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GUESS DE EMINI SP FOR 19 OCTOBER 2007


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Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-August-2008


NY Empire State Index and industrial Production up, Michigan Sentiment lower than expected, lower crude oil prices and a strong dollar give way to a quite session with a mixed close.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 22-August-2008

R3 1356.25
R2 1334.75
R1 1310.50
PP 1296.00
S1 1278.25
S2 1257.00
S3 1239.50

ECONOMIC DATA

None

WEEKLY RECAP

Markets managed to hold their recent gains as crude oil prices continue to fall while traders keep buying the US dollar. We started the week with all the indexes trading higher and reaching new highs for the last month. After a flat opening and despite tighten credit standards the indexes rallied strong as non economic data was released. For the day the E-mini SP added 12.75 points and closed at 1305.00 after making a high at 1310.25, the E-mini Nasdaq 19.00 points and the Russell had a huge rally gaining 18.80 points clo9sing at 750.40. The Dow was not the exception advancing 48 points reaching 11782. Tuesday, the indexes gave back their previous session gains as weakness on the financial sectors kept the markets under pressure during all the session. JP Morgan reported another $1.5 billion loss and an independent report said that one third of new home owners owe more money than their houses is worth. Despite the early sell off, the indexes were able recover part of their early losses. For the session, the SP lost 13.50 points finishing the session at 1291.50, the E-mini Nasdaq closed almost unchanged at 1944.75 and the E-mini Russell lost 3.40 points ending the session at 747.00. The big looser was the Dow closing 139 points lower at 11642. Weakness continued during Wednesday’s session as Retail Sales for the month of July came out worst than expected. Business Inventories were higher signaling less consumption. Crude oil inventories came out surprisingly lower than expected and additional concerns on the financial sectors kept the indexes under pressure during all the session but a mid-day rally pared some of the losses. The SP lost 7.00 points closing at 1284.50, the Nasdaq lost 3.25 points at 1941.50 and the Russell finished almost unchanged at 747.20. The Dow posted another negative session closing at 11532, minus 109 points. A lower opening for Thursday’s session founded strong support just above the previous session lows and despite a huge increase in the Consumer price Index, the markets were able to close higher. The weekly jobless initial benefit claims showed a feeble recovery and crude oil sold off strongly as fears of additional weakness on the US economy kept demand expectations lower. Wal-Mart reported better than expected earnings boosting the retail sector. For the day, the E-mini SP closed higher by 9.25 points at 1293.75, the Nasdaq, that leaded the intraday recovery rally was up 24.25 points ending the session at 1965.75 and the Russell closed near the recent highs at 755.00 with a 7.80 points gain. The Dow finished also higher at 11615 adding 82 points. Friday’s session was a quite one as the indexes traded most of the session in a narrow range. The economic reports showed an increase for the NY Empire State Index and Industrial Production was up by .2%. The Michigan sentiment index which measures consumer confidence improved less than expected as fears of recession still weighted on consumer’s minds. Bond insurers AMBAC and MBIA kept their AA rating by S&P and were removed from the CreditWatch negative list. Despite the August option expiration the lack of volatility was present during all the session. Commodities continued to fall despite a late bounced on the crude oil and the US dollar pushed higher. For the day, the SP was higher 6.00 points gain at 1299.75, the E-mini Nasdaq settled unchanged at 1965.50 and the Russell closed the day at 754.70. The Dow ended higher by 43 points at 11659.




FRIDAY’S MARKETS

A quite session for the US equity markets. After a flat opening well below the nightly highs, the E-mini SP rallied to 1302.50 where it ran out of steam as the Nasdaq and Russell lost their upside momentum. The SP sold off testing levels just above our pivot point making a low at 1291.00. After holding the first hour lows, the indexes rallied once more with the SP reaching 1301.50. The index pulled back once to 1297.50, bounced to 1301.75 where the double top held the short covering rally. The dwindling Nasdaq and Russell kept the highs intact and the markets traded in a sideways patter for most of the session with the SP moving between the 1294.00 and 1298.00 areas. Two hours before the close with the E-mini Nasdaq making new marginal lows at 1952.50 and the Russell moving lower, the E-mini SP tested once more the 1294.00 area, bounced back up to 1297.50, pulled back to 1296.00, bounced to 1299.25, tested once more the support area at 1296.00 and bounced into the close. The SP ended the session with a 6.00 points gain at 1299.75, the E-mini Nasdaq settled unchanged at 1965.50 and the Russell closed the day at 754.70. The Dow ended higher by 43 points at 11659.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” We came into the trading session expecting more sideways trading between the recent lows and highs as the indexes digest the last explosive rally, and despite that the economic news did not justify a positive session, the indexes reacted to the lower boundary trend line holding the selling pressure. The markets continue to consolidate and we should consider that they will continue to do so as the rallies continue to get sold and the sell offs keep showing buying interest. The SP and Dow continues to build an upward slopping channel that once it gets broken to the downside it could result in a huge sell off. The Nasdaq looks like toping, but we can not exclude the possibilities of another leg up that push that index to the 2050 level carrying the momentum to the SP and testing the 1320.00-1330.00 area. Of curse, I don’t expect this to happen during today’s session, but you never know, we have the August option expiration and a few economic reports that should add volatility to the trading session. So for today, selling the rallies once they stall and buying the pullbacks should be the best scenario as option players should try to play both sides of the markets but I will follow closely the E-mini Nasdaq as a push higher on that index could result in another short covering rally for the other indexes.”


We came into Friday’s session looking for the last two day consolidation to continue despite the August option expiration where selling the rallies and buying the pullbacks was the way to go, and we were correct, but additionally we saw a narrow range trading session that will have to get a breakout if not today, during tomorrow session. The way SP has been posting higher lows with support coming in at very high levels, call for another leg in this rally that should propel prices up at least to the 1320.00 level. However if the index fails to move higher and last week 1310.25 area is not exceeded, then probably this move is already exhausted. Take into account that this struggling upside move usually gets resolved to the upside but if we don’t see a strong breakout during the next 48 hours, then the lower trend line will get broken with a wide range day that once if breaks below 1274.00 last week low could get accelerated to the downside.
The Dow keeps consolidating and as the SP’s looks ready to break higher but the upward channel could also get re4solved to the downside, in this index keep a close eye on last Thursday highs around 11730 as a signal for an upside breakout that could lead this index the 12000-12300 areas, only trading below 11435 will indicate that the rally is over.

So, for today’s trading session, we will expect to see a breakout above or below last Friday’s high and low as a signal for early market direction, following closely the 1291.00 level on the SP for downside direction and 1976.00 on the NQ for market strength.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above Friday’s highs at 1302.00-1303.00 on the E-mini SP, 1970.00-1972.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 755.00-756.90 on the E-mini Russell. A test of those highs, early in the morning, that fails to break higher will indicate a pullback to the 1291.00 area on the SP’s, but if the markets are strong, the next hurdles are at 1306.25-1307.50 on the SP, 1977.50-1979.00 on the Nasdaq and 759.70-760.80 on the Russell. If the indexes trade at these levels and hold a pullback to the previous resistance levels, then odds are for a strong breakout that should boost the markets once the 1309.50-1310.50 areas on the SP,1788.75-1789.75 on the Nasdaq and 763.90-764.70 on the Russell get crushed.

There is support at 1297.50-1296.50 on the E-mini SP, 1960.75-1958.50 on the Nasdaq and 752.80-751.40 on the E-mini Russell. Trading below those levels will drive the indexes to test the KEY intraday support at 1293.00-1292.00 on the SP, 1953.75-1954.00 on the Nasdaq and 749.00-748.30 on the Russell. If the SP can hold this support levels, and trade back above the 1295.00-1296.00 area, look top get long with tight stops, but if those levels can not hold, then the trend could be rolling down and bring the indexes to test lower levels at 1287.00-1285.50 on the SP, 1950.00-1948.50 on the Nasdaq and 745.80-748.30 on the Russell, where buyers should enter strong, if that not happen, the longs will be pulling back their bids, and a downside session may be seen. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1316.00-1317.50 1997.50-2000.50 769.00-770.50
Resistance 3 1309.50-1310.50 1988.75-1989.75 763.90-764.70
Resistance 2 1306.25-1307.50 1977.50-1979.00 759.70-760.80
Resistance 1 1302.00-1303.00 1970.00-1972.00 755.00-756.90
PIVOT 1297.50 1965.00 754.90
Support 1 1297.50-1296.50 1960.75-1958.50 752.80-751.40
Support 2 1293.00-1292.00 1953.75-1954.00 749.00-748.30
Support 3 1287.00-1285.50 1950.00-1948.50 745.80-744.70
Support 4 1280.00-1278.50 1940.00-1938.75 742.00-741.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1321.92 2017.30 793.39
1319.08 2011.45 789.11
1314.50 2002.00 782.20
1309.92 1992.55 775.29
1307.08 1986.70 771.01
1302.50 1977.25 764.10
1297.92 1967.80 757.19
1296.50 1964.88 755.05
1295.08 1961.95 752.91
1290.50 1952.50 746.00
1285.92 1943.05 739.09
1283.08 1937.20 734.81
1278.50 1927.75 727.90
1273.92 1918.30 720.99
1271.08 1912.45 716.71



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1307.00 1971.25 759.40
AS DAILY LOW 1295.00 1946.75 741.30​







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 19-August-2008


Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac possible recapitalization by the FED (read: bailout) and Lehman Brothers Q3 worries result in big losses as bonds move higher.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS


US equity indexes end lower on new financial concerns. After trading higher during the Globex session, the indexes opened above Friday’s settlements but under selling pressure. The E-mini SP started the session at 1302.75 and guided by the early selling on the Nasdaq pushed lower. The SP reached 1292.00 and bounced up to 1294.00 where new selling came into the markets making new intraday lows at 1290.50 where the early selling lost its momentum. As shorts run to cover the SP reached 1296.00 and traded sideways for the next hour. Unable to move higher, the indexes finally broke to the downside with the E-mini SP reaching 1286.50. A feeble bounce to 1288.50 was meeting with more selling pressure pushing the index down to a new intraday low at 1282.00, just above our last support levels. After holding the lows, the index bounced a couple of points and than moved lower making a new marginal low. A second effort to move higher leaded by the Nasdaq failed once more at the 1284.50 area from where the SP pushed to new intraday lows at 1278.25. Unable to mount any type of rally, the indexes kept falling with the SP reaching 1274.00 from where it bounced nicely into the close. For the day the SP lost 17.75 points and settled at 1282.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 22.00 points at 1943.50 and the Russell finished the session at 743.80, minus10.90 points. The Dow get hammered losing 180 points closing the day at 11479.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”We came into Friday’s session looking for the last two day consolidation to continue despite the August option expiration where selling the rallies and buying the pullbacks was the way to go, and we were correct, but additionally we saw a narrow range trading session that will have to get a breakout if not today, during tomorrow session. The way SP has been posting higher lows with support coming in at very high levels, call for another leg in this rally that should propel prices up at least to the 1320.00 level. However if the index fails to move higher and last week 1310.25 area is not exceeded, then probably this move is already exhausted. Take into account that this struggling upside move usually gets resolved to the upside but if we don’t see a strong breakout during the next 48 hours, then the lower trend line will get broken with a wide range day that once if breaks below 1274.00 last week low could get accelerated to the downside. The Dow keeps consolidating and as the SP’s looks ready to break higher but the upward channel could also get re4solved to the downside, in this index keep a close eye on last Thursday highs around 11730 as a signal for an upside breakout that could lead this index the 12000-12300 areas, only trading below 11435 will indicate that the rally is over.”

Yesterday’s move was the direct consequence of the failure to break higher that we were taking about, and, the SP reached EXACTLY our 1274.00 level before bouncing back, also, the Dow, made a low at 11434, just one point below our 11435 downside objective for an expected correction. So our levels held, meanwhile, the selling pressure. The SP and Dow are testing the lower boundary that if it gets broken it could trigger a huge downside break, its confirmation, will be breaking below yesterday’s lows. The Nasdaq keeps holding the recent range, but it seems that can not move higher, and, at some moment will have to follow the other two indexes and, if the downside break happens, move much lower. So despite that the indexes were able to come back to a neutral position during yesterday’s last hour of the session, the markets remain extremely vulnerable and another down day will indicate that the last countertrend rally is complete, if that is the case, chances to visit the July lows will be the most probable scenario.


For today, there is a lot of important data before the market opens, housing and inflation reports, that will impact the opening and the trading session. I can call for a day of sideways trading as yesterday’s sell off consolidates, but breaking below yesterday’s lows and not bouncing almost immediately will open the door for another negative session. I won’t be a buyer until the SP clears my 1287.25 pivot point.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above my pivot point at 1288.50-1290.50 on the E-mini SP, 1948.50-1950.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 745.60-747.80 on the E-mini Russell. Only trading above those levels will invite buyers to jump, if that happens and yesterday’s down move was only a profit taking session in this bear market rally, then the indexes should be able to reach the next levels at 1294.50-1296.00 on the SP, 1955.00-1957.50 on the Nasdaq and 749.50-750.70 on the Russell. If the rally reaches those levels and the move stalls, go short with tight stops. But if the market is showing strength, then the SP should be able to reach the next resistance levels at 1299.75-1300.75 while the Nasdaq and Russell test the 1970.00-1971.25 and 755.40-756.50 respectively.

There is support at 1279.00-1278.00 on the E-mini SP, 1938.50-1936.50 on the Nasdaq and 741.90-740.30 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens all the time that the indexes trade below those areas, and if bidding is not strong down there, then another sell off may be in the way with the indexes testing 1276.00-1274.50 on the SP, 1932.00-1930.25 on the Nasdaq and 737.70-736.20, if those can not hold, then longs may start to throw away the merchandise as the indexes move down to 1270.00-1268.50 on the SP, 1919.50-1918.00 on the Nasdaq and 734.00-732.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1306.75-1308.50 1977.00-1978.75 760.90-761.70
Resistance 3 1299.75-1300.75 1970.00-1971.25 755.40-756.50
Resistance 2 1294.50-1296.00 1955.00-1957.50 749.50-750.70
Resistance 1 1288.50-1290.50 1948.50-1950.00 745.60-747.80
PIVOT 1287.25 1947.75 746.00
Support 1 1279.00-1278.00 1938.50-1936.50 741.90-740.30
Support 2 1276.00-1274.50 1932.00-1930.25 737.70-736.20
Support 3 1270.00-1268.50 1919.50-1918.00 734.00-732.80
Support 4 1264.50-1263.00 1913.50-1912.00 729.80-727.90


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1357.78 2060.54 791.84
1350.22 2048.21 786.86
1338.00 2028.25 778.80
1325.78 2008.29 770.74
1318.22 1995.96 765.76
1306.00 1976.00 757.70
1293.78 1956.04 749.64
1290.00 1949.88 747.15
1286.22 1943.71 744.66
1274.00 1923.75 736.60
1261.78 1903.79 728.54
1254.22 1891.46 723.56
1242.00 1871.50 715.50
1229.78 1851.54 707.44
1222.22 1839.21 702.46



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1294.00 1959.75 750.70
AS DAILY LOW 1262.00 1907.50 729.80​
Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 20-August-2008


PPI huge increase and Housing Starts at 17 years low, higher crude oil prices and bank worries result in another negative session.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:35 Crude Inventories

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

PPI up 1.2% and Housing continuing deterioration resulted in another lower session for the equity markets. The E-mini SP started the trading session at 1271.75 and pushed higher testing the 1274.50 area where sellers came in driving the index to the 1270.00 level. A second rally attempt that reached 1273.75 failed to gain upside momentum and the lower high was meeting with more selling pushing the SP and the other indexes much lower. The SP pushed down to 1267.25 and bounced four points. The short covering rally was another selling opportunity as shorts pushed lower driving the index to 1265.75. Once more the SP bounced and tested the previous high just above the 1270.00’s. Unable to mount any type of rally, seller stepped in once more and the index fell to new lows reaching the 1263.00 area, just at our fourth support levels. Once the selling pressure lost its momentum, the SP bounced just above our updated 1270.50 resistance area. Once more the rally failed and the SP moved down to 1266.50, bounced a couple of points and pushed down to 1264.00 holding the daily lows. The late rebound failed at 1267.75 from where the Nasdaq and Russell posted new lows as the SP moved lower only to the 1262.75 area, bounced to 1265.25, tested the lows and rallied into the end of the session. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 13.50 points and settled at 1268.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 24.25 points at 1919.25 and the Russell settled at 730.30, minus 13.50 points. The Dow gave back another 130 points and finished the session at 11348.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”Yesterday’s move was the direct consequence of the failure to break higher that we were taking about, and, the SP reached EXACTLY our 1274.00 level before bouncing back, also, the Dow, made a low at 11434, just one point below our 11435 downside objective for an expected correction. So our levels held, meanwhile, the selling pressure. The SP and Dow are testing the lower boundary that if it gets broken it could trigger a huge downside break, its confirmation, will be breaking below yesterday’s lows. The Nasdaq keeps holding the recent range, but it seems that can not move higher, and, at some moment will have to follow the other two indexes and, if the downside break happens, move much lower. So despite that the indexes were able to come back to a neutral position during yesterday’s last hour of the session, the markets remain extremely vulnerable and another down day will indicate that the last countertrend rally is complete, if that is the case, chances to visit the July lows will be the most probable scenario. For today, there is a lot of important data before the market opens, housing and inflation reports that will impact the opening and the trading session. I can call for a day of sideways trading as yesterday’s sell off consolidates, but breaking below yesterday’s lows and not bouncing almost immediately will open the door for another negative session. I won’t be a buyer until the SP clears my 1287.25 pivot point.”

