Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

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Dow Jones Trade Idea by Option Banque

Dow Jones Index Snaps Losing Streak, Holding High Ahead U.S. Election

The Dow Jones Industrial Average headed for the biggest one-day rally in over four months on Monday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation on Sunday said that its fresh review of Hillary Clinton’s emails won’t lead to charges.

All 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average’s components were trading in the positive territory, with only 7 issues that added less than 1%. The blue-chip barometer looks set to trim a seven-day losing streak which was partly due to concerns over tightening race between Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and his Democrat rival Hillary Clinton

The Dow Jones 30 index has gained 303.49 points, up 1.7% so far on the day. The biggest percentage gainers Monday were shares Microsoft Corp. and UnitedHealth with the former soaring 2.9% and the latter jumping 3.01%. Bankers such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. which added 2.28%, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. that ran up 2.33%, also contributed gains to the tune.

Fig: Dow Jones 30 index Technical Chart

The U.S. Dow Jones 30 index opened sharply higher on Monday, taking a big jump from the last close at 17896.00 to open at 18117.00. The index has penetrated the trading range between 18055.00 and 18255.00 again after breaking out of this range last Tuesday. As the price has turn the long-term MA50 into its new support, and the RSI has surpassed the average line, the Dow Jones 30 is expected to find its resistance at the upper boundary at 18255.00.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 18200.00 to 18255.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 08, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on November 08, 2016



Asian shares advanced while European stocks pared losses after opening lower, amidst opinion polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump. However, financial investors and traders’ caution was evident as the U.S dollar has weakened while gold rose. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the currency against a basket of its peers, has slid 0.14% to 97.60.

According to data from the Customs General Administration of China on Tuesday, China's exports and imports fell more than expected in October. In the last month, the country’s exports and import fell 7.3 percent and 1.4 percent from a year earlier, respectively. While imports extended losses for the second month in a row, exports fell for a seventh month in October, leaving the country with a trade surplus of $49.06 billion, versus forecasts of $51.70 billion.

Weak domestic and global demand has raised fears that a broader recovery in Chine which has been seen in recent months could falter, as analysts have warned that a property boom may be peaking. A red hot housing market, which has generated a significant share of the growth by boosting demand for building materials, has been under control by Chinese government.

Oil prices were higher on Tuesday after the OPEC Secretary- General Mohammed Barkindo stated that Russia is “on board” with an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreement to snap production to help re-balance the crude market. China imported 6.78 million barrels of oil from abroad in October, down 12.9 percent from the previous month. This is one of the lowest volumes this year on a daily basis.



Technicals

AUDJPY

Fig: AUDJPY H4 technical Chart

AUDJPY has been struggling around the major level at 80.600 since yesterday. The pair reached this level last Monday but failed to make a breakout. The Aussie had to retreat after peeking out of this handle yesterday as the market has entered the overbought zone. After a brief correction, AUDJPY is expected to breach the 80.600 resistance as the pair is being supported by two MAs placed below the price action.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 80.700 to 81.500 valid until 20:00 GMT November 08, 2016



EURCAD

Fig: EURCAD H4 technical Chart

EURCAD has been trapped between two MAs since the start of this week following a wide gap down on the market open on Monday. The pair has pulled back consistently after hitting the resistance that is the short-term MA20 and the support which is the long-term MA50. As the pair is lingering around the lower boundary and RSI is indicating a market in favor of sellers, the pair may fall further.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.47500 to 1.46800 valid until 20:00 GMT November 08, 2016



AUDNZD

Fig: AUDNZD H4 technical Chart

AUDNZD resumed the downside following a correction on Monday. The pair crawled back from the resistance at 1.05380 and is heading to the support at 23.6% retracement. Before reaching the 23.6% level, the pair need to break below the short-term 20-period MA. As can be observed from earlier cycle, 23.6% level is not a strong support. Therefore, the pair may fall to as low as 1.04500 once it breaks out of the dynamic support.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.04900 to 1.04500 valid until 20:00 GMT November 08, 2016



