Daily Market Updates & Trading Signals By Option Banque

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on October 25, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on October 25, 2016

The U.S dollar held near eight-month highs amid mounting speculations that the U.S interest rate will be raised by December. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans on Monday said if the economy continued to grow in line with forecast, it would be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to raise rates three times by the end of 2017.

The Chicago Fed chief was optimism about the U.S. labor market, expecting for continued hiring which could push the unemployment rate down to as low as 4.5 percent without triggering undue inflation. Earlier on Monday, research group Markit reported the U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for October rose to the highest since the start of this year. The gauge for manufacturing activity in the world’s biggest economy reached 53.2 in this month, beating forecast and cementing bets the Fed will make a move on rates in December.

The Loonie pared earlier losses on late Monday as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled a deferral in cutting rate, even after the country’s disappointing economic data lately. Given the uneven growth in different parts of Canada, Poloz reiterated the central bank considered cutting interest rates but said further stimulus is complicated. Any decision to cut interest rates further will not be unleashed in the next 18 months, the BOC Governor said.

The comments that spurred speculation monetary policy would stay on hold, lifted Canada’s dollar from a seven-month low set earlier on Monday. However, the currency dropped again as in an e-mailed statement following the testimony, Poloz said the comments weren’t a reference to monetary policy.

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan deepened the monetary policy divergence between the U.S central bank and its counterparts by stating that the SNB could cut its negative interest rates even more if needed as there is still room for further stimulus.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

The U.S dollar has been on a rise against the Japanese Yen since the pair hit over one-week low at 103.159 last Wednesday. After breaking above the two moving averages from below, the pair has turned these two MAs into its dynamic support. Additionally, we have received signals of going long, as the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MAs, while ADX rebounded from line 20. However, the resistance at 23.6% is within the sight may be the short-term target.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 104.450 to 104.750 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie once again crawled back from the 23.6% retracement. This level has played an important part in supporting the price in the past week since the pair returned to trade above this handle. Recent surge brought market into the neutral zone, which can be observed from the RSI index hovering around the line 50. In the event of continual rally, AUDUSD may form a double top pattern.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.76400 to 0.76900 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016



GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

Recent rally has brought the pair GBPJPY back to the bullish market. As can be seen from the RSI indicator window, the index has soared to as high as 56.74. The price action has penetrated the two MAs from below, consolidating the uptrend. The pair is approaching the upper boundary of the trading range at 128.500.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 127.760 to 128.500 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has been trading in a thin range for more than 2 weeks. The metal has been moving back and forth around a couple of moving average which has twisted under the price action since yesterday. Although RSI has bounced back from the average line, the rally seems limited.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 17.680 to 17.940 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural Gas has been suffering a steep decline that witnessed the commodity falling from multi-month high to one-and-a-half-month lows. Natural gas has fell below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and may approach other major level at 38.2% threshold. While the market has already dipped in the oversold zone, ADX continued to hold high. No signal of a reversal has appeared yet.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2.810, Take profit at 2.700, Stop loss at 2.850

Buy Digital Put Option from 2.810 to 2.700 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016



DOW JONES



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

U.S Dow Jones index has been struggling below the 18255.00 resistance since mid-October. The benchmark broke above both the short-term and long-term MAs yesterday and found the support at the MA20 when it fell off from the 18255.00 handle. Coupled with the RSI above 50 and pointing upwards in the, the convergence of the two MAs below the price action suggests a breakout today.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18260.00 to 18320.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/USD Trade Idea by Option Banque

GBPUSD Fluctuates On BOE Gov.’S Testimony – Carney Dispels Hard Brexit

GBPUSD vacillated strongly on Tuesday before, during and after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s testimony before the House of Lords in London. The pair fell to intra-day low at $1.20812 – the lowest since October 7th, before reversed higher to pare its losses.

Speaking at the testimony, Carney pointed out that the recent moves in sterling seem to be based on “the market’s perception of what the potential relationship will be between the United Kingdom and Europe,”. “It’s a bit early to be making that judgment.”, he said.

