Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

DAILY MARKET REPORT MARCH 28, 2016

Today, the greenbacks surged up against Euro and Yen after rebounding last week. It was helped by comments from Fed officials that they could raise interest rates as early as next month.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies rose 0.2 percent to 96.378, the highest in almost two weeks. The dollar rose 0.6 percent to 113.64 yen, remaining its recovery from a 6-1/2-month low of 110.67 hit on March 17.

The market is now waiting for a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on the economic outlook and monetary policy on Tuesday (March 29). A few other Fed policymakers are also due to speak on the same day, making the Fed's policy the biggest focus for now.

In Japan, with the market dominated by the BOJ's massive buying and its policy decisions, many investors expect high volatility to persist, giving the holders of JGBs a headache.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after a three-day break, but with small volume as a number of markets remain closed on account of Easter. The decline in the U.S. rig count and strong gasoline demand were the reasons for some of that recovery. However, the main reason was major producers' plans to freeze output at January's highs.

Technicals

EURUSD

EURUSD is on track to fall as low as 1.11604 from the resistance of 1.13450, formed on March 17. The dots band has been separated by a green candle and now is lying under the price movement, giving support to surge up. However, RSI’s reading is standing at 40.4364, smaller than the average. This indicates that the bear is still overwhelming. The pair is anticipated to move sideways in a short period of time and then rise up when the bull comes.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.12220, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.11315.

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is extending the downward pressure for a period of time with the current price at 0.75094. The EMA 10 (blue line) is under the EMA 30 (red line) and no signals of crossing given. The pair is expected to enter the bearish market, following the lead of the two EMAs above.Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.75935, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.74715.

GBPJPY

The two SMA lines just crossed but the price has already surged up as high as 160.565 and expected to climb more. The Stochastic chart shows that the pair is in the overbought territory and the %K line (blue line) is heading up, refusing to cross the %D line. The upward trend may continue for a while and then pull back soon.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 159.706, Buy Digital Call Option at 161.750.

SILVER

The dots band is lying above the price movement, putting a downward pressure on the metal. The commodity is currently traded at 15.141 and seems to inch down continuously. RSI is at 28.3170, below the oversold level, showing that the price just approached the strong bearish market. A bounce back is expected after heading to the support of 15.090.Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 15.320, Buy Digital Put Option at 15.125.

WTI

The price climbed to 40.08 after testing the support of 38.64. The dots band lies above the price movement for a period of time before meeting the chart, a break is expected to occur. The commodity is anticipated to continue rising up as the bullish signal is flagged.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 41.819, Buy Digital Put Option at 38.766


NASDAQ

NASDAQ is moving in a slight uptrend with the current price at 4409.28. The Stochastic chart shows that the index has just surged up after nearly reaching the oversold territory. The current trend is expected to continue for a period of time and test the resistance of 4447.25 before pulling back.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 4438.58, Buy Digital Call Option at 4419.65.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on March 29, 2016

On Monday, economic data from the Commerce Department’s report shows that the goods trade deficit in February is expanding, indicating that the US’s inflation is still under a sluggish situation. As the report was released, consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, just rose 0.1% last month, compared to 0.5% gain in January.

After which, many economists lowered their forecasts on the US’s first-quarter growth to 1.5%, instead of 2.3% as the previous goal.
The interest rate hike will come across difficulties to be continued at the Fed’s meeting in April as there are negative signals from the economic growth. Today, the market is waiting for Chairman Yellen’s speech. Fed watchers are discussing if Yellen will re-emphasize about the April meeting to be a "live meeting," indicating that the central bank could raise rates or not.

Yesterday, China announced its services and merchandise trade surplus was at $9.9 billion in February, a significant fall from $35 billion in January. Whereas, Japan's consumer spending in February rose for the first time in six months, a positive signal for the country’s growth.

In Asian trade on Tuesday, oil prices continued dropping slightly from the two-month peak. The US oil and Brent was down to $39.53 and $40.55 per barrel, respectively, expected to slide a little before bouncing back.

Technicals

USDJPY

After the strong drop from the resistance at 121.729 created on January 29, USDJPY moved in wide ranges between 110.622 and 114.952. The dots moving below the price movement signal that the pair is in the bullish market. The price is expected to continue going up and retest the resistance at 114.952, formed on February 16.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 114.520, Buy Digital Put Option at 113.050.

EURGBP

EURGBP current price is 0.78617. The pair is now in strong uptrend with the support of the two EMAs, both in short-term and long-term. RSI is 55.6154, heading to the overbought territory, indicating strong buying power. The bullish market is anticipated to last more with the pair hitting the resistance at 0.79477, formed on March 24.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.79261, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78291.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD extended the recover at 0.67491 from the support at 0.66641, the lowest level in more than 10 days, after the consecutive drop from the strong resistance at 0.68751 formed on March 18. The ADX hovering around 39 as well as DI+ moving above DI- suggests strong bullish trend. The pair is supposed to hit the resistance at 0.67931 created on March 21.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.67700, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.67375.

GOLD

GOLD fell consecutively from the resistance at 1271.51, formed on March 17 and now is traded at 1217.68. The commodity is in downtrend, which is anticipated to last more as RSI 39 points to oversold territory. The price is expected to continue falling from the current price of 1217, hitting the support at 1207.87, created on March 28 before pulling back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 1211.72, Buy Digital Call Option at 1223.00.

BRENT

BRENT is in strong uptrend created from the support at 27.39, the lowest level of the year. RSI hovers above level 50, showing strong buying power. Though the price inched down at 40.56 currently, the bullish market seems to continue. The commodity is expected to witness a slight drop then go up and retest the resistance at 42.97, formed on March 18.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 38.92, Buy Digital Call Option at 40.66.

FTSE

FTSE is now traded at 6145.80, extending the recover from the support at 6089.70. ADX staying above level 25, DI+ heading up to above DI-, as long with RSI hovering around 46 indicates strong buying trend. The index is anticipated to continue the bullish market, hitting the resistance at 6236.00, formed on March 18.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 6105.85, Buy Digital Call Option at 6148.53.

 

[Option_Banque]

Euro Pares Gains With The Market Eyes On Yellen

Yesterday, the US Commerce Department announced a large goods trade deficit of $62.9 billion in February, rose $7 billion compared with February 2015. Consumer spending, which gained 0.5% in January, just inched up 0.1% last month. These weak economic data put a downward pressure on the US dollar, the dollar index DXY slid a little to 96.020.
Wall Street economists on Monday cut their forecasts on the US’s first-quarter growth to 1.5% from 2.3% as stated previously. With the negative signals from global economic growth, the market is confusing whether Fed implements the normalization road with three rate hikes this year or not. Investors are awaiting Fed President Yellen’s comments for economic outlook and monetary policy today.
In early European trade on Tuesday, the European central bank (ECB) released that the annual growth rate of the narrower aggregate M1, which includes currency in circulation and overnight deposits, fell to 10.3% in February, from 10.5% in January. Meanwhile, the M3 Money Supply report, which shows the change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks, remained unchanged in the last month.

