Dax

[firewalker99]

cheers firewalker and dinos.......

Today looks like a break of yesterdays 6606 lows... not difficult call to make BUT the significant thing -(maybe ? ) is that a down bar today make Tues a one day counter trend and gives the poss of fast move down......... only the poss for now lets see market action. Maybe we will see 6500 this week after all ? 72pts below here as I speak.

Indeed, we had that break finally, but a very quick recovery...
6600 gave us the psychological barrier and was rejected twice, but on the third time volume kicked in and we plunged to 6575... I didn't expect to be back above 6600 so soon... but more action coming up with US trade balance figures...

 

[Hook Shot]

Sorry my mistake firewalker I was speaking about cash......... I think your levels referred to march futures ?

Either way things are going very well.......

 

[Hook Shot]

Lovely stretch coming into the DAX cash as we near 6666 - hope you bears are ready...

 

[Hook Shot]

Okay ..... now it must clear 6710 cash for new highs this week................ it can run but it can't hide

 

[pssonice]

failed breakout derived from simple lines

in time

 

[pssonice]

same in dow30, just the beginning of what dax showed

in time

 

[Hook Shot]

in time..... !
That's the spirit!
Yoga - style

 

[Hook Shot]

Over the last 3m friday's tend to have a more bearish bias.
Toss of coin whether up or down ... but the size of down days are on average almost twice as big
This is very quick check.... but interesting perhaps ... especially as Dax was on fire into the close!

 

[Hook Shot]

Dull day expecte in Europe ......... may pick up if Dow makes new highs but generally can't see plenty of upside before then .... We may get marginal new highs on dax after slight pullback but don't think it will be crazy enough to put on another surge early on...

Germans can be a bit iffy about Friday's as mentioned yesterday so that may provide an opportunity....

And before anyone starts battering my email The Germans are fine - had a few German lady friends in my time love Boris Becker....the Oktoberfest...............Black forest gateau.(Can't remember how to spell german name).....maybe Pss could help
....................... and they put on a great world cup this year... So there!!

Tchus!

 

[firewalker99]

who could have figured that move yesterday? right back to the highs from the beginning of the month...

a nice long opportunity presented itself on the retracement from the highs... now we might retest it, but I expect some downwards momentum later on... unless Dow can put even more bullishness on than we might aim for 6800 next week... much to my surprise I might add

 

[Hook Shot]

Dull day expecte in Europe ......... may pick up if Dow makes new highs but generally can't see plenty of upside before then .... We may get marginal new highs on dax after slight pullback but don't think it will be crazy enough to put on another surge early on...

Tchus!

Seemed to call that one pretty well.......a nothing day really unless you caught the early lows.

Monday - very difficult to read....FOR ME ..
CASH is up a bit to low 6730's .... but without US trade who knows.. ?

Equities remain strong so I expect 6800/850CASH could be hit this week..... probably not much use to anyone but i'm struggling...

Hopefully, some weakness in asia could provide an opportunity to get underneath the dax early on but for now .............. keine Ahnung!

Auf Wiedersehen!

Ps I'll be sniffing around SAP since it took a bath last week

 

[Hook Shot]

the party goes on ?

We almost hit 6750 on cashDax and then peeled off to 6672 today before recovering late day.

Dow is as I write within 35pts of new all time highs set today Wednesday .....and providing
asia is reasonably well behaved Dax could make new highs Thursday....and even 6800 this week.

With US acting so well it's hard to think Dax will not hang in there and move higher...

A surprise slap from asia-pacific with Japanese rate rise and or hawkish statement may hurt Nikkei and possibly spread to Europe.... other than that you would expect Dax to forge higher...... remember when it's in the mood it can be pretty macho so with pricing now around 6703 any slippage could be bought....... potentially :cheesy:

Dax is showing a touch of weakness very near term and right here is not my fave trade would prefer Japan or US as they are still "up there". But for value hunters it may be worth a look ..... if world markets cooperate.

NB. Key Caveat..... Asia-Pacific does not catch a cold............. if that happens ..... US indicies should be prime "beneficiaries" of bearsh sentiment overnight.......

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Sidebar: US is so strong it's tempting to short ............... on the basis that it can't continue... but it has for over 6m. Consequently, we should probably "prepare" for further gains.... Market positioning (chart) on US makes it 50/50 on up/down for Thursday.

 

[hobby]

Ouch...just took that big spike up the dungfunnel.....OUCH.....the DAX takes no prisoners like no other other indice!

 

[daxdaytrader]

Yes, bullish indeed. There was a nice entry at around 720 area as it broke the channel. Of course, you had to be there at the time.

 

[karmit]

Ouch...just took that big spike up the dungfunnel.....OUCH.....the DAX takes no prisoners like no other other indice!

Any idea what caused that spike?

 

[Hook Shot]

Not sure what caused the spike........ but if dow can get out of this pennant to the upside the Dax should keep flying into Monday (asia permitting) and make for a fantastic short opp.... Monday! Hopefully over 6800cash.

 

[karmit]

Not sure what caused the spike........ but if dow can get out of this pennant to the upside the Dax should keep flying into Monday (asia permitting) and make for a fantastic short opp.... Monday! Hopefully over 6800cash.

Its looking a nice starting point for a short opportunity right now... I'll be building up on this from now... target - 6505

 

[stellarog]

Any idea what caused that spike?

Looks like a short squeeze to me

 

[stellarog]

And back down to where it was. :cheesy:

 

[hobby]

And back down to where it was. :cheesy:

& thank heavens for that....they had my pips in a vice, but I've been given a get of jail free card courtesy of Stateside.