Daily trading advisory

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 08-April-2008

US markets ended the session on a weak note after an early rally as investors pull out money from the table before the earnings season kick off. February Consumer credit fell to $5.2 billion, and Alcoa profit drop on higher cost.


ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

US markets failed to sustain their early rally. The indexes gapped up at the open as Merrill declared that we have seen the worst on the credit crises. The E-mini SP opened above 1380.00 and pulled back to 1377.50, a small bounce to the 1382.00 area was sold and the index pushed down printing its early lows at 1376.00. The lows were bought and all the indexes started to move up, once the 1380.50 level got crossed to the upside, the E-mini SP reached its Globex highs at 1385.50. A 3 point pullback was bough and the index rallied to its daily highs at 1389.00, just one point above last Friday Globex highs. The E-mini Nasdaq reached 1893.75 and the E-mini Russell 720.60 as the Dow cash managed to trade above the 12700 area. The rally failed to hold, and once the E-mini SP broke down back bellow the 1385.00 level, everything was selling pressure. The E-mini SP didn’t stop until reaching 1375.00 were a feeble bounce was seen and the profit taking continued driving the indexes to new lows during the last hour of trading. The E-mini SP tested its nightly lows at 1369.50 and ended the session at 1372.25 almost unchanged for the session. The E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1865.75, minus 4.00 points for the day and the E-mini Russell at 711.40 losing 2.40 points. The Dow cash got reversed from 12733 and closed the day at 12612, 3 points up.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The way the market has been reacting to the lows is typical of continued strength ahead, and the breakout should occur between Monday and Tuesday where another leg up could be seen. The first objective will be a test of Friday’s Globex highs at 1388.00 on the E-mini SP, which coincide with the 12800 level on the Dow cash where strong resistance may be seen, but if that level is violated, a strong short covering rally will be seen before the markets get in troubles once more. We have to be very careful as the low volumes not only indicate an absence of selling pressure, but also a lack of confidence to move above the next key resistance levels at 1392.00-1393.00 on the E-mini SP and 12800 on the Dow cash. Breaking above them will trigger additional buying pressure or create a bull trap if the market fails to hold above them.”
The E=mini SP reached, as we were expecting, last Friday’s Globex highs before being reversed to close near the daily lows. The Dow cash failed in its first test above the 12700 area. The fact that the rally seen during the early morning was not sustainable and the resilience of the indexes to break lower, open the door for more consolidation behavior between the 1360.00 and 1390.00 area on the E-mini SP, but the indecision and lack of convincement after three days that the indexes has closed almost unchanged, open the door for a pullback. The early lows in the VIX.X during yesterday’s early rally were a clear indication of over complacency and overbought conditions after last week strong rally, and if the indexes won’t hold their recent lows a short term top is in place. Today, after the opening, the Pending home sales data will be released, and later on the day traders will focus on the FOMC minutes, so expect volatility and uncertainty until those are out. A pullback that holds last week lows at 1361.00-1360.00 will be positive and keep the indexes range bounded for the coming sessions, but breaking bellow them will signal lower prices.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance above yesterday’s settlement at 1375.75-1377.50 on the E-mini SP, 1874.25-1876.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 713.40-714.90 on the E-mini Russell, those will have to be crossed higher and hold to bring the indexes back to a neutral to slightly bullish position, if that happens then a test of 1382.75-1384.25 on the E-mini SP, 1883.00-1884.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq levels and 717.30-718.1 could be a good upside objective for today’s session. If those are not sold, then yesterday’s highs will act as strong resistance at 1387.00-1389.00 on the E-mini SP, 1890.00-1892.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.60-721.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the euphoria persist, those will be crossed bringing the E-mini SP close to the 1400.00 area.

There is support at 1367.50-1365.50 the E-mini SP, 1862.00-1860.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and709.60-708.40 on the E-mini Russell, trading bellow will push the indexes down to a test of the short term key support areas at 1361.50-1360.00 on the E-mini SP, 1854.50-1852.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 705.50-704.9 0on the E-mini Russell will be seen. If buyers don’t step up and buy these lows, then the trend will be rolling down and 1357.75-1356.50 on the E-mini SP, 1843.25-1841.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 702.60-700.80 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold or fear could trigger additional pressure that drive the E-mini SP to the 1350.00’s.GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1393.50-1396.00 1903.00-1905.25 724.60-725.20
Resistance 3 1387.00-1389.00 1890.00-1892.00 720.60-721.40
Resistance 2 1382.75-1384.25 1883.00-1884.75 717.30-718.10
Resistance 1 1375.75-1377.50 1874.25-1876.00 713.40-714.90
PIVOT 1377.00 1874.00 713.90
Support 1 1367.50-1365.50 1862.00-1860.00 709.60-708.40
Support 2 1361.50-1360.00 1854.50-1852.00 705.50-704.90
Support 3 1357.75-1356.50 1843.25-1841.75 702.60-700.80
Support 4 1351.25-1350.00 1835.00-1834.00 696.50-694.30


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1420.15 1943.91 738.07
1415.60 1936.59 735.53
1408.25 1924.75 731.40
1400.90 1912.91 727.27
1396.35 1905.59 724.73
1389.00 1893.75 720.60
1381.65 1881.91 716.47
1379.38 1878.25 715.20
1377.10 1874.59 713.93
1369.75 1862.75 709.80
1362.40 1850.91 705.67
1357.85 1843.59 703.13
1350.50 1831.75 699.00
1343.15 1819.91 694.87
1338.60 1812.59 692.33



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1380.00 1879.75 716.50
AS DAILY LOW 1361.25 1848.75 705.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-April-2008

UPS early warning and lower forecast for the year and Crude oil record prices kept the markets under pressure in a light volume session.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Trade Balance
2:00 PM Treasury Budget


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The equity indexes were under pressure during the session but managed to partially recover their losses into the end. The E-mini SP opened almost unchanged for the session and moved lower reaching the 1362.00 area. Some short covering before the release of the economic data resulted in a bounce to 1366.00 where the move stopped and the index fell once more to test the important 1362.00-1361.00 support levels. A second attempt to bring the market higher failed and the index started to trend down. Once the E-mini SP broke bellow the support levels, the downside accelerated and reached 1355.00, the next support levels. A side ways pattern between the lows and 1359.00 was resolved once more to the downside as the E-mini SP made new lows at 1351.50 joined by the E-mini Nasdaq that reached the 1820.50 and the E-mini Russell 696.10.. those lows held and the indexes rallied nicely into the end closing above fair value. For the day the E-mini SP lost 10.75 points ending the session at 1360.25, the E-mini Nasdaq that rallied almost 20 points during the last half hour closed the session at 1837.25, minus 17.50 and the E-mini Russell settled at 700.40 with a loss of 13.30 for the day. The Dow cash managed to come back and finished at 12527, minus 49 points.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Yesterday I wrote:” The capability of the indexes to recover during the last hour of trading should keep the markets in a good shape all the time that yesterday’s lows can hold on a pullback. Yesterday’s volumes were extremely light which shows that the institutions have been out of the game and indecision is present at these levels. The range is expanding and the next few days could consolidate between yesterday’s lows and Monday’s highs. The positive signs seems to be short term predominant as every day bad news have only resulted in moderate selling and not a collapse of the markets. So I will be a buyer all the time that yesterday’s lows can hold and I will look to get long early if the market test initial support during the first minutes of the session. There is early support at 1357.00-1355.50 the E-mini SP, 1835.00-1833.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 698.50-696.90 on the E-mini Russell, I want to be a buyer if those hold an initial pullback, but if yesterday’s late recovery was only a short covering rally, then, yesterday’s lows at 1352.00-1250.00 on the E-mini SP, 1828.50-1826.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 693.50-693.10 on the E-mini Russell will be tested. If buyers don’t jump to buy the double bottoms, then the markets are in problems.”
The successful test of Wednesday’s lows have printed a low for this week correction from Monday’s highs and the strength on the E-mini Nasdaq which has lead the late rallies was very clear during yesterday’s trading session. So buying the pullbacks should be the way to go. We get the Michigan sentiment preliminary data half hour after the opening, and, if the market can hold the impact of a bad number, the way should be to the upside. So if the market opens strong I will expect an early pullback before the announcement, but that pullback should be bought all the time that holds above initial support. If this plays out and the E-mini SP manages to trade above 1372.50, the way to a strong short covering rally will be open, and if the volumes are higher than this week averages, the rally could gain some good momentum. I will closely follow this resistance area and the 12600 on the Dow cash to establish market direction. A failure at those levels could result in a 10 points pullback that brings the E-mini SP back to the important 1362.00-1360.00 support area. Only breaking back bellow the 1359.75-1357.50 area will place yesterday’s recovery from the lows in risk.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1364.00-1366.50 on the E-mini SP, 1855.00-1856.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 709.10-710.60 on the E-mini Russell. If those are exceeded, then the indexes should go for the 1371.00-1372.50 on the E-mini SP, 1863.00-1865.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq levels and 714.10-716.50 on the E-mini Russell. Those levels will be hard to punch if the markets is headed to stay range bounded without running to the highs, but if the indexes succeed to trade higher, then 1377.00-1379.00 on the E-mini SP, 1878.00-1880.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.70-721.40 on the E-mini Russell will be seen before the rally runs out of steam. If those are exceeded a melt up move to last Monday’s highs will add green color to this week low volume markets.

There is early support at 1359.50-1357.75 the E-mini SP, 1845.00-1844.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 703.20-702.60 on the E-mini Russell, those must hold to maintain the uptrend intact, even if the indexes sold off after the Michigan sentiment data release. If that happens, a 15 points rally at least on the E-mini SP may be seen, but if those don’t hold, then a test of the double bottom at 1352.50-1350.50 on the E-mini SP, 1833.50-1831.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 698.70-696.90 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold, or the indexes will be under extreme selling pressure, if that happens the next stations area at 1343.50-1342.00 on the E-mini SP, 1824.00-1822.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 691.30-689.50 on the E-mini Russell. If the market trades lower then a bloody Friday will place and end to the last rally. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1386.00-1388.00 1890.00-1892.00 725.20-726.50
Resistance 3 1377.00-1379.00 1878.00-1880.00 720.70-721.40
Resistance 2 1371.00-1372.50 1863.00-1865.00 714.10-716.50
Resistance 1 1364.00-1366.50 1855.00-1856.00 709.10-710.60
PIVOT 1361.00 1850.75 704.60
Support 1 1359.50-1357.75 1845.00-1844.00 703.20-702.60
Support 2 1352.50-1350.50 1833.50-1831.00 698.70-696.90
Support 3 1343.50-1342.00 1824.00-1822.25 691.30-689.50
Support 4 1335.00-1333.00 1818.00-1816.50 681.90-679.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1398.37 1945.89 737.15
1394.13 1934.86 733.35
1387.25 1917.00 727.20
1380.37 1899.14 721.05
1376.13 1888.11 717.25
1369.25 1870.25 711.10
1362.37 1852.39 704.95
1360.25 1846.88 703.05
1358.13 1841.36 701.15
1351.25 1823.50 695.00
1344.37 1805.64 688.85
1340.13 1794.61 685.05
1333.25 1776.75 678.90
1326.37 1758.89 672.75
1322.13 1747.86 668.95



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1375.00 1887.75 717.40
AS DAILY LOW 1357.00 1841.25 701.30​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 14-April-2008

US markets fell sharply as GE shocks investors after it post lower Q1 profit and cuts outlook. Consumer Confidence hits its lowest of the last 25 years.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 18–APRIL-2008

R3 1409.00
R2 1392.00
R1 1366.00
PP 1352.00
S1 1325.00
S2 1294.00
S3 1257.00


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex- auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories


WEEKLY RECAP

US markets ended the week under extreme pressure as GE shocks the markets with its market value plunging by $47 billion, the largest in two decades. The E-mini SP started the week on a positive note as Merrill declared that the worst in the credit crises has been seen. The markets opened with a gap but failed to sustain their gains after investors pulled out money before the earnings season kick off. Alcoa reported lower profits and consumer credit fell sharply to $5.2 billion. After reaching 1389.00 during the early part of the session, the indexes get sold and finished the day almost unchanged. The E-mini SP ended the session at 1372.25 almost unchanged for the session. The E-mini Nasdaq settled at 1865.75, minus 4.00 points for the day and the E-mini Russell at 711.40 losing 2.40 points. The Dow cash got reversed from 12733 and closed the day at 12612, 3 points up. Tuesday was a boring session as the indexes continued to show extremely low trading volumes. AMD and Novellus disappointed and the Pending Home Sales numbers were down 1.90%. A lower opening was bought and the indexes managed to close almost unchanged. The E-mini SP lost 1.25 points closing at 1371.00, the E-mini NASDAQ ended the session at 1854.75, 11 points lower than the previous session, and the E-mini Russell at 713.70 up 2.30 for the day. The Dow cash settled at 12576, minus 36 points. Wednesday’s session started with additional profit warnings and weakness as UPS lowered its outlook and Crude oil inventories showed a surprise decline, record crude prices kept the markets under pressure in another low volume session. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 10.75 points ending the session at 1360.25, the E-mini Nasdaq that rallied almost 20 points during the last half hour closed the session at 1837.25, minus 17.50 and the E-mini Russell settled at 700.40 with a loss of 13.30 for the day. The Dow cash managed to come back and finished at 12527, minus 49 points. Thursday, was another non event trading session, despite a sharply fall on the weekly jobless claims and a positive forecast from Wal Mart for the coming months. The indexes started on a weak note, the E-mini SP tested the previous day lows but managed to rebound into the end, for the day the E-mini SP lost 10.75 points ending the session at 1360.25, the E-mini Nasdaq that rallied almost 20 points during the last half hour closed the session at 1837.25, minus 17.50 and the E-mini Russell settled at 700.40 with a loss of 13.30 for the day. The Dow cash managed to come back from lower prices and finished at 12527, minus 49 points. Friday’s preopening the indexes were trading with gains but before the opening GE profit miss and lower outlook stunned investors resulting in a sharp drop in all the indexes, in addition, the Michigan Sentiment reading which measures consumer confidence fell to levels not seen since 2002. The indexes opened well bellow their previous closes and after a few recovery attempts got beaten ending the session with huge loses. The E-mini SP settled at 1335.50 losing 27.25 points for the day, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1806.25, minus 52.50 points, almost a 3%, and the E-mini Russell closed at 688.40 losing 19.20 points. The Dow cash was hammered as the index lost 256 points finishing the day at 12325. For the week the SP was down 2.7%, the Nasdaq and Russell 3.4 and 3.6% and the Dow cash 2.3%.






FRIDAY’S MARKETS

The markets broke the last three days consolidation getting sold strongly. The E-mini SP opened with a down gap after being trading higher on the Globex session. Once the GE numbers came out before the opening the E-mini SP sold off from a nightly high at 1366.00 reaching 1346.00 before the opening. The index bounced back just bellow the 1352.50-1350.00 area and that was all for the bulls. After making a new low at 1344.00, the indexes tried hard to come back as the E-mini SP reached the 1350.00 area. Sellers took advantage of the short covering rally and a trend down session which kept the markets under pressure all day long. A second recovery attempt failed at 1348.00 and the E-mini SP pushed down to test the important 1342.00-1340.00 support area. Once those levels were broken, the index pushed down to the next support area and reached 1331.75 before bouncing a bit into the close. The E-mini SP settled at 1335.50 losing 27.25 points for the day, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1806.25, minus 52.50 points, almost a 3%, and the E-mini Russell closed at 688.40 losing 19.20 points. The Dow cash was hammered as the index lost 256 points finishing the day at 12325.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Thursday and Friday I wrote:” 1352.00-1250.00 on the E-mini SP, 1828.50-1826.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 693.50-693.10 on the E-mini Russell will be tested. If buyers don’t jump to buy the double bottoms, then the markets are in problems. If the market opens strong I will expect an early pullback before the announcement, but that pullback should be bought all the time that holds above initial support. If this plays out and the E-mini SP manages to trade above 1372.50, the way to a strong short covering rally will be open, and if the volumes are higher than this week averages, the rally could gain some good momentum. I will closely follow this resistance area and the 12600 on the Dow cash to establish market direction. A failure at those levels could result in a 10 points pullback that brings the E-mini SP back to the important 1362.00-1360.00 support area. Only breaking back bellow the 1359.75-1357.50 area will place yesterday’s recovery from the lows in risk.”

