You're so right ....
Karmit........ I'm with you on that one .... but for me ....... I'm really wanting the dow to rally first then flop to allow dax to get off the floor first .......... perhaps..
alternatively a false break on dow tonight then a rally would make it easy money for dax longs.
Sod's Law sezz neither set up will materialise
karmit said:
Karmit........ I'm with you on that one .... but for me ....... I'm really wanting the dow to rally first then flop to allow dax to get off the floor first .......... perhaps..
alternatively a false break on dow tonight then a rally would make it easy money for dax longs.
Sod's Law sezz neither set up will materialise
Hook Shot said:Karmit........ I'm with you on that one .... but for me ....... I'm really wanting the dow to rally first then flop to allow dax to get off the floor first .......... perhaps..
alternatively a false break on dow tonight then a rally would make it easy money for dax longs.
Sod's Law sezz neither set up will materialise
So.. are we saying...
DOW closing at ~12530 tonight and DAX starting to go near 6715 tomorrow..
before dropping back again after US open..
Or "best case"... DOW dropping to 12400 tonight and DAX opening quite low tomorrow before dropping to sub 6620
I'm short DAX from 6730 (& been adding to position)... Initial target: 6560
karmit said:
Sort of ...........
Not knowing what positions you had ...I was thinking it was a bit late .... (for me) to be looking to short the dx whilst is was pretty close to the closing level and relatively "low". Cos that train had already left the station imo... but you got on at a good time so that's fine.
No I was thinking if someone did want to short lowly dax it would need to rise first to reduce the risk of a reversal biting one's head off... i.e failed rally to provide somewhere to put a stop ... but you know all this anyway...and I'm just waffling..........
Levels that interest me are Friday's low.... 6650 if that gives way....Oops !
catracho
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so where to now for DAX? (and other markets as well)..looks like we will get a test of the highs again soon..key is whether we break through and hold above or not...if a break through and support found above recent highs we may get the next leg up to test 6850-6900... or else.. afailure and a sell off (finally)..
So either wait for break and go long...or sell short near highs (with tight stop)...or in other words..just wait !
So either wait for break and go long...or sell short near highs (with tight stop)...or in other words..just wait !
The Waiting Game
Catracho - waiting can be a painful business but often very profitable...as you know
We got marginal new highs Thurs with a move to 6771Dax cash and change then a dive down to test 6700.Daxcash - where we had a little bounce before closing.
Friday there is likely to be some spillage with weak US but it still looks to me like the early weakness today could be a buying opportunity... even if it extends into afternoon.
We could go as deep as 6625ish on daxcash which would equate to around 100 pts down on day..... more likely we'll stop above 6650-55 (but who really knows ?).
If we are to test the lows of this week 6625ish then we would like to see weak rally that fails ... to get shorts in place at low risk....
However, I'm looking to buy this dip but if we get the set up then I'll ride it down... we are currently quoted around 40pts down already ........ hence my preference for dip-buying :cheesy:
Have a good day - and congrats on those who plundered the Dow yesterday... that delayed reaction before eventual decline was a gift from above!
HS
Catracho - waiting can be a painful business but often very profitable...as you know
We got marginal new highs Thurs with a move to 6771Dax cash and change then a dive down to test 6700.Daxcash - where we had a little bounce before closing.
Friday there is likely to be some spillage with weak US but it still looks to me like the early weakness today could be a buying opportunity... even if it extends into afternoon.
We could go as deep as 6625ish on daxcash which would equate to around 100 pts down on day..... more likely we'll stop above 6650-55 (but who really knows ?).
If we are to test the lows of this week 6625ish then we would like to see weak rally that fails ... to get shorts in place at low risk....
However, I'm looking to buy this dip but if we get the set up then I'll ride it down... we are currently quoted around 40pts down already ........ hence my preference for dip-buying :cheesy:
Have a good day - and congrats on those who plundered the Dow yesterday... that delayed reaction before eventual decline was a gift from above!
HS
catracho
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Hook Shot said:We got marginal new highs Thurs with a move to 6771Dax cash and change then a dive down to test 6700.Daxcash - where we had a little bounce before closing.
Friday there is likely to be some spillage with weak US but it still looks to me like the early weakness today could be a buying opportunity... even if it extends into afternoon.
We could go as deep as 6625ish on daxcash which would equate to around 100 pts down on day..... more likely we'll stop above 6650-55 (but who really knows ?).
If we are to test the lows of this week 6625ish then we would like to see weak rally that fails ... to get shorts in place at low risk....
However, I'm looking to buy this dip but if we get the set up then I'll ride it down... we are currently quoted around 40pts down already ........ hence my preference for dip-buying :cheesy:
Have a good day - and congrats on those who plundered the Dow yesterday... that delayed reaction before eventual decline was a gift from above!
HS
Sounds like a good "trading map" for the day...
also will be looking at buying a good dip..with caution imprinted in the back of my head! If we are getting a trend change, buying the dips will be put on hold..and sell any rally !! If you read Mclaren..
www.mclarenreport.net.au/articles/articles/115/1/January-22-2007-mclarenreportnetau/Page1.html
he outlines possible scenarios for DAX etc..key for a big fall imo are the US mkts - DOW trading below 12330, NDX below 1750...with CONVICTION...
Good luck and good trading !
firewalker99
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Hook Shot said:Part II - The set is there for ride down if anything fails.... .........
And that anything might well be the New Home Sales at 1600pm... fasten your seatbelts!
firewalker99
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Hook Shot said:Yep who needs SatNav..........
Firewalker - spot on mate
Just that pesky Dow12450 to go and it's hard hat time ..... but with first 45min approaching could be tricky...
Indeed Hook Shot... it's pushing lower but it's Friday... not a good time imo for a big move
I've attached 1 hour chart of DAX and YM...
Attachments
Hi guys, sorry to interupt but today was my first day trading the dax for real cash and I loved it. I normally trade the er2 but want to switch to the dax as i find it starts earlier, meaning i can finish earlier. Anyway my question is was today a normal day for the dax in terms of volatility and range, and are most days on the dax similar to today. Hope so as my scalping system worked great today.
many thanks and really appreciate any insights you may have,
jason
many thanks and really appreciate any insights you may have,
jason
firewalker99
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jayjay121 said:
You can get a good measure of the volatility by checking the average daily range.
Volatility is a cyclical phenomenon, with periods of range contraction and range expansion.
For scalpers, I think the opening of the US markets, and especially on ER2 can be a quick way to gain some profits... if you're good at it... DAX seems to offer less of those opportunities, but does tend to react heavily on news or figures.
