daily market outlook

[jebat66]

Global macro analysis for 20/04/2016:

Yesterday's Kuwait oil workers strike against wage and job cuts was terminated after mutual agreement. Moreover, the workers agreed to return the output to pre-strike levels which would be around 1.5 million barrels a day. As a result, oil production is now likely to remain high. This could put crude oil prices under serious pressure once again. The weekend meeting in Doha was a failure as well, especially if we take into account that after that meeting Russia reported to be looking to increase output and exports (together with Saudi Arabia). In conclusion, the whole situation looks like the beginning of a share war and every country is now looking for the best for themselves, so this might push the prices lower in the mid-term.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of crude oil in the 4H time frame. The weekend gap was filled and market was capped at the 78%Fibo at the level of 41.38. Moreover, the golden trend line was tested from the downside and now it looks like the market is ready for sell-off.

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 20/04/2016:

Five impulsive waves to the upside might be labeled from the 121.71 bottom, which as well might be a first impulsive bullish trend rebound. Nevertheless, it is still too early to draw this kind of the conclusion as the market retraced only 38% of the previous swing down. Currently some kind of the internal corrective cycle should develop and the support at 123.59 should hold in case of a further spike down.

Support/Resistance:

121.27 - WS1

122.63 - Weekly Pivot

123.12 - WR1

123.59 - Intraday Support

124.21 - Technical Resistance

124.43 - Intraday Resistance

124.48 - WR2

124.98 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders from last week should now be closed with profit. Traders should now stay aside from the market and wait for the next trading setup to occur shortly.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: It is safe to assume that the Bullish Confirmation Pattern was formed in this market. The EMA 11 has just crossed the EMA 56 to the upside and the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. Further northwards movement is expected on this pair this week.

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF: This pair corrected lower this week. However, the correction is not significant enough to cause a "sell" signal in the market, for the EMA 11 did not cross the EMA 56 to the upside. The Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. These are mixed signals. The indicators on the 4-hour chart could reach an agreement before the end of this week.

 

[jebat66]

GBP/USD: From the accumulation territory at 1.4150, the GBP/USD pair went up by 250 pips. Now, it is testing the distribution territory at 1.4400. There is a clear Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the distribution territory might be broken to the upside as the price goes further upwards towards another distribution territories at 1.4450 and 1.4500.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY: Just like the EUR/JPY pair and most other JPY pairs, the USD/JPY pair has been making attempts to go upwards since the beginning of this week (whereas the bias is bearish). Further northwards movement could threaten the bearish bias, while a correction would reinforce it.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways at the price of 1.6226. The pivotal point at 1.6270 held successfully and I would like to see a valid breakout of 1.6270 to confirm further upward continuation. If the price breaks the level of 1.6270 in a high volume, we may see potential testing of 1.6470. According to the 5M time frame, I found successful testing of supply, which is a sign that selling looks risky. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6250

R2: 1.6285

R3: 1.6350

Support levels:

S1: 1.6120

S2: 1.6080

S3: 1.6020

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for a potential breakout of a pivotal point at the price of 1.6270. The valid breakout will confirm further upward continuation.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: This market went bearish on Wednesday – just in the opposite direction with USD/CHF which moved upwards that day. The bearish movement of the EUR/USD pair was not that significant. Therefore, the market cannot be really bearish unless the price goes below the support line at 1.1200, which will require a strong selling pressure

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF pair broke upwards by over 100 pips yesterday, causing a new bullish signal to form in the market. There is now an attractive bullish confirmation pattern on the 4-hour chart. Right now, the price is above the support level at 0.9700, and it can reach the resistance levels at 0.9750 and 0.9800 before the end of this week

 

[jebat66]

GBP/USD: This trading instrument merely consolidated on Wednesday as the price stayed between the accumulation territory at 1.4350 and the distribution territory at 1.4400 - all in the context of an uptrend. Further northwards movement is expected which is likely to come in form of a breakout today. The bulls may easily push the price towards the distribution territory at 1.4450. Some fundamental figures are expected today and they would have impact on the market.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY: This pair was able to continue the bullish movement it started at the beginning of this week. The price has moved upwards by 180 pips, threatening to the recent bearish outlook on the pair, and further bullish movement by 100 pips will result in an invalidation of the recent bearish outlook, for the EMA 11 would have crossed the EMA 56 to the upside by then. The RSI with the period 14 is already above the level 50.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/JPY: It is rational to say there is now a "buy" signal on this cross. The EMA 11 has crossed the EMA 56 to the upside and the RSI with the period 14 has crossed the level 50 to the upside. Thus, the price can continue going upwards, attaining the supply levels at 124.50 and 125.00.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair moved from its bottom at 0.9505 and continued rising towards the top of 0.9720. Today, on the four-hours chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9750, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below strong resistance level of 0.9750 (the level of 0.9750 coincides with strong resistance). Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the USD/CHF pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.9730 - 0.9750. Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.9750 with the first target at 0.6440. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.6440, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 0.9570 in order to test the daily support 2. Also, it should be noted that the double bottom is seen at the price of 0.9509.