The BOE Governor also reassured investors that the Brexit negotiation process will be pursued orderly and the government will attempt to “get the best deal possible”.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.21700 to 1.22000 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Brent Crude Market Outlook by Opttion Banque

Brent Crude Oil Inches Up – $51.30 Handle Remains Strong Support

Crude oil prices ticked higher on Tuesday after retreating the day before as weighed down by Iraqi oil minister’s comments on Sunday that the nation should be exempted from production cuts proposed by the OPEC. Data about the U.S crude inventories are scheduled to be published later today and on Wednesday.
Possibility that the output curb deal, which assigns a specific production ceiling for each OPEC and non-OPEC nation, could not be reached this November, was strengthened after Iraq on Sunday claimed an exemption from production cuts. The second biggest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia said it should be exempted from any deal that requests participants to scale back their output, as the country needs revenue from oil to sustain the war against the Islamic State militants.

In an informal meeting last month, OPEC reached a preliminary agreement to snap the cartel’s daily production to a range between 32.5 to 33 million barrels a day. However, the agreement did not specify any individual output quotas.

Considering the record-high output that the 14-nation bloc pumped out in September, and exemption requests from Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Lybia, investors have been concerned that OPEC officials may have to leave its upcoming meeting empty-handed.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino is visiting Moscow on Tuesday to hold a bilateral meeting with his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak. Two oil ministers will discuss coordinating action on the global oil markets. Russia has pushed its production to a post-Soviet high of 11.2 million barrels a day in October.

Russia officials said they will attend the meeting in Vienna, which is scheduled for November 30, to negotiate options to curb crude oil output. Nonetheless, Russia’s commitment to join the deal remains uncertain, especially when the country’s biggest energy company, Rosneft, recently stated that it would ramp up production if the demand requires.

Besides the closely-watched OPEC’s limiting production plan, investors are also keeping an eye on the weekly changes in U.S. crude inventories. Markets estimate a growth of 400,000-barrels in the U.S. crude stockpiles in the week ended October 21st. The private American Petroleum Institute is due to publish its weekly crude stocks estimates later today while official data by the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due for release on Wednesday.

Brent has been trading sideways above the 51.30 support after a sharp rally in the period from September 28 to October 10. The prices have failed to fall below the 51.30 for several times and now are facing another support that is the short-term DMA20. RSI is moving close to the 50 line, suggesting equal forces of buyers and sellers in the market. Given the support from two MAs placed below the price action, Brent may edge up today.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 51.30 to 51.85 valid until 20:00 GMT October 25, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on October 26, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on October 26, 2016

Asian shares dropped on Wednesday, following in the footsteps of the U.S equities which were dragged down by disappointing earnings overnight. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.6%. Japanese benchmark Nikkei 225 slid 0.2%; South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.3% while gauges in Australia also fell.

The Australian dollar jumped more than 0.6% to as high as 0.77083 – the highest since last Thursday after inflation was reported to run faster than expected. Australia’s consumer prices accelerated at the pace of 0.7% last quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase, and paring bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rate this year.

Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday, pulled down by a report of surging U.S. crude inventories, and rising output in Nigeria. The industry group American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported that U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.8 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 21. This was far above a 1.7-million barrel build forecast by analysts. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due to publish official data on U.S. crude stockpiles later today.

According to the Nigerian presidency on Tuesday, Royal Dutch Shell has resumed crude exports from the Forcados terminal in Nigeria's restive Niger Delta following repairs after a militant attack. Operations at Forcados have been halted since a militant attack on the subsea pipeline in February which was attributed to the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA).



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H1 Technical Chart

The British pound dropped steeply yesterday to retest the low logged two weeks ago before recovering losses to get back above the 1.21700 level. However, the currency continued to lose ground against the U.S dollar and has retreated after reaching 1.22054. The short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 and is putting downward pressure on the pair. As can be observed from indicator windows, while RSI remains under 50, ADX has surged to 30.07 with a wide gap between +DI and –DI lines, which indicates a strong downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.21550 to 1.21000 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been on a rise since it hit the 38.2% retracement at 1.33107. The pair failed to break below this level on Monday and has turned it into a new support. Further supporting the rally is the pair of moving averages placed below the price action. However, bulls seem to be losing stream which can be seen in shorter bodies in every new candle. USDCAD attempted the firm resistance at 1.33550 at the start of the week and turned sideways since the start of the week. Nonetheless, with a market in favor of buyers, USDCAD is expected to reach the 1.34000 threshold.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.33600 to 1.34000 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016



GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

The pair GBPJPY has remained range-bound for nearly 2 weeks between the support at 126.100 and the resistance at 128.000. The Pound hit the upper boundary of the range yesterday but failed to break out of its trading range and is heading downwards to the lower boundary. Like the RSI which is moving around the 50 line, the price action is also swinging back and forth around the MAs. There is a high chance that the market will continue sideways for a longer period of time.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 126.670 to 126.100 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Sugar has retreated after buyers have not been able to hold on to the recent strength. The price action crossed over the MA's from below, but could not sustain itself above the MA's and has quickly broken back below the MA's. The price action is currently placed around the MA's and the recent candlesticks suggest weakening upside momentum which is being confirmed by the indicators. The stochastics have retreated from the overbought area. The %K line is moving lower ahead of the %D line, suggesting an extended down move.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 22.80 to 22.35 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI pulled back from the support at 49.35 following three long-body bearish candles yesterday. From the stochastic chart, we can see that after falling into the oversold zone, the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, suggesting a correction. Further, crude prices are under the shadow of the two MAs placed above the price action, which are pointing downwards. Hence, the price is anticipated to reverse lower soon.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 49.30 to 48.30 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016



DOW JONES



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

The Dow Jones index resumed its range-bound moves after pulling back from the upper boundary of the recent range. The price action has been trapped in a trading range with the support at 18055.00 and the resistance at 18255.00. The slide yesterday sent the market back into bearish terrritory, according to the RSI chart. The index may re-attempt a test of the lower boundary.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 18140.00 to 18055.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

GBP/AUD signal by Option Banque

From 1.58220
Till 1.57230

Sell Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 26/10/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

FTSE Market Outlook by Option Banque

FTSE 100 Slides, Led By Banking And Mining Shares – Put Option Suggested

U.K shares tumbled in morning session on Wednesday. The benchmark FTSE 100 dropped below 7000.00 threshold as banking stocks were under pressure from Lloyds Banking Group PLC’s disappointing results while falling commodity prices weighed on miners.

Lloyds shares dropped 1.3% after the U.K’s largest mortgage lender posted a slide in profit for the third quarter. The company posted a profit of £219 million ($266.39 million), which tumbled 68% compared to the same period last year, as it had to set aside another £1billion to compensate customers who were sold an unnecessary insurance product.

Shares of other financial institutions were also trading in a red. Barclays PLC fell 1.74%, HSBC Holdings PLC lost 0.83% and Standard Chartered PLC shed 1.05%.
Royal Bank of Scotland PLC was standing out of the downward trend after banking group CYBG confirmed on Wednesday that it has made a preliminary non-binding proposal related RBS’s Williams and Glyn operations. RBS’s stocks climbed 0.47%, but the holding company that owns Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banks, said a deal will only be pursued if it’s in the best interest of shareholders. Hence, the case remains uncertain to occur.

Besides lenders, British miners have not been enjoying today’s session. Antofagasta PLC led losses after forecasting a slide in copper production next year. The company produced 180,600 tons of copper in the three months ending September, up 8.7% compared with the previous quarter and reaffirmed this year’s copper output forecast to be close to the lower end of its guidance of 710,000-740,000 tons.

The Chilean copper producer, however, guided a lower copper output range in 2017, which is expected to fall in the range of 685,000 to 720,000 tons. Antofagasta PLC fell the most on the FTSE 100 index, collapsing more than 7% to intra-day low at 496.30 cents before paring some losses.

Shares of other miners were also driven lower, with Anglo American PLC down 2.69% and BHP Billiton PLC losing 1.63%. Rio Tinto PLC was off 0.6%.

Fig: FTSE 100 H4 technical chart

FTSE 100 has not only fallen below the key level at 7000.00 but has also been on track to breach the firm support at 6935.00. As can be seen from the chart, this level has forced the index to reverse higher two times in the past and also played as a solid resistance previously. RSI index is pointing downwards, indicating further declines.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 6935.00 to 6860.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 26, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on October 27, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on October 27, 2016

Asian shares extended losses to a second trading day on Thursday due to the decline in shares of blue-chip companies following earnings reports. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell the most among regional benchmarks with a 1.2%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was down 0.7%, while Japan’s Topix index retreated.

Profit growth in China's industrial firms was reported to have slowed down in September. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Thursday that profits at Chinese industrial firms rose 7.7 percent to 577.1 billion Yuan last month. This pace was lower than August's 19.5 percent jump, as several sectors such as electronics, steel and electricity sreported weak activity.