WTI

Fig: WTI H4 technical Chart

WTI crude price has been on a steady rise which helped the price action cross over the short-term MA20. The prices trimmed its slide on last Friday after having fallen for more than 2 weeks. The RSI index has been soaring to as high as 47.00. However, to confirm an uptrend, we may need to be patient until the RSI surpasses 50.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 45.25 to 46.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 08, 2016



Natural Gas

Fig: Natural gas H4 technical Chart

Natural Gas has dropped back below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 2.804 after moving indecisively around this level for nearly a week. The commodity has broken below the short-term MA20 as well and is heading downwards to the support at 2.670. RSI is pointing to the oversold zone, confirming the downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.750 to 2.670 valid until 20:00 GMT November 08, 2016



EURO STOXX 50

Fig: EURO STOXX 50 H4 Technical Chart

Euro Stoxx 50 extended its gains on Tuesday despite a small gap down on the market open. The index has been supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the short-term MA20. As can be observed from the indicator chart, RSI is heading upwards, suggesting further advances. The index is expected to test the resistance at 3040.00.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 3015.00 to 3040.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 08, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EUR/NZD signal by Option Banque

From 1.50800
Till 1.51350

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 8/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

SP500 Trade Idea by Option Banque

SP500 Spikes After Treading Water In Early Trade – Call Options Suggested

U.S. stocks rallied after struggling to find direction in early trading, as Americans cast their ballots amid polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump in the race to the White House.

The S&P 500 Index has risen nearly 0.6% on the day, set for its biggest back-to-back gain since June. Investors were awaiting the outcome of a tight U.S. presidential race. Polls will begin to close at 00:00 GMT on Wednesday, with the first meaningful results due about an hour later. The winner will be officially announced on the U.S. television networks a few hours later.

Updating the polls, Bloomberg reported that a provider of real-time analysis of voter turnout estimates that Clinton has earned more early votes than Trump in battleground states including Florida, Iowa and Nevada.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 2145.00 to 2155.00 valid until 20:00 November 09, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold Trade Idea by Option Banque

Gold Loses Ground On Strong Beliefs In A Clinton Victory

Gold edged lower on Tuesday, after suffering their sharpest one-day percentage loss in about five weeks, as markets were cautiously positioning themselves for a win by Hillary Clinton at the U.S. presidential elections.

The precious metal had dropped nearly 2 percent in Monday’s session in the wake of weekend news that the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) won’t bring charges against the Democratic candidate Clinton for using a private email server.

A win for Clinton is expected to trigger less volatility on the financial market and pave the way for the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. Gold is highly sensitive to the U.S rates as higher rates mean higher opportunity costs of holding gold as the metal provides no yield.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1279.00 to 1272.00 valid until 20:00 November 09, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 09, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on November 09, 2016

Asian shares started the day higher but soon declined as Republican Donald Trump consistently took the lead over his rival, Democrat Hillary Clinton throughout the vote count. Markets in Japan, New Zealand, Hong Kong, etc. fell the most since at least since June 24 after Trump stunned investors by winning the White House race. The unexpected result of the U.S. presidential election sent markets into turmoil reminiscent of Brexit vote.

As global risk securities tumbled, traders flocked into safe-haven assets including the yen and gold. Gold soared as high as $1337.16 per ounce – the highest since September 27, while the pair USDJPY fell to over one-month lows at 101.183. Uncertainties over upcoming changes in the framework of the world, in terms of economies, national security and foreign policy roiled global markets.

European stocks and U.S. equity futures also plunged on Wednesday in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise victory. Investors had priced a win for Clinton, who was expected to bring stability and continuity to the financial market, especially regarding Trump's protectionist. However, the sell-off calmed as speculators took profit and after Trump's acceptance speech which was considered to be balanced and conciliatory.

Crude price fell almost 4% to the lowest since August in Asian trading but recovered some of its losses later. Oil’s slide on early trade was also due to a report by industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude inventories rising by 4.4 million barrels last week. The U.S. government's official supply report is due for release later today.

