Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

AUD/JPY signal by Option Banque

From 80.500
Till 80.785

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 1/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Dow Jones Trade Idea by Option Banque

Dow Jones Edges Lower, Apple Leads Losses

U.S Dow Jones 30 index inched lower on Tuesday with only five out of 30 issues trading higher.

Chevron topped the market, up 1.36% to $106.17 per share after having been upgraded to overweight from equal weight by Morgan Stanley. The bank expected that growing cash flow will support Chevron’s dividend, not to mention the fact that Chevron is the most highly leveraged company among oil majors to recovering crude prices.

On the other side, Apple Inc. shares turned sharply lower on Tuesday, leading decliners on the Dow Jones index. Apple’s shares look set to suffer a fifth straight loss after the technology giant reported disappointing quarterly results. According to market sources, demand for Apple’s iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus was strong in the U.S. However, there were signs of softness in China with lower interest in the 7 model than for the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s models.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 18040.00 to 18000.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

FTSE Market Outlook by Option Banque

Dragged By Standard Chartered And BP, FTSE 100 Pares Earlier Gains

U.K shares opened higher on Tuesday, powered by better-than-expected quarterly results from Royal Dutch Shell and. Overall sentiment was also boosted by news that Bank of England governor Mark Carney would remain in his post until June 2019. However, losses led by Standard Chartered and BP limited gains.

Shell shares added nearly 4% after the Anglo-Dutch oil giant reported its quarterly net income at $1.4 billion, up from a loss of $6.1 billion in the third quarter of 2015. Royal Dutch Shell’s adjusted earnings, which strip out one-off items, rose to $2.8 billion in the three-month period to September. The figure beat both result of a year earlier that stood at $2.4 billion and analysts’ expectations of a $1.8 billion profit.

Shell B shares topped the market, up 3.95% to 2,198.57p per share, while Shell A issues were runner-up at 2,111.00p per share, up 3.56% from opening price.

On the contrary, Shell’s oil giant BP witnessed its shares dropped after reporting a fall in third-quarter underlying earnings. Despite outperforming analysts’ consensus of a $686 million adjusted earnings, which exclude one-time charges or infrequent events, BP’s underlying earnings fell to $933 million from $1.8 billion a year earlier. BP shares lost 2.22% even its third-quarter profit rose 35% thanks to cost-cutting plans.

Nonetheless, the biggest faller on the market was Standard Chartered, whose shares were down 6% to 668p. New chief executive Bill Winters admitted “income and profit levels are not yet acceptable”, saying that revenue was not rising fast enough. Winters added that the Bank of England had ordered it to hold more capital.

The London-listed bank reported a decline in its income in the third quarter from the same period a year ago. The lender generated $3.47 billion of income in the July-September period, down 6% from $3.68 billion for the same period a year ago. Additionally, Standard Chartered may be imposed with sanctions from the Hong Kong authorities over its handling of a stock market flotation, which adds to the list of regulatory problems at the emerging-market-focused lender.

Fig: FTSE 100 H4 Technical Chart

The U.K.’s FTSE 100 has been kept range-bound for nearly one week. The index has fluctuated between the support at 6935.00 and the resistance at 7000.00 and has been under the downward pressures exerted from two MAs hanging above the price action. RSI index retreated from the neutral line, suggesting a market in favor of sellers.

FTSE Trade Suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 6955.00 to 6935.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 1, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 2, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 2, 2016

Asian shares tumbled on Wednesday, following U.S equities’ footsteps amid polls indicating a closing gap between Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton on the race to the White House. Some recent polls even showed Trump ahead with 46 percent support compared to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 45 percent. This is the first time since May that the Republican nominee has taken the lead, which resulted from a lack of enthusiasm among Clinton supporters.

Against the background of share selloff, safe-haven assets rallied. The yen rose for a second day, while the Swiss franc and gold were approaching their highest levels in almost a month. The greenback, which is typically considered as one of the safe havens, slumped today. The U.S dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro and lost ground versus the yen overnight ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision which will be announced later on Wednesday.

New Zealand dollar reached two-week highs in the wake of tightening labor market. In a report released earlier today, Statistics New Zealand said that the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in three months to September, from 5.1% in the preceding quarter. Meanwhile, employment grew 6.1% on a yearly basis and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter with an increasing labor force participation.

