Dax

[firewalker99]

Range break

Today we travelled in a small 10-point range before breaking to the upside.
I was lucky today as I anticipated a break to the upside and managed to get some points off that. I didn't squeeze the most out of it, but still enough to make it worth the wait!

 

[catracho]

Looks like DAX will be making it's move soon...do we go to new highs? Or resume the downtrend from 6770... 15 mins and 60 mins chart attached..

 

[Pat494]

For my penny-worth I still fancy UP on an EOD basis. There may be a small down before the spring up though.

 

[Hook Shot]

For my penny-worth I still fancy UP on an EOD basis. There may be a small down before the spring up though.

Good Call
Not sure if Dow is "undervalued" or Dax is getting ahead of itself a bit ..... the divergence is pretty weird ....

 

[rustic1]

looking for a high today & low into early next week then up into 15th/16th

Big dive with other markets . Look at FTSE today. Dax seems to be on its own train at the moment ,
very volatile like you see at tops.

 

[catracho]

Look at FTSE today. Dax seems to be on its own train at the moment ,
very volatile like you see at tops.

yes dax has a mind of it's own...but beware - in 2000 it also carried on up to new highs 2 -3 months after FTSE and DOW topped
see chart

 

[rustic1]

well worth keeping in mind

 

[Hook Shot]

My dream is for new high on Dax cash which fails...
But I'll settle for new highs and another positive day making SIX in a row...
More than SIX positives is relatively rare ...

 

[Hook Shot]

This probably means nothing ..... but Dax has now posted a higher low 6 days running... with pre market indicating 6890 for Daxcash that means it's now ~ 27pts above Monday's lows... !!

 

[firewalker99]

low volatility

These kind of conditions give little room for profits! With the average daily range shrinking, I'm expecting some kind of range expansion move that takes us lower. We've had an amazing run up in the last week which took us almost 250 points higher :|

I wonder what US has in store for us.
We have Trichet and the European intrest rate tomorrow, that might be a market mover, but until then it seems we are treading water.

Attached: 1 month hourly chart and 3 month daily chart

 

[wasp]

..... it seems we are threading water.

Cool! How do you do that FW?





EDIT: Sorry for the disruption chaps, I'm bored and cable just won't stop going the same way today!

 

[firewalker99]

Cool! How do you do that FW?

lol, well spotted
unfortunately I cannot let you in on the secrets


btw, have you relocated to New Zealand?


Edit: we are bored too, DAX is coming to a standstill

 

[wasp]

lol, well spotted
unfortunately I cannot let you in on the secrets


btw, have you relocated to New Zealand?

Well I'm not joining no club to find out

I certainly have, I moved out just before Christmas and have no desires to return, unless of course they won't let me stay here!


Hows the DAX treating you these days?

 

[firewalker99]

Well I'm not joining no club to find out

I certainly have, I moved out just before Christmas and have no desires to return, unless of course they won't let me stay here!


Hows the DAX treating you these days?

So it's permanent? Well, you sure could have picked worse places to live. Best of luck there!

I must say I started 2007 pretty good, and since then I feel I'm getting better at understanding the market and at sometimes getting a feel for the flow of buyers/sellers (demand/supply). I'm pretty content with the progress I've made since I came to T2W (still only 8 months ago now). I just need to work on a little more discipline (you're the man!) especially when the market isn't offering anything worth taking the risk (like yesterday and today)....

Any ambitions on trading something else next to cable :?:

 

[wasp]

So it's permanent? Well, you sure could have picked worse places to live. Best of luck there!

I must say I started 2007 pretty good, and since then I feel I'm getting better at understanding the market and at sometimes getting a feel for the flow of buyers/sellers (demand/supply). I'm pretty content with the progress I've made since I came to T2W (still only 8 months ago now). I just need to work on a little more discipline (you're the man!) especially when the market isn't offering anything worth taking the risk (like yesterday and today)....

Any ambitions on trading something else next to cable :?:

Great stuff, thats good to hear. I think the more time you spend watching and analyzing and trying things and lots of trial and error it starts to make sense. The longer spent the more you learn and its an ongoing process. Its great learning and understanding more each day.

As for discipline, think of it this way... If I waver from my own rules = no beer tonight! works for me!

I'm still enjoying cable and taken to swing trading it as well now ,plus still trade the Nordics too and now the Kiwi but as for non FX, I have just opened a local CMC account for my sins with the goal off offsetting all my expenses by trading the related companies (telephone, energy, water, beer etc) but thats a work in progress...

You? just trading the DAX or others too?

 

[Pat494]

So it's permanent? Well, you sure could have picked worse places to live. Best of luck there!

:

I spent 4 years in and around Auckland in the 60s as probably the laziest student of that Uni. Happy memories living in Takapuna etc.

 

[Hook Shot]

This probably means nothing ..... but Dax has now posted a higher low 6 days running... with pre market indicating 6890 for Daxcash that means it's now ~ 27pts above Monday's lows... !!

That 6d streak came to an abrupt end with a sharp move to break Monday's lows marginally. I'll use that technique again... interesting
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FW99 - yep dax should give more of that monster move back but I fear that we wont get much of a rebate.... dax is hard to call at the moment ......

 

[firewalker99]

Great stuff, thats good to hear. I think the more time you spend watching and analyzing and trying things and lots of trial and error it starts to make sense. The longer spent the more you learn and its an ongoing process. Its great learning and understanding more each day.

As for discipline, think of it this way... If I waver from my own rules = no beer tonight! works for me!

I'm still enjoying cable and taken to swing trading it as well now ,plus still trade the Nordics too and now the Kiwi but as for non FX, I have just opened a local CMC account for my sins with the goal off offsetting all my expenses by trading the related companies (telephone, energy, water, beer etc) but thats a work in progress...

You? just trading the DAX or others too?

I only allow beer in the weekends (and Friday nights)

Next to DAX, I'm also looking at CAC40. I tried FTSE for a while, but it seems to has a mind of it's own. And now and then if I see a high probability setup on the e-minis I wouldn't hesitate to trade that also... forex is still a whole different world for me...

 

[firewalker99]

Finally

This has been a strange week as I felt the need to short and calling 6950 a top two days ago... To my surprise we rose from the lows of Thursday back to open higher today (Friday) and climb back to 6950... It then drifted sideways and just when we all were heading for the weekend, DAX started throwing everything out... the scenario I wanted to happen played out. Now if we follow the rest of my scenario we should be heading lower on Monday and preferable open with a gap down heading towards my target 6825 area (somewhere next week). But let's break 6880 first!

So let's hear your thoughts on this plz

 

[firewalker99]

Start of the week

We started where we left of on Friday, heading for 6875 first where there is still plenty of support left. I'm not expecting any major shifts today (new events or figures) but am wary that last week showed declining volumes on what is starting to look an intermediate top. :|