Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

WTI Falls As US Dollar Climbs

On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Fiscal Service announced that the Federal Budget Deficit, which registered at $192.6 billion in February, was at $108 billion in March, a little higher than the estimated level of $106.5 billion.

In addition, the price for Total US Imports for March marked the first increase in nearly a year, advancing 0.3% compared with the preceding month. Fuel imports rose 4.9% last month, trimming the continuing losses since June 2015. Meanwhile, the export prices in March recorded no change after falling 0.5% in February. In response to this report, the dollar index DXY today is edging up to 94.60. The market is awaiting retail sales and PPI data with optimistic expectations.

Today, China reported its overseas shipments in March rose by 11.5% in dollar terms, the fastest pace in a year. Besides, imports continued to decline for the 17th straight month, dropping 7.6% last month. The report further indicated that the second economy’s trade surplus slid to $29.9 billion, the least in a year. The reports points to evidence of stabilization in China’s economy.
Data on US crude oil inventories for the week ending April 08 is scheduled to release today, with an estimate of an increase of 0.9 million barrels in the inventories, after a drop of 4.9 million barrels the week before.

Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart
WTI Crude is in overbought territory, following the strong uptrend for a period of time. However, the price is pulling back after testing the resistance of 43.35, the highest level since November 2015. ADX (14) pointed down, indicating that the upward pressure is weakening. The commodity is expected to fall further, as the Parabolic SAR band is about to meet the price and proceed to hanging over the price chart, leading WTI towards a fall from here.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 41.328, Buy Digital Call Option at 42.215.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on April 14, 2016

Today, oil prices dropped significantly due to OPEC warning of low global demand, as well as speculation that there would be little concrete commitments at the producers’ meeting to be held Qatar on Sunday. As Russia hinted, the meeting is not likely to successfully freeze oil production at around 2 million barrels per day of crude in excess of demand.
With the expectation that the output freeze agreement between OPEC and Russia will not take effect, analysts are keeping track of the U.S. oil industry to figure out if a lower number of drillings will help control production and oversupply.
The dollar stayed firm on Thursday as the global sentiment improvement drove investors to pare bearish dollar positions. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.2 percent, after gaining around 1 percent yesterday. Whereas, the Euro went down about 0.1 percent from the six-month peak achieved on Tuesday.
Asian shares surged to the highest levels in more than four months. Also, regional currencies have been weakening against the US dollar after the Monetary Authority of Singapore said that it will set the Singapore Dollar to USD appreciation tolerance band at 0%.

Due to a recovery in the risk appetite of investors, the safe-haven assets like gold are weakening. On Wednesday, assets held by SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to the lowest level in a month at 810.09 tonnes.

Technicals

EURUSD

After spending time sideways, EURUSD tested the resistance of 1.14629 and tumbled into the oversold territory as RSI (14) reached 25.6326. ADX (14) has headed up and reached 53.7413, indicating that the downward pressure of the Parabolic SAR band is very strong. Selling positions are suggested as DI- is far higher than DI+.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.12068, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.12297.

USDCAD

The short-term EMA (7) has headed up and is about to hit the long-term EMA (14). The two EMA lines are crossing the price chart. If these lines move under the price, the upbeat view is confirmed. ADX (14) reversed and DI+ crossed DI- successfully. Thus the bear market may be expected to end and an upmove may occur.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.29381, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.29030.

AUDUSD

The Parabolic SAR band was separated from the price, after the resistance of 0.77149 was formed yesterday. However, RSI indicator is standing at 56.9386, implying that the downward pressure on the price from the SAR band above is rather weak. Aussie inched down against the buck for some correction and is currently heading back up. The pair is expected to retest the current resistance.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.76934, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.76684.

SILVER

The Stochastics chart shows that SILVER escaped from the overbought territory after diving into this zone for a period of time. The ascending trend seems weaker as ADX points down, the readings of DI+ and DI- now is 11.8649 and 21.3095, respectively. The selling position is encouraged as the parabolic are starting to appear above the price movement.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 15.735, Buy Digital Call Option at 15.846.

BRENT

After hitting the resistance of 44.91, the oil price is sliding and has escaped the overbought area. The SMAs met the price, and are preparing to hang over the price chart,implying that the bear is coming. However, RSI is currently at 57.6262, and thus the bull is still stronger than the bear. The commodity is anticipated to fall for some consolidation before bouncing back.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 42.75, Buy Digital Call Option at 43.17.

FTSE
The index is supported strongly by the SMA lines below, and a big gap up move. The Stochastics chart shows that FTSE has dived into the overbought zone. The %K line (blue line) has already reversed and crossed the %D line (red line). Therefore, the price is expected to pull back.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 6279.86, Buy Digital Call Option at 6318.30.

 

[Option_Banque]

Aussie Surges On Positive Economic Data

According to statistics from the Melbourne Institute, the expected inflation rate in Australia was reported at 3.6%, up 0.2 percentage points in April 2016. The data measures the expectations of consumers regarding changes in the price of goods and services during the next 12 months.
The number of Australian people employed during March was reported at 26,100, after witnessing a 0.7% decline the month before. Employment change is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a large part of the overall economic activity.
The unemployment rate was also announced at 5.7% after being forecast to come in at 5.9%, which is a good signal for the Australian dollar. Besides, the number of unemployed people dropped 7,300 to 723,100. The number of unemployed people looking for full-time work also declined by 7,900 to 515,900.
Analysts surveyed by the latest Reuters poll expect the Australian gross domestic product (GDP) to rise 2.6 percent this year. The country’s growth was forecast to come in at 2.9 percent in 2017.
In the US, the dollar stayed firmer on Thursday as investors were driven to pare the bearish dollar positions as global sentiment improves. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, inched up 0.2 percent, after gaining around 1 percent yesterday.
U.S. retail sales fell in March as households cut back on purchase of automobiles and other consumer goods. The data provided further evidence that US economic growth plunged in the first quarter of the year, which helps reinforce the caution on rate hikes exercised by the Federal Reserve.

Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart
The Aussie gained momentum against its US counterpart to reach as high as 0.76938. The EMA 10 has cut the EMA 50 and moved up, supporting AUDUSD to climb further. RSI is hovering around level 64 and heading to the oversold territory, indicating overwhelming buying power. The pair is expected to continue the uptrend, hitting the psychological resistance at 0.77240.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.77215, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.76885

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report April 15, 2016

At its meeting on Thursday, the Bank of England announced that the bank rate will be remained unchanged at 0.5%, its lowest level for seven years. The central bank also referred to a 2% inflation target. In comparison, the UK CPI inflation in the year to March 2016, just stood at 0.5%.
In the euro area, the annual inflation, which registered at -0.2% in February, was up to 0.0% in March, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Inflation excluding energy for March was at 1.0% on a yearly basis, compared with a reading of 0.6% in the same period last year.
The US core consumer price index (CPI) index, excluding food and fuel, inched up a little further by 0.1% in March, after consecutive gains of 0.3%, in the two preceding months. This reading dit not meet the forecast for a 0.2% increase. In the labour market, The Labor Department reported that the applications for unemployment benefits declined to 253,000 last week, down 13,000 versus the prior week, marking the lowest level since November 1973. The strong labor market helped firm up investors’ optimistic expectations at a time when the economy is not offering many clear and bright signals.
Statistics Canada released its new housing price index (NHPI) for February. It registered an increase of 0.2%, following an advance of 0.1% in January. On a yearly basis, the index has climbed 1.8%, showing positive growth.
In Asia, according to a calculation by the Wall Street, the China central bank sold 144.8 billion yuan of foreign exchange last month, raise the foreign-exchange reserves to $3.213 trillion, rising $10.26 billion from the end of February, thanks to the recent recovery of renminbi. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda stated that the yen has been strengthening excessively recently, market is eyeing for the central bank's next intervention, although it is not expected until after G20 meeting held this weekend.


Technicals
GBPCAD
The sterling has been falling continuously from the beginning of the year, especially after the two moving averages cut each other and contributed to a steep fall for the pair $GBPCAD. RSI is hovering around level 30, indicating that the pair is in the oversold territory. The price is anticipated to continue the downtrend for 1-2 days then witness a bound back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.86430, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.80370.

USDCHF
USDCHF extended the recovery from the support level 0.94912 and is now traded at 0.96808. ADX is staying above level 45, along with the DI+ moving above DI- and heading up, indicating a strengthening bull market. With the support of the short-term moving average below, the pair is expected to continue gaining and hit the resistance at 0.97854, formed on March 25.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.97854, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.96544.

EURJPY
EURJPY has been under strong downward pressure after the two moving averages met each other. The pair is now moving sideways with the RSI staying below level 45 and heading down, indicating strong selling power. The Euro is anticipated to continue the bearish trend against the Japanese Yen. The pair EURJPY may reach the oversold zone soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 122.046, Buy Digital Call Option at 123.309.

WTI
WTI has been gaining momentum from the around 35.44 and now is traded at 42.76, supported by the short-term moving average below. RSI is now at 67.70 and seems to be heading into overbought territory. The commodity is anticipated to continue going up and retest the resistance level at 49.81, created on August 31, 2015.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 43.81, Buy Digital Put Option at 41.07

DAX
DAX is now traded at 10034.44. The index has just escaped from the oversold territory with RSI hovering below 70 and heading down currently, suggesting pared buying power. Though the moving average is staying below the price movement, the price is expected to cover the gap formed on April 13, hitting the support level at 9746.49 soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 97746.49, Buy Digital Call Option at 10076.96.

COPPER
COPPER seems to be preparing for a strong downward move as the short-term EMA begins to creep above the price. ADX is now 25.96. And DI- is beginning to head up and move away from DI+, signaling that a strong bear market may be coming. The commodity is expected to go down and hit the support level at 2.0562, created on February 25.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0731, Buy Digital Put Option at 2.1724.

 

[Option_Banque]

Greenback Takes Off Ahead Of G20

The US Labor Department on Thursday announced that the cost of living in the nation (excluding food and fuel) came in below estimates, in March. According to the report, the core consumer price index (CPI), which gained 0.3% each month in January and February, rose just 0.1% last month. Forecasts by economists had predicted it to increase by 0.2%. The decline in core CPI is expected to contribute to a continued dovish stance on monetary policy, from Fed officials.
Yesterday, jobless claims for the week ended April 9 were reported to reach the lowest level since November 1973. Coming in at 253,000. they dropped by 13,000 versus the previous week. The positive data from labor market gives the economy some support to recover after the slowdown early this year. The WSJ dollar index (BUXX) which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, inched up 0.01% to 86.45 aheads of the G20 statement.
In Canada, the Statistics Office reported an increase of 0.2% in the new housing price index (NHPI) for February, extending the 0.1% advance in the month before and beating expectations of a 0.1% gain.
With the expectation that the output freeze agreement will not come into effect due to information that Iran’s oil minister won’t attend a key meeting of producers this weekend, oil prices are on track to fall further. The WTI was down to $42.22, sliding 0.78% from the previous close. The decline in oil prices cast a shadow on Canada’s economy.

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD is moving sideways lately after testing the support of 1.27418 two days before. ADX (14) is pointing down, registering at 20.5569. This indicates that the downtrend is weak. The pair is expected to reverse to uptrend as the DI+ is catching up the DI-. The buck seems stronger against the loonie as the SMA 21 (red line) just met and is about to cross the SMA 14 (green line).
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.29252, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.28612.

 

[Option_Banque]

BRENT CRASHES AFTER DOHA MEETING FALLS APART
On Monday, oil prices dipped significantly due to the failure of the meeting between major oil producers aiming to freeze production, held in Qatar last Sunday. The meeting failed because the top exporter Saudi Arabia demanded that Iran, the only OPEC member absent from the meeting, also needed to sign up to the agreement. The tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran has worried investors that the two largest producers may compete for market share by offering deep discounts, worsening the global glut unable with no solution in sight.
At the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s conference today, NY Fed President William Dudley indicated that current inflation may rise to the goal of 2% over the next few years, and the economy could warrant a normalization of the US monetary policy.
The Housing Market Index was reported at 58 after staying at 59 in March, indicating a favorable outlook on home sales. The data shows how respondents rate the current conditions and their future expectations from the “existing single-family homes” market.
Data released on Friday in China showed that in the first quarter of the year, the pace of growth in the economy was 6.7%, the lowest level since 2009. However, it was reported that the indicators of economic activity were stronger than predicted, indicating a gradual stabilization of the country’s economy. Specfically, industrial output, retail sales and exports were all strong. s
Brent crude prices dropped around 7% in early trading on Monday before gaining back to $41.70 per barrel, losing 3.35% compared with the last settlement. However, positive data about the US and Chinese economies may have helped the price to gain slightly for the rest of the session.