Fig. EURUSD Technical Chart H4
EURUSD is moving sideways for a while, under the resistance of 1.13450 since March 17. The SMA 14 (green line) just met the SMA 21 (red line) and cross seems to happen. If the SMA 21 lies below the SMA 21, the pair may enter the bullish market. The price is anticipated to head down to the support of 1.11600 and then surge up.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.11510, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.12172.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on March 30, 2016

Today, Asian shares gained on looming expectations for U.S. rate hike this year, bruising the dollar and boosting sovereign bonds.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan jumps 1.3 percent after 4 consecutive sessions of losses. Japan's Nikkei was the only loser who slipped due to appreciating yen against the dollar. The index fell 0.3 percent.

Dollar trimmed the gain after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen stressed the need to be cautious in normalization path and highlighted external risks including oil crash and global sluggish growth. Hence, the market is wondering if there will be even one tighten step this year. The drop in the U.S. dollar helped oil prices regain a little ground, as U.S. stockpiles is forecasted to have grown by less than previous figure. Weaker dollar also makes safe-have asset like gold, silver more attractive.

After Yellen’s speech, the dollar index lost 0.8 percent in its biggest daily fall in about two weeks. Yellen's dovish view urged investors to buy U.S. Treasuries on expectations that Fed will not take a rate hike soon, and the lower yields undermined demand for the dollar. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes stood at 1.810 percent after skidding to a four-week low of 1.805 percent in U.S. trade on Tuesday.

Japan's factory output in February fell the most since 2011 after an earthquake broke the supply chain, surging fears of another recession and renewing pressure on policymakers to take prompt action.

Technicals

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is on track to rise as high as 1.43759 with the support of the two SMA lines below. However, the stochastics chart shows that the pair is in the overbought territory and the %K line (blue line) just crossed the %D line (red line), implying a decline in short term. The price is anticipated to inch down and then climb up, continue the current uptrend.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.4472 and Digital Put Option at 1.4338


USDCAD

USDCAD is about to enter the oversold area as RSI is standing at 30.5570. The dots band is lying above the price movement, putting a downward pressure on the price. The pair is currently traded at 1.30693, expected to move sideways for a while before going down.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.2978 and Digital Call Option at 1.3121

EURJPY

Reaching the resistance of 127.458, EURJPY is dropping to the current price of 127.084. SMA 14 and SMA 21 refused to meet each other and awkwardly went apart, indicating that the uptrend is still strong. The pair seems to surge up and break the current resistance after heading down to the support of 126.784.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 127.73 and Digital Put Option at 126.50

SILVER

The commodity increased to the current price of 15.295 after hovering around the oversold level for a period of time. The two SMAs are sticking but cross has not happened yet. The price needs more signals to create a new trend as RSI’s reading is around the average, showing no clear direction.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 15.45 and Digital Put Option at 15.21

SPX500

The index is climbing up after testing the support of 2017.64 on March 24, The current reading is at 2054.97, seems to reach the resistance of 2074.25. RSI stands at 62.6788, showing that the bull is still overwhelming and, giving support for the index’s rally.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 2042.0 and Digital Call Option at 2071.0

DAX

DAX is currently traded at 9930.08, moving sideways lately while extending the gradual uptrend formed on February 11. The EMA lines just met the price chart and is about to cross each other. The index is anticipated to increase continuously when the cross happens and the lines lie under the price movement.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 9841.0 and Digital Call Option at 10075.0

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold Supported From Dovish Fed

Yesterday, Fed President Janet Yellen stated in her speech that the central bank will keep cautious steps on the interest rate hike road, due to weak data from the US’s economic growth. After her dovish comments, the green currency’s value tumbled violently. The dollar index, which measures the buck against a basket of its peers, dimmed to 95.02, getting closer to the five-month low.
Today, the Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced that the industrial output in February fell significantly, dropped 6.2% after rising in the previous month. The country sees some negative signals in economic growth, so the yen’s demand is likely to decrease and investors seems to rush their speculative capital flows into other markets such as gold, stocks.
In the early trade on Wednesday, the US will release its Non-farm employment change and oil inventories of previous week. Non-farm payroll is expected to add 195000 jobs in February, a slight lower than previous month. The crude oil stockpiles might witness a positive reading last week.

Fig. GOLD Technical Chart H4
The commodity is escaping the bottom of 1207.64, formed on March 28. The two SMA lines have just crossed and is going apart, which predicts a reversal to uptrend. The price is anticipated to surged up strongly to break through the descending trendline, and test the resistance of 1250.56.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1247.5, Buy Digital Put Option at 1228.5.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on April 1, 2016

The two biggest Asian economies showed mounting concerns about global recovery. As a result, the stock markets went down.

The Bank of Japan’s decision to shift to negative interest rate in January’s meeting has not been advantageous. This is due to the fact that Japanese economy keeps posing weak. The Tankan surveys of business conditions were published in early trade. They indicated that the sentiment among largest manufacturers and non-manufacturers deteriorated to the lowest in nearly three years.

The index gauging for the health of manufacturing sector only stood at 6. This was as much as half compared to the data of the previous two months. The gauge for non-manufacturing sector also drop to 22 from the level of 25 recorded in January and February. Both readings could not reach the expectation of the market, which is 8 for the former and 24 for the latter.

The weakened demand from foreign markets and strengthened Yen led to the retreat in Japanese business sentiment. This not only made the already gloomy situation worse, but also put more pressure on PM Abe to boost his on-verge-of-recession rebound.

The Chinese official factory gauge showed improving conditions for the first time in eight months with the PMI index recorded at 50.2 in March. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing PMI surged to 53.8 from 52.7 in February, the highest number in the last three month.

This improvement is suggesting that the government’s fiscal and monetary stimulus is kicking in. a significant rate cut in jobs is raising another concern despite Beijing’s attempt to cut industrial overcapacity without spurring massive layoffs.

Today, a batch of data from Eurozone and U.S, especially the Non-farm Payrolls due at 0:30 P.M GMT, will draw market’s attention.

Technicals

USDJPY

The pair has gone sideways around 112.193, moving under the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement for two trading days. The consolidation following a sharp retreat at the start of this week is likely to make a break today as the RSI (14) has inched down to 36.76, which shows a strong bearish market. The greenback is expected to hit the 61.8 level at 111.952.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 111.969, Buy Digital Call Option at 112.360.