The shocking news of GE resulted in a strong sell off that has breaking the three day tight consolidation and upside move. The E-mini SP will have to find a low during today’s session or it will be a clear indication that it has resumed its downtrend. This week is full of economic data starting today before the opening with the Retail Sales numbers and ending next Friday with the April option expiration, so I assume that independent of the impact that the economic data will have during the trading session, the markets will try to hold, if not to rally close to next Friday. The E-mini SP should find support around 1320.00, but if that level fail, then a test of 1300.00 or lower could be in the cards. It is not common to see two consecutive trend days, so the indexes should tried to consolidate last Friday’ huge sell of before the next move is seen. The indexes has worked off already the overbought conditions, but the indicators point to lower prices all the time that the E-mini SP does not trade back above the 1350.00 area. Friday’s broke downwards was accompanied by strong volume, and if that was enough to clean the bullishness seen during the last 15 days, the E-mini SP will have to hold the 1320.00 area and the Dow cash will have to stay above the 12200 level. Today’s session should continue to see selling pressure, so going short after the rally attempts stall may be the best play, only if the markets rallied immediately after the opening placing a reversal, last Friday trending down pattern will be negate. So, if the markets start on a positive mood, look for the rally to end after the first 30-40 minutes and go short at the first sign of weakness, but if the pullback does not exceed three points, stay with the trend as probably they will try to move higher. If we see another gap to the downside at the beginning of the session, try to go long near support but don’t overstay in your position, be quick to take your profits.





TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance 1339.00-1340.75 on the E-mini SP, 1812.50-1814.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 693.10-695.40 on the E-mini Russell, if the markets are weak, those won’t be exceeded and should offer a good short entry. But if Friday’s sell off will get reversed, then the indexes should move up to 1345.50-1346.75 on the E-mini SP, 1821.00-1823.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq levels and 698.10-699.70 on the E-mini Russell. That is all they should rally if the trend is down or the indexes will consolidate at these lower process. If the markets are strong then a test of the 1351.25-1352.50 on the E-mini SP, 1832.00-1834.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 703.00-704.40 will be tested before the session is over.

There is support at 1332.00-1330.25 the E-mini SP, 1799.00-1797.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 686.30-685.20 on the E-mini Russell. Those should hold at least on the early going as the indexes may try to close an opening gap, but failure to sustain the markets above them will result in a in a test of 1326.75-1325.00 on the E-mini SP, 1792.00-1790.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 681.40-679.80 on the E-mini Russell. If those hold the E-mini SP should be able to rally all the way up to 1338.00-1340.00, but if those can not hold the selling pressure, a test of the Key support areas at 1321.00-1319.50 on the E-mini SP, 1780.00-1788.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 674.40-673.20 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold or the indexes could see a panic sell off that take prices down to 1315.00-1314.50or lower on the E-mini SP. Id the indexes trade down during the last hour of the session, I will expect the markets to made their lows at the end. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1359.00-1361.00 1842.00-1844.00 798.50-710.10
Resistance 3 1351.25-1352.50 1832.00-1834.00 703.00-704.40
Resistance 2 1345.50-1346.75 1821.00-1823.50 698.10-699.70
Resistance 1 1339.00-1340.75 1812.50-1814.00 693.10-695.40
PIVOT 1345.00 1825.00 695.00
Support 1 1332.00-1330.25 1799.00-1797.00 686.30-685.20
Support 2 1326.75-1325.00 1792.00-1790.00 681.40-679.80
Support 3 1321.00-1319.50 1780.00-1788.00 674.40-673.20
Support 4 1315.00-1314.50 1767.00-1765.00 669.50-667.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1423.86 1984.22 752.52
1415.89 1967.53 746.48
1403.00 1940.50 736.70
1390.11 1913.47 726.92
1382.14 1896.78 720.88
1369.25 1869.75 711.10
1356.36 1842.72 701.32
1352.38 1834.38 698.30
1348.39 1826.03 695.28
1335.50 1799.00 685.50
1322.61 1771.97 675.72
1314.64 1755.28 669.68
1301.75 1728.25 659.90
1288.86 1701.22 650.12
1280.89 1684.53 644.08



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1352.25 1838.00 699.70
AS DAILY LOW 1315.00 1767.25 674.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 15-April-2008

Wachovia Bank announces a Q1 loss and Retail Sales up a modest 0.2% resulted in a quite session that closed slightly lower.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Core PPI
8:30 AM NY Empire State Index
9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The equity indexes traded on a tight range during today’s session. The indexes opened lower and showed difficulties to trade above Friday’s settlements. The E-mini SP opened at 1333.50 well above the Globex lows and bounced to 1335.50. After failing, the index moved lower and tested support just bellows the 1330.00 area. Another attempt to break to new highs posted a double top at 1334.75 where sellers stepped in and pushed the index down to new intraday lows at 1327.50. The failure to break bellow the 1325.75 Globex low resulted in a short covering rally driving the E-mini SP backup and reaching its daily high at 1337.25. The lack of volume and participants made difficult for the markets to break higher and the move got reversed. The E-mini SP tested 1330.00 bounced back up to 1333.00 and pushed lower to new lows at 1327.25. The double bottom invited buyers and the index moved back up to 1331.50. for the day the e-mini SP lost 4.25 points and settled at 1331.25, the E-mini Nasdaq that showed weakness during all the session ended at 1796.25, minus 10 points and the E-mini Russell finished the day at 686.80, losing 1.60 points for the day. The Dow cash lost 23 points for the day, but managed to close at 12302.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” This week is full of economic data starting today before the opening with the Retail Sales numbers and ending next Friday with the April option expiration, so I assume that independent of the impact that the economic data will have during the trading session, the markets will try to hold. Today’s session should continue to see selling pressure, so going short after the rally attempts stall may be the best play, look for an early rally to end after the first 30-40 minutes and go short at the first sign of weakness, but if the pullback does not exceed three points, stay with the trend as probably they will try to move higher.”

Despite the tight range seen during the session, there were a few good trading opportunities, the initial failure during the first hour, the 10 points short covering rally, and then the consequent 10 points pullback to new lows. Yesterday’s session shows a complete indecision at this moment about the short term direction for the markets. The Dow and SP could be headed for a test of the 12200 and 1320 respectively, and if those hold, this wide range seen during the last month will keep the indexes consolidating during the next weeks, but failure at those levels will open the door for a test of the yearly lows. For today’s session, the indexes showed yesterday a complete indecision to keep moving lower or try to rebound, so expect more sideways action during today and until yesterday’s lows or 1342.00 is broken on the E-mini SP. With the indexes at a critical juncture, yesterday’s lows will have to hold or the downside move will get momentum. Yesterday’s struggle to move down and the low volumes seen during the trading session, open the door for a rebound during today’s session, but that will be possible only if the market holds after the first hour of trading once the PPI numbers are already released.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance above yesterday’s settlements at 1335.00-1337.00 on the E-mini SP, 1808.00-1809.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 689.90-690.70 on the E-mini Russell. The E-mini Nasdaq will have to collaborate if the markets are ready for a recovery rally and break higher. If that happens and those levels are exceeded, then the indexes should go for the 1341.00-1342.50 on the E-mini SP, 1815.00-1816.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq levels and 694.00-695.20 on the E-mini Russell. Those levels will be a problem, and a good short with tight stops can be placed there. If the indexes are strong, then a second attempt could slice those areas and move higher to 1347.00-1348.50 on the E-mini SP, 1822.00-1824.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 699.30-700.50 on the E-mini Russell will be seen before the rally runs out of steam. If those are exceeded, the shorts running to cover should push the E-mini SP up to the 1350.00’s.

There is early support at 1330.00-1328.75 the E-mini SP, 1794.00-1792.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 684.70-683.70on the E-mini Russell, those must hold to maintain the chances of recovery, if those fail, the downside could accelerate and win momentum reaching 1325.50-1324.00 on the E-mini SP, 1787.00-1785.00on the E-mini Nasdaq and 680.60-678.90 on the E-mini Russell. A double bottom there could signal a good short covering rally, but if the indexes don’t react strong from those lows, then the way is downwards, if that happens the only strong support before a panic move will be at 1320.00-1318.00on the E-mini SP, 1780.00-1778.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 676.10-674.50on the E-mini Russell. Those are KEY SUPPPORT and if they get broken, much lower prices could be seen during the coming sessions. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1352.00-1354.00 1833.00-1834.50 706.00-707.70
Resistance 3 1347.00-1348.50 1822.00-1824.00 699.30-700.50
Resistance 2 1341.00-1342.50 1815.00-1816.00 694.00-695.20
Resistance 1 1335.00-1337.00 1808.00-1809.00 689.90-690.70
PIVOT 1331.50 1800.50 688.00
Support 1 1330.00-1328.75 1794.00-1792.00 684.70-683.70
Support 2 1325.50-1324.00 1787.00-1785.00 680.60-678.90
Support 3 1320.00-1318.00 1780.00-1778.00 676.10-674.50
Support 4 1314.00-1312.00 1769.00-1767.00 670.00-669.10


FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1355.86 1850.41 712.48
1353.14 1845.10 709.82
1348.75 1836.50 705.50
1344.36 1827.91 701.18
1341.64 1822.60 698.52
1337.25 1814.00 694.20
1332.86 1805.41 689.88
1331.50 1802.75 688.55
1330.14 1800.10 687.22
1325.75 1791.50 682.90
1321.36 1782.91 678.58
1318.64 1777.60 675.92
1314.25 1769.00 671.60
1309.86 1760.41 667.28
1307.14 1755.10 664.62



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1334.24 1805.00 690.50
AS DAILY LOW 1322.75 1782.25 679.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-April-2008
Merrill Lynch post steep loses Initial and Continuing Claims increase and the Philadelphia fed index which came out much weaker than expected resulted in a quite session.
ECONOMIC DATA
None

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS
The markets spend most of the session moderately lower but came back up into the close. The E-mini SP opened at 1362.50 and bounced to 1364.50. With the release of the economic numbers, the markets pushed down and made new intraday lows at 1359.25 on the e-mini SP. A good short covering rally moved up the index to the 1368.00 area where the rally failed to gain momentum and pressed once more downwards making new marginal lows at 1358.50. Unable to gain momentum, the E-mini SP rallied back to 1366.00, pulled back a few points to 1362.00 and pushed higher reaching 1370.00, a double top resulted in a test of the 1365.00 level where buyers stepped in strongly and drove the indexes to new highs during the last half hour of the session. The E-mini SP reached 1374.50. For the day, the E-mini SP added 1.25 points and settled at 1372.25, the E-mini Nasdaq rallied 24 points after the cash markets closed, gained 4.75 points and settled at 1867.00 and the E-mini Russell lost 4 points, finishing the session at 709.90. The Dow cash recovered early loses and finished the session almost unchanged at 12620.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote:”Given yesterday’s huge rally, the indexes could see during today’s session an early pullback or a consolidation near the highs, as usually after a trend day markets tendency is to consolidate the previous move. Although I maintain a bullish bias for the next days, I will be watching closely the 1366.00 level on the E-mini SP as sustainable trading bellow that level could trigger a pullback to 1355.00-1353.00 before the market decides its next move. So, for today’s session, if the market opens higher I will look for the first rally to fail, and enter short after the rally stalls, but the first pullback, should offer a good long entry as I expect to see two sides action with a slightly bullish bias during the day. On the other side of the coin, after the first 30-40 minutes of trading, once the release of the economic data is reflected on the markets, I will expect, if not a continuation of yesterday’s rally, at least a bounce to test yesterday’s highs. “
We came into the session looking for a consolidation day before the market decides the next move and refills the tank in an effort to sustain this rally. Today’s option expiration should increase a bit the volatility, but I don’t expect any wild move as the indexes seems to be comfortable at these levels despite the overbought conditions. I think this rally should be able to bring prices above the 1388.00 level on the E-mini SP. For today’s session the indexes should maintain a positive bias, but the first rally should fail, so be ready to sell once the initial move ends after the first half hour, but be ready to be a buyer, in particular if the market trades bellow 1360.00 and then reverses back. The fact that the indexes closed near the highs indicates higher prices into today’s session, as consolidations at the top have the tendency to be bullish.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1373.00-1375.00 on the E-mini SP, 1870.00-1872.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 712.00-713.10 on the E-mini Russell, if the markets are in good shape they should trade easily above them and reach the next levels at 1378.50-1380.25 levels on the E-mini SP, 1878.00-1880.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.50-716.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes get there, some profit taking must be seen before the market push higher to punish those who are short the 1370.00 and 1380.00 April call options, once that happens and they run to cover, the indexes may reach higher levels testing at least 1384.75-1386.00 on the E-mini SP, 1886.00-1888.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.50-721.50 on the E-mini Russell. Breaking above those areas, in a Friday, the upside momentum should accelerate.
There is initial support at 1369.25-1368.00 the E-mini SP, 1866.00-1864.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.80-707.80 on the E-mini Russell, if the indexes break down bellow those levels, be ready to be a buyer once it trades the next support areas at 1364.00-1362.00 on the E-mini SP, 1857.00-1855.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 704.50-703.80 on the E-mini Russell. If the volatility that sometimes characterize option expiration days result in an erratic session, then the indexes should go for a test of yesterday’s lows at 1358.00-1356.00 on the E-mini SP, 1849.00-1847.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.00-698.80 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that those hold. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1388.50-1390.00 1894.00-1896.00 727.80-729.50
Resistance 3 1384.75-1386.00 1886.00-1888.00 720.50-721.50
Resistance 2 1378.50-1380.25 1878.00-1880.00 715.50-716.60
Resistance 1 1373.00-1375.00 1870.00-1872.00 712.00-713.10
PIVOT 1368.50 1857.50 709.40
Support 1 1369.25-1368.00 1866.00-1864.00 708.80-707.80
Support 2 1364.00-1362.00 1857.00-1855.50 704.50-703.80
Support 3 1358.00-1356.00 1849.00-1847.00 700.00-698.80
Support 4 1352.00-1350.50 1842.00-1840.00 695.60-694.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1400.39 1930.71 733.93
1396.61 1922.04 731.17
1390.50 1908.00 726.70
1384.39 1893.96 722.23
1380.61 1885.29 719.47
1374.50 1871.25 715.00
1368.39 1857.21 710.53
1366.50 1852.88 709.15
1364.61 1848.54 707.77
1358.50 1834.50 703.30
1352.39 1820.46 698.83
1348.61 1811.79 696.07
1342.50 1797.75 691.60
1336.39 1783.71 687.13
1332.61 1775.04 684.37



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1381.50 1885.50 712.80
AS DAILY LOW 1365.50 1848.75 700.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-April-2008

US equity markets ended the week on a positive note despite high oil prices, Microsoft lower forecast and a lower than expected Michigan sentiment reading which is the lowest since 1982.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 2–May-2008


R3 1442.00
R2 1421.00
R1 1409.00
PP 1388.50
S1 1376.00
S2 1355.00
S3 1323.00


ECONOMIC DATA

None

WEEKLY RECAP

Solid gains on the US markets during the week pushed the indexes up almost by 5%. The equity indexes started the week trading slightly lower, the release of the March Retail Sales gave the markets some relief by posting an increase of .2%. The session showed selling pressure as a result of Wachovia Bank announcing Q1 loses which added concerns about the financial sector. The E-mini SP lost 4.25 points and settled at 1331.25, the E-mini Nasdaq that showed weakness during all the session ended at 1796.25, minus 10 points and the E-mini Russell finished the day at 686.80, losing 1.60 points for the day. The Dow cash lost 23 points for the day, but managed to close at 12302. Tuesday’s preopening saw the PPI numbers jumping to levels not seen for many years on a yearly basis, PPI was reported up by 1.1%, Core PPI 0.2% and NY Empire State Index higher than expected resulted in an erratic session that recovered loses into the end. After testing key support levels at 1325.00, the E-mini SP ended the session at 1336.00, 4.75 points up, the E-mini Nasdaq that recovered from much lower prices managed to close almost unchanged at 1796.75 and the E-mini Russell settled at 691.90 gaining 5.10 points. The Dow cash closed at 12362 up 60 points for the day. Wednesday, the markets opened very strong as Intel and JP Morgan came out with their earnings better than expected, CPI numbers were released showing an increase of .2% on the core rate. Despite the ugly state of the economy reported on the Fed’s Beige Book, the indexes rallied strong, in an extremely bullish session the E-mini SP added 35.00 points ending the day near the highs at 1371.00, the E-mini Nasdaq which rallied 16 points after the cash markets closed, gained 65.50 points and settled at 1862.25 and the E-mini Russell jumped 3.2%, 22 points, finishing the session at 713.90. The Dow cash showed it muscles climbing higher by 256 points finishing the day once more above the 12600 mark at 12619. All the indexes settled well above fair value. Thursday’s session was a quite one as the indexes consolidated the previous day huge move. The markets held despite that Merrill Lynch posted steep loses and Initial and Continuing Claims increased, the Philadelphia fed index came out much weaker than expected showing more signs of problems on the US economy. For the day, the E-mini SP added 1.25 points and settled at 1372.25, the E-mini Nasdaq rallied 24 points after the cash markets closed, gained 4.75 points and settled at 1867.00 and the E-mini Russell lost 4 points, finishing the session at 709.90. The Dow cash recovered early loses and finished the session almost unchanged at 12620. Friday session was a cheerfulness session as the indexes exploded to the upside ending the session with hefty gain. Google numbers did not disappoint investors and the stock rallied by 205 during the session. Citigroup announced a $5 billion loss, but that did not impede from investors to but the stock propelling the entire financial sector up. The Dow cash broke up above the important 12800 resistance level and managed to close above it. The E-mini SP added 15.75 points closing at 1388.00, the E-mini Nasdaq jumped by 36 points ending the session at 1903.00 and the E-mini Russell settled at 717.70, 7.80 points up for the day. The Dow cash settled at 12849 with a gain of 228 points. For the week all the indexes were up between 4 and 5%.