Fig. BRENT H4 Technical Chart
Brent prices dropped strongly from around 42.91 to below 40 after the Doha meeting yesterday. After hitting the oversold territory, the commodity seems to be recovering with the RSI hovering around level 50 and heading up, indicating increasingly stronger buying power. With the moving average supporting below, the price has moved up and covered the gap formed in the overnight session. It could hit the resistance level at 44.89, created on April 13.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 42.93 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 42.08 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report April 18, 2016

On Sunday, the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC ministers came to an end with no agreement on production levels. The output freeze plan fell apart mainly due to the reason that Saudi Arabia refused to join the deal unless Iran also agreed to limit its oil supply. Russian oil minister Novak expressed his disappointment as OPEC suppliers did not hold their position and also commented that the market may take about 6 months more to balance itself. After the failure of the Doha deal, oil prices plunged significantly, falling more than 6% in the opening hour in the Asian trading session.
The concluding joint statement from the G20 meeting on April 15 pointed out that global economic growth is still uncertain as there are no clear signals of a strong recovery despite the reduction in risks from geopolitics, terrorism and the refugee situation are on their way down.
The Empire state manufacturing survey released on Friday showed that the New York’s business activity is quite bustling as the headline general business conditions index reached its one-year peak at the reading of 9.6. The index for future conditions marked a third month of rises, indicating that prospects for the next six months are witnessing some brightening signals.
On April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s seasonally-adjusted gross domestic product (q/q) for the fourth quarter advanced 1.1%, the slowest pace since 2011. The Chinese economy grew 6.7% (annualized basis), in the first three months of 2016. This is lower than the growth of 6.8% for the preceding quarter.
Overnight, according to data realeased by Statistics New Zealand, the consumer price index (CPI) was up 0.2% in the first quarter this year, beating the 0.1% expectation. The core CPI (excluding cigarettes and tobacco) dropped 0.1%.

Technicals

EURJPY

EURJPY took pressure from the Parabolic SAR band above for a period of time, heading down to the support of 121.702. ADX (14) is pointing down, indicating that the downtrend is weakening. The distance between DI- and DI+ is shrinking, showing that the bull is coming. The pair is on track to rise with the assistance of the two dots below.A buying position is suggested if the DI+ passes the DI-.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 122.652 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 122.403 valid until April 22, 2016.

GBPUSD

The Stochastics chart shows that GBPUSD has dived into the oversold territory for a while and is now surging up from the support of 1.41278. The %K line (blue line) is above the %D line (red line) and has not turned down yet. The pair is expected to retest the resistance of 1.42414. The bullish market will be confirmed if the short-term EMA 10 crosses the long-term EMA 21.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.42031 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.41760 valid until April 22, 2016.

NZDUSD

The kiwi is overpowering the greenback, leading the pair NZDUSD into the overbought territory. The two SMA lines are now tending to move under the price chart,supporting the up-move. The uptrend is expected to continue. RSI (14) stands at 60.9421, implying that the bull is dominant, no signals for a pull back are visible yet.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.69316 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.69184 valid until April 22, 2016.

GOLD

After testing the support of 1223.74 on April 14, the precious metal is in a gradual uptrend. However, ADX (14) is pointing down and registering at 22.4527, which is quite a low level, indicating that the current trend is not strong. The two SMAs are crossing the price chart and the distance between them is small. Thus no clear direction is visible yet. The price is anticipated to move sideways in the short-term before attempting to climb up.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1238.89 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1235.83 valid until April 22, 2016.

COPPER

The commodity’s price is moving in an unidentified direction as the RSI reading is at 48.3933, near the average. The price is inching up from the support of 2.1267. However, the parabolic SAR is casting a shadow on the price chart from above. The price is expected to move sideways for a while and then rise up as the RSI (14) is heading upwards.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1486 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.1470 valid until April 22, 2016.

SP500

SP500 opened this week with a wide gap down, testing the oversold level with the support of 2063.52. The index is recovering and climbing back up and covering the gap. The EMA 10 (green line) is now below the EMA 20 (red line) and attempting to cross the long-term line. If the crossover happens, the uptrend will be confirmed.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2072.56 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2068.65 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on April 19, 2016

On April 18, the Fed member Dudley stated that the central bank continues to hold a cautious approach on the road to rate hikes, due to uncertainties in economic growth data, and the potential of financial complications in domestic and overseas markets.
The NAHB Housing Market Index released yesterday showed an unchanged level of 58 for the third straight month, implying that builders retain their optimistic expectations on growth in 2016.
According to a Statistics Canada report on Monday, foreign investment in the country’s securities for February registered at $15.9 billion, the highest level in over 6 months. Besides, following a net divestment from foreign securities worth $14.7 billion in January, Canadian investors added $4.4 billion of foreign securities to their holdings in February.
China initiated its own gold price fix on Tuesday with the ambition of running the global market. The Shanghai Gold Exchange this morning settled the daily price at 256.92 yuan a gram (equivalent to $1,233.85 an ounce).
In Australia, the monetary policy meeting minutes were released for the previous RBA Meeting. Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the possibility of a rate cut is still alive as the nation’s inflation still remains at a low level and the Aussie has been rising excessively.
Oil prices are trimming the losses and covering up on the gap created yesterday.WTI Crude climbed up to $41.83, about 1% higher than the open price.

Technicals
GBPJPY

The sterling is flying against the yen, supported by the parabolic SAR below, leading the pair GBPJPY to surge from the support of 152.495 formed yesterday. ADX is heading down and the distance between DI- and DI+ is also getting closer. A reversal of the downtrend is about to happen as the Parabolics are converging with the prices.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 157.011 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 156.722 valid until April 22, 2016.

USDCAD

Stochastics indicate that USDCAD is bouncing back from the oversold territory after diving into this zone for a period of time. The pair is inching up from the support of 1.27384, and is expected to rise further, and test the resistance of 1.27965. The SMA 5 (green line) has turned up and is about to cross the SMA 10 (red line), indicating that the bull is on the way.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.27500 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.27220 valid until April 22, 2016.

