes I think so, the YM Futures were still trading upto 6.30 on my Tradestaion charts.
 
Thanks for that chaps, it makes quite a difference to my system. Instead of it being 12,269 at 6.30pm at 6.00pm,it was 12,282.

Hey FC, how did the exam go last week? When do you get to know the results?
 
went ok, better than last time (it was a resit), and i only just failed first time around, so quietly confident.

was all about "Risk and Control Strategy". comes in useful with regard to trading actually :)

dont find out til end of Jan so I just have to forget about it until then.

it was exam 16 out of 17, and I cannot wait til i get them all over and done with. Pain in the ****, the lot of them!


what positions have you currently got JB? are you still using that Bollinger strategy?
 
I'm using the Bollinger method on the Cable trades - on a 1hr chart - looking for inside candles.

On the Dow I'm still using my system based on the high, low, close of the previous day together with today's open.

At the moment with the Dow around 12,264, this is saying that we will have an initial sell (I can't give a target yet until I know what the open is) and then we will have a buy trade to just short (about 10 points) of yesterdays high.
 
Bummer of a day for me. First part of the trade went fine, but I was expecting a turn at around 12,248. I got in on a buy and sure enough it started to go up and before long I found myself in profit. Now my achilles heel has always been taking small profits and not letting the profits run - so when I was +5 and +10, I thought no, I'm not going to do this again. I'm going to trade my plan.

Pooh sticks!!!!! (I'm not wanting to offend anyone, but it wasn't actually this that I uttered, but I think the post would get deleted if I actually typed in what was said.) Needless to say I do a really good impression of Mutley (from Dasterdly & Mutley - stop the pigeon) when I'm cursing under my breath!

Out at -43 - forgot my stop as well! The crummy thing is that if I'd reversed the trade when I got out, then I would just about have made all that loss back.

There is support now showing on the 4hr chart at 12,179 -93. Perhaps it will bounce here - although past experience shows that when it drops so dramatically in the first hour and a half then there isn't usually a reversal the same day.
 
FetteredChinos said:
well that was my 12,210 target hit, so im now long from there..

looking for 12,300 again really.

fc
Looking for kiss of death? or going to a new high?
 
seems to be stalling here though.

at this point i would like to draw your attention to my "long only Dow system >85% win rate" thread in the systems forum.

it looks for a down day after the 24th of the month, and then holds for a first profitable close before month end.

it hasnt had a losing trade for several years.

odds therefore suggest a close higher from this level at some point before the start of december
 
this high printed by es on the 22nd is a geometric high
i would expect it to hold for a little bit longer
but good luck on your trade
 
JillyB said:
Interstingly my system gave me the same sell signal for Friday as it did on May 17th. However with the low volume nothing much happened; where as on May 17th the Dow fell by over 220 points from the previous days close. Suffice to say it doesn't give these signals often -

Jilly - I thought there might be something special in the fact that your system gave you a rare signal - and combined with european weakness I took the plunge with 12300 stp.......
Thanks Very much..... for giving me an idea.
Regards Hook Shot
 
FetteredChinos said:
seems to be stalling here though.

at this point i would like to draw your attention to my "long only Dow system >85% win rate" thread in the systems forum.

it looks for a down day after the 24th of the month, and then holds for a first profitable close before month end.

it hasnt had a losing trade for several years.

odds therefore suggest a close higher from this level at some point before the start of december
Entry should be taken near the close, right? Let the bear roam free for now.. :cheesy:
 
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