Dow 2006

[JillyB]

Here's a thought for you FC,

4hr chart on the Dow. If the 12 - 4pm candle (body length) is greater than 60 points then the next candle (4-8pm) will be a continuation of this trend. Again if you trade with a stop of 30 it works quite well - 2 losses since May. However it doesn't generate that many trades.

This is the trade in it's simplest form but you can also look at candle body lengths between 35 and 60 points and then look at the 8am - 12pm candle to see what this has done and combine the two to know whether the trend at 4pm will continue or reverse.

So far from the beginning of May its netted 44 trades - 36 wins and 8 losses (win ratio of 81.8% and nett points (after spread) of 1650. That's for the 6 months up until the end of October.

 

[Hook Shot]

Looks like Trend line support on spx around 1385 ? just in case nobody's realised.... doubtful

 

[FetteredChinos]

Here's a thought for you FC,

4hr chart on the Dow. If the 12 - 4pm candle (body length) is greater than 60 points then the next candle (4-8pm) will be a continuation of this trend. Again if you trade with a stop of 30 it works quite well - 2 losses since May. However it doesn't generate that many trades.

This is the trade in it's simplest form but you can also look at candle body lengths between 35 and 60 points and then look at the 8am - 12pm candle to see what this has done and combine the two to know whether the trend at 4pm will continue or reverse.

So far from the beginning of May its netted 44 trades - 36 wins and 8 losses (win ratio of 81.8% and nett points (after spread) of 1650. That's for the 6 months up until the end of October.

great stuff there Jill, i presume that is both trading long and short?

 

[andycan]

Looks like Trend line support on spx around 1385 ? just in case nobody's realised.... doubtful

natural support HS
check the ABC up on the 60
this move down is 0.5 rt of the b low and 0.707 of the a low
fits nicely in a square

 

[catracho]

big question is - is this move down the BEAR trap or......is it the "buy the dips" BULL trap.....NDX still in it's uptrend channel from JULY...DOW may be breaking it (depending on where it closes -

 

[catracho]

chart DOW

 

[Hook Shot]

Time for rally ? 3 drives down to 120ish

 

[Hook Shot]

natural support HS
check the ABC up on the 60
this move down is 0.5 rt of the b low and 0.707 of the a low
fits nicely in a square

Cheers growler

 

[andycan]

scrap that, es is more inclined to the 0.786
i have stop 1389.25
way too boring to watch now
watching CL and NG and the grains should have a short soon

 

[JillyB]

great stuff there Jill, i presume that is both trading long and short?

Yes, either long or short.

Interestingly though, it's not been performing as well last month, or this, as it has done in the past - May, June and July were outstanding for it. But then again neither has my Dow system. It seems they're both following the same pattern with it looking as though this month will be the Dow systems worst on record. The win rate is holding above 78% - but only just after today's loss.

It's day's like today when I feel like giving up on the systems altogther. I know other traders who say that long term, systems like my Dow one, will not work as they are more mechanical trading than discretionary and ultimately the markets will change in nature. I just hope it's not correct.

 

[karmit]

closed shorts for a decent 100 pips today... covered some of those losses!

waiting and watching...

 

[dc2000]

turned out nice again

"largest one day fall for three years" just to get it in before CNBC

 

[karmit]

turned out nice again

"largest one day fall for three years" just to get it in before CNBC

ugh! hope it doesn't fall 350 points in just one day! - will be kicking myself for closing those
shorts so early...

what was that again? "fear and greed"... hmm

 

[dc2000]

only another 110 to go

 

[hobby]

& do you know what...the last hour could be a ride& a half! I'm still opening shorts even at these levels (my last one placed 12126), as IMHO if this 12,120 level gives, a run down below 12,100 is almost given! (though it's fair to say I'm glued to the screen!)

 

[Hook Shot]

ugh! hope it doesn't fall 350 points in just one day!

Sorry Karmit - will have to disagree with this view and there are probably loads of others trailing stops who will back me up! :cheesy:

 

[karmit]

ugh! hope it doesn't fall 350 points in just one day!

Sorry Karmit - will have to disagree with this view and there are probably loads of others trailing stops who will back me up! :cheesy:

problem is - trailing stops of small players doesn't matter in front of dumping by the really big ones :|

and today it does look like the big boys are upto mischief (again)...


Having said that, I do hope it doesn't fall that much today!... I'm looking to short again starting 12200 ...

btw... I do wish to see 12360 again.

 

[leovirgo]

I presume FC will be going long from here..

 

[mark twain uk]

A bad trading day for me, I closed my shorts too early and went long expecting the traditional pull back, got stopped out, went long again and will probably be stopped out before the close, it looks very much like a trending day. After all the bear talk over the last few weeks I lost the bottle today and unless there is a rally into the close I will end up in the red. Doh!

 

[2468steve]

surprisingly little short covering in last 1/2 hour....down again into close/tomorrow ??

cheers