Once more the indexes sold off in this bearish continuation pattern; however the extremely low volumes (this is one of the lightest periods of the year) helped the markets not to fall into panic despite the ugly economic and financial data and rumors. The indexes reacted very well to support and that could be enough to see a rebound or at least a consolidation session after the two days sell off. Yesterday’s second straight day of selling that bounced from obvious support may see a 1-2 days bounce, and if the trend is down, then the markets should fall sharply and fast, it will take two consecutive closes above the 1291.00 area on the SP in order to negate this pattern. However, when the SP traded at 1200.00 last July I wrote that the markets should enter a long period of consolidation between the 1200.00 and 1300.00 area, so that scenario is still valid unless those areas get broken.

So, for today’s trading session, I favor a bounce with two side actions, all the time that yesterday’s lows hold, and I will be looking to sell near my resistance areas with very tight stops and to be a buyer all the time that yesterday’s lows keep holding or the market is trading in positive territory.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1272.50-1274.00 on the E-mini SP, 1927.25-1928.50 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.00-733.70 on the E-mini Russell. Trading above those levels will result in some short covering that once it reaches the next areas at 1278.50-1280.00 on the SP, 1932.75-1934.00 on the Nasdaq and 736.20-737.80 on the Russell the rally should fail if the trading session is a “sell high, buy low” session. Nut if the markets are due for a stronger countertrend move, then the next areas at 1283.00-1284.50 on the SP, 1942.50-1943.50 on the Nasdaq and 740.60-741.20 on the Russell may be seen before the session is over.

There is support above yesterday’s lows at 1266.50-1264.75 on the E-mini SP, 1915.00-1913.50 on the Nasdaq and 728.60-726.90 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold those areas, and an early pullback should find there very good support. However a false break that trade a bit lower reaching 1262.00-1261.00 on the SP, 1908.00-1906.25 on the Nasdaq and 724.70-723.00 on the Russell could be seen just to trigger the stops. If those areas do not hold, then the SP will reach the 1258.00-1257.25, the Nasdaq 1899.50-1898.00 and the Russell 720.00-719.10. GOOD LUCK.

TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1289.75-1291.25 1953.00-1954.00 749.80-751.00
Resistance 3 1283.00-1284.50 1942.50-1943.50 740.60-741.20
Resistance 2 1278.50-1280.00 1932.75-1934.00 736.20-737.30
Resistance 1 1272.50-1274.00 1927.25-1928.50 732.00-733.70
PIVOT 1271.50 1923.00 733.40
Support 1 1266.50-1264.75 1915.00-1913.50 728.60-726.90
Support 2 1262.00-1261.00 1908.00-1906.25 724.70-723.00
Support 3 1258.00-1257.25 1899.50-1898.00 720.00-719.10
Support 4 1251.75-1249.75 1888.00-1886.50 715.20-714.40


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1315.76 2016.88 774.56
1310.99 2006.62 770.14
1303.25 1990.00 763.00
1295.51 1973.38 755.86
1290.74 1963.12 751.44
1283.00 1946.50 744.30
1275.26 1929.88 737.16
1272.88 1924.75 734.95
1270.49 1919.62 732.74
1262.75 1903.00 725.60
1255.01 1886.38 718.46
1250.24 1876.12 714.04
1242.50 1859.50 706.90
1234.76 1842.88 699.76
1229.99 1832.62 695.34



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1275.75 1932.75 737.30
AS DAILY LOW 1255.50 1889.75 718.60​





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 22-August-2008


Lower than expected Initial and Continuing Claims and a huge jump in crude oil prices resulted in a mixed session for the US equity indexes.


ECONOMIC DATA

None


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets recovered fro early losses ending mixed for the day, The E-mini SP opened lower and pushed down to the 1263.25 area making the daily lows where buyers came in despite the weakness on the other indexes and the huge rally on crude oil prices. The index reached 1271.00 and pulled back to 1267.50. After holding the set back, the SP bounced back to 1273.50 where sellers stepped in and pushed the SP to a test of the 1266.00 support area. A double bottom was bought and the index started to trend up first reaching the previous low, and then making new highs at 1276.00. Another pullback to 1272.50 held and the markets rallied with the SP making highs at 1281.75 from where it pulled back into the close. For the day, the E-mini SP was up 1.75 points closing the session at 1275.50, the Nasdaq lost 8.75 points and finished at 1907.25 and the Russell gave back 9.10 points closing the session at 722.60. The Dow added 12 points and settled at 11430.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:”The markets should continue to fall as yesterdays pressure on the Nasdaq, that has leaded the moves and anticipated the markets trend should resume into today’s session. If this is a normal downtrend, the move should be fast and at least test the 1255.00 area on the E-mini SP if not today’s during tomorrow’s session. As I wrote in my yesterday’s report, only two consecutive closes above the 1291.00 area will negate this pattern. The Dow held and closes above the 11400 area, and it may be that another bounce could reach the 11500 where sellers are waiting in line. The recent consolidation is at the lower boundary of the trend channel, and if the current pattern will get resolved in a normal way, a downside breakout is the most possible scenario. So for today’s session and with this bearish point of view, selling the rallies should offer the best opportunities. I don’t think that the trading session will be similar to yesterday’s session where buying also gave nice trades, I will avoid any long entry if the indexes are trading in negative territory.”


The indexes were able to rebound from their early lows keeping the shorts under pressure for almost all of the session. The weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq and the huge bounce on the crude oil contract did not affect the markets. This consolidation will have to get resolved despite the ultra light volumes, normal in this time of the year. It was very important that the SP held the 1263.00-1260.00 area and probably will try to move a bit higher during today’s session, however nothing really good happens until the index closes above the 1291.00 area; in the same way nothing bad happens until the SP starts to trade below 1260.00.

So under this scenario playing the long side of the markets all the time that they are trading in positive territory seems to be the way for today’s session, and an early sell off could give a good long entry, but as always place tight stops in case yesterday’s rally gets reversed.




TODAY’S SESSION

There is initial resistance at 1277.25-1278.50 on the SP, 1910.50-1912.00 on the Nasdaq and724.60-725.60 on the Russell. As the indexes may continue to consolidate, this could be a good point to get short, but if they manages to break up, then a test of yesterday’s highs at 1281.00-1282.25 on the SP, 1918.00-1919.25 on the Nasdaq and 728.60-729.50 on the Russell may be visited once more. If the markets are strong them they should reach1285.75-1287.50 on the SP, 1924.50-1925.50 on the Nasdaq and 734.50-736.40 on the Russell.


First support levels are at 1272.00-1270.00 on the E-mini SP, 1904.00-1902.00 on the Nasdaq and 720.60-719.60 on the E-mini Russell. Trading below those areas opens once more the chances of a strong sell off, however the lack of volume could push the indexes a bit lower without any momentum as they reach 1264.75-1264.00 on the SP, 1899.00-1897.50 on the Nasdaq and 716.60-716.20 on the Russell. If those levels can not hold the last two days sideways pattern, then the indexes should be able to move lower testing 1260.00-1258.50 on the SP, 1891.00-1889.25 on the Nasdaq and 710.80-708.60 on the Russell. A double bottom there should result in another short covering rally.
Remember that no intraday updates will be available during today’s session. GOOD LUCK.


TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1292.00-1293.50 1933.00-1934.50 740.40-742.00
Resistance 3 1285.75-1287.50 1924.50-1925.50 734.50-736.40
Resistance 2 1281.00-1282.25 1918.00-1919.25 728.60-729.50
Resistance 1 1277.25-1278.50 1910.50-1912.00 724.60-725.60
PIVOT 1273.50 1904.00 725.60
Support 1 1272.00-1270.00 1904.00-1902.00 720.60-719.60
Support 2 1264.75-1264.00 1899.00-1897.50 716.60-716.20
Support 3 1260.00-1258.50 1891.00-1889.25 710.80-708.60
Support 4 1255.00-1253.50 1882.00-1880.00 706.00-705.40



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1311.68 1963.52 750.14
1307.32 1956.73 747.56
1300.25 1945.75 743.40
1293.18 1934.77 739.24
1288.82 1927.98 736.66
1281.75 1917.00 732.50
1274.68 1906.02 728.34
1272.50 1902.63 727.05
1270.32 1899.23 725.76
1263.25 1888.25 721.60
1256.18 1877.27 717.44
1251.82 1870.48 714.86
1244.75 1859.50 710.70
1237.68 1848.52 706.54
1233.32 1841.73 703.96



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1287.25 1912.00 727.70
AS DAILY LOW 1269.25 1883.50
716.70







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-August-2008


Rumors about a Korean group interested in Lehman and Bernanke’s commentaries about inflation result in a rally for all US equity markets. Crude oil ended lower by more than $6.00 dollars.


WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 29-August-2008

R3 1357.50
R2 1331.75
R1 1312.00
PP 1286.25
S1 1266.50
S2 1240.75
S3 1221.00


ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales


WEEKLY RECAP

Markets managed to recover most of their weekly losses after a strong Friday’s session. Monday’s trading session started on a positive tone but as the session advanced, the financial sector started to show weakness, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac traded lower more than 15% on rumors that the FED will capitalize those companies diluting the value of stock holders; this kept the indexes under pressure despite a few short covering rallies. Lehman Brothers traded lower adding pressure to the stock markets and the bonds traded strongly higher. Unable to mount any type of rally, the indexes fell all the session ending the session with big losses. The SP lost 17.75 points and settled at 1282.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 22.00 points at 1943.50 and the Russell finished the session at 743.80, minus10.90 points. The Dow get hammered losing 180 points closing the day at 11479. Tuesday’s session started with the left foot as Home Depot reported lower earnings and the economic reports were a complete disaster, the CPI number came out up by 1.2% and the Core rate up by 0.7%, the housing reports showed Building permits and Housing starts ad the lowest levels in the last 17 years, all this, resulted in another negative session foe the US markets, the E-mini SP lost another 13.50 points and settled at 1268.50, the Nasdaq ended lower by 24.25 points at 1919.25 and the Russell settled at 730.30, minus 13.50 points. The Dow gave back another 130 points and finished the session at 11348. Wednesday’s session the indexes consolidated their weekly losses as the indexes traded on a side ways pattern and narrow ranges, volumes were extremely low, normal for this period of the year, crude oil inventories came out a bit lower than expected but the contract traded erratically closing the session with moderate gains. The positive news was on HP which reported better than expected earnings but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued to extend their losses as a government bailout seems unavoidable. The indexes closed mixed for the session with the SP up 5.25 points closing the session at 1273.75, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 3.25 points and settled at 1916.00 and the Russell ended higher by 1.40 points at 731.70. The Dow ended moderately higher at 11417, up 68 points. Sentiment started to change during Thursday’s session despite a $5.00 dollar increase on the crude oil contract as a consequence of the tension between the US and Russia. Initial and continuing claims were lower than the previous week but the Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed figures continued to show weakness in the economy, however, the stock indexes closed mixed for the session with the SP up 1.75 points at 1275.50, the Nasdaq lower by 8.75 points at 1907.25 and the Russell lost 9.10 points closing the session at 722.60. The Dow added 12 points and settled at 11430. Friday’s opening was strong, rumors about a Korean group buying ( bailing out) Lehman Brothers and Bernanke’s commentaries about a possible cease on inflationary pressures gave the markets an early boost, driving the Dow up more than 200 points during the first half of the session. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac preferred shares were downgraded changing their outlook to negative from stable. However the markets managed to hold most of their gains and closed on positive territory. For the day, the SP was up 16.75 points closing at 1292.25, the Nasdaq ended higher by 22.25 points at 1929.50 and the Russell added 15.40 points closing the week at 738.00. The Dow advanced 197 points and finished the session at 11628.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets opened strong posting another positive session. The E-mini SP opened higher at 1284.00 and pushed up since the beginning of the session. The index advanced with strong upside momentum reaching 1289.50 from where it pulled back mildly to the 1286.50 area. As Bernanke’s commentaries about the inflation were released the markets pushed higher with the SP reaching 1290.50. Another mild pullback resulted in more buying and the index pushed to new intraday highs reaching the 1294.00 level where the rally lost its steam. The SP pulled back slowly to 1283.00 from where the index moved up once more to the 1291.00 area and traded on a sideways pattern between the 1293.00 and 1287.00 level until the last hour of the session. For the session the SP ended higher by 16.75 points at 1292.25, the E-mini Nasdaq closed up by 22.25points at 1929.50 and the Russell advanced 15.40 points closing the session at 738.00. The Dow posted a strong session closing the week at 11628, up 197 points.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The indexes were able to rebound from their early lows keeping the shorts under pressure for almost all of the session. The weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq and the huge bounce on the crude oil contract did not affect the markets. This consolidation will have to get resolved despite the ultra light volumes, normal in this time of the year. It was very important that the SP held the 1263.00-1260.00 area and probably will try to move a bit higher during today’s session; however nothing really good happens until the index closes above the 1291.00 area; in the same way nothing bad happens until the SP starts to trade below 1260.00. So under this scenario playing the long side of the markets all the time that they are trading in positive territory seems to be the way for today’s session, and an early sell off could give a good long entry, but as always place tight stops in case yesterday’s rally gets reversed.”

Friday’s strength resulted in a close above the 1291.00 are that I mentioned during the past week, and that, opens the door for higher prices during this week. However, the lower volume, no matter if it’s a vacation period shows the lack of confidence in the move. The big question now is if this is a dead cat bounce or the indexes are ready to move higher, and the answer will be, what will happen once the SP reaches the lower trend line that supports the last channel and that it is located for today on the 1308.00-1310.00 area. If the index starts the week with a rally, we could see another strong session, and then a definite breakout or another failure that results in another fast drop, and maybe this time, buyers won’t be waiting in line. The weakness that we have seen on the Nasdaq during the last few sessions is a red flag on this last rally, and if that index will continue to underperform the SP, this rally will be a short lived one. All the late rallies have failed, in all the indexes, or they have reversed from critical resistance areas, and the fundamentals do not seem to provide the support for this last rally to gain more momentum. However, this last week of the month, and the coming Labor Day holiday, have the tendency to show some bullishness, and that means that the SP could continue to move higher and close the week between the 1300.00-1310.00 levels. I personally think that Friday’s rally has exhausted the move and that wee should start to move lower.

So for today’s trading session, selling the rallies above Friday’s settlement could give us a great set up to catch a move lower, but if the indexes do not show weakness since the beginning of the session, get short only if the markets are trading in negative territory.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above Friday’s settlement at 1293.75-1294.75 on the E-mini SP, 1931.25-1933.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 739.70-741.20 on the E-mini Russell. If the market opens above those areas we could have another strong session that reaches 1298.50-1300.25 on the SP, 1940.50-1942.00 on the Nasdaq and 743.00-744.50 on the Russell. Be ready for a reversal if the Nasdaq lost its steam at those levels, but if that index is leading the upside move, be ready for additional strength once the SP gets to 1304.00-1304.75, and the Nasdaq and Russell visits the 1946.75-1948.00 and 748.00-750.20 areas respectively. Trading above those levels will give the markets additional upside momentum.


There is support just below Friday’s close at 1290.00-1288.50 on the E-mini SP, 1922.00-1921.00 on the Nasdaq and 734.70-733.10 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes do not hold those levels, in particular on the Nasdaq, be ready for additional weakness that push down prices to 1285.25-1284.00 on the SP, 1915.50-1913.50 on the Nasdaq and 728.10-726.50 on the Russell. If those are the daily lows, we could see a strong rally to the 1300.00 area on the SP, but if those levels fail to hold, look for support at 1281.00-1280.00 on the SP, 1907.00-1906.75 on the Nasdaq and 721.40-720.00 on the Russell. If the Nasdaq is not able to hold there, expect Friday’s highs to be call a “lower high” on the daily charts. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1308.50-1309.75 1952.75-1954.00 756.80-757.90
Resistance 3 1304.00-1304.75 1946.75-1948.00 748.00-750.20
Resistance 2 1298.50-1300.25 1940.50-1942.00 743.00-744.50
Resistance 1 1293.75-1294.75 1931.25-1933.25 739.70-741.20
PIVOT 1286.00 1924.00 732.90
Support 1 1290.00-1288.50 1922.00-1921.00 734.70-733.10
Support 2 1285.25-1284.00 1915.50-1913.50 728.10-726.50
Support 3 1281.00-1280.00 1907.00-1906.75 721.40-720.00
Support 4 1277.00-1275.50 1898.00-1896.50 714.90-713.60


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1330.41 2005.97 768.52
1325.10 1996.53 764.28
1316.50 1981.25 757.40
1307.91 1965.97 750.52
1302.60 1956.53 746.28
1294.00 1941.25 739.40
1285.41 1925.97 732.52
1282.75 1921.25 730.40
1280.10 1916.53 728.28
1271.50 1901.25 721.40
1262.91 1885.97 714.52
1257.60 1876.53 710.28
1249.00 1861.25 703.40
1240.41 1845.97 696.52
1235.10 1836.53 692.28



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1304.00 1955.50 747.70
AS DAILY LOW 1281.75 1915.25 729.70​









Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 26-August-2008


Stocks fall on new concerns about bank losses. Existing Home sales bounce but prices continue to plunge.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM New Home Sales
2:00 PM FOMC Minutes



YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets close sharply lower as new fears about the banking sector kept the financials under strong pressure. The E-mini SP opened lower at 1285.00 and moved lower during the first minutes of the session testing the 1282.00 area. A feeble bounce failed to trade above the opening price and the index pushed lower reaching 1280.50. Another attempt to move higher failed at 1284.00, one of our trading levels, and despite the low volumes sellers pressed down all the equity indexes. The SP founded some support at our 1277.00-1275.50 area but unable to post any type of bounce, it pushed to new lows reaching 1265.75. As the other indexes tried to bounce from critical support levels, the SP moved up slowly to 1271.75 but failed to break higher and pulled back once more below the 1270.00 level making new lows into the end of the session and bouncing a few points before the close. For the day, the E-mini SP lost 25.75 points and settled at 1266.50, the Nasdaq lost 34.50 points ending the session at 1895.00, and the Russell gave back 16.30 points ending at 721.70. The Dow lost more than 2% closing the session at 11286 after losing 241 points.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Friday’s strength resulted in a close above the 1291.00 are that I mentioned during the past week, and that, opens the door for higher prices during this week. However, the lower volume, no matter if it’s a vacation period shows the lack of confidence in the move. The big question now is if this is a dead cat bounce or the indexes are ready to move higher, If the index starts the week with a rally, we could see another strong session, and then a definite breakout or another failure that results in another fast drop, and maybe this time, buyers won’t be waiting in line. The weakness that we have seen on the Nasdaq during the last few sessions is a red flag on this last rally, and if that index will continue to underperform the SP, this rally will be a short lived one. All the late rallies have failed, in all the indexes, or they have reversed from critical resistance areas, and the fundamentals do not seem to provide the support for this last rally to gain more momentum. I personally think that Friday’s rally has exhausted the move and that wee should start to move lower. So for today’s trading session, selling the rallies above Friday’s settlement could give us a great set up to catch a move lower, but if the indexes do not show weakness since the beginning of the session, get short only if the markets are trading in negative territory.”