In the nine months through September, total profits stood at 4.64 trillion Yuan ($684.77 billion), up 8.4 percent from the same period a year ago.

Crude oil witnessed a weak recovery even after the Energy Information Administration stated that domestic crude supplies unexpectedly fell last week. U.S. crude stockpiles were reported to have fallen by 553,000 barrels last week, a result contrary to analyst forecasts and previous reports from the API that had reported an increase in stocks

For the day ahead, the U.S. is scheduled to report on durable goods orders and the housing market. Investors are also waiting for U.K. GDP figures that shall reflect the economy’s full performance in the wake of the Brexit referendum. Companies reporting earnings include Google parent Alphabet Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and China Petroleum & Chemical Corp.



Technicals

AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie fell off again after hitting the resistance at 0.77000 against the U.S dollar. The pair pulled back from the 0.76400 level but sellers quickly jumped in after the short correction to send the pair below the two MAs, which confirms the downtrend. Coupled with the RSI index that has retreated below the 50 line, the parabolic sar is also signaling further declines. The pair is likely to find support at the 23.6% level at 0.75958.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.75958 to 0.76400 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY is approaching the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 104.750 where it had to reverse lower on Tuesday. Buyers are overwhelming the market, which is indicated by the RSI line floating above the dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. However, observing the ADX chart, we can see that the bullish force is weakening. Hence, the chance of the pair breaking through the 23.6% handle today, is not very high.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 104.750 to 104.200 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

Euro has been on a steady rise against the Canadian dollar and is about to encounter the resistance at 1.46318, which is one of the major Fibonacci levels. As the market has neared the oversold zone and the buying interest is weakening, the pair is not likely to make a breakout through the 23.6% retracement today.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.46318 to 1.45400 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has remained locked in the range between the support at 38.2% Fibonacci level and the resistance at 1275.00. Nevertheless, the metal has received bullish support from the short-term 20-period moving average since the price action crossed over the MA more than a week ago. Gold is ticking higher after falling from the upper boundary of the trading range and may attempt this level again as the %K line has penetrated the %D line from below.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1269.00 to 1275.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI has been moving sideways to lower for almost two days. After failed attempts to breach the 49.30 handle, the commodity has broken below this level with the support of the short-term MAs which helped the pair pull back yesterday. As the RSI remains at a low level, WTI crude prices may test the next support at 48.30.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 49.00 to 48.30 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical Chart

The NASDAQ100 index pulled back from the support at 4845.00, which has been a strong zone of resistance recently. With bullish momentum fueled by the MA20, which is placed below the price action, the index is anticipated to retest the resistance at 4890.00. The RSI has surpassed the 50 line, consolidating further up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4870.00 to 4890.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

AUD/NZD by Option Banque

From 1.06500
Till 1.06300

Option Digital
Direction Put
Expiry GMT 21:00 27/10/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Crude Trade Idea by Option Banque

OPEC May Slash Output By 4% – Crude Oil Jumps

Crude oil prices bound back on Thursday after a three-day losing streak after news that dispelled partly investor concerns about OPEC’s plan to cut output.
West Texas Intermediate for December delivery advanced to $50.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, Brent for December settlement rallied to $50.88 a barrel.

Citing sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf OPEC allies told Russia that they are willing to snap production by 4% from their peak oil output.

Brent Crude Oil Trade Suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 50.80 to 51.30 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Deutsche Bank Market Outlook by Option Banque

Deutsche Bank Rallies Following Surprising Earnings Reports

Shares of Deutsche Bank AG jumped more than 2% to the highest since September on Thursday before paring earlier gains. The German’s biggest lender posted an unexpected profit for the last quarter but uncertainties remained as the bank had to set aside more cash to cover litigation costs.

In the thee-month period ended September 30, Deutsche Bank generated an income of €278 million ($303.1 million), which beat analysts’ expectations for a net loss of around €610 million. Third-quarter’s net profit this year is much better than a net loss of €6 billion during the same period a year ago, when the lender had to spend billions of dollars in write-downs as part of a companywide restructuring.

Third-quarter net revenue was registered at €7.5 billion, up 2% from the same period a year earlier and better than average estimates. While low interest rates hurt the bank’s revenue by 5%, those declines were offset by strong credit and rates trading.