EURGBP

In general, the pair has been gaining strong bullish momentum since it hit the support at 0.78334 on Wednesday, and is heading for the one-week high at 0.79457. The RSI (14) is still at a high level of 67.34, much likely to break into overbought territory but a correction is expected then as the resistance of 0.97457 is quite strong. This level has retrained the pair from taking off at least two times in the past.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 0.78916, Buy Digital Call Option at 0.79487.

AUDUSD

A consolidation is causing the price to move sideways lately under the resistance of 0.77219. The distance between the price and the MA21 is getting closer but a crossover is not expected soon as the Aussie may pull back from the support at 0.76490, which has as a strong resistance last week. Moreover, the RSI (14) is still lingering near the overbought zone, indicating the market is in favor of the bull.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 0.77183, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.76295.

SILVER

Silver is moving in a shrinking range under the downward trending resistance and above the support of 15.365. A north-to-south breakout is predicted to occur soon as the –DI line is about to cross over the +DI line. The price may fall to the support at 15.186 before bouncing back or extending the losses to the low of 15.048.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 15.186, Buy Digital Call Option at 15.454.

BRENT

The Brent crude is moving in a descending triangle and has just bounced back from the lower bar. Both of the indicators are showing no clear trend as the RSI (14) is hovers around 45.16 while the ADX (14) has lowered to 19.00. The price is facing a resistance at 40.30, a correction is expected soon.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 39.60, Buy Digital Call Option at 40.85.

FTSE

The gauge for 100 U.K blue chips has been locked between 6228.2 and 6096.4 for a month. FTSE is pointing to the support at 6096.4. The retreat has been confirmed as the ADX (14) has surged to 27.09 with the –DI is above the +DI and the distance between two lines widens.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 6076.2, Buy Digital Call Option at 6167.2

 

[Option_Banque]

Central Bank Meeting Minutes In Focus For Clues On Next Policy Move

Last Friday, U.S stocks advanced considerably, extending the rally to seven consecutive weeks after March Non-farm report had shown positive signals of domestically economic recovery without posing any threat of Fed to raise interest rate in April meeting.
The U.S. Department of Labor said that there were 215,000 more jobs created in the previous month, following a gain of 245,000 new workers in February and above the forecast of 210,000 by economists. Average hourly earnings, which is published at the same time, increased by 0.3 percent after unexpectedly dropped 0.1 percent in February.
After two months enjoyed the unemployment rate at eight-year lows of 4.9 percent, the percentage of U.S work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment mildly rose to 5.0 percent. The increase was due to the fact that more Americans entered the labor market and pushed the labor force participation rate to surge to 63 percent, the highest since March 2014.
With the unemployment rate came back to the level of 5.0 percent, not to mention the speech of President Janet Yellen on Tuesday that Fed’s policy makers would have to consider slowing the pace of rate hike, this upcoming April meeting is widely expected to have no surprise. However, the U.S economy are witnessing signals of improvement as many Americans are pulled back to the workforce, underscoring a solid growth in labor sector.
Another report on Friday which was ISM Manufacturing PMI also pointed to positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing gauge for March expanded for the first time since October, 2015. The readings was much better than expected with 51.8 points, fuelled by the highest number of new orders since November 2014.
Next week, the market will look for ISM Non-manufacturing PMI due on Tuesday, which is forecasted to pose expansion at the level of 54.1 points, before drawing attention to the FOMC meeting minutes published a day after.
The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. Later in the same day, ECB President Mario Draghi is due to speak at an event in Portugal.
On Monday, investors may eye on British Construction PMI and Eurozone Unemployment rate. Last week, Sterling was the worst performer on the back of a lower-than-anticipated manufacturing PMI report. The more important U.K. PMI Services report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, not to mention Industrial Production report due on Friday. Upbeat data may fuel a losing-momentum Pound to rise against U.S dollar.
In the last trading day next week, the Loonie will come insight as Statistics Canada will report the change in the number of employed people during March and its Unemployment Rate at 1:30 GMT. Currently, Canadian dollar has been in a mixed bag with the volatility of the crude price.
On commodity market, oil price is heading down with both the benchmarks settled down lower for two weeks in a row. Crude futures are posing sharp declines after report that Saudi Arabia will not agree to a comprehensive production freeze later this month unless Iran also pledges to cap its output. This is quite likely a notification of death to attempts of other producers in OPEC and Russia to push crude price to inch up.
Gold also plunged on Friday but closed higher last week as expectation of U.S tightening its policy has been fading so far this year. The yellow metal is sensitive to the greenback as a rise would lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion.

 

[Option_Banque]

EURGBP Falls After Downbeat February PPI

According to the data on Friday, U.S. non-farm payrolls rose around 215,000 on March, slightly higher than forecast. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent from an eight-year low of 4.9 percent. The greenbacks dims on Monday after Friday’s firm U.S jobs report confirmed that the Federal Reserve would remain cautious on raising interest rates this year.
The Final Manufacturing PMI was also released at 51.6. This was above the level 50 of indicating the industry expansion. The data was forecasted to remain unchanged in comparison with the February at 51.4.
In the UK, the Manufacturing PMI, measuring the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry, stayed at 51.0. This was up 0.39% compared with the last month. This is the rate of respondents about the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.
Today, the number of unemployed people in Spain registered at the offices of the Public Employment Services declined 58,200. The previous monthly forecasts had predicted to witness a 21,300 increase. This is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions.
The unemployment rate of the Eurozone remained unchanged compared with the reading of February at the three-year low level of 10.3 percent.
The Producer Price Index (PPI), measuring the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, declined 0.7% in February after the 1% drop in the previous month.

Fig: EURGBP D1 Technical Chart
EURGBP has been in strong uptrend with the support of the moving average below. The pair retreated from the resistance level at 0.80218 and now is traded at 0.80004. RSI is hovering around 65 after getting closed to the overbought territory, indicating that the buying power is weaker and weaker. The pair is expected to test the support at 0.78622 soon.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.79478, Buy Digital Call Option at 0.80184.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on April 04, 2016

The greenbacks dims on Monday, extending losses against the euro and yen. On Friday the U.S jobs report confirmed that the Federal Reserve would remain cautious on raising interest rates this year. According to the data on Friday, U.S. non-farm payrolls rose by 215,000 on March. This was slightly higher than the forecast of 210,000. However, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent from an eight-year low of 4.9 percent.

Oil prices dropped on Monday as the chances of Middle East producers agreeing to reduce overproduction seem to fade. The U.S. output remains relatively high. Last week, Saudi Arabia said it would only participate in a global freeze of its output if Iran also joined in. This made the fall of oil prices extend. In addition to that, the US production continued at a high level despite the steep cut in the number of drillings.