Crude oil prices fell for a fourth day on Wednesday following industry data showed a surprise build in inventories. The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported crude stockpiles increased by 9.3 million barrels in the week to Oct. 28, more than nine times the amount expected by analysts polled by Reuters.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

GBPUSD has been trading sideways since the start of this week after a short rally from the low at 1.21426. The pair is on track to hit the upper boundary at 1.23300. While the short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from below, the RSI index is moving in the bullish zone, supporting potential upbeat moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.22500 to 1.23300 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY has broken through two major Fibonacci levels at 38.2% and 50.0% and is heading downwards towards the 61.8%. The pair failed to bounce back from the 50.0% level at 77.519 and is forecast to fall deeper as signal for a continual downtrend has come from two MAs which have just converged. A low-level RSI and a soaring ADX consolidate the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 77.400 to 77.020 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

After a correction on Monday that brought the pair near the 23.6% retracement, EURCAD has surged strongly. However, as the 38.2% level is within the sight, the rally seems limited. Furthermore, RSI index has penetrated the overbought market while +DI is heading down, suggesting potential reversal. Hence, 38.2% level can be aimed as near-term target.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.48300 to 1.48800 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been on a strong rally since it bound back from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The precious metal is approaching another important Fibonacci level at 23.6% which is at 1297.68. Gold’s bullish sentiment has been fueled by two MAs placed below the price action. However, as market has entered the overbought zone and buyers seem to get week (as indicated by the ADX chart), the yellow metal may move sideways or pull back from the 23.6% handle unless it gets a boost from the fundamental side.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1292.50 to 1297.68 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI D1 Technical Chart

U.S. WTI is about to hit the 23.6% retracement at 46.00 which is also the lowest level since September 28th. A strong plunge has sent the commodity to trade below both the DMA20 and DMA50 and brought the market into the bearish territory. Crude investors are waiting for U.S official stocks data due later today. A larger-than-expected increase in U.S stockpiles may damp the commodity price to as low as 44.50.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 46.00 to 44.50 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical Chart

The U.S. NASDAQ 100 index fell to as low as 4723.63 yesterday. The index simultaneously breached the support at 4700.00 before pulling back from the lowest level since mid-September. However, the price failed to get back above the 4700.00 handle and may create a gap down following the selloff of global stock market. The support at 23.6% level is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 4745.00 to 4660.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

CAD/CHF signal by Option Banque

CAD/CHF signal by Option Banque

From 0.72650
Till 0.72400

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 2/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

NZD/USD Market Outlook by Option Banque

Strong Employment Results Help NZD Crash Already Weakened USD

New Zealand dollar soared to the highest in nearly two weeks on Wednesday after data of a tightening local labor market magnified Kiwi’s strength against an already weak U.S dollar. The pair extended its gains for the second day amid uncertainties related to the outcome of the US election.

The Kiwi has surged nearly 1% since the Statistics New Zealand reported the country’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest level since 2008. New Zealand’s unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in three months to September, from 5.1% in the preceding quarter. Meanwhile, employment grew 6.1% on a yearly basis and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, beating expectations calling for a growth rate of 5.4% y/y and the 0.5% q/q/.

According to the report, more New Zealanders entered the labor force last quarter, which pushed the participation rate up to 70.1% versus the 69.7% expected and 69.7% recorded in in April-June period. Fortunately, the number of people employed in NZ outpaced the number of people entering the workforce. Employment rose 1.4% from the second quarter, following an increase at the pace of 2.4% in the second quarter.

With strong data today, investors expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver a less dovish stance in next week’s policy decision.

Meanwhile, in spite of rising expectations that the U.S Federal Reserve may increase rate by the year’s end, the greenback could not sustain its bullish sentiment. The U.S. dollar has weakened since the Federal Bureau of Investigation on Friday announced that it had reopened a probe of Clinton’s misuse of private e-mail while Secretary of State.

The investigation was reopened just days before the presidential election on November 08th. Taking advantages of decreasing enthusiasm among Clinton supporters, Republican nominee Donald Trump has overtaken Clinton in polls for the first time since May. The resurgence of Trump has triggered a sell-off in global stock markets where investors generally view Clinton as the more market-friendly candidate.