FRIDAY’S MARKETS

US indexes retreated on the early morning but managed to rally back ended the week near the best levels. The E-mini SP opened strong at 1395.50 and just after printing the 1396.50 on the intraday chart get sold pressed by the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq. The index tested the support areas just bellow 1388.50 and bounced back up to 1393.75. Failure to break above it resulted in another push lower to 1387.75 where the market tried to hold. Once that level got broken, the way down was done quickly and the index dropped to the key support areas at 1381.50-1380.00. As we wrote on Friday’s newsletter, the pullback incited buyers to step in and the index rallied back to the intraday resistance at 1388.50. After spending a couple of hours trading between 1388.50 and 1384.00 the market finally push strongly higher, the E-mini SP reached 1393.00, after pausing there, a final push took the indexes to new intraday highs. The E-mini SP printed the 1400.75 on the charts but gave back some ground into the close. For the day the E-mini SP gain 11.00 points closing day at 1397.00, the E-mini Nasdaq, after being weak during all the session managed to close almost unchanged at 1921.00 and the E-mini Russell settled at 720.20, up 6.90 points. The Dow cash continued with its advance ending the session at 12891 adding 42 points.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” All the time that the E-mini SP holds the recent lows at 1372.00-1370.00, the chances of moving higher above the 1400.00 area and possibly reach 1410.00-1416.00 during the next three days still exist. For today’s session I expect a steady opening and a first run to our 1392.50-1394.00 resistance area to be a selling opportunity, but a continuation of yesterday’s late sell off that found support around 1383.50-1381.00 should result in another rally to the highs if the markets are still in good shape.”

Well, our call couldn’t be better as the opening highs only reached a couple of points above our resistance levels and the trip to the lows was met almost exactly at our projected objective resulting in a strong rally back up to new highs. The continuation of this rally, where the indexes advance despite the bad news must be seen as a bullish sign, however caution at these levels is important as the traded volumes continue to be low. The week is full of economic developments and data, Consumer confidence, GDP, FOMC rate decision and Nonfarm payrolls promises to keep us busy on a probable volatile week.
The indexes are in a strong position and the 1380.00 area on the E-mini SP is now short term support, so all the time that it remains above that level on a close basis it should continue to move up, and if it manages to close above 1406.00, it should be able to test the 1424.00 area. Furthermore, it seems that the Dow cash has already confirm its breakout and holding the 12800 area on the next pullback has to be considered as bullish as much higher prices may be seen once it closes for two consecutive sessions above the 13000 area. Despite this, volumes are still low, but a confirmation of the breakout should result in additional volume and sidelines money moving back to the markets.
So we all this late bullishness on the US markets and the way the indexes are reacting to the “bad news”, the uptrend should be able to continue. Today’s session will be the only one during the week without any economic data, and that should give traders the chance to push lower during the early part of the session. So a higher opening look to get short once the move freezes and be ready to reverse your position later on the day. On the other side of the coin, if the markets open lower expect support to hold and get long once the selling disappears or the indexes trade back above the pivot points. Take in account that the first and second resistance areas may pull the breaks on the rally as the economic data gets released during the rest of the week.






TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1398.75-1400.75 on the E-mini SP, 1926.75-1928.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 721.60-722.80 on the E-mini Russell, a double top there, especially if the E-mini Nasdaq is not showing strength, could be a good shorting opportunity for a 7-9 points pullback on the E-mini SP, but if the markets gap up at the open above those levels, they should offer strong support, or if they get exceeded later on the day, then the indexes should be able to reach the next resistance levels at 1405.00-1406.00 on the E-mini SP, 1935.00-1937.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 725.40-726.70 on the E-mini Russell. If those are reached and the rally stops there, I will go short as they should offer strong resistance, but if the euphoria continues and the Dow cash is trading above 13000, then the next levels would be at 1409.00-1410.25 on the E-mini SP, 1942.00-1944.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 729.90-731.00 on the E-mini Russell. Breaking above them will bring the E-mini SP to my objective near 1416.00

There is support at 1391.00-1389.50 on the E-mini SP, 1914.50-1913.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 717.50-716.10 on the E-mini Russell. Those must hold as the indexes should bounce from there at least to the 1398.50 level on the E-mini SP, but if the market is ready for some profit taking after last Friday’s new highs, then a test of 1385.75-1384.75 on the E-mini SP, 1908.00-1906.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 712.50-711.70 on the E-mini Russell should invite buyers to step in. If those levels does not hold, then the important short term support at 1380.50-1379.00 on the E-mini SP, 1901.75-1899.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 709.60-708.40 on the E-mini Russell will have to hold and get bought aggressively or the chances that we saw a top will increase. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1414.00-1415.00 1950.00-1952.00 734.50-735.60
Resistance 3 1409.00-1410.25 1942.00-1944.00 729.90-731.00
Resistance 2 1405.00-1406.00 1935.00-1937.00 725.40-726.70
Resistance 1 1398.75-1400.75 1926.75-1928.50 721.60-722.80
PIVOT 1392.75 1917.75 718.10
Support 1 1391.00-1389.50 1914.50-1913.25 717.50-716.10
Support 2 1385.75-1384.75 1908.00-1906.00 712.50-711.70
Support 3 1380.50-1379.00 1901.75-1899.75 709.60-708.40
Support 4 1375.00-1373.00 1888.00-1886.00 704.70-703.10


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1433.51 1990.38 748.87
1428.74 1982.12 745.33
1421.00 1968.75 739.60
1413.26 1955.38 733.87
1408.49 1947.12 730.33
1400.75 1933.75 724.60
1393.01 1920.38 718.87
1390.63 1916.25 717.10
1388.24 1912.12 715.33
1380.50 1898.75 709.60
1372.76 1885.38 703.87
1367.99 1877.12 700.33
1360.25 1863.75 694.60
1352.51 1850.38 688.87
1347.74 1842.12 685.33



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1409.00 1944.50 729.90
AS DAILY LOW 1388.75 1910.00 714.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 6-May-2008

Stocks fall on Yahoo sell off and downgrade, and Countrywide problems continued. April’s ISM services index unexpectedly jumps to 52.


ECONOMIC DATA

None


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

On a quite low volume session markets traded lower during all the day. The E-mini SP opened with a down gap at 1411.50 and pulled back during the first minutes of the session to 1408.50. After posting a double top and just before the release of the economic data, the index bounced up to 1414.00. Once the ISM services index was released, the E-mini SP jumped to 1415.75 closing the opening gap. A double top at Friday’s settlement drove prices lower back to 1411.00. That level did not hold and the index continued to move lower to testing the opening lows sat 1408.50. Unable to hold the e-mini SP get sold and reached 1404.25. Buyers stepped in defending the lows and the index got back up to 1409.50. The rest of the session the indexes traded in a tight range with extremely low volumes and failed to make new lows for the session which kept them in a sideways pattern. For the session, the E-mini SP lost 7.50 points and settled at 1408.25, the E-mini Nasdaq which was weak during all the session ended lower by 9.75 points at 1980.50 and the E-mini Russell closed the session at 723.90, minus 3.70 points for the day. The Dow cash ended the session at 12969 with a loss of 88 points.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote: “Well, the markets have reached a short term high, that I suspect will hold for a few days. This upside move will have to get consolidated before the markets enter in a new wave, so, all the time that the indexes hold near to the highs and above my weekly first support level, we can expect a consolidation of last rally during this week with an upside bias, as Friday’s spike exhausted temporarily this last leg up and overbought conditions have to be worked out for a couple of days. I won’t favor the long side and we should take advantage of the rallies as the markets should offer two side action during today’s session, so “sell high, buy low” near resistance and support areas. Friday’s highs have the chance to be the “highs” and we can expect that the indexes will setback moderately during the next couple of days, but we can not assume that the trend has changed.”

The indexes continued with their pullback after Friday’s highs, and despite yesterday’s down move, trading was tricky after the indexes closed the gap, I think the best traders were able to do was some scalping. Yesterday’s action kept the indexes in a strong position, and if the consolidation continues to be close to the highs, we can expect higher prices ahead. But it could be that the indexes will have a stronger pullback before that. If that happens and the E-mini SP holds above the 1380.00 area with the Dow cash holding the 12800 level, then the uptrend will be intact. Keep in mind that players will be selling the rallies all the time that Friday’s highs don’t get exceeded. So the most accurate forecast that I can do, is for the indexes to continue with Friday’s pullback from the highs, and if the markets holds during the week near to the 1400.00 on the E-mini SP and 12800 on the Dow cash, then we could see a retest of the highs. For today’s session we can expect another day that keeps consolidating the last two week rally, and that means that it will be very difficult for the indexes to break higher, selling the rallies bellow my 1416.75-1418.00 resistance area should be the best play.




TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance 1411.25-1412.75 on the E-mini SP, 1386.00-1388.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.70-725.40 on the E-mini Russell, if the markets are weak, these levels should be difficult to penetrate, but in this consolidation, if the markets wants to preserve a neutral position, the next levels at 1416.75-1418.00 on the E-mini SP, 1993.00-1994.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 728.50-730.00 on the E-mini Russell should be reached. If the session is quite as yesterday, those will be sold, but if yesterday’s pullback is a one day countertrend move the indexes should advance testing the waters bellow Friday’s highs at 1424.00-1425.25 on the E-mini SP, 2001.00-2002.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.60-734.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets get there, beware of a reversal but if they trade higher, another leg up for the last rally could be underway.

There is initial support at 1405.50-1403.75 on the E-mini SP, 1977.00-1975.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 722.40-721.60on the E-mini Russell, a double bottom there will look positive and the E-mini SP could rally from there at least 8 points. If those can not hold the selling pressure, and they coincide with a break down bellow the 12850 on the Dow cash, then the next levels at 1395.50-1394.00 on the E-mini SP, 1972.00-1971.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 719.30-718.20 on the E-mini Russell will be reached. There is strong support there, in particular for the E-mini Nasdaq, if those do not hold, then the risk will increase as we could have a wide down range session carrying prices down to 1391.00-1389.00 on the E-mini SP, 1965.25-1964.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.80-713.40 on the E-mini Russell. Trading bellow those areas will confirm that a short term top has been posted. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1428.50-1430.00 2011.00-2013.00 738.60-739.50
Resistance 3 1424.00-1425.25 2001.00-2002.50 732.60-734.00
Resistance 2 1416.75-1418.00 1993.00-1994.00 728.50-730.00
Resistance 1 1411.25-1412.75 1386.00-1388.00 724.70-725.40
PIVOT 1408.75 1982.50 724.20
Support 1 1405.50-1403.75 1977.00-1975.00 722.40-721.60
Support 2 1395.50-1394.00 1972.00-1971.00 719.30-718.20
Support 3 1391.00-1389.00 1965.25-1964.00 715.80-713.40
Support 4 1384.00-1382.75 1955.00-1953.00 711.20-709.50



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1443.95 2044.27 742.09
1440.05 2037.48 740.11
1433.75 2026.50 736.90
1427.45 2015.52 733.69
1423.55 2008.73 731.71
1417.25 1997.75 728.50
1410.95 1986.77 725.29
1409.00 1983.38 724.30
1407.05 1979.98 723.31
1400.75 1969.00 720.10
1394.45 1958.02 716.89
1390.55 1951.23 714.91
1384.25 1940.25 711.70
1377.95 1929.27 708.49
1374.05 1922.48 706.51



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1412.75 1989.00 726.20
AS DAILY LOW 1396.25 1960.00 717.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 9-May-2008

Initial Claims down at 365K, Wholesale inventories down .1% and another high for crude oil resulted in a range-bound session.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Trade Balance


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

US markets consolidated their recent move managing to close positive on the cash indexes, but well bellow fair value for the futures. The E-mini SP started the session at 1397.00. After pulling back to 1394.00 the index managed to bounce and reached the 1399.75 area where sellers stepped in and pushed the markets down. The E-mini SP sold off to its daily lows reaching 1389.50. The index reacted well to the double bottom and a short covering rally moved the E-mini SP back up to a test of the highs at 1399.25. Unable to break higher, the index pulled back twice to my 1392.25 support level where good buying was seen during the session resulting in a rally to my pivot point at 1403.00. That high was rejected and the index moved back lower testing once more the 1392.00 area. Once more buyers stepped in at that level and the index rallied back to 1398.25. A double top invited sellers in, and the markets sold off into the close. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 3.25 and settled at 1392.00, the E-mini Nasdaq managed to close on positive territory at 1965.00, plus 4.50 points and the E-mini Russell closed at 713.00, losing 1.30 points. The Dow cash closed at 12866 up 52 points.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote: ”Well, the 1413.50 area on the E-mini SP was pivotal as once the index traded bellow it, never looked back. Yesterday’s sell off will have to show some follow through in order to confirm a bigger pullback or a downtrend. If we don’t see a continuation of yesterday’s downside move that breaks down bellow the 1380.00 level on the E-mini SP, the uptrend will be intact. It seems that there is room for the indexes to trade lower but I wouldn’t be surprise to see yesterday’s lows hold resulting in an “inside day” before the indexes define which way to go. With Tuesday an uptrend day, and yesterday the opposite I expect two side actions for today’s session unless the markets continue to see selling pressure. If I see additional selling during the first hour of trading, but the market holds, I will get long, but stops should be tight. Until-unless the 1380.00 area on the E-mini SP and 12700 on the Dow cash get broken, I have to consider the possibility of the markets to keep moving higher. A close bellow 1380.00 on the E-mini SP will be an indication that the index has started to trade down.”

As forecasted, the index held above Wednesday’s lows in a consolidation move of the last sell off. The indexes closed well bellow fair value, which is not a bullish indication for today’s session as the markets will be under pressure since the opening. I have mentioned that even if the markets keep falling, only closing bellow 1380.00 will create real downside momentum on the E-mini SP, however, the index has closed for two consecutive sessions bellow 1400.00, and that means weakness ahead. So for the markets to be able to maintain the uptrend intact, the 1380.00 will have to hold or longs will start to get nervous. If today, we have another wide range down day, the near term bullish scenario will be over, but another range bounded day, even with marginal new lows, will keep the index in a strong position. Yesterday’s range will have to get broken if not today, then next Monday, and all the time that the E-mini SP is bellow the 1400.00’s the probability is real, however, a successful test of that level that matches the 12700 on the Dow cash could be a good buying opportunity. For today, yesterday’s weak close could result in a down gap for the opening, if that happens don’t jump immediately to buy the indexes expecting to see it filled right at the opening, better wait for the first 40 minutes to pass and then if there is support look to get long near the key areas, but remember, failure to traded constantly above my first resistance levels and build a base for a late rally above them, will point to lower prices, in particular today, a Friday.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance 1394.50-1395.75 on the E-mini SP, 1971.50-1972.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 717.30-718.00 on the E-mini Russell, most of yesterday’s trading volume was around these levels, so for the markets to move up, a base for a rally should be built above them, if that happens and the indexes look good, a test of the next levels at 1400.50-1402.25 on the E-mini SP, 1379.00-1380.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.50-721.80 may be in the cards. If the market is able to close around these levels higher prices could be seen during the coming sessions. If today, those areas are exceeded, the next hurdles will be at 1408.50-1410.00 on the E-mini SP, 1993.00-1995.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.90-726.00 on the E-mini Russell.