According to a survey of the Bank of Japan, the long-term inflation expectations of the country’s companies have weakened in March. This signals that the January's decision to adopt negative interest rates has failed to convince firms that price rises will accelerate over time. Companies expect consumer prices to rise about 0.8 percent a year from now. These stats were lower than the 1.0 percent increase expected three months ago.

Australian shares rose on Monday as positive U.S. data helped lift markets across Asia, though the drop in oil prices put down the energy sector. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is going to hold its April policy meeting on Tuesday and is widely expected to keep the cash rate at a record low 2 percent.

Technicals

AUDUSD

AUDUSD is fluctuating in a wide range after heading towards the resistance of 0.77230 on the last day of March. The SMA 14 (green line) and SMA 21 (red line) are getting closer and meeting the price chart. If the two lines cross, the downward pressure of the dots band above will continue, the pair is expected to dim further.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.75972, Buy Digital Call Option at 0.76245.

GBPUSD

The Stochastics chart shows that GBPUSD is in the oversold territory. The %K line (blue line) already lies above the %D line (red line), preparing for a reversal. The price reached the support of 1.41688 before rising slightly for several hours. The pair seems to slide a little as the dots band still casts the shadow on the price chart and then surge up.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 1.41710, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.42243.

CADJPY

The pair has been falling from the resistance of 87.435 since March 31. The short-term EMA (green line) just passed the long-term EMA (red line) and the two are moving above the price. CADJPY is on the strong selling market with RSI’s reading is at 39.7278, smaller than average.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 85.315, Buy Digital Call Option at 85.555.

GOLD

GOLD bounced back after reaching the support of 1207.69 on March 28 and now is extending the current downtrend. The price movement is under the SMAs’ shadow, indicating that the metal may go down continuously. The price is anticipated to retest the support of 1207.69 after agitating in short term.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 1206.89, Buy Digital Call Option at 1219.23.

WTI

WTI is on the way down with the pressure from the dots band above. The stochastics chart shows that the commodity is diving in the oversold territory, however there are no clear signals for reversal as the %D line (blue line) has not yet lied below the %K line (red line). The downtrend is expected to continue in short term and then the price will bounce back, escape the bearish market.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 35.797, Buy Digital Call Option at 36.574

DAX

The SMA 14 and SMA 21 have kept crossing together for period of time and no clear signals given to create a new trend. The stochastic shows that the index just reached the oversold zone and bounced back immediately. The price is predicted to climb up strongly and cover the wide gap formed last week.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 9729.63, Buy Digital Call Option at 9816.65.

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily report on April 05, 2016

The US economic growth has slowed further in the first quarter of this year. On Monday, the Commerce Department announced that new order in manufacturing section fell 1.7% due to declined demand, following the downward pressure for the last 19 months. They also said that the so-called core capital goods’ orders (excluding aircraft) in February was down significantly by 2.5% instead of the 1.8% as initially thought. After these downbeat data, the US government bond did show a little change in price.
Investors are awaiting brighter signals for strengthening in the euro area as the sentix investor confidence released yesterday showed a rise marginally to 5.7, from the level 5.0 in February. The Eurozone sees bright signals for strengthening. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in February was down slightly to 10.3%, from 10.4% in previous month, compared with the reading 11.2% in the same period in 2015. These positive data gave market a strong momentum.
In Japan, real wages, inflation-adjusted basic, increased the first time in four months by 0.4% in February from a year earlier, indicating that the consumer spending might climb up. Whereas, the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda on Tuesday stated that the monetary easing policy can be considered to implement if it is necessary to prevent deflation.
In today's meeting, the Australian Reserve bank decided to let the cash rate remain unchanged at 2.0%. This was due to inflation close to the target as shown by prospects.

Technicals

AUDUSD

AUDUSD gained consecutively from the support at 0.68192, the lowest level of the year, to as high as 0.77188. After getting closed to the overbought territory, the pair inched down at 0.75851 with RSI 57, indicating that the buying power is weaker and weaker. The pair is anticipated to test the support level at 0.73894, created on April 12, 2015.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.75821, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.75581.

EURJPY

The Euro dropped significantly against the Japanese Yen due to the pressure of the moving average above, from the resistance at 128.220, created on April 1. RSI is now hovering around 30, indicating strong selling power. As shown the long body of the last candles, the pair is expected to continue the downtrend and hit the support level at 125.269.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 125.861, Buy Digital Put Option at 125.269.

USDCHF

USDCHF current price is 1.02530. After hitting the solid resistance at 1.02530, the pair witnessed strong downtrend with RSI hovering around level 30, indicating continuous bearish market. With the short-term moving average putting pressure above, the pair is anticipated to hit the resistance at 0.96624 then pulling back and fall further.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.96628, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.95706.

SILVER

SILVER has witnessed strong fall from the resistance at 16.336, formed on October 28, 2015 then bounced back greatly and is now traded at 15.062. The commodity is now in uptrend despite the moving average moving above. The price is supposed to retest the resistance level at 15.528, formed on March 31.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 15.450, Buy Digital Put Option at 14.890.

FTSE

FTSE is currently traded at 6117.40. The index is moving in sideways with narrow ranges between 5997.15 and 6239.42, due to the pressure of the strong uptrend before. RSI is hovering below level 50, indicating no clear direction. There is likely a strong movement of the price after this period. At the moment, the index is expected to retest the support at 5997.15, formed on March 10.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 6218.08, Buy Digital Put Option at 6030.12.

SPX500

SPX is in strong uptrend with the current price 2056.09. The index has trimmed the gain from the strong resistance at 2079.48, created on April 4. With RSI hovering around 50 and heading down, the index may witness slight down, hitting the support level at 2047.87 before bouncing back.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 2056.99, Buy Digital Put Option at 2021.71.

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Loonie Suffers The Hurt From Oil Price

Yesterday, the US Commerce Department reported that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft were down significantly by 2.5% instead of the 1.8% as initially expectation. New orders for manufactured goods in February also extended the current downtrend in nearly two years by dropping 1.7% as the demand decline, paring the gains 1.2% in the previous month. In response of these weak data from the economic growth, the US government bond did show a little fluctuation in price.
In the labor market, according to the non-farm payrolls reported on April 01, the job creation in March was at 215,000, a little higher than expectation, increased about 2.3% compared the year earlier, the best pace in five months.
On Monday, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said that the central bank will likely raise interest rates this year before markets currently expect since risks to the U.S. economy from abroad are fading. His dovish stance contributed a positive sign to strengthen the greenback. The dollar index DXY inched up to 94.72 from the 94,56 reading of previous close.
Today, oil is on track to fall after shedding more than 2% overnight, as investors doubted that oil supplying countries would freeze output to address a global glut. Front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 19 cents from the last settlement to $35.51 per barrel. International Brent futures were at $37.60 per barrel, slid 9 cents. The Loonie is going down because of the downward pressure from the oil prices’ decline.