I mentioned the importance on the SP to maintain levels above the1291.00 area, I mentioned the lack of confidence reflected on the low volumes to maintain long positions, and, I mentioned the relative weakness on the Nasdaq as a negative sign for a continuation of last week rally, and finally I wrote about the possibility that last Friday’s rally exhausted the up move, too much too soon. Once more the indexes have pulled back to critical support areas, to make it or to fail. The weakness on the financial sectors is an extremely heavy weight for long term higher prices, but that does not mean that the indexes can not maintain a weak uptrend, or a long term sideways pattern until the financial and banking crises is priced into the markets. Meanwhile I consider that some “fear” is still missing and that the indexes should move lower. The different indexes held yesterday just above the lower boundary of their trading channels, and that, with the economic reports to get released during today’s session, could result in another wide range session where the indexes could rally and keep building on this long term sideways pattern, or just continue to sell off living Friday’s highs as a short term top. If priors lows get crossed on the SP and Dow, be prepare for much lower prices, at least a test of last week lows on the SPO and a visit to the 11000 level on the Dow.

So for today, there is a lot of important reports to be released, traders may wait for the Consumer Confidence and New Home sales reports to be out half hour after the opening before getting involved. Later on the session, the release of the FOMC minutes could result in additional volatility despite the low holiday volumes. I personally will avoid the long side if the market is trading on negative territory, but I can not rule out the chances of a two side action trading session where yesterday’s huge sell off gets consolidated. So if you get long, do it near support levels with tight stops.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just below yesterday’s late highs at 1269.50-1271.50 on the E-mini SP, 1899.00-1901.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 723.70-725.70 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes can not sustain trading action above those levels, expect yesterday’ drop to continue in a fast way, but if they manage to cross above them, then chances to see a consolidation session will be greater with the SP reaching 1274.75-1276.50, 1904.00-1905.50 on the Nasdaq and 727.60-728.50 on the Russell. If the markets can trade above those levels, be ready for a test of the 1280.00-1281.50 areas on the SP, 1909.00-1910.50 on the Nsdaq and 733.60-734.50 on the Russell.

There is support below yesterday’s lows at 1264.25-1263.00 on the SP, 1890.00-1888.00 on the Nasdaq and 719.70-717.70 on the Russell. A double bottom there could result in a good long entry, however if those can not hold the selling pressure, expect to see lower levels around 1258.76-1257.00 on the SP, 1882.75-1881.00 on the Nasdaq and 615.60-714.00 on the Russell. If those hold, and buyers step back in, the SSP could rally all the way back up to 1271.00, but if those levels fail to hold, expect the downside move to accelerate reaching 1253.50-1251.00 on the SP, 1877.00-1876.00 on the Nasdaq and 712.00-711.10 on the Russell before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.




TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1284.75-1286.50 1919.00-1920.50 739.00-740.30
Resistance 3 1280.00-1281.50 1909.00-1910.50 733.60-734.50
Resistance 2 1274.75-1276.50 1904.00-1905.50 727.60-728.50
Resistance 1 1269.50-1271.50 1899.00-1901.00 723.70-725.70
PIVOT 1274.25 1904.25 725.70
Support 1 1264.25-1263.00 1890.00-1888.00 719.70-717.70
Support 2 1258.75-1257.00 1882.75-1881.00 715.60-714.00
Support 3 1253.50-1251.00 1877.00-1876.00 712.00-711.10
Support 4 1248.00-1246.50 1871.00-1869.00 709.00-707.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1337.55 2001.54 773.45
1330.95 1991.21 768.35
1320.25 1974.50 760.10
1309.55 1957.79 751.85
1302.95 1947.46 746.75
1292.25 1930.75 738.50
1281.55 1914.04 730.25
1278.25 1908.88 727.70
1274.95 1903.71 725.15
1264.25 1887.00 716.90
1253.55 1870.29 708.65
1246.95 1859.96 703.55
1236.25 1843.25 695.30
1225.55 1826.54 687.05
1218.95 1816.21 681.95



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1279.25 1912.75 730.10
AS DAILY LOW 1251.25 1869.00 708.50​








Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

[DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 27-August-2008

Stocks fluctuate as Consumer Confidence improves and New Home Sales were up compared to the previous month.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Durable Orders
10:35 AM Crude Inventories



YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Stocks traded on a narrow range with low volumes. The E-mini SP opened the session at 1267.00 and pulled back to 1263.25, just above the Globex lows. Unable to press lower, the indexes rallied back up with the SP reaching 1270.25. Another pullback to 1266.50 was meeting with buying and the index pushed higher to new intraday highs at 1271.75. Once more the markets pulled back mildly and shorts covered driving the indexes up to their daily highs, the SP reached 1275.75, just at our pivot point level. The relative weakness on the Nasdaq kept the indexes from moving higher, the SP moved down testing the 1267.50, bounced to 1272.00 and moved once more lower holding on a narrow range. A second attempt to break higher failed just below the 1272.00 area resulting in a move down to 1266.00 on the SP and new intraday lows on the E-mini Nasdaq at 1880.75. Once the FOMC Minutes for the last August meeting were released, the SP tested the 1264.75 area while the Nasdaq made a new marginal low. The SP bounced back up 2 points and moved lower testing the 1262.50 Globex low where buyers stepped in pushing the index back up all the way to 1272.00. For the day, the SP ended up 5.25 points at 1271.75, the Nasdaq lost 3.50 points and settled at 1891.50 and the Russell added 2.20 points finishing the session at 723.90. The Dow ended higher by 26 points at 11412.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK


Yesterday I wrote:” Once more the indexes have pulled back to critical support areas, to make it or to fail. The weakness on the financial sectors is an extremely heavy weight for long term higher prices, but that does not mean that the indexes can not maintain a weak uptrend, or a long term sideways pattern until the financial and banking crises is priced into the markets. Meanwhile I consider that some “fear” is still missing and that the indexes should move lower. The different indexes held yesterday just above the lower boundary of their trading channels, and that, with the economic reports to get released during today’s session, could result in another wide range session where the indexes could rally and keep building on this long term sideways pattern, or just continue to sell off living Friday’s highs as a short term top. If priors lows get crossed on the SP and Dow, be prepare for much lower prices, at least a test of last week lows on the SP and a visit to the 11000 level on the Dow.. I personally will avoid the long side if the market is trading on negative territory, but I can not rule out the chances of a two side action trading session where yesterday’s huge sell off gets consolidated. So if you get long, do it near support levels with tight stops.”

We came into the session looking for two side action with a bearish bias and a consolidation of the previous session sell off. The SP reacted perfect to our pivot point by trading constantly below it, and also, managed to hold the critical 1264.25-1263.00 support area while the DOW came back nicely to close above the 11400 level. The Nasdaq continued to show weakness and it seems that if it continues to move lower joining the Dow, lower prices will be seen also on the SO which keeps showing some “bullishness”. The low volumes make difficult to trade, but for those who can afford wide stops opportunities are there. I don’t want to get fooled by yesterday’s late recovery and as I mentioned yesterday, the fear factor is still missing in this last sell off. So despite that we are trading in a range that could hold into next Friday, I can not discard another sell off, which will push the SP below the 1261.00 area with a minimum objective of 1254.00.

So for today’s trading session I won’t jump to buy the pullbacks as yesterday’s lows could not hold this time, I will rather look to sell the rallies, in particular with the SP trading below 1275.50.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance below yesterday’s pivot point at 1273.00-1274.00 on the E-mini SP, 1896.50-1899.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 725.00-726.00 on the E-mini Russell. These levels are extremely important; if the indexes can trade above them we could see some short covering that drives the SP to 1277.50-1279.00 while the Nasdaq and Russell reach 1904.00-1906.00 and 728.00-728.80 respectively. However if the first resistance areas fail to hold during the first hour of the session, beware of another wide sell off. If the indexes do not have troubles rallying then we could see 1283.25-1284.50 on the SP, 1913.00-1914.50 on the Nasdaq and 732.20-733.60 on the Russell.

There is support at 1270.50-1269.25 on the SP, 1886.50-1884.00 on the Nasdaq and 721.80-720.70 on the Russell. I don’t want to be long if the indexes trade below those levels, if than happens the next support areas are at 1266.00-1264.50 on the SP, 1877.50-1876.50 on the Nasdaq and 717.60-716.90 on the Russell. If buyers neither do not step in there, then chances of another wide range down move could drive the indexes down to 1258.00-1256.75 on the SP, 1872.00-1871.00 on the Nasdaq and 710.30-709.50 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1290.00-1290.75 1921.50-1923.00 739.00-740.10
Resistance 3 1283.25-1284.50 1913.00-1914.50 732.20-733.60
Resistance 2 1277.50-1279.00 1904.00-1906.00 728.00-728.80
Resistance 1 1273.00-1274.00 1896.50-1899.00 725.00-726.00
PIVOT 1270.00 1890.50 722.10
Support 1 1270.50-1269.25 1886.50-1884.00 721.80-720.70
Support 2 1266.00-1264.50 1877.50-1876.50 717.60-716.90
Support 3 1258.00-1256.75 1872.00-1871.00 710.30-709.50
Support 4 1251.00-1249.75 1865.00-1863.00 705.60-704.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1297.19 1947.84 745.61
1294.06 1941.41 742.89
1289.00 1931.00 738.50
1283.94 1920.59 734.11
1280.81 1914.16 731.39
1275.75 1903.75 727.00
1270.69 1893.34 722.61
1269.13 1890.13 721.25
1267.56 1886.91 719.89
1262.50 1876.50 715.50
1257.44 1866.09 711.11
1254.31 1859.66 708.39
1249.25 1849.25 704.00
1244.19 1838.84 699.61
1241.06 1832.41 696.89



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1280.25 1897.50 731.20
AS DAILY LOW 1267.00 1870.00 719.70​






Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 28-August-2008


Stocks rallied on a better than expected Durable Goods report. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac gain fir the third consecutive session.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM GDP-prel.
8:30 AM Chain Deflator-prel.
8:30 AM Initial Claims



YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Stocks rallied leaded by gains on the financial sectors. The E-mini SP opened at 1272.00 after been trading lower during the Globex session. An early pullback held the 1270.00-1268.50 area where buyers stepped in and guided by the strength on the Russell reached the 1279.00 area where the rally lost its steam pushing the SP lower to 1273.50. The pullback resulted in a buying opportunity and the indexes rallied with strong momentum to new highs, the SP reached 1285.25 and the Nasdaq tested 1916.50. Once more the rally stall with the SP pulling back to 1280.75 from where another bounce moved up to 1283.75, pushed lower to 1279.50 and rallied one more time posting a lower high on the intraday charts at 1284.50. Unable to break higher, the SP was sold testing the intraday support levels at 1276.50 and bounced nicely into the end of the session. For the day, the SP ended higher by 10.25 points at 1282.00, the Nasdaq recovered 20.25 points closing the session at 1901.75 and the E-mini Russell finished at 731.30, up 7.40 for the day. The Dow closed higher by 89 points at 11502.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” We came into the session looking for two side action with a bearish bias and a consolidation of the previous session sell off. The SP reacted perfect to our pivot point by trading constantly below it, and also, managed to hold the critical 1264.25-1263.00 support area while the DOW came back nicely to close above the 11400 level. The Nasdaq continued to show weakness and it seems that if it continues to move lower joining the Dow, lower prices will be seen also on the SO which keeps showing some “bullishness”. The low volumes make difficult to trade, but for those who can afford wide stops opportunities are there. I don’t want to get fooled by yesterday’s late recovery and as I mentioned yesterday, the fear factor is still missing in this last sell off. So despite that we are trading in a range that could hold into next Friday, I can not discard another sell off, which will push the SP below the 1261.00 area with a minimum objective of 1254.00. So for today’s trading session I won’t jump to buy the pullbacks as yesterday’s lows could not hold this time, I will rather look to sell the rallies, in particular with the SP trading below 1275.50.”

Our bearish bias did not work out yesterday as we were expecting lower prices; however those who bought above the 1275.50 area or at our resistance levels took some nice profits. Yesterday’s rally has placed the SP once more on a neutral position but with not so much bullish signs, the index was not able to trade above the weekly high and still has some way to go to reach last Friday’s settlement that have not been reached during this week. However, as I mentioned yesterday, markets keep showing divergences between the Nasdaq and the SP, and yesterday’s highs on the Nasdaq looks like a top after this last bounce. So looking at the daily charts on the SP, we have a double bottom just above the 1261.00 area and we have last Friday’s high around 1292.00-1294.00 that remains intact. The extremely low volumes could make difficult for the SP to break this trading range, but once the breakout occurs, it could result in a strong move that last for a couple of weeks, if the breakout is to the upside, the index should reach 1320.00-1340.00, but if the weakness on the Nasdaq continues to press markets lower, then the SP should test levels below 1230.00.


With this lack of volume, normal for this period, and with the weakness on the Nasdaq and Dow, despite that the Dow has been able to hold above the lower trend line, selling the rallies should continue to offer the best trading opportunities even if the indexes keep trading side ways for the rest of the week, but the end of month “bullishness” should keep the markets from falling apart. So, for today’s trading session, keep in mind that if the Nasdaq support the SP by trading higher, reaching last week 1292.00-1294.00 area could be a good objective for the session, but if the SP trades in negative territory and the Nasdaq is weak, then 1270.00-1268.00 should be tested before the markets bounce holding on the current range.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance around yesterday’s highs at 1284.00-1285.25 on the E-mini SP, 1905.25-1907.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 732.80-734.30 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens if the indexes can not break above these areas, but if they succeed to break higher, a pop to 1288.00-1289.50 on the SP, 1912.00-1913.00 on the Nasdaq and 736.80-738.40 on the Russell could be seen before the indexes fail once more. However if those get broken, closing the open gap to last Friday’s highs at 1292.75-1293.50 on the SP, 1918.50-1920.00 on the Nasdaq and 741.30-742.00 on the Russell could be seen before the session is over.

There is support at 1280.25-1278.50 on the SP, 1899.00-1898.00 on the Nasdaq and 728.30-726.80 on the Russell. If those get broken, look for strong support at 1276.00-1274.25 on the SP, 1894.00-1892.00 on the Nasdaq and 723.50-722.10 on the Russell. If buyers do not step in there, the downside could get good momentum driving the indexes lower to 1271.00-1270.00 on the SP, 1883.50-1881.75 on the Nasdaq and 718.10-717.20 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1297.50-1299.25 1931.50-1933.00 745.00-746.30
Resistance 3 1292.75-1293.50 1918.50-1920.00 741.30-742.00
Resistance 2 1288.00-1289.50 1912.00-1913.00 736.80-738.40
Resistance 1 1284.00-1285.25 1905.50-1907.00 732.80-734.30
PIVOT 1277.50 1900.00 729.20
Support 1 1280.25-1278.50 1899.00-1898.00 728.30-726.80
Support 2 1276.00-1274.25 1894.00-1892.00 723.50-722.10
Support 3 1271.00-1270.00 1883.50-1881.75 718.10-717.20
Support 4 1266.00-1264.75 1870.00-1868.00 712.90-711.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1317.21 1972.32 761.89
1312.54 1964.18 758.11
1305.00 1951.00 752.00
1297.46 1937.82 745.89
1292.79 1929.68 742.11
1285.25 1916.50 736.00
1277.71 1903.32 729.89
1275.38 1899.25 728.00
1273.04 1895.18 726.11
1265.50 1882.00 720.00
1257.96 1868.82 713.89
1253.29 1860.68 710.11
1245.75 1847.50 704.00
1238.21 1834.32 697.89
1233.54 1826.18 694.11



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1293.50 1926.00 742.00
AS DAILY LOW 1273.75 1891.00 725.70​




Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-August-2008

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-August-2008


NEXT MONDAY MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY, FUTURES WILL CLOSE EARLY AND WE’LL PLACE OUR NEXT REPORT ON TUESDAY​


Stocks move higher as GDP revision signals economy is growing. Initial claims reported as expected.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
9:45 AM Chicago PMI
10:00 AM Michigan sentiment- rev.