EURCHF

The two moving averages have been moving together and cutting each other, for a long time and also cutting the price chart, but showing no clear direction. RSI is now standing at 51.2339, implying that the pair may continue moving sideways in the short term with the current support and resistance at 1.08926 and 1.09257, respectively.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.09173 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.09118 valid until April 22, 2016.

SILVER

After moving sideways for a long time, the metal tested the resistance of 16.713 a few hours ago. The Stochastics chart shows that the commodity is approaching the overbought territory and the %K line (blue line) is tending to reverse and cross the %D line (red line). The price is anticipated to inch up a little due to the upward pressure from the parabolic SAR band below and then pull back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 16.702 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 16.578 valid until April 22, 2016.

WTI

Taking upside pressure from the parabolic SAR below, WTI is rising and covering the gap created yesterday. ADX registers at 29.1494, showing that the uptrend is quite strong. DI- and DI+ readings are 13.2023 and 32.0443 respectively. A buying position is suggested. However, the price may slide down for some consolidation before continuing to go up.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 41.98 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 41.47 valid until April 22, 2016.

FTSE

The index is pulling back from the overbought territory as shown in the stochastics chart. The %K line (blue line) is heading down and has not turned up yet. The price is predicted to reach the support of 6335.20 and reverse into an uptrend from there, as the two SMAs are lying under the price chart.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6391.43 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 6353.27 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

AUSSIE ROCKETS TO 10-MONTH HIGH ON OIL RECOVERY

On Tuesday, commodity-reliant currencies gained due to support from stable oil prices and returning risk appetite among investors. The Aussie rocketed to $0.7803 against the USD, the highest level in about 10 months, then continued to gain 0.6% on the day.
The oil price is supported by the current strike in Kuwait. The workers’ strike happening in Kuwait has cut the production of this OPEC member by nearly half, boosting investors’ appetite to take on risk and reversing the disappointment in the market after the failure of the Doha meeting on Sunday.
Thousands of workers in Kuwait Oil Company have stopped working since three days to express objections to the reforms in the public sector pay structure. This event has reduced oil production to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Yesterday, New York Fed President William Dudley, expressed views indicating an improving US economy. Yet the Fed has still remained cautious about another rate hike. However, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren expressed his view that Fed will raise interest rates more quickly than expected by investors.
In Australia, the CB Leading Index for February was released at -0.3% compared to -0.4% in January. The data combines the reading of 7 economic indicators related to money supply, building approvals, profits, exports, inventories, and interest rate spreads.
The market is awaiting the results of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the RBA for information about the decision on where to set interest rates.
AUDUSD
AUDUSD is on track to rise as high as 0.77887 after witnessing a significant drop due to the failure of the Doha meeting last week. RSI is now hovering around level 66, indicating strong buying power. The pair seems headed straight into the overbought territory with the support of the moving averages below. The price is anticipated to continue the uptrend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.77995 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.77678 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on April 20 2016

Today, oil workers in Kuwait ended their three-day strike, which had reduced the country’s oil production by almost a half. Oil prices dropped on Wednesday after witnessing a strong increase yesterday, with fears that the global oversupply will return. Also, the US stockpiles were reported rising last week, reinforcing worries about the oil glut among investors.
Brent crude futures went down to as low as $42.95 per barrel after hitting $44.03 yesterday. WTI crude also lost around 3%, or $1.10, at $39.98.
Views from Tokyo based Tyton Capital Advisors managing director Andrew Meredith, the Asian market was negatively affected after news that Kuwaiti workers ended the strike. However, the Nikkei is still on track to end in the green thanks to the yen's appreciation.
Indications suggest that the market sentiment now depends closely on the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting to be held on Thursday. In March, ECB Chief Mario Draghi’s announcement that there would be no further cut in interest rates has unintentionally boosted the Euro higher.
The recovery in Chinese factory activity, investment and household spending was reported in earlier data, offsetting the surge in new debt. Gold as well as other precious metals rallied on the optimism over Chinese economic conditions.
Technicals
EURUSD

EURUSD is falling from the resistance of 1.13843 formed yesterday, with pressure from the parabolics hanging above. ADX (14) is pointing down to the level of 20.0592, implying that the current uptrend is becoming weaker. The pair is anticipated to pull back for some consolidation before continuing to rise up, without breaking the current trend line.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.1375 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.1360 valid until April 22, 2016.

CADJPY

The stochastics chart shows that the pair had dived into the oversold territory for a period of time and is now bouncing back, escaping this zone. The two moving averages are sticking together and meeting the price chart. If short-term EMA 5 crosses over long-term EMA 10, the price will go up, and is expected to retest the current resistance of 85.505.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 85.505 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 85.995 valid until April 22, 2016.

GBPCHF

The parabolic SAR band has separated from the price chart, and is now lying above and casting a shadow on the price. ADX (14) registers at 32.9478, indicating that the uptrend is still strong. However, RSI hovers around the average, showing no clear direction. The pair is expected to move sideways for a while and then resume its trend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.37908 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.38365 valid until April 22, 2016.

GOLD

The precious metal plunged into the oversold territory. The %K line (blue line) has already reverse and attempting to cross the %D line (red line), implying that the price will reverse to uptrend soon. However, the SMA 7 (green line) is still staying under the SMA 14 (red line), refusing to cross. The commodity is forecast to head down to the support of 1243.04 and then surge up.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1243.04 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1250.91 valid until April 22, 2016.

BRENT

BRENT began today’s session by creating a big gap down. The price now is hovering around the level 38.2 of Fibonacci retracement. The %K line (blue line) is already above the %D line (red line), preparing to escape from the oversold area. The commodity is expected to climb up from the current Fibonacci level and cover the gap soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 42.66 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 43.65 valid until April 22, 2016.