Fig. USDCAD H4 Technical Chart
USDCAD is on the way up from the half-year lowest level of 1.28523 formed on March 31. The uptrend is confirmed as the two SMA lines passed and are lying below the price chart, supporting the pair to climb more. RSI hovers around 58.4658, higher than average, indicating that the ascending will last for a period of time.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.31614, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.30464.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on April 06, 2016

Today, oil prices jumped up. This was due to the expectations that a wide deal about the output freeze will be reached amid global oversupply. Kuwait's OPEC Governor and two sources suggested that the meeting of oil-producing countries on April 17 would release an agreement to freeze output. Hence signaling that Iran's aim to boost production will not scupper the price supporting deal.

Amid times of sell-off in the global markets since the start of this year, the yen’s favor as safe-haven asset has become stronger. Thanks to the slowdown in Fed’s tightening policy, Yen has soared steadily. However, this advance has come along with the mounting fear that Japan’s government could intervene to hold back its currency’s rally, which is a headwind to the recovery of Japanese economy. Yesterday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told that countries should avoid competitive devaluation with arbitrary intervention in currency market. The dollar then quickly dropped below 110 yen before recovering to about 110.50 yen.

Currency market strategists are predicting that the greenback will become weaker over the next few months, as the Federal Reserve does not seem to take another rate hike through the spring. Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated that the market view about rising interest rate was pessimistic due to disappointing global economic data. This makes gold keep the gain as this is seen as a safe-haven asset in current global economic condition.

The dollar index, measuring the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell 4.1 percent in the first quarter. This was its biggest quarterly percentage drop in five and a half years.

Technicals

NZDUSD

Stochastics chart shows that NZDUSD dived in the oversold territory for a period of time and now is escaping this zone. The pair is climbing up from the support of 0.67561 yesterday, seems to rise more. However, the parabolic SAR still casts shadow on the price movement and has not met the price yet. The pair is anticipated to inch up for some consolidation before continuing the downward pressure.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 0.68390 and Digital Put Option at 0.67889.

EURUSD

EURUSD hit the resistance of 1.14384 on April 01, and then has been fluctuating lately with no clear direction. The short-term SMA14 has already crossed over the long-term SMA21 from above, signaling for a trend change. The pair is expected to move sideways in short – term before starting a sharp downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.13337 and Digital Call Option at 1.14112.


GBPJPY

GBPJPY is on track to fall from the two-week high (162.579) formed on March 30 with the pressure of the EMA lines hang over. As shown by the stochastics chart, the pair is plunging in the oversold area, a rebounce is expected to happen. The recent candles own quite short bodies indicating that the bull is chopping after bearish time.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 155.412 and Digital Call Option at 156.817.

SILVER

SILVER takes pressure from the bearish market as the dots band is hanging above the price chart. RSI is standing at 45.6235, near the average. The metal is anticipated to move in a narrow range for a while and then continue the current downtrend, reaching the support of 14.855.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 14.963 and Digital Call Option at 15.128.

BRENT

BRENT expanded the downtrend and hit the support of 37.29 yesterday. The price is surging up strongly from the oversold territory as shown in the stochastics chart. However, the selling power is still strong, the commodity is expected to test the resistance level of 39.30 before pulling back.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 38.100 and Digital Call Option at 39.545

NASDAQ

RSI indicator is hover around the average, giving no clear direction for the price movement. The SMA 14 (green line) is heading down and tend to cross the SMA 21 (red line). If the short-term SMA lies below the long-term SMA, a decline happens and the index may break the two-month trend line, reverse to downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 4449.56 and Digital Call Option at 4544.00.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on April 07, 2016

The Federal Reserve released minutes of the FOMC meeting held in mid-March. According to the minutes, the rate hike sees no possibilities to be carried on in this month as previous expectation, due to the weak economic growth. After discussing whether to continue the normalization road or not, the policymakers came to the decision that the central bank would not raise interest rate before June.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday also reported that crude oil stockpiles last week decreased 4.9 million barrels. Meanwhile, forecasts predicted it to build up to 3.2 million barrels and reach the 8 consecutive weak peak. After the surprise draw in inventories, the oil prices surged up sharply, settling down at $38.49, rose 3.27% from the open price.

In the euro area, the retail PMI in March pointed to decline to 49.2 from 50.1 in February, the fourth decrease in the last five months. A reading smaller than average implies an economic slowdown of the Eurozone.

In Asia, the Caixin China services PMI inched up to 52.2 in March from 51.2 in February, indicating a recovery outside the nation's factory sector. Whereas, the Japan leading index last month dropped for the fourth month to 99.8, according to the Japan's Cabinet Office report yesterday.

The BOJ Governor Kuroda stated that the central bank may stick to the negative rates as long as possible if necessary to gain the target of 2% inflation this year.

On Wednesday, Australia reported its Performance of Construction Index for March to be at 45.2. This was the lowest level in 13 months, showing a descending in construction activity.

Technicals

GBPUSD

Since September 2015, GBPUSD has been in strong downtrend from the resistance at 1.56314. RSI is now at 43, heading to the overbought territory, indicating stronger selling power. The price is anticipated to hit the support level at 1.38135 soon as the strong pressure from the downtrend may push the pair to the oversold zone.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.40176, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.41053.

USDCAD

USDCAD is now traded at 1.30811. The pair fell consecutively from the resistance at 1.46791, formed on January 20 and is heading to the oversold territory with RSI hovering below level 45. Due to the pressure of the two moving averages above, the price is supposed to continue the bearish market and test the support at 1.28642, created on March 31.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.30621, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.31679.

EURJPY

EURJPY plummeted to 124.558 from the resistance at 128.236 due to the pressure of the moving average above. The ADX at 69.63, as long with DI- staying above DI+ and heading up, indicates that the selling trend is very strong at the moment. The pair is expected to continue the downtrend, hitting the support level at 123.044, formed on March 19.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 124.428, Buy Digital Put Option at 122.440.

GOLD

GOLD recovered from around 1208.78 to as high as 1237.02. After escaping from the resistance at 1284.04 formed on March 11, the commodity witnessed strong bearish market. With RSI above level 60 heading to the overbought zone and the short-term moving average moving below the price, the price is expected to have a slight recover to test the resistance at 1233.05.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1244.34, Buy Digital Put Option at 1222.40.