 

[Option_Banque]

CAD/CHF signal by Option Banque

From 0.72880
Till 0.73150

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 9/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Dow Jones Trade Idea by Option Banque

Dow Jones Soars On Trump Win, Erasing Losses Seen In Futures Market

U.S. stocks turned higher on Wednesday, following a rout in equity futures in Asian trading hours after Republican Donald Trump had been elected the 45th president of the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added more than 180 points, or 1.0%, recovering from the worst selling in four months.

Traders have been assured by rising speculation that Donald Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress will pursue business-friendly policies.

Only 9 out of 30 issues making the index were trading lower. Pharmaceutical company Merch, Pfizer and manufacturer of construction machinery Caterpillar led gains, adding around 7% each.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 18485.00 to 18500.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Oil Market Outlook by Option Banque

Oil Recovers From Losses – Will Trump Be The Favourite For Oil Prices?

Crude oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday, recovering from initial fall after U.S. election result which called for a victory for Republican Party nominee Donald Trump.

U.S. oil prices fell almost 4% to as low as $43.05 per barrel in Asian trading hours before bouncing back to trade around $44.85 per barrel at the time of writing.
Weekly report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday was mixed as it showed a larger-than-expected rise in crude oil inventories but pointed to a decline in gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles.

Data from the U.S. EIA indicated that domestic crude supplies rose by 2.4 million barrels, while distillate fuel stocks were down 1.9 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 4. Reports from oil-field service company Baker Hughes Inc. last Friday showed U.S. oil production continued to rise as drillers add more rigs to the nation’s fields. The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by nine in the past week to 450.

The surprising U.S. election result sparked a flight from risky assets in Asian trade, which prompted traders from oil investments to find shelters at traditional havens such as gold or Japanese Yen. However, the fact that Donald had pledged to ease regulations that weighed on coal and petroleum sectors. In his presidential campaign, Trump had also promised to review a deal to lift sanctions on oil-rich Iran, while criticized Obama for participating in global efforts to curb climate change.

Crude prices pulled back from the 43.05 threshold where it also had to crawled back on twice since the start of September. As can be indicated by the RSI chart, the oil market rebounded near the oversold zone. The price is heading upwards but a resistance at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is within the sight and may cause the price action to go sideways or retreat, as the market is still in the bearish zone.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from46.50 to 46.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 09, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 10, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 10, 2016



Asian shares rebounded from their steepest slide since Brexit while European equities opened higher, boosted by Donald Trump’s spending pledges in the U.S. While MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose by the most since February, futures on the U.S. benchmarks climbed after swinging wildly in the last session. Trump has signaled he would spend more than $500 billion to rebuild U.S. infrastructure and also pledged to lower taxes.

Bonds tumbled while the U.S. dollar advanced amid speculation Trump’s spending plans will fuel inflation and spur economic growth. According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the market-implied probability of a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve, jumped above 80% after dropping to less than 50% as election results pointed to a Trump triumph.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Wednesday said that the case for gradual interest-rate increases “still makes sense to me.” St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard is expected comment on the policy outlook when he speaks at the Commerce Bank conference, in St. Louis on Thursday. Meanwhile, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will be attending an annual gathering of central bankers from the Americas in Santiago, Chile.

New Zealand’s dollar fell after its central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a fresh record low at 1.75%. The RBNZ expressed concern about the currency’s strength as a strengthening NZD has weighed on the growth of New Zealand’s inflation, which is standing at 0.4% and remains far below the RBNZ’s target band.

The Yuan slipped to a six-year low as investors concern about China’s exports that will be hit under Trump’s presidency. The new president of the U.S. had called China a "grand master" at currency manipulation and threatened tariffs of up to 45% on imports from the Asian nation during his campaign.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD collapsed after soaring sharply in early trade yesterday. The pair has paired all of its gains which had brought the price to as high as 1.12988 – the peak in the last two months. A steep fall caused Euro to breached three major Fibonacci levels in a row and may send the pair to test the support at 1.08500 again. RSI index pointing downwards and short-term MA20 crossing over long-term MA50 support the down moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.09000 to 1.08500 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF bottomed out at 0.95486 after falling off from as high as 0.98339 on Wednesday. The pair has recovered all of its losses before entered penetrating the trading range from 0.98600 to 0.99550. As the 20-period MA has converged with the 50-period MA, the pair is expected to re-attempt the upper boundary at 0.99550.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.98900 to 0.99550 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016