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Stocks opened higher and never looked back. The E-mini SP opened at 1288.50 holding support at high levels and pushed higher testing previous highs at 1292.00. An initial pullback pushed the index down to 1288.00 where buyers stepped back in and the index moved once more to the early highs. After trading in a narrow range the SP finally made new marginal highs at 1293.50 and pulled back to 1289.00 Unable to break lower, the index finally pushed above last week highs reaching 1297.00 while the E-mini Nasdaq got as high as 1924.00. The lack of selling kept the markets near the highs boosted by lower crude oil prices and the classical end of month bullish bias. After making a marginal new high, the SP pulled back to 1293.75 following a mild “profit taking” on the Nasdaq but once more buyers stepped in driving the SP slowly to new daily highs printing the 1300.00 mark on the charts and pulling back a bit into the close while the Nasdaq sold off during the last minutes of the session. For the day, the SP was up 16.00 points closing at 1298.00, the Nasdaq closed 3.75 points up at 1905.50 and the Russell gained 13.70 points and settled at 745.00. The Dow posted a very strong session with a 212 points advance ending the session at 11715.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” However, as I mentioned yesterday, markets keep showing divergences between the Nasdaq and the SP, and yesterday’s highs on the Nasdaq looks like a top after this last bounce. So looking at the daily charts on the SP, we have a double bottom just above the 1261.00 area and we have last Friday’s high around 1292.00-1294.00 that remains intact. The extremely low volumes could make difficult for the SP to break this trading range, but once the breakout occurs, it could result in a strong move that last for a couple of weeks, if the breakout is to the upside, the index should reach 1320.00-1340.00, but if the weakness on the Nasdaq continues to press markets lower, then the SP should test levels below 1230.00.The end of month “bullishness” should keep the markets from falling apart. So, for today’s trading session, keep in mind that if the Nasdaq support the SP by trading higher, reaching last week 1292.00-1294.00 area could be a good objective for the session, but if the SP trades in negative territory and the Nasdaq is weak, then 1270.00-1268.00 should be tested before the markets bounce holding on the current range.”


Yesterday’ strong session on the SP and Dow has posted those indexes on a very strong position where further strength looks possible despite the weakness on the Nasdaq that keeps laying around support. Volumes are extremely low and today probably will be lower once the first part of the session is over as traders have already left for this long weekend. The fact that the SP closed above the 1291.00 area placed that index once more on its way to the 1320.00-1340.00 area which could be reached during the next few weeks while the Dow runs to the 12000-12100. But not everything looks so nice; the continuous weakness on the Nasdaq is a red flag that at some moment will press the SP to move lower. The trading conditions are very difficult at this period of the year, the ultra light volumes are typical during the last two weeks of August, but now volumes are even lower that the normal average and this keeps the fewer traders practically on the sidelines. The Nasdaq may give us the indication for the next big move, if yesterday’s highs get broken, getting much higher on the SP will be a question of days, but failing to hold above the 1880.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq will result in a fast and wide fall for the SP and Dow. The fact that the SP did not trade below my 1261.00 area is quite bullish and shorts will have troubles moving the index lower for more that a one day profit taking session.

Today’s trading session will be a result of the pre-opening and early data, with the markets showing bullishness higher prices could be seen if the numbers come out as expected, but the recent rally could also show some pullback in front of this holiday weekend. So early strength could be sold near the resistance levels, but breaking and holding above the 1300.00 area will indicate a pop to the 1310.50 area.

TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1300.25-1302.50 on the E-mini SP, 1908.50-1910.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 746.80-747.90on the E-mini Russell. A double top there on the SP could indicate some profit taking that could push that index back down to 1291.00. But if the markets keep showing strength, the rally could continue driving prices higher to 1305.50-1306.75 on the SP, 1915.75-1916.50 on the Nasdaq and 751.60-752.80 on the Russell. If the markets do not stop there then the old highs at 1311.25-1312.00 on the SP, 1922.00-1924.00 on the Nasdaq and 756.30-756.80 on the Russell will get visited in another strong session.

There is support at 1295.50-1293.75 on the SP, 1902.00-1900.50 on the Nasdaq and 743.00-741.80on the Russell. If those levels do not hold, in particular on the E-mini Nasdaq, markets should move lower testing 1291.00-1289.75 on the SP, 1896.00-1894.00 oin the Nasdaq and 739.40-738.30 on the Russell. Those levels are critical for sustained high prices during today’s session. If the markets do not react from there, then 1284.50-1283.00 on the SP, 1889.00-1887.25 on the Nasdaq and 733.70-732.20 could be seen before the session is over. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1315.50-1316.50 1931.50-1932.00 760.50-761.20
Resistance 3 1311.25-1312.00 1922.00-1924.00 756.30-756.80
Resistance 2 1305.50-1306.75 1915.75-1916.50 751.60-752.80
Resistance 1 1300.25-1302.50 1908.50-1910.00 746.80-747.90
PIVOT 1291.25 1906.75 740.00
Support 1 1295.50-1293.75 1902.00-1900.50 743.00-741.80
Support 2 1291.00-1289.75 1896.00-1894.00 739.40-738.30
Support 3 1284.50-1283.00 1889.00-1887.25 733.70-732.20
Support 4 1280.00-1279.00 1874.00-1872.00 730.00-729.70


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1339.64 1977.39 780.97
1333.86 1969.61 776.13
1324.50 1957.00 768.30
1315.14 1944.39 760.47
1309.36 1936.61 755.63
1300.00 1924.00 747.80
1290.64 1911.39 739.97
1287.75 1907.50 737.55
1284.86 1903.61 735.13
1275.50 1891.00 727.30
1266.14 1878.39 719.47
1260.36 1870.61 714.63
1251.00 1858.00 706.80
1241.64 1845.39 698.97
1235.86 1837.61 694.13



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1311.25 1931.25 756.70
AS DAILY LOW 1286.75 1898.25 736.20​






Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 02-September-2008


Lower than estimated Dell’s earnings, Personal Income lower than expected and a slower Consumer spending as inflation remains strong, resulted in a negative session for the US equity markets.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 29-August-2008

R3 1356.50
R2 1338.00
R1 1300.75
PP 1281.50
S1 1263.50
S2 1244.00
S3 1225.00

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index

WEEKLY RECAP

Markets started the week on a negative tone but manage to recover later on the week after holding key support levels. The E-mini SP started the week under strong pressure after rumors about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were on their way for a bail out. Regardless that both mortgage giants made early lows and rallied later, stocks plunged despite that the existing Home sales bounced from the previous month, however home prices continued to fall. The session was a disaster for those who held long positions from the previous Friday as all the indexes ended sharply lower. The E-mini SP lost 25.75 points closing at 1266.50, the Nasdaq lost 34.50 points at 1895.00, and the Russell gave back 16.30 points ending at 721.70. The Dow lost more than 2% closing the session at 11286 after losing 241 points. Tuesday’ session resulted in a consolidation of the previous day huge sell off. New Home sales came out better than expected and the Consumer Confidence report was higher than the previous months. The session was quite as low volumes, normal for this period of the year, kept traders on the sidelines. The FOMC minutes for the August 5th FED’s meeting indicated continue concern about growth and inflation but hinted that rates will stay lower for the coming months. The SP tested short term key support levels at the 1263.00-1261.00 band but managed to bounce into the end of the session as markets closed mixed for the session. The SP ended up 5.25 points at 1271.75, the Nasdaq lost 3.50 points at 1891.50 and the Russell added 2.20 points finishing the session at 723.90. The Dow ended higher by 26 points at 11412. Wednesday, the indexes made early lows and rallied strong into the end of the session. A better than expected Durable Orders report and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac trading higher for the third consecutive day pushed stock higher with the SP closing higher by 10.25 points at 1282.00, the Nasdaq recovering 20.25 points closing the session at 1901.75 and the E-mini Russell closing at 731.30, up 7.40 for the day. The Dow also closed higher by 89 points at 11502. The end of month strong bullishness continued into Thursday’s session as markets were pleased by the second quarter GDP revision despite that some analyst consider that number weak as a result of the inflation pressure. In addition, the weekly initial claims report was lower by the third consecutive week. The future indexes opened with a strong gap and never looked back. The E-mini SP traded at 1300.00 but the E-mini Nasdaq continued to show weakness and got sold into the end of the session, however the other indexes posted another strong session. The SP closed higher 16.00 points at 1298.00, the Nasdaq added 3.75 points at 1905.50 and the Russell gained 13.70 points and settled at 745.00. The Dow posted a very strong session with a 212 points advance ending the session at 11715. The party came to an end for Friday’s session, Dell’s lackluster 2Q report showing lower earnings and Consumer Spending and Personal Income also uninspiring numbers which showed additional pressure on the consumer resulted in a negative session. Markets opened lower and failed to trade on positive territory as pressure was present during all the session. Oil traded higher early in the morning as hurricane Gustav threatened the Golf refineries but ended almost unchanged for the day. The main indexes posted losses as the E-mini SP closed lower by 15.50 points at 1282.50, the Nasdaq sold off strongly losing 30.50 points and closing the session at 1875.00 and the Russell which keeps showing relative strength lost 5.10 points finishing the week at 739.90. The Dow lost 171 points and settled at 11543. The volumes were extremely low during the week.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets fall after disappointing economic data. The E-mini SP opened lower at 1293.50 pushing lower one point and bouncing to 1297.75 where the rally attempt failed to trade above Thursday’s settlement. Guided by the weakness on the E-mini Nasdaq, the indexes pushed lower with the SP testing the opening lows. The index bounced to 1294.50 where sellers stepped back in and pressed lower to new lows. After breaking below the 1291.00 intraday key supports, the SP pushed lower reaching 1286.75 while the weak Nasdaq reached 1873.00. Another rebound tested 1290.00 but the index failed to break higher and moved back down to the intraday lows. Once more the SP bounced to the 1290.00 level just to get sold once more pushing lower to 1284.00. After holding near the lows for almost an hour, the indexes bounced on a short covering rally, the SP reached 1291.75 and the Nasdaq 1885.00 where the rally stalled, the E-mini SP pulled back to 1288.00 holding on a narrow range just to move lower and make new lows into the end of the session. For the day the SP was down 15.50 points closing the session at 1282.50, the E-mini Nasdaq lost 30.50 points and settled at 1875.00 and the Russell gave back 5.10 points ending the session at 739.90. The Dow saw a very negative session losing 171 points ending the week at 11543.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” The fact that the SP closed above the 1291.00 area placed that index once more on its way to the 1320.00-1340.00 area which could be reached during the next few weeks while the Dow runs to the 12000-12100. But not everything looks so nice; the continuous weakness on the Nasdaq is a red flag that at some moment will press the SP to move lower. The trading conditions are very difficult at this period of the year, the ultra light volumes are typical during the last two weeks of August, but now volumes are even lower that the normal average and this keeps the fewer traders practically on the sidelines. The Nasdaq may give us the indication for the next big move, if yesterday’s highs get broken, getting much higher on the SP will be a question of days, but failing to hold above the 1880.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq will result in a fast and wide fall for the SP and Dow. The fact that the SP did not trade below my 1261.00 area is quite bullish and shorts will have troubles moving the index lower for more that a one day profit taking session. The recent rally could also show some pullback in front of this holiday weekend. So early strength could be sold near the resistance levels”


So once more the indexes have been rejected from key resistance areas with the SP closing once more below the 1291.00 level, the Dow failing for a second time at the 11700 area and this time, with the techs leading the way down. As traders returns from their summer vacations, volumes should start to get normal during this full of economic data week and the markets could finally show us some short term direction, or maybe just keep trading in their recent ranges. Last week 1263.00-1261.00 area on the SP should be tested once more, “IF” the E-mini Nasdaq breaks below Friday’s lows. If this happen, a new down leg could drive this index at least to the 1848.00 area and if that level do not hold, then support will be only found around the 1810.00-1800.00 levels which should coincide with 1248.00-1245.00 on the SP and 11100 on the Dow, only then we’ll know if the SP is headed for the 1180 level that should be a “good” low for October. However if the SP holds above the 1275.00 level during today’s trading session or manage to rebound from another test of the low 1260.00’s, then instead of another downside leg we could see a long term consolidation pattern with a struggling bullish bias that in the short term points to the 1320.00-1340.00 area on the SP and 12000-12100 on the Dow.

So, after Friday’s sell off it will be important for the indexes to move higher in order to maintain this short term uptrend, should lower crude oil prices help the markets moving higher in the short term? It seems a real possibility as indexes keep reacting to lower commodities prices, even that in the medium term this issue it is no so important.
For today’s trading session, it will be important for the Nasdaq to hold above Friday’s lows and for the SP to close once more above the 1291.00 level. Assuming that Friday’s sell off was trigger by the fear to be long on a long weekend, the indexes may be able to come back during today’s trading session if the short term trend is still up.
.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above Friday’s settlement at 1284.00-1285.50 on the E-mini SP, 1879.50-1882.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 741.70-742.70 on the E-mini Russell. If the market opens above those areas we could have another strong session that once it breaks above 1289.50-1291.00 on the SP, 1886.00-1888.00 on the Nasdaq and 745.30-745.80 on the Russell will place the indexes in a strong position. If that happens, look for the markets to reach 1294.00-1295.50 on the SP, 1895.00-189750 on the Nasdaq and 748.80-750.70 on the Russell before some selling comes into the markets. If those levels get exceeded look for the indexes to test once more last week highs before the session is over.

There is support at 1281.00-1279.50 on the E-mini SP, 1870.50-1868.75 on the Nasdaq and 738.10-737.20 on the E-mini Russell. If the indexes do not hold those levels, in particular on the Nasdaq, be ready for additional weakness that push down prices to the next levels at 1277.00-1276.50 on the SP, 1864.00-1863.00 on the Nasdaq and 735.10-734.40 on the Russell. Those areas are extremely important and should hold the first time the indexes get there, however, if buyers do not step in there look for additional weakness that push the indexes lower to 1272.00-1270.75 on the SP, 1859.00-1857.50 on the Nasdaq and 731.00-730.70 on the Russell before buyers jump strong in to the scene. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1300.75-1303.00 1910.00-1911.75 755.30-757.70
Resistance 3 1294.00-1295.50 1895.00-1897.50 748.80-750.70
Resistance 2 1289.50-1291.00 1886.00-1888.00 745.30-745.80
Resistance 1 1284.00-1285.50 1879.50-1882.00 741.70-742.70
PIVOT 1287.25 1883.50 740.70
Support 1 1281.00-1279.50 1870.50-1868.75 738.10-737.20
Support 2 1277.00-1276.50 1864.00-1863.00 735.10-734.40
Support 3 1272.00-1270.75 1859.00-1857.50 731.00-730.70
Support 4 1264.00-1262.50 1852.50-1851.50 727.70-726.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1324.70 1973.53 762.28
1320.80 1963.97 759.92
1314.50 1948.50 756.10
1308.20 1933.03 752.28
1304.30 1923.47 749.92
1298.00 1908.00 746.10
1291.70 1892.53 742.28
1289.75 1887.75 741.10
1287.80 1882.97 739.92
1281.50 1867.50 736.10
1275.20 1852.03 732.28
1271.30 1842.47 729.92
1265.00 1827.00 726.10
1258.70 1811.53 722.28
1254.80 1801.97 719.92



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1290.25 1891.50 743.00
AS DAILY LOW 1273.75 1851.00 733.00​




Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 03-September-2008

U.S. stocks indexes close lower reversing big gains after tech and energy sectors slide. ISM Index and Construction Spending showed additional contraction in the economy.


ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Factory Orders
12:00 AM Car Sales
12:00 AM Truck Sales
2:00 PM Fed’s Beige book


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets reversed huge gains despite lower crude oil prices. The indexes opened strong with the E-mini SP starting the session at 1297.00 and pushing higher during the first 15 minutes of the session reaching 1303.50 and the Nasdaq trading as high as 1915.00 where the rally run out of gas. A second attempt to make new daily highs failed as the Russell started to show weakness while the bonds were moving strongly to the upside. The E-mini SP pushed down to 1291.75 and the Nasdaq retreated to the 1890.00 level. A good bounce drove the SP back up to 1296.00 just to get sold with fierce and moving lower to the 1285.50 area. A feeble attempt to stabilize and move higher failed once more around 1288.00 and the markets continued to sell off, the SP tested 1276.00, bounced back to just below the 1280.00 area and pushed to new lows printing 1271.50 on the daily charts and bounced a few points into the end of the session. For the day, the SP closed lower at 6.00 points and settled at 1276.50, the Nasdaq which has been acting weak gave back another 23.25 points ending the session at 1851.75 and the Russell closed almost unchanged at 738.80, minus 1.10 points. The Dow reversed more than 300 points from its daily highs losing 26 points and closing the day at 11516.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” So once more the indexes have been rejected from key resistance areas with the SP closing once more below the 1291.00 level, the Dow failing for a second time at the 11700 area, with the techs leading the way down. As traders returns from their summer vacations, volumes should start to get normal during this full of economic data week and the markets could finally show us some short term direction, or maybe just keep trading in their recent ranges. Last week 1263.00-1261.00 area on the SP should be tested once more, “IF” the E-mini Nasdaq breaks below Friday’s lows. If this happen, a new down leg could drive this index at least to the 1848.00 area and if that level do not hold, then support will be only found around the 1810.00-1800.00 levels which should coincide with 1248.00-1245.00 on the SP and 11100 on the Dow, only then we’ll know if the SP is headed for the 1180 level that should be a “good” low for October. However if the SP holds above the 1275.00 level during today’s trading session or manage to rebound from another test of the low 1260.00’s, then instead of another downside leg we could see a long term consolidation pattern with a struggling bullish bias that in the short term points to the 1320.00-1340.00 area on the SP and 12000-12100 on the Dow. So, after Friday’s sell off it will be important for the indexes to move higher in order to maintain this short term uptrend, should lower crude oil prices help the markets moving higher in the short term? It seems a real possibility as indexes keep reacting to lower commodities prices, even that in the medium term this issue it is no so important.”