WTI

WTI is now traded at 38.91 with RSI hovering around level 50. The commodity gained consecutively from around 28.41before hitting 42.43. After reaching this resistance, the price fell to the Fibonacci 50 area and bounced back. It is expected to move sideways around the Fibonacci 23.6 zone in 1 or 2 days then pull back and hit Fibonacci 61.8 area.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 38.811, Buy Digital Put Option at 37.144.

DAX

DAX current price is 9662.79. The index extended the recover from the support at 9494.84, created on April 6, after dropping from the resistance at 10099.6. RSI is now 43, heading to the level 50, indicating that the uptrend is being formed. With the support of the moving average below, the price is expected to continue gaining, retesting the resistance level at 9899.68.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 9721.49, Buy Digital Put Option at 9496.29.

 

[Option_Banque]

Yen Hit One-And-A Half-Year High Despite Kuroda’s Statement

According to the FOMC meeting minutes released yesterday, the Federal Reserve now is keeping a cautious action on the interest rate hikes as the negative data came from the economic growth. The central bank is not likely to raise the rate in at least the next two months, betting against investors’ expectation on a rate hike in April’s meeting.
Fed’s statement last month stated that they may take action about two or three rate hikes before the end of the year. However, markets are showing a pessimistic view against the normalization road, and pricing in just one.
James Bullard from Fed on Wednesday said that the policy makers are seeking the solutions to push up the country’s economic situation. This indu so the tax, education and immigration systems might be reformed.
In response to the negative signals from the central bank, the buck tumble strongly as the dollar index DXY plunged to 94.239, the half-year lowest.
Today, in spite of the BOJ Kuroda’s statement of maintaining the monetary easing policy if needed, the yen surged up and hit the 17-month high, reinforcing its so-called “safe-haven”.

Fig. USDJPY H4 Technical Chart
USDJPY is extending the downtrend from March 29 as testing the resistance of 113.827. ADX stands at 67.5456, nearly reaching the level 70, indicating a strong selling power. The stochastics shows that USDJPY has dived in the oversold territory for a period of time but no clear signals for reversal given. The price is anticipated to edge down further before bouncing back to the bullish market.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 108.533, Buy Digital Put Option at 107.520.

 

[CapitalStreetFX]

Daily Market Report on April 08, 2016

Asian stocks are settling down in red for the third consecutive week. Banking and financial shares led losses in the market on Friday, following the slump of their counterparts in Europe and the U.S. markets on Thursday. Investors are facing raising concerns about more layoffs and cutbacks planned by Europe’s major lenders as they are struggling with zero rate.

Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank said that "When bank shares are making big falls and their CDS spreads are rising like this, obviously you would think something is afoot. If they keep falling in today's session, that is going to be really worrying”.

In a conversation with former Fed chairmen, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen stated that U.S economy is on a solid course. She noted that main gauges for labor markets are showing “higher than one would expect”. Therefore, although headwinds from foreign markets are posing thread to domestic expanding economy, the Fed is still on track to deploy further interest rate hikes.

The Labor Department said on Thursday that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell 9,000. The total was a seasonally adjusted 267,000 for the week ending on April 2. The decline is more than expected. Forecasts predicted that the reading of last week would reach 217,000. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits, which has been remaining under 300,000 for a year, is providing some reassurance that the economy is growing.

The record of the last ECB’s meeting was published yesterday, almost a day after the release of Fed March’s meeting minutes. The record showed that while ECB governors were broadly in agreement of the unprecedented easing measures taken by the euro area monetary authority.

Technicals
EURUSD

In a large trend, EURUSD has soared steadily more than 600 pips from the low of $1.08234 on March 2, 2016, and is heading for retesting the high at $1.14935. However, the pair has been moving sideways for a weak between $1.1339 and $1.14292, retreating slightly to trade around $1.13655. The RSI (14) has lowered to 45.19, which indicates a bearish market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.13339, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.14041.

USDJPY

The pair has surgeom the one-a-half-year low at 107.654 and is approaching the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 109.106. In the last two candles, long upper shadows indicates that the bear is still overwhelming on the market and restraining the price from ticking up. The RSI (14) still remains in the oversold territory but the indicator has inched up gradually.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 109.030, Buy Digital Put Option at 108.390.

GBPCAD

The pair has been trading in a descending downtrend for more than a month. This slide may last long as the ADX (14) is becoming stronger with higher highs while the price shows lower highs, showing a bearish divergence. There are chances that the pair may break through the low of 1.83750 to test the support at 1.82182.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.83750, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.84518.

SILVER

Silver is moving toward the moving average (20) and much likely to make a crossover after pulling back from the resistance at 15.220. Following each period of consolidation like this current one, the price tends to plunge strongly, and fall back to the lower bar. The –DI has just penetrated the +DI from below, not to mention the ADX (14) moving lower, showing that there will be a trend change soon.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 14.862, Buy Digital Call Option at 15.268.

BRENT

Brent crude price is on a violent rise and is paring all 130-pip losses yesterday. This current strong rally has shoot the price out of its descending range and support Brent crude to fly higher. The RSI (14) indicator is ticking up with high possibility of entering the overbought zone.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 40.977, Buy Digital Put Option at 40.230.

FTSE

The price has failed to escape from its range from $6064.30 to $6232.22 for half and a month. A small gap formed at the start of European session and the price keep inching up. A break out is not likely to happen soon as the ADX (14) is still at unclear-trend level. However, the gauge for 100 U.K blue chips may gain momentum in the next couple of hours as the RSI (14) has surpassed 50.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 6222.10, Buy Digital Put Option at 6104.02.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Market Report on April 11, 2016

Japanese Yen kept surging on Monday as demand for this safe-haven assets did not show any signs of abating. Being strong on the peak of the last 17 months, the currency is drawing warnings from Tokyo that the government should takes steps if needed. Japan's top government spokesman, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, said on Monday that recent currency moves were one-sided and speculative. He added that the agreement to avoid competitive currency devaluation does not mean Japan cannot intervene in response to currency moves.

However, these current verbal intervention seems in vain as the Yen is too strong even after the shift of the BOJ to negative rate in January. This is partly due to the fact that investors gave up on the outlook of Fed to raise its interest rate in near future after dovish stance of Fed’s official revealed in March’s meeting minutes. Another reason for the steady surge of the Yen is that this currency has been devaluated too far from its long-term fair value near 90.00, according to Credit Suisse. Therefore, the BOJ could not sell more Yen against U.S dollar to balance the market. Data released early on Monday showed Japan's core machinery orders fell less than anticipated at the pace of 9.2 percent in February from the previous month.