AUDJPY



Fig: AUDJPY D1 Technical Chart

AUDJPY is struggling around the solid resistance at 81.500.The pair has had to reverse lower against this level four times since it breached the handle five months ago. A slide yesterday sent the ADX index – the gauge measuring the trend strength – to below 20. However, two MAs placed below the price action are supporting the uptrend to surge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 81.900 to 84.000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural gas crawled back from the resistance at 2.720. The price has been under downward pressure from the short-term MA20 which may depress the price to as low as 2.573 – the 50% Fibonacci retracement. While the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, the ADX is at high level, indicating the downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.650 to 2.573 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold bounced back after hitting a couple of moving averages. The metal vacillated strongly yesterday and had surged to one-and-a-half-month high before paring all of its gains. RSI reached the 50-line as gold corrected from the support at 1271.00. However, the precious metal may fall deeper, as weighed by two MAs hanging above the price chart.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1280.00 to 1271.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016



SP500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

U.S. SP500 index has enjoyed its steepest one-day advance on record. SP500 breached the resistance at 2155.00 and is on track to retest its all-time record high level at 2192.86 logged in mid-August. Soaring ADX index with +DI at high level consolidates further increases.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 2182.00 to 2192.86 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

NZDUSD Trade Idea by Option Banque

NZDUSD Retreats Further After RBNZ Slashes Rates

New Zealand’s dollar extended losses to the second consecutive day versus its American counterpart after the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a fresh record low on Thursday.

Speaking in a conference after lowering the official cash rate to 1.75 percent, Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said that the RBNZ might not need another cut, but left the door for further stimulus open, saying “numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

Governor Wheeler expressed the central bank’s concern about the local currency’s strength against the back ground that the New Zealand dollar has been strengthening versus the U.S dollar since September 2015. Therefore, “a decline in the exchange rate is needed”, Wheeler said, to boost inflation which has been below the RBNZ’s target band for eight straight quarters.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 0.72500 to 0.72100 valid until 20:00 GMT November 10, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP Boosted As U.S.-U.K. Would Remain “Close Allies”

GBP Boosted As U.S.-U.K. Would Remain “Close Allies”

The British Pound (GBP) gained ground versus the U.S. dollar on Thursday, bolstered by a recent phone call between Theresa May and Donald Trump, which has reinforced a future UK-US trade deal that had been implied by Trump’s Trade Advisor Dan DiMicco.

British Prime Minister Theresa May spoke to President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his “hard-fought election campaign and victory.” According to the statement, May highlighted her intention to strengthen investment and bilateral trade with the U.S. in light of Brexit. She also noted that Britain and the U.S. “have always stood together as close allies.”

Mr. Trump, in turn, “strongly agreed” with this claim, saying the United Kingdom is “a very, very special place for me and our country” and invited Ms. May to visit him as soon as possible after he takes office in January.

Speaking on what Trump would do if elected, DiMicco stated last month that the UK would go the ‘front of the queue’ when it came to foreign trade agreements.
Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.25400 to 1.26000 valid until 20:00 November 11, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

SILVER Signal by Option Banque

From 18.600
Till 18.350

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 10/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold Market Outlook by Option Banque

Gold Sets For Weekly Drop As Investors Mull Over Trump Policies

Gold prices were on track to close this week lower for the first time in four weeks, down over 3 percent to trade around $1250.00 per ounce. The precious metal has been weighed by the economic outlook that is inclined to faster growth of inflation after Donald Trump unexpectedly won this week’s US presidential election on Wednesday.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said on Thursday that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more quickly if the government cut taxes or reinforced spending to boost economic growth. The latest US jobs data which showed the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, strengthened the labor market’s outlook.

Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, as higher rates lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Meanwhile a firmer the dollar makes the yellow metal less affordable to buyers holding other currencies.

According to SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, gold holdings at this fund dropped 1.40% to 941.68 tons on Thursday from 955.03 tons on Wednesday.