Support starts just bellow yesterday’s lows at 1389.50-1388.25 on the E-mini SP, 1962.50-1960.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 716.00-714.50 on the E-mini Russell, if those can not hold, a test of the next levels at1385.50-1384.50 on the E-mini SP, 1954.00-1953.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 712.40-711.20 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. If the markets are showing weakness, then the KEY SUPPORT level on the E-mini SP at 1381.00-1380.00, 1945.00-1943.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.00-706.70 on the E-mini Russell will have to be aggressively bought or the market is in troubles. GOOD LUCK
.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1414.00-1416.00 2004.00-2006.00 731.90-733.00
Resistance 3 1408.50-1410.00 1993.00-1995.00 724.90-726.00
Resistance 2 1400.50-1402.25 1979.00-1980.00 720.50-721.80
Resistance 1 1394.50-1395.75 1971.50-1972.75 717.30-718.00
PIVOT 1394.75 1969.00 716.50
Support 1 1389.50-1388.25 1962.50-1960.50 716.00-714.50
Support 2 1385.50-1384.50 1954.00-1953.00 712.40-711.20
Support 3 1381.00-1380.00 1945.00-1943.00 708.00-706.70
Support 4 1374.00-1372.75 1931.00-1930.00 701.10-699.80



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1425.25 2026.07 733.16
1422.00 2019.93 731.34
1416.75 2010.00 728.40
1411.50 2000.07 725.46
1408.25 1993.93 723.64
1403.00 1984.00 720.70
1397.75 1974.07 717.76
1396.13 1971.00 716.85
1394.50 1967.93 715.94
1389.25 1958.00 713.00
1384.00 1948.07 710.06
1380.75 1941.93 708.24
1375.50 1932.00 705.30
1370.25 1922.07 702.36
1367.00 1915.93 700.54



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1397.50 1987.50 718.30
AS DAILY LOW 1383.75 1961.50 710.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-May-2008


NEXT NEWSLETTER WILL BE ON TUESDAY 27-May-2008

Initial Claims at 367 K, UBS raising $15 billion and a strong reversal from another intraday crude oil record price resulted in a quite trading session closing moderately higher.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

On a quite session the indexes traded sideways as we were expecting. The E-mini SP opened at 1392.50 and pushed down to test our 1390.00-1389.00 support area. After one hour of trading between the 1394.00 and 1390.00 area, and unable to make new lows, the E-mini SP rallied and posted its daily high at 1399.75, just at our resistance levels, where sellers came in and pushed the index back down to 1394.00. the E-mini SP bounced back up to 1398.00 but fail short of the highs, pulling back all the way down to the early lows at 1390.50. Once more in a back and forth action, the index visit the daily highs where a double top at 1399.50 ended the rally droving the index back down to the 1392.00 area. The E-mini SP bounced back to 1397.00, tested once more the lows and ended the day almost as the previous session. The E-mini SP settled almost unchanged at 1293.25 up .25 points, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1966.50 plus 2.00 points and the E-mini Russell added 2.00 points finishing the session at 732.00. The Dow closed up 24 points ending the session at 12625.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” It’s very unusual to see two trend days in row, and more unusual a third one, so I expect back and forth action. Today’s session will have to consolidate the last huge move, and a lower opening or early sell off that holds first or second support levels may be a good opportunity to get long, of curse with tight stops, don’t overstay in any position as the indexes should struggle at least during today’s session. I wouldn’t be surprise to see a consolidation from the last pullback, the Dow is down almost 500 points from its high, the E-mini SP 50 points, that indicates a strong downtrend, but the E-mini SP should try to move higher all the time that that index holds above 1494.00. For today’s session as I mentioned I expect two side action, and early rally that loses its steam near resistance is a good short and a sell off that holds support is a good long entry, tight stops. The next levels at 1399.00-1401.00 on the E-mini SP, 1979.25-1982.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 735.00-736.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets open bellow those levels and get there, they should offer good resistance, at least the first time.”

Well, the markets opened a bit lower and moved up to my 1399.00-1401.00 area where we were looking to get short, and as expected the index held the 1390.00-1389.00 support area. Those set ups happened twice giving traders good opportunities. The indexes showed support during yesterday’s session, and the fact that we are on the last trading day of the week before a holiday, should result in low volumes that may keep the indexes afloat. I am not feeling yet bearish on the US indexes, but I certainly believe that the recent highs will hold for a while, so waiting to see what the lows for this pullback will be will give us the clue for the coming weeks. Meanwhile on our short term universe, yesterday’s levels acted pretty good and because of the narrow ranges, they are not very different from today’s numbers, so we will keep a neutral bias looking for opportunities on both sides of the range with a slightly bearish bias. If oil prices will start a sizeable retracement, it could motivate traders to buy the indexes, but remember that any pullback on that market has been short lived. Yesterday’s consolidation, after a two days sell off is a typical behavior of the markets but when the consolidation is at the lows, normally indicates lower prices to come, if that happens the 1384.00-1380.00 area on the E-mini SP could offer a short term good buying opportunity with tight stops, as if that index break lower, then 1370.00 will be seen before buyers take a chance.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1395.00-1396.00 on the E-mini SP, 1971.00-1973.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.90-733.80 on the E-mini Russell. As yesterday, if the indexes will try to keep a neutral position or move higher, those should be easily exceeded, and then go for a test of yesterday’s highs at 1399.50-1401.00 on the E-mini SP, 1979.50-1980.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 735.10-736.90 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets break above then, then a visit to the “KEY RESISTANCE” area on the E-mini SP at 1408.00-1409.25, 1990.00-1992.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 739.90-741.40 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. Trading above them, will indicate support at higher levels and more consolidation during the next shorted holiday week.

There is support at yesterday’s lows at 1391.50-1390.50 on the E-mini SP, 1964.00-1962.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 730.20-729.30 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets break lower a false break to the next levels at 1388.00-1387.00 on the E-mini SP, 1955.50-1953.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 727.00-726.40 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. If those hold a good short covering rally could move prices higher 10 to 12 points, but if buyers don’t step in a t those levels, then the indexes should test the 1984.00-1982.50 on the E-mini SP, 1944.50-1942.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 722.10-721.00 on the E-mini Russell, trading bellow them could accelerate the downtrend. A close bellow the 1384.00-1382.50 areas on the E-mini SP will leave open the door for lower prices during the coming weeks. GOOD LUCK

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1412.00-1413.50 2003.00-2004.50 746.80-748.00
Resistance 3 1408.00-1409.25 1990.00-1992.00 739.90-741.40
Resistance 2 1399.50-1401.00 1979.50-1980.50 735.10-736.90
Resistance 1 1395.00-1396.00 1971.00-1973.00 732.90-733.80
PIVOT 1394.50 1968.50 732.00
Support 1 1391.50-1390.50 1964.00-1962.00 730.20-729.30
Support 2 1388.00-1387.00 1955.50-1953.00 727.00-726.40
Support 3 1384.00-1382.50 1944.50-1942.00 722.10-721.00
Support 4 1378.00-1377.50 1933.00-1931.00 717.40-716.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1415.12 2020.33 752.92
1412.88 2014.67 750.58
1409.25 2005.50 746.80
1405.62 1996.33 743.02
1403.38 1990.67 740.68
1399.75 1981.50 736.90
1396.12 1972.33 733.12
1395.00 1969.50 731.95
1393.88 1966.67 730.78
1390.25 1957.50 727.00
1386.62 1948.33 723.22
1384.38 1942.67 720.88
1380.75 1933.50 717.10
1377.12 1924.33 713.32
1374.88 1918.67 710.98



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1401.25 1974.00 739.40
AS DAILY LOW 1391.75 1950.00 729.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 03-June-2008

Wachovia’s and Washington Mutual’s board adjustments and S&P cutting ratings on Merrill, Lehman and Morgan resulted in a negative session for the US equities.


ECONOMIC DATA
10:00 AM Factory Orders
12:00 AM Auto Sales
12:00 AM Truck Sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

All the equity indexes ended with a big lose. A lower opening on the E-mini SP and all the other indexes failed to reach Friday’s settlements. The E-mini SP opened at 1396.00 and never got the momentum to trade higher. The index pushed down to our second support area at 1388.50. A feeble bounce, took the index back up to 1391.75 just to get sold once more as the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell pushed the E-mini SP down to 1384.00. Then, it bounced back printing a double top at 1388.00 and inviting new selling, the E-mini SP tested once more the 1384.00 area and a second double top at 1387.50 got sold pushing lower to 1377.50, the E-mini Nasdaq got as low as 1991.00. After holding the lows for almost half hour, the E-mini SP started a struggling move to the upside that got some momentum as shorts started to cover, and after trading above 1383.00, the E-mini SP reached 1387.50 but failed at the previous tops. At the end of the session the E-mini SP settled at 1385.75, losing 14.75 points for the day, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 23.00, points ending the day at 2012.25, well above the 1991.00 daily low , and the E-mini Russell closed at 741.10, down 7.60 points. The Dow cash lost 134 points closing at 12503, above the intraday lows.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”Last week I wrote that I was expecting lower prices; it is not that I am expecting a deep pullback on the indexes, but uncertainty, low volumes and strong resistance levels, does not give me the confidence the markets will continue to move higher, at least on the short term. If last week rally was not a countertrend move in a new medium term downtrend, then the E-mini SP will have to break above the 1407.00 area for this rally to continue. After Friday, the 23 of May, when the index closed at the lows and we had a holiday, the daily chart shows three days where the market rallied, and a narrow range day driving the index to close just at the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement from the March lows to the May highs, if the index will fail to continue to move up, a test of the 1370-1368.00 area is still possible even if the index is in a medium term consolidation period. Now, the E-mini Nasdaq will have to exceed the 2053.00 area or a lower high, or double top (triple top on the QQQQ) has been posted, and finally the E-mini Russell that has rallied almost 40 points during the last week is flirting with the highs and maybe ready to fail. That makes me think that if today, we have a wide down range session, the short term tops have been posted and the indexes will enter June giving back some of the May profits. I will be very careful all the time that the indexes are trading in negative territory as the recent highs will have to be exceeded or the markets remain vulnerable. If the indexes start today to trend lower then the past three days rally was only a rebound previous to much lower prices or a period of consolidation before the markets try once more to move higher.”

The markets were under pressure since the beginning of the session, and the continued selling gave us a downtrend day. It is not normal to have two trend days in a row, so some rest could be expected for today’s trading session. Yesterday’s sell off after three days with the market moving higher, but with notorious low volumes, and the technical resistance on the E-mini SP, Nasdaq and Russell, did not gave the markets a big chance to keep moving higher. The next that we can expect is a consolidation day during today’s session, where selling once the short covering rallies stall, and buying once the downside momentum disappears, is the way to go. If that happens and the indexes resume the downtrend during tomorrows session making new lows, then the most probable scenario is that the last rally was a first degree countertrend move in a market that has started once more to move down. If tomorrow we rally instead of showing some follow through the downside, then a consolidation pattern will be seen on the daily charts.In conclusion, for today’s session, both sides of the market are tradable.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1387.50-1389.00 on the E-mini SP, 2018.00-2019.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 744.00-745.50 on the E-mini Russell. That area was a wall on yesterday’s session for the E-mini SP as it was rejected three times, so for the indexes to get back into a neutral position, those will have to be exceeded, and, if that happens a test of the next levels at 1392.00-1393.50 on the E-mini SP, 2024.00-2025.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 749.20-750.10 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. If the markets will consolidate yesterday’s sell off, the short covering rally should stall around those levels, but if yesterday’s move will be resolve as a consolidation pattern, then the indexes should go for the next levels at 1398.50-1399.50 on the E-mini SP, 2036.00-2037.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 753.50-754.80 on the E-mini Russell. If the move does not get rejected at these levels, then chances are that the indexes will resume the uptrend or at least go for another test of the recent highs.

There is support at 1383.25-1381.50 on the E-mini SP, 2006.00-2004.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 739.50-738.20 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas are critical to maintain the indexes on a neutral position, if those can not hold, then a test of yesterday’s lows at 1379.00-1377.50 on the E-mini SP,2001.00-1998.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 735.50-734.00 on the E-mini Russell will be seen. If the indexes get there ands hold, I will try to get long once the E-mini SP trades back above the 1383.50, but if the market fails to rally from those levels, the downside should get additional momentum and reach 1374.00-1372.50 on the E-mini SP, 1992.00-1990.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.30-731.20 on the E-mini Russell. Breaking bellow, will point for a test of my 1364.50-1362.00 long term turning point on the E-mini SP. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1403.75-1405.00 2043.00-2045.00 757.30-758.50
Resistance 3 1398.50-1399.50 2036.00-2037.00 753.50-754.80
Resistance 2 1392.00-1393.50 2024.00-2025.50 749.20-750.10
Resistance 1 1387.50-1389.00 2018.00-2019.75 744.00-745.50
PIVOT 1388.00 2013.50 740.80
Support 1 1383.25-1381.50 2006.00-2004.75 739.50-738.20
Support 2 1379.00-1377.50 2001.00-1998.50 735.50-734.00
Support 3 1374.00-1372.50 1992.00-1990.00 732.30-731.20
Support 4 1364.50-1362.00 1985.00-1983.00 729.00-727.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1421.18 2115.36 775.70
1418.82 2104.15 771.80
1415.00 2086.00 765.50
1411.18 2067.86 759.20
1408.82 2056.65 755.30
1405.00 2038.50 749.00
1401.18 2020.36 742.70
1400.00 2014.75 740.75
1398.82 2009.15 738.80
1395.00 1991.00 732.50
1391.18 1972.86 726.20
1388.82 1961.65 722.30
1385.00 1943.50 716.00
1381.18 1925.36 709.70
1378.82 1914.15 705.80



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1393.25 2025.00 745.00
AS DAILY LOW 1369.75 1977.50 728.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 09-June-2008

Oil spike to $139.00 per barrel, Nonfarm payrolls down by 49K and Unemployment rate that jumped to 5.5% resulted in a huge sell off for US equity indexes.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 13-June-2008

R3 1447.75
R2 1429.50
R1 1394.00
PP 1376.25
S1 1341.00
S2 1323.75
S3 1289.25


ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Pending Home Sales

WEEKLY RECAP

US equity indexes ended the week lower after posting during Friday’s session a key reversal from their Thursday’s higher close. In one of the most volatile weeks during the past months, equity indexes, dollar, US bonds and crude oil posted wild swings. Markets traded lower during last Monday’s session regardless of better than expected Construction Spending and ISM Index data. Wachovia and Washington Mutual board adjustments and S&P cutting ratings on Merrill, Lehman and Morgan resulted in a negative session for the US equities. The session ended substantially lower as the E-mini SP settled at 1385.75,losing 14.75 points for the day, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 23.00, points ending the day at 2012.25, , and the E-mini Russell closed at 741.10, down 7.60 points. The Dow cash lost 134 points closing at 12503. Tuesday’s session saw the markets under additional pressure as the indexes. A positive opening got reversed despite lower commodities prices and Factory Orders for April coming out better than expected with a 1.1% increase from the prior month. Bernanke’s speech, hinting the end of the rate cuts was not enough against rumors that Lehman Brothers will have to raise capital to help offset a probably loss. Auto and Truck Sales for May showed important decreases on sales for all the automotive firms. By the en of the day, the E-mini SP gave back 7.25 points closing the session at 1378.25 after a successful test of the 1370.00-1368.50 support area, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 12.75 points finishing the day at 1998.50, and the E-mini Russell which continues to show strength settled at 739.10, down 1.90 points for the day. The Dow cash closed lower at 12402 losing another 100 points during the session. Wednesday’s ADP Employment data forecasting an increase of 40K jobs in the private sector, ISM Services Index that came out as expected, continued concerns about the financial sector and a sell off on the Crude Oil kept the markets in positive territory during most of the session ending the day with mixed results for the markets. A notorious divergence between the SP’s and the E-mini Nasdaq gave traders a tricky and risky session, the E-mini SP settled at 1377.50, minus 1 point, the E-mini Nasdaq at 2019.50, up 21.25 points and the E-mini Russell at 743.10, up 3.80 points for the session. The Dow cash lost 12 points and settled at 12390 after a late reversal of more than 100 points from its daily high. Thursday’s weekly Initial Claims which showed a decrease from the previous week, S&P cuts of AMBAC and MBIA ratings and Wal-Mart sales increase of 3.9%, resulted in a strong rally despite a $6 dollars higher comeback in Crude Oil prices. Markets were able to hold the gains and closed near the daily highs wit the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell closing at new highs for the last months, the E-mini SP advanced 25.75 points ending the session at 1405.25, the E-mini Nasdaq settled at 2056.25, plus 35.50 points, and the E-mini Russell at 764.30 with a 21.40 points gain. The Dow cash advanced 213 pints and closed at 12604. While Friday’s Globex session indicated the continuation of the previous session rally, markets were shocked by the Unemployment Rate jump from 5.1 to 5.5% and a huge rally on the Crude oil prices which soared up to historical new highs near the $140.00 per barrel. The session was a bloodbath as the indexes reversed the previous session’s entire strong rally and broke down bellow important technical support areas. The early attempt on the E-mini SP to hold near the 1400.00’s failed as the session showed a strong downtrend pattern which gained force as the session advanced, not even the 1370.00 area on the E-mini SP was able to hold the selling pressure driving all the indexes to a close near the daily lows. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 46 point closing at 1359.50; the E-mini Nasdaq ended lower by 67.50 points at 1987.75 and the E-mini Russell plummet by 24.40 points and settled at 739.90. The Dow cash nose dived almost 400 points closing the session at 12209. For the week, the indexes ended around 3% down.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

