Daily trading advisory

GUESS DE EMINI SP FOR 19 OCTOBER 2007


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Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 19-February-2008

Markets end the week with moderate gains despite warnings and new evidence that the economy is weakening.

Markets rallied strong during yesterday's shortened Globex session in a continuation of late Friday's rally, if the indexes manage to sustain the Presidents Day rally, be ready for a reversal from our resistance levels at 1368.75-1370.00 levels, but if the E-mini SP manage to break up above those levels, the rally could continue with resistance at 1375.00-1376.00 and then 1380.00-1382.00. a close above those areas would indicate a continuation of the rally during the coming sessions.
If the indexes give back yesterday's gains before the opening, expect more sideways trading until a solid break out of the ranges is seen.



WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 22–FEBRUARY-2008

R3 1410.00
R2 1398.00
R1 1365.25
PP 1347.50
S1 1337.50
S2 1323.00
S3 1296.59

ECONOMIC DATA

None

WEEKLY RECAP

On Monday, after reaching strong support at 1320.00, the E-mini SP and all the other indexes recovery their early loses and closed slightly positive for the session. Tuesday, before the market opened, Buffett’s offer to assume $800 billion municipal bonds in liability resulted in a huge gap up for the markets opening, the early strength reached our 1363.00-1364.00 markets turning point, but gave back half of its earnings during the afternoon, the E-mini SP closed at 1349.75 and the Dow cash settle with solid gains at 12373.

Better than expected Retail Sales numbers for the month of January gave the indexes another boost as the rally from the 1330.00’s level continue with strong pace but with low volumes. The E-mini SP opened at 1360.00 and rally immediately to 1364.75. The E-mini SP reached 1367.00 before pulling back to 1361.00, and unable to break bellow support and with the help of a strong E-mini Nasdaq punched to new highs during the last hour of trading reaching 1370.50 while the E-mini Nasdaq got as high as 1829.00 and the E-mini Russell to 720.90. All of the indexes gave back part of their gains before the close and settle well bellow fair value at 1364.00 on the E-mini SP, 1820.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.90 on the E-mini Russell. The Dow cash added another 178 points closing at 12552.

Thursday’s session, the indexes opened on a strong note, but unable to reach the nightly highs,the indexes started to pull back. Just with the release of Bernanke’s speech, the indexes started a downward move which reached our 1354.00-1353.00 support area on the E-mini SP and 1798.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq. The E-mini SP bounced back to our updated resistance area on the 1361.00-1362.00 zones where our readers took advantage and entered short. The downside pressure took the index down to the 1352.00-1350.00 support level. After trying hard to push lower, buyers stepped in and manage to get as high as 1357.75 where another wave of selling pushed prices to new intraday lows exactly to our third support band on the 1348.50-1347.00 levels. The lows were bought with enthusiasm but failed once more above the 1358.00 where a double top resulted in a late sell off moving the indexes lower and after placing higher lows the markets closed a few points above the daily lows. The E-mini SP lost 12.75 points for the day, the e-mini Nasdaq gave back 26 points and the E-mini Russell settle with a loss of 15.2 points. The Dow cash lost 175 points closing at 12376. Downside risks to growth quoted by Fed Chairman Bernanke before the Senate Banking Committee. Bernanke, was stating the obvious, yet the market chose to put a negative spin on his remarks, notwithstanding the inference that further rate cuts from the Fed are likely.

The release of the economic data on Friday, that included the reading in the New York Empire State Index which came out at its lowest level since May 2003 and the lowest consumer sentiment reading reported by the Univ. of Michigan since February 1992, along with a warning from Best Buy pushed the markets down early Friday. The lower opening on the E-mini SP managed to get reversed during the last two hours of the session as February option expiration contributed to maintain the markets afloat. The E-mini SP ended the session almost unchanged and the E-mini Nasdaq lost 7.75 points for the session. The indexes ended the week with gains of 1.4% for the SP and Dow cash and .7 for the Nasdaq.

Markets will be closed Monday in observance of Presidents Day.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened lower for the session as new signs of weakness in the economy, and Greenspan’s commentaries about recession ended the last short covering rally. The E-mini SP opened at 1344.75 and after a pop up to our resistance level at 1346.50 was sold reaching the 1338.75 area. Unable to trade bellow the Globex lows, the index rallied all the way back up to 1349.50 while all the other indexes failed to make new intraday highs. Another wave of selling pushed prices down to 1339.50 on the E-mini SP where support acted correctly and the index bounced back up to 1346.00. Another attempt to the downside resulted in a double bottom at 1338.50 where the E-mini SP started a nice short covering rally that reached Thursday’s settlement at 1351.50 in an effort to close above the 1350.00 level for the February option expiration. The E-mini SP settle up .25 points, the E-mini Nasdaq gave back another 7.75 and the E-mini Russell lost 4.4 points. The Dow cash closed with a loss of 28 points at 12348.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The fact that the index moved higher from obvious support but failed to sustain a 7-10 days rally opens once more the possibility of an important move lower, and, the chart should tell us, if that move will take prices first bellow the 1342.00-1340.00 area and then bellow the base pattern at 1332.00-1330.00 then the way to the January lows will be open.”

Friday’s long tail and large volume showed buying support, but that can be a consequence of the February option expiration as the indexes remain in a consolidation move forming a triangle pattern, and only a clear breakout will give us indication of a medium term direction. Last week rally from the 1320.00 area to the high around 1370.00 with only one close “above” our 1363.00-1364.00 area leaves the E-mini SP futures vulnerable to a move down, and the pullback from the 1370.00 high to the Friday’s low at 1338.00 which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement form the weekly lows makes me think that in the short term the market is headed for lower prices. The triangle pattern continues to develop at overall lows and this is another bearish sign.
The action on all the indexes is getting more and more tightly which increases the probabilities of a strong breakout, but when occurs, the indexes will have to deal with their previous support and resistance areas.

The outlook for the E-mini Nasdaq looks more bearish, and despite the fact that we can have a one day rally, the index should move lower in the short term, the first signal for a move that could take prices down to new lows will be a close bellow 1755.50.

TODAY’S SESSION

For today’s session, the first hour should tell us if the volume is setting up a continuation of last Friday late rally that could result in a move to resistance on another quite session, and that will give us the ideal multi day downward move that we are looking for.

So, if the market opens lower but turn positive, don’t fight the trend and follow the move, but if the indexes gapped up at the opening beware of a pullback from resistance that reaches settlement before turning back up.

There is resistance at 1355.00-1356.75 on the E-mini SP, 1794.00-1796.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 704.50-705.20 on the E-mini Russell. An upside move that stalls at those levels should offer a good short entry for 6-8 points on the E-mini SP, but if the market push higher the 1360.75-1362.25 on the E-mini SP, 1802.00-1804.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 709.10-711.00 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. Those areas should offer strong resistance and set up a move down. If those don’t stop a post Presidents day rally then last week highs is all the markets should run before getting back in troubles at 1368.75-1370.00 on the E-mini SP, 1815.00-1816.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.40-717.50 on the E-mini Russell.

There is initial support at the pivot levels in case the markets rally since the beginning of the session, but if they trade slightly negative buyers should step in at 1346.50-1345.50 on the E-mini SP, 1780.00-1778.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 698.70-697.40 on the E-mini Russell, those are pivotal for a rally into today’s session . If the market trades bellow those areas, 1341.00-1339.50 on the E-mini SP, 1771.00-1770.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 694.20-693.50 on the E-mini Russell must hold or the chances for a wide range down day will be open. If those levels can not hold the selling pressure, then Friday’s lows at 1337.00-1335.75 on the E-mini SP, 1756.00-1754.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 687.00-685.50 on the E-mini Russell will be the only step before putting in jeopardy the 1331.00-1330.00 base built early last week. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1368.75-1370.00 1815.00-1816.00 715.40-717.50
Resistance 2 1360.75-1362.25 1802.00-1804.00 709.10-711.00
Resistance 1 1355.00-1356.75 1794.00-1796.00 704.50-705.20
PIVOT 1348.50 1785.50 701.20
Support 1 1346.50-1345.50 1780.00-1778.50 698.70-697.40
Support 2 1341.00-1339.50 1771.00-1770.00 694.20-693.50
Support 3 1337.00-1335.75 1756.00-1754.50 687.00-685.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1390.01 1848.54 731.28
1385.24 1841.46 727.92
1377.50 1830.00 722.50
1369.76 1818.54 717.08
1364.99 1811.46 713.72
1357.25 1800.00 708.30
1349.51 1788.54 702.88
1347.13 1785.00 701.20
1344.74 1781.46 699.52
1337.00 1770.00 694.10
1329.26 1758.54 688.68
1324.49 1751.46 685.32
1316.75 1740.00 679.90
1309.01 1728.54 674.48
1304.24 1721.46 671.12



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1364.50 1793.25 704.80
AS DAILY LOW 1344.00 1763.25 690.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 20-February-2008


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI
8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Housing Starts
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes.


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Tuesday session opened sharply higher reaching our 1370.00 resistance area after a surprisingly holiday rally. The E-mini SP reached 1369.75 on the Globex session and, once the markets opened got sold to the 1360.50 area. A feeble bounce to our important 1363.00-1364.00 area posted a double top and the index pushed lower reaching a low at 1353.75. The downward move was leaded by the E-mini Nasdaq which never traded near to the Globex highs. The e-mini SP rallied back to 1364.25 where another top was met with strong selling driving the index down to 1345.75. a double bottom resulted in a strong short covering rally pushing all the index back up to the 1355.00 area on the E-mini SP,1882.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq, that’s a 20 point rally from its daily lows and 706.80 on the E-mini Russell. All the indexes settle well above fair value. The Dow cash lost 10 points for the day and closed at 12337 giving back more than 170 points from its daily high.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Markets rallied strong during yesterday's shortened Globex session in a continuation of late Friday's rally, if the indexes manage to sustain the Presidents Day rally, be ready for a reversal from our resistance levels at 1368.75-1370.00 levels. Friday’s long tail and large volume showed buying support, but that can be a consequence of the February option expiration as the indexes remain in a consolidation move forming a triangle pattern, and only a clear breakout will give us indication of a medium term direction. Last week rally from the 1320.00 area to the high around 1370.00 with only one close “above” our 1363.00-1364.00 area leaves the E-mini SP futures vulnerable to a move down, and the pullback from the 1370.00 high to the Friday’s low at 1338.00 which is the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement form the weekly lows makes me think that in the short term the market is headed for lower prices. The triangle pattern continues to develop at overall lows and this is another bearish sign. The outlook for the E-mini Nasdaq looks more bearish, and despite the fact that we can have a one day rally, the index should move lower in the short term, the first signal for a move that could take prices down to new lows will be a close bellow 1755.50.
Yesterday’s huge reversal from key resistance levels carries on clear bearish signs, on the E-mini SP the late short covering rally that met the mid point of the triangle pattern at 1355.50 looks headed for a downside break as the index has been rejected already four times from that area and has not been able to close two consecutive days above the 1363.00-1364.00 turning point. The picture on the E-mini Nasdaq looks more clear as that index has a lot of room for a move down, and this strong short covering rallies are a classical example of wild moves on a bear market.

The sky rocketing commodities prices are acting as a catalyst for another big sell off, and if they will fall, the indications won’t be the end of the inflationary cycle but the lower demand as a consequence of a weakening economy.

The tricky pattern triangle formation that has been developed during the last weeks shows signs of a near breakout, and all the false breaks that have occurred during the last week will come to and end as the clear direction for the coming weeks will be established. My personal bias calls for lower prices during the coming weeks that drive the E-mini SP near to the January 22 lows. The wide downward channel formed in the Dow cash could result in a 800 point move to the downside.

For today, there is an important series of economic data to be release before and after the opening, CPI and housing numbers, weekly crude inventories and late at night the FOMC minutes, the indexes could hold for another couple of days before the breakout comes into play, so if the same action that has been seen during the last days, where weakness is bought and early strength is sold makes both sides tradable with a bearish bias. So wait for the wild swings to lose their momentum and enter short or long against resistance and support with tight stops, but take in consideration that the picture looks more bearish than bullish.



TODAY’S SESSION
.
On a lower opening that holds near to yesterday’s lows or break marginally bellow them but reverses back above support, try to get long with tight stops as only if the market is in a very bad shape, yesterday settlement won’t be traded, if that long trade works out trail your stops or get out at initial resistance.
First resistance areas are at 1358.00-1360.00 on the E-mini SP, 1786.00-1788.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 709.20-710.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the market gets to those levels, it will be a gift for the shorts, but if there is enough strength to punch higher, we could see the critical levels at 1364.00-1365.00 on the E-mini SP, 1804.00-1806.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 714.10-714.80 on the E-mini Russell. A pop up to these areas should offer a second great short trade as yesterday those were the reversal points. But if the optimism is back and yesterday sells off was only a one day profit taking, the E-mini SP should reach the 1368.50-1369.00, while the E-mini Nasdaq get as high as 1814.00-1816.00 and the E-mini Russell test the 720.00-721.10 levels.
There is strong support around yesterday’s lows at 1345.75-1344.00 on the E-mini SP, 1770.00-1768.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 698.80-698.10 on the E-mini Russell, if those hold, a good long entry could be trigger. Bellow those levels, last Friday lows at 1337.00-1335.75 on the E-mini SP, 1755.00-1753.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 691.10-690.60 on the E-mini Russell should be all that another move down may extend if the indexes are still range bounded. Those levels are extremely important to maintain the markets out of trouble, if those levels can not hold then the 1330.00-1328.00 on the E-mini SP, 1748.00-1746.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 685.70-683.50 on the E-mini Russell will have to be immediately reversed or we will be in the way to the 1310.00-1300.00 area. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1368.50-1369.00 1814.00-1816.00 720.00-721.10
Resistance 2 1364.00-1365.00 1804.00-1806.00 714.10-714.80
Resistance 1 1358.00-1360.00 1786.00-1788.00 709.20-710.60
PIVOT 1356.25 1788.00 706.40
Support 1 1345.75-1344.00 1770.00-1768.00 698.80-698.10
Support 2 1337.00-1335.75 1755.00-1753.00 691.10-690.60
Support 3 1330.00-1328.00 1748.00-1746.00 685.70-683.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1405.31 1916.46 738.86
1399.94 1902.54 735.24
1391.25 1880.00 729.40
1382.56 1857.46 723.56
1377.19 1843.54 719.94
1368.50 1821.00 714.10
1359.81 1798.46 708.26
1357.13 1791.50 706.45
1354.44 1784.54 704.64
1345.75 1762.00 698.80
1337.06 1739.46 692.96
1331.69 1725.54 689.34
1323.00 1703.00 683.50
1314.31 1680.46 677.66
1308.94 1666.54 674.04





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1374.00 1801.25 717.90
AS DAILY LOW 1350.00 1742.25 702.60​








Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 21-February-2008

CPI higher than expected, housing markets still deteriorating and commentaries by the Fed pointing risk for the economy resulted in a volatile session where markets recovered from early loss

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed
10:30 AM Crude Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened sharply lower and after a test of our support areas on the E-mini SP at 1337.00-1335.75 the index bounced back up to 1344.25. Another successful test of the 1339.00 level resulted in a sideways pattern that finally broke up to new highs during the two hours of trading driving the E-mini SP to 1354.00, another pullback that held above the 1350.00 level prompted the E-mini SP to new highs at the 1358.00 area despite the higher oil prices. Once the FOMC minutes were released the market fell back to the 1350.00-1348.00 area and after bottoming at 1350.00 gave longs the opportunity to join the party and finally the index broke up to our 1364.00-1365.00 area where the rally ran out of steam and sold off to the 1355.50 level bouncing back into the end and closing at 1359.00 on the E-mini SP, 1789.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 711.70 on the E-mini Russell. The Dow cash reversed strongly from its early loses and closed with a solid 90 points gain at 12427.00


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Yesterday’s huge reversal from key resistance levels carries on clear bearish signs, on the E-mini SP the late short covering rally that met the mid point of the triangle pattern at 1355.50 looks headed for a downside break as the index has been rejected already four times from that area and has not been able to close two consecutive days above the 1363.00-1364.00 turning point. The tricky pattern triangle formation that has been developed during the last weeks shows signs of a near breakout, and all the false breaks that have occurred during the last week will come to and end as the clear direction for the coming weeks will be established. For today, there is an important series of economic data to be release before and after the opening, CPI and housing numbers, weekly crude inventories and late at night the FOMC minutes, the indexes could hold for another couple of days before the breakout comes into play, so if the same action that has been seen during the last days, where weakness is bought and early strength is sold makes both sides. On a lower opening that holds near to yesterday’s lows or break marginally bellow them but reverses back above support, try to get long with tight stops as only if the market is in a very bad shape, yesterday settlement won’t be traded, if that long trade works out trail your stops or get out at initial resistance.”