Fig: GOLD D1 Technical chart

After peeking out of the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1297.59 on Wednesday, the metal pulled back to re-attempt the other Fibonacci retracement at 38.2%, the level that supported gold prices in early October. Long lower shadows in recent candles showed that buyers are preventing gold prices from falling too deep. RSI index that is pointing downwards may support for the downtrend but the 38.2% should be watched as a firm stance for gold to reverse higher.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1258.00 to 1250.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/CHF signal by Option Banque

From 1.24000
Till 1.25000

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 11/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 11, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on November 11, 2016



Selloff in emerging markets deepened on Friday as investors concerned amid concern higher U.S. interest rates under incoming President Donald Trump will spark capital outflows from developing economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.4 percent on views that Trump's tax cuts and spending plans will push up inflation, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to hike rate.

On Wall Street overnight, Dow Jones industrial average smashed through its previous record high set in August by almost 1 percent. Another U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index added 0.2 percent but the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.8 percent as traders assessed Trump’s plan on immigration policy could prevent Silicon Valley from attracting talent from around the world as it does now.

Industrial metals extended their biggest weekly jump in five years with copper having rallied for the third consecutive week. The red metal has risen nearly 30% over the last three week and 18% since the start of this week to reach 17-month highs at $2.6740/lb. Chinese government’s new plan calling for additional spending on building and construction projects and the Donald Trump’s pledges on infrastructure improvements are reasons behind the rally.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd witnessed Singles' Day sales surpassing last year's 91.2 billion yuan ($13.36 billion) total with nearly nine hours left on the clock. The annual event on Nov. 11 offers a benchmark for Alibaba's performance and an insight into China's swing to online shopping, especially via smartphones. The company on Friday said that 84% of sales in the first two hours were via mobile devices, up from last year.



Technicals

USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been on a steady rise after trading sideways for more than 3 weeks. The pair reached its highest level since late-February on Wednesday at 1.35242 and is approaching the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.35731. Two MAs placed below the price action and an edging-higher RSI are supporting for the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.35000 to 1.35730 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD resumed its downtrend after rebounding from the firm support at 0.75600. A short correction could not sustain the pair to trade above the 23.6% level. The Aussie fell back below this Fibonacci retracement again and looked set to breach the support at 0.75600 as the market is in favor of sellers. MA20 has penetrated the MA50 from above, indicating extended downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.75600 to 0.75100 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY pulled back as the bullish momentum failed to support to pair to surpass the highest level since mid-October at 79.645. The price has broken below the 23.6% level at 78.636 but is facing a dynamic support which is the short-term MA20. However, with two lines of the Stochastic chart are pointing to the oversold zone, CADJPY is expected to cross over the MA20 to test the next Fib support at 38.2%.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 78.500 to 78.000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural Gas futures price keeps falling under downward pressure from two MAs moving above the price action. The short-term MA20 has consistently forced the price to reverse lower to approach the 50.0% again. Last time, this level has support the natural gas but this time, a breakout is likely to happen. Coupled with ADX that is soaring, a gap between +DI and –DI lines consolidating further declines.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.600 to 2.520 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI has been under downward pressure from two MAs hanging above the price action. The price crawled back after hitting the long-term MA50 at 45.47 and has fallen below the short-term MA20 as well. With RSI remaining in the bearish zone and pointing down, the crude price is expected to retest the support at 43.05.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 44.10 to 43.05 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016



FTSE100



Fig: FTSE 100 H4 Technical Chart

U.K. FTSE100 index has dropped back to the 23.6% retracement from the major threshold 7,000. The price action has crossed over both MAs and is likely to breach below the 23.6% level as can be seen from the chart, recent candles have been under strong bearish force with almost no or very short upper shadow. %K line is taking the lead over the %D line, suggesting further down moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 6731.00 to 6650.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Crude Trade Idea by Option Banque

How Will OPEC Cut Its Output? Oil Investors Think It’s Hard

U.S WTI crude oil price edged lower on Friday, looking set for a third-consecutive weekly decline amidst investor concerns about the possibility of a final agreement later this month to curtail production from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers.