Restructuring and litigation costs charged the German lender less than anticipated in the third quarter. Deutsche Bank set aside an additional €501 million for litigation costs to raise its litigation reserves to a total of €5.9 billion as of September 30th. The bank said it is “working hard” to settle mortgage-securities probes with U.S. authorities.

Despite ongoing low-interest-rate environment and private legal woes, Chief Executive Officer John Cryan retained the multiyear financial targets which were set in late 2015, expecting cost-cutting plans will help the bank reach its goal.
In a letter on Thursday, Cryan told staff that the lender will have to “accelerate and intensify” its restructuring efforts, including laying off staff and getting rid of non-core businesses.

Shares of Deutsche Bank have covered the gap up they created on the market open but bullish signs are all over the place. Not only has the short-term DMA20 converged with the long-term DM20, the wide divergence between the –DI and +Di line, also consolidates upbeat moves. The shares are expected to retest the resistance at 13.80.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 13.30 to 13.50 valid until 20:00 GMT October 27, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EUR/NZD signal by Option Banque

EUR/NZD signal by Option Banque

From 1.53100
Till 1.53500

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 28/10/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on October 28, 2016 by Option Banque


Daily Report on October 28, 2016

Global stocks plummeted on Friday while bond yields and the U.S dollar rallied amid rising speculation for a near-term U.S. interest rate hike. Most Asian benchmarks fell, while European shares opened lower. Europe Stoxx 600 lost 0.5% to open at 339.90. FTSE 100 inched down 0.4% to 6,960.81, and Germany's DAX retreated 0.8% to 10,635.55

The greenback held on to its strength as Upbeat U.S. data on Thursday including jobless claims, manufacturing activity and pending home sales strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise rates by the year-end. The market attention was now turned toward third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data which is scheduled to come out later today.

The Bank of Japan on Friday said that consumer price index – the bank’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.2% from a year earlier in September. This is the weakest gain since September 2013, following a 0.4% increase in August. The gauge has headed lower since peaking at 1.3% in December last year, as Yen strengthened and domestic demand remained weak.

Crude oil prices were almost unchanged in Asian and early European trade after bouncing back on Thursday from three-week lows. Investors are waiting for a meeting of oil officials from OPEC countries this weekend in Vienna for more clues on a proposed production cut deal. OPEC will make a formal announcement on Nov. 30 about the outcome of its negotiation on the fate of the deal.



Technicals

USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD is moving sideways to higher under the resistance at 1.34000. The pair is receiving huge support from the short-term 20-period moving average. Although RSI is floating horizontally, it remains in the bullish territory and suggests a market which is in favor of buyers. Investors are awaiting data of the U.S economy. If the report benefits the greenback, the pair can rise to as high as 1.34700.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.34000, Take profit at 1.34700, Stop loss at



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

New Zealand’s dollar resumed its slide after enjoying a correction from the support at 0.71100. The short rally could not defeat the short-term MA20 and send the market into the bullish zone. As can be seen from the indicator window, RSI bounced back from the 50 line and is heading downwards, indicating further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.71100, Take profit at 0.70500, Stop loss at 0.71300



EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP have been trading in a thin range between the support at 0.88800 and the resistance at 0.90555 since a wide fluctuation on October 07th. The pair is on course to approach the upper boundary with bullish signal from two MAs placed below the price action. The 20-period MA has penetrated the 50-period MA from below, which consolidates the up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.89800, Take profit at 0.90555, Stop loss at 0.89400



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S crude prices are still under downward pressure from two MAs after failed attempts to cross over this dynamic resistance lately. The commodity headed back to the support at 49.30 and keeps the market in the bearish territory. In the event of continual downtrend, crude prices can make a break out through the 49.30 handle and retest another support at 48.30.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 49.30, Take profit at 48.30, Stop loss at 49.80



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has been trading in a thin range lately. As can be observed from the RSI chart, the market is in a neutral zone with the RSI moving back and forth around the average line, which divides the bullish area from the bearish area. RSI is pointing downwards, but to confirm a downtrend, we may need to wait until the price action has crossed over the two MAs successfully.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 17.520, Take profit at 17.300, Stop loss at 17.700



EURO 50



Fig: EURO 50 H4 Technical Chart

Euro Stoxx 50 index pulled back from the firm support at 3062.00 which has retrained the price to fall deeper on the last two days. Today the index also receive another support which comes from the long-term 50-period MA at 3050.90. However, the parabolic sar has changed its direction to hang above the price action, suggesting extended down moves.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 3062.00, Take profit at 3050.00, Stop loss at 3070.00