We came into yesterday’s session looking for a reversal of the early direction and with a plan to trade both sides of the markets. Despite the positive tone and rally on all the indexes, the wild swings offered good trading opportunities for longs and shorts.
Yesterday’s rally from the early lows looks that can continue on its way up as many shorts must be trapped, but none of the late moves has been able to continue. This kind of pattern is showing a distribution in a wide range, that as I wrote yesterday should break out of the ranges during the next few days. The lack of direction made difficult to establish a bias, so both sides of the range should be tradable until the break out occurs. I have been calling for the 1363.00-1365.00 area on the E-mini SP as a turning point to establish a trend in the index, and, consecutive failures at those levels place any advance on jeopardy, but if the index will break solidly above that area a move to the 1400.00’s should be seen. On the other side of the coin, the pressure that higher oil prices, the failure of the E-mini Nasdaq to sustain a rally and the almost imminent break out of the triangle pattern on the Dow cash, with a reversal early this week from the 12500 area made also possible a downside break.

Without any particular direction to follow and the markets showing indecision, waiting for the wild swings to run out of momentum near resistance and support could be the best way to go. My 1363.00-1365.00 area on the E-mini SP may offer a good shorting opportunity on the early going of the session, but if it gets punched additional short covering could be seen. If the market trades down during the opening but get reversed from bellow the 1351.00-1349.50 support area and crosses above the 1352.25 pivot point could offer a good long entry if the ranges will be maintain during today’s session. Keep a close eye on the Initial Claims data before the market opens as I suspect that if the index breaks down should come from labor market data, additional to this, half hour after the opening we get the Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed readings that will result in a strong move, and one hour after the opening the oil inventories numbers, despite the good effect that higher oil prices have on the oil stocks, higher oil prices will add pressure to the consumer.



TODAY’S SESSION
.
KEY resistance areas are at 1363.00-1364.50 on the E-mini SP, 1792.00-1793.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 713.40-715.10 on the E-mini Russell. If the market gets early to those levels, it will be a good short shot, but if there is enough strength to punch higher, we could get to Tuesday’s Globex highs at 1370.00-1371.25 on the E-mini SP, 1804.00-1805.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 718.30-720.00 on the E-mini Russell. A rally to those areas should offer a second short trade as they were strongly sold early this week, but if the trend is up, the E-mini SP could reach the 1377.00-1379.00, while the E-mini Nasdaq get as high as 1814.00-1816.00 and the E-mini Russell test the 724.90-725.50 levels.

There is support around yesterday’s last lows at 1356.00-1354.00 on the E-mini SP, 1779.00-1777.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.00-706.00 on the E-mini Russell, if those don’t hold, a test of yesterday’s triple bottom at 1351.00-1349.50 on the E-mini SP, 1771.00-1769.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 702.20-701.00 on the E-mini Russell should be all that another move down may extend if the indexes are still strong. Those levels are extremely important to maintain the markets out of trouble, if those levels can not hold then the 1341.00-1339.00 on the E-mini SP, 1762.75-1760.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 694.80-692.00 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold or the indexes will be placed in a vulnerable position. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1377.00-1379.00 1814.00-1816.00 724.90-725.50
Resistance 2 1370.00-1371.25 1804.00-1805.00 718.30-720.00
Resistance 1 1363.00-1364.50 1792.00-1793.00 713.40-715.10
PIVOT 1352.25 1780.00 706.30
Support 1 1356.00-1354.00 1779.00-1777.00 708.00-706.00
Support 2 1351.00-1349.50 1771.00-1769.00 702.20-701.00
Support 3 1341.00-1339.00 1762.75-1760.00 694.80-692.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1416.53 1864.57 742.99
1408.97 1854.43 738.61
1396.75 1838.00 731.50
1384.53 1821.57 724.39
1376.97 1811.43 720.01
1364.75 1795.00 712.90
1352.53 1778.57 705.79
1348.75 1773.50 703.60
1344.97 1768.43 701.41
1332.75 1752.00 694.30
1320.53 1735.57 687.19
1312.97 1725.43 682.81
1300.75 1709.00 675.70
1288.53 1692.57 668.59
1280.97 1682.43 664.21





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1377.00 1814.00 721.60
AS DAILY LOW 1345.75 1771.00 703.00​


Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-February-2008

Market rallies from critical lows after a report says that a consortium of banks will probably announce a bailout plan for Ambac Financial that will enable it to maintain its AAA credit rating.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 25–FEBRUARY-2008

R3 1393.00
R2 1379.00
R1 1367.25
PP 1350.75
S1 1343.40
S2 1331.75
S3 1308.00

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales

WEEKLY RECAP

On Monday, the broad markets were close for Presidents Day holiday, but the shortened Globex showed a continuation of Friday’s late rally reaching levels as high as the 1370.00 on the E-mini SP futures for Tuesday’s opening session. With the opening markets get sold in a profit taking move printing an intraday low at 1345.75 on the E-mini SP and rallying into the end of the session. The Dow cash felt more than 170 points from its daily high. For Wednesday’s session, markets opened sharply lower and after a test of our support areas on the E-mini SP at 1337.00-1335.75 the index bounced back up. The successful test of the 1339.00 area resulted in a sideways pattern that finally broke up to new intraday’s highs. Once the FOMC minutes were released the market fell back to the 1350.00-1348.00 area and after bottoming gave longs the opportunity to join the party and finally the index broke up to our 1364.00-1365.00 area where the rally ran out of steam and sold off into the end closing at 1359.00 on the E-mini SP, 1789.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 711.70 on the E-mini Russell. The Dow cash reversed strongly from its early loses and closed with a solid 90 points gain at 12427. All this intraday volatility, was a direct consequence of higher than expected inflation reading, continued erosion in the housing markets, raising commodity prices and new economic projections from the Fed which included a “downgrade” of the economy and a higher unemployment rate forecast. Thursday’s session the markets opened the day with solid strength but the indexes were reversed from their early highs as the economic reports were released and sold off during the session. The manufacturing report from the Philadelphia Fed was notoriously weak indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, the major indexes sunk with the news as the report increased the fears of the economy falling into recession. All the indexes closed lower with the Dow cash losing 142 points for the session. Friday’s trading session wasn’t looking much better as the indexes were trading sharply lower but rescue talks for the bond insurers Ambac Financial sparked a 243-point turnaround in the Dow average during the week's final hour, erasing all the intraday losses. The news led to a large wave of buying and a short covering rally that left all the indexes on the plus. The indexes ended the week almost unchanged and consolidating while the indecision continues.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened slightly higher but failed to trade above the pivot point on the E-mini SP. After reaching the 1349.00 area the indexes were steadily sold taking traders by surprise which expected and opening pullback in order to be buyers for the session. The E-mini SP reached the 1331.50 area one hour after the opening, just above our support area at 1330.50-1329.00. A rally attempt pushed prices up back to 1338.00 where sellers took advantage and pressed once more the index lower to new lows just at our support areas. Finally the e-mini SP made new lows at 1327.00 while the E-mini Nasdaq pushed down to 1742.00 and the E-mini Russell to 682.60.One hour before the close a rumor about a group of banks including Citigroup and UBS were close to announcing a bailout of Ambac, resulted in a huge and quick buying wave and short covering rally which drove prices up to 1357.50 on the E-mini SP, 1783.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 698.00 on the E-mini Russell. All the indexes closed in positive territories near their intraday highs. The Dow cash finished with a gain of 96 point and settled at 12381.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The markets have been showing a complete directional indecision as higher openings are sold and early weakness is bought and the closes are on the opposite direction. This lack of confidence where the indexes are unable to develop a trend has the markets building inside the triangle pattern which is becoming increasingly more potent, as more and more traders are watching it and getting ready to follow the break out. Yesterday failure at the 1370.00 area on the E-mini SP has the chance, if today there is follow through to yesterday’s low move to print the short term high, and if that is the case open the possibility of a strong move down for this Friday. However, the distribution pattern that we have seen during the last sessions where the indexes remain in a neutral positions with only a slightly higher number of bulls, does not make me think that we are in front of a huge move down. Until now, every time that the indexes have fall, buyers came in and move the prices substantially higher, and today, it could be the exception as in my cycle analysis we are 30 days after the 1260.00’s low, and today could print another low near the 1320.00 area. For today’s session, I would like to see the E-mini SP fails on an early rally bellow my 1351.25 pivot point, or after reaching my initial resistance areas, where a great short entry could result in a 20-25 point move lower that takes the E-mini SP to its strong support at the 1330.00’s.”
For those who base their trading decisions on my daily newsletter, the market gave them the selling opportunity that we were looking for as the early run to the 1349.00 area on the E-mini SP was met with strong selling that finally found support only at the forecasted 1330.00 area from where a huge long opportunity came frtom; for those more involved in intraday very short term moves, my apologies as our updates suggested at least to failed long trades.

The E-mini SP has respected the triangle formation in the daily charts, and Friday’s late short covering rally continued to show consolidation of the index without a definitive break out of the ranges. The indexes ended the week in short term uptrend, and a continuation move to the upside looks possible, in particular this end of month week (end of month usually carries a bullish bias). The week is full of economic data and the markets have been reacting to any piece of information, so volatility should continue. I don’t discard a bullish run to the 1410.00-1420.00 area during the coming session, and if that happen it will be a great shorting opportunity. If this scenario in which the market runs to those highs does not come in play, only a break down of the 1330.00-1320.00 area will indicate another test of the January lows. The first confirmation of a possible advance to the 1400.00 area on the E-mini SP will have to be a break above our 1363.00-1364.00 area and a hold of this new support once broken on a pullback, so a gap up on Monday’s session that holds above Fridays 1355.50 closing price could offer a good long entry for a rally that has all the chances to break above the 1363.00-1364.00 area and maybe reach the 1372.50. With this bullish sentiment for Monday, short trades should be done for a quick profit and with tight stops; and if the market does not hold Friday’s settlement, and get sold early to our first support areas holding above our pivot point I will look to get long, first if the pivot holds and adding to my long position once it trades back in positive territory, in other words I will look where to be a buyer instead of a seller into the markets, as I assume many shorts are trapped at Friday’s lows. Keep also in mind that this break out scenario could take also another day.
The indexes have continued in their range bounded movement within the key triangle patterns, but a breakout may finally be upon us. In order to this expected break out to occur to the upside, all the indexes should join the party, and, I will surely go long once I see the Dow cash trading above the 12500 area, of curse with a logic stop loss order in. Take into account than an upside break above the 1370.00-1372.00 area on the E-mini SP should trigger a huge amount of stop loss order that have been built above those levels.


TODAY’S SESSION

For today’s session, an early sell off, during the first 35-45 minutes as a result of profit taking after Friday’s huge rally from the lows, or as a consequence from a bad housing market data, should offer a great long opportunity with the chances of an uptrend day, in which maintaining a long position or buying the breaks could be the best play. And if the market opens lower but turn positive, stay with the trend.

There is resistance at Friday’s highs at 1358.25-1359.50 on the E-mini SP, 1791.00-1793.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 698.00-699.50 on the E-mini Russell. An upside move that stalls at those levels should offer a quick short entry for and early short, but if the market is ok it should push higher later on the day to the 1362.50-1364.00 on the E-mini SP, 1802.00-1803.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 704.20-705.30 on the E-mini Russell. I don’t have to mention that those are KEY PIVOTAL areas, so If those don’t stop the rally, a test of last week highs at 1371.75-1373.00 on the E-mini SP, 1812.00-1814.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 709.20-710.50 on the E-mini Russell may be all the resistance in a multi day rally that take prices near or above the 1400.00’s on the E-mini SP.

There is initial support just above the pivot point at 1348.00-1347.00 the E-mini SP, 1774.00-1772.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 691.80-690.30 on the E-mini Russell, those are pivotal for an upside move into today’s session and a 25 points rally on the E-mini SP could start from those levels. If the market trades bellow those areas, 1342.50-1341.00 on the E-mini SP, 1760.00-1758.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 685.60-684.50 on the E-mini Russell must hold or the chances for a break out to the upside will start to fail. If those areas does not hold, then there will be more consolidation and the 1336.75-1336.00 area on the E-mini SP, 1743.00-1741.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 678.20-675.50 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold or a sharp drop will be on the cards. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1371.75-1373.00 1812.00-1814.00 709.20-710.50
Resistance 2 1362.50-1364.00 1802.00-1803.00 704.20-705.30
Resistance 1 1358.25-1359.50 1791.00-1793.00 698.00-699.50
PIVOT 1346.50 1769.00 692.30
Support 1 1348.00-1347.00 1774.00-1772.00 691.80-690.30
Support 2 1342.50-1341.00 1760.00-1758.00 685.60-684.50
Support 3 1336.75-1336.00 1743.00-1741.00 678.20-675.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1406.85 1851.30 726.84
1399.65 1841.45 722.86
1388.00 1825.50 716.40
1376.35 1809.55 709.94
1369.15 1799.70 705.96
1357.50 1783.75 699.50
1345.85 1767.80 693.04
1342.25 1762.88 691.05
1338.65 1757.95 689.06
1327.00 1742.00 682.60
1315.35 1726.05 676.14
1308.15 1716.20 672.16
1296.50 1700.25 665.70
1284.85 1684.30 659.24
1277.65 1674.45 655.26



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1371.75 1803.00 697.20
AS DAILY LOW 1321.75 1761.50 680.30​




Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-February-2008

Markets rally strong for second day with IBM announcing a buyback which offset higher than expected PPI data and a deep in Consumer Confidence

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 Durable Orders
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:30 AM Crude Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The E-mini SP futures opened lower as a result of the higher than expected PPI numbers. During the first half hour of trading the index reached the 1371.00 level where a wave of selling and the release of the Consumer Confidence numbers resulted in a pullback to the 1364.00-1363.00 area where the E-mini SP found support. The early recovery was led by an obvious strength on the E-mini Russell who acted strongly during all the session. The E-mini pushed solidly without any resistance and after the first two hours of the session reached 1386.75. A mild pullback to the low 1380.00s was bought and the E-mini SP spiked to its daily high at 1388.50, the E-mini Nasdaq to 1811.50 and the E-mini Russell reached 725.00. Another pullback on the indexes was bough and after printing lower highs the indexes looked like ready for a profit taking but the positive sentiment continued and the indexes bounced back closing at healthy levels. The E-mini SP gained 11.50 points for the session, the E-mini Nasdaq 11.25 and the E-mini Russell 6.20 points which pulled back strong into the close. The Dow cash broke finally the triangle formation adding 114 points and closing at 12684.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Now, the Emini SP futures broke and closed above our 1363.00-1364.00 turning points and look ready to continue higher. When we analyze the pattern of trading that started last Friday and was completed with yesterday’s exhausting move to the 1375.50 high on the E-mini SP, there is always a chance of a reversal, and if we don’t have some follow through to the upside, during today’s session, the index will clearly move down and continue to trade in a side ways consolidation move.”

The E-mini were able to continue with the late Friday’s short covering rally, and this move has been done ignoring fundamental economic data which points to a recession. The consolidation that we saw during last week at the 1330.00-1340.00 levels on the E-mini SP should be considered as a higher low on the daily charts, and if the market is able to hold a pullback, it should continue to move higher, first to the 1405.00 area with and objective of 1423.00. I wrote last Monday about the bullish bias for this week, end of month, but position traders should consider that the larger overwhelming trend bias is still bearish despite today's break above 1380.00. The way the E-mini Russell gave back more than half of its yesterday’s gains during the last hour of trading, the still lagging E-mini Nasdaq and the implosion on the VIX.X which came down more than 20% during the last three sessions, makes me think that complacency is filling the markets very fast in an economy that only shows signs of worsening. During the past I have analyze the extension in days that a countertrend rally can have in the E-mini SP index, and this rally if it will be a countertrend move in a sideways or falling market it should not exceed the 3-5 days, so this move should be consider at risk during today and tomorrow session, and if the markets fail to continue higher, yesterday’s move could be only a false break. So for today’s session a run to or near yesterday’s highs could offer a good short entry, but if the market holds a pullback to yesterday’s late lows, it could rally back near the highs in what I expect to be a consolidation or inside day after this three day old rally.