WTI crude fell to the lowest since mid-September at $43.02 per barrel, heading for a weekly loss of roughly 0.8% after a monthly report from OPEC issued Friday said production from the group’s members continued to climb in October.

According to the data, OPEC’s output as a group jumped by 240,000 barrels per day to 33.64 million bpd last month, with Nigeria, Libya and Iraq blamed for the increase. The report made it harder for investors to believe that OPEC will be able to complete a plan reached in late September to snap output to between 32.5 million and 33 million bpd.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 43.50 to 43.10 valid until 20:00 GMT November 11, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

After Trump’s Win, Economic Data And Fed’s Rate Hike Under The Spotlight

After Trump’s Win, Economic Data And Fed’s Rate Hike Under The Spotlight

After a historic week with Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election, markets may refocus on economic data and any signs from the Federal Reserve (Fed) that the U.S. interest rates will be increased in December.

The greenback has had an unforgettable Wednesday last week when it dropped strongly throughout the vote count process which pointed to a lead of the Republican Party nominee. However, the currency soon reclaimed its lost strength in the wake of President-elect Trump’s plans to end the country’s years of fiscal austerity.

The dollar hit its highest levels in nine months against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday, amid mounting expectations for a December rate hike. For the week, the U.S. dollar index advanced more than 2.0%, boosted by hopes that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will bolster economic growth and inflation, which in turn will prompt the Fed to tighten borrowing costs.

On Friday, Vice Chair Fischer said the central bank was close to achieving its two goals with the case of a hike relatively strong. Indeed, while the U.S. economy is close to full employment, with the jobless rate below 5%, Trump’s election promise to cut taxes and improve infrastructure could provide a big boost to both growth and inflation.

According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, investors are currently pricing an 82% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s final meeting of this year.
Official U.S. data on Thursday will likely show consumer price index inflation picked up slightly last month, up 0.4 percent on the month and 1.6 percent on the same month last year. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is expected to hit 2.2 percent.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to a number of the U.S. economic indicators including retail sales and so-called core retail sales on Tuesday, Producer Price Index and Industrial Production on Wednesday, and Building Permits and Consumer Price Index on Thursday. However, the focus next week will be on congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday before the Joint Economic Committee. Fresh indications on whether interest rates will rise next month will be closely watched.

Sterling closed higher for the second consecutive week, rising nearly 600 pips against the U.S. dollar since its lows in late October. The Cable has enjoyed a steady rise thanks to short covering, rising gilt yields and fading concerns about the U.K. economy post Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday called President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his “hard-fought election campaign and victory.” According to the statement, May highlighted her intention to strengthen investment and bilateral trade with the U.S. in light of Brexit. She also noted that Britain and the U.S. “have always stood together as close allies.”

Mr. Trump, in turn, “strongly agreed” with this claim, saying the United Kingdom is “a very, very special place for me and our country” and invited Ms. May to visit him as soon as possible after he takes office in January.

Sterling will be in focus with data on CPI and Inflation Report Hearings on Tuesday, reports on employment on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday along with speeches from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Nemat Shafik and newly appointed member of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee Michael Saunders.

In contrast to the Pound’s rally, the euro dropped to its lowest level since January on Friday, as U.S. dollar continuing to power higher. Most of next week’s Eurozone economic reports are second-tier, except for preliminary estimates of third quarter growth on Tuesday. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak on Monday and Friday. His views will be market moving.

Among commodity currencies, the New Zealand dollar fell deepest since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to a fresh record low on Thursday. The central bank said that it didn’t feel it’s necessary to cut rates again, but left the door for further stimulus open, saying “numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

In the coming week, investors will be eagerly waiting for reports on New Zealand’s retail sales and inflation numbers.

The Australian dollar was driven by commodity prices in the past week. The Aussie hit seven-month highs at 0.77771 against the U.S. dollar, boosted by the rally in copper and iron ore prices. However, the pair failed to sustain its bullish sentiment and fell off to one-month lows at 0.75246. The RBA minutes published on Tuesday and Australian employment reports due on Thursday are the main focus next week.