US indexes plummet after the Unemployment data. After being trading higher during the Globex session with the E-mini SP reaching 1411.00, the equity indexes opened lower for the regular trading session. The E-mini SP opened at 1394.00 and the sell off started. Nervous investors pushed the indexes lower intensifying the pressure as Crude Oil prices started to climb. The E-mini SP reached 1390.00 where the selling paused for a few minutes. Unable to hold at those levels, the E-mini SP dropped to the next support area testing the 1381.50 level. As no buying came in and with continued pressure from the shorts, the E-mini SP reached 1375.50. A feeble bounce to 1381.00 where we warmed our subscribers to continue to work from the short side was met with additional selling as the index pushed down to new lows. The E-mini SP made a new marginal new low at 1374.50, bounced back once more to 1380.00 and fell to 1368.50, just at our critical support area. Another short covering rally took the index back to 1375.50 where seller took advantage of the rebound and pressed the indexes strongly down during the last hour of trading breaking with force bellow the recent lows and KEY SUPPORT areas, including our medium term 1364.00-1362.00 area. The indexes ended the session almost at the daily lows with the E-mini SP closing at 1359.50 after losing 46.00 points, the E-mini Nasdaq which recently showed strength settled at 1987.00 and the E-mini Russell which has not break technical support lost 24.40 points ending the day at 739.90. The Dow cash plummet almost 400 points closing the day at 12209.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last week I wrote:” If last week rally was not a countertrend move in a new medium term downtrend, then the E-mini SP will have to break above the 1407.00 area for this rally to continue. After Friday, the 23 of May, when the index closed at the lows and we had a holiday, the daily chart shows three days where the market rallied, and a narrow range day driving the index to close just at the 78.6 Fibonacci retracement from the March lows to the May highs, if the index will fail to continue to move up, a test of the 1370-1368.00 area is still possible even if the index is in a medium term consolidation period. That makes me think that if today, we have a wide down range session, the short term tops have been posted and the indexes will enter June giving back some of the May profits. I will be very careful all the time that the indexes are trading in negative territory as the recent highs will have to be exceeded or the markets remain vulnerable. If last week rally is not a countertrend move, the indexes, starting by the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell, will have to break to new highs, and that possibly will help the SP and Dow to test their recent highs; but if the indexes start to trend lower then the past rally was only a rebound previous to much lower prices or a period of consolidation before the markets try once more to move higher. ”Last Friday I wrote:” It will be very bad for the markets if yesterday's huge rally which closes at the high, and that sometimes indicate some king of exhaustion, will get reversed as it has happen many times during the last few months where there is not follow through to the move during the next day.”

Friday’s high was called as a top if the last move was only a countertrend rally, and obviously, now has draw a line in the sand for any further advance. Thursday’s rally stopped out many of the short players and turn them to the long side, and Friday’s action did the opposite leaving many trapped longs as nobody expected the huge move. The way markets fell last Friday, breaking key support levels point to lower prices, but it could be that the extension of Friday’s range where the weekly highs and lows were printed on the daily chart will bring a consolidation session if not today, tomorrow. The indexes has not shown any follow through on any of the days where a huge advance or decline has happened, so the surprisingly wide down range day seen on Friday which gain additional momentum from the record oil prices will have to continue at least to 1346.00 if the trend is down and Friday’s downtrend will continue. Usually wide range days show a continuation for the upcoming sessions, and despite the fact that the move was produced by news and not by technical behavior, it was so powerful that the damage on the daily charts is extended. The weekly divergence between the E-mini Nasdaq and the lagging SP seems that have been resolved.

So for today’s session, the best trading opportunities should come from shorting the rallies unless-until, the second resistance areas get exceeded and hold on a pullback. Don’t expect low risk trades until the markets show stability, and of curse, don’t overstay any long position as rebounds should not exceed 5 points.

TODAY’S SESSION

We have first resistance areas at 1364.75-1366.00 on the E-mini SP, 1995.00-1996.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 742.40-744.00 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes will be able to break above them, we could see a consolidating session with a narrow range before the next big move as the indexes will try to get over the key areas at 1368.75-1371.00 on the E-mini SP, 2002.75-2004.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 747.40-749.20 on the E-mini Russell, I will see a reaction rally to those levels as a gift to enter short with tight stops, but if the indexes break above them, a pop to the next levels at 1975.00-1976.00 on the E-mini SP, 2010.00-2012.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 753.30-754.50 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. I would not try to pick a bottom as a position, if I get long it will be only for a scalping trade or for a 3-4 points move.


There is support bellow Friday’s lows at 1355.00-1353.50 on the E-mini SP, 1981.00-1979.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 737.40-736.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets get there and don’t rally back immediately, I will avoid any long entry, I prefer to be a spectator if I am not so wise to get short at an appropriated price. Trading bellow those areas will accelerate the downtrend and the indexes should be able to reach their next support areas at 1349.25-1348.00 on the E-mini SP, 1973.25-1972.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.20-730.80. these levels on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell are the KEY SUPPORT areas, and all the time that they hold, those indexes have the chance to recover or at least maintain a neutral position. But if they break lower joining the E-mini SP and Dow, then the next support levels are at 1344.00-1342.25 on the E-mini SP, 1964.00-1962.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 726.30-724.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the e-mini SP won’t hold this area, just beneath my 1346.00 projected low for this move, then the 1318.00 level will be visited during the week. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1380.25-1382.50 2025.75-2028.00 758.00-759.60
Resistance 3 1374.00-1376.00 2010.00-2012.00 753.30-754.50
Resistance 2 1368.75-1371.00 2002.75-2004.25 747.40-749.20
Resistance 1 1364.75-1366.00 1995.00-1996.25 742.40-744.00
PIVOT 1376.00 2012.75 748.80
Support 1 1355.00-1353.50 1981.00-1979.50 737.40-736.60
Support 2 1349.25-1348.00 1973.25-1972.00 732.20-730.80
Support 3 1344.00-1342.25 1964.00-1962.50 726.30-724.60
Support 4 1336.00-1335.00 1954.00-1952.00 721.60-720.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1495.95 2185.31 810.91
1483.56 2167.44 804.49
1463.50 2138.50 794.10
1443.45 2109.56 783.71
1431.06 2091.69 777.29
1411.00 2062.75 766.90
1390.95 2033.81 756.51
1384.75 2024.88 753.30
1378.56 2015.94 750.09
1358.50 1987.00 739.70
1338.45 1958.06 729.31
1326.06 1940.19 722.89
1306.00 1911.25 712.50
1285.95 1882.31 702.11
1273.56 1864.44 695.69



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1385.25 2025.75 753.40
AS DAILY LOW 1332.75 1950.00 726.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-June-2008

TODAY IS THE ROLLOVER FROM THE JUNE TO THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACTS
EMINI SP= ESU8 EMINI NASDAQ=NQU8 EMINI RUSSELL=ER2U8
ALL OUR CALCULATIONS ARE BASED ON THE SEPTEMBER CONTRACTS​

Oil prices up 4%, downgrades on the financial sectors and the Fed’s Beige Book signaling weakness in the US economy resulted in another down day for all the equity indexes.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Stocks ended lower in another ugly session. After trading higher during the Globex session, near our 1362.00-1364.00 levels, the E-mini SP opened at 1355.75 just to get sold strong during the first 45 minutes of the trading session. The index reached 1341.00 only one hour after the opening from where it bounced back to 1345.00. After pulling back twice and printing a double bottom at 1340.50 and despite the $5 spike on crude oil prices, the E-mini SP rallied all the way to 1348.25 but the extreme weakness on the markets pressed the indexes once more to the downside. The E-mini SP reached once more 1340.50 where a short covering rally pushed the index back up to 1346.75. Unable to gain momentum, the lower high was met with selling driving the index to a new marginal low for the day at 1339.25. Back and forth action between the intraday lows and 1347.00 was finally resolved to the downside with the E-mini SP printing its daily low at 1335.00. The E-mini Russell finally joined this week sell off and the techs continued to show extreme weakness. At the end of the session, the E-mini SP added another 20.50 points to the recent loses closing the session at 1335.50, the E-mini Nasdaq gave back another 46.50 points and settled at 1926.75 and the E-mini Russell lost 12.20 points and finished at 718.10. The Dow cash lost another 205 points closing at 12083.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” With the early rally coming up from levels near the 1346.00 during the Globex session and with the Dow cash consolidating near the recent lows but holding, we could see that this two days where the indexes continue to hold could be enough for this leg down, but in the mid-term selling the rallies should offer the best trading opportunities all the time that the E-mini SP keeps closing bellow the 1368.00-1374.00 levels. It will be very important for today’s session to follow the price behavior on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell, the NQ’s extreme weakness and the Russell critical 730.00 areas are the key for the next move, On the other side of the coin, consolidations near the lows as we have on the Dow cash, usually break to the downside, so I can feel comfortable during today’s session to be a buyer all the time that the indexes hold on positive territory, but I will avoid trying to pick a bottom if the markets are down as another wide range down session could happen. Late in the day the Fed will release its Beige Book that normally result in a strong move, and if before the release the market will be trading in positive territory and turns negative I will go short with the break as I suspect that yesterday’s Globes lows should be reached. Trading conditions continue to be risky, so tight stops should be placed on every trade.’

The indexes posted another strong move to the downside as the E-mini Nasdaq continued with its extreme weakness and the e-mini Russell finally gave back its “bullish” campaign and joined the other indexes. I was fooled and completely wrong on my late intraday updates expecting a strong rebound on the E-mini Nasdaq which has already fall more than 100 points during the last few days, instead the index kept selling into the end of the session. Yesterday’s settlements near the lows may already exhaust this leg down, and I presume that a rebound is just around the corner. That rebound should be at least 26 points on the E-mini SP, and that should bring the index back up to the 1362.00-1364.00 area in a countertrend move that can last from 1-4 days. Traders have to take into account that any rally that does not exceed the 1373.50 area, with two consecutive closes above that level will keep the indexes in the same vulnerable position that they are today and that should bring the markets to test the January and march lows. The markets MUST rally today or the strength of the downtrend its higher than I presume and a completely melt down move is underway.

For today’s session I want to be a buyer all the time that yesterday’s lows hold, but if the indexes trade lower I will tight my hands so I don’t try to pick a bottom as late yesterday, that means that if the stock markets are trading in positive territory I will look where to buy, and if the markets are down, I will join the trend.

TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1343.50-1345.50 on the E-mini SP, 1943.00-1945.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.90-722.30 on the E-mini Russell. If the expected rebound comes true, those levels should get exceeded not later than one hour after the session starts, and should be able to reach the next levels at 1349.00-1350.00 on the E-mini SP, 1952.00-1954.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 726.60-728.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the rally is short lived, the rally should end there, but I suspect that the short covering rally should be able to break higher and reach 1354.75-1356.50 on the E-mini SP, 1965.00-1966.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 733.30-734.50. Trading above those levels could bring the E-mini SP to our projected 1360.00-1361.75 area before the index get back in troubles.

There is support just at yesterday’s lows at 1336.00-1334.25 on the E-mini SP, 1930.00-1928.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.10-713.80 on the E-mini Russell. Those MUST hold or another wide range down day could be on the cards. If those areas get broken look for additional support at 1330.00-1328.00 on the E-mini SP, 1920.00-1918.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 710.30-709.40 on the E-mini Russell. That area is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the March lows and the May highs, if buyers don’t step there running to bid the markets, then the next levels at 1324.75-1323.50 on the E-mini SP,1912.00-1910.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 706.80-705.50 on the E-mini Russell could be seen before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1360.00-1361.75 1972.00-1974.00 738.80-740.20
Resistance 3 1354.75-1356.50 1965.00-1966.50 733.30-734.50
Resistance 2 1349.00-1350.00 1952.00-1954.00 726.60-728.40
Resistance 1 1343.50-1345.50 1943.00-1945.00 720.90-722.30
PIVOT 1346.75 1954.00 723.20
Support 1 1336.00-1334.25 1930.00-1928.00 715.10-713.80
Support 2 1330.00-1328.00 1920.00-1918.00 710.30-709.40
Support 3 1324.75-1323.50 1912.00-1910.00 706.80-705.50
Support 4 1320.00-1318.50 1904.00-1902.00 702.10-701.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1410.55 2088.12 758.84
1403.95 2074.13 755.16
1393.25 2051.50 749.20
1382.55 2028.87 743.24
1375.95 2014.88 739.56
1365.25 1992.25 733.60
1354.55 1969.62 727.64
1351.25 1962.63 725.80
1347.95 1955.63 723.96
1337.25 1933.00 718.00
1326.55 1910.37 712.04
1319.95 1896.38 708.36
1309.25 1873.75 702.40
1298.55 1851.12 696.44
1291.95 1837.13 692.76



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1351.50 1964.00 725.80
AS DAILY LOW 1323.75 1904.75 710.20​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[Dow Predator]

How to become a Trader
You only need to master one trading setup to be a consistently profitable trader.

Screen time will allow you to master one setup.

After you have mastered one setup "own it " you can add another setup.

This can be an ongoing process developing your own style.

The best setup to begin with is the one that you see and understand easiest. If you are forcing yourself to learn a setup because you believe another person is successful using it you may be taking the longer route to profitability.
We are all different . Our brains and personalities will gravitate to different setups. This is also true of exit techniques.
Most traders I hear from lengthen their road to profitability by trying to apply too many concepts before owning the first one.
They have studied a myriad of techniques but have yet to master any. This allows them to talk about trading but unable to consistently trade profitably.
The first decision to make is; do you desire to be a counter trend trader? or a with the trend trader? Eventually, you can be both.
At the beginning, or a new beginning perhaps, you will do best choosing to master a setup and follow the trend.
If you have been at this game for awhile and are not yet consistently profitable you know what I am saying is correct.


This site contains trading techniques and setups with the intent that it will aid you in creating "your" trading style.
My personal trading style is a combination of various styles and setups. I trust this website will be an exercise in my personal understanding of my own style allowing all to benefit.


PICK ONE, MASTER IT, BE CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE

I got this from Forex Trading System - Learn How to trade , CFDs, Forex, Shares - Home

its a good site to learn how a pro trades, all free..

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 19-June-2008
FedEx lower than expected earnings and guidance and Morgan Stanley meting lower expectations kept the markets under strong pressure during all the session.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

US markets extend their loses. In another weak session, the markets opened lower with the E-mini SP starting the session at 1344.75. The initial movement was to the upside, the index reached 1348.25 where sellers stepped in pressing the indexes down. The E-mini SP reached 1342.00, bounced back up to 1345.00 and got sell off reaching 1336.50. The low was reversed and the index managed to come back. Once it traded above the 1342.00 area, some short covering pushed the index to 1348.00. The double top was met with strong selling pressure and the E-mini SP was forced down all the way to a new low at 1335.00. Another rebound from the lows took the markets up with the E-mini SP reaching 1341.25 failing at our updated 1341.50 resistance area. As sellers continued to press down, the index printed new intraday lows at 1334.50, managed to bounce back once more to the key 1346.50 just to get sold once more into the close. At the end of the session, the E-mini SP ended 1338.75, losing 14.75 points, the E-mini Nasdaq lost another 24.75 points closing the day at 1961.50 and the E-mini Russell finished at 731.40 with loss of 6.30 points. The Dow cash which managed to come back from a false break bellow the 12000 area, lost 131 pints finishing the session at 12029.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The way the Dow cash was rejected from the 12300 area and the weakness on the E-mini SP are signs of a top. However the continues divergences between these two markets and the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell, keep traders confuse about the next decent move. The E-mini SP has bounced up from a double bottom around the 1333.00 area, and has managed to close for three consecutive sessions between the 50% to the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement from the March-May range without making a clear breakout. Despite my pint of view where the current rally should be a 1-4 days countertrend move, and probably has been completed, I can not see a strong reason to short the markets all the time that the E-mini SP continues to hold above the 1346.50 area which is the 50% Fibonacci on the last three month range, and until the clear divergence with the other two indexes is not resolved. If the countertrend move that took prices up from the 1333.00 level to yesterday’s 1372.00 Globex highs, printing a double top with the June 9th high has been completed, that high should remain intact and if not today, tomorrow, the E-mini SP should be trading bellow the 1346.50 area. I will avoid ANY LONG IF THE INDEX TRADES BELLOW 1346.50. “

There is not too much to say about yesterday’s session, regardless of the obvious weakness on the markets, the indexes offered opportunities on both sides of the range, once the opening highs were established and the E-mini SP held above last week lows around 1334.50, “buying the low and selling the highs” was possible during yesterday’s session. I personally found myself long a few times without overstaying in my positions which gave me the opportunity to make some profits.
The E-mini SP has broken bellow the key support areas, the 1364.00-1362.00 levels, the 1346.50 which was clearly sold yesterday is maybe too much pressure for the markets that continue to hold above last week lows and maintain a range between the 1333.00-1372.00 level. As we are on an expiration week, and the major indexes respected support during yesterday’s session, we could be ready for a rebound, in particular on the Dow cash, but I don’t discard the chances for some additional early weakness as the selling volume during yesterday’s session was higher than in the past days. So I don’t see too much selling pressure for today’s session as the indexes may be ready for at least a one day countertrend move, and that place me on a position where I will be buying against the first hour lows with tight stops. I will try to get long the Dow futures if I see the Dow cash bouncing back from a break bellow the 12000 area, but obviously I will tight my stops as I don’t want to be wrong and see a day where the put sellers get knocked out. We have to take into account that the E-mini SP could go for a test of the 1331.00-1328.00 area before a one day rebound is seen. Take into account that the index is trending down and that a fast move that takes the index back to the March lows is a strong possibility, so my expected rebound, if it happens should be seen only as a rest in a market that could see a capitulation move in the upcoming days.

TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1342.50-1344.50 on the E-mini SP, 1967.00-1969.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.60-733.90on the E-mini Russell. An early pop to those levels could offer a great short entry, but if the indexes break higher, then a test of1347.25-1348.75 on the E-mini SP, 1975.00-1976.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 736.40-738.10 on the E-mini Russell must be al that the markets can rally if the trend is down. If the indexes break higher some short covering could drive prices up to the next levels at 1351.25-1353.00 on the E-mini SP and 1982.00-1983.50, 741.40-742.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell respectively.

There is support at 1336.75-1335.00 on the E-mini SP, 1958.50-1957.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 730.20-728.90 on the E-mini Russell. I don’t see the markets holding those levels on the early going, and actually I would prefer that the next areas at 1332.50-1330.25 on the E-mini SP, 1951.00-1949.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.90-723.90 get tested during the first hour of trading and try to establish a low there for a long entry. But if those levels do not hold, then a break to 1327.50-1326.50 on the e-mini SP, 1943.00-1941.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 719.10-718.20 on the e-mini Russell could be seen before the market is able to bounce a bit. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1356.00-1357.50 1990.00-1992.00 745.50-746.80
Resistance 3 1351.25-1353.00 1982.00-1983.50 741.40-742.50
Resistance 2 1347.25-1348.75 1975.00-1976.25 736.40-738.10
Resistance 1 1342.50-1344.50 1967.00-1969.00 732.60-733.90
PIVOT 1343.00 1968.00 731.90
Support 1 1336.75-1335.00 1958.50-1957.00 730.20-728.90
Support 2 1332.50-1330.25 1951.00-1949.00 724.90-723.90
Support 3 1327.50-1326.50 1943.00-1941.00 719.10-718.20
Support 4 1323.75-1322.25 1932.00-1930.50 714.30-713.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1389.48 2050.02 761.00
1384.52 2041.23 757.80
1376.50 2027.00 752.60
1368.48 2012.77 747.40
1363.52 2003.98 744.20
1355.50 1989.75 739.00
1347.48 1975.52 733.80
1345.00 1971.13 732.20
1342.52 1966.73 730.60
1334.50 1952.50 725.40
1326.48 1938.27 720.20
1321.52 1929.48 717.00
1313.50 1915.25 711.80
1305.48 1901.02 706.60
1300.52 1892.23 703.40



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1347.00 1975.50 735.20
AS DAILY LOW 1323.00 1938.25 721.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 23-June-2008

Big loses for the US markets as AMBAC and MBIA get downgraded. New concerns about the Financials and Bank stocks resulted in another sharp drop for all the equity indexes.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 27-June-2008

R3 1448.00
R2 1392.00
R1 1355.50
PP 1335.50
S1 1313.75
S2 1298.75
S3 1278.50


ECONOMIC DATA

None

WEEKLY RECAP

Deep loses for the US markets after a volatile week. US equity indexes started the week under pressure after the NY Empire State Index showed a bigger contraction than expected on the economic activity. Additional, GE downgrade kept the Dow cash lower during all the session, however the indexes managed to come back and the markets closed mixed for the day. For the day, the E-mini SP settled at 1360.00, almost unchanged, the E-mini Nasdaq added 15.75 points ending the session at 1990.50 and the E-mini Russell ended the session at 738.70 with a gain of 4.70 points. The Dow cash lost 38 points closing at 12269. The expected release of the may CPI and Core CPI numbers that came out higher than expected, the Housing Starts and Building Permits data that showed continuing weakness in the sector and Goldman’s warning that US banks will have to raise more capital, where too much against the better than expected earnings from Lehman’s, JP Morgan and Goldman’s that resulted in a short lived rally that turned to be a selling opportunity as the markets closed the day loses. For the day, the E-mini SP settled at 1353.00, giving back 7.00 points, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 4.00 points ending the session at 1986.50 and the E-mini Russell closed the day almost unchanged at 737.70 with a marginal loss of .90 points. The Dow cash lost more tan 120 points closing at 12120. As futures and option expiration approached, markets turned more volatile during the Wednesday’s session, crude oil inventories lower than expected resulting in more volatility and wild swing continues in that market, and FedEx missing earnings and lower guidance for the rest of the year and for 2009, drove the indexes to levels much lowers as the markets continued to lose ground on a fast pace, for the session, the E-mini SP lost another 14.75 points closing at 1338.75, and the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell ended the day at 1961.50 and 731.40 losing 24.75 and 6.30 points respectively. The Dow cash which continue in its strong downtrend lost another 131 points 12029. Thursday’s morning before the opening, the weekly Initial Claims and the Continuing Claims showed a stable situation for the week, the same stability was seen on the Leading Indicators data; however the Philadelphia Fed index dropped for the 7th month in a row. In an erratic and choppy session the indexes managed to rebound from their previous close. The E-mini SP gained 2.75 points closing at 1341.50, the E-mini Nasdaq which rallied strong gaining, 29.25 points and settled at 1990.75 and the E-mini Russell closed at 6.00 points up at 737.40. The Dow cash advanced 34 points closing at 12063. Friday’s futures and option expiration and the Financial and Banking sectors continued and extreme pressure, as Citigroup announced that additional write downs may be seen and MBIA and AMBAC downgraded by Moody’s in a move that should have been done many months ago, resulted in big losses for all the equity indexes in a down trend day in which every bounce back attempt was met with selling. All the indexes ended the session with big loses and bellow critical support levels, the E-mini SP ended lower by 22.50 points at 1319.00, the E-mini Nasdaq plunged 49.50 points closing at 1941.50 and thee-mini Russell ended the session at 725.70. The Dow posted another lower session and settled at 11840, losing 220 points. During the week the SP500 lost more than 3% and the Dow cash 3.8%, the Nasdaq and Russell ended losing 2% and 1% respectively.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets fell sharply during all the session. With new financial concerns and option and futures expiration, the indexes opened lower for the day. The E-mini SP opened at 1334.00 and got sold since the beginning of the session. The index pushed down and tested 1328.25, bellow its recent lows. A feeble rebound failed at 1331.75 just to see the index trade lower and reaching a new intraday low at 1323.50. The e-mini SP bounced back to 1327.50, fell to 1324.00, bounced once more to 1328.25 and pushed down to print on the charts a higher low at 1324.25. Unable to make new lows, and after the 1-2-3 bottom, the index moved back up and reached 1333.00 where the short covering rally lost its momentum. The selling pressure and the weakness on the other indexes were too much, and after holding for a couple of hours between the 1326.00 and 1330.00 areas, the index finally gave up and dropped to new lows at 1318.50. Another poor bounce to the 1324.00 area was met once more by sellers and the E-mini SP continued to move down reaching 1315.25, its daily lows. The last hour of trading the index traded between the 1318.00 and 1322.00 area. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 22.50 points and settled at 1319.00, the E-mini Nasdaq plummeted 49 points ending the session at 1949.50 and the E-mini Russell finally broke down losing 11.70 points closing at 725.70. the Dow cash lost 220 points and closed at 11842.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The markets finally took a break on this downtrend posting the expected reversal from lower process during the first hour of trading, and the E-mini Nasdaq was once more the leading force for this countertrend rally, the weakest, once more the Dow. The divergences between the indexes continue to be present as an alert for those who think that the markets are out of troubles. The downtrend on the E-mini SP and Dow, is obvious, but the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell continue to hold without breaking its consolidating pattern. If you look at the E-mini SP daily chart, is obvious the support at the 1333.00-1331.00 area, but is also probable that the pattern will be resolved with another wave of selling, one that could take the index to the 1310.00-1300.00 area, and only from there, the index will be able to start a multi week rally if a higher low is in place and the index is hot headed for a test of the March lows.
I will keep a close eye on the E-mini Nasdaq that regardless of its divergence with the E-mini SP usually show us the market direction, also, I will closely follow the E-mini Russell which has to maintain its price above the 730.00 area. “Last week I wrote:” Going back to the E-mini SP, the index will have to deal with the 1362.00-1364.00 area in order to continue up, and the, only breaking above the 1371.00 will place the index in a neutral position, all the time that the index does not close twice above that level, this rally should be considered only a 1-4 days countertrend move and be resolved later on the week with the resume of the downtrend.”


The indexes have already broke bellow their key support levels after last week failure to get back above the 1371.00 area on the E-mini SP and there is not reason to assume that lower prices won’t be seen during the coming sessions. However the oversold conditions in the markets, in particular on the Dow cash, that already fell almost 1300 points from its last highs and the June option expiration that is already behind us, could result in a 1-3 countertrend rally in all the indexes. That first degree countertrend should take the E-mini SP to the 1331.00-1333.00 area and maybe to the 1342.00-1346.00, but moving up there, could offer a great shorting opportunity as the index should test at least the 1296.00 level during the following days. If that will be the low from where a sustainable rally starts, will have to happen with a rebound on the Financial and Bank sectors, as all the time that those are on a free fall, nothing good is going to happen in the markets. Assuming that I am correct and the markets bounce today and tomorrow, before the next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and rate decision, the Dow cash should be able to get near the 12050 area, and from there the expected test of the January and March lows should be seen before the indexes start a multi week countertrend rally in this bear market.

For today’s session, staying with the trend will be the key, buying all the time that the indexes are trading in positive territory is the way to go. Take into account that an opening gap to the upside may not be filled during today’s session, but if it does get filled, it will be a good buying opportunity as the E-mini SP should go for our 1331.00-1332.50 resistance area. It is obvious that the E-mini Nasdaq is leading the SP’s, and is also obvious that the weakness on the Dow cash is an obstacle for the SP’s to move higher, so, if those two indexes are trading higher they could result in this expected bounce for the E-mini SP.





TODAY’S SESSION
We have initial resistance at 1321.00-1323.25 on the E-mini SP, 1947.00-1945.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 729.40-731.20 on the E-mini Russell. Those should get easily exceeded if the indexes are ready for a bounce, but watch closely the E-mini Russell as failure to trade back above the 730.00 area won’t be a good signal. However, if all the indexes rally as I am expecting, a test of the next levels at 1326.00-1327.50 on the E-mini SP, 1953.00-1954.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 736.00-737.80 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. If the indexes get there and the rally stalls, a pullback to the 1323.00-1321.00 level on the E-mini SP will have to hold or the 1-2 days countertrend move that I am expecting won’t last more than a few hours. If the indexes break higher, then the logical target for today’s session will be a test of the 1331.00-1332.50 levels on the E-mini SP, 1959.50-1961.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 740.10-741.20 on the E-mini Russell. Only braking above those areas will trigger some short covering.


There is support just at Friday’s lows at 1316.00-1314.25 on the E-mini SP, 1935.50-1934.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 722.00-720.20 on the E-mini Russell. Those must hold, and print a double bottom on the SP’s to give the index a chance to get back to the 1331.-1332.50 resistance area, if you are not long there and the markets do reverse from an early test of the Friday’s lows, get long as soon as the indexes are trading back on positive territory. If the markets can not hold those levels, then a quick drop should bring the indexes down to 1310.25-1308.50 on the E-mini SP, 1929.00-1927.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 718.50-716.60 on the E-mini Russell. That should be enough to bring longs back to the markets and a strong reversal could start from those areas, but if the markets can not rally from there, then the downtrend is stronger than I suspect and the indexes are in a capitulation move that should reach during today’s session 1303.00-1301.75 on the E-mini SP, 1923.00-1921.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 714.00-712.80 on the E-mini Russell. Breaking bellow those levels will accelerate a test of the 1276.00 area on the E-mini SP before the longs are completely wiped out. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1335.75-1337.00 1968.00-1970.00 747.50-748.70
Resistance 3 1331.00-1332.50 1959.50-1961.00 740.10-741.20
Resistance 2 1326.00-1327.50 1953.00-1954.75 736.20-737.80
Resistance 1 1321.00-1323.25 1947.00-1945.50 729.40-731.20
PIVOT 1326.00 1954.50 727.50
Support 1 1316.00-1314.25 1935.50-1934.00 722.00-720.20
Support 2 1310.25-1308.50 1929.00-1927.50 718.50-716.60
Support 3 1303.00-1301.75 1923.00-1921.25 714.00-712.80
Support 4 1297.75-1296.50 1914.00-1912.75 707.50-706.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1389.21 2101.60 770.76
1382.54 2085.90 766.04
1371.75 2060.50 758.40
1360.96 2035.10 750.76
1354.29 2019.40 746.04
1343.50 1994.00 738.40
1332.71 1968.60 730.76
1329.38 1960.75 728.40
1326.04 1952.90 726.04
1315.25 1927.50 718.40
1304.46 1902.10 710.76
1297.79 1886.40 706.04
1287.00 1861.00 698.40
1276.21 1835.60 690.76
1269.54 1819.90 686.04



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1331.25 1967.75 732.10
AS DAILY LOW 1303.25 1901.25 712.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 24-June-2008

While Bank stocks continue to trade lower, markets traded in a narrow range that resulted in moderate loses for the equity indexes.


ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets traded in a narrow range that resulted in loses for the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell. The E-mini SP opened in positive territory after posting its daily highs during the Globex session. After reaching 1327.50 in the nightly session, the E-mini SP started the day at 1324.50 and pulled back immediately to 1320.50 where a modest rebound took the index up to the 1325.50 area, just bellow our resistance levels. Unable to gain momentum and pressed by the E-mini Nasdaq which continue to show weakness, the E-mini SP fell all the way to 1317.50. After holding above Friday’s low, the index rallied once more and reached the 1324.00 area in a short covering rally that was rejected driving prices down to new intraday lows at 1316.50. a feeble bounce to 1318.50 was sold and the E-mini SP printed a new marginal low at 1316.25 and in another rally attempt reached 1321.00 a double top at that level and the lack of momentum drove the index back near the lows from where a short covering rally managed to take the E-mini SP back up to 1324.00. as all the other bounces, the move was met with selling and once the index broke the 1321.00 area it traded lower in a narrow range into the close. The E-mini SP lost .75 points and settled at 1318.25, the E-mini Nasdaq lost another 23.50 points closing the day at 1918.00 and the E-mini Russell lost 8.70 points closing at 717.10. The Dow cash closed at 11842, unchanged for the day.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”The indexes have already broke bellow their key support levels after last week failure to get back above the 1371.00 area on the E-mini SP and there is not reason to assume that lower prices won’t be seen during the coming sessions. However the oversold conditions in the markets, in particular on the Dow cash, that already fell almost 1300 points from its last highs and the June option expiration that is already behind us, could result in a 1-3 countertrend rally in all the indexes. That first degree countertrend should take the E-mini SP to the 1331.00-1333.00 area and maybe to the 1342.00-1346.00, but moving up there, could offer a great shorting opportunity as the index should test at least the 1296.00 level during the following days. If that will be the low from where a sustainable rally starts, will have to happen with a rebound on the Financial and Bank sectors, as all the time that those are on a free fall, nothing good is going to happen in the markets. Assuming that I am correct and the markets bounce today and tomorrow, before the next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and rate decision, the Dow cash should be able to get near the 12050 area, and from there the expected test of the January and March lows should be seen before the indexes start a multi week countertrend rally in this bear market.”