Today, all eyes will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve that is forecast to leave interest rates unchanged and offer guidance to the timing of the next rate hike.

Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The New Zealand dollar has rocketed since it breached the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 0.71618. The short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from below earlier today, supporting for the uptrend. With ADX surging to as high as 44.97, the upmoves are expected to extend. But the rally seems limited as the RSI has entered the overbought zone. The pair may find its resistance at the major level 0.73000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.72600 to 0.73000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 02, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Crude Trade Idea by Option Banque

WTI Crude Falls Deeper On Swelling U.S Stockpiles

The U.S’ West Texas Intermediate crude for December contracts plummeted to five-week lows on Wednesday after official data showed that U.S. crude stockpiles, on a weekly basis, jumped by the most on record.

December WTI crude dropped to as low as $44.95 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange following report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration that showed an increase of 14.4 million barrels in domestic crude supplies in the week ended Oct. 28. The EIA also reported total domestic crude production rose by 18,000 bpd to 8.522 million bpd.

Wednesday data beat both estimates by analysts which expected a 1.9 million-barrel climb, and reading by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday that forecast a rise of 9.3 million barrels.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from to valid until 20:00 GMT November 3, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 3, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on November 3, 2016

Global stocks’ selloff deepened on Thursday as a tightening race for the U.S. presidency triggered uncertainties about the outcome of Nov. 8 vote, which prompted investors to flock into traditional havens such as Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and gold. U.S. equity index futures joined the U.S dollar and the Mexican peso on the defensive after Fox News reported that a FBI probe related to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s misuse of private e-mail was intensifying.

Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday did not hit the market as hard as usual, since the central bank decided to stand pat on its monetary policy as markets expected. Fed kept the option open for a hike by year-end, stating in its statement that it needs “some” further evidence of improving inflation and employment before raising interest rates.

The British Pound is on the verge of wide fluctuation today as investors are waiting for data release on the country’s service PMI and the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement which comes with the U.K’s quarterly Inflation Report. Markets expect no changes made to the BOE’s key rates and will focus on the bank’s economic forecasts, particularly expectations for inflation.

But before that, the Cable may vacillate strongly as three senior judges in London will publish their decision on whether the Parliament can play a role in the process of triggering Article 50. If Prime Minister Theresa May cannot begin Britain’s exit from the European Union without permission from Parliament, the process could be delayed by more than a year.



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has been trapped in a trading range for almost a month. The pair has slid since it nearly hit the upper boundary at 0.90555. The price action has crossed over two MAs, consolidating the downtrend. RSI that surpassed the 50 line also supports the down moves. The pair may fall as low as 0.88800 – which is the lower boundary.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.89500 to 0.88800 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has been struggling around the one-month highs at 0.73000 after a strong rally from the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Bulls have lost their steam which sent the prices to move sideways. The upside seems limited as the market has been overblown while the major level at 0.73600 is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.73600 to 0.73000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016



EURNZD



Fig: EURNZD H4 Technical Chart

As can be seen from the chart, EURNZD entered a short correction after falling to as low as 1.51692. However, a few up moves failed to help the pair breach the 23.6% level at 1.52546. The pair pulled back at this handle and is heading towards the 0.0% Fibonacci retracement. With RSI indicating a market in favor of bears, the pair is anticipated to fall deeper.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.51800 to 1.51300 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver fell back below the 38.2% level after breaking above this handle on Tuesday. The metal hit one-month high at 18.716 before giving up its bullish strength and reversing lower. Silver is struggling with the short-term MA20 when the market has not entered the bearish zone yet, which is pointed out by the RSI. Therefore, there a chance that silver may bounce back after the current correction.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18.300 to 18.700 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016



Sugar



Fig: SUGAR H4 Technical Chart

Sugar resumed its downtrend after a correction from the low of 21.10. Buyers jumped in as a long streak of declines had brought the market into the oversold zone and opened the chance for buying the dips. However, with downward pressure from two MAs hanging above the chart, sugar is expected to extend its slide.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 21.50 to 21.10 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016



CAC 40



Fig: CAC 40 H4 Technical Chart

France’s CAC 40 has broken through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from below after falling for four days in a row to as low as 4397.00. The index pulled back from the overbought zone and is heading upwards to test the resistance at 4495.00. As the %K line is taking the lead, CAC 40 is expected to surge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4452.60 to 4495.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

NASDAQ 100 signal by Option Banque

From 4697.00
Till 4660.00

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 3/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Natural Gas Trade Idea by Option Banque

Can Upbeat Storage Data Save Natural Gas From Warm Weather’s Threat?