The day started with good news that resulted ion a huge opening rally that once more has failed at critical resistance levels and, once more, has pushed the indexes down near to their short term support areas, but, this time with a real possibility to break lower and go for a retest of the yearly lows. However, when we look at the daily charts we can see the indices stayed in the side ways patterns and they have not break yet the support and resistance areas indicating direction. Yesterday’s huge reversal and bearish close leaves the door open for additional weakness, the Nasdaq closed below the 1860.00 level, not good, the Dow and SP are close to their KEY support levels, that I assume will be tested once more and, maybe this time won’t hold, it seems that the fear factor will be back into the markets before we can see a sustainable rally. Yesterday outside day reversing form a double top does not look good on the charts, but because it was the first day that the indexes closed so weak it has not trigger yet a multi say sell off the has an objective to place a double bottom with the July lows around the 1180.00 area. So, it will be important to see what happens during today and tomorrow’s session, if we have some follow through leaded by the Nasdaq and the indexes continue to move lower breaking below the3 1260.00’s on the SP, or we have an inside day where yesterday’s wide range gets consolidated before the indexes try once more to move higher.

So for today’s trading session, it will be normal to see yesterday’s move consolidating, maybe with a marginal new low, but holding and offering trading opportunities in both sides of the market, this will be possible if the E-mini Nasdaq holds yesterday’s lows and the Dow can hold the 11450, otherwise, even if it is unusual to see two trend days on a row, we could have another sell off that brings panic back into the markets.
.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance at 1279.75-1282.00 on the E-mini SP, 1858.25-1860.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 741.10-743.00 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas acted like a wall on yesterday’s late attempt to move higher, so nothing good happens all the time that those levels remain intact, if the indexes trade above them some short covering could drive prices higher to 1285.00-1286.00 on the SP, 1865.00-1866.50 on the Nasdaq and 745.80-746.80 on the Russell. If the markets get there and the rally lose its momentum a great short opportunity could be sated up, however if traders push the indexes higher, another visit to the 1290.00’s could be seen with the SP reaching 1289.00-1290.50 and the Nasdaq and Russell trading at 1`871.00-1873.00 and 748.90-749.70 respectively.

There is support just above yesterday’s lows at 1273.50-1272.50 on the SP, 1848.00-1846.50 on the Nasdaq and 736.50-734.70 on the Russell. If the indexes test those levels, they probably will hold the first time they get reached, but if economic data disappoints, a false break that test lower levels at 1270.00-1269.00 on the SP, 1840.00-1838.50 on the Nasdaq and 732.80-731.00 on the Russell could be seen. If those levels hold, a good long entry can give us at least 8 SP points on the SP in a normal short covering rally. If those levels do not hold, then reaching the key support level on the SP at 1264.25-1263.00 and 1832.00-1830 on the Nasdaq could be a logical objective for today’s trading session. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1294.25-1296.00 1883.50-1887.25 752.80-754.00
Resistance 3 1289.00-1290.50 1871.00-1873.00 748.90-749.70
Resistance 2 1285.00-1286.00 1865.00-1866.50 745.80-746.80
Resistance 1 1279.75-1282.00 1858.25-1860.00 741.10-743.00
PIVOT 1283.75 1870.50 741.80
Support 1 1273.50-1272.50 1848.00-1846.25 736.50-734.70
Support 2 1270.00-1269.00 1840.00-1838.50 732.80-731.00
Support 3 1264.25-1263.00 1832.00-1830.00 728.00-727.20
Support 4 1258.50-1256.75 1825.25-1824.00 724.90-723.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1355.28 2029.88 796.84
1347.72 2013.12 790.86
1335.50 1986.00 781.20
1323.28 1958.88 771.54
1315.72 1942.12 765.56
1303.50 1915.00 755.90
1291.28 1887.88 746.24
1287.50 1879.50 743.25
1283.72 1871.12 740.26
1271.50 1844.00 730.60
1259.28 1816.88 720.94
1251.72 1800.12 714.96
1239.50 1773.00 705.30
1227.28 1745.88 695.64
1219.72 1729.12 689.66



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1290.00 1883.75 760.00
AS DAILY LOW 1258.00 1812.00 735.70





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 04-September-2008


U.S. markets close mixed as Factory orders came out better than expected and Car and truck sales slumps. Fed’s Beige book says that the economy slowed in most regions as inflation pressures rise.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:15 AM ADP Employment
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Productivity- rev.
10:00 AM ISM Services


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets consolidate the previous session huge reversal; the Nasdaq continued to move lower. After trading at 1268.50 during the Globex session, the E-mini SP opened slightly lower at 1275.00 and pushed down testing yesterday’s intraday lows at 1271.50 where buyers stepped in driving the index higher all the way to 1280.00, where our updated subscribers were ready to sell. The rally lost its momentum and the SP moved lower to 1273.00. Unable to make new lows, bounced back up to 1281.00 where sellers stepped back in pushing the index down to 1273.50. A third rally attempt failed at 1278.00 and the indexes get sold, the SP made its daily lows at 1265.25. After trading in a narrow range between the daily lows and 1269.00, the index finally broke higher reaching 1274.00 while the Nasdaq reached the c1840.00 level. Unable to press higher the indexes move down, the SP dropped near its lows as the Nasdaq made new intraday lows at 1821.75. Once the E-mini SP failed to make new lows, the indexes rallied in an erratic and low volume move into the close. The SP finished the session almost unchanged at 1275.25, the Nasdaq lost 17.50 closing the session at 1834.25 and the E-mini Russell which continue to hold strong added 3.10 and settled at 741.90. The Dow came back nicely from its daily lows closing the session on the positive side with a gain of 16 points at 11532.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Yesterday’s huge reversal and bearish close leaves the door open for additional weakness, the Nasdaq closed below the 1860.00 level, not good, the Dow and SP are close to their KEY support levels, that I assume will be tested once more and, maybe this time won’t hold, it seems that the fear factor will be back into the markets before we can see a sustainable rally. Yesterday outside day reversing form a double top does not look good on the charts, but because it was the first day that the indexes closed so weak it has not trigger yet a multi say sell off the has an objective to place a double bottom with the July lows around the 1180.00 area. So, it will be important to see what happens during today and tomorrow’s session, if we have some follow through leaded by the Nasdaq and the indexes continue to move lower breaking below the 1260.00’s on the SP, or we have an inside day where yesterday’s wide range gets consolidated before the indexes try once more to move higher. So for today’s trading session, it will be normal to see yesterday’s move consolidating, maybe with a marginal new low, but holding and offering trading opportunities in both sides of the market, this will be possible if the E-mini Nasdaq holds yesterday’s lows and the Dow can hold the 11450, otherwise, even if it is unusual to see two trend days on a row, we could have another sell off that brings panic back into the markets. There is resistance at 1279.75-1282.00 on the E-mini SP, 1858.25-1860.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 741.10-743.00 on the E-mini Russell. Those areas acted like a wall on yesterday’s late attempt to move higher, so nothing good happens all the time that those levels remain intact.”

The markets acted as expected, failed to break above our resistance areas but holding key support levels trading both sides of the range during yesterday’s session. The weakness on the Nasdaq may be near to the end if the markets will turn up and go for the expected test of the 1320.00-1340.00 on the SP, that is the normal pattern of trading, the index have moved down testing the KEY SUPPORT levels just above the 1260.00, if the countertrend move in this bear market will take place now, the SP should hold during today’s session, maybe in another consolidation day, and then rally for the next 8-11 sessions reaching the quoted upside objective before another downside strong move is seen. However, for this to happen, the E-mini Nasdaq will have to join the move or even with the strength on the Russell, the indexes finally will give up and move lower, if not to my expected 1180.00 area, at least to levels around 1230.00. Everything can happen during today’s trading session, another consolidation, some short covering in front of tomorrow’s unemployment figures or additional weakness that creates some panic for today and tomorrow. Under this uncertainty, assuming that the SP should continue to consolidate Tuesday’s reversal, trading both sides of the range sounds logic, and only if the index breaks yesterday’s range then going with the trend could be the easiest money to be done. On the Dow, things look more simple, 11550 on the upside and 11400 on the downside for the next directional move.

So, for today’s trading session trading yesterday’s range 1265.00-1281.00, selling near the highs and buying near the lows, with tight stops will be the way to go, unless the SP break outside this range.
.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is strong resistance just below yesterday’s highs at 1278.00-1279.50 on the E-mini SP, 1840.00-1841.25 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 744.20-745.60 on the E-mini Russell. Nothing good happens all the time that the indexes keep trading below those levels and stops may be building above them, so if finally the markets push above them, then they could reach 1282.50-1283.75 on the SP, 1845.50-1846.75 on the Nasdaq and 748.90-749.90 on the Russell. If those can not hold and the Russell keeps showing its muscles then the short covering should get the markets to 1288.50-1289.50 on the SP, 1853.00-1855.00 on the Nasdaq and 752.40-753.30 on the Russell. I don’t think that the markets will break higher as tomorrow’s unemployment data should keep the enthusiasm moderate.

There is support at 12732.50-1271.00 on the SP, 1830.00-1827.75 on the Nasdaq and 739.20-737.90 on the Russell. An early test of those areas that hold, could result in an uptrend session, so be ready to get long if the indexes trade back up above the pivot points, however if the indexes keep showing weakness another visit to yesterday’s lows mat be seen driving prices lower to 1266.50-1265.50 on the SP, 1823.00-1821.00 on the Nasdaq and 734.30-733.60 on the Russell. If those are not bided strongly, then the markets could be in serious problems as they move lower to the KEY SUPPORT levels at 1263.00-1261.50 on the SP, 1815.50-1813.00 on the Nasdaq and 731.00-729.90 on the Russell. Spending too much time below those levels could open the way for a bloody Friday after tomorrow’s unemployment numbers. GOOD LUCK.




TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1292.75-1293.50 1863.50-1865.25 756.00-757.70
Resistance 3 1288.50-1289.50 1853.00-1855.00 752.40-753.30
Resistance 2 1282.50-1283.75 1845.50-1846.75 748.90-749.90
Resistance 1 1278.00-1279.50 1840.00-1841.25 744.20-745.60
PIVOT 1273.75 1838.50 741.20
Support 1 1272.50-1271.00 1830.00-1827.75 739.20-737.90
Support 2 1266.50-1265.50 1823.00-1821.00 734.30-733.60
Support 3 1263.00-1261.50 1815.50-1813.00 731.00-729.90
Support 4 1258.00-1256.50 1802.00-1800.50 727.70-726.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1306.48 1920.58 771.82
1302.77 1911.67 768.38
1296.75 1897.25 762.80
1290.73 1882.83 757.22
1287.02 1873.92 753.78
1281.00 1859.50 748.20
1274.98 1845.08 742.62
1273.13 1840.63 740.90
1271.27 1836.17 739.18
1265.25 1821.75 733.60
1259.23 1807.33 728.02
1255.52 1798.42 724.58
1249.50 1784.00 719.00
1243.48 1769.58 713.42
1239.77 1760.67 709.98



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1278.00 1846.75 752.40
AS DAILY LOW 1262.25 1809.00 737.80​






Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 05-September-2008


Markets plummet more than 3% on retailers weakened demand and higher than expected Initial and Continuing jobless claims. ISM Services Index rose to 50.6, better than expected.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Average Workweek
8:30 AM Hourly Earnings
8:30 AM Unemployment Rate
8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

The U.S. markets opened lower and never looked back. The E-mini SP opened at 1265.75 and bounced to 1268.00 during the first minutes of the session after a test of the key support levels at 1263.00-1261.00. Another bounce to the 1268.00 level failed to break higher. Once the opening lows failed to hold the downside pressure, the carnage began. The E-mini SP sold off strongly reaching 1252.00 from where the index bounced a couple of points just to get sold reaching 1247.75. As the other indexes found support, the SP bounced back up to 1252.00 where it failed once more to create some upside momentum and pushed down strong to new lows testing the 1242.00 area. Another two point bounce resulted in another selling opportunity as the markets continued to collapse. The E-mini SP reached 1236.50 while the E-mini Nasdaq reached 1781.00 and the Dow plummet by more than 300 points making its intraday lows at 11190. Finally some short covering came into the markets pushing the SP to 1245.75 from where the index pulled back to 1240.50 bounced once more near the 1244.00 area and pushed lower to 1238.00. Once the E-mini Nasdaq made new daily lows, the SP pushed also down making new lows into the end of the session. For the day, the SP ended lower 39.00 points at 1236.25, the Nasdaq plunged 58.75 points ending the session at 1775.50 and the Russell lost 22.30 points and settled at 719.60. The Dow nose dived losing in the session 344 points closing the day at 11188.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The weakness on the Nasdaq may be near to the end if the markets will turn up and go for the expected test of the 1320.00-1340.00 on the SP, that is the normal pattern of trading, the index have moved down testing the KEY SUPPORT levels just above the 1260.00, if the countertrend move in this bear market will take place now, the SP should hold during today’s session, maybe in another consolidation day, and then rally for the next 8-11 sessions reaching the quoted upside objective before another downside strong move is seen. However, for this to happen, the E-mini Nasdaq will have to join the move or even with the strength on the Russell, the indexes finally will give up and move lower, if not to my expected 1180.00 area, at least to levels around 1230.00. Everything can happen during today’s trading session, another consolidation, some short covering in front of tomorrow’s unemployment figures or additional weakness that creates some panic for today and tomorrow. Under this uncertainty, assuming that the SP should continue to consolidate Tuesday’s reversal, trading both sides of the range sounds logic, and only if the index breaks yesterday’s range then going with the trend could be the easiest money to be done. On the Dow, things look more simple, 11550 on the upside and 11400 on the downside for the next directional move. So, for today’s trading session trading yesterday’s range 1265.00-1281.00, selling near the highs and buying near the lows, with tight stops will be the way to go, unless the SP break outside this range.”


Well, the markets finally broke and the indexes showed a “mini crash”. Once yesterday’s lows were broken and the Dow failed to hold 11400, the move was furious and fast with sellers pressing the indexes ending any bullish expectation. Yesterday’s collapse should be overdone and may already priced a “bad” jobs report that will be released today before the opening, however any long should be considered dangerous as the downtrend is very strong. The July 28th low at 1233.10 will have to hold or another panic sell off like the one we saw today, once the SP traded below the 1260.00’s could be seen. If that happens and the SP trades below that area without bouncing almost immediately, and the 11100 area on the Dow does not hold, testing the 1180.00 level that I have been mentioning on my newsletter will be seen before any short covering rally last more than a few hours. Yesterday’s huge fall will have to get consolidated if not today, then on Monday’s session, and, despite the fact that could be, that the bear campaign has resumed, the indexes should bounce for a 1-3 consolidation during the next 48 hours unless we are in a capitulation move that will break below the July 15 low.


For today’s trading session, who knows what will be the impact of the jobs market data, if it is already priced in yesterday’s sell off, the indexes should hold the Globex lows that at the moment that I am writing my report shows 1226.00 on the SP, if the initial reaction moves the SP lower for a successful test of this low, a good rally could drive the index back up to 1244.00 and the consolidated for a few days, however, if the Globex low gets broken by more than 5 points, then the 1200.00 area could be seen in a bloody Friday. Keep in mind that only if the SP trades above 1249.50 we could see yesterday’s late short running for cover. Any day trade should be done with very tight stops as swings could get wild.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance below yesterday’s late highs at 1240.00-1242.00 on the E-mini SP, 1781.00-1782.00 on the E-mini Nasdaq and 722.30-724.50 on the E-mini Russell. If those get exceeded, look for additional resistance at 1244.50-1245.25 on the SP, 1788.00-1789.50 on the Nasdaq and 727.40-728.00 on the Russell. Getting there will offer a great shorting opportunity, however if the market is strong, then testing the KEY resistance areas at 1249.75-1251.00 on the SP, 1804.50-1806.00 on the Nasdaq and 733.00-734.40 could be seen before the session is over. Trading above those levels will negate the short term collapse and place the indexes on their way to the 1261.00-1263.00 level on the SP before the selling resumes.

There is support at 1232.00-1230.50 on the SP, 1770.00-1768.25 on the Nasdaq and 717.10-716.00 on the Russell. Those will have to hold or we could see a melt down move, if that happens look for strong support at 1224.25-1222.50 on the SP, 1763.50-1761.50 on the Nasdaq and 713.00-711.50 on the Russell. Buyers should be standing in line to get in at those levels and the indexes should not spend too much time there, however, if those areas e not strongly bided look for the downside pressure to continue reaching 1216.00-1214.00 on the SP, 1754.25-1752.00 on the Nasdaq and 709.00-707.80 on the Russell. If the markets trade below those levels, the markets should continue in their capitulation move. GOOD LUCK.




TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1256.75-1258.00 1812.00-1814.00 737.00-738.20
Resistance 3 1249.75-1251.00 1804.50-1806.00 733.00-734.40
Resistance 2 1244.50-1245.25 1788.00-1790.50 727.40-728.00
Resistance 1 1240.00-1242.00 1781.00-1782.00 722.30-724.50
PIVOT 1249.50 1795.75 726.20
Support 1 1232.00-1230.50 1770.00-1768.25 717.10-716.00
Support 2 1224.25-1222.50 1763.50-1761.50 713.00-711.50
Support 3 1216.00-1214.00 1754.25-1752.00 709.00-707.80
Support 4 1207.50-1205.00 1740.00-1741.00 704.20-703.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1344.96 1936.32 788.97
1335.04 1921.68 782.33
1319.00 1898.00 771.60
1302.96 1874.32 760.87
1293.04 1859.68 754.23
1277.00 1836.00 743.50
1260.96 1812.32 732.77
1256.00 1805.00 729.45
1251.04 1797.68 726.13
1235.00 1774.00 715.40
1218.96 1750.32 704.67
1209.04 1735.68 698.03
1193.00 1712.00 687.30
1176.96 1688.32 676.57
1167.04 1673.68 669.93



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1256.75 1806.00 731.60
AS DAILY LOW 1214.75 1743.75 703.50​





Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 08-September-2008

Nonfarm payrolls lower by 84K and Unemployment rate jumping to 6.1% result in an early sell off in the U.S equity markets that finally reversed closing almost unchanged.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 12-September-2008

R3 1340.50
R2 1290.75
R1 1265.00
PP 1253.50
S1 1225.00
S2 1203.75
S3 1185.00

ECONOMIC DATA

3:00 PM Consumer Credit

WEEKLY RECAP

Markets started the holiday shorted week with a big upside gap that exhausted the last rally. Tuesday’s early action saw Crude oil prices falling $8, and new rumors about Lehman selling a stake to Korea Development bank. The ISM index came out below the 50 mark indicating additional contraction on the economy and Construction Spending was negative by .6, no bottom by the plummeting housing sectors. Early optimism resulted in a very strong opening for Tuesday’s session. However the early strength was reversed and the indexes sold off strongly during the rest of the session, the Down plunged 300 points from its daily high. For the day the SP closed lower by 6.00 points and settled at 1276.50, the Nasdaq continued to show weakness giving back 23.25 points closing the session at 1851.75 and the Russell closed almost unchanged at 738.80, minus 1.10 points. The Dow lost 26 points and closed the day at 11516. Wednesday’s session opening continued to show weakness but the previous day huge sell off resulted in a consolidating session for the U.S. markets, Factory Orders surprised to the upside after an increase of 1.6% for the previous month. Later in the session, the Fed released its Beige Book indicating worsening conditions for the economy in all the geographical regions. The indexes managed to close mixed for the day with the SP ending the session almost unchanged at 1275.75, the Nasdaq losing another 17.50 closing the session at 1834.25 and the E-mini Russell added 3.10 points and settled at 741.90. The Dow came back nicely from its daily lows closing the session on the positive side with a gain of 16 points at 11532. Thursday’s session was a blood bath as the indexes broke below critical support areas and posted their worst session in the last months falling more than 3%. The ADP employment data showed a loss of 33K jobs on the private sector and the Initial and Continuing claims reports were worst than expected, anticipating a bad jobless report. Productivity grew and the ISM index advanced reporting above the 50 mark at 50.6, take in account that the services sector counts for more than 80% of the economy activity. The session ended with huge losses, the SP lost 39.00 points at closing the day at 1236.25, the Nasdaq plunged 58.75 points ending the session at 1775.50 and the Russell lost 22.30 points and settled at 719.60. The Dow nose dived losing in the session 344 points closing the day at 11188. Additional weakness and volatility for Friday’s session was seen, as the job report came out worst than expected, the nonfarm payrolls fell by 84K during August and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.1%, the highest in the last 5 years. The day was destined to be another session of hefty losses until buyers came in the midsession offering support. The session closed mixed with the E-mini SP advancing 4.50 points and settling at 1241.00, the Nasdaq ended lower 5.75 points at 1770.00 and the Russell settled almost unchanged at 718.50. The Dow reversed its early losses finishing the session at 11220, up 32 points.



FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets recovered from early dip losses. After making a Globex low, before the release of the job reports at 1226.00, the E-mini SP fell to 1220.50 once the report got announced and managed to bounce back up to start the trading session at 1228.50. After rallying to 1234.00, the SP sold off strongly joined by all the other indexes. The SP reached 1216.50 while the E-mini Nasdaq printed its daily low at 1741.25. Once the weak longs get washed, the indexes rally, the SP moved up to 1232.50 and pulled back to 1226.25. Unable to break lower, buyers stepped in and the indexes rallied. The SP tested the opening 1234.00 area, pulled back to 1230.00 and in a struggling upside move got to 1236.00 another mild pullback held the selling pressure and the indexes rallied to new daily highs, the SP made it to our projected 1242.75 area while the Nasdaq reached 1780.50. As the last hour of trading started, the SP pulled once more to the 1236.00 level and rallied to new daily highs reaching 1245.25 before pulling back into the close. For the day, the SP ended higher by 4.50 points at 1241.00, the Nasdaq lost 5.75 points closing the session at 1770.00 and the E-mini Russell lost 1.20 points closing at 718.50. The Dow ended on the positive side at 11220, up 32 points for the day.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” Well, the markets finally broke and the indexes showed a “mini crash”. Once yesterday’s lows were broken and the Dow failed to hold 11400, the move was furious and fast with sellers pressing the indexes ending any bullish expectation. Yesterday’s collapse should be overdone and may already priced a “bad” jobs report that will be released today before the opening, however any long should be considered dangerous as the downtrend is very strong. The July 28th low at 1233.10 will have to hold or another panic sell off like the one we saw today, once the SP traded below the 1260.00’s could be seen. If that happens and the SP trades below that area without bouncing almost immediately, and the 11100 area on the Dow does not hold, testing the 1180.00 level that I have been mentioning on my newsletter will be seen before any short covering rally last more than a few hours. Yesterday’s huge fall will have to get consolidated if not today, then on Monday’s session, and, despite the fact that could be, that the bear campaign has resumed, the indexes should bounce for a 1-3 consolidation during the next 48 hours unless we are in a capitulation move that will break below the July 15 low.
For today’s trading session, who knows what will be the impact of the jobs market data, if it is already priced in yesterday’s sell off, the indexes should hold the Globex lows that at the moment that I am writing my report shows 1226.00 on the SP, if the initial reaction moves the SP lower for a successful test of this low, a good rally could drive the index back up to 1244.00 and the consolidated for a few days, however, if the Globex low gets broken by more than 5 points, then the 1200.00 area could be seen in a bloody Friday. Keep in mind that only if the SP trades above 1249.50 we could see yesterday’s late short running for cover. Any day trade should be done with very tight stops as swings could get wild.”


An interesting week for the futures markets where highs and lows got exhausted, the strong positive opening gap on Tuesday’s morning that resulted in a huge sell off that also exhausted its momentum after making early lows on Friday’s session closing the week in the SP just above the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement from the Friday’s low to the previous Tuesday’s high and the closing, at that exact Fibonacci number on the E-mini Nasdaq which fell during the week 180 points from its high to the Friday’s low.
The weekend news about the government taking fill control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sure will impact the markets, if it creates confidence, then the indexes could continue with their mid session Friday’s recovery and reach on the SP the 1264.00 area while the Dow gets back to the 11400 level, BUT, if the fact that the takeover will erase the common share holders assets could result in another strong drop on the U.S. equity indexes. The technical analysis calls for a continuation of late Friday’s consolidation move, a slightly bullish bias with a struggling uptrend that could last for a few sessions, until, the release of the retail sales figures that analysts expect to be negative for the first time in the last six months.

At the moment that I am continuing to write my Monday’s newsletter and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeover is already a fact, markets are climbing in an euphoria that who knows how many days or hours will last, as the rally is so huge making a forecast for today’s market behavior seems a bit silly, however, once tax payers realize the added debt that the government has given them besides their mortgage, credit cards and the car loan, thinks could get really ugly.

On my support and resistance calculations I have only adjusted the SP numbers to the current 1279.00 high and 1263.00 opening price, so please refer to my intraday updates for accurate calculations once the regular trading session kick off. Remember the importance of the 1264.00-1262.00 area to define markets direction and the key resistance levels at 1291.00 for a continuation of a strong countertrend rally that could reach the 1320.00-1340.00.

.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance just above Friday’s settlement at 1277.50-1278.50 on the E-mini SP, if that level gets exceeded by more than 3 points expect the rally to continue and reach 1283.00-1284.00 where some profit taking could be seen, but if the party continues, a test of 1289.00-1290.50 could be seen before traders decide to rake some profits.

There in strong support at 1267.00-1266.50, that must hold if the rally is for real, breaking below it will indicate that this nightly huge rally has failed and the SP could slide to 1257.50-1255.00. If that are can not hold a reversal the 1251.00-1249.75 levels should get the job done. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1299.00-1300.25 1796.00-1798.00 733.30-734.20
Resistance 3 1289.00-1290.50 1788.75-1790.00 728.30-729.40
Resistance 2 1283.00-1284.00 1781.00-1782.50 724.50-725.50
Resistance 1 1277.50-1278.50 1773.50-1775.50 720.30-721.80
PIVOT 1273.00 1764.00 714.30
Support 1 1267.00-1266.50 1763.50-1762.00 716.70-715.00
Support 2 1257..50-1255.00 1758.00-1756.25 713.00-711.50
Support 3 1251.00-1249.75 1748.00-1746.25 708.70-707.60
Support 4 1245.00-1243.50 1738.00-1735.50 703.50-702.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1291.77 1844.01 754.30
1284.98 1834.74 749.60
1274.00 1819.75 742.00
1263.02 1804.76 734.40
1256.23 1795.49 729.70
1245.25 1780.50 722.10
1234.27 1765.51 714.50
1230.88 1760.88 712.15
1227.48 1756.24 709.80
1216.50 1741.25 702.20
1205.52 1726.26 694.60
1198.73 1716.99 689.90
1187.75 1702.00 682.30
1176.77 1687.01 674.70
1169.98 1677.74 670.00



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1257.50 1775.25 720.30
AS DAILY LOW 1228.75 1736.00 700.40









Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 09-September-2008

U.S. Stocks rally on Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac takeovers on a volatile session.

ECONOMIC DATA

10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:00 AM Business Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS


Most of the equity indexes rally strong posting big gains. The E-mini SP started the day with a huge gap but below its nightly high. After trading at 1282.00 during the Globex session, the SP started the day at 1276.25 and got sold on a profit taking move since the beginning of the session leaded by the lagging Nasdaq. The SP reached its key support levels at 1263.50 and bounced back to 1271.75 where sellers stepped in strongly pushing the index down to 1251.00 where a “V” bottom resulted in a quick rally back up to 1265.50 where the move failed. Once more, shorts pushed the markets down driving the SP to its daily lows at 1246.75 while the Nasdaq that gave back all of its nightly gains traded with big losses and printed a low at 1735.25. The SP bounced all the way back to the 1259.50 area where a triple top resulted in another shot to the lows. The SP tested the 1247.75 and unable to made new lows rallied back to 1260.00 just to pull back to the 1251.00 area where a late rally drove the index up to 1270.50 and pulled back into the end of the session. For the day, the E-mini SP added 26.00 closing the session at 1267.00, the Nasdaq which once more is showing strong divergences lost 9.25 closing the session at 1760.75 and the E-mini Russell settled at 734.30, up 15.80 for the day. The Dow ended the session with huge gains after surging 290 points finishing at 11510.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” The weekend news about the government taking fill control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac sure will impact the markets, if it creates confidence, then the indexes could continue with their mid session Friday’s recovery and reach on the SP the 1264.00 area while the Dow gets back to the 11400 level, BUT, if the fact that the takeover will erase the common share holders assets could result in another strong drop on the U.S. equity indexes. The technical analysis calls for a continuation of late Friday’s consolidation move, a slightly bullish bias with a struggling uptrend that could last for a few sessions, until, the release of the retail sales figures that analysts expect to be negative for the first time in the last six months. At the moment that I am continuing to write my Monday’s newsletter and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac takeover is already a fact, markets are climbing in an euphoria that who knows how many days or hours will last, as the rally is so huge making a forecast for today’s market behavior seems a bit silly, however, once tax payers realize the added debt that the government has given them besides their mortgage, credit cards and the car loan, thinks could get really ugly. On my support and resistance calculations I have only adjusted the SP numbers to the current 1279.00 high and 1263.00 opening price, so please refer to my intraday updates for accurate calculations once the regular trading session kick off. Remember the importance of the 1264.00-1262.00 area to define markets direction and the key resistance levels at 1291.00 for a continuation of a strong countertrend rally that could reach the 1320.00-1340.00.”

Yesterday’s wild session has placed the SP on a neutral position that could result in a multi day consolidation between the 1282.00 Globex high and the 1245.00 area. This could last until next Thursday that the September contract will be rolling into December and then maybe on Friday as the retail figures get released move the index back down. However, yesterday weakness on the Nasdaq, its divergence compare to the other indexes, that has been happening during the last few months, has resulted in lower prices for the other indexes, but yesterday “outside day” on that index, that maybe placed a double bottom, also indicates that we could see a consolidation session.
I am not an economist, but I just can not understand the stupid euphoria on the markets after the U.S. government has double its deficit during the last week, this has to result in future shocks for the markets despite the fact that all the crap that the banks and brokerage firms are holding will be value as gold by the Fed, and that could result in additional strength for the financial sectors during the next few days.
This strong rally, that started last Friday, probably is a 1-4 days countertrend move in a falling market that in my opinion should reach the 1180.00 area on the SP during the coming weeks. However, multiple closes above my 1262.00-1264.00 area will negate that pattern and result in a move that drives the SP to the 1320.00-1340.00 levels before another sharp drop. Yesterday’s reaction to the upside, once the E-mini SP traded above the 1256.25 area, and then later above 1261.50 that resulted in a fast late rally give us the clues for today’s strategy, all the time that the SP keeps trading above 1261.00 will indicate higher prices, and a pullback to the 1256.50 area that holds will be bullish, only if the SP starts to trade below the 1256.25 will see a sharp sell off during today’s session, and of course, following the Nasdaq for market direction, has worked out well most of the time.

.


TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance just above Friday’s settlement at 1277.50-1278.50 on the E-mini SP, if that level gets exceeded by more than 3 points expect the rally to continue and reach 1283.00-1284.00 where some profit taking could be seen, but if the party continues, a test of 1289.00-1290.50 could be seen before traders decide to rake some profits.

There in strong support at 1267.00-1266.50, that must hold if the rally is for real, breaking below it will indicate that this nightly huge rally has failed and the SP could slide to 1257.50-1255.00. If that are can not hold a reversal the 1251.00-1249.75 levels should get the job done. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1299.00-1300.25 1796.00-1798.00 733.30-734.20
Resistance 3 1289.00-1290.50 1788.75-1790.00 728.30-729.40
Resistance 2 1283.00-1284.00 1781.00-1782.50 724.50-725.50
Resistance 1 1277.50-1278.50 1773.50-1775.50 720.30-721.80
PIVOT 1273.00 1764.00 714.30
Support 1 1267.00-1266.50 1763.50-1762.00 716.70-715.00
Support 2 1257..50-1255.00 1758.00-1756.25 713.00-711.50
Support 3 1251.00-1249.75 1748.00-1746.25 708.70-707.60
Support 4 1245.00-1243.50 1738.00-1735.50 703.50-702.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1291.77 1844.01 754.30
1284.98 1834.74 749.60
1274.00 1819.75 742.00
1263.02 1804.76 734.40
1256.23 1795.49 729.70
1245.25 1780.50 722.10
1234.27 1765.51 714.50
1230.88 1760.88 712.15
1227.48 1756.24 709.80
1216.50 1741.25 702.20
1205.52 1726.26 694.60
1198.73 1716.99 689.90
1187.75 1702.00 682.30
1176.77 1687.01 674.70
1169.98 1677.74 670.00



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1257.50 1775.25 720.30
AS DAILY LOW 1228.75 1736.00 700.40​






Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 11-September-2008


Stocks fluctuate as energy and tech stocks rebound.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM Import prices
8:30 AM Export prices
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Trade Balance
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

ROLLOVER DAY TO THE DECEMBER CONTRACT IS TODAY ES8Z, NQ8Z, YM8Z and ER28Z

YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

After making its daily high before the opening at 1241.00 the E-mini SP started the session at 1235.50 and get sold immediately as an early reaction to Lehman’s numbers, the SP reached 1228.50 and bounced back to 1238.00 where the short covering rally got out of steam. Unable to reach the nightly highs, the indexes pushed lower holding the previous lows. Another bounce that failed at 1234.00 invited seller to step in driving the indexes down strongly to their daily lows. The E-mini SP reached 1220.25, the Nasdaq tested the 1726.00 level and the Russell leaded the move pushing down to 705.30. the indexes did not spend too much time at the lows and rallied back up. The E-mini SP got to 1233.00 and traded in a sideways pattern during the next few hours. After testing multiple occasions the 1229.25 level, the SP pushed up to new intraday highs at 1235.50 pulled back to the support area and rallied to 1236.25. Once more the SP pulled back to the 1231.00 area and despite the fact that the Nasdaq traded below its intraday support, once it came back, the short covering rally got legs reaching 1244.75 on the SP and 1755.75 on the Nasdaq but failed to hold the gains and pulled back strongly during the last hour of the session. For the day, the E-mini SP ended higher by 6.75 points and closed at 1233.25, the Nasdaq added 8.75 points finishing the session at 1737.50 and the Russell closed t 716.80 with a 7.50 points gain. The Dow ended modestly higher at 11268 with a 38 points gain.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Yesterday’s sell off on the E-mini Nasdaq that settled prices below the July lows, will have to get reversed during today’s trading session or the risk to see the Nasdaq falling to 1665.00 during the coming sessions is for real. The sharp drop on the E-mini Russell which has not broken yet its strong support at 700.00, has posted a lower high on a short term triangle formation between 740.00 and 705.00, and probably will continue to build the pattern until a clear breakout occurs. The Dow should see strong support if it gets near the 11000 posting a double bottom there, and maybe will rally back up to 12000, or it will break lower and fall to 10700. And finally the SP, which also shows lower highs and higher lows on its daily chart, is testing the lower trend line of that triangle formation at 1220.00. Yesterday’s, lows will have to hold for the indexes to avoid a strong continuation pattern to the downside, and today, that in fact there is not any major economic report should give us the clues for the upcoming sessions. I personally favor a rebound from yesterday’s lows and a consolidation session as markets digest the last moves., no economic reports and tomorrow, the rolling from the September contract to the December contract may keep traders and institutions busy waiting for next Friday’s important retail sales data. So for today’s session the indexes may consolidate trading the SP between the 1245.50 on the upside and yesterday’s lows, the Nasdaq will have to trade strong above the 1748.00 are to have any chance to move higher.”