 

[Option_Banque]

EURUSD Trade Idea by Option Banque

U.S Dollar Loses Ground Even After Positive GDP Data

The Euro rose on Friday against the U.S dollar, looking set to finish the week higher after hitting the lowest since March 03rd at $1.08502 on Tuesday.
The pair EURUSD ticked higher even after the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the preliminary reading of the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product reached the highest since mid-2014. The U.S economy expanded at the pace of 2.9% in the three-month period through September, which marked an improvement compared to the first half of the year when the U.S. grew just barely over 1%.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of major currency retreated 0.28% at the time of writing. Markets are widely waiting for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on November 01st and the U.S presidential election scheduled one week after that.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 1.09500 to 1.09600 valid until 20:00 GMT October 28, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

CAC40 Market Outlook by Option Banque

Drug Maker Sanofi Boosts CAC 40 Higher After Early Losses

French shares swung to positive territory after easing losses in early trade on Friday. France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.22% so far on the day following the release of encouraging Eurozone economic confidence data.

Among a batch of economic releases on Friday, survey data from the European Commission showed that a gauge of Eurozone economic confidence hit a 10-month high at 106.3 in October, which is up from 104.9 in the prior month.

However, French consumer spending unexpectedly shed 0.2% in September following a 0.8% increase in August, data from statistical office INSEE revealed.
Also stated by the INSEE, the annual consumer price inflation remained stable at 0.4 percent in the current month, while producer prices added 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, after remaining flat in the previous month.

On the CAC 40 index, declining issues outnumbered advancing issues by 22 to 18. Nonetheless, the index was trading in the green, led by the jump of drug maker Sanofi. Shares of the pharmaceutical company rallied more than 7.0% it raised its profit forecast for the year and announced its plan to complete a €3.5 billion ($3.82 billion) share buyback by the end of 2017.

Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA’s equities also climbed 3% after the building materials firm posted good organic growth in the first five nine months of the year.

On the other side, Nokia Corp topped the list of losers, heading down more than 4%. The technology company reported a quarterly net loss for the third time in a row on Thursday. The decline in the bottom line was resulted from sluggish mobile-network sales and charges related to the company’s acquisition of French rival Alcatel-Lucent SA.

Adding to Nokia’s woes is the news that its Chief Financial Officer Timo Ihamuotila has resigned to join technology conglomerate ABB Ltd. in Switzerland. His position will be filled by Kristian Pullola.

Fig: CAC 40 D1 technical chart

CAC 40 index has been on a rise and is likely to approach the six-month highs at 4579.90 logged on October 24th. The index is being suported by two MAs which are moving under the price action. With the confirmation from the RSI index that is heading upwards to the overbought zone, the index is expected the uptrend.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Call Option from 4545.00 to 4557.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 28, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Weekly outlook by Option Banque

Spotlight On A Quartet Of Central Bank Meetings, U.S NFP To Wrap Up An Eventful Week

The U.S dollar weakened against most of its peers on Friday after reigning supreme for most of last week. The greenback lost its steam as investors took profits following the release of GDP data, but still closed the week higher versus a the majors amid rising speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December.

In spite of mixed data published throughout the week, Friday’s report on the U.S gross domestic product pointed to a positive trent in US economic growth.US Consumer Sentiment dropped as per reports by the Conference Board on Tuesday and by University of Michigan on Friday. However, flash data on manufacturing and service sectors for October signaled a strong start for the fourth quarter with both indexes reaching the highest levels in 11 months. U.S. economic growth was also reported to accelerate at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, not to mention new home sales rising and the trade deficit narrowing.

No matter how encouraging the economic data were last week, the Fed is not expected to tighten rates at the policy meeting next week, which is being held just days before the presidential election. Therefore, reports such as ISM manufacturing due on Tuesday, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and ISM non-manufacturing may draw more attention.

In September, there were only 156,000 jobs added to the US economy, while the unemployment rate inched up to 5% from 4.9% in August. Last month’s readings was not only lower than expectations but also indicated a trend towards decreasing numbers over the last four months. For October, economists expect a 175,000 jobs gain and the jobless rate declining to 4.9%.