NASDAQ

RSI’s reading is at 39.1973, indicating that the index is in a bearish market. After testing the resistance of 4592.24, the index edged down. The parabolics are casting a shadow on the price chart. The stochastics chart shows that NASDAQ just approached the oversold zone, and the price is expected to slide a little and then bounce back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 4511.36 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4538.11 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

STERLING GOES DOWN ON BREXIT WORRY

On Wednesday, the open letter signed by Democratic and Republican former secretaries including Timothy Geithner, Henry Paulson, etc, showed the view that the Brexit could be a risky step of Britain. According to this, Britain economy will go down seriously if the country leaves the European Union. Moreover, the role of London as a global financial center will be negatively affected, as well as inward looking into Britain will decline if this event occurs.
The Office for National Statistics in UK, released data on the change in prices that UK businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The change in prices was at 1.8%, down 0.3% compared with 2.1% in January.
The data also reported the UK Unemployment Rate in March unchanged at 5.1% compared with the data in February. The data measures the percentage of the work force that is currently unemployed and searching for jobs in the past three months. The rate of unemployment is a very important parameter of the economy due to its correlation with the labor market. The Unemployment rate also affects the monetary policy decision of policy makers.
Today, the end of the three-day strike by the National Oil Company, in Kuwait caused oil prices to witness a significant drop, reviving the bearish sentiment after the failure of the Doha meeting in freezing oil production.
The Crude Oil Inventories data from the US is due later tonight. It measures the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. It is expected to be 2.2 million barrels after being reported at 6.6 million barrels the week before.
GBP witnessed a slight drop against its US counterpart from around 1.43965 to as low as 1.43771. RSI is now hovering around level 57 and heading to the oversold territory, indicating that the buying power is weaker and weaker. Though the pair GBPUSD is supported by the short-term EMA below, the price is expected to go down, hitting the support level at 1.40536, created on January 21.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.40803 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.46798 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on April 21, 2016

The National Association of Realtors on Wednesday reported that total existing home sales(seasonally adjusted ), for March beat the forecast of 5.29 million, registering at 5.33 million, up 5.1% from the previous month. Sales in March 2016 increased slightly 1.5% compared with the reading of the corresponding month in 2015, bolstered by a rise in all major sections: single-family homes, town houses, condominiums and co-ops.
Germany’s producer prices index (PPI) for March (year on year) witnessed a fall of 3.1%. Capital goods and durable consumer goods increased 0.6% and 1.4% in prices, respectively. Meanwhile, the sharp price drops of 9.2% in energy, 2.3% in intermediate goods and 0.3% in non-durable consumer goods put downward pressure on the general PPI. After excluding energy, March’s core PPI for Germany’s economy was down 0.9% versus the reading for the same period last year.
The UK Office for National Statistics released data for the UK labor market on Tuesday. According to report, the employment rate in the first quarter of 2016 stood at 74.1%, the highest level since 1971. The unemployment stayed unchanged at 5.1% compared with the preceding period, and lower than the level of 5.6% in Q1 of 2015. Employees’ average earnings index (q/q) climbed up 2.2% (bonuses disregarded).
The Centre for European Economic Research yesterday announced that economic sentiment in Switzerland surged up to 11.5 points in April, much higher than the sentiment index in March. This means that investors have an optimistic view on the nation’s economic growth. However, a report today from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry FH, stated that its trade balance in March was down significantly to CHF 2.16 billion from CHF 4.02 billion in February. Exports in March were down from February’s record high to CHF 17.8 billion, weighing on the trade balance.
US crude oil inventories for the week ended April 15 were in line with the forecast, at 2.1 million barrels. Oil prices trimmed earlier losses and climbed higher on the expectation of a supply-cut.
In Japan, the yen is on its way down due to oil’s rally and hopes of BOJ’s next monetary policy stimulus. The Nikkei stock index closed the Asian trading session at 17,363.62, a two and one half month high.
Technicals
GBPUSD

GBPUSD is currently traded at 1.43456 after hitting the support at 1.43161. The sterling is on track to go up against the US dollar despite the pressure from the moving average above. RSI is staying around level 60 and heading to the overbought zone, signaling that the buying power is getting stronger. The price is expected to hit the resistance at 1.44085, created on April 19.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.43591 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.44149 valid until April 22, 2016.
EURJPY

In general, the Euro is in a downtrend against its Japanese Yen counterpart. RSI is now heading to the oversold zone, suggesting that the price may go down further. However, ADX is hovering at level 27 and heading down, indicating that the downtrend seems to be getting weaker. As DI- and DI+ are heading down together, the pair EURJPY may dim slightly then move sideways at around 122.570 for the next few trading sessions.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 122.570 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 123.753 valid until April 22, 2016.
USDCHF

After rocketing from around 0.96004. USDCHF retreated from the resistance level at 0.97321 and is now traded at 0.97087. RSI is now hovering around level 70 and seems to be heading up, indicating that the buying power is still very strong. The greenback is expected to continue its uptrend against the Swiss Franc despite the current bearish candle, retesting the strong resistance at 0.97321.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.96674 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.97075 valid until April 22, 2016.
WTI

Today, WTI witnessed a slight drop from the resistance level at 44.60 and is now traded at 44.28. The commodity has just pulled back from the overbought territory with RSI hovering around 66 and heading down. Though the short-term EMA is acting as a support below the price, the commodity may go down and test the support level at 42.53, formed on March 18.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 42.52 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 43.99 valid until April 22, 2016.
DAX

DAX is currently at 10448.71 after reaching the psychological resistance level at 10494.96. The index is now in overbought territory with the RSI staying at around 80, indicating that a strong downtrend is likely to occur soon. Despite the support of the moving average below, the price is anticipated to hit the support level at 10121.42, created on March 23.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 10121.42 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 10398.75 valid until April 22, 2016.
COPPER

Copper prices are moving downwards to 2.2428 from around 2.2653. RSI is now 64.5819 and heading down after escaping from overbought territory. Although the short-term moving average is moving below the price, the commodity is expected to witness a strong fall. The price may hit the support level at 2.2057, formed on April 1, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2.2057 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.2417 valid until April 22, 2016.

 

[Option_Banque]

Japanese Yen Falls On Expectations Of Further Monetary Easing

On Thursday, the Japanese Yen witnessed a weakening trend against its US counterpart due to the surge in oil prices and expectations that the Bank of Japan will further ease monetary policy by buying more ETFs invested in domestic shares. This helped Japanese stocks climb to the highest level in more than 2 months. The Nikkei continued the up-move to as high as 17,363.62, the highest level since February 3.
Yesterday, the Crude Oil Inventories data, which measures the number of crude barrels held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week, was report at 2.1 million barrels, down significantly compared with 6.6 million barrels the week before. Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stabilized market sentiment regarding oil prices by reporting that there would be a strong fall in the crude oil production of non-OPEC producers in 2016.
These events helped crude prices witness a surge today. Brent crude futures inched up 21 cents to $46.00 per barrel, while WTI crude futures witnessed a 17 cents gain at $44.35. Both of them are up 70% in value from their lowest level formed between January and February. However, investors still remain cautious about oil outlook due to the possibility that Russia and Iran may raise the amount of oil production, as the Russian oil minister stated today.
The market is awaiting the indications from the Fed policy review to be held on April 26-27 to get more information about its preparation for another rate hike. From the beginning of the year, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has repeatedly indicated the Fed’s cautious view in tightening policy this year.

