Dax

[Hook Shot]

The God's were with me last time ........ within a week we had made a swing move south of 100pts - into 6490's.....The bounce from there flew to test highs just above 6600 last week but couldn't really make progress afterwards... people probably had other things on their minds.

The old proverb "never short a dull market" ....once again proved true as last trading day of the year ended with a whimper ... though still leaving the Dax within 40pts of the consolidation at the highs...........

First day of 07 and we went ballistic blowing away the highs and almost hitting 6700.
At 6681 or so we are motoring and know no fear........however it's still near my 6650 potential resistance level ....so I'm still watchful.

Where to from here ? Haven't the foggiest.......... the pattern seems to indicate it wants to keep on running like an antelope being chased by a leopard....... We all know what happens 9 times out of 10 so ..... I'll wait ........... The leopards know the odds favour them in a one on one with antelope ......especially one as mature as this one. Yes..... I'll wait because sooner or later it will run too far and at the very min will want to test the 6600ish zone...as it pauses for breath. In the meantime, I'm now looking towards 6800 as the magic of round numbers kicks in.

Sidebar: I seem to be doing a lot of waiting these days waiting for the Nikkei, Crude, Bp, Hsbc, Glaxo.......and of course the anti-dollars. It's hard ..... I want to be doing things but my Guru tells me the path to profit is patience .... and for 2007 I'll listen to him more often.

Now back to my Yoga.

Edit: I'm also waiting for Cotton... will be worth the wait
HS

 

[firewalker99]

The God's were with me last time ........ within a week we had made a swing move south of 100pts - into 6490's.....The bounce from there flew to test highs just above 6600 last week but couldn't really make progress afterwards... people probably had other things on their minds.

The old proverb "never short a dull market" ....once again proved true as last trading day of the year ended with a whimper ... though still leaving the Dax within 40pts of the consolidation at the highs...........

First day of 07 and we went ballistic blowing away the highs and almost hitting 6700.
At 6681 or so we are motoring and know no fear........however it's still near my 6650 potential resistance level ....so I'm still watchful.

Where to from here ? Haven't the foggiest.......... the pattern seems to indicate it wants to keep on running like an antelope being chased by a leopard....... We all know what happens 9 times out of 10 so ..... I'll wait ........... The leopards know the odds favour them in a one on one with antelope ......especially one as mature as this one. Yes..... I'll wait because sooner or later it will run too far and at the very min will want to test the 6600ish zone...as it pauses for breath. In the meantime, I'm now looking towards 6800 as the magic of round numbers kicks in.

Sidebar: I seem to be doing a lot of waiting these days waiting for the Nikkei, Crude, Bp, Hsbc, Glaxo.......and of course the anti-dollars. It's hard ..... I want to be doing things but my Guru tells me the path to profit is patience .... and for 2007 I'll listen to him more often.

Now back to my Yoga.

Edit: I'm also waiting for Cotton... will be worth the wait
HS

Hi HookShot, thanks for your analysis. I posted mine in the other Dax thread (Daily Dax).
I was wondering why we don't ask the admins to reconcile these two threads into one? What'd you (and others) think?

 

[Hook Shot]

Hi HookShot, thanks for your analysis. I posted mine in the other Dax thread (Daily Dax).
I was wondering why we don't ask the admins to reconcile these two threads into one? What'd you (and others) think?

Perhaps........ on one level it would make perfect sense.

However, by reason of consumer choice it might be better if we continue separately. My ramblings can be a bit well "alternative" and not to everyone's taste........ some loathe it and some might even like it but that's the beauty of freedom of expression.........plurality of opinion blah blah blah. This place is like my little soap box in Hyde Park Corner....where I can generally chat nonsense which might be comphensible to some ......... nay it might even have some relevance ....or even God forbid some value.

The suggestion you make is a sensible one..... so if advised I'll retire to my journal to rant on german markets and other matters of irrelevance ........ and the thread consolidation can continue........ Seriously though, it is needed ......... but this feels like the thin end of the wedge!
Maybe I'm being a touch alarmist :cheesy:

Winston Smith

 

[Hook Shot]

Back to markets .... not sure how long for at this pitch but still............