We came into yesterday’s session looking for the indexes to consolidate and to show a slightly bullish bias. The SP made a new marginal low but managed to hold rallying strong just to give sellers an opportunity to get short for the end of the session. Yesterday failure to close above the 1245.50 area on the SP, that is the previous low, is a call for a continuation of this sell off that started last Tuesday, if that happens the SP should be able, at least, to test the 1200.00 July low, and the way the index reaches that level will give us the clues, if the index will rally back to 1320.00-1340.00 or it will just get to the previous 1245.50 low. Today, the index could show another consolidation session with a bearish bias, or a strong down move that breaks below the 1220.00 area where the lower trend line is sitting, if that happens, in front of tomorrow important economic numbers, the index will have to hold the July 1200.00 area or my 1180.00 level on the SP will be reached. Yesterday’s lows are a key short term support for the rest of the week and the upcoming session, if they hold, the indexes will continue to build the triangle formation on the daily charts.

So for today, beware on any long entry all the time that the SP is trading below 1228.00 and obviously if it breaks the 1220.00 areas, but holding 1216.00 could result in a bounce. The Nasdaq MUST hold the 1738.00 to have a chance to rally and the Dow will have to hold the 11200 area or it will fall at least another 200 points.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1236.75-1238.50 on the E-mini SP, 1749.75-1752.00 on the Nasdaq and718.40-720.00 on the Russell. An early bounce to these levels will be a gift for short traders, but, if the markets are in good condition, then reaching 1241.00-1242.00 on the SP, 1760.75-1761.50 on the Nasdaq and 723.20-724.50 could be seen before sellers start to push down. If these areas exceeded, the last chance for the bears will be just above yesterday’s highs at 1246.50-1247.50 on the SP, 1768.00-1770.00 on the Nasdaq and 727.20-728.00 on the Russell. Trading above those levels will indicate a move to 1264.00 between today’s and tomorrow’s session.
.

There in support at 1232.00-1230.50, on the SP, 1738.75-1736.50 on the Nasdaq and 713.80-712.20 on the Russell. Those levels are important to maintain yesterday’s rebound, in particular on the E-mini Nasdaq, if they can not hold or the markets open below them look for some additional support at 1227.75-1226.50 on the SP, 1730.00-1736.50 on the Nasdaq and 707.80-707.10. If the indexes spend too much time below those levels, only 1222.00-1221.25 on the SP, 1716.00-1714.75 on the Nasdaq and 7093.70-702.50 on the Russell will give longs the possibility to maintain their positions. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1251.00-1252.00 1776.00-1778.00 732.70-733.50
Resistance 3 1246.50-1247.50 1768.00-1770.00 727.20-728.00
Resistance 2 1241.00-1242.00 1760.75-1761.50 723.20-724.50
Resistance 1 1236.75-1238.50 1749.75-1752.00 718.40-720.00
PIVOT 1234.00 1746.00 715.40
Support 1 1232.00-1230.50 1738.75-1736.50 713.80-712.20
Support 2 1227.75-1226.25 1730.00-1728.50 707.80-707.10
Support 3 1222.00-1221.25 1716.00-1714.75 703.70-702.50
Support 4 1213.00-1211.50 1708.00-1706.00 697.70-695.90



FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1284.33 1810.54 751.64
1278.67 1803.46 747.46
1269.50 1792.00 740.70
1260.33 1780.54 733.94
1254.67 1773.46 729.76
1245.50 1762.00 723.00
1236.33 1750.54 716.24
1233.50 1747.00 714.15
1230.67 1743.46 712.06
1221.50 1732.00 705.30
1212.33 1720.54 698.54
1206.67 1713.46 694.36
1197.50 1702.00 687.60
1188.33 1690.54 680.84
1182.67 1683.46 676.66



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1252.00 1768.00 729.80
AS DAILY LOW 1228.00 1738.00 712.10​







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 12-September-2008


U.S. Stock markets reversed from early lows on rumors that Lehman is looking for a buyer. Initial claims continued to rise.

ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Core PPI
8:30 AM Retail Sales
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto
10:00 AM Business Inventories
10:00 AM Michigan Sentiment-prel.


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

Markets posted a “V” bottom and rallied strong during the last hour of the session. After opening sharply lower, the E-mini SP found early support just at our calculated areas making its low at 1212.25 from where the index rallied back to 1224.00. The SP pulled back to 1216.00 where buyers jumped in pushing the index back up to our upside objective just below 1231.00. Another pullback to the 1224.00 area was met by buyers and the SP rallied strong reaching 1238.00 and guided by the strength on the Nasdaq. The rally lost its momentum and with continued volatility, the SP fell once more to t0 1224.00 where strong support was seen. The choppy action with bullish bias continued and the SP advanced to new highs testing the 1242.00 level from where it sold off to 1232.00 and rallied 20 points in the last hour of trading after rumors that Lehman Brothers was looking for a buyer, this move resulted ion a 200 points rally on the Dow during the last 45 minutes of the session. For the day, the SP ended with a 17.50 points gain and settled at 1252.00, the Nasdaq which showed a bullish divergence since the beginning of the session closed higher by 37.50 points at 1781.75 and the Russell closed up 2.80 points at 718.90. The Dow that made a 400 points reversal from its early lows settled at 11433, up 164 points for the session.

MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” We came into yesterday’s session looking for the indexes to consolidate and to show a slightly bullish bias. The SP made a new marginal low but managed to hold rallying strong just to give sellers an opportunity to get short for the end of the session. Yesterday failure to close above the 1245.50 area on the SP, that is the previous low, is a call for a continuation of this sell off that started last Tuesday, if that happens the SP should be able, at least, to test the 1200.00 July low, and the way the index reaches that level will give us the clues, if the index will rally back to 1320.00-1340.00 or it will just get to the previous 1245.50 low. Today, the index could show another consolidation session with a bearish bias, or a strong down move that breaks below the 1220.00 area where the lower trend line is sitting, if that happens, in front of tomorrow important economic numbers, the index will have to hold the July 1200.00 area or my 1180.00 level on the SP will be reached. Yesterday’s lows are a key short term support for the rest of the week and the upcoming session, if they hold, the indexes will continue to build the triangle formation on the daily charts. So for today, beware on any long entry all the time that the SP is trading below 1228.00 and obviously if it breaks the 1220.00 areas, but holding 1216.00 could result in a bounce. The Nasdaq MUST hold the 1738.00 to have a chance to rally and the Dow will have to hold the 11200 area or it will fall at least another 200 points.”

Markets conditions continue to be extremely volatile as the indexes have difficult to find a direction , yesterday’s bounce from below the 1220.00 area has posted a short term low, and if the rally continues, the 1264.00 area may be reached during today’s session. The fact that the SP did not spend too much time below the 1220.00 area must be considered mildly bullish in this long term consolidation that continues to build a triangle formation on the daily charts. Regarding to the Dow, the higher low seen during yesterday’s early hours and the vigorous rally, call for another test of the 11600 area before that index gets back in troubles. Yesterday’s important test of the lows could result, this time in a continuation of the rally and move the SP in a fast rally to much higher prices, however if today is a negative session, the July low will be broken during the next week. Yesterday “outside” day where higher highs and lower lows were posted could also result in a consolidation of the wide range session and only next week gets definitive market direction, however if yesterday’s rally is all that the markets can done, then the bearish trend will be intact.


The indexes ended the session on a strong uptrend and many sellers should be trapped at lower levels, so if today’s important economic reports show better than expected economic conditions, the short squeezing that started yesterday during the last hour of trading should continue, but if the data disappoints, expect more sideways action between yesterday’s highs and the 1230.00 level.



TODAY’S SESSION

There is resistance above yesterday’s highs at 1255.25-1256.50 on the E-mini SP, 1788.00-1790.00 on the Nasdaq and 721.10-723.30 on the Russell. If those levels are exceeded the rally should be able to continue with good momentum reaching the next levels at 1259.00-1260.25 on the SP, 1794.50-1796.25 on the Nasdaq and 725.50-726.20 on the Russell. If the rally stalls there, we could see a 7-8 points pullback on the SP, and if the trend is clearly bullish, it could result in a buying opportunity that drive prices higher to 1264.00-1265.50 on the SP, 1801.50-1803.00 on the Nasdaq and 728.70-730.00 on the Russell before the session is over, if those do not stop the bullish enthusiasm expect a melt up move tat could reach 1273.00 on the SP.
.
There is initial support at 1248.00-1247.00 on the SP, 1775.25-1773.50 on the Nasdaq and 716.00-714.50 on the Russell. If those hold during the first hour of the session, I will consider the chances of another strong rally during the day, but if they fail to hold, the indexes should move lower in a struggling move to 1244.00-1243.25 on the SP, 1768.00-1766.00 on the Nasdaq and 711.70-710.50 on the Russell. IF the pullback is due to further profit taking after yesterdays huge come back, then 1240.00-1238.50 on the SP, 1760.50-1758.75 on the Nasdaq and 705.60-704.20 on the Russell will have to hold or the 1230.00 level on the SP will be seen soon. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1273.50-1275.00 1818.00-1820.00 733.50-734.70
Resistance 3 1264.00-1265.50 1801.50-1803.00 728.70-730.00
Resistance 2 1259.00-1260.25 1794.50-1796.25 725.50-726.20
Resistance 1 1255.25-1256.50 1788.00-1790.00 721.10-723.30
PIVOT 1239.50 1759.25 713.70
Support 1 1248.00-1247.00 1775.25-1773.50 716.00-714.50
Support 2 1244.00-1243.25 1768.00-1766.00 711.70-710.50
Support 3 1240.00-1238.50 1760.50-1758.75 705.60-704.20
Support 4 1231.75-1229.50 1742.00-1740.50 696.90-698.10



S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1321.55 1897.32 761.83
1311.70 1880.68 756.17
1295.75 1853.75 747.00
1279.80 1826.82 737.83
1269.95 1810.18 732.17
1254.00 1783.25 723.00
1238.05 1756.32 713.83
1233.13 1748.00 711.00
1228.20 1739.68 708.17
1212.25 1712.75 699.00
1196.30 1685.82 689.83
1186.45 1669.18 684.17
1170.50 1642.25 675.00
1154.55 1615.32 665.83
1144.70 1598.68 660.17



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1273.00 1817.75 721.00
AS DAILY LOW 1232.25 1747.25 696.90








Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 15-September-2008


Stocks fluctuate on Retail sales slide, Producer prices down in August and Consumer sentiment jumps. Lehman’s sale must be closed before Sunday “without” any government funds.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 19-September-2008

R3 1323.00
R2 1290.50
R1 1271.00
PP 1251.50
S1 1235.50
S2 1219.50
S3 1180.00


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM NY Empire Index
9:15 AM Capacity Utilization
9:15 AM Industrial Production

WEEKLY RECAP

It was a wild week for the U.S. stock indexes Markets opened last Monday’s trading session with a huge upside gap as a result of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac take over by the government. However the daily highs were reached during the Globex session and the indexes traded in a volatile manner with huge swings, the E-mini SP which posted its nightly high at 1282.00, traded as low as 1246.75 during the regular trading hours session. For the day, the indexes closed mixed, the E-mini SP advanced 26.00 points and closed at 1267.00, the Nasdaq lost 9.25 closing the session at 1760.75 and the E-mini Russell settled at 734.30, up 15.80 for the day. The Dow ended the session with huge gains after surging 290 points finishing at 11510. Tuesday, the high volatility continued in a downtrend session where the previous day gains were totally erased. Pending Home sales reported another contraction, this time 3.2% and Business Inventories were up 1.4% indicating lower sales. Extreme financial weakness, this time Lehman brothers and lower prices for energy and materials related stocks pushed the indexes lower. The SP had one of its worst session as it tumbled 3.4%, for the day, the E-mini SP ended lower by 40.50 points at 1226.50, the Nasdaq lost 32.00 points ending the session at 1728.75 and the Russell gave back 25.00 points and settled at 709.30. The Dow sold off strongly losing 280 points ending the session at 11230. Wednesday’s trading session was a quite one; Lehman’s earnings report came out one week before schedule looking to calm investors after the previous day the stock lost almost half of its value; however the relief was short lived as skeptical share holders were not satisfied with its recapitalization plan. The session showed a consolidation of the previous day huge sell off and the stock indexes managed to keep the head above the water. The E-mini SP ended higher by 6.75 points and closed at 1233.25, the Nasdaq added 8.75 points finishing the session at 1737.50 and the Russell closed t 716.80 with a 7.50 points gain. The Dow ended modestly higher at 11268 with a 38 points gain. Volatility came back strong for Thursday’s session where huge early losses were reversed forcing short traders to cover. A mildly increase in weekly initial job claims and another cut by half of Lehman’s share price, drove the indexes for a sharp lower opening, the session was filled of wild swings and a late rumor about Lehman looking for a buyer before it has to go bankrupt boosted the indexes during the last hour of trading, in 45 minutes, the Dow gained more than 200 points rallying 400 points from its daily lows, and the SP surge more than 20 points in the last hour. For the session, solid gains were seen on all the indexes, the SP settled at 1252, up 17.50 points for the day, the Nasdaq which was bullish during all the session added 37.50 points and settled at 1781.25 and the Russell added 2.80 points closing the session at 718.90. The Dow came back very strong adding 164 points finishing the day at 11433. Friday session started with some profit taking after the economic reports showed a lower than expected CPI number and the Retail sales posted a non expected loss, Michigan Sentiment report that measures consumer confidence bounced more than expected. The early losses were reversed as rumors about Lehman plagued all the session. AIG was the big loser as its shares plunged 30% and could be a candidate for future “bailout” if the government continues to rescue Wall Street. The session ended with gains for the SP as short covering was seem in front of a possible sell of Lehman Brothers. The E-mini SP added 6.75v points closing at the daily highs, the Nasdaq closed almost unchanged and the Russell gained 4.80points. The Dow lost 11 points but closed above 11400 at 11421.




FRIDAY’S MARKETS

Markets fluctuate ending almost unchanged. The E-mini SP opened the session at 1240.00 and fell to test yesterday’s late lows. After testing the 1234.50 and unable to break lower, the index rallied strong and reaching 1246.75 from where it pulled back to 1240.75 just to be bough and push higher reaching the Globex highs at 1256.50 where the rally lost its steam. The SP pulled back to 1248.00 and traded on a side ways pattern between that low and the 1253.00 area. As the range narrowed, the indexes finally break lower, the SP moved down to 1240.75 from where it rallied back up to 1251.00 from where some profit taking was seen pushing the index back down to 1244.00. Markets held the selling attempt and bounced back. The SP reached once more the 1256.00 area, pulled back to 1246.25 and bounced back into the end of the session making new highs just at the close. The E-mini SP ended strong at 1258.75 with a 6.75 points gain, the Nasdaq ended with a I.75 point loss at 1780 and the Russell added 4.80 points and settled at 723.70. The Dow ended lower by 11 points at 11421.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Last Friday I wrote:” Markets conditions continue to be extremely volatile as the indexes have difficult to find a direction , yesterday’s bounce from below the 1220.00 area has posted a short term low, and if the rally continues, the 1264.00 area may be reached during today’s session. The fact that the SP did not spend too much time below the 1220.00 area must be considered mildly bullish in this long term consolidation that continues to build a triangle formation on the daily charts. Regarding to the Dow, the higher low seen during yesterday’s early hours and the vigorous rally, call for another test of the 11600 area before that index gets back in troubles. Yesterday’s important test of the lows could result, this time in a continuation of the rally and move the SP in a fast rally to much higher prices, however if today is a negative session, the July low will be broken during the next week. Yesterday “outside” day where higher highs and lower lows were posted could also result in a consolidation of the wide range session and only next week gets definitive market direction, however if yesterday’s rally is all that the markets can done, then the bearish trend will be intact.
The indexes ended the session on a strong uptrend and many sellers should be trapped at lower levels, so if today’s important economic reports show better than expected economic conditions, the short squeezing that started yesterday during the last hour of trading should continue, but if the data disappoints, expect more sideways action between yesterday’s highs and the 1230.00 level.”