USDJPY has witnessed a continuous drop from the resistance level at 113.799, and has since then been moving between the range of 107.638 and 110.007. The pair has retreated from around 109.955 and is now traded at 109.430, hovering around the zone of Fibo 38.2. With RSI staying at level 53 and heading down, the price is anticipated to hit the Fibo 23.6 area before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 109.107 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 109.430 valid until April 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on April 22, 2016

In the UK, the Britain's FTSE 100 index opened the session with a 32 point drop, or 0.5% on Friday. The UK blue chip closed at 6.381.44 on Thursday after the drop in miner Anglo American and media company Sky Group's shares.
The Japanese Yen fell to hit the lowest level in 2 weeks against the US dollar after a media report stated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may ease the monetary policy by expanding its current negative interest rates program. The BOJ is considering inclusion of negative interest rates into financial institutions' lending program, according to a report by Bloomberg on Friday. The depreciation of the Yen boosted the Nikkei to reach the highest level in more than 10 weeks, extending the weekly gain to 4.3%.
Oil prices gained today due to shrinking US crude oil inventories. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) announcement, non-OPEC producers may reduce their output in 2016, which helps relieve the concerns on a global oil glut. Brent crude futures witnessed a 1.28% advance of 57 cents, to as high as $45.10 per barrel compared with the last settlement. WTI crude gained 1.45% to $43.80 per barrel this morning.
Due to the surge of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen, gold and silver trimmed their gains on Friday but are still headed for weekly gains. Gold was trading at $1,244.80/ounce today, down 0.3% from the five-week high formed yesterday.
European shares opened lower on Friday due to losses in Asian equities and on Wall Street, after Alphabet and Microsoft announced disappointing earnings for the first quarter of the year. However, the FTSE index is still heading towards a second week of gains.

Technicals
GBPJPY

GBPJPY has been moving sideways around the area of Fibo 50.0 and is now at around 158.428. The pair has begun to surge strongly with the support of the short-term moving average below. RSI is now hovering around level 64 and heading up, indicating strong buying power. The price is expected to continue the solid uptrend, hitting the resistance at 162.568 before reversing.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 158.562 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 162.568 valid until April 22, 2016
AUDUSD

The Aussie retreated from the resistance level at around 0.77445 on April 21 against its US counterpart. RSI is now staying at 46 and heading into the oversold zone, signaling that the selling power is growing stronger. The downtrend in AUDUSD may continue with the pair testing the support at 0.77217 soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.77204 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.77437 valid until April 22, 2016
EURCHF

EURCHF witnessed significant gains to as high as 1.10132. RSI is now in the overbought territory and heading up, suggesting strong buying power. ADX is at level 44.9, combining with DI+ heading up and moving away from DI-, indicating that the bullish trend is very strong. The pair is supposed to retest the resistance at 1.10225, the highest level in more than a month.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.10150 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.10274 valid until April 22, 2016
GOLD

GOLD is now traded at 1249.00, after moving sideways between the range of 1241.78 and 1257.98. RSI is now hovering at above level 50 and heading up, indicating strong buying power. With the support of the short-term moving average below, the commodity is expected to retest the resistance level at 1262.90, formed on April 12, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1248.50 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1262.90 valid until April 22, 2016
BRENT

Brent is back on track to move higher.Its currently trading at 44.83 after reversing from the resistance area at 46.00. RSI is hovering around level 57 and heading up, indicating that the buying power is strong currently. The solid uptrend is anticipated to push the commodity into the overbought territory. The price may retest the resistance level at 46.00, created on April 21, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 44.97 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 46.00 valid until April 22, 2016
FTSE

In general, The FTSE is in a strong uptrend since February 2016. The index is currently at 6288.0, retreating from the resistance level at 6382.6 formed on April 20. RSI is now at level 47 and heading down, signaling a bearish market. With the pressure from the moving average above, the price is expected to test the support level at 6193.1.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6193.1 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 6276.0 valid until April 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Sterling Falls As ECB Indicates Low Rates To Stay

At the press conference yesterday, ECB President Mario Draghi announced that interest rates would stay at the current, record lows for a long time. This statement slapped the Euro hard, and EURUSD fell as low as $1.1270 from the 1-week highs of $1.1399.
The US dollar was supported by rising US Treasury yields, which hit a three-week high overnight due to the surge in oil prices and declining demand for safe-haven US bonds. The dollar index, which measures the currency’s strength against a basket of currencies, was flat in the early Asian session at 94.613, dropping 0.1 percent for the week.
Oil prices surged on Friday due to the decrease in US crude oil inventories, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) announcement that oil production will be reduced in 2016. These reports have helped relieve some of the worry on global oil oversupply.
On April 26-27, the Federal Reserve will hold its own policy review. The Fed is not expected to spring any major surprises. Investors expect that The Fed might use its policy statement to give the market some early hints regarding another rate hike as early as June.
Today, gold and silver pared their recent gains due to the stronger dollar against the Japanese yen. However, both metals were still heading for weekly gains.
The market is waiting for the results of the Euro Group meeting today for more information on the 19 EU member states’ financial and economic initiatives and policies, which can have a large impact on the economic health of the Eurozone.
EURUSD

EURUSD has been moving between the range of 1.12446 and 1.14624 since the beginning of the month. The pair is now hovering at 1.12248 with RSI staying at level 31 and heading into the oversold territory. With downward pressure from the moving average above, the price is expected to test the support level at 1.11367, formed on March 24, 2016.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.11367 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.12242 valid until April 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