Wth Dax's power move today...it strikes me that we are very quickly gonna run out of steam wed or thursday at this rate... Actually that's what I WANT it suits my style.

If we get stronger Asia - and I have to wonder about how long Hongkong can continue flying near term ... but if Asia is firm then a flyer at the open in Dax over 700/730 could be very tasty short.

To be clear I want a surge in the first hour to consider that trade..... a more placid open would be unwanted -- sure it might set up long opp later if US goes higher but the Best scenario for me would be a flyer at the open Wed.....which gets rejected.........any moves after that would be a bonus .... but an opening surge would be a gift and will be gratefully snapped up!

 

[firewalker99]

Perhaps........ on one level it would make perfect sense.

However, by reason of consumer choice it might be better if we continue separately. My ramblings can be a bit well "alternative" and not to everyone's taste........ some loathe it and some might even like it but that's the beauty of freedom of expression.........plurality of opinion blah blah blah. This place is like my little soap box in Hyde Park Corner....where I can generally chat nonsense which might be comphensible to some ......... nay it might even have some relevance ....or even God forbid some value.

The suggestion you make is a sensible one..... so if advised I'll retire to my journal to rant on german markets and other matters of irrelevance ........ and the thread consolidation can continue........ Seriously though, it is needed ......... but this feels like the thin end of the wedge!
Maybe I'm being a touch alarmist :cheesy:

Winston Smith

No, please don't retire to your journal, the more opinions the better. Yours are certainly appreciated I was just trying to get some more reaction and I thought perhaps we could attract more replies if those who follow the other thread would also follow this one and vice versa. Anyway, nevermind let's just keep it this way

 

[Hook Shot]

Right then.....
I want to be bearish haha but for that posture near term I need a failed rally today..... so far so good I hope as we delve into Friday's range....

However, my bearish stance may have to wait until later in the week if we don't get the "failure" alluded to. The market made highs last week and has only had 2 down days so far which is still in counter trend country so really we should get an inside day - and up bar on tuesday. If we get an up bar today unlikely but always possible then that's mega bullish - as you know...

Some will play this bounce here .... but I'll probably hold off ........ as I think it's too risky (for my style) and the percentage shot is to short this market when the signal comes........ after all we are near the highs - and Fidelity have told us they have taken out puts... and their track record of calling markets is better than mine......

Happy Trading which ever way you play this one

 

[Hook Shot]

Possibility of a failed rally - @ 6630 zone - low risk either way..

 

[dcraig1]

Possibility of a failed rally - @ 6630 zone - low risk either way..

6630 on the index or the march future ?

 

[firewalker99]

Right then.....
I want to be bearish haha but for that posture near term I need a failed rally today..... so far so good I hope as we delve into Friday's range....

However, my bearish stance may have to wait until later in the week if we don't get the "failure" alluded to. The market made highs last week and has only had 2 down days so far which is still in counter trend country so really we should get an inside day - and up bar on tuesday. If we get an up bar today unlikely but always possible then that's mega bullish - as you know...

Some will play this bounce here .... but I'll probably hold off ........ as I think it's too risky (for my style) and the percentage shot is to short this market when the signal comes........ after all we are near the highs - and Fidelity have told us they have taken out puts... and their track record of calling markets is better than mine......

Happy Trading which ever way you play this one

I'll join you on that bearish mood! Wasn't quick enough to catch the up move this morning, but shorted at 6670 (that's futures price).

 

[Hook Shot]

6630 on the index or the march future ?

Sorry dcraig1 - cash I don't know what else people are trading feb, march.... june ??
Always cash as far as my comments are concerned. :cheesy:

 

[firewalker99]

Sorry dcraig1 - cash I don't know what else people are trading feb, march.... june ??
Always cash as far as my comments are concerned. :cheesy:

mar 07, only trimestrial futures on dax...