Chinese National Bureau of Statistics published its Consumer Price inflation to be unchanged from the year on year pace of February at 2.3 percent. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index for March declined less than anticipated at -4.3 percent. These are signals that deflationary pressure in the industrial sector may be easing. The government is aiming at transforming its export-based economy to one centered on consumption and services.

On commodities market, crude price is paring its gains last week after report showed that Iraq increased crude output to a record level in March. According to the state-run Oil Marketing Co, crude output of OPEC’s second-biggest producer advanced to 4.55 million barrels per day. Co. Exports increased to 3.81 million barrels a day in March from the level of 3.32 million in the previous month. The meeting between OPEC members and other producers on capping production to curb a global glut will be held on this Sunday.

Technicals

GBPJPY

The pair bounced back from the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement at 154.079 and is pointing to retest the low of 151.621 on last Thursday. The price remains under the moving average 20, showing a strong downward pressure. This slide may extend as the RSI (14) is lingering around the 30 threshold and shows no sign of recovery

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 151.665, Buy Digital Call Option at 152.988.

USDCHF

For the last couple of months, U.S dollar has been on a slump against its Swiss counterpart. After each moderate advance, the pair is tend to witness a sharp downfall and consistently form new low. The RSI (14) has remained at low level of around 33.69, showing a strong bearish market. As the price has not penetrated the oversold zone yet, there are still room for a further downfall.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 0.94741, Buy Digital Call Option at 0.95720.

EURCAD

Euro has been trading in a shrinking range against the Loonie. The pair is currently moving sideways around 1.48200 with a huge chance of ticking down, as the RSI (14) has lowered to 38.63. Besides, the resistance at 1.48248 is quite a strong one as it has restrained the price from surging up at least 4 times in the past.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 1.47180, Buy Digital Call Option at 1.48343.

GOLD

Gold trimmed its rally starting on last Friday, when it bounced back from the 23.6 Fibonacci level at $1234.07 per troy ounce. From then on, gold ticked up more than 160 pips to hit the high of $1252.05 per troy ounce. The RSI (14) has already reach the overbought zone. Therefore, the price is witnessing some short of correction.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1253.68, Buy Digital Put Option at 1239.12.

COPPER

The metal is extending its losses after a short correction from the one-and-a-half-month low of $2.0732 and is much likely to break this support to drop further to form the new low of 2.0552. The ADX (14) has lowered to below 20, while the –DI is about to cross over the +DI, which indicates that there is set to witness a trend change.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 2.0552, Buy Digital Call Option at 2.1019.

SP500

The gauge of 500 U.S blue chips has been downwards lately although the current slide is not a strong trend as the ADX (14) keeps falling further from the high of 40.70. The balance of the market is also reflected through the RSI (14) index, which has been lingering around 42.33 since last Friday.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 2050.66, Buy Digital Put Option at 2032.30.

 

[Option_Banque]

Us dollar gains steam ahead of important speeches

In a speech about the economy last week, a permanent voter on policy said that “a cautious and gradual approach to policy normalization is appropriate.” He also said that he expected the economy to witness 2% overall expansion this year with the unemployment rate dropping to about 4.75% from the current rate of 5% .
Dudley did not expect the inflation rate of the US to reach 2% goal this year. This is likely to force the Federal Reserve to release additional accommodations. Low oil and commodity prices may create more disinflationary pressures than he had predicted. He also indicated that there is some uncertainty about the prospects of the global economy growth.
The US Whole sale Inventories data was also released at 0.5% decline, the sharpest decline since May 2013. It measures the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers. Weak inventories in the first quarter of the year could lead to catch-up growth of the economy prospect in the next quarter as companies can restock their shelves.
Today, the Italian Industrial Production was published 0.6% decline after witnessing 1.7% rise in January. The data, which is a leading indicator of economic health, measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
In the USA, the market is waiting for the speech of the US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, taken at the Council on Foreign Relations today. Besides, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley’s talk about the community development is also being awaited. It will held at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development’s annual conference.
The event which draws market’s attention the most maybe the unexpected meeting of Fed. On April 8, Fed announced that it will hold a closed meeting “under expedited procedures”, during which the Board of Governors will review and determine advance and discount rates charged by the Fed banks. The last “unexpected meeting” was held only less than a month before the FOMC launched its first rate hike in years in December.

Fig: EURUSD D1 Technical Chart
The Euro went down slightly against the US dollar at 1.13812. The pair EURUSD has just escaped the overbought territory and hovers around the zone of the resistance 1.14973, the highest level from the beginning of the year. With RSI at 64.83, the price is anticipated to go down and hit test the support level at 1.10525 before bouncing back.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1.14380, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.13751.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily market report on April 12, 2016

On Tuesday, both U.S. and international crude futures stayed above $40 per barrel in front of the meeting of major producers on the discussion of freezing output levels to deal with the global oversupply.
Next Sunday, major oil producers from the Middle East and Russia, excluding the United States, is going to join a meeting in Doha. They will together discuss measures to cope with the global glut, which sees around 2 million barrels of crude produced in excess of demand everyday. Most analysts expect that these producers will freeze their output around the January level, which is already close to the record levels.
In Asia, the stock market gained today, led by a surge in Japanese shares after crude oil prices advanced as the weaker U.S. dollar made them cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Japan's Nikkei, which hovered around two-month lows on Friday, recovered a little and gained more than 1 percent on bargain hunting in beaten-down shares such as banking stocks. Australian shares also climbed 0.9 percent, supported by firm commodities.
In the European market, as being hurt by low commodity prices and the strong U.S. dollar, the metals company Alcoa Inc reported lower quarterly profit, also lowered its outlook for global sales in the aerospace industry in 2016. European stocks were seen opening a little lower on Tuesday, with weak-looking results from Alcoa potentially weighing on the mining stocks.

Technicals

EURGBP

EURGBP is on way down after testing the resistance of 0.81153 last Thursday. The Stochastics chart shows that the pair is diving in the oversold territory, a reversal to uptrend is awaited after a period of time dimming more as the SMA lines hang over the price chart.

suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 0.79564, Buy Digital Call Option at 0.80095.

USDJPY

USDJPY followed the strong downtrend for a period of time and is moving sideways lately. The price is witnessing a breakout as the price has broken the resistance. The current downtrend is abating as the ADX (14) has lowered to 35.29 from the high of around 70, the +DI crossed the –DI from below, showing that the trend is on the course to change.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 107.650, Buy Digital Call Option at 109.097.