All eyes on the fed as market attempts to predict future of interest rates

Last week, the market was disappointed after the Doha meeting held in Qatar failed to reach the agreement to freeze oil production. The meeting was not successful as the top producer Saudi Arabia required that Iran, the only OPEC member that was not represented in the meeting, also needed to sign up for the agreement. The tension between the two major oil exporters left investors worrying about the continuous oil glut with no solution insight.
Oil prices went up and down this week due to the effects of important events after the Doha meeting. Thousands of oil workers in Kuwaiti stopped working for three days to show their protest against the reforms in the public sector pay structure, reducing the production of this OPEC member nearly a half and supporting the oil prices to rise in short-term. However, after the strike ended, oil prices continued its downtrend as the bearish sentiment after the failure of the Doha meeting was revived. After that, sentiment was quickly reversed after the decrease in US crude oil inventories was released.
On Wednesday, Democratic and Republican former secretaries including Timothy Geithner, Henry Paulson, etc. signed in an open letter, expressing concerns that Britain’s economy could be seriously affected, and the role of London as the global financial center will be reconsidered if the Brexit occurs. The event immediately weighted on the sterling as investor’s risk sentiment returned.
At the post-meeting press conference of the European Central Bank on Thursday, ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the interest rate could be kept at the current record low for a long time, or even set to a lower level. This caused the Euro to fall strongly from the highest level in one week.
On Thursday, the number of people claiming unemployment insurance for the first time was at 247,000, 6.8% lower than the forecast. This was another another positive signal for the US economy, contributing to stabilize the US dollar.
Gold fell strongly on Friday, posting its second straight weekly loss. The surge of the dollar against the yen contributed to the fall. The Yen has fallen on speculation that the Bank of Japan was considering applying negative rates to its financial institution lending program.
In the upcoming week, the Federal Reserve policy review will be held on April 26-27, which is not expected to spring any major surprises. The market anticipates that Fed may use its policy statement to provide some hints regarding to the interest rate hike as early as June. The dollar may continue to be on defensive until the Fed conference results are reported.
The market is also watching out for a speech by Governor Stephen Poloz on Tuesday at the Investment Industry Association of Canada. As the head of the central bank, he has more influence on the Canadian currency than anyone else. For this reason, during his speech, the Loonie may be volatile, as investors try to interpret his statements for clues on the future path for Canadian interest clues.
In New Zealand, Trade Balance data for march is to be released. It is expected to come in at 405 million NZD surplus, up 19.4% compared with 339 million NZD, the month before. The expectation comes despite the slower growth rate in New Zealand’s services sector.
Due to the strengthening US labor market, the dollar is expected to gradually increase as long with the upward of the US real rates, which contributes to push gold down. For this reason, the bearish outlook on gold will be maintained among the market during the next week.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on April 25, 2016

At the meeting held on 21/04, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep the base rate at a record low of -0.25%, while the deposit rate at commercial banks of the ECB remained unchanged at -0.4%. The economic stimulus package showed no signs of abating as President Mario Draghi stressed last week that the ECB's Monthly Bond Purchase program will continue, with the amount of money pumped into the market up to 80 billion euros (90 billion dollars). However, the Eurozone inflation rate stayed at 0% in March, far away from the target of 2% inflation. It seems to be taking a long time for the ECB’s monetary easing to have an effect in the economy.
After the ECB meeting, the market is now looking towards the meetings of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) this week. Fed is expected to keep the interest rate at 0.25%, to deal with the sluggishness of the global and domestic economy at the meeting to be held on April 26-27. Senior officials of the bank have expressed their dovish view towards the rate hike road map, stating that the Fed will take cautious steps to stabilize the economy.
Meanwhile, many argued that at the policy conference this week, the BOJ is likely to maintain the current monetary easing policy to prevent deflation. Due to concerns that The BOJ will continue to cut interest rates, many speculators decided to sell the Yen, putting great downward pressure on the currency.
According to the Financial Times, China has been facing a huge public debt mountain, which is at a record high currently. Public Debt accounts for 237% of GDP as per Q1 2016 GDP levels. In just three months, new loans have increased 6,200 billion yuan (954 billion US dollar), pushing the total national debt to 163,000 billion yuan. Economists have warned that the second largest economy would continue to slip, due to sluggish growth, and may even face a financial crisis in the future.
Today, gold inched up to as high as $1,234.89/ounce after plummeting to $1,227.31/ounce towards the end of the previous week. Oil also fell by 1.5% compared to the closing price on Friday. It has been witnessing a continuous rise to $44.59 per barrel from around $38.99 per barrel levels over the past few trading sessions.

Technicals

USDJPY

After witnessing strong downward movement from the resistance at 113.799, USDJPY is currently supported by the short-term moving average below. RSI is now hovering around 68 and heading up, suggesting a bullish market. The price seems headed to the area of Fibonacci 61.8 at around 111.880 before dropping back.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 111.234 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 111.880 valid until April 29, 2016

EURGBP

EURGBP has been moving upwards lately, paring the losses since the beginning of April with the current price at 0.78002. RSI (14) has soared higher but still lingers under the 30 threshold. The price is about to cross over the moving average from below, indicating that the Euro is likely to go up against sterling and hit the resistance at 0.78804.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 0.78030 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78804 valid until April 29, 2016

USDCAD


The US dollar has been falling continuously against the Canadian dollar since January 2016. The pair USDCAD is in a strongly bearish market with the short-term moving average moving above the price. Despite that, the RSI is now at 35 and heading up, which signals that the price has just bounced from the oversold zone. The pair is expected to test the resistance level at 1.28310.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1.27182 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.28310 valid until April 29, 2016

COPPER

Copper is hovering around the zone of Fibonacci 61.8 at about 2.2495 after witnessing continuous gains from the support at 2.0735. RSI is now at level 55 and heading down, indicating that the strength of the bull market has been pared. The commodity is anticipated to hit the Fibonacci retracement level of 50.0 (2.1975) before pulling back and continuing the up move.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1975 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2.2490 valid until April 29, 2016

WTI

WTI is currently traded at 43.32. It has retreated from the resistance at 44.62 with the pressure of the moving average above. RSI is now hovering around level 51, indicating no clear direction in the market currently. The price is anticipated to move sideways for some time, before testing the support level at 42.56, formed on March 18.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 42.56 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 43.32 valid until April 29, 2016

NASDAQ

NASDAQ has pulled back from the resistance at around 4586.09, the highest level of this month. RSI has just escaped the oversold territory at above level 30. The downtrend is still very strong as seen in the RSI heading down, which may push the index back to the oversold zone again. The price is expected to retest the support at 4424.51, formed on April 12.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 4424.51 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 4453.25 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold gains ahead of central bank meetings