TODAY’S SESSION

.
There is STRONG resistance at yesterday’s high at 1387.00-1389.00 on the E-mini SP, 1802.00-1803.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 718.60-720.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the market gets to those levels, it will be a great short opportunity with tight stops, but if the indexes press higher, we could get to 1392.00-1393.50 on the E-mini SP, 1816.00-1818.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 726.00-727.50 on the E-mini Russell. At these levels I will wonder how much bears are still out there with the markets so stretched, and if this area coincide with the 12800 on the Dow cash be ready for a strong reversal, but if the markets are all muscles be ready for the 1396.50-1398.00 on the E-mini SP , 1824.00-1825.00 and the E-mini Russell test the 730.70-732.00levels.

There is good support at yesterday’s late lows at 1377.00-1376.00 on the E-mini SP, 1784.00-1782.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 713.00-711.40 on the E-mini Russell, if those don’t hold, a move to the next support will have to hold at the 1369.00-1368.00 on the E-mini SP, 1773.00-1771.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 706.50-705.30 on the E-mini Russell. If those areas get broken, and the indexes fall to the third support area, be ready for a reflex rally as they are pivotal. The third support levels area at 1363.00-1361.50 on the E-mini SP, 1759.00-1760.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 699.30-699.50 non the E-mini Russell. GOOD LUCK


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1396.50-1398.00 1824.00-1825.00 730.70-732.00
Resistance 2 1392.00-1393.50 1816.00-1818.00 726.00-727.50
Resistance 1 1387.00-1389.00 1802.00-1803.50 718.60-720.40
PIVOT 1378.50 1791.50 715.80
Support 1 1377.00-1376.00 1784.00-1782.00 713.00-711.40
Support 2 1369.00-1368.00 1773.00-1771.00 706.50-705.30
Support 3 1363.00-1361.50 1759.00-1760.00 699.30-699.50



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1428.55 1885.52 756.55
1422.70 1874.73 751.95
1413.25 1857.25 744.50
1403.80 1839.77 737.05
1397.95 1828.98 732.45
1388.50 1811.50 725.00
1379.05 1794.02 717.55
1376.13 1788.63 715.25
1373.20 1783.23 712.95
1363.75 1765.75 705.50
1354.30 1748.27 698.05
1348.45 1737.48 693.45
1339.00 1720.00 686.00
1329.55 1702.52 678.55
1323.70 1691.73 673.95





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1398.00 1827.00 730.70
AS DAILY LOW 1373.25 1781.25 711.20​




Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-February-2008


Durable Goods orders down 5.3% in January, Fed ready to cut interest rates again and Fannie May and Freddie Mac announcement to increase their current cap lift the markets on the early going.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM GDP- prel
8:30 AM Chain Deflator- prel
8:30 AM Initial Claims



YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The E-mini SP futures opened lower after the Durable Goods orders were released. The index fell to 1372.50 where support came in and rallied immediately to 1379.00, another two setback moves to 1374.00 were bought and the E-mini SP broke up to new highs reaching its daily high in a quick buying wave and short covering rally at 1390.00, just one point above our resistance levels. Two hours of sideways trading were spent between the early highs and 1383.50 and with the failure to trade above our resistance and unable to print new highs, the bulls finally throw away the towel pushing the index down to 1375.00.The E-mini SP reacted positively and run back up to 1384.25 before pulling back into the close as it settled at 1380.50.The E-mini Nasdaq made its daily high at 1809.75 and closed at 1800.25 while the E-mini Russell settled at 716.40 almost unchanged for the session. The Dow cash finished the session at 12694 with a gain of 9 points.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” So for today’s session a run to or near yesterday’s highs could offer a good short entry, but if the market holds a pullback to yesterday’s late lows, it could rally back near the highs in what I expect to be a consolidation or inside day after this three day old rally.”

The early part of the session gave us the expected pullback and holds near the 1376.50 Tuesday’s late lows, and once the index got back up above the 1378.00 the move to the highs was quick and strong. Despite the bullish tone on the markets, yesterday’s session was a consolidation day in a move that has not yet broke the triangle formation.
The index should be considered in a mild uptrend all the time that it does not close back bellow the 1363.00-1364.00 pivotal area and a pullback to that zone should be seen as a buying opportunity, but the lack of commitment reflected on extremely low volumes and the lagging E-mini Nasdaq does not confirm yet a possible and definitive break out the wide trading range. The 12800 resistance level on the Dow cash is as important as the 1364.00-1363.00 support area for the E-mini SP, and the positive signs seen on the E-mini Russell are a first call that we could be near a sustainable rally as small and mid caps usually get sold first when the broad index is ready to fall or get bought first when investors are coming back to the markets. This trading range should continue without a strong pullback, and if that happens, the E-mini SP should be able to break higher during the coming sessions. Yesterday I called for some kind of consolidation after the three days old rally from the 1330.00, and despite the marginal new high on the E-mini SP that’s what we got. Now, a retracement to the 1364.00-1363.00 area that holds on a close which is equivalent to a 31.8 Fibonacci pullback between Friday’s lows and yesterday’s high will be extremely bullish if it holds. This is the key if we already saw a solid low.

It will be extremely important that during today’s session even if the market makes a move lower that it keeps trading in a sideways consolidation pattern, which is what I am expecting, so both sides of the market should be tradable, that means sell once the rally stalls against resistance and buy once the downside momentum lose its steam.


TODAY’S SESSION
.
We have initial resistance at 1387.00-1389.00 on the E-mini SP, 1805.50-1807.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 719.30-720.70on the E-mini Russell. If the market gets to those levels on the early going, the rally should lose its momentum there, but if the indexes press higher, we could get to yesterday’s highs at 1390.00-1391.00 on the E-mini SP, 1814.00-1816.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.50-725.00 on the E-mini Russell where we already have a double top. If those levels are punched, then the way to the 1400.00s on the E-mini SP is open and it could find resistance at 1399.50-1401.00, while the E-mini Nasdaq gets close to it’s pivotal 1830.00 area at 1826.00-1838.00 and the E-mini Russell maintains its bullish pace getting as high as 732.70-734.80.

There is support at 1377.00-1375.50 on the E-mini SP, 1794.00-1792.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 713.50-712.10 on the E-mini Russell, if those don’t hold, a move to the next at 1371.00-1370.00 on the E-mini SP, 1782.00-1781.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.90-707.80 on the E-mini Russell should hold at least the first time that it gets tested. If those areas get broken, and the indexes fall to the third support area, will be critical that they hold on the close. The third support levels areas are at 1365.00-1363.50 on the E-mini SP, 1766.00-1764.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 701.50-699.30 on the E-mini Russell. GOOD LUCK


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1399.50-1401.00 1826.00-1828.00 732.70-734.80
Resistance 2 1390.00-1391.00 1814.00-1816.00 724.50-725.00
Resistance 1 1384,00-1385.50 1805.50-1807.00 719.30-720.70
PIVOT 1380.50 1795.75 717.10
Support 1 1377.00-1375.50 1794.00-1792.50 713.50-712.10
Support 2 1371.00-1370.00 1782.00-1781.50 708.90-707.80
Support 3 1365.00-1363.50 1766.00-1764.00 701.50-699.30



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1422.71 1862.34 750.44
1418.04 1854.67 746.76
1410.50 1842.25 740.80
1402.96 1829.84 734.84
1398.29 1822.17 731.16
1390.75 1809.75 725.20
1383.21 1797.34 719.24
1380.88 1793.50 717.40
1378.54 1789.67 715.56
1371.00 1777.25 709.60
1363.46 1764.84 703.64
1358.79 1757.17 699.96
1351.25 1744.75 694.00
1343.71 1732.34 688.04
1339.04 1724.67 684.36





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1385.00 1821.25 720.80
AS DAILY LOW 1366.25 1788.75 705.20​




Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com
 
Daily Traing Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-February-2008

GDP lower than expected and increase of 19000 applications for unemployment claims and new fears of more bank failures kept the indexes under pressure for most of the session.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM Core PCE Inflation
8:30 AM Core PCE Prices
9:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Michigan sentiment- Rev


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The E-mini SP futures opened the day with early weakness and bounced back to 1374.00 during the first minutes of the session. A pullback to 1368.50, just bellow our support area, printed a double bottom after reaching the opening lows and the index bounced back once more to 1374.00. After trading sideways between the 1371.00-1374.00 area, the E-mini SP finally broke up to new highs and got to the 1378.00 area joined in the move but the E-mini Nasdaq that tested the 1812.00 area. With Bernanke speaking for a second day, and in direct response to his speech, the indexes started to move lower making its daily lows at 1363.50 on the E-mini SP,1788.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 701.70 on the E-mini Russell. Back and forth action with higher lows on the intraday chart resulted in a short covering rally that took the E-mini SP back up to 1370.50, where another pullback to 1365.00 was bought and the index rallied all the way to 1374.75. Unable to break higher, shorts came in back and pushed the index down into the close at 1365.75 on the E-mini SP, a new low at 1784.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 703.50 on the E-mini Russell. The Dow cash closed near the lows of the session giving back 112 points and settling at 12582.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”The index should be considered in a mild uptrend all the time that it does not close back bellow the 1363.00-1364.00 pivotal area and a pullback to that zone should be seen as a buying opportunity, but the lack of commitment reflected on extremely low volumes and the lagging E-mini Nasdaq does not confirm yet a possible and definitive break out the wide trading range. It will be extremely important that during today’s session even if the market makes a move lower that it keeps trading in a sideways consolidation pattern, which is what I am expecting, so both sides of the market should be tradable, that means sell once the rally stalls against resistance and buy once the downside momentum lose its steam.”

The market gave us what we were looking for as the early weakness near our support areas triggered our buying signal for our real time subscribers, then the index rallied back up to our resistance area, sold off strongly printing its lows at 1363.50 and propelling a new rally to 1375.00.

The markets keeps trading in a wide range where higher lows and lower highs on the daily chart has respected the resistance and support areas in the triangle formation, but yesterday’s failure to move higher and the weak close place on jeopardy the rally that started last Friday. With a lot of economic data to be released today on the early going, and with the expectation that it won’t shows weakness on the economy, an early sell off could be seen. The important factor will be if the markets are capable to come back from bellow the 1360.00 area and print a low between today and next Monday. If the indexes are ready to move higher during the coming sessions, a good rally must be seen on the E-mini Nasdaq and a break through the 725.00 double top on the E-mini Russell must happen, otherwise, the consolidation move on the E-mini SP will start to look problematic.

The key for today’s session will be how the first hour lows are printed, if they are close or near to our second and third support, and hold during the hour of trading, the E-mini SP should be able to bounce back up and maybe reach the 1373.00-1374.50 area, but if those lows can not hold, the daily trend will be definitely to the downside with the risk of a serious sell off. I will watch closely for a double bottom near last Friday’s close at 1355.50 for signs of a good rally, and I will considered confirmed once the index breaks solidly above yesterday’s settlement.



TODAY’S SESSION

We have initial resistance at 1373.00-1374.50 on the E-mini SP, 1789.00-1792.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 707.90-709.00 the E-mini Russell. If the market rallies back up to those levels on the early going, it will be a great shorting opportunity, but if the indexes press higher, which I don’t think so, we could get to 1378.00-1379.50 on the E-mini SP, 1801.00-1803.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 712.50-714.00 on the E-mini Russell.. If those levels are exceeded leaded by a strong E-mini Nasdaq, then we could be back up at 1386.00-1388.00 on the E-mini SP, 1820.00-1822.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 721.60-723.00 on the E-mini Russell.

There is support at yesterday’s lows at 1364.00-1362.50 on the E-mini SP, 1781.00-1780.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 702.10-700.60 on the E-mini Russell, if those don’t hold, the risk of a downtrend day will be present. The next support levels are at 1356.00-1355.00 on the E-mini SP, 1773.00-1772.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 695.00-694.00 on the E-mini Russell. Those are last Friday’s highs, and if those hold buyers should step in, but if the indexes break lower a test of the 1351.00-1350.00 on the E-mini SP, 1763.00-1761.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 691.00-688.50 on the E-mini Russell could be on the cards. If those areas does not hold, then the indexes will be in risk of another serious sell off. GOOD LUCK


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1386.00-1388.00 1820.00-1822.00 721.60-723.00
Resistance 2 1378.00-1379.50 1801.00-1803.00 712.50-714.00
Resistance 1 1373.00-1374.50 1789.00-1792.00 707.90-709.00
PIVOT 1370.25 1793.00 707.50
Support 1 1364.00-1362.50 1781.00-1780.00 702.10-700.60
Support 2 1356.00-1355.00 1773.00-1772.00 695.00-694.00
Support 3 1351.00-1350.00 1763.00-1761.00 691.00-688.50




S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1410.62 1859.98 742.54
1406.38 1853.02 738.86
1399.50 1841.75 732.90
1392.62 1830.48 726.94
1388.38 1823.52 723.26
1381.50 1812.25 717.30
1374.62 1800.98 711.34
1372.50 1797.50 709.50
1370.38 1794.02 707.66
1363.50 1782.75 701.70
1356.62 1771.48 695.74
1352.38 1764.52 692.06
1345.50 1753.25 686.10
1338.62 1741.98 680.14
1334.38 1735.02 676.46





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1373.75 1798.25 710.40
AS DAILY LOW 1355.75 1768.75 694.80​


Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-March-2008

ISM Index increases from 44.6 to 49.3 in February; Beige Book sees continued slowdown, weak housing markets and problems for the retail sector. Oil and Gold closed at record highs deepening the dollar against the other currencies.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 PM Pending Home Sales

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The E-mini SP futures have a rollercoaster day after some good economic reports and the failure of Ambac to announce its anticipated bailout. The E-mini SP opened the day at 1331.50 and after a mild pullback to the 1329.00 area moved higher reaching 1342.25, just at our resistance levels. The index traded side ways for the next two hours and in a quick spike reached the 1345.00 level joined by the E-mini Nasdaq which popped up to 1770.75. The move was rejected and the E-mini SP pulled back to 1332.50 where a short covering rally pushed the index back up to 1338.50, at these levels sellers stepped in and the indexes sold of with the E-mini SP reaching support at our 1320.25 area and the E-mini Nasdaq getting as low as 1738.75. The double bottom invited buyers in and the index rallied all the way back up to 1333.75, retraced to the 1324.50 pivot and rallied into the end of the session closing the day at 1335.50 while the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1759.50 and the E-mini Russell at 685.90. The Dow cash ended at 12254 with a 41 points gain for the session.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The steep decline to the intraday lows and the huge short covering rally with better pace and volume seems to favor a continuation of this short covering rally at least for today and tomorrow. Yesterday break bellow the 1320’s obvious support, and the huge reversal from the lows, will have to show some continuation and follow through to make yesterday lows important, if this don’t happen, yesterday’s countertrend late rally will be only a technical reaction on a strong downtrend. If the E-mini SP can only show a weak upside move for today’s session, and tomorrow trades back lower, then the downtrend will be intact. At this juncture I favor a rally that probably could reach back the 1358.00 level before Friday’s unemployment numbers. For this to happen, the E-mini SP will have to hold and early pullback or trade in the positive territory almost from the beginning of the session. So if the e-mini SP trades lower and then trades back above into positive territory I will look to be a buyer.”

Yesterday action gave us opportunities on both sides of the market, and the E-mini SP reacted perfectly to our support and resistance levels managing to close with a slightly bullish bias. Despite the huge pullback from the highs, the indexes showed buying support during all the session and the successful test of the old support at 1320.00 is extremely positive, The rally that started from the 1307.00 Tuesday’s lows start to look better regardless of yesterday mild positive close. While the E-mini Nasdaq had its first decent day, the Dow cash got reversed from above 12300, and for this rally to continue at least for today’s session, that level will have to be broken and hold on a pullback for a continue move up to the 12500 area which must coincide once more with our 1363.00-1364.00 area on the E-mini SP. In order for this to happen the E-mini SP will have to break above yesterday’s highs and confirm later, by trading solidly above the 1348.50 level. The warning signs remain in the fact that the index rallied from the false break to the 1307.00 level and the obvious support at 1320.00, and even if the rally last for another 1-2 days there is still the risk that we are in a countertrend move and not in a new upside trend that take prices back to the 1400’s.

As I have to follow what the pattern of trading is telling me, I will look to buy early weakness or a cross from negative to positive territory, but I will avoid being long if the 1320.00 support area is broken once more. On the upside shorting the rallies all the time that the index does not break yesterday’s highs and this move up does not exceed the 2-4 days should offer the shorts a good entry price. So the market should continue to trade sideways offering good opportunities on both sides with a slightly bullish bias.