 

[Hook Shot]

Maybe but spreadies will offer you a mix - or have done in past....
To be honest being a wimp I'm playing June - experience has taught me better safe than ..........

 

[karmit]

Short DAX 6607, limit 6567, stop 6634

 

[stellarog]

Short Dax 6621

 

[stellarog]

out b/e

 

[firewalker99]

Short DAX 6607, limit 6567, stop 6634

hi karmit, and stellarog

why not put up some analysis accompanying your trade so we can benefit from it?
maybe you guys have some interesting information? I'm sure we can all learn from one another...

 

[Hook Shot]

For Tuesday 9th Jan 07

Yesterday, I was bearish and looking for a failed rally to get short. We got the failed rally I got short but it seemed over quicker than it started. hitting 6580cash... The market clawed it's way back to 6630cash or thereabouts and goes into Tuesday more bullish than bearish.

I do my best work when I believe price is extended one way or another. As we look at Dax we are in the middle of nowhere and so the risk to my capital is too high. I'm not saying I couldn't punt and make some points tomorrow......but I'm not a day trader - that's not my strength.

Consequently, I'll wait for price to become extended one way or the other and then look to get involved.
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I believe Dax remains in an uptrend (for now) but has now had a 3d pbk to 6580.... we should move up tomorrow making first up bar since highs. I don't know what happens after that ......... we'll just have to wait and see.

However, if this is just a counter trend we should challenge the 6700+ highs this week ..... not that far away really.....

My comments tonight might seem a touch contradictory considering my post earlier today .... let me clarify.
Dax is high and so not best place to get bullish in my view..hence my bearish bias. But we have had a pullback which did not fall apart....... so I have to assume the market is not ready to give in yet and must wait a bit longer for my big chance to sell short - with confidence.

A long winded way of saying I need better prices to consider shorting........... and that means nearer 6700 or even above. If I wanted to be long (which I still don't) the opportunity was at today's lows - not now!

All the best whatever your strategy or timeframe.

HS

 

[firewalker99]

For Tuesday 9th Jan 07

Yesterday, I was bearish and looking for a failed rally to get short. We got the failed rally I got short but it seemed over quicker than it started. hitting 6580cash... The market clawed it's way back to 6630cash or thereabouts and goes into Tuesday more bullish than bearish.

I do my best work when I believe price is extended one way or another. As we look at Dax we are in the middle of nowhere and so the risk to my capital is too high. I'm not saying I couldn't punt and make some points tomorrow......but I'm not a day trader - that's not my strength.

Consequently, I'll wait for price to become extended one way or the other and then look to get involved.
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For a daytrader there were several opportunities to get short indeed, but over the medium or longer term, each effort to go lower seemed fenced off by a return higher and we closed near the highs, leading us to a higher open today...

Looks like we cleared some stops yesterday at that WRB ...

 

[Dinos]

Afternoon all, agree with most posters comments, really in no mans lands, I trade mainly weekly positions, but given success/failure will enter additional positions. Looking at the bigger picture, rather than a daily poisition, my weekly charts show a neg div on macd and breakthrough, slow stochastic also crossover and falling sub 80, fast stow, double top neg div, crossover, still above 80. RSI overbought but no in divergence

Whilst there is perhaps still strength in the market, I'm looking to short the market on the rises. I'm not into predicting how far or fast it it move, unfortunately, imho, if the djia breaks through the 600 level, then I believe the DAX would once again head in a upward direction.

If anybody has alternative readings on their charts, I would be grateful for their opinions

 

[Hook Shot]

cheers firewalker and dinos.......

Today looks like a break of yesterdays 6606 lows... not difficult call to make BUT the significant thing -(maybe ? ) is that a down bar today make Tues a one day counter trend and gives the poss of fast move down......... only the poss for now lets see market action. Maybe we will see 6500 this week after all ? 72pts below here as I speak.

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As a sidebar if markets do get out of jail free today - the Nikkei should be the place to be currently trading just above 16924/36 on cash in after hours..