The E-mini SP managed to test and hold our 1316.00 support area, but the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell that already broke bellow its support levels, did not gave the main indexes a chance to rebound resulting in a flat session for the SP’s and Dow. The fact that the consolidation seen during yesterday’s session has been formed near the lows is a clear indication of much lower prices in the coming days, however the markets should be able to see some short covering rally in front of tomorrow’s FED rate decision. I can not negate that the markets could be trying to form a bottom, in particular on the E-mini SP and Dow, but it is not the highest probability that a rally will start from Friday’s and yesterday’s double bottom on the E-mini SP. Instead I am looking for some move that probably today, in the same way that I thought it could be done yesterday, the E-mini SP reaches the 1330.00-1332.00 area and the Dow cash the 12000 before the next leg down is seen. However, yesterday consolidation could be also resolved with another wide range down day. It will take a break bellow the 1300.00 level on the E-mini SP that points to the March lows and post a marginal new low or a higher low near that levels to call for what can be a sustainable rally, and my time window says that it is too early for that.

For today’s session, we’ll get the Consumer Confidence reading for June, if the markets can hold yesterday’s lows I expect another rally attempt in front of tomorrows FOMC committee meeting, but for that rally to be possible all the indexes will have to participate as the recent divergences between the indexes make difficult any rally to be sustainable. Once more I will have to follow the E-mini Nasdaq for direction as its recent weakness has made impossible for the E-mini SP to move higher, but if that index rally today, the markets could move a bit higher. I will avoid trying to pick a low as I have to consider that all the indexes are already in a strong down trend



TODAY’S SESSION

We have initial resistance at 1320.75-1321.50 on the E-mini SP, 1922.00-1924.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 719.80-721.10 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens if those levels do not get exceeded on all the three indexes. If the markets will rally, the move has to be seen in all the indexes, or the divergence between them will result in failed attempts, however if they move up, they should be able to reach the next levels at 1324.50-1326.00 on the E-mini SP, 1928.00-1929.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.00-725.10 on the E-mini Russell. Those levels stopped yesterday’s rebound on the E-mini SP and were strongly sold on the E-mini Russell so beware of another failure there, but if the indexes manage to break higher, then shorts should run for cover and pop the indexes up to 1330.00-1332.25 on the E-mini SP, 1935.00-1936.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 727.80-728.50 on the E-mini Russell. I don’t see the markets breaking higher, so a rally to those levels that stall should offer a great selling opportunity.


There is support at Friday’s and yesterday’s double bottom at 1317.25-1316.25 on the E-mini SP, 1914.50-1912.75 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.80-714.40 on the E-mini Russell. If those do not hold, then buyers will pull out their bids and the next support levels at 1313.75-1312.50 on the E-mini SP, 1908.00-1906.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 712.20-711.30 on the E-mini Russell may be reached. I don’t see those lows as a buying opportunity; I think only a feeble bounce could be seen from those areas. However if the indexes break lower and hold the next levels at 1310.00-1309.00 on the E-mini SP, 1899.50-1898.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.80-707.40 on the E-mini Russell, then the markets have a chance to get back to the unchanged mark.GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1334.75-1336.50 1941.00-1943.00 730.50-731.20
Resistance 3 1330.00-1332.25 1935.00-1936.50 727.80-728.50
Resistance 2 1324.50-1326.00 1928.00-1929.25 724.00-725.10
Resistance 1 1320.75-1321.50 1922.00-1924.00 719.80-721.10
PIVOT 1320.75 1929.00 721.90
Support 1 1317.25-1316.25 1914.50-1912.75 715.80-714.40
Support 2 1313.75-1312.50 1908.00-1906.50 712.20-711.30
Support 3 1310.00-1309.00 1899.50-1898.00 708.80-707.40
Support 4 1303.50-1302.00 1894.00-1893.00 703.40-701.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1346.36 2007.82 754.96
1343.64 1999.68 751.54
1339.25 1986.50 746.00
1334.86 1973.32 740.46
1332.14 1965.18 737.04
1327.75 1952.00 731.50
1323.36 1938.82 725.96
1322.00 1934.75 724.25
1320.64 1930.68 722.54
1316.25 1917.50 717.00
1311.86 1904.32 711.46
1309.14 1896.18 708.04
1304.75 1883.00 702.50
1300.36 1869.82 696.96
1297.64 1861.68 693.54



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1323.00 1935.00 724.30
AS DAILY LOW 1311.50 1900.50 709.80​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-June-2008

Consumer Confidence at 16 year low, Home prices 15.3% down resulted in a session where indexes gave back their intraday gains ahead if today’s Fed’s decision.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM durable Orders
10:00 AM New Home Sales
10:30 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Policy Statements


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets ended lower for the session as traders turn cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision. The equity indexes opened under pressure with the E-mini SP starting the session at 1314.00. A two point bounce was met with strong selling pushing the index down to 1305.25 while the E-mini Nasdaq reached 1895.00. The E-mini SP bounced back up to 1311.00 and traded in a two pint range during the next half hour of the session. After making a higher low at 1307.00 and 1895.75 respectively, the indexes moved up with strong momentum, the E-mini SP traded above our pivot point level reaching 1321.50. A minor pullback to 1318.00 triggered additional short covering driving the index all the way up to 1327.25 where the rally stalled. The E-mini SP pulled to 1321.00 where buyers and shorts running for cover propelled prices up to a new marginal intraday high at 1328.00. Failure to break to new highs forced the markets down and once the E-mini SP broke bellow the 1321.00 level, it pushed down for a test of 1313.25 just to end the session slightly above that level. At the end of the session, the E-mini SP lost 2.75 points and settled at 1315.50, the E-mini Nasdaq gave back another 6.50 points closing at 1911.50 and the E-mini Russell ended lower by 10.50 points at 706.60. The Dow cash posted another losing session paring some of the early loses ending lower by 35 points at 11807.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”The E-mini SP managed to test and hold our 1316.00 support area, but the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell that already broke bellow its support levels, did not gave the main indexes a chance to rebound resulting in a flat session for the SP’s and Dow. The fact that the consolidation seen during yesterday’s session has been formed near the lows is a clear indication of much lower prices in the coming days, however the markets should be able to see some short covering rally in front of tomorrow’s FED rate decision. I can not negate that the markets could be trying to form a bottom, in particular on the E-mini SP and Dow, but it is not the highest probability that a rally will start from Friday’s and yesterday’s double bottom on the E-mini SP. Instead I am looking for some move that probably today, in the same way that I thought it could be done yesterday, the E-mini SP reaches the 1330.00-1332.00 area and the Dow cash the 12000 before the next leg down is seen. However, yesterday consolidation could be also resolved with another wide range down day. It will take a break bellow the 1300.00 level on the E-mini SP that points to the March lows and post a marginal new low or a higher low near that levels to call for what can be a sustainable rally, and my time window says that it is too early for that.”

Despite yesterday’s late pullback, the bounce from the lows was solid, in particular for the Dow cash that is testing the yearly lows. We have to remember that the January and March lows on all the indexes was met with strong buying, but looking at the charts, the only index that has reached those lows is the Dow cash, so here the question is if all the other indexes will continue to move lower with the Dow guidance or yesterday’s low at 11725 is a triple bottom from where the markets will be able to rally. The question will be resolved soon. Despite the fact that wee could see a big bounce on all the indexes, especially after today’s Fed’s rate decision, I think the markets will head lower if not today during the coming sessions. You have to remember that many times the real direction of the markets is seen one day after the Fed’s announcement and it fireworks, so despite of what happens today after the announcement and the text gets released, keep in mind that it could be a false move.

So taking into account the solid move that we saw from yesterday’s early lows, at prices where many short sellers could be trapped, the markets should be able to rally at least for a few days, and if I am right and we will see lower prices, then next week the downtrend should resume. Remember that I have been writing about a possible rally that reaches first the 1330.00-1332.00 area on the E-mini SP and maybe it gets extended to 1346.00, if that happens, and in this move the E-mini Russell reaches back the 730.00 area it will be a great opportunity for the shorts.

There is not a clear indication of what can happen during today’s session. The early part of the session will be influenced by the Durable Orders, New Home sales and the Crude Inventories data, if those are not worst than expected we should see some short covering rally in front of the interest rate decision. Once the first 2 hours of trading finish, the market should enter in a “Mexican Siesta” period where nothing happens and everybody sleeps a couple of hours. Then 15-20 minutes before the announcement, the early move should get reversed as traders start to lighten positions. When the FOMC decision comes out, we should see three different moves during the next 40 minutes, an initial impulsive move that fails, a reversal of that move and the final trend move which is the one that we traders try to follow. So only if you have big bucks and wide stops get involve in the first two moves, but take into account that if you are lucky and you go in the right direction, be quick to take your profits. Anyway, stops must be wider than in a regular trading session.


TODAY’S SESSION
We have initial resistance at 1319.50-1321.50 on the E-mini SP, 1916.00-1918.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 710.70-711.40 on the E-mini Russell. An early short covering rally, that seems to be the most probable scenario, should be able to exceed those levels and reach the 1324.25-1325.00 on the E-mini SP, 1922.00-1924.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 714.00-715.40 on the E-mini Russell. If the rally stalls there, there is a chance of a good pullback, maybe around 10 points on the E-mini SP, but if the indexes break higher, then the next levels at levels at 1328.00-1329.50 on the e-mini SP, 1932.00-1933.25 on the NQ’s and 718.70-720.20 on the E-mini Russell may be reached. If the market gets to those highs before the Fed’s announcement I will enter short with tight stops. If the indexes break higher then additional short covering that boost the SP’s near the 1340.00’s during today’s session will be seen.

There is support at yesterday’s late lows at 1313.50-1311.50 on the E-mini SP, 1906.00-1904.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 704.10-702.90 on the E-mini Russell. Trading bellow those areas should push the markets lower to a test of yesterday’s lows once they break the 1309.00-1308.00 area on the E-mini SP and 1900.00-1898.00 and 700.80-699.20 on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell respectively. If those do not hold, yesterday’s lows around 1304.00-1302.25 on the E-mini SP, 1892.75-1891.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 696.00-695.80 on the E-mini Russell is all the support I can see before a capitulation move is underway. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1334.50-1335.50 1948.00-1950.50 724.20-725.60
Resistance 3 1328.00-1329.50 1932.00-1933.25 718.70-720.20
Resistance 2 1324.25-1325.00 1922.00-1924.00 714.00-715.40
Resistance 1 1319.50-1321.50 1916.00-1918.50 710.70-711.40
PIVOT 1316.25 1913.75 710.70
Support 1 1313.50-1311.50 1906.00-1904.00 704.10-702.90
Support 2 1309.00-1308.00 1900.00-1898.00 700.80-699.20
Support 3 1304.00-1302.25 1892.75-1891.00 696.00-695.80
Support 4 1298.00-1296.50 1880.00-1878.00 688.70-686.90


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1364.81 1999.07 741.34
1359.44 1989.68 738.16
1350.75 1974.50 733.00
1342.06 1959.32 727.84
1336.69 1949.93 724.66
1328.00 1934.75 719.50
1319.31 1919.57 714.34
1316.63 1914.88 712.75
1313.94 1910.18 711.16
1305.25 1895.00 706.00
1296.56 1879.82 700.84
1291.19 1870.43 697.66
1282.50 1855.25 692.50
1273.81 1840.07 687.34
1268.44 1830.68 684.16



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1321.75 1923.00 713.10
AS DAILY LOW 1299.00 1883.25 699.60​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 26-June-2008
Federal Reserve holding rates steady, durable Goods orders unchanged for the month and New Home sales lower than expected resulted in moderate gains for the US markets.


ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM GDP- final
8:30 AM Chain Deflator- final
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Existing Home Sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS
Markets retreat from their intraday highs but managed to end higher. A higher opening on the equity indexes resulted on a positive session. The E-mini SP opened at 1320.25 and started the session with good upside momentum, the index reached 1326.75, pulled back to test the 1323.00 area and rallied back up to 1327.00. Another pullback held at the same levels and once the Crude Oil inventories were released one hour after the opening, the markets rallied to new intraday highs with the E-mini SP reaching our first upside objective and strong resistance at 1330.50. Volumes slowed as the markets were waiting for the FOMC policy statement and rates decision and spent the next three hours in a narrow range between 1329.00 and 1326.00 were the index showed strong support. Once the announcement was release, the index rallied straight up to 1334.00, dropped to 1328.00, bounced back up to 1334.50 and pushed lower to 1324.50. A double bottom at that level resulted in another strong push to the upside reaching 1337.75 while the E-mini Nasdaq tested the 1960.75. The move lost its momentum and the indexes started to trade lower with the E-mini SP pushing all the way down to 1321.00 where the market held and bounced to the 1325.00 area just to close a few points bellow that level. For the day, the E-mini SP added 7.00 points closing the session at 1322.50, the E-mini Nasdaq gained 20.75 closing at 1932.25 and the E-mini Russell ended higher by 7.7 points at 714.30 The Dow cash posted another losing session paring some of the early loses ending lower by 35 points at 11807.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Despite yesterday’s late pullback, the bounce from the lows was solid, in particular for the Dow cash that is testing the yearly lows. We have to remember that the January and March lows on all the indexes was met with strong buying, but looking at the charts, the only index that has reached those lows is the Dow cash, so here the question is if all the other indexes will continue to move lower with the Dow guidance or yesterday’s low at 11725 is a triple bottom from where the markets will be able to rally. The question will be resolved soon. Despite the fact that wee could see a big bounce on all the indexes, especially after today’s Fed’s rate decision, I think the markets will head lower if not today during the coming sessions. You have to remember that many times the real direction of the markets is seen one day after the Fed’s announcement and it fireworks, so despite of what happens today after the announcement and the text gets released, keep in mind that it could be a false move. So taking into account the solid move that we saw from yesterday’s early lows, at prices where many short sellers could be trapped, the markets should be able to rally at least for a few days, and if I am right and we will see lower prices, then next week the downtrend should resume. Remember that I have been writing about a possible rally that reaches first the 1330.00-1332.00 area on the E-mini SP and maybe it gets extended to 1346.00, if that happens, and in this move the E-mini Russell reaches back the 730.00 area it will be a great opportunity for the shorts.”

Yesterdays expected rally came from oversold conditions and not from a change on the perception of the economic developments. Despite the positive close in all the indexes the market looks more vulnerable as yesterday’s highs were rejected with strong selling pressure, in particular on the Dow cash which has not been able to sustain any recovery for more than a few hours and it looks that its overall weakness will continue and lead the other indexes to lower prices. So in order to avoid a strong decline during today’s session, the indexes will have to reverse from a lower opening and not later than one hour after the session get started. If than happens, and a clear signal will be the Dow holding support at the yearly lows, then the indexes could rally for a few days in front of the end of month.

Yesterday’s opening left a gap on the E-mini SP at the 1315.00 area, if that gap gets filled during the early going and the index hold, a nice rally that takes the E-mini SP back up to the 1330.00’s could be seen, however, if the markets do not hold the early selling pressure then reaching the 1300.00 or lower during today’s session will be the objective. So, don’t try to catch a falling knife and don’t think a lower opening is a buying opportunity, wait until the indexes trade back in positive territory if you want to get long.

TODAY’S SESSION

We have initial resistance at 1324.50-1326.00 on the E-mini SP, 1938.00-1940.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 715.70-717.10 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets are able to reach those levels, I will expect strong resistance on the E-mini SP, but if that does not stop the rally, then the next levels at 1328.75-1330.50 on the E-mini SP, 1956.75-1948.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 720.90-721.60 on the E-mini Russell could be reached. Nothing good happens if the markets are not able to break above these highs as yesterday’s move above them looks only like short covering and not real buying coming into the markets. However if the indexes exceed those levels, then the way for the 1346.00 level on the E-mini SP will be open once the indexes break above the 1334.00-1335.50 on the E-mini SP,1956.00-1958.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 724.20-725.10 on the E=mini Russell.