TODAY’S SESSION
.
There is initial resistance at 1340.00-1342.00 on the E-mini SP, 1762.00-1764.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 687.10-688.00 the E-mini Russell. If the market reaches those levels on the early going, be ready to enter short and buy the first 7-9 point pullback. If those levels are exceeded leaded by the E-mini Nasdaq which started to show signs of life during yesterday’s session, then we could see the 1347.00-1349.00 on the E-mini SP, 1772.00-1773.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 693.00-694.60 the E-mini Russell. If the market is strong or we are in a trend day, then it could reach 1352.00-1354.00 on the E-mini SP, 1786.50-1788.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 699.30-701.00 on the E-mini Russell by the end of the session.

There is good support at 1332.00-1330.00 on the E-mini SP, 1753.00-1750.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 1753.00-1750.00 on the E-mini Russell, if the indexes will be strong during all the session they should rally from those levels. If those don’t hold early weakness or a pullback, the 1325.50-1324.00 level on the E-mini SP, 1742.00-1740.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 671.30-670.60 on the E-mini Russell should give the longs the motivation to jump in. If those areas does not hold then the obvious support at 1321.25-1319.00 on the E-mini SP,1735.00-1734 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 671.30-670.60 will have to be aggressively bought or the rally is over and the way to the January lows will be open once more. GOOD LUCK


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1352.00-1354.00 1786.50-1788.00 699.30-701.00
Resistance 2 1347.00-1349.00 1772.00-1773.00 693.00-694.60
Resistance 1 1340.00-1342.00 1762.00-1764.50 687.10-688.00
PIVOT 1333.50 1756.25 683.50
Support 1 1332.00-1330.00 1753.00-1750.00 682.00-681.00
Support 2 1325.50-1324.00 1742.00-1740.00 677.30-676.00
Support 3 1321.25-1319.50 1735.00-1734.00 671.30-670.60




S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1385.05 1822.53 709.67
1379.20 1814.97 706.63
1369.75 1802.75 701.70
1360.30 1790.53 696.77
1354.45 1782.97 693.73
1345.00 1770.75 688.80
1335.55 1758.53 683.87
1332.63 1754.75 682.35
1329.70 1750.97 680.83
1320.25 1738.75 675.90
1310.80 1726.53 670.97
1304.95 1718.97 667.93
1295.50 1706.75 663.00
1286.05 1694.53 658.07
1280.20 1686.97 655.03





DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1352.75 1781.00 693.80
AS DAILY LOW 1328.00 1749.00 680.90






Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 10-March-2008

Another loosing week for all the equity indexes as economic data and credit concerns drove indexes sharply lower as the US economy is succumbing into recession.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 14–MARCH-2008

R3 1393.75
R2 1369.50
R1 1327.00
PP 1306.50
S1 1287.00
S2 1268.00
S3 1243.00

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories

WEEKLY RECAP

This was another bad week for the US economy and the equity indexes, as new lows were printed on the stock markets. On Monday, the ISM index showed its lowest level in five years, with additional contraction in the housing sector and Intel lowering its profit margin outlook. All these kept the stock indexes under pressure for most of the session but managed to close relatively quite. The E-mini SP settled at 1332.00, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1736.75 and the E-mini Russell at 683.90. The Dow cash recovered from early losses closing marginally low for the day at 12258. Tuesday’s session, more fears about the conditions of the financial sector and credit markets with declarations about more cash to be needed for Citigroup resulted in a sideways session with downside pressure, which still the bulls managed to stay afloat. The E-mini SP closed at 1327.00 losing 5 points for the session, while the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1742.50 and the E-mini Russell at 679.90. The Dow cash ended the session with a huge recovery from its daily lows closing at 12213, 45 points lower than the previous session. On Wednesday, the E-mini SP futures have a rollercoaster day after some good economic reports and the failure of Ambac to announce its anticipated bailout. The ISM Index increased from 44.6 to 49.3 in February; the release of the Beige Book showed continued slowdown, weak housing markets and problems for the retail sector. Oil and Gold closed at record highs deepening the dollar against the other currencies. Continuing problems reflected on Carlyle Bond fund default, new record oil prices, weakness in the European markets, continuing claims against a deep in weekly jobless claims and Wal-Mart February sales better tan expected resulted in a sharp sell off on the US markets during the Thursday’s session. The E-mini SP printed its daily lows at 1302.25, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1711.00 and the E-mini Russell at 660.40.The Dow cash lost 214 points for the session and closed at 12040. All the indexes bounced back a bit into the close. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls which showed a 63000 job loss for the month resulted in an early sell off followed by huge upside short covering rallies which finally failed to maintain the indexes above critical support areas. The E-mini SP closed at 1292.75, the E-mini Nasdaq ended the session at 1708.75 and the Russell at 660.60. The Dow cash broke bellow support loosing 146 points and closing at 11893, its lowest close since September 2006.All the indexes ended the week with losses of 3%.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

The equity markets opened with heavy losses after a worst than expected nonfarm payrolls report. The E-mini SP started the session bellow the 1300.00 level. The index found early support just at our 1292.50-1291.00 level and bounced back up to 1308.50. The index pulled back to the 1302.00 level and then more short covering rally drove prices to a daily high at 1314.00 on the E-mini SP and 1734.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq. Those highs were rejected and the indexes started a downtrend move which found temporary support first at 1304.00 and then at 1294.00. The weak bounces were sold and the indexes went down to new lows not seen since the January 22 lows. The E-mini SP reached the 1282.25 while the E-mini Nasdaq made a new low bellow the January levels at 1682.25 and the E-mini Russell traded near the 650.00 level. The selling pressure ended and a strong short covering rally took prices all the way back up to 1302.00 on the E-mini SP, 1720.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 667.00 on the E-mini Russell. The indexes gave back half of their late night gains and once the E-mini SP traded bellow 1298.00 retraced to close at 1292.75, the E-mini Nasdaq ended the session at 1708.75 and the Russell at 660.60. The Dow cash broke bellow support loosing 146 points and closing at 11893, its lowest close since September 2006.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Friday last week I wrote:” The E-mini SP made its lows near the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement from the December highs to the 1260 January lows, and that price is 1323.00, so two consecutive closes bellow that level will give the bears a full control and point at least to a test of the January lows.”

Last Friday I wrote:” The fact that the E-mini SP has closed bellow the 1320.00 level and broken bellow the 1307.00 have the charts looking ugly and some catalyst has to come to save the indexes from a melt down or new lows bellow the January 1255.50 on the E-mini SP could be seen, and that means that if the current trend does not end between during the next two sessions, this leg down could bring prices deep bellow the recent lows. The key for the early going of the session will be the capability of the Dow cash to hold above the 12000 level. There is support at yesterday’s lows at 1304.25-1302.00 on the E-mini SP, 1710.00-1708.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 659.50-658.00 on the E-mini Russell, if the indexes open bellow those levels, be ready for a reaction rally from the next support areas at 1292.50-1291.00.”

We got the early reaction to our support areas as the E-mini SP tested the 1292.00 level and rallied back up to 1308.50, but the downside pressure and the continuation of the downside pattern joined by the violation of key support areas in all the indexes took is toll in the markets. The fact that all the expectations for an improving in the economy readings have failed, and the increasing risk in the financial sector will keep the markets under pressure despite wild and huge short covering rallies.

I have been looking for a higher low on the daily charts during the first weeks of March and in front of the next FOMC meeting where interest rates will be cut at least by another half point, and in what can be a consolidation from last week falls. It could be possible that Friday’s lows hold for a while, but short term accumulation has ended and the long term selling pressure prevails. The Dow cash has already confirmed the long term downtrend and the S&P close bellow the 1300.00 area has also done it. If this mid to long term downtrend fails to print a higher low on the E-mini SP above the 1255.50, and the Dow cash breaks bellow the 11650, then much lower prices will be seen. At this juncture only two consecutive closes above the 1350.00 on the E-mini SP will negate this forecast.

The oversold conditions in many indicators are already calling for some kind of rally but I wouldn’t be surprise to see a wash out before that happens and if the markets does not fall fast and quick during Monday’s session, the effort to consolidate this last move down should result in sideways trading conditions with opportunities on both sides of the market where only a close above the first resistance areas will indicate a countertrend move. It will be very positive if the E-mini Nasdaq can hold and lead the SP’s to a close above the resistance levels.

TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at Friday’s late highs at 1302.00-1304.00 on the E-mini SP, 1713.00-1714.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 662.50-663.80 on the E-mini Russell, if the market break up above them, the indexes could reach the 1312.00-1313.00 on the E-mini SP, 1720.00-1722.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 667.00-668.50 on the E-mini Russell. If those don’t stop the rally strong resistance should be seen at Friday’s Globex spike at 1319.00-1321.00 on the E-mini SP, 1734.50-1737.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 678.00-679.40on the E-mini Russell may be all that a short covering rally should reach.
There is support at 1289.00-1287.00 the E-mini SP, 1700.00-1699.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 659.00-657.70 on the E-mini Russell. If the market trades bellow those areas, a test of Friday’s lows at 1282.50-1281.00 on the E-mini SP, 1682.00-1680.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 653.80-652.20 on the E-mini Russell are critical as a double bottom there could signal a short term low and the start of a 3-4 countertrend rally; breaking bellow those levels and don’t get an immediate reversal could increase the downside pressure. If that happens a quick drop to 1277.00-1275.00 area on the E-mini SP, 1669.00-1667.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 649.50-648.50 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold or 1272.00-1270.00 on the E-mini SP will be seen before the day is over.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1319.00-1321.00 1734.50-1737.00 678.00-679.40
Resistance 2 1312.00-1313.00 1720.00-1722.00 667.00-668.50
Resistance 1 1302.00-1304.00 1713.00-1714.00 662.50-663.80
PIVOT 1297.75 1708.25 661.20
Support 1 1289.00-1287.00 1700.00-1699.00 659.00-657.70
Support 2 1282.50-1281.00 1682.00-1680.00 653.80-652.20
Support 3 1277.00-1275.00 1669.00-1667.00 649.50-648.50
Support 4 1272.00-1270.00 1658.00-1656.00 644.50-642.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1377.15 1817.73 697.08
1368.60 1805.52 693.12
1354.75 1785.75 686.70
1340.90 1765.98 680.28
1332.35 1753.77 676.32
1318.50 1734.00 669.90
1304.65 1714.23 663.48
1300.38 1708.13 661.50
1296.10 1702.02 659.52
1282.25 1682.25 653.10
1268.40 1662.48 646.68
1259.85 1650.27 642.72
1246.00 1630.50 636.30
1232.15 1610.73 629.88
1223.60 1598.52 625.92



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1305.50 1721.25 665.30
AS DAILY LOW 1269.25 1669.50 648.50​






Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-March-2008

TRADE SMART, TRADE WITH A PLAN

Equity indexes continued their downtrend as oil hits $108 a barrel and increasing concerns regarding the financial sector

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Trade Balance

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The indexes extended their recent losses as they continue to push lower. After a steady opening at 1294.50 the E-mini SP traded down to 1288.00 and moved higher to 1296.00 just after the release of the wholesale inventories data. Another pullback to the 1287.00 area was met with buying but the E-min I SP failed to trade above the highs resulting in the resume of the downtrend. The index reached 1279.00 and bounced back up to 1285.00 where shorts pressed the markets to new intraday lows printing 1278.25 on the E-mini SP. A short covering rally to the 1388.00 area failed to gain upside momentum and the index pushed lower to its daily lows at 1272.25, just at our support areas. The markets reacted well from the lows and during the last hour of trading the E-mini SP managed to trade at 1380.50 before pulling back into the end of the session and closing at 1275.50.The E-mini Nasdaq added 32 points to its recent losses and settled at 1676.75 while the E-mini Russell broke bellow KEY SUPPORT ending the session at 647.10. The Dow cash lost 153 points closing at 11740.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The fact that all the expectations for an improving in the economy readings have failed, and the increasing risk in the financial sector is still present, will keep the markets under pressure despite wild and huge short covering rallies. I have been looking for a higher low on the daily charts during the first weeks of March and in front of the next FOMC meeting where interest rates will be cut at least by another half point, and in what can be a consolidation from last week falls. It could be possible that Friday’s lows hold for a while, but short term accumulation has ended and the long term selling pressure prevails. The Dow cash has already confirmed the long term downtrend and the S&P close bellow the 1300.00 area has also done it. If this mid to long term downtrend fails to print a higher low on the E-mini SP above the 1255.50, and the Dow cash breaks bellow the 11650, then much lower prices will be seen. At this juncture only two consecutive closes above the 1350.00 on the E-mini SP will negate this forecast.”
From a technical point of view the indexes as extremely oversold and ready for a decent bounce, but the continued selling and the recent violation of technical support levels kept pushing for a test of the January 22 lows. The downtrend channels on the 15 and 30 minute period 60/20 moving average have been holding any bounces, and at this moment the upper trend line is at 1285.00, so breaking above it could signal a possible change of direction or at least a countertrend move. The previous days to the March option and contract expiration usually have a bullish bias, and this combined with the expectation of a rate cut by the Fed on next week meeting, could create the conditions for a multi day rally that if it catch some momentum could drive the E-mini SP back up to the 1340.00 level and the Dow cash above the 12100. On the other side of the coin, failure to hold yesterday’s 1272.25 low on the E-mini SP and 11640, January lows on the Dow cash would signal another strong move to the downside which could reach not only the January lows on the E-mini SP but get to the 1230.00 area or lower. This scenario is what scares me about taking a long position for the coming sessions, and a one day rally, that could be seen today, may be followed by another strong sell off. So, only a strong positive day, with follow through during the next sessions, will convince me to jump and stick to a mid-term long position.

I wouldn’t be surprise to see the market rally during today’s session and try to consolidate the last move down, for this to happen the first signal will be to see the E-mini SP trading above the 1285.00 area and holding above it on a pullback, but only two consecutive closes above the 1307.00 level will point to higher prices. Another short term bullish factor is the recent calls from the television networks for a continuation of this downtrend when they already missed the entire move down. I will look carefully how the E-mini SP reacts to the support levels and go long if after breaking bellow them or holding, the index shows any sign of life, and if the index manage to trade at the 1285.00 and holds on a pullback to the 1280.00’s I will be buying the breaks during the session.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at the late highs at 1280.00-1282.50 on the E-mini SP, 1687.00-1689.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 651.30-653.50 on the E-mini Russell, if the market break up above them, the indexes could be ready for a nice rally, in particular if the E-mini Russell participates, and they could reach 1287.50-1289.00 on the E-mini SP, 1697.00-1700.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 656.00-657.20 on the E-mini Russell. If yesterday’s lows area short term bottom, the indexes should be able to move to the next areas at 1293.00-1295.00 on the E-mini SP, 1710.00-1712.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 659.80-660.90 on the E-mini Russell. If that happens, Thursday will have to show follow through in order to call a short term bottom.