No major economic reports were released from Canada last week; therefore, the currency was driven by the movement of the U.S. dollar and the oil prices. With oil stumbling and Trump’s shock win which puts the North American Free Trade Agreement at risk, the Canadian dollar dropped to the lowest since late February on Friday. In the week ahead, the Statistics Canada will report about manufacturing sales for October on Wednesday, and consumer prices for the same month on Friday.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 14, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 14, 2016



The U.S. dollar hit a nine-month peak in Asia on Monday while shares of developing nations fell, as the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election on November 08th sent Treasury yields to multi-month highs. The outlook of faster domestic inflation and wider budget deficits in the U.S. triggered a massive sell off in Treasuries. Yields on the U.S. 10-year notes on Monday climbed to their highest since January at 2.21%, while 30-year government bonds reached 3%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar extended gains, driven by speculations that Trump’ spending plan will nudge the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. According to the dollar futures contracts, investors are betting on an 84% chance that the Fed will make a move on its rates at its final meeting for the year next month.

In commodities, the rampant U.S. dollar depressed gold as the greenback-dominated asset becomes more expensive for purchasers holding other currencies. Gold lost 0.8% to $1,212 an ounce. However, industrial metals extended their bull run, with copper adding more than 1%.

Japan's economic growth was reported to expand for a third straight quarter, comfortably beating expectations in the July-September period. According to the Japanese Cabinet Office on Monday, the world's third-largest economy expanded by an annualized 2.2% in the third quarter, faster than the 0.9% increase markets had expected, as a rebound in exports compensated for continued weak domestic activity.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained his optimistic view of the economy, which has been boosted by an improvement in the global economy. Nonetheless, he also acknowledged that fragile private consumption rendered companies hesitant to raise the prices of their goods and services. This is delaying achievement of the central bank's 2% inflation target.

Coupled with fears that president-elect Donald Trump will impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, disappointing retail sales growth is increasingly clouding the country economy’s outlook. Although fixed-asset investment quickened slightly in October thanks to the government’s spending on infrastructure to support growth, retail sales growth slowed to 10%, missing estimates for 10.7%.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Euro fell deeper below the 1.28500 resistance on Monday and is approaching the lowest since early-January at 1.07150. As can be observed from the ADX chart, while the ADX index is on a rise, the –DI line has been pointing downwards, which indicates a weakening downtrend. This is understandable as the market has neared the oversold zone and a pullback is easy to happen.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.07150 to 1.07800 valid until 20:00 GMT November 14, 2016



AUDNZD



Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD has breached the 38.2% retracement at 1.06300 and is attempting the resistance at 1.07000 with a strong uptrend. ADX index has soared above 20 level, confirming the up moves. While RSI has neared the overbought zone, a wide gap between the +DI and –DI line may fuel the pair to edge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.06500 to 1.07000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 14, 2016



EURCAD


Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD has broken below the 23.6% but it is struggling around the support at 1.45900 where it failed to cross over last week. Two MAs lingering above the price action has restrained the bullish sentiment and been exerting downward on the pair, consolidating further declines.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.45600 to 1.44800 valid until 20:00 GMT November 14, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver on one hand failed to surpass the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 17.418, but on the other hand, the metal has been supported by the handle at 17.075. This level has forced silver to reverse higher three times since early June. However, the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from above, confirming the downtrend. A breakout is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 17.070 to 16.780 valid until 20:00 GMT November 14, 2016



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

U.K. Brent crude resumed its down moves following a small gap up on the opening. Dragged down by two MAs hanging above the price action, the commodity is on the verge of falling as low as the 38.2% retracement. The market remains in the bearish zone, with the divergence between the –DI and +DI lines.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 44.50 to 43.70 valid until 20:00 GMT November 14, 2016



SP500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

Sp500 futures index opened the new week with a gap up on Monday after pulled back from the support at 2155.00 on Friday. The index has experienced a correction after soaring more than 6% last Wednesday. ADX line is heading down but the +DI has crossed over the –DI from below, suggesting an extended uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 2179.00 to 2188.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 14, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EUR/AUD signal by Option Banque

From 1.43000
Till 1.42400

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 14/11/2016