There is support at 1318.50-1317.00 on the E-mini SP, 1927.00-1925.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 712.20-711.50 on the E-mini Russell. Trading bellow those areas should push the markets bellow Tuesday’s settlement on the E-mini SP and reach 1313.50-1312.00 on that index, 1919.50-1918.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.00-706.60 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets fail to rally from those levels only 1309.00-1307.50 on the E-mini SP and 1910.00-1908.00 and 703.30-702.10 on the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell are the last life saver before the indexes sink deeper. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1341.75-1343.50 1963.50-1965.00 728.10-729.50
Resistance 3 1334.00-1335.50 1956.00-1958.00 724.20-725.10
Resistance 2 1328.75-1330.50 1946.75-1948.50 720.90-721.60
Resistance 1 1324.50-1326.00 1938.00-1940.00 715.70-717.10
PIVOT 1325.00 1935.00 713.80
Support 1 1318.50-1317.00 1927.00-1925.00 712.20-711.50
Support 2 1313.50-1312.00 1919.50-1918.00 708.00-706.60
Support 3 1309.00-1307.50 1910.00-1908.00 703.30-702.10
Support 4 1303.00-1301.50 1898.00-1897.50 698.60-697.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1375.37 2039.63 745.69
1369.88 2028.12 742.11
1361.00 2009.50 736.30
1352.12 1990.88 730.49
1346.63 1979.37 726.91
1337.75 1960.75 721.10
1328.87 1942.13 715.29
1326.13 1936.38 713.50
1323.38 1930.62 711.71
1314.50 1912.00 705.90
1305.62 1893.38 700.09
1300.13 1881.87 696.51
1291.25 1863.25 690.70
1282.37 1844.63 684.89
1276.88 1833.12 681.31



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1341.75 1970.75 725.30
AS DAILY LOW 1318.50 1922.25 710.10​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-June-2008

Downgrades everywhere, Crude Oil topping $140, GDP as expected and a rebound in Existing Home Sales sent the markets down 3%.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM PCE Core Inflation


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

US equity markets close sharply lower and near their intraday lows. A lower opening that couldn’t get reversed. The E-mini SP as the other indexes gapped down at the opening starting the session at 1309.50. A feeble bounce during the first minutes of trading reached 1310.50 where the sellers came in strongly pushing the index down to 1303.75. The index tried to come back but once it failed to get back above the 1310.00 area the bears were in full control. The E-mini SP pushed down bellow the 1300.00 area reaching 1298.00. A four point bounce to the 1302.00 area was met once more with strong selling pressure and the index tested new lows at 1293.00, bounced back to 1297.00 an fell once more to a new low at 1291.75. A short covering rally took the index up to the 1298.00 zone but as the other bounces resulted in a selling opportunity. The E-mini SP made new lows at 1387.25, bounced back to 1293.00 where sellers took advantage and pressed the index to new lows into the close reaching 1283.00. the carnage was general in all the indexes with the E-mini SP losing 38.00 points and closing the session at 1284.50, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 65.75 points and settled at 1866.50 and the E-mini Russell gave back 17.70 points ending the day at 696.60. The Dow cash lost another 358 points closing at its lowest level in almost two years at 11453.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Yesterdays expected rally came from oversold conditions and not from a change on the perception of the economic developments. Despite the positive close in all the indexes the market looks more vulnerable as yesterday’s highs were rejected with strong selling pressure, in particular on the Dow cash which has not been able to sustain any recovery for more than a few hours and it looks that its overall weakness will continue and lead the other indexes to lower prices. So in order to avoid a strong decline during today’s session, the indexes will have to reverse from a lower opening and not later than one hour after the session get started. If than happens, and a clear signal will be the Dow holding support at the yearly lows, then the indexes could rally for a few days in front of the end of month. Yesterday’s opening left a gap on the E-mini SP at the 1315.00 area, if that gap gets filled during the early going and the index hold, a nice rally that takes the E-mini SP back up to the 1330.00’s could be seen, however, if the markets do not hold the early selling pressure then reaching the 1300.00 or lower during today’s session will be the objective. So, don’t try to catch a falling knife and don’t think a lower opening is a buying opportunity, wait until the indexes trade back in positive territory if you want to get long.

Yesterday’s session with a close near the lows may have exhausted this last move and probably will give to the markets the chance to rebound in front of the end of month and next week holiday. The E-mini SP has almost reached my third weekly support level at 1378.50, and has successfully closed the pending gap at 1288.00, so a rebound that last 4-5 days looks probable. If that happen, then the next move could take the index to the 1274.00 or 1262.00 areas, and only from there, could be that a short term low that last more than a few days has been printed on the daily charts. I would be calling a low if yesterday’s nose-dive move on the indexes have been done with some panic, but despite the strong down momentum, no panic has been seen. That is what makes me think that these are not the ultimate lows that will aloud the markets to post a multi week rally, but a weekly close above or near the 1300.00 area will be positive. The damage is tremendous, particularly in the Dow which is down almost 1600 points in the last 40 days of trading. This big break from the trending line on the Dow futures has matched the January intraday lows and posted a perfect double bottom, and this, my friends is the key for a rebound or a consolidation for the next few sessions. However, this index will have to close back above the 12000 area in order to negate an extremely bearish pattern. So don’t get over excited that yesterday’s lows are the greatest buying opportunity. Remember that I have been writing about the divergences between the indexes, and I have referred to them as a red signal for the markets, so if wee do get a 1-4 day’s countertrend rally, all the indexes will have to participate in the move or it will be a 1-4 hours countertrend move. Just to close my commentary, it is not usual to see two trend days in a row, so I don’t think that today’s session will be a copy of yesterday.
.

TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1288.00-1290.50 on the E-mini SP, 1873.00-1874.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.30-701.90 on the E-mini Russell. If the markets can not break easily above those levels during the first 40 minutes of trading, new lows will be seen before any rebound attempt succeed to push a bit higher, but if they managed to exceed those levels, a push up to the next areas at 1295.25-1297.00 on the E-mini SP, 1879.50-1881.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 705.70-707.20 on the E-mini Russell could be seen. Those levels coincide on the E-mini SP with its daily pivot point, so if the bounce is weak it should not exceed that area and instead of a reaction rally we could have a narrow range session that consolidates yesterday’s huge move. If the indexes trade higher, then a test of 1303.00-1304.00 on the E-mini SP, 1888.00-1889.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 709.00-710.80 on the E-mini Russell could be seen before the day is over.

There is support at 1280.00-1278.25 on the E-mini SP, 1860.00-1858.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 694.80-693.20 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes can not hold an early pullback to those areas the downside could gain new momentum pushing the markets lower to 1273.50-1272.00 on the E-mini SP, 1851.00-1848.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 790.00-689.90 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas are a great buying opportunity with tight stops as a good swing trade may be trigger at those levels, however if buyers do not stand in line to buy there, then the move will reach the 1364.24-1363.00 levels on the E-mini SP and 1841.50-1840 and 685.00-683.50 on the NQ’s and Russell before the day is over. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1308.50-1309.75 1899.00-1902.00 716.00-717.60
Resistance 3 1303.00-1304.00 1888.00-1889.00 709.00-710.80
Resistance 2 1295.25-1297.00 1879.50-1881.00 705.70-707.20
Resistance 1 1288.00-1290.50 1873.00-1874.00 700.30-701.90
PIVOT 1296.50 1887.50 702.30
Support 1 1280.00-1278.25 1860.00-1858.00 694.80-693.20
Support 2 1273.50-1272.00 1851.00-1848.50 690.00-689.90
Support 3 1264.25-1263.00 1841.50-1840.00 685.00-683.50
Support 4 1258.50-1257.25 1834.00-1832.25 677.30-675.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1385.76 2047.72 745.87
1376.49 2031.03 741.33
1361.50 2004.00 734.00
1346.51 1976.97 726.67
1337.24 1960.28 722.13
1322.25 1933.25 714.80
1307.26 1906.22 707.47
1302.63 1897.88 705.20
1297.99 1889.53 702.93
1283.00 1862.50 695.60
1268.01 1835.47 688.27
1258.74 1818.78 683.73
1243.75 1791.75 676.40
1228.76 1764.72 669.07
1219.49 1748.03 664.53



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1303.25 1899.50 705.70
AS DAILY LOW 1264.00 1829.00 686.50​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]

 

[arturo1]

Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-June-2008

Personal Income and Spending higher than expected, Michigan sentiment showing consumer’s confidence at its lowest levels and new record crude oil prices, resulted in a mixed session with a bearish bias.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 04-July-2008

R3 1426.50
R2 1361.75
R1 1321.00
PP 1296.75
S1 1256.00
S2 1231.50
S3 1192.00

ECONOMIC DATA

9:45 AM Chicago PMI


WEEKLY RECAP

A rough week for the US markets with all the major indexes bellow key levels. Markets opened the week on an effort to find stability after the previous Friday strong sell off. Monday was a narrow range trading session with financials and bank stocks continue to trade lower. Techs and mid- cap broke finally their uptrend adding loses to the previous session. At the end of the day the E-mini SP lost .75 points and settled at 1318.25, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 23.50 points closing the day at 1918.00 and the E-mini Russell lost 8.70 points closing at 717.10, its second close bellow its key support area at 730.00. The Dow cash closed at 11842, unchanged for the day. Tuesday, the markets tried hard to hold in front of Wednesday’s FOMC Policy statement and rate decision, but the economic data continued to show deteriorating conditions, Consumer Confidence fell to a 16 year low and Home prices plunged 15.3 on a yearly basis, markets rallied during the early morning but failed to sustain the gains into the close, the E-mini SP lost 2.75 points and settled at 1315.50, the E-mini Nasdaq gave back another 6.50 points closing at 1911.50 and the E-mini Russell ended lower by 10.50 points at 706.60. The Dow cash posted another losing session ending lower by 35 points at 11807. Wednesday was a busy day, better than expect Durable Goods orders and New Home Sales not as worst as expected led the markets to early gains that held until the FOMC Policy Statement was released, changing its previous policy, the FED signaled the end of the rate cuts, but did not gave investors a clear view of how it is going to fight inflation and future inflation expectative, the different indexes finished the trading session well bellow their intraday highs with the E-mini SP added 7.00 points closing the session at 1322.50, the E-mini Nasdaq gained 20.75 closing at 1932.25 and the E-mini Russell ended higher by 7.7 points at 714.30. As many occasions after the FED decision, markets react the next day, Thursday’s session, before the opening the GDP for Q1 was released showing a 1% growth, also, Initial Claims came out at their four week average, but news about Citigroup additional write downs and financial institutions downgrades kept the markets under extreme pressure since the beginning of the session, despite many rally attempts, the carnage was general in all the indexes with the E-mini SP losing 38.00 points and closing the session at 1284.50, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 65.75 points and settled at 1866.50 and the E-mini Russell gave back 17.70 points ending the day at 696.60. The Dow cash lost another 358 points closing at its lowest level in almost two years at 11453. Friday, markets continued to deteriorate, but the downside momentum lost some of its steam as loses were moderate, record Crude Oil prices that reached $143 during the session and weakness on the US dollar against better that expected Personal Income and Spending kept the markets trading on a narrow range with a slightly bearish bias. Industrial and financial stocks were beaten equally with GM trading at the lowest level since 1955 and Goldman, Merrill and JP Morgan were downgraded. At the end of the session, the E-mini SP lost another 4.50 points closing at 1280.00, the E-mini Nasdaq closed almost unchanged at 1865.75 and the E-mini Russell added 2.30 points at 698.90. The Dow cash continued to trade lower and lost another 106 points ending the week at 11346, its lowest level in the last two years. For the week, the main indexes lost between 3 and 4.2%.


FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets continued to trade down but some signs of stability were seen as support levels acted well giving the indexes a late rebound. The E-mini SP opened at 1385.50 and bounced to test its daily resistance at 1288.00 where sellers stepped in and drove process lower testing our first support level at 1280.25. A good short covering rally in all the indexes reached new highs pushing the E-mini SP up to 1291.00 where the rally failed just at our resistance areas. The E-mini SP pulled back to 1285.50 and bounced printing a higher low on the intraday charts. Unable to move higher, the index traded lower making a new low at 1279.00 from where a feeble bounce to 1286.50 was aggressively sold pushing the E-mini SP all the way down to 1273.00. A double bottom managed to hold and the index rallied all the way back up to 1385.50. The last two hours of trading the E-mini SP traded between the 1277.00 support level and 1285.00 which was rejected a few times during the session. At the end of the day, the E-mini SP ended lower by 4.50 points at 1280.00, the E-mini Nasdaq at 1865.75 and the E-mini Russell at 698.90. The Dow cash extended its loses closing the session at 11346.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The divergences between the indexes continue to be present as an alert for those who think that the markets are out of troubles. The downtrend on the E-mini SP and Dow, is obvious, but the E-mini Nasdaq and Russell continue to hold without breaking its consolidating pattern. The indexes have already broke bellow their key support levels after last week failure to get back above the 1371.00 area on the E-mini SP and there is not reason to assume that lower prices won’t be seen during the coming sessions. However the oversold conditions in the markets, in particular on the Dow cash, that already fell almost 1300 points from its last highs and the June option expiration that is already behind us, could result in a 1-3 countertrend rally in all the indexes. That first degree countertrend should take the E-mini SP to the 1331.00-1333.00 area and maybe to the 1342.00-1346.00, but moving up there, could offer a great shorting opportunity as the index should test at least the 1296.00 level during the following days. If that will be the low from where a sustainable rally starts, will have to happen with a rebound on the Financial and Bank sectors, as all the time that those are on a free fall, nothing good is going to happen in the markets. Assuming that I am correct and the markets bounce today and tomorrow, before the next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and rate decision, the Dow cash should be able to get near the 12050 area, and from there the expected test of the January and March lows should be seen before the indexes start a multi week countertrend rally in this bear market."

Well, the E-mini SP was able to get near the 1342.00 where I called for a great shorting opportunity and a move to the downside for a test of the yearly lows, however, the downtrend has been stronger than I expected and Friday’s lows could have reached a temporary low. The size and extension of the last down move have place the indexes near levels where a bounce could be seen, if that bounce will be short lived or the indexes will start a consolidation period that finally will result in a mid term recovery from the recent loses, is something that only time will tell us, but the odds favor some kind of temporary bounce. Friday’s low on the E-mini SP has reached support levels and they should hold despite an intraday break bellow them and rally. However, if that rally will last more than one day and then get resolved with another steep fall, or the rally will be a 2-4 days move into the end of this holiday week and then later next week take out the recent lows it depends of what happens during today’s session.

For today’s trading session I will expect some kind of rebound, but I am not so sure that it will be longer that one day and then move once more lower to make new lows in capitulation move that bring the markets to new lows bellow the March low. Only a rally that holds the recent lows for more than 14 days will indicate that a mid term low is in place. During today’s trading session I will go long on a test of Friday’s lows or I will try to play the bullish side of the markets all the time that the indexes are trading above my pivot point levels.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is good resistance at 1283.50-1285.25 on the E-mini SP, 1870.00-1872.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 700.90-702.00 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas on the E-mini SP were rejected three different times during Friday’s session, and I assume that if that index managed to trade above them during today’s session and hold on a pullback, some kind of rebound could be sustainable into the end of the session. So, if the markets manage to break higher, a test of Friday’s highs at 1290.00-1291.25 on the E-mini SP, 1877.00-1879.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 703.80-705.00 on the E-mini Russell may be reached without any problem. The indexes will have to gain some good momentum or shorts run to cover to be able to move higher, if that happens I won’t be surprise to see the indexes moving higher in this end of month trying to print the next levels on the intraday charts at 1298.00-1300.25 on the E-mini SP, 1984.00-1986.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 708.40-710.10 on the E-mini Russell.


There is support just bellow late Friday’s lows at 1276.50-1275.00 on the E-mini SP, 1861.00-1858.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 696.90-695.80 on the E-mini Russell. Those must hold, and give the indexes a chance to bounce, a nice short covering rally could start there, but if those levels fail to hold, then 1271.50-1269.75 on the E-mini SP, 1854.00-1851.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 692.50-691.30 on the E-mini Russell will be visited. If those areas are not bought aggressively, 1263.50-1262.00 on the E-mini SP, 1842.75-1841.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 687.70-686.40 will act as a magnet and maybe stop out the last longs on this bear market. If those areas do not stop the bloodbath, we could see another 40 points drop on the E-mini SP during the coming sessions. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1309.25-1310.50 1900.00-1901.75 715.70-716.80
Resistance 3 1298.00-1300.25 1984.00-1986.00 708.40-710.10
Resistance 2 1290.00-1291.25 1877.00-1879.00 703.80-705.00
Resistance 1 1283.50-1285.25 1870.00-1872.00 700.90-702.00
PIVOT 1281.50 1860.00 697.30
Support 1 1276.50-1275.00 1861.00-1858.00 696.90-695.80
Support 2 1271.50-1269.75 1854.00-1851.50 692.50-691.30
Support 3 1263.50-1262.00 1842.75-1841.00 687.70-686.40
Support 4 1258.25-1256.50 1833.00-1832.00 682.30-681.00


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1322.49 1945.30 719.96
1318.01 1935.45 717.34
1310.75 1919.50 713.10
1303.49 1903.55 708.86
1299.01 1893.70 706.24
1291.75 1877.75 702.00
1284.49 1861.80 697.76
1282.25 1856.88 696.45
1280.01 1851.95 695.14
1272.75 1836.00 690.90
1265.49 1820.05 686.66
1261.01 1810.20 684.04
1253.75 1794.25 679.80
1246.49 1778.30 675.56
1242.01 1768.45 672.94



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1285.75 1871.75 706.00
AS DAILY LOW 1266.75 1830.00 694.90​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
Index Futures Information Services - Emini Trading[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]