U.S. natural gas futures snapped a three-day losing streak on Thursday, after government data showed that supplies of the commodity rose slightly less than forecast last week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that natural gas storage in the U.S. added 54 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 28, which is below market expectations for an increase of 55 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. storage now stood at 3.963 trillion cubic feet, up just 1.2% from a year ago and 4.4% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Since October 18th, natural gas price has slumped by nearly 30% amid forecast that temperatures will remain at above-normal levels through at least mid-November.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 2.790 to 2.730 valid until 20:00 GMT November 04, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Gold Market Outlook by Option Banque

Gold Edges Higher As Investors Look For Shelter – Call Option Suggested

Gold ticked higher on Thursday thanks to a weakening dollar which has been under pressure from uncertainty about the outcome of a tight U.S. presidential race. The race to the White House continued to be a key factor driving global markets.

Although two latest polls indicated that Democrat Hillary Clinton is still favored to win, the margin of victory has narrowed. The resurgence of Republican rival Donald Trump just days ahead of the Nov. 8 election rattled investor interest in riskier investments.

Stocks lost ground in the morning session with all three benchmark indexes trading in the red. The S&P 500 Index traded near a four-month low, looking set to close lower for the eighth consecutive trading session, and on course for its longest losing streak since 2008. While S&P 500 shed 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slid by 0.6%. As a result, demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold rose steadily.

On the other hand, dollar retreated against a basket of six main currencies ahead of non-farm payrolls data, which will be released on Friday. Employers are expected to gain 175,000 jobs in October.

Fig: GOLD D1 Technical Chart

Gold is struggling around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1297.00 per ounce. After moving sideways for nearly two weeks below the firm resistance at 1275.00, the precious metal breached that handle successfully and tends to break above the 23.6% level. As can be seen from the chart, this bar had previously forced gold prices to reverse lower two times which are in May and in late-June.

Therefore, to surpass this 23.6% level, gold may need a fresh boost from fundamental side. We are looking forwards to a wide fluctuation in the gold market with the U.S NFR tomorrow.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1300.00 to 1305.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 03, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 04, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 04, 2016

Stock markets extended their selloffs on Friday as investor confidence in riskier assets has been sapped ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election. According to latest polls, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained her lead over her rival Donald Trump. However, the presidential race may be tightening just days before Tuesday's vote. Wall Street sagged on Thursday, with the S&P 500's eighth straight losing session marking its longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent on the last trading day of the week, heading for its worst close in seven weeks. Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 1.3% after trading resumed following a holiday on Thursday. Dragged down by the resurgence of the safe-haven yen, the Japanese benchmark has lost 3.1% for the week, the biggest weekly drop in four months.

In its November Monetary Policy Statement released on Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its output growth and inflation forecasts virtually unchanged, and indicated its contentment with the current cash rate of 1.5%. The central bank expected GDP growth to average between 2.5% and 3.5% to June 2017, and core inflation increasing to 1.5 – 2.5% over the next two years. Stability in Chinese economy, higher commodity prices and record residential building approvals are expected to underpin Australian growth.

In the U.S., the nonfarm payrolls report due later today is forecast to show employers added 175,000 jobs in October. U.S. data on Thursday showed that services industry activity cooled last month amid a slowdown in new orders and hiring. The ISM's non-manufacturing registered at 54.8, below both expectations of 56.0 and last month's 57.1 reading.