There is strong support at yesterday’s lows1274.50-1272.50 on the E-mini SP, 1676.00-1674.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 645.80-645.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the market trades those areas on the early going of the session, and hold, a strong 18-20 point short covering rally could be seen. Bellow those areas, a false break that reverses from 1269.00-1268.00 on the E-mini SP, 1668.00-1666.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 642.00-640.70 on the E-mini Russell and trades back above the 1274.50 could also trigger a nice rally. If the indexes does not hold those levels, the bears will have full control and the downtrend should continue at least to 1265.00-1264.00 on the E-mini SP, 1661.00-1660.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 637.80-636.00 on the E-mini Russell, those will have to hold or a panic sell will happen into the end of the session. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1293.00-1295.00 1710.00-1712.00 659.80-660.90
Resistance 2 1287.50-1289.00 1697.00-1700.00 656.00-657.20
Resistance 1 1280.00-1282.50 1687.00-1689.00 651.30-653.50
PIVOT 1282.50 1689.50 651.60
Support 1 1274.50-1272.50 1676.00-1674.00 645.80-645.00
Support 2 1269.00-1268.00 1668.00-1666.00 642.00-640.70
Support 3 1265.00-1264.00 1661.00-1660.00 637.80-636.00
Support 4 1260.00-1258.50 1652.00-1650.00 633.20-632.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1343.59 1788.54 702.78
1337.16 1778.21 697.32
1326.75 1761.50 688.50
1316.34 1744.79 679.68
1309.91 1734.46 674.22
1299.50 1717.75 665.40
1289.09 1701.04 656.58
1285.88 1695.88 653.85
1282.66 1690.71 651.12
1272.25 1674.00 642.30
1261.84 1657.29 633.48
1255.41 1646.96 628.02
1245.00 1630.25 619.20
1234.59 1613.54 610.38
1228.16 1603.21 604.92



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1287.00 1697.25 656.30
AS DAILY LOW 1260.50 1653.50 633.20​







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-March-2008

Fed tries to boost the financial markets by adding $200 billion in a new lending tool in order to reduce the credit crisis. All the equity indexes ended the session with huge gains.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Treasury Budget


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The indexes opened sharply higher on the announcement that the Fed will launch a new plan to increase liquidity. The E-mini SP started the session above the 1300.00 area while the E-mini Nasdaq opened with strong gains near the 1715.00 level. The E-mini SP pulled back to 1296.00 where buyers stepped in and took the index back up to the 1302.00 level. The indexes failed to trade higher and felt to test once more the 1296.00 level where a second bounce failed just above the 1300.00 area. The indexes started a slow downtrend move reaching 1293.00 on the E-mini SP where another feeble bounce was sold and the index made new intraday lows at 1286.50.This area was the previous day resistance level which during yesterday session acted as support and the E-mini SP moved back higher to 1294.00 where the index posted a double top and moved back lower to test the 1286.25 level while the E-mini Nasdaq made a new intraday low at 1687.75 and the E-mini Russell held above the 652.00 area. The successful double bottom at the 1286.50 area on the E-mini SP was bought and the index rallied back up to 1298.00 where a 4 points pullback was met with buying pushing the index back up above the 1300’s. The rally on the E-mini Nasdaq stalled at the highs, but once the index broke above it created additional buying momentum reaching new highs at 1312.00 on the E-mini SP and 1726.50 on the NQ’s. Another 4 points pullback to 1308.00 attracted new buyers and the index posted its daily high at 1315.00. That rhythm continued in to the end of the session pushing all the indexes to new highs as the short covering rally only ended once the markets closed. The E-mini SP closed at 1324.00 with a huge 48.50 points gain, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1750.50 and the Russell at 674.30. The Dow cash added 416 points ending the session at 12156. These are their largest one day percentage gain since 2003.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” From a technical point of view the indexes as extremely oversold and ready for a decent bounce, but the continued selling and the recent violation of technical support levels kept pushing for a test of the January 22 lows. The downtrend channels on the 15 and 30 minute period 60/20 moving average have been holding any bounces, and at this moment the upper trend line is at 1285.00, so breaking above it could signal a possible change of direction or at least a countertrend move. The previous days to the March option and contract expiration usually have a bullish bias, and this combined with the expectation of a rate cut by the Fed on next week meeting, could create the conditions for a multi day rally that if it catch some momentum could drive the E-mini SP back up to the 1340.00 level and the Dow cash above the 12100. I wouldn’t be surprise to see the market rally during today’s session and try to consolidate the last move down, for this to happen the first signal will be to see the E-mini SP trading above the 1285.00 area and holding above it on a pullback, but only two consecutive closes above the 1307.00 level will point to higher prices. Another short term bullish factor is the recent calls from the television networks for a continuation of this downtrend when they already missed the entire move down. I will look carefully how the E-mini SP reacts to the support levels and go long if after breaking bellow them or holding, the index shows any sign of life, and if the index manage to trade at the 1285.00 and holds on a pullback to the 1280.00’s I will be buying the breaks during the session”.

The E-mini SP rallied strong at the opening and the profit taking move that ended at noon with a double bottom at 1386.50, just above our 1285.00 turning point level exploded in a huge rally which printed a “monster” white candle on the daily charts.. The powerful reversal trend day up, seems to call for a quarterly bottom and higher low on the daily charts, and the key for the markets to return to a neutral position or move higher will be a continuation of yesterday’s move during the rest of the week. Yesterday close above the 1307.00 area and above the old 1320.00 multi-day support levels has place the index in a strong position which points for a test of the 1340.00-1342.00 level. The fact that the Fed will accept the bank’s “junk” as collateral could be enough to maintain the markets afloat until investors realize that the fundamentals are unchanged.

Yesterday’s strong move should result in early strength for today’s session and then we must see some consolidation. Look for a pullback if the indexes opened strong and rally to the first resistance levels during the first hour of trading and the move fails to break above it, this scenario should result in a 10-12 point pullback from the 1328.50-1331.00 initial resistance area. If that plays out, that pullback should offer a good long entry. On the other side of the coin, a weak opening that holds above the 1314.50-1312.00 support area should be met with buying as many shorts may be trapped at lower prices. Watch closely the 12000 area on the Dow cash, as breaking back bellow it, could resume the downtrend.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is strong resistance at 1328.50-1331.00 on the E-mini SP, 1758.00-1760.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 677.20-678.60 on the E-mini Russell, if the rally freezes at those levels, a 10-12 points pullback could be seen, but if those don’t stop this up move, the indexes should reach 1336.00-1338.00 on the E-mini SP, 1771.00-1773.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 682.80-684.00 on the E-mini Russell. If those don’t hold this “junk” Fed’s euphoria then the objective will be 1341.50-1343.00 on the E-mini SP, 1780.00-1782.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 690.30-691.00 on the E-mini Russell.

There is strong support at 1320.00-1318.00 on the E-mini SP, 1742.00-1740.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 671.00-670.00 on the E-mini Russell. I wouldn’t run to buy down there but if the market comes back from lower prices, it could be a good entry area once is crossed back to the upside. Bellow those areas, there is good support at 1314.50-1312.00 on the E-mini SP, 1734.00-1731.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 659.00-657.20 on the E-mini Russell. Those may hold on early weakness. If buyers don’t step in at those levels, then 1306.00-1304.50 on the E-mini SP, 1724.00-1722.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 659.00-657.20 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold or yesterday’s rally is just a one day countertrend move. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1341.50-1343.00 1780.00-1782.00 690.30-691.00
Resistance 2 1336.00-1338.00 1771.00-1773.00 682.80-684.00
Resistance 1 1328.50-1331.00 1758.00-1760.00 677.20-678.60
PIVOT 1307.50 1725.00 664.60
Support 1 1320.00-1318.00 1742.00-1740.00 671.00-670.00
Support 2 1314.50-1312.00 1734.00-1731.00 664.00-662.60
Support 3 1306.00-1304.50 1724.00-1722.00 659.00-657.20
Support 4 1295.00-1294.00 1709.00-1708.00 653.00-651.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1408.39 1890.53 725.36
1396.11 1870.47 718.04
1376.25 1838.00 706.20
1356.39 1805.53 694.36
1344.11 1785.47 687.04
1324.25 1753.00 675.20
1304.39 1720.53 663.36
1298.25 1710.50 659.70
1292.11 1700.47 656.04
1272.25 1668.00 644.20
1252.39 1635.53 632.36
1240.11 1615.47 625.04
1220.25 1583.00 613.20
1200.39 1550.53 601.36
1188.11 1530.47 594.04



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1350.25 1794.00 690.30
AS DAILY LOW 1298.00 1709.50 659.30​





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 13-March-2008

Record oil prices and a new historic low for the dollar result in a profit taking session after Tuesday’s huge rally.

REMEMBER THAT TODAY IS ROLL OVER TO THE JUNE CONTRACT (ESM8, NQM8, ER2M8) our support and resistance levels are for the June contract.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Export Prices
8:30 AM Import Prices
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales- exc. Auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories.


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Wednesday’s session opened quite and began to decline, the E-mini SP opened at 1324.00 and after printing a double top on the 1326.00 area was sold reaching 1315.75. The double bottom was met by buyers and the index rallied all the way up to its daily high at 1334.25, the E-mini Nasdaq reached 1766.00 and the E-mini Russell got as high as 682.00. That was all for the bulls in the huge short covering rally that started Tuesday’s session before the opening. The E-mini SP pulled back to 1328.00 and after a feeble bounce to 1331.50 where it printed a lower high started a downtrend session. The index found support at 1323.00 and after spending one hour at that level, finally broke down testing the support areas just above our 1320.00-1318.00 levels. Another short covering rally failed to gain upside momentum and the index made new intraday lows above 1316.00. None of the rallies attempts stick and once joined by the E-mini Nasdaq the indexes started a steady decline that reached 1308.00 on the E-mini SP, 1732.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 666.30 on the E-mini Russell. What it seemed to be a quite low volume consolidation session ended in downtrends after failing to continue Tuesday’s rally. The Dow cash settled at 12110 loosing 46 points for the session.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Yesterday’s strong move should result in early strength for today’s session and then we must see some consolidation. Look for a pullback if the indexes opened strong and rally to the first resistance levels during the first hour of trading and the move fails to break above it, this scenario should result in a 10-12 point pullback from the 1328.50-1331.00 initial resistance area. If that plays out, that pullback should offer a good long entry. On the other side of the coin, a weak opening that holds above the 1314.50-1312.00 support area should be met with buying as many shorts may be trapped at lower prices. Watch closely the 12000 area on the Dow cash, as breaking back bellow it, could resume the downtrend.”

The E-mini SP acted close to our forecast as the initial pop to 1326.00 was sold for the 10-12 points that we were expecting, and that first pullback that held above our support areas at 1314.50-1312.00 was met with strong buying pushing the index up for almost a 20 points rally. When a countertrend move happens in a downtrend, as it happened on Tuesday’s session, the risk that implies is that the move gets reversed the next session. I was expecting the rally to continue at least for another couple of session, but the markets are in a very weak position, and the failure to sustain gains maintains the downtrend intact.

Tuesday’s Fed’s move which resulted in a huge rally didn’t manage to convince investors that it will help the economy and the financial sector to be able to show signs of recovery. The new record lows for the dollar and the additional inflationary pressures derivate from record oil prices are a clear sign of the fear to maintain dollar assets.
Today, at the time that I am writing my report, the indexes are already showing a steep decline, and it will have to be reversed before the opening when the economic reports are released or a wide range downside day could erase all of Tuesday’s gains and put the indexes on their way for another test of the 1260.00 area on the E-mini SP or lower, and if the market does not hold there, we could have an objective for this new leg down at the 1230.00-1236.00 area before next week FOMC meeting. The technical indicators are not anymore in oversold conditions, and it will be only a healthy increase in the retail sales report which could result in a recovery rally which brings the E-mini SP back up to neutral territory at the 1320.00’s levels. With this perspective, selling the rallies when the move stalls should be the way to play today’s session. We have to remember that there is a gap open from Tuesday’s session, and at some moment it will have to be filled. So, a retest of the recent lows or a higher daily low could give the boost to the markets to show a pre- rate cut rally.




TODAY’S SESSION

On a lower opening, bellow the initial support, get ready to get long once it is crossed to the upside, but if the E-mini SP opens bellow it be carful as that level could be the daily high, if that trade plays good, be quick to take profits, as the markets appear to be once more under pressure.

. There is resistance at 1314.00-1316.00 on the E-mini SP, 1749.00-1751.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 668.50-669.90 on the E-mini Russell, if the rally freezes at those levels, a sharp decline could occur, but if those don’t stop this up move, the indexes should reach the 1318.75-1320.50 on the E-mini SP, 1762.00-1764.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 674.00-675.60on the E-mini Russell. Those are KEY for turning back the markets to a neutral position. If those are successfully penetrated, then 1326.00-1328.50 on the E-mini SP, 1773.00-1775.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 680.70-682.00 on the E-mini Russell will indicate more consolidation before next week FOMC meeting.

There is support at 1309.00-1308.50 on the E-mini SP, 1738.00-1736.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 664.30-662.80on the E-mini Russell. If the markets open bellow them, those will be strong resistance for any rally attempt and selling the bounces may offer the best trades. Bellow those areas, 1304.25-1302.25 on the E-mini SP, 1732.00-1730.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 658.60-656.10 on the E-mini Russell are critical, otherwise the trend has turned definitely down. If those are broken, the last good support before an ugly day are 1297.50-1296.50 on the E-mini SP, 1722.00-1721.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 652.50-650.10 on the E-mini Russell. If the market opens bellow them and the 1293.00-1291.00 levels on the E-mini SP are not aggressively bought, the index could show a 2-3% decline during today’s session. GOOD LUCK.


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 3 1326.00-1328.50 1773.00-1775.00 680.70-682.00
Resistance 2 1318.75-1320.50 1762.00-1764.00 674.00-675.60
Resistance 1 1314.00-1316.00 1749.00-1751.00 668.50-669.90
PIVOT 1319.25 1751.50 671.60
Support 1 1309.00-1308.50 1738.00-1736.00 664.30-662.80
Support 2 1304.25-1302.25 1732.00-1730.00 658.60-656.10
Support 3 1297.50-1296.50 1722.00-1721.00 652.50-650.10
Support 4 1293.00-1291.00 1714.00-1712.00 646.20-645.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1408.39 1890.53 725.36
1396.11 1870.47 718.04
1376.25 1838.00 706.20
1356.39 1805.53 694.36
1344.11 1785.47 687.04
1324.25 1753.00 675.20
1304.39 1720.53 663.36
1298.25 1710.50 659.70
1292.11 1700.47 656.04
1272.25 1668.00 644.20
1252.39 1635.53 632.36
1240.11 1615.47 625.04
1220.25 1583.00 613.20
1200.39 1550.53 601.36
1188.11 1530.47 594.04



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1323.75 1757.75 674.40
AS DAILY LOW 1297.50 1723.00 658.90​









Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 14-March-2008

Stocks recovered from huge losses as S&P predicts that most of the asset write downs must be done.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI
10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment-Prel

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The futures opened the session well bellow Wednesday’s settlements and with a big sell off. The E-mini SP started the session at 1294.00 and failed to bounce above the 1296.50 area which acted as strong resistance during the early going. The failure to break above that level resulted in a down move just bellow our updated support as the index printed its low at 1284.00. After holding above that level, the e-mini SP finally broke up above the 1296.00. The short covering rally prompted prices to 1303.50. A pullback to the 1395.00 level held nicely and in a classical reversal from that level the index printed a new intraday high at 1305.25. Back and forth action was resolved with another short covering rally filling the opened gap at 1310.00. An 11 point sell off held just bellow the 1300.00’s where buyers stepped in and the E-mini SP reached new highs at our 1318.75-1320.50 resistance area joined by the other indexes. The E-mini SP pulled back once more just to be bought and rally all the way back up to 1324.50, where strong resistance came in to play and after various attempts to break higher the index pulled back into the close and settled at 1313.25, the E-mini Nasdaq ended the day at 1755.75 and the E-mini Russell at 678.40. The Dow cash rallied 300 points from its lows and closed the session with a modest gain of 36 points at 12145.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” When a countertrend move happens in a downtrend, as it happened on Tuesday’s session, the risk that implies is that the move gets reversed the next session. I was expecting the rally to continue at least for another couple of session, but the markets are in a very weak position, and the failure to sustain gains maintains the downtrend intact. Today, at the time that I am writing my report, the indexes are already showing a steep decline, and it will have to be reversed, if the market does not hold there, we could have an objective for this new leg down at the 1230.00-1236.00 area before next week FOMC meeting. The technical indicators are not anymore in oversold conditions, and it will be only a healthy increase in the retail sales report which could result in a recovery rally which brings the E-mini SP back up to neutral territory at the 1320.00’s levels. So, a retest of the recent lows or a higher daily low could give the boost to the markets to show a pre- rate cut rally.”

The E-mini SP managed to recover from a higher low and printed a double bottom at last Tuesday’s lows. The index is forming a new triangle pattern which should result in an inside day for today’s session as the index consolidates the last huge swings. While I don’t rule out another leg lower, I consider that it will hold the recent lows and result in a 50-60 points rally before or after the FOMC meeting which could bring the index to the 1342.00-1360.00 are depending from which this new short covering rally starts, and if this forecasted rally manage to survive more than four days the E-mini SP could also reach the 1390.00 area. So establishing a low or higher low during the next two sessions will be the key for the extension of this rally. As you know there is always the possibility of being wrong, but the most probable scenario is that the next substantial move will be to the upside. A sell off that gets reversed from bellow the 1300.00 area on the E-mini SP and 12000 on the Dow cash will be the best indication. For today’s session the markets should be tradable on both sides of the range as I don’t predict any dramatic move. Keep in mind the importance of today’s CPI and Michigan Sentiment numbers as they should increase volatility.



TODAY’S SESSION

On a lower opening, there is resistance at 1311.00-1312.00 on the E-mini SP, 1761.00-1762.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 680.70-681.50 on the E-mini Russell, if the market breaks above them, the indexes should reach the 1318.50-1320.00 on the E-mini SP, 1769.00-1770.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and686.20-688.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the rally stalls there a lower high will be posted and a good short entry could be trigger from this levels, but if the indexes wants to test or break marginally yesterday’s highs, the short covering rally may get to 1326.00-1328.00 on the E-mini SP, 1781.00-1782.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 692.00-694.00 on the E-mini Russell. If those are broken to the upside a pre-FOMC short covering rally has started with the indexes pointing to higher prices.