Gold inched up on Monday as the dollar gave up some of its recent gains as investors locked in profits ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting. Also in play are expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will further extend its aggressive monetary easing through negative interest rates.
The Fed is expected to hold the interest rate steady at the meeting this week. However, investors will be looking at the central bank’s view on the state of the global economy and its monetary policy outlook . This outlook will help formulate views on the path of future rate hikes.
Despite a rise in the number of created jobs and consumer prices, weak retail sales and international trade, as well as the concerns regarding the Chinese economy, have made the Fed cautious regarding another rate hike this year.
The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 94.931.
Oil prices were down significantly today as traders took profits after three weeks of gains. Front-month Brent crude dropped 31 cents from the last settlement to $44.80. WTI witnessed 44 cents down per barrel to as low as $43.29 per barrels.
Japan’s central bank is likely to cut its inflation forecasts on Thursday. It may also discuss if a strong yen, weak global demand and consumption, have had a strong enough impact on inflation expectations to announce another stimulus package. This anticipation has been putting a strong downward pressure on the Japanese Yen.
GOLD
Gold continues to gain from around 1226.45 with the short-term moving average beginning to move to below the price. RSI is now hovering around level 50 and heading up, indicating that the buying power is strong. ADX is above 21, along with the DI+ crossing above DI-, suggesting a bullish trend. The commodity is expected to retest the resistance area at 1243.89, formed on March 30.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1226.45 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1244.17 valid until April 29, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

US Dollar Plunges Before Widely Expected Fed Outcome

The dollar has been down today due to expectations that The Fed will keep its interest rate unchanged at the policy meeting starting today. One of the factors that The Fed will focus on is the sluggishness of the labor market to estimate how much the economy needs to grow without triggering inflation.
The US dollar index, which measures the strength of the currency against a basket of currencies was at 94.579, down 0.21% from the early session levels of around 94.767.
The number of US workers without a diploma/degree has gained 46.2% in the six months to March. Whereas, the number of those who have college degrees has remained unchanged. This may be a sign that the US economy is still recovering from the recession.
Crude futures gained on Tuesday on the back of a weaker dollar, and hopes for a reduction in the global oil glut. However, the rally was curbed by concerns over the intensifying battle for market share between two large oil producers – Saudi Arabia and Iran. Brent crude was trading at $44.75 per barrel, up 0.83% compared with the opening price.
The market is awaiting the speech from Bank of Canada (BOC) Governor Stephen Poloz at the Canada-US Securities Summit today, for more information regarding future monetary policy. The Canadian dollar is expected to witness volatility during the speech as traders try to infer interest rate hints in the speech.
USDCAD
The US dollar has been falling continuously against its Canadian dollar counterpart from 1.48891, the highest level for the USDCAD in more than 3 months. The DI- (green line) seems to be moving away from DI+ (red line), signaling that the selling trend is continuing with increasing strength. With RSI hovering around 30 and heading down, the pair is expected to plummet into the oversold zone soon.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.12475 valid until April 22, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.26573 valid until April 22, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily report on April 26, 2016

The Japanese Yen bounced back from its lowest level in three weeks due to uncertainty on Bank of Japan’s stimulus package at the policy meeting on April 27-28. Thanks to a strengthened currency, Japanese stocks went down, as the profit outlook for domestic exporters dims with an appreciating Yen.
Chinese market sentiment gained stream in afternoon trading on Tuesday, led by the rally in healthcare and real estate shares, which helped offset the negative impact of falling commodity prices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6% to 2,964.70, compared to yesterday’s settlement.
In the US, the rising number of less-educated workers returning to the workforce highlighted the negative strains in the economy. In particular, the number of workers without high school degrees, aged 25 and older, that have jobs or are looking for one, has reached 46.2% in the six months to March. Meanwhile the proportion of those with diplomas remained steady. The situation helps reinforce market expectations that The Fed will leave its interest rate on hold at the 2 day meeting this week, pushing the greenback up.
Gold pared its gains on Tuesday in spite of the decline in the U.S Dollar and equities, as investors are cautious ahead of the policy meetings of the BOJ and the US Federal Reserve this week.
Crude oil futures plunged today on the back of concerns about rising tension between two large oil exporters - Saudi Arabia and Iran. Front-month Brent crude futures dropped 11 cents from their last settlement to as low as $44.37 per barrel, while WTI crude futures lost 12 cents to $42.52 per barrel.

Technicals
EURUSD

After testing the support of 1.12147, EURUSD is rising gradually and entering a bullish market as indicated by a reading 65.6288 on the RSI (14). ADX (14) is heading up to 27.0349 with DI+ higher than DI-, implying strengthened upward pressure. The next resistance to test is 1.13092.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.12763 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.13092 valid until April 29, 2016

USDCHF

DI+ is fluctuating around DI-, giving no clear suggestion. The uptrend is getting weaker as ADX (14) has lowered to 21.7112. The Greenback is anticipated to stabilize against the Swiss Franc for a while. This may cause USDCHF to move sideways around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. After that, the price may climb up and break the level 0, to return to the current trend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.97537 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.97703 valid until April 29, 2016

CADJPY

The two moving averages have been sticking together for a period of time, indicating no clear direction for the pair CADJPY. Dropping from the resistance of 88.351, the pair is now hovering between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. The price is forecast to test the Fibonacci 38.2% (around 87.239) as a support and then climb back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 87.239 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 87.712 valid until April 29, 2016

GOLD

GOLD is on its way down, coming under pressure from the parabolics above. However, with the RSI (14) indicator registering near the average at 45.21, no clear signals are visible yet. The precious metal seems to be moving in a narrow range in the short term. It may possibly test the resistance of 1247.73.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1234.56 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 1247.73 valid until April 29, 2016

BRENT

BRENT is in a flat trend with the current support and resistance readings at 44.13 and 45.43, respectively. ADX (14) is now at 13.7434, confirming no clear direction. The price is expected to continue fluctuating in the current range for several hours before creating a new trend.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 45.04 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 44.72 valid until April 29, 2016

SP500

The Stochastics chart shows that the index skyrocketed into overbought territory and is now pulling back from this area. The %K line just reversed and crossed over the %D line, giving signals of the bear coming in. The index is expected to dip further from the resistance of 2096.19.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2084.18 valid until April 29, 2016
Buy Digital Put Option at 2091.04 valid until April 29, 2016