Technicals

CADCHF



Fig: CADCHF H4 Technical Chart

CADCHF has been struggling above the 50.0% retracement at 0.72680 since it breached this level yesterday. The pair failed to soar higher as the short-term MA20 is exerting downward pressure on the price. The pair may dip below the 50.0% level again and find its support at 0.72400.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.72650 to 0.72400 valid until 20:00 November 04, 2016



AUDJPY



Fig: AUDJPY H4 Technical Chart

Excluding a spike yesterday, the pair has moving sideways for nearly three-day following a steep drop from three-and-a-half-month highs at 80.624. The slide has helped the pair breached the support that is an upwards slopping trendline. With downward pressure from 2 MAs hanging above the price action and the fact that the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, the pair is expected to break below the 79.000 support.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 79.000 to 78.700 valid until 20:00 November 04, 2016



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF reversed lower after the price action hit the short-term MA20 at 0.97516. The market has escaped from the oversold zone but it still remains in the bearish area. As indicated by the RSI which is pointing downwards, bears are overwhelmingly dominant on the market, suggesting further downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 0.97400 to 0.96930 valid until 20:00 November 04, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

After drifting lower to fall back below the 38.2% level at 18.289, silver rebounded and surpassed this handle again. The silver market survived from falling into the bearish territory, which is indicated by RSI index which crawled back from 50 line. Silver is expected to retest the high at 18.700 logged on Wednesday.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18.350 to 18.700 valid until 20:00 November 04, 2016



COFFEE



Fig: Coffee H4 Technical Chart

Coffee has risen strongly since it pulled back from the support at 160.60. As can be seen from the chart, this price action has crossed over the MA20, consolidating the uptrend. As both RSI and ADX indexes are on a rise, the uptrend is strong. Coffee is expected to test the high at 166.70 logged one week ago.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 165.60 to 166.70 valid until 20:00 November 04, 2016



Sp500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

SP500 index fell off from 23.6% level on Wednesday, recording the first time the price has fallen below this level since early-July. While the %K line and the %D line have neared the 20 threshold, ADX is still rising, supporting the downtrend. RSI may find its support at 2072.00.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 2085.00 to 2072.00 valid until 20:00 November 04, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USDCAD trade idea by Option Banque

Stumbling Oil Prices Save USDCAD From U.S Election Jitters

USDCAD rallied on Friday, heading for closing the week higher as a slump in crude prices failed to give the Canadian dollar a boost even though the greenback has weakened since the start of the week.

The U.S. dollar was further supported to gain ground versus the Lonnie after report from the U.S. Labor Department showed payrolls climbed by 161,000 last month. The October employment increase was just shy of economists’ forecast of 173,000, while the prior month’s figure was revised higher to a gain of 191,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell below 5% and wages rose 2.8% over the past year, which marked the fastest 12-month increase since June 2009.

Healthy gains in employment and the acceleration in average hourly earnings have strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise rate next month. However, given the election on Tuesday and rising uncertainties over the presidential race, the U.S. dollar’s up moves seem not so strong.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.34450 to 1.34700 valid until 20:00 GMT November 04, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

CAC40 signal by Option Banque

From 4400.00
Till 4370.00

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 4/11/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Brent Crude Market Outlook by Opttion Banque

Crude Prices Nose-Dive As Supply Glut Remains Stubborn

Oil prices plummeted on Friday, on course for their sixth straight day of falls, as they have been dragged lower by concerns over a global glut that may last longer than expected. Coupled with U.S. crude inventories that swung back to an expansion, timid demand and doubts over the ability of producers to finalize the output cut deal are weighing on crude prices.

According to the report from the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday, crude oil stockpiles soared more than 14 million barrels in the U.S last week, recording the largest build ever. The unexpected increase in supplies came in following two weeks of declines. Also in the U.S., the Colonial Pipeline carrying gasoline, which was disrupted this week by an explosion, is expected to restart Line 1 this weekend.

Oil extended losses after Reuters reported Saudis and Iranian clashing again at a meeting of OPEC experts last week. As stated by four OPEC sources that were present at the meeting, Saudi Arabia threatened to raise oil output steeply to 11 million barrels per day and even 12 million bpd, if Iran refuses to join with other oil producers to curb supply.

However, the rumor was quickly squashed by OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo who denied reports of tensions resurfacing between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and stated on Friday that “Their contributions as usual were constructive”. Nevertheless, investors remained doubtful that the OPEC and non-OPEC producer Russia can agree on a meaningful output cut this month.