There is support at 1304.00-1302.00 on the E-mini SP, 1743.00-1741.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 675.80-673.20 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets open bellow them, and the Michigan Sentiment data is not well received a quick drop to the next support levels at 1294.00-1292.00 on the E-mini SP, 1729.00-1726.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 671.00-670.00 on the E-mini Russell must hold, if that happens be ready for a rally back to the 1310.00 level on the E-mini SP or higher. If those can not hold the last good support before a bloody Friday are 1288.00-1286.00 on the E-mini SP, 1720.00-1718.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 663.70-662.80 on the E-mini Russell. If those hold we can have a late rally back up to the 1300.00 area. GOOD LUCK.


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1331.00-1332.00 1790.00-1793.00 699.30-701.00
Resistance 3 1326.00-1328.00 1781.00-1782.00 692.00-694.00
Resistance 2 1318.50-1320.00 1769.00-1770.00 686.20-688.00
Resistance 1 1311.00-1312.00 1761.00-1762.00 680.70-681.50
PIVOT 1308.00 1743.75 671.00
Support 1 1304.00-1302.00 1743.00-1741,00 675.80-673.20
Support 2 1294.00-1292.00 1729.00-1726.50 671.00-670.00
Support 3 1288.00-1286.00 1720.00-1718.00 663.70-662.80
Support 4 1283.00-1281.00 1709.00-1707.00 656.90-655.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1390.03 1870.13 727.19
1380.47 1855.38 720.51
1365.00 1831.50 709.70
1349.53 1807.63 698.89
1339.97 1792.88 692.21
1324.50 1769.00 681.40
1309.03 1745.13 670.59
1304.25 1737.75 667.25
1299.47 1730.38 663.91
1284.00 1706.50 653.10
1268.53 1682.63 642.29
1258.97 1667.88 635.61
1243.50 1644.00 624.80
1228.03 1620.13 613.99
1218.47 1605.38 607.31



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1340.00 1793.50 694.10
AS DAILY LOW 1299.50 1731.00 665.80​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 17-March-2008

CPI data for February unchanged and the FED joined by a rival stepping in to bail out Bear Stearns resulted in one of the most erratic sessions in recent US markets history.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 21–MARCH-2008


R3 1390.50
R2 1363.25
R1 1327.00
PP 1301.00
S1 1275.00
S2 1258.00
S3 1238.00


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index
9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
9:15 AM Industrial Production


WEEKLY RECAP

The US markets had another volatile week as they started last Monday with another sell off with crude oil reaching new highs above $108 per barrel and increasing concerns about the financial sector. A steady opening failed to hold gains and the indexes closed at their lowest levels since the January lows. The E-mini SP ended the session at 1275.50.The E-mini Nasdaq added 32 points to its recent losses and settled at 1676.75 while the E-mini Russell broke bellow KEY SUPPORT closing the day at 647.10. The Dow cash lost 153 points and finished at 11740.Tuesday’s FED’s announcement that it will add $200 billion to the financial markets in a new lending tool as an effort to reduce credit concerns reversed the previous session losses and the indexes ended the day with healthy gains in one of the most positive sessions in the past years, the E-mini SP closed at 1324.00 with a huge 48.50 points gain, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1750.50 and the Russell at 674.30. The Dow cash added 416 points ending the session at 12156. These were the largest one day percentage gains for the markets since 2003.Wendesday’s session opened quite and began to decline, the E-mini SP opened at 1324.00 and after printing a double top on the 1326.00 started a profit taking session as it consolidated the previous day huge upside move. Record oil prices and a new historic low for the dollar kept the markets under pressure for most of the session. A favorable oil supply number that initially attracted some selling in that market which seemed to post a top on crude record prices were reversed as investors have turn to gold, currencies and gold as an alternative to protect their investments from the fragile US economy and volatile stocks markets. None of the rallies attempts stick and the indexes showed a steady decline that reached 1308.00 on the E-mini SP, 1732.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 666.30 on the E-mini Russell. What it seemed to be a quite low volume consolidation session ended in downtrends after failing to continue Tuesday’s rally. The Dow cash settled at 12110 loosing 46 points for the session. Thursday’s session opened strongly lower as the eminent collapse of the Carlyle Group took its toll in the equity markets. Retail sales showed a worst than expected decrease falling .6% and .2% excluding autos while the weekly job initial claims applications came out bellow the 360000 level showing a mild improve. The early losses were reversed as S&P rating agency declared that the worst of the big write down has taking place. The E-mini SP settled at 1313.25, the E-mini Nasdaq ended the day at 1755.75 and the E-mini Russell at 678.40. The Dow cash rallied 300 points from its lows and closed the session with a modest gain of 36 points at 12145. Friday’s session appeared to be a positive one as the CPI numbers better than expected and released one hour before the opening bell trigger a pre-session huge covering rally that reached 1336.00 on the E-mini SP futures index. An early profit taking move was expected to be a buying opportunity in a market ready for additional rate cuts next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting. With this bullish bias and the players positioned for a continued higher move, the news of a bailout plan for Bear Stearns reached with the Fed and JP Morgan induced strong selling reaching almost last Monday’s lows with the E-mini SP bottoming at 1375.50, 60 points bellow its daily highs. The markets were hammered without compassion but managed to close well above their worst levels of the session. All the indexes closed with big daily losses and in a critical position for next week opening.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS

After been trading moderately lower during the Globex session, the indexes showed a huge short covering rally once the February CPI was released one hour before the opening. The E-mini SP rallied with the inflation data announcement reaching 1336.00 in what seemed to be an upside breakout, the E-mini Nasdaq made its high at 1783.75 and the E-mini Russell at 690.30. An early profit taking move pushed the E-mini SP down to 1316.50 where another bounce were seen reaching the 1323.50 level. The devastating news of a bail out plan for Bear Stearns came out and ruined the party with a huge round of selling in all the indexes. The E-mini SP was knocked out falling from 1323.50 to 1379.50 in just a few minutes before finding support. The index bounced back to the 1300.00 area and then pulled back to 1294.00 where buyers stepped in driving the index back up to 1307.00. The erratic move continued and the E-mini SP fell back to test the 1286.00 area and once more bounced back to the 1300.00 level. These volatile swings continue during the mid-day action and finally the index broke down to new daily lows at 1275.50. A short covering rally to 1288.00 was met once more with selling bit the lows held an the index rallied back up strong to the 1300.00’s dropped to 1285.00 and bounced back into the close where it settled at 1293.00 losing 22.25 points for the session. The E-mini Nasdaq closed at 1724.50, minus 31.25 points and the E-mini Russell at 663.70 with a loss of 14.70 points. The Dow cash lost 194 points ending the session at 11951.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The E-mini SP managed to recover from a higher low and printed a double bottom at last Tuesday’s lows. The index is forming a new triangle pattern which should result in an inside day for today’s session as the index consolidates the last huge swings. While I don’t rule out another leg lower, I consider that it will hold the recent lows and result in a 50-60 points rally before or after the FOMC meeting which could bring the index to the 1342.00-1360.00 are depending from which this new short covering rally starts, and if this forecasted rally manage to survive more than four days the E-mini SP could also reach the 1390.00 area. So establishing a low or higher low during the next two sessions will be the key for the extension of this rally.”

The rally that I have expected before next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting and rate cut has failed to set up the markets in a strong position to be able to call a quarterly bottom, BUT, as bearish as the news is becoming, keep in mind that consensus is at an extreme bearish sentiment and a strong indication of a low can bring in a good rally. The horizontal bottom formed during the last trading sessions does not indicate a capitulation, but in this news guided markets, could be enough for a rally. The explosion on the VIX.X during Friday by more than 14% and the ridiculously inflated March put options settlement prices makes me think that the indexes could rally during next Monday since the beginning of the session. Not only that, the E-mini SP settled well above fair value for a Friday, and sometimes it could be an indication for a good rally to come. The 1293.00 E-mini SP close which is above last Thursday’s 1282.00 lows is also a bottoming sign and it is situated just bellow the 31.8 Fibonacci intraday resistance of 1294.50 for Friday’s wide range session. For this scenario to get confirmed the E-mini SP will have to sustain trading above the 1300.00 area and the Dow cash to get back above the 12000 level, there has to be some follow through to make this multiple day lows look like a bottom.

On the other side of the coin, a lower opening which fails to hold above last Friday late double bottom at the 1287.00-1285.00 levels should be able to maintain the indexes under pressure and push prices lower to the 1260.00 area if not Monday, Tuesday before or after the FOMC rate decision. So the next few days will prove if we have some kind of important low in place. If the January lows won’t hold, the extension of this leg down could carry the E-mini SP to 1220.00 or lower. The fact that the index was not able to close positive for Friday’s session, and that means did not show any follow through to the prior one day rally, opens the door for another wide range move the could repeat in its extension the January down trend and drive prices well bellow the 1255.50 January lows.

The market has been guided by news, and this does not have anything to do with technical analysis, so predicting the next move when the markets are reacting in such an erratic way to every piece of information and trading in the wide range days that we have seen, makes this trading environment extremely dangerous, for shorts and longs by equal.

NIGHTLY UPDATE

As I finished writing my report the Fed has already cut the discount rate by .25 and JP Morgan seems to be buying Bear Stearns at $2 a share. This nightly move had already impact the Globex session in a dramatic and volatile way. When the announcement was done, the E-mini SP got as high as 1314.00 in the June contract, but immediately were sold reaching 1253.00, a double bottom of the January 22 lows. There has been a lot of action first at 1261.00-1262.00. This could be the day when the index post a solid short term low, but beware of a melt down move to the 1240.00 area. The E-mini SP, as the other indexes should see a huge volatile session with swings which make difficult to work with a reasonable stop loss order. The E-mini SP will have to sustain a recovery above the 1270.00 area in order to negate another leg down, print a short term low in the charts and be able to start a rally negating the bearish scenario for this week.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above Friday’s late highs at 1302.00-1304.00 on the E-mini SP, 1737.50-1739.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 665.50-667.00 on the E-mini Russell, if the market breaks up above them, the indexes could reach the 1309.00-1310.00 on the E-mini SP, 1744.00-1746.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 672.60-673.70 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes break above these levels, shorts will start to run for cover as fears of a short term bear trap at last Friday’s lows will start to be imminent in front of a pre-FOMC meeting. If that happens, the rally could get to the 1316.50-1318.00 levels on the E-mini SP, 1753.00-1754.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 677.00-678.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets push higher, then Friday’s huge news generated sells off could will be reversed and the indexes will wait for the Fed on a neutral position with the E-mini SP futures above the 1320.00s

There is support at 1287.00-1285.00 the E-mini SP, 1717.00-1715.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 660.50-659.30 on the E-mini Russell. If the market starts to trade bellow those areas, bears will be gaining the battle and the next support areas at 1281.50-1279.00 on the E-mini SP, 1709.00-1708.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 656.00-654.00 will be critical before being trading at Friday’s lows at 1275.00-1272.50 area on the E-mini SP, 1704.00-1702.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 650.40-648.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the E-mini SP reacts from a double bottom at Friday’s lows, another 18-24 points short covering rally could be seem, but if those levels does not hold the selling pressure, 1265.00-1265.00 will be the only stop before a test of the January 22 1255.50 low. If the markets get down there I am not sure that those lows will hold, and if that happens, new lows to the 1220.00 level during the week could be seen. GOOD LUCK


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1324.00-1326.00 1769.00-1771.00 683.70-684.60
Resistance 3 1316.50-1318.00 1753.00-1754.75 677.00-678.00
Resistance 2 1309.00-1310.00 1744.00-1746.00 672.60-673.70
Resistance 1 1302.00-1304.00 1737.50-1739.00 665.50-667.00
PIVOT 1301.50 1737.25 669.30
Support 1 1287.00-1285.00 1717.00-1715.00 660.50-659.30
Support 2 1281.50-1279.00 1709.00-1708.00 656.00-654.00
Support 3 1275.00-1272.50 1704.00-1702.00 650.40-648.40
Support 4 1267.00-1265.00 1688.00-1686.00 643.70-642.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1433.89 1915.21 749.03
1419.61 1896.04 740.47
1396.50 1865.00 726.60
1373.39 1833.96 712.73
1359.11 1814.79 704.17
1336.00 1783.75 690.30
1312.89 1752.71 676.43
1305.75 1743.13 672.15
1298.61 1733.54 667.87
1275.50 1702.50 654.00
1252.39 1671.46 640.13
1238.11 1652.29 631.57
1215.00 1621.25 617.70
1191.89 1590.21 603.83
1177.61 1571.04 595.27



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1314.50 1754.25 677.00
AS DAILY LOW 1254.00 1672.75 640.70​












Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-March-2008
JP Morgan gets Bear Stearns for $2 a share; the Fed cuts the discount rate by .25 basis point. Oil crude falls as fears of recession forecast additional slowdown in the economy.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM PPI Core
8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Housing Starts
2:15 PM FOMC Policy Statements
YESTERDAY’S MARKETS
The equity indexes opened sharply lower with the E-mini SP making its lows during the Globex session at 1253.00. The E-mini SP opened near the 1260.00 area where buyers stepped in and drove the market higher reaching 1272.00; just bellow our support area which became resistance after the weak opening. After a mild pullback, the index rally strong during the first hour of trading reaching 1287.50. Sellers took advantage of the short covering rally and a steady downtrend pushed prices down near the early lows, just above the 1260.00 level where another bounce resulted in an advance to 1268.00. The E-mini SP sold off printing a double bottom at 1257.75 and another wave of short covering took the index back up 1276.50. The E-mini SP pulled back 10 points were buyers stepped in once more pushing the prices up more than 20 points and reaching our updated objective at 1289.50. A double top pulled the breaks to the rally and the index sold off 15 points into the close and settled at 1279.50. The E-mini Nasdaq printed a low at 1674.00 as in early March and ended the day at 1695.25 while the Russell finished the session at 651.30. The Dow cash managed to end the session on positive territory adding 21 points at 11972 after been loosing 200 points.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote:” The rally that I have expected before next Tuesday’s FOMC meeting and rate cut has failed to set up the markets in a strong position to be able to call a quarterly bottom, BUT, as bearish as the news is becoming, keep in mind that consensus is at an extreme bearish sentiment and a strong indication of a low can bring in a good rally. The horizontal bottom formed during the last trading sessions does not indicate a capitulation, but in this news guided markets, could be enough for a rally. The explosion on the VIX.X during Friday by more than 14% and the ridiculously inflated March put options settlement prices makes me think that the indexes could rally during next Monday since the beginning of the session. Not only that, the E-mini SP settled well above fair value for a Friday, and sometimes it could be an indication for a good rally to come. The 1293.00 E-mini SP close which is above last Thursday’s 1282.00 lows is also a bottoming sign and it is situated just bellow the 31.8 Fibonacci intraday resistance of 1294.50 for Friday’s wide range session. For this scenario to get confirmed the E-mini SP will have to sustain trading above the 1300.00 area and the Dow cash to get back above the 12000 level, there has to be some follow through to make this multiple day lows look like a bottom. A lower opening which fails to hold above last Friday late double bottom at the 1287.00-1285.00 levels should be able to maintain the indexes under pressure and push prices lower to the 1260.00 area if not Monday, Tuesday before or after the FOMC rate decision. So the next few days will prove if we have some kind of important low in place. If the January lows won’t hold, the extension of this leg down could carry the E-mini SP to 1220.00 or lower.
The markets regained much of their early losses but the downtrend is still intact. Despite the extreme oversold conditions the indexes has not been able to show a positive close with some follow through next day and to break above the downtrend channels. Yesterday’s successful test of the January 22 1255.50 low for the E-mini SP and the double bottom at 1674.00 could be enough to trigger an upside move, but the huge swings and volatility in this news guided trading environment makes difficult to call a bottom without a clear breaking of this downward rhythm. The fact that the indexes besides the Dow cash had posted double bottoms (in fact marginal new lows for the year) looks almost perfect and does not give me the sentiment that this is it, so another washout where yesterday’s lows get broken marginally creating some panic could be seen. On the bullish scenario, a higher opening which does not look back would have leave many shorts trapped and it could propel a 3-5 countertrend move before the markets decide if the selling for the year has ended and start to consolidate their selves for the next months. Yesterday’s move showed good volume but right now it is impossible to predict the action with a good chance to be right. There are still many unexpected news and decisions out there, all of them with panic and emotional swings, so trading continues to be risky at this moment.
Today we get the Fed decision on interest rates, and the market is expecting an aggressive .75 basis point reduction, so anything less than that could result in new lows for the year, which could be a short term low.
During the first two hours of the session, if the CPI numbers comes out as expected, the E-mini SP should try to test yesterday’s late highs which were strong resistance and may offer an early shorting opportunity. If that plays out and the markets retreats holding above the first support area, the indexes should be range bounded until the FOMC release its statement. Once the decision is known, expect an initial move that fades and gets reversed, and then the third and decisive move which usually result in a trend move for the last 40 minutes of the session.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is strong resistance at yesterday’s late highs at 1289.50-1291.00 on the E-mini SP, 1710.00-1712.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 659.30-661.00 on the E-mini Russell, if the short covering rally before the FOMC decision is strong enough, then an early push up to 1296.25-1298.50 on the E-mini SP, 1724.00-1726.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 665.50-666.30 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. If the indexes get to those levels, shorts will start to run for cover as fears of an FOMC post decision rally will make them feel trapped. If that happens, the rally could get to the 1302.00-1304.00 levels on the E-mini SP, 1732.00-1734.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 670.00-671.50 on the E-mini Russell. If those highs are seen before the FOMC, the markets should see a profit taking move, but if those are broken after the interest rate decision, the E-mini SP could make it to the 1313.00 area.
There is KEY early support at 1275.00-1274.00 the E-mini SP, 1694.00-1692.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 650.40-648.60 on the E-mini Russell. Those MUST hold before the FOMC decision if the markets are in a good shape, as trading bellow them will start to create the downside momentum for a test or a break of the yearly lows. If the market starts to trade bellow those areas with the bears gaining the battle, the next support areas are at 1268.00-1266.00 on the E-mini SP, 1680.00-1678.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 648.80-643.20. If the markets does not react from there, another test at or near yesterday’s lows at 1260.00-1258.00 area on the E-mini SP, 1672.00-1670.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 640.60-638.90 on the E-mini Russell could be the last call before these markets melt down in a panic move reaching the 1250.00s on the E-mini SP before a quick trip to the 1220.00-1218.00 areas. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1311.00-1313.00 1740.00-1742.00 677.00-678.50
Resistance 3 1302.00-1304.00 1732.00-1734.00 670.00-671.50
Resistance 2 1296.25-1298.50 1724.00-1726.00 665.50-666.30
Resistance 1 1289.50-1291.00 1710.00-1712.00 659.30-661.00
PIVOT 1282.50 1708.00 655.60
Support 1 1275.00-1274.00 1694.00-1692.00 650.40-648.60
Support 2 1268.00-1266.00 1680.00-1678.00 648.80-643.20
Support 3 1260.00-1258.00 1672.00-1670.00 640.60-638.90
Support 4 1250.00-1248.00 1663.00-1661.00 638.80-634.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1412.70 1886.06 732.52
1398.30 1866.94 724.18
1375.00 1836.00 710.70
1351.70 1805.06 697.22
1337.30 1785.94 688.88
1314.00 1755.00 675.40
1290.70 1724.06 661.92
1283.50 1714.50 657.75
1276.30 1704.94 653.58
1253.00 1674.00 640.10
1229.70 1643.06 626.62
1215.30 1623.94 618.28
1192.00 1593.00 604.80
1168.70 1562.06 591.32