Intraday key levels:

Resistance 3:0.9901
Resistance 2:0.9840
Resistance 1:0.9750
Pivot Point:0.9695
Support 1:0.9640
Support 2:0.9570
Support 3:0.9509

 

[jebat66]

GBP/NZD is steadily moving lower and at this point no obvious signs of reversal are presented. Price broke below the strong support near 2.0600 and currently it is retesting it.

At the same spot, GBP/NZD rejected the downtrend trend line once. It may retest and reject it once again. Consider selling upon the breakout of the today's low at 2.0530, targeting 2.0300 psychological support level that corresponds with the lower trend line of the descending channel.

Support: 2.0300

Resistance: 2.0600

 

[jebat66]

After finding a bottom near 82.00, CAD/JPY started to move higher. Yesterday's broke above the ascending channel suggests that the uptrend is likely to continue.

Price rejected the channel breakout point (50% Fibonacci - S1) once and now it could be rejecting it again. Consider buying while the rate is near S1 (86.60) with the stop loss below S2 (85.80) or on the breakout of the 87.00 psychological resistance level. There are several targets ahead R1 (87.40), R2 (88.40), and R3 (90.10).

Support: 85.80, 86.60

Resistance: 87.40, 88.40, 90.10

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the $1,259.96 level in a high volume. The price reached my first take profit level at $1,256.00. On the 15M time frame chart, I found a successful test of supply in a low volume, which is a sign that selling gold looks risky. Watch for intraday buying opportunities. Also, I found a successful breakout of the trading range and some kind of a three drive reversal pattern. There is a lack of supply around the price of $1,256.00, which is a great buying signal for professional traders. The first major short-term take profit level is set at $1,279.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,253.70

R2: 1,256.50

R3: 1,261.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,243.70

S2: 1,240.60

S3: 1,235.60

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when selling and watch for potential buying opportunities.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair has faced strong support at 0.6951 as a resistance level turned into support. So, the strong support is found at 0.6951, and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. The 0.6951 level represents a daily pivot point as it acts as minor support today. Furthermore, the NZD/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the new support at 0.6951. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. Therefore, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.6951 and 0.7053. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.6951 with the first target at 0.7053. If the trend is able to break the double top at 0.7053, then the market will continue rising towards the 0.7075 and 0.7100 levels. On the other hand, if the pair succeeds to pass through the 0.6903 level, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the 0.6951 level. Hence, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 0.6951 - 0.6903, the stop loss should be set below the last bearish wave at 0.6903.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.6396 in a high volume. I found a successful breakout of the pivotal point at the price of 1.6270, which is a sign that we may see a further upward price. The next pivotal point and upward take profit level are set at the price of 1.6475. Watch for buying opportunties on the dips. According to the 15M time frame, I found broken bullish symmetrical triangle (bullish continuation pattern).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6370

R2: 1.6415

R3: 1.6490

Support levels:

S1: 1.6215

S2: 1.6170

S3: 1.6090

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. The trend is upward.

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, gold has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the $1,270.00 level in a high volume. Anyway, the price rejected strongly from $1,270.00 and we saw a drop and testing of $1,243.65 in an ultra high volume. According to the daily time frame, I found a strong sign of weakness. The bar closed near the low with very wide spread (range) in a very high volume. According to the 30M time frame, I found a trading range between the price of $1,243.00 and $1,253.00. Due to a strong sign of weakness in the background, watch for potential bearish breakout of trading range to confirm further downward movement. Take profit level is set at the price of $1,228.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,265.00

R2: 1,270.60

R3: 1,279.40

Support levels:

S1: 1,247.60

S2: 1,240.10

S3: 1,233.40

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when buying and watch for potential selling opportunities.

 

[jebat66]

NZD/CAC continues moving down today after producing new lower low. The Fibonacci applied to the first corrective wave up after the support breakout shows that price broke below 161.8% (R1), corrected sharply up to retest the R3 resistance. Currently, it is trading below R1.

The overall trend is bearish and therefore it is recommended to look for sell opportunities . Consider selling NZD/CAD at the current price (0.8780) targeting either S1 (0.8730) or S2 (0.8635) as a final target. The stop loss should be well above R1 (0.8820)

Support: 0.8730, 0.8635

Resistance: 0.8820, 0.8880, 0.8970