Adding to crude oil woes, British bank Barclays said demand for the commodity was timid. The bank claimed that crude oil demand growth in three months to September was less than a third that of the year-ago quarter. Barclays estimated last quarter’s growth below 1 million bpd and forecast the consumption rise for the last quarter is not much higher.

Fig: OIL D1 technical chart

Crude oil has been on a steep decline, which helped the price action break below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 46.00. The prices pared most of their gains in the period from September 28 to October 19 – the rally that sent crude prices to over one-year highs. Crude prices are heading downwards to the 38.2% level but before that, they will have to face a strong support at 43.00.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 43.90 to 43.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

USDCAD trade idea by Option Banque

Stumbling Oil Prices Save USDCAD From U.S Election Jitters

USDCAD rallied on Friday, heading for closing the week higher as a slump in crude prices failed to give the Canadian dollar a boost even though the greenback has weakened since the start of the week.

The U.S. dollar was further supported to gain ground versus the Lonnie after report from the U.S. Labor Department showed payrolls climbed by 161,000 last month. The October employment increase was just shy of economists’ forecast of 173,000, while the prior month’s figure was revised higher to a gain of 191,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate fell below 5% and wages rose 2.8% over the past year, which marked the fastest 12-month increase since June 2009.

Healthy gains in employment and the acceleration in average hourly earnings have strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise rate next month. However, given the election on Tuesday and rising uncertainties over the presidential race, the U.S. dollar’s up moves seem not so strong.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.34450 to 1.34700 valid until 20:00 GMT November 04, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Politics To Overshadow Market Fundamentals In Quiet Data Week

Politics To Overshadow Market Fundamentals In Quiet Data Week

Global financial markets were rattled last week after polls showed the U.S. presidential election race between Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican nominee Donald Trump was tightening. At the close in NYSE, the S&P 500 index declined 0.17% while the NASDAQ Composite index lost 0.24%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.24% to hit a new 3-months low.

Overall, opinion polls still give Clinton the edge in national terms, but a tightening race has sapped market confidence and weighed on the dollar. A solid U.S. employment report for October failed to prevent to greenback from sliding against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential elections.

The Labor Department on Friday said that the U.S. economy added 161,000 jobs in October from the prior month. Economists had expected 175,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate dropped back to 4.9% last month from 5% in September, in line with expectation. The data supported the case that the U.S. central bank will hike interest rates at its next policy meeting in December.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.26% to 96.94. For the week, the index posted a fall of 1.27%.

Sterling ended the week with gains of 2.74% against the dollar after the U.K. high court ruled Thursday that Prime Minister Theresa May must have parliament’s approval to trigger the Brexit process. For the week ahead, U.K. industrial production and trade balance are scheduled for release, but these reports will matter little to a market focused on the U.S. election.

The same is true for the other currencies but the New Zealand dollar. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement on Thursday. The central bank’s decision may be affected by developments of the market after the U.S Election Day on Tuesday. However, the country’s inflation and trade have been falling even though employment growth, dairy prices and business confidence is improving. Therefore, a rate cut by the RBNZ is expected, especially when its housing market is cooling down.

If RBNZ slash its rate next Thursday, it will stand in sharp contrast to the outlook of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which left rates unchanged this past week. The RBA also issued a statement with a relatively optimistic tone, which helped send the Australian dollar sharply higher versus its major peers. Furthermore, Chinese PMI reports were also better than expected, which helped to boost AUD.

Next week will be a quiet week for the Aussie as no important data of Australian economy will be released. Along with the volatility from the USD, the AUD will be driven by economic reports from China. The Chinese closely-watched monthly export and import readings are due on Tuesday. Exports are forecast to fall at an annual rate of 6.0% in October, while Imports are also estimated to continue falling at the rate of -1.0% in the same month. However, October’s readings are expected to show an easing in the rate of decline compared to the prior month.
Meanwhile, inflation numbers out on Wednesday are expected to show further firming of prices in China with both consumer and producer price inflation edging higher. Annual CPI is forecast to rise by 2.1% in October, up from 1.9% the previous month. Besides, PPI is forecast at 0.8% in October after turning positive for the first time in four years in September.