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1296.75 1725.00 663.40
AS DAILY LOW 1236.75 1647.00 628.10​







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Tradimg Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-March-2008

JP Morgan gets Bear Stearns for $2 a share, Fed cut rates by .75 basis point, continued deterioration of the US economy and a sharp drop in Gold and Oil prices added volatility to the markets during the entire week.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 28–MARCH-2008

R3 1395.50
R2 1360.25
R1 1333.50
PP 1306.50
S1 1271.00
S2 1244.50
S3 1217.50


ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales

WEEKLY RECAP

Indecision continued to be the name of the game as the US equity indexes showed dramatic sell offs and rallies and huge reversals during the past holiday shortened week. The story started Sunday late night during the Globex session when the Fed cut the discount rate by .25 basis point in an emergency move as more dramatic news came out from the financial sector. JP Morgan acquired the collapsing Bear Stearns saving the form from going broke. This nightly move impacted the Globex session in a dramatic and volatile way. When the announcement was done, the E-mini SP got as high as 1314.00 in the June contract, but immediately were sold reaching 1253.00, a double bottom of the January 22 lows. The E-mini SP opened near the 1260.00 area where buyers stepped in and drove the market higher reaching 1272.00. After a mild pullback, the index rally strong during the first hour of trading reaching 1287.50. Then, the E-mini SP sold off printing a double bottom at 1257.75, by the end of the session, the E-mini SP settled at 1279.50. The E-mini Nasdaq printed a low at 1674.00 as in early March and ended the day at 1695.25 while the Russell finished the session at 651.30. The Dow cash managed to end the session on positive territory adding 21 points at 11972 after been loosing 200 points. Tuesday was the Fed day; the FOMC committee cut rates by .75 basis point. The day started with the earnings reports and economic data, better than expected Goldman's and Lehman’s profits, construction permits at the lowest level in 16 years and housing starts numbers minus .6 and Core CPI higher than expected, but the main focus was the expected move by the Fed. The markets soared ahead of the Fed announcement. The indexes gapped up strong at the opening with the E-mini SP opening above the 1300.00 area and continued to rally reaching 1317.75 before the FOMC decision was released. When the .75 basis point interest reduction by the Fed came out, the indexes sold off strongly testing the waters above the 1300.00 level on the E-mini SP and 1724.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq. The countertrend move pushed the E-mini SP back up to 1314.00 and pulled back down to 1296.00. A second attempt at those lows held and the markets started a furious rally fueled by institutional buying and short covering. Once the indexes broke above the intraday highs the uptrend got stronger and the buying ended only at the close. The E-mini SP added 54.50 points closing at 1334.00, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1771.00, 75.50 points higher than the previous day and the E-mini Russell ended the session at 681.60, up 30.30 points for the day. The Dow cash posted its higher daily gain since 2005 closing at 12392 advancing 420 points during the session. Wednesday’s story showed another sharp reversal as the equity indexes were not able to hold gains for more than 24 hours. US markets reverses the previous day huge rally and sold off strongly as oil and gold prices collapsed while Morgan Stanley met earnings expectations. The E-mini SP started the day on a strong note topping at our resistance levels at 1342.00-1344.00. The daily highs were done in the early going of the session and the selling pressure was present all day long. Stock holders took advantage of the previous day rally and strong opening to clean their positions and move to the bonds market. The E-mini SP closed at 1299.50 with a loss of 34.50 points, the E-mini Nasdaq ended the session at 1725.50, minus 46.50 points and the E-mini Russell settled at 663.30 loosing 18.30 points. The Dow cash failed to sustain above the 12400 area and lost 293 points finishing at 12099. Thursday, the equity indexes closed the shortened week on a high note. Markets surged more than 2% with heavy volumes due to option expiration, and finished near their best levels of the session. Financials led the way higher, GE was upgraded and news that the Fed expanded its announced plan to increase liquidity gave markets a boost. The E-mini SP started the day just above the 1300.00 area and pulled back during the first part of the session, but once the Philadelphia Fed number was released showing and improve from the previous month, the indexes started to move higher. After reaching their highs on the mid morning, the indexes held another pullback and rallied strong into the close. The E-mini SP added 25.50 points ending the session at 1324.75, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1750.00 and the E-mini Russell at 675.40. The Dow cash ended the holiday shortened week at 12361, 261 higher than the previous day. The major indexes were up more than 2.00% during the session.



THURSDAY’S MARKETS

After opening above the 1300.00 area on the March and June E-mini SP just to print the March option expiration close to that mark, the index pulled back to test 1295.50 and immediately reversed back to the opening highs at 1304.00 on the June contract. Once it broke up above that level, the index started a one hour uptrend that reached 1315.00 while the E-mini Nasdaq got as high as 1738.00. After a small pullback, the E-mini SP printed a double top at 1316.75 and a mid-day pullback took the index to our intraday support at 1308.00-1306.00 where buyers stepped in and pushed the index up above key resistance at 1320.00. The short tried to press the markets down bur after three successful test of 1316.25, the bulls gain the battle and the rally gained upside momentum reaching the daily highs at 1332.50 on the E-Mini SP, 1759.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 681.80 on the E-mini Russell. After posting double tops at the highs, the indexes pulled back into the close and settle bellow fair value in front of the long weekend. The E-mini SP added 25.50 points ending the session at 1324.75, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1750.00 and the E-mini Russell at 675.40. The Dow cash ended the holiday shortened week at 12361, 261 higher than the previous day. The major indexes were up more than 2.00% during the session.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Once more the indexes have failed to show follow through into their moves. The volatile and wide range week shows almost a 100 point range including the 1253.00 low posted last Monday nightly session, and every next day, the index has reversed the previous move showing a completely indecision in which way the markets could move. We came into last Thursday’s session considering that if the move up that we have been calling since last Monday before the FOMC interest rate decision, the trade action couldn’t show a down day, we were expecting at least a consolidation of Wednesday’s reversal after the huge post rate cut rally. The fact that the E-mini SP was able to end the day with solid gains, and was joined by the other indexes, opens once more the possibility of the move up that we are looking for. We have called the January 22 low as the quarterly low for the E-mini SP, we have seen a successful test of it, if not by last Monday Globex session, by printing a higher low on the regular trading hours chart. We have also seen, the way the Dow cash has held above the 11635 on various test and the way the E-mini Russell has come back from testing the waters bellow the 650.00 area, and just to finish the E-mini Nasdaq has been able to come back every time it has fell bellow the 1700.00 area. On the weekly charts we can see that the E-mini SP has been holding nicely the double bottom, and regardless that the possibilities to see a vertical run are not the best scenario, the bottoming process where double bottoms held and lower lows are posted could be indicating higher prices to come or a multi week consolidation period.

For today’s session I expect the first sign of a continuation pattern trying to bring the indexes back up above last week 1343.75 high on the E-mini SP in its way for a test of the 1363.00-1364.00 key resistance area, but for this to happen, the SP’s will have to be joined as last Friday by the other major indices, and a reversal on the uptrend showed on the Treasury Bonds will have to be seen. As the indexes closed last session bellow fair value, I will expect, if the markets are OK, to see a positive opening, and if that happens, buying the pullbacks could be the best play. BUT if the indexes open with a big down gap or the first pullback to 1320.00-1318.50 does not hold, then last week story where the markets move in the opposite direction of the previous session every next day will be the scenario in this consolidation and bottoming process. So on a lower opening that holds first support look to get long with thigh stops, and if the indexes open higher try to be a buyer on the first decent pullback, but BEWARE of a reversal from last week highs on the E-Mini SP or from the 12500 level on the Dow cash, those are the first hurdles, if those are broken to the upside, the objective will be the 1360’s on the E-mini SP and a test of 720.00 on the E-mini Russell, 1820.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 12700-12800 on the Dow cash.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above Thursday’s close at 1327.25-1329.00 on the E-mini SP, 1758.00-1759.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 677.60-679.50on the E-mini Russell, if the markets are OK, those should be punched easily and the indexes should reach the next resistance area at 1333.00-1335.00 on the E-mini SP, leaded by the E-mini Nasdaq testing the 1764.00-1765.00 levels and 683.10-685.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes break above those levels, the test of last week highs at 1340.00-1342.50 on the E-mini SP, 1777.00-1780.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 688.80-690.20 on the E-mini Russell could be in the cards. If the markets push higher, then 1350.00-1352.00 on the E-mini SP, 1789.00-1792.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 695.90-696.80 could be seen before the day is over.

There is support at 1320.50-1318.00 the E-mini SP, 1738.00-1736.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 671.00-669.80 on the E-mini Russell. Those must hold on an early pullback or get reversed from lower prices after the Housing Data if the markets are OK. If those not hold then Thursday’s buyers will start to get nervous, and if the indexes does not hold the next support levels at 1315.50-1314.00 on the E-mini SP, 1728.00-1726.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 666.50-665.40 bears will be pressing lower with chances of a test of the 1310.00-1308.00 area on the E-mini SP, 1722.00-1720.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 662.00-661.30 on the E-mini Russell. If those levels can not hold, then last Thursday’s rally will be considered completely reversed and only 1304.00-1302.00 on the E-mini SP will keep alive the chances of a rally to 1360.00 and beyond. GOOD LUCK


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1350.00-1352.00 1789.00-1792.00 695.90-696.80
Resistance 3 1340.00-1342.50 1777.00-1780.00 688.80-690.20
Resistance 2 1333.00-1335.00 1764.00-1765.00 683.10-685.60
Resistance 1 1327.25-1329.00 1758.00-1759.00 677.60-679.50
PIVOT 1314.50 1740.00 671.60
Support 1 1320.50-1318.00 1738.00-1736.00 671.00-669.80
Support 2 1315.50-1314.00 1728.00-1726.00 666.50-665.40
Support 3 1310.00-1308.00 1722.00-1720.00 662.00-661.30
Support 4 1304.00-1302.00 1713.00-1711.50 657.50-655.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1406.93 1841.46 721.12
1396.07 1829.54 715.38
1378.50 1810.25 706.10
1360.93 1790.96 696.82
1350.07 1779.04 691.08
1332.50 1759.75 681.80
1314.93 1740.46 672.52
1309.50 1734.50 669.65
1304.07 1728.54 666.78
1286.50 1709.25 657.50
1268.93 1689.96 648.22
1258.07 1678.04 642.48
1240.50 1658.75 633.20
1222.93 1639.46 623.92
1212.07 1627.54 618.18



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1351.50 1779.25 690.80
AS DAILY LOW 1305.50 1729.75 666.50​










Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com
 
Daily Trading Advisory

[


DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-March-2008

Stocks decline on weak economic data: 1.7 percent dip in last month's orders of durable goods, sales of new homes slumped in February, Oil prices soared more almost $5 a barrel and more problems for the banks.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM GDP Final
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Chain Deflator

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Another bad day for the US equity indexes as the markets were under pressure since the beginning of the session. The E-mini SP opened at 1348.00, bellow its previous settlement. The initial sell off pushed the index down to our support levels at 1342.00. An initial short covering rally before the Housing Starts data was released, managed to make new marginal intraday highs reaching 1348.75.on the E-mini SP where sellers stepped in and without mercy pushed the index down to 1337.50. An elaborated bounce topped at 1345.00 just to see selling coming into the markets once more. The E-mini SP tested its early lows and printed a 1-2-3 bottom above the 1338.00. The failure to make new lows resulted in a strong short covering rally that once it broke above the 1343.00 area ran up to 1349.50 joined by the E-mini Nasdaq which reached 1829.50 and the E-mini Russell getting as high as 704.60. Once those highs were posted and rejected, the selling resumed pushing the E-mini SP back bellow the 1340.00 area where a feeble bounce got the index back to 1343.00. Once the cash markets closed, the futures sold off strongly making new lows for the day at 1334.00 on the E-mini SP and 1805.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq. The E-mini SP closed at 1335.50 losing 16 points for the day, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1810.25 with a 15.75 point loss and the E-mini Russell at 698.30, 5.90 points bellow the previous session. The Dow cask lost 109.00 point and ended the session at 12422.00. All the future indexes settled well bellow fair value.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The way the market acted yesterday keeps the upside bias intact, and the fact that the E-mini Nasdaq is leading joined by a “strong” E-mini Russell should give the boost for a move above the 1360.00 area. On the other side of the coin, the indexes look toppy and overbought so only a strong break above yesterday’s highs will give the bulls the total control of the markets. March’s last week of trading usually shows a bullish tone as end of the first quarter tries to settle at reasonable high prices. For today’s session nothing good happens until yesterday’s highs are punched and the indexes remain vulnerable all the time that those highs hold, another move to the 1360.00’s that fail could be catastrophic for the bullish scenario and keeps open the possibility of a sell off, but nothing bad happens all the time that yesterday’s lows can hold the selling pressure. I will like to see during the first hour of trading a break of yesterday’s highs on the E-mini Nasdaq and E-mini Russell to press the SP’s to join the rally, so I definitely will go long if I see those two indexes in positive territory. Beware of another day like yesterday where the markets keep consolidating and showing indecision about the next move.”

We have been looking for higher prices into the end of quarter, but we have two days on a row where the markets get seriously sold during the last part of the session, and the fact that the E-mini SP was not able to maintain a close above the 1342.00 level puts in jeopardy our bullish scenario. The selling has been done without panic and conviction, and stills looks more like a profit taking move than the resume of the downtrend, but the indexes will have to prove their selves since the beginning of the session, a negative opening without an immediate strong reversal or failure to break above initial resistance could result in a wide range down day. The indexes will have to work hard to be able to push above initial resistance and build a base above the 1342.00 area on the E-mini SP, 1820.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.00 on the E-mini Russell, all these levels must be joined by the Dow cash holding above the 12400 level, if that happens then, at least, the indexes will come back to neutral territory waiting for the next move. An early sell off that does not hold the 1328.50 on the E-mini SP and 1798.00-1796.00 levels on the E-mini Nasdaq will indicate a capitulation by the bulls. We get the GDP final numbers and the Initial Claims data before the opening, there is not reason to expect a lot of beauty in those figures, but if the indexes hold the initial selling pressure and starts to push higher we could see a trend day that possibly reaches 1350.00 on the E-mini SP. .