AUDUSD

Aussie is on track to strengthen against the greenback as the dots band below gives the pair upward assistance. The Stochastics chart shows that the pair is entering the overbought territory, anticipated to climb more as the ADX stands at 46.9257, indicating the uptrend is very strong.

suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 0.76726 and Digital Put Option at 0.76229

WTI

RSI indicator is swinging around the overbought level, standing at 69.7342. WTI is in a strong bullish market, the uptrend may continue for a while, supported by the EMA lines below. The commodity is forecasted to retest the resistance of 42.55 before pulling back.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 40.065 and Digital Call Option at 40.977

SILVER

The short-term SMA (green line) refused to cross the long-term SMA (red line) and heads up. SILVER is taking pressure from the two SMAs below, increasing significantly. DI- is smaller than DI+, suggesting a buying position. ADX indicating that the bull is overshadowing strongly as registering at 56.9337. The price is expected to break the current resistance and surge up sharply.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 15.817 and Digital Call Option at 16.070.

DAX

Assisted by the dots below, DAX is on track to rise from the support of 9440.65, after a wide gap created early this week. The index is anticipated to test the resistance of 9788.02 before declining. RSI is lingering near the average at 52.44, implying no clear direction. More signals is needed to confirm a new trend.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option at 9663.4 and Digital Call Option at 9811.4

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold hits three-week high on softer dollar

Gold reached a three-week high on Tuesday due to the depreciation of the US Dollar. The greenback dipped to its lowest in nearly eight months, on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise U.S. interest rates soon. Uncertainty about the U.S. monetary policy and weak economic data have boosted investor sentiment towards bullion and other assets, which are considered as safe-haven, including the Japanese yen.
Last week, in spite of the positive inflation signals of the economy, New York Fed President William Dudley said that the central bank must be cautious when considering another rate hike, because of potential external risks to the U.S. economy. Yesterday, President Barack Obama and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen had a discussion on both the short-term and long-term growth outlook, the status of the labor market and potential risks to the US and global economy.
Today, oil prices have been stable, with U.S. crude futures staying above $40 per barrel ahead of the meeting of major producers to discuss freezing output levels to deal with global oversupply. This Sunday, major oil producers from the Middle East and Russia, are going to have a meeting in Doha to talk about measures to cope with 2 million barrels of crude produced in excess of demand, every day.
The market is waiting for US import prices, the earliest government-released inflation data, to be released today. The price of imported goods and services purchased domestically is expected to rise 1.0% after the 0.3% decline in February. It contributes to inflation for companies and consumers, especially those who have a heavy reliance on imported goods and services.

Fig: GOLD D1 Technical Chart
Gold is gaining momentum and has hit a high of 1260.76, the highest level in more than 3 weeks, with the support of the two moving averages below. RSI is hovering around 59 and heading towards the overbought territory, indicating strong buying power. The price is anticipated to continue the uptrend and retest the resistance level at 1285.02, formed on March 11.
Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option at 1262.63, Buy Digital Put Option at 1253.03.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report April 13, 2016

Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics released data on core input and output prices (excluding the more volatile food, beverage, tobacco and petroleum products). According to the data, core input prices, which fell 3.4% in the year to February 2016, showed a slower pace of decline, dropping 2.6% in March. Core output prices for March marked an increase of 0.2% year on year, compared with the reading of 0.1% in the preceding month.
In addition, the nation’s consumer prices index (CPI) continued its uptrend, and rose 0.5% in the year to March 2016, supported by the rallies in air fares and clothing prices. Meanwhile, retail sales last month inched down 0.7% compared with the same period in 2015, but were up 1.4% for the whole first quarter of this year.

Hence, the UK economy is witnessing a positive growth, shoving off the investors’ optimistic view.

Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday, that import prices for March climbed 0.2% while export prices remained unchanged after sliding 0.5% in the previous month. The Federal Budget Deficit reported by the US Bureau of Fiscal Service registered at $108 billion. This is higher than the shortfall of $106.5 billion as was expected.

The dollar index DXY is surging to 94.40 from the lowest level in six months as the market expects positive data on economic growth in the upcoming data releases.

In Asia, bright signals from the second economy are leading Asian markets into bullish territory. According to reports issued today, China’s trade surplus stood at $29.9 billion, the lowest level in a year as exports last month jumped 11.5% in dollar terms, whereas imports showed a decline of 7.6%. This is the 17th consecutive month of falls. However, the Shanghai Composite Index advanced 1.4%, closing at a three-month high.
Officials from Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Tuesday restated that the central bank is willing to ease monetary policy if necessary but IMF commented that BOJ’s intervention has not been very effective in stemming the strength of the Japanese Yen.

Technicals

GBPUSD

After hitting the resistance of 1.43453, GBPUSD is on track to fall as the Parabolic SAR levels have risen above the price chart. ADX (14) stands at 36.1026 and points down, DI- just passed DI+, suggesting a selling position. The sterling is currently strong against the buck, but the pair is expected to reach the support of 1.41407.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 1.43864, Buy Digital Put Option at 1.41629.

USDCHF

The Stochastics chart (14) shows that the %K line (blue line) has approached the overbought level, far-away from the %D line (red line), indicating that USDCHF is in a strong bullish market. The short-term SMA (14) just crossed and currently lies above the long-term SMA (21), assisting the pair to surge more from the support of 0.94964 formed yesterday.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 0.96480, Buy Digital Put Option at 0.95778.

EURJPY

The euro dipped against the yen for a period of time after testing the resistance of 128.203 on the last day of March. However, the downtrend is becoming weaker with time as ADX (14) is pointing down and registers at 19.5882. The SMA 21 (red line) is sticking with the SMA 14 (green line), so no clear direction is currently evident. The pair is anticipated to move sideways for a while before creating a new trend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at 122.718, Buy Digital Call Option at 123.652.

GOLD

Gold pared its gains, continuously falling from the resistance level at 1262.35. The current price is hovering around 1244.91. RSI is staying at 48.63 and heading into the oversold territory, indicating that the buying power is weaker and weaker. The commodity is anticipated to hit the support level at 1229.62 before bouncing back, preparing to form a head-and-shoulder pattern.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option at $1229.62, Buy Digital Call Option at 1250.15.

SILVER

SILVER has retreated from the resistance level at 16.194, formed on April 12 and is now trading at 16.034. RSI is now hovering around level 70, indicating that the commodity is in the overbought territory. With the support of the short-term moving average below, it is expected to retest the resistance 16.194, then pull back and hit the support level at 15.813, created on March 14, 2016.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at 16.194, Buy Digital Put Option at 15.945.

COPPER

Today, copper continued its gains and reached as high as 2.1543 after the steep fall from the resistance 2.3273, formed on March 18, 2016. The short-term moving average has turned to below the price movement, supporting copper below current levels. RSI is hovering below 50 and heading up, indicating stronger buying power. The commodity is expected to retest the resistance at 2.2226, created on September 29, 2015.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option at $2.2226, Buy Digital Put Option at 2.1230.