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 07, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on November 07, 2016



Global stocks and the U.S dollar were given a fresh boost on Monday after the Federal Bureau of Investigation said it maintained the view that Hillary Clinton’s handling of her e-mails wasn’t a crime. The news dispelled a cloud over the Democrat candidate's presidential campaign two days before the U.S. election, and is likely to rescue the S&P 500 Index from its longest losing streak in more than 35 years.

In in a letter to Congress on Sunday, director James Comey said that no criminal charges were warranted against Democrat Hillary Clinton, after the FBI reviewed new e-mails potentially related to its investigation of Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server. The greenback rose for the first time in seven days against a basket of major currency following the news.

Amidst investor optimism about the victory of Clinton, safe-haven assets declined. The yen weakened more than 1% to 104.578 per dollar after jumping 1.6% last week. The Swiss franc also slipped 1%, after surging 2% the week before. After gaining as much as 2.3% in the week to November 04th amid concern Republican Donald Trump may capture the White House, gold fell around 1.5% to $1,287.80 an ounce on Monday.

Crude prices rallied as Algeria's Energy Minister Nouredine Bouterfa stated on Sunday he was confident OPEC members would stick to a deal made in Algiers in September to cut output, according to state news agency APS. Bouterfa also added that the group's technical committee was working on applying the deal.

The High Level Committee of experts is scheduled to meet again in Vienna on Nov. 25 ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers on Nov. 30.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD is about to break the 50.0%Fibonacci level at 1.10578 after creating a wide gap down on the market open. The pair failed to cover the gap and has been heading downwards since the price action pulled back from two MAs. The short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from above, suggesting further down moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.10500 to 1.10000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF left a gap up on the market open on Monday which sent the price action to cross over the short-term MA20 and turned this resistance into a dynamic support. The 20-period MA has sustained the pair’s bullish momentum after a short slide following the gap. RSI has surpassed the 50 line, indicating that the pair may soar higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.97800 to 0.98600 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY has been struggling under the 38.2% retracement after jumping more than 1% on the opening. The sharp rally has brought the price action to penetrated both long-term and short-term MAs, signaling a reversal into an uptrend. As can be observed from the Stochastic chart, %D line and %K line has been surging. A breakout thought the 38.2% level is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 78.100 to 78.500 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold dropped back to an intra-day low after surging to as high as 1295.72 in an attempt to cover the wide gap down created on the market open. Gold fell back below the 23.6% retracement and may slide deeper to test the support at 1279.00. While RSI is ticking lower, ADX has been soaring, confirming the downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1287.00 to 1279.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI has been trading sideways under the long-term MA50 at 44.80. The commodity has been on a rise after bottoming out at 43.56. RSI index that has surged above 50 line and continues to pointing upwards suggesting a crossover of the price action through the 50-period MA.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 45.00 to 45.70 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016



CAC40



Fig: CAC40 H4 Technical Chart

CAC40 has witnessed a big jump that sent the price above 23.6% level. The index escaped from a six-day losing streak and is on course to pare its losses. The %K line has crossed over the %D line from below and liberated from the oversold zone. With a wide gap between two lines of Stochastic chart, the index is expected to extend its rally.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4445.00 to 4473.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 07, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Silver Trade Idea by Option Banque

Brightening Prospects For Clinton Presidency Hit Silver Prices

Silver price slid more than 1.7% on Monday, as haven assets took a hit after the Federal Bureau of Investigation said no new evidence was found to warrant charges against Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton in the investigation of her emails.

The grey metal fell to an intra-day low at $18.087 an ounce after soaring more than 3.6% last week. Silver logged a third-straight weekly gain, fueled mostly by signs Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was gaining ground versus his rival Clinton at the polls ahead of Tuesday’s election. A Trump victory is expected to trigger volatility, which prompted traders to flock into safe-haven assets.

On the contrary, a victory for Clinton is generally viewed as more favorable for stock markets, especially the U.S. conditions in terms of trade. Therefore, the greenback soared strongly following the news. Potentials of the Fed rising real interest rates also weighed on silver as a strengthening greenback makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 18.170 to 18.000 valid until 20:00 November 07, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

AUD/JPY signal by Option Banque

From 80.200
Till 80.500

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 7/11/2016