TODAY’S SESSION

There is strong resistance just above yesterday’s close at 1337.00-1338.00 on the E-mini SP, 1815.50-1817.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.80-701.50 on the E-mini Russell, those must be exceeded easily if the markets want to show an advance, and if that happens, the next levels at 1341.00-1342.00 on the E-mini SP, 1825.00-1826.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 703.50-705.20 on the E-mini Russell should be tested. This level on the E-mini Russell has been the last top, so breaking above it should trigger a short covering rally on that index and buying interest on the other ones. But if the markets are weak a reversal could be seen from those areas. If the indexes slice above them the next obstacles will be 1345.25-1346.75 on the E-mini SP, 1831.00-1832.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.60-710.10 on the E-mini Russell. If the E-mini SP manages to break above those levels, closing yesterday’s gap at 1351.75 will be the only obstacle on its way to the 1360.00’s.

There is good support at 1332.00-1333.00 on the E-mini SP, 1807.50-1805.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 697.50-696.60 on the E-mini Russell, if the market gets there early and holds I will be a buyer with tight stops. But if those does not hold, a false break that reaches 1329.00-1328.00 on the E-mini SP, 1801.00-1798.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 694.30-693.20 on the E-mini Russell which has been holding during all the week, must be immediately reversed, if that doesn’t happen and the indexes break lower the bears will have complete control pushing prices lower to 1324.00-1322.00 on the E-mini SP, 1795.00-1793.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 690.20-689.10 on the E-mini Russell. Trading bellow those levels opens the door for a continuation of the selling pressure that could reach the lower trend line. It will be crucial that the Dow Cash holds above the 12400 or a 300 points drop or more could be seen in that index. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1351.00-1352.50 1841.25-1843.00 717.80-719.30
Resistance 3 1345.25-1346.75 1831.00-1832.00 708.60-710.10
Resistance 2 1341.00-1342.00 1825.00-1826.50 703.50-705.20
Resistance 1 1337.00-1338.00 1815.50-1817.00 700.80-701.50
PIVOT 1340.50 1814.25 699.40
Support 1 1332.00-1333.00 1807.50-1805.50 697.50-696.60
Support 2 1329.00-1328.00 1801.00-1798.50 694.30-693.20
Support 3 1324.00-1322.00 1795.00-1793.00 690.20-689.10
Support 4 1311.00-1310.00 1787.00-1785.00 681.50-680.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1380.47 1874.25 719.49
1376.28 1867.76 717.31
1369.50 1857.25 713.80
1362.72 1846.75 710.29
1358.53 1840.26 708.11
1351.75 1829.75 704.60
1344.97 1819.25 701.09
1342.88 1816.00 700.00
1340.78 1812.76 698.91
1334.00 1802.25 695.40
1327.22 1791.75 691.89
1323.03 1785.26 689.71
1316.25 1774.75 686.20
1309.47 1764.25 682.69
1305.28 1757.76 680.51



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1343.50 1820.00 701.50
AS DAILY LOW 1325.75 1793.00 692.30​





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading Advisory and Trading Alerts | TheMiniTrade.com[/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-March-2008

GDP up.6% as expected and Oracle disappointing news keep the indexes under pressure as they fail to sustain intraday gains.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Stocks continue in their struggle to move down without any panic move. The E-mini SP started the day in what it seemed to be a positive session. The index opened at 1346.00 and got sold during the first minutes of trading to the 1342.00-1340.00 support area. A feeble bounce failed to make new highs and the E-mini SP sold off strongly reaching 1330.50 while the E-mini Nasdaq which was under pressure since the beginning of the session tested the 1796.00 level. The indexes rebounded strongly from the lows, where our updated subscribers took advantage of the lower prices entering into a great swing trade. The E-mini SP started to move up and the short covering rally took the index back up to 1348.00 with the E-mini Nasdaq testing the preopening highs at 1816.50. The highs were rejected in both indexes and after failing to make new highs the downtrend resumed. The E-mini Russell tested once more the 704.00-706.00 resistance area which has been a wall to allow further advancing in this index. Once the e-mini SP broke back bellow 1342.00 it was all for the bulls as the index pushed down testing 1332.75. Another short covering rally reached 1343.00 but the move was sold strongly and as in the past trading sessions the indexes got sold during the last hour of trading. The E-mini SP made a new low at 1326.50 and the E-mini Nasdaq at 1782.75 before bouncing back into the end. The E-mini SP settled at 1329.75, minus 5.75 points, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1792.oo with a loss of 18.25 points and the E-mini Russell at 692.70 with a loss of 5.60 points during the session. The Dow cash failed to sustain the 12400 area loosing 120 points ending the day at 12302.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” We have been looking for higher prices into the end of quarter, but we have two days on a row where the markets get seriously sold during the last part of the session, and the fact that the E-mini SP was not able to maintain a close above the 1342.00 level puts in jeopardy our bullish scenario. The selling has been done without panic and conviction, and stills looks more like a profit taking move than the resume of the downtrend, but the indexes will have to prove their selves since the beginning of the session, a negative opening without an immediate strong reversal or failure to break above initial resistance could result in a wide range down day. The indexes will have to work hard to be able to push above initial resistance and build a base above the 1342.00 area on the E-mini SP, 1820.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.00 on the E-mini Russell, all these levels must be joined by the Dow cash holding above the 12400 level, if that happens then, at least, the indexes will come back to neutral territory waiting for the next move. An early sell off that does not hold the 1328.50 on the E-mini SP and 1798.00-1796.00 levels on the E-mini Nasdaq will indicate a capitulation by the bulls. If the indexes hold the initial selling pressure and starts to push higher we could see a trend day that possibly reaches 1350.00 on the E-mini SP.”

The markets got the initial sell off where we were looking to enter long for a swing trade but as in the past sessions the rally was not able to hold. The selling has been done without volume and the past three day settlements do not indicate a serious sell off as the losses has been modest. There has not been follow through to push the markets lower on a strong note and the overbought conditions seems to be worked out. There are more economic reports to be released before the opening and during the early part of the session that will keep the indexes under pressure. But if those are not as bad as expected, we can see a good rally particularly if yesterday’s settlement holds, and if that happens and the Dow cash gets back above the 12400.00 area with the E-mini SP holding above 1342.00 I don’t expect another late sell off. On the other side of the coin, if the markets move up early and test initial resistance without pushing higher and does not hold a pullback to initial support the selling could gain momentum and push the E-mini SP lower for a test of the 1320.00 area, and if that low does not hold then the index will be on its way to the 1300.00’s with all the buyers out. You have to remember that the resistance levels have been rejected strongly and only breaking above them will trigger a multi day short covering rally. The E-mini SP is already down the three last sessions, so if it does make new lows or don’t start to move up by today’s session, the last rally should be considered only a countertrend in a downtrend market. The low on the E-mini Nasdaq triggered a 10 point reaction, so I assumed that a lot of shorts should be trapped there, and if the markets open positive they will run for cover. The same for the E-mini Russell where huge stops have been build above the triple top formation at 704.90-706.00. I have been waiting for a rally that move prices above the 1363.00-1364.00 area on the E-mini SP, but if the selling pressure does not end today and the 1320.00 area gets broken on a close, I will have to forget my short term bullishness.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1333.00-1334.00 on the E-mini SP, 1803.00-1804.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 695.20-696.40on the E-mini Russell, those must be exceeded in particular on the E-mini Nasdaq which has to show a strong day or something is really bad with that market, if that happens, the next levels at 1341.00-1343.00 on the E-mini SP, 1814.00-1816.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.10-701.30on the E-mini Russell should be tested. This level on the E-mini SP is A STRONG PIVOTAL AREA so breaking above it should trigger a short covering rally on that index and buying interest on the other ones. But if the markets fail there, the selling pressure will start. If those are crossed then the next hurdles will be 1349.50-1350.50 on the E-mini SP, 1823.00-1825.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 704.90-706.50 on the E-mini Russell. Those are incredible strong resistance areas, so something extremely good has to happen for the markets to trade above them.

There is good support at 1327.50-1325.50 on the E-mini SP, 1788.00-1786.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 691.50-690.20 on the E-mini Russell, if the market gets there and holds a strong reaction rally could be triggered. But if those does not hold, a test 1323.00-1321.50 on the E-mini SP, 1782.00-1780.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 687.80-686.50 on the E-mini Russell MUST be immediately reversed or the trend will be definitely to the downside, if that happens then the last support levels area at 1317.50-1316.50 on the E-mini SP, 1775.00-1772.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 684.00-682.80 on the E-mini Russell. Breaking bellow those levels opens the door for a serious sell off that in a Friday session could have enough momentum to have a bloody session. GOOD LUCK.




TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1356.75-1358.00 1836.00-1838.00 709.80-710.50
Resistance 3 1349.50-1350.50 1823.00-1825.00 704.90-706.50
Resistance 2 1341.00-1343.00 1814.00-1816.00 700.10-701.30
Resistance 1 1333.00-1334.00 1803.00-1804.00 695.20-696.40
PIVOT 1334.75 1799.50 696.30
Support 1 1327.50-1325.50 1788.00-1786.00 691.50-690.20
Support 2 1323.00-1321.50 1782.00-1780.00 687.80-686.50
Support 3 1317.50-1316.50 1775.00-1772.50 684.00-682.80
Support 4 1313.25-1312.00 1766.00-1764.00 678.50-677.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1382.79 1890.09 726.74
1377.71 1880.41 723.56
1369.50 1864.75 718.40
1361.29 1849.09 713.24
1356.21 1839.41 710.06
1348.00 1823.75 704.90
1339.79 1808.09 699.74
1337.25 1803.25 698.15
1334.71 1798.41 696.56
1326.50 1782.75 691.40
1318.29 1767.09 686.24
1313.21 1757.41 683.06
1305.00 1741.75 677.90
1296.79 1726.09 672.74
1291.71 1716.41 669.56



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1338.75 1807.75 698.80
AS DAILY LOW 1317.25 1767.00 685.30​








Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 4-APRIL-2008

Jobless Claims highest since September 2005, Bernanke’s arguments defending Bear Stearns’s rescue and a better than expected ISM Services report resulted in a consolidation session holding the recent gains.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 Nonfarm Payrolls
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Average Workweek


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The markets opened lower but recovered after testing our support levels. The E-mini SP started the session at 1363.00 but reversed immediately reaching almost the previous day settlement at 1369.75 with the release of the ISM Services index which came out better than expected. The upside move was rejected and the index moved back down printing a higher low just at our support levels starting an upside move that once it broke above our 1368.50 intraday resistance area resulted in a push up to 1377.75, the daily highs. The E-mini Nasdaq reached 1873.75 and the E-mini Russell made its daily highs at 716.90. The E-mini SP pulled back to 1371.00 just above the previous day settlement and bounced back once more reaching 1375.75. Unable to make new highs for the session, the indexes pulled back once more testing 1366.75 on the E-mini SP but rallied into the end to a positive close above fair value. For the day the E-mini SP settled at 1373.50, 2.50 points up, the E-mini Nasdaq finished the session at 1867.25, adding 5.00 points to its previous close and the E-mini Russell closed the day at 715.30, 3.10 up for the day. The Dow cash added 20 points and manage to close for a second day above 12600 at 12626.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The indexes are sitting near their overall highs, and it is unlikely to see a break higher prior the Friday’s release of the non-farm payrolls numbers. Only a solid break of yesterday’s highs will indicate a continuation of this recovery rally. It is likely that we will see another day of side ways action with a slightly bearish bias before the markets made their next move, so until proven different, selling near resistance and buying near the support areas, with tight stops is the best strategy. I don’t discard a 10-12 points pullback on the E-mini SP that coincide with a test of the 12500 level on the Dow cash. The fact that the VIX.X moved up yesterday from lows not seen since February, opens the door for some selling before the indexes create the conditions for the next move; a higher VIX.X with the indexes holding above yesterday’s lows will indicate an upside move, but a higher VIX.X with the markets falling will result in a substantial pullback that could drive the E-mini SP to the 1342.00 area. Specific, if the market holds, I will expect to see the E-mini SP getting closer to the 1400.00 area during the coming sessions. For today, I will keep trading my resistance and support levels until a clear breakout of yesterday’s range is seen. If the markets open up, I will try to short once the rally run out of steam, but on a lower opening I will enter long near support with tight stops.”

The early weakness that was bought and the indexes close, holding their recent gains should be seen as positive, and probably a built base for another leg up. We will get before the market opens, the Nonfarm payrolls numbers that will dictate the action during the early part of the session. The two days consolidation between 1360.00-1380.00 on the E-mini SP will have to be resolved, and my bias, calls for higher prices, but volumes have been low during the last weeks, and for this uptrend to be sustainable they will have to increase. The fact that the Dow cash closed for a second consecutive day above the 12600, continuing to built out near the highs, makes possible a breakout for a test of the key 12800 level, and if that happens, the E-mini SP may be above 1390.00, This bullish argument, does not mean that we are back in a bull market, but it does qualified the last low as a short term low, and this rally, as a countertrend move in an overall downside trend. So, holding yesterday’s lows around 1360.00 will result in additional short covering, but take in consideration that the E-mini SP could show an extended consolidation and sideways trend during the next two weeks before weakness comes back into the markets. It will take a breakout above the 1410.00-1420.00 area to be able to call a real recovery. For today’s session, if the Nonfarm payrolls data trigger and early rally that breaks out above the recent highs around 1380.00, the market should hold their gains into the end of the session, and if the release of the numbers, result in a sell off, the last two days lows around 1360.00 will have to hold in order to maintain the uptrend intact. Only breaking out of the current range will trigger a substantial move, and if it happens to the upside, more short covering pushing prices higher will be seen.





TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at yesterday’s last highs at 1375.50-1376.50 on the E-mini SP, 1870.00-1872.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 716.40-717.40 on the E-mini Russell. If those are not rejected, a test of the recent highs at 1379.00-1381.00 on the E-mini SP, 1878.00-1879.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 719.70-721.70 could be seen. If the rally there and the upside momentum disappears, look to get short for a 12-15 points pullback, but if those get blown, then 1384.75-1386.00 on the E-mini SP, 1884.00-1886.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.10-725.20 on the E-mini Russell will be seen. Those should be a real pain for the rally, as they coincide with the 12800 on the Dow cash, but if the markets keeps rallying, then the E-mini SP will get closer to the 1400.00 level.

There is support at yesterday’s late lows at 1368.50-1366.50 on the E-mini SP, 1858.00-1856.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 713.20-712.10 on the E-mini Russell, if the market holds those levels, I will look for new highs, but if those are not bought, then a test of the last two days lows at 1362.75-1361.50 on the E-mini SP, 1850.00-1848.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.90-708.10 on the E-mini Russell must be bought with passion as the “last” opportunity to get long before the E-mini SP get to 1400.00. If those fail, then 1355.00-1354.00 on the E-mini SP, 1842.00-1840.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq, and 705.30-704.60 on the E-mini Russell will be the last support before the trend starts to roll to the downside. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1394.00-1396.00 1892.00-1894.00 730.00-731.30
Resistance 3 1384.75-1386.00 1884.00-1886.00 724.10-725.20
Resistance 2 1379.00-1381.00 1878.00-1879.50 719.70-721.70
Resistance 1 1375.50-1376.50 1870.00-1872.00 716.40-717.40
PIVOT 1370.25 1861.25 711.50
Support 1 1368.50-1366.50 1858.00-1856.00 713.20-712.10
Support 2 1362.75-1361.50 1850.00-1848.00 708.90-708.10
Support 3 1355.00-1354.00 1842.00-1840.00 705.30-704.60
Support 4 1351.00-1350.00 1834.00-1832.00 700.90-699.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1407.28 1924.31 735.67
1402.97 1916.94 732.93
1396.00 1905.00 728.50
1389.03 1893.06 724.07
1384.72 1885.69 721.33
1377.75 1873.75 716.90
1370.78 1861.81 712.47
1368.63 1858.13 711.10
1366.47 1854.44 709.73
1359.50 1842.50 705.30
1352.53 1830.56 700.87
1348.22 1823.19 698.13
1341.25 1811.25 693.70
1334.28 1799.31 689.27
1329.97 1791.94 686.53



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1384.75 1886.00 721.90
AS DAILY LOW 1366.50 1854.75 710.30​


Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE]
 
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