Friday’s action tested the previous lows and managed to bounce in a weak manner just to end almost unchanged if we consider the last 4 points gain as pure short covering in front of an uncertain weekend and financial events, Merrill Lynch, Lehman and AIG, the good, the bad and the ugly, and of course the Fed, unable to give markets the confidence to return to a normal pattern of trend, makes a direction forecast as probable as throwing a coin to the air; however, last week lows around 1212.00 on the SP and Sunday’s night test of that level could result in early support until the markets assimilate the impact of the weekend events. The last rally that resulted in a bounce of more than 40 points on the SP, now that has been totally reversed during Sunday’s Globex session, if result in additional weakness will have an objective for that index to test the 1180.00-1160.00 area. Those numbers had appear in many of my past newsletter as a good objective if the trend is down, and they will be probable reached, unless the SP is capable to maintain the 1230.00 area on the close. So any bounce to that level should be considered a selling opportunity, stops? Wider than normal, only trading back above the 1242.00 area which was pivotal during the last two days of the past week could indicate that the “obvious” 1212.00 area on the SP has hold the selling pressure. A rally, it can happen, but markets uncertainty is obvious, and is doubtful that those conditions could change in the near term, although the indexes could continue to trade on a wide range sideways pattern.


This week is full of economic events, today’s digestion of the weekend financial events, tomorrows FOMC policy statement, inflation data and a few banks earnings reports, sure will give us a lot of emotion, like in a rollercoaster.


For today’s trading session, there are not low risk trades, as stops should be wide and swings probably will be wild and fast, so if you catch a move, take your profits and don’t overstay in your position, and, as I mention on the previous paragraph, selling bounces, first to the 1230.00 area, and then to 1242.00, should be the best set ups for today.

I won’t update my support and resistance numbers done with my normal calculations, but if the 1212.00 area gets broken down on the SP there is additional support at 1209.75, 1201.25 and 1192.75.
Take into account that a good day trader also has to recognize days where being a spectator are the best play.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 1230.00-1232.00, 1241.00-1242.00 and 1250.00-1253.00 on the SP.

There is support at last week lows, at 1212.00, then a false break that only touches 1209.75 could result in a good rally, however if that level can not hold the selling pressure, then a test of 1201.75 to 1200.00 is possible, if bulls can not defend that area, the index could fall fast to levels near the 1190.00. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1275.50-1277.00 1808.50-1810.50 738.00-739.70
Resistance 3 1271.50-1272.75 1799.00-1801.00 732.30-734.00
Resistance 2 1267.00-1268.00 1792.25-1794.00 728.40-729.60
Resistance 1 1263.00-1265.00 1784.00-1786.00 725.10-726.60
PIVOT 1250.75 1772.00 719.90
Support 1 1255.50-1254.00 1772.00-1770.50 720.80-719.40
Support 2 1251.00-1249.50 1764.00-1762.50 715.10-714.00
Support 3 1246.00-1244.00 1758.00-1756.50 711.40-709.80
Support 4 1241.50-1240.00 1748.25-1748.50 704.00-702.80


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1299.30 1844.25 751.04
1293.45 1835.75 747.36
1284.00 1822.00 741.40
1274.55 1808.25 735.44
1268.70 1799.75 731.76
1259.25 1786.00 725.80
1249.80 1772.25 719.84
1246.88 1768.00 718.00
1243.95 1763.75 716.16
1234.50 1750.00 710.20
1225.05 1736.25 704.24
1219.20 1727.75 700.56
1209.75 1714.00 694.60
1200.30 1700.25 688.64
1194.45 1691.75 684.96



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1271.25 1783.00 732.60
AS DAILY LOW 1246.50 1746.50 717.00​


Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 16-September-2008


Markets plummet on financial collapse. Lehman declares bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch gets sold. Washington Mutual downgraded and AIG near insolvency. NY Empire State Index down 7.4%.


ECONOMIC DATA

8:30 AM CPI
8:30 AM Core CPI
9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases
2:15 PM FOMC Policy Statement



YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

In its worst day since September 2001, the equity indexes closed with huge losses. The E-mini SP opened the session sharply lower at 1214.00 and after holding above the Globex lows rallied strong reaching 1225. The index pulled back to the 1216.00 area where a strong short covering rally pushed prices up to 1234.00. Once more the index retreated testing 1227.00 where a short covering rally took the index back up to its daily highs reaching 1239.50. The rally lost its steam and the SP pushed all the way down to 1219.00 where a double bottom resulted in another short covering rally that went up testing the 1234.00 area. Unable to reach the previous highs, the SP started to trade down. The index pushed down to 1216.00, bounced to 1226.00 and down traded all the way down to 1201.50. A late short covering rally reached 1215.75 where sellers stepped in pressing the SP to new lows just as the markets closed. For the day, the SP lost 62.50 points closing the session at 1196.00, the Nasdaq ended lower by 58.25 points and the E-mini Russell settled at 691.00 losing32.70 points in the session. The Dow lost 504 points closing the session at 10917.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Friday’s action tested the previous lows and managed to bounce in a weak manner just to end almost unchanged if we consider the last 4 points gain as pure short covering in front of an uncertain weekend and financial events, Merrill Lynch, Lehman and AIG, the good, the bad and the ugly, and of course the Fed, unable to give markets the confidence to return to a normal pattern of trend, makes a direction forecast as probable as throwing a coin to the air; however, last week lows around 1212.00 on the SP and Sunday’s night test of that level could result in early support until the markets assimilate the impact of the weekend events. The last rally that resulted in a bounce of more than 40 points on the SP, now that has been totally reversed during Sunday’s Globex session, if result in additional weakness will have an objective for that index to test the 1180.00-1160.00 area. Those numbers had appear in many of my past newsletter as a good objective if the trend is down, and they will be probable reached, unless the SP is capable to maintain the 1230.00 area on the close. So any bounce to that level should be considered a selling opportunity, stops? Wider than normal, only trading back above the 1242.00 area which was pivotal during the last two days of the past week could indicate that the “obvious” 1212.00 area on the SP has hold the selling pressure. A rally, it can happen, but markets uncertainty is obvious, and is doubtful that those conditions could change in the near term, although the indexes could continue to trade on a wide range sideways pattern. For today’s trading session, there are not low risk trades, as stops should be wide and swings probably will be wild and fast, so if you catch a move, take your profits and don’t overstay in your position, and, as I mention on the previous paragraph, selling bounces, first to the 1230.00 area, and then to 1242.00, should be the best set ups for today.”

Once the market opened and the short covering rally took prices up near my 1242.00 area, the way was obviously down, and the uncertainty and additional bad news have been pushing the indexes to new lows during the night reaching already my 1180.00-1160.00 area, at the moment that I am writing my report the low on the E-mini SP is at 1175.75. Markets are extremely nervous and anything can happen. We’ll get the consumer inflation data before the opening and later in the afternoon the Fed’s decision about rates, that if we’ll get a surprise, it can be announced even before the opening. Is there a risk of a crash or yesterday’s sell off was the capitulation that the markets need to start an upside move? If the markets would have posted the current Globex lows during the early session, I would be more confident that the way is up, however, I have always believe that Globex lows or highs get reached at some moment, if not during the next daily session, then later in the future. So if the nightly lows do not hold, we can expect the SP to test lower levels, maybe 6-8 points below my 1160.00 area and if that low holds, then a strong and decent rally could be on the way. But if the SP trades too much time below the 1160.00 level, then the melt down will continue and could test 1148.00 before the panic move ends and a multi day rally happens before the markets continue to move below my short term 1170.00-1160.00 objective ..

So for today’s trading session, the SP could see additional weakness pushing prices down a little bit below the 1170.00 area, but if that level holds, be ready for a furious rally. Later on the session, if the Fed waits until the afternoon to release the rate decision, remember that normally they are three different moves, the first reaction, its failure, and then a trend move, if you are lucky try to follow it 30 minutes after the news is out.



TODAY’S SESSION

Once the markets reach the unchanged levels, there is initial resistance at 120.200-1204.00 on the SP, 1728.00-1731.00 on the Nasdaq and 693.80-694.90 on the Russell, if those levels get tested and the markets fail to trade higher, a very good short could be placed there, but if the short covering rally push prices higher, expect the indexes to reach 1208.50-1210.00 on the SP, 1736.00-1737.50 on the nasdaq and 698.00-699.50 on the Russell. Those levels are KEY for market direction, so, if those do not stop the short covering rally, expect prices to move higher and maybe reach 1216.75-1218.00 on the SP, 1743.00-1744.00 on the Nasdaq and 704.10-705.00 on the Russell.

There is support at 1191.00-1190.00 on the SP, 1711.00-1709.25 on the Nasdaq and 688.20-686.80 on the Russell. If the markets open below those levels, expect strong resistance up there. If the tend is down look for the 1183.00-1181.25 on the SP, 1705.00-1703.00 on the Nasdaq and 674.00-672.50 on the Russell to offer some support, but if those do not hold, then a test of 1172.090-1171.00 on the SP, 1691.00-1689.00 on the Nasdaq and 674.00-672.50 on the Russell could be in the cards. If those do not hold the risk of a crash exist, but if the markets trade below them and then turn above, a very strong rally is on the way. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1225.00-1226.50 1751.50-1754.00 710.60-712.00
Resistance 3 1216.75-1218.00 1743.00-1744.00 704.10-705.00
Resistance 2 1208.50-1210.50 1736.00-1737.50 698.00-699.50
Resistance 1 1202.00-1204.00 1728.00-1731.00 693.80-694.90
PIVOT 1210.25 1733.00 699.10
Support 1 1191.00-1190.00 1711.00-1709.25 688.20-686.80
Support 2 1183.00-1181.25 1705.00-1703.00 681.50-679.00
Support 3 1172.00-1171.00 1691.00-1689.00 674.00-672.50
Support 4 1166.50-1164.00 1680.50-1678.75 668.00-667.20


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1303.57 1854.84 768.86
1294.18 1841.91 761.54
1279.00 1821.00 749.70
1263.82 1800.09 737.86
1254.43 1787.16 730.54
1239.25 1766.25 718.70
1224.07 1745.34 706.86
1219.38 1738.88 703.20
1214.68 1732.41 699.54
1199.50 1711.50 687.70
1184.32 1690.59 675.86
1174.93 1677.66 668.54
1159.75 1656.75 656.70
1144.57 1635.84 644.86
1135.18 1622.91 637.54



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1217.25 1743.75 704.90
AS DAILY LOW 1173.50 1689.00 673.60







Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com[/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE][/QUOTE]
 
Daily Trading Advisory

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 17-September-2008


AIG rescued by Federal Government, Fed leaves rates unchanged and CPI in line resulted in a rollercoaster session that finally recovered closing with gains.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM Housing Starts
10:35 AM Crude Inventories


YESTERDAY’S MARKETS

U.S. equity indexes recovered early losses and closed with gains. After trading as low as 1163.00 during the Globex session, the E-mini SP opened at 1168.00 and rallied all the way up to 1185.25. The index retreated to 1273.50 where buyers stepped in pushing the index back up to 1193.00. Another pullback to 1185.00 was bought and in a fast short covering rally the SP reached 1205.50 where the rally lost its steam. As quick as the index rallied, and with high volatility, the SP pulled back once more to the 1185.00 area. After holding intraday support, the index traded more quietly for the next hour and pushed up reaching once more the 1200.00 area. As the FOMC policy statement approached, the index traded sideways and waited for the rate decision at 1195.00. The release of the news resulted in selling pressure that drove the SP to 1177.00, traded in a narrow range the next few minutes, and as the Fed announced its reconsideration to help AIG rallied in a strong way testing the previous intraday highs at 1205.00. The SP pulled back to 1195.00 where a strong rally drove the index up to 1218.50 from where it pulled back once more to the previous highs at 1205.00 and rallied back up closing the session near the daily highs. For the day, the E-mini SP ended higher by 20.25 points and settled at 1216.25, the Nasdaq advanced 11.75 points ending the session at 1733.00 and the Russell gained 21.90 points and settled at 712.90. The Dow ended higher by 141 points finishing the session at 11059.




MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK

Yesterday I wrote:” Once the market opened and the short covering rally took prices up near my 1242.00 area, the way was obviously down, and the uncertainty and additional bad news have been pushing the indexes to new lows during the night reaching already my 1180.00-1160.00 area, at the moment that I am writing my report the low on the E-mini SP is at 1175.75. Markets are extremely nervous and anything can happen. We’ll get the consumer inflation data before the opening and later in the afternoon the Fed’s decision about rates, that if we’ll get a surprise, it can be announced even before the opening. Is there a risk of a crash or yesterday’s sell off was the capitulation that the markets need to start an upside move? If the markets would have posted the current Globex lows during the early session, I would be more confident that the way is up, however, I have always believe that Globex lows or highs get reached at some moment, if not during the next daily session, then later in the future. So if the nightly lows do not hold, we can expect the SP to test lower levels, maybe 6-8 points below my 1160.00 area and if that low holds, then a strong and decent rally could be on the way. But if the SP trades too much time below the 1160.00 level, then the melt down will continue and could test 1148.00 before the panic move ends and a multi day rally happens before the markets continue to move below my short term 1170.00-1160.00 objective .So for today’s trading session, the SP could see additional weakness pushing prices down a little bit below the 1170.00 area, but if that level holds, be ready for a furious rally. Later on the session, if the Fed waits until the afternoon to release the rate decision, remember that normally they are three different moves, the first reaction, its failure, and then a trend move, if you are lucky try to follow it 30 minutes after the news is out.”

The 1180.00-1160.00 area on the SP is extremely important and yesterday was proved. It will be highly bullish if during the next few weeks, the SP test those levels once more and hold, but if it happens to break below them, then another leg down will push this index down to 1090.00 and then to the 1050.00 level. This short covering rally that started yesterday from key support areas, could get extended, if it is a normal countertrend, for the next 2-4 days, but if has more strength than the one that I think, it could last into the end of the month, however, many times the move seen during the day that we have a rate decision, gets totally reversed during the next session, and yesterday, the Nasdaq did not convince me that its double bottom will hold, despite this situation, there are still a lot of shorts trapped at yesterday’s lows.

Yesterday early selling pressure can be considered a capitulation of this move down at our forecasted price band and exhausted the down trend; volumes were high during the selling and during the recovery, so this can be a temporary low. The first sign will be a close above the 1220.00 area, if that happens then we could rally for a few days and then fall, if the trend is still down.

This week has been wild and the ranges are overextended, so a consolidation of the last two days range could be seen during today’s trading session, so buying the deeps and selling the rallies could be a good idea for today.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance just at yesterday’s highs at 1219.50-1221.00 on the SP, 1739.75-1742.00 on the Nasdaq and 716.60-718.20 on the e-mini Russell, if those levels get exceeded look for more strength that could move the indexes up to 1226.00-1227.25 on the SP, 1749.50-1751.00 on the Nasdaq and 721.10-723.50 on the Russell. Those should offer strong resistance and if the session will show two side action, then a good short could be enter there. However if yesterday’s short covering continues, expect the index to test 1232.00-1234.00 on the SP, 1757.50-1759.50 on the Nasdaq and 727.00-728.10 on the Russell. Trading above those levels could have an objective of 1250.00 for Friday’s option expiration.


There is strong support at 1210.00-1209.00 on the SP, 1728.50-1727.25 on the Nasdaq and 709.20-708.00 on the Russell. If those do not hold a pullback, look for key support at yesterday’s late lows at 1205.00-1203.50 on the SP, 1723.00-1722.00 on the Nasdaq and 705.50-703.80 on the Russell, those are pivotal for today’s trading session. If the markets push lower, expect a test of 1200.00-1198.50 on the SP, 1715.00-1713.50 on the Nasdaq and 701.00-699.70 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.



TODAY’S SUPPORT, PIVOT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
Resistance 4 1238.50-1239.75 1765.00-1767.00 734.20-735.00
Resistance 3 1232.00-1234.00 1757.50-1759.50 727.00-728.10
Resistance 2 1226.00-1227.25 1749.50-1751.00 721.10-723.50
Resistance 1 1219.50-1221.00 1739.75-1742.50 716.60-718.20
PIVOT 1200.00 1723.75 701.00
Support 1 1210.50-1209.00 1728.50-1727.25 709.20-708.00
Support 2 1205.00-1203.50 1723.00-1722.00 705.50-703.80
Support 3 1200.00-1198.50 1715.00-1713.50 701.00-699.70
Support 4 1191.00-1189.50 1700.00-1698.50 692.00-690.50


S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
FIBONACCI FIBONACCI FIBONACCI
1314.84 1842.50 780.24
1301.16 1828.75 770.76
1279.00 1806.50 755.40
1256.84 1784.25 740.04
1243.16 1770.50 730.56
1221.00 1748.25 715.20
1198.84 1726.00 699.84
1192.00 1719.13 695.10
1185.16 1712.25 690.36
1163.00 1690.00 675.00
1140.84 1667.75 659.64
1127.16 1654.00 650.16
1105.00 1631.75 634.80
1082.84 1609.50 619.44
1069.16 1595.75 609.96



DAILY PROJECTIONS S&P NASDAQ RUSSELL
AS DAILY HIGH 1247.00 1769.75 734.20
AS DAILY LOW 1189.25 1711.00 694.00​

Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com
 
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