The British Pound hit a two-week low at $1.20812 last week ahead of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s testimony before the House of Lords in London. GBPUSD recovered earlier losses later on as Carney pointed out that the recent moves in sterling seemed to be based on “the market’s perception of what the potential relationship will be between the United Kingdom and Europe,”. “It’s a bit early to be making that judgment.” he said.

The BOE Governor also reassured investors that the Brexit negotiation process will be pursued orderly and the government will attempt to “get the best deal possible”.

The most important data for the Cable reported last week was the third-quarter GDP, which reflected the economy’s performance in the period following the country’s Brexit vote. The Office for National Statistics stated that U.K. gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in the July-September period, which was lower than the unusually strong growth of 0.7% recorded in the second quarter, but it comfortably outpaced forecasts calling for an expansion of 0.3%.

Next week, the latest UK PMIs and Quarterly Inflation Report will be released before the BOE announces its rate decision on Thursday. Analyst expectations point to rates remaining unchanged at the meeting. However, remarks by BOE policymakers will be closely watched to determine whether there is a possibility of another rate cut in the coming months.

Unlike the Cable with a busy week ahead, the Euro is not likely to be pushed around by Eurozone-related data. The single currency fell to the lowest since early-March at $1.08502 last Tuesday and seems to have bottomed out at the level

Monday’s third-quarter Eurozone GDP report and October CPI will start a quiet week for the Euro. Manufacturing and service PMIs from Eurozone countries and the region as a whole will be reported on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. The upside for EURUSD seems limited as dollar bulls may remain in control around the FOMC meeting.

Moving on to Australia, the Australian dollar jumped more than 0.6% to as high as 0.77083 – the highest in a week, after inflation was reported higher than expected. Australia’s consumer prices accelerated at the pace of 0.7% last quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase, and paring bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to deliver its interest rate decision on Tuesday, November 1st. It is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and it may announce a state of neutrality. This announcement will be followed by a busy Friday for the Aussie with RBA Monetary Policy Statement and September’s Retail Sales on the calendar.

The New Zealand dollar, which closed the week almost unchanged compared to the greenback, is also going to welcome key reports next week including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. The former is expected to come in at 0.6%, the latter, unchanged at 5.1%. The Kiwi is also likely to respond to the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Of the 3 commodity currencies, Canadian dollar was the weakest in the past week. Oil prices hitting three-week lows and economic data that surprised to the downside together weighed on the currency.

Crude oil witnessed a weak recovery after the Energy Information Administration stated that domestic crude supplies unexpectedly fell last week. U.S. crude stockpiles were reported to have fallen by 553,000 barrels last week, a result contrary to analyst forecasts and previous reports from the API that had reported an increase in stocks.

However, burdens on the crude price remained heavy as two-day talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Vienna ended with nothing new but a promise that the world’s largest oil producers would keep on talking. Discussions will continue in late November, just days before the OPEC is supposed to finalize the accord that had previously been proposed in September.

The Loonie pared earlier losses on late Monday as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled a deferral in cutting rates, even after the country’s disappointing economic data lately. Given the uneven growth in different parts of Canada, Poloz reiterated the central bank considered cutting interest rates but said further stimulus is complicated. Any decision to cut interest rates further will not be unleashed in the next 18 months, the BOC Governor said.

The Bank of Japan also has a monetary policy meeting scheduled next week but like the other three central banks, the BOJ is expected to make little or no changes to its current monetary policy framework.

 

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Daily Report on October 31, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on October 31, 2016



Asian shares fluctuated on Monday, with energy sector tracking oil’s slide. Energy stocks fell on the last trading day of October as crude benchmarks slipped to one-month lows after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left Vienna empty-handed. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers ended two days of talks without making any progress on setting individual quotas, as focus was on Iran and Iraq – two OPEC members that preferred raising output to snapping production.

Gold was little unchanged after breaking the resistance at $1275.00 per ounce on Friday. Markets’ confidence was rattled following a survey pointed to cooling support for Democrat Hillary Clinton since the reopening of an FBI probe into her use of private e-mail while secretary of state. Considered as a good gauge of how markets assess Clinton’s possibility to win the election on November 11, the Mexican peso held a two-week low versus the dollar.

In Japan, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Monday reported that Japanese industrial output was unchanged in September from the previous month. The reading was far lower than the median estimate of a 0.9% increase and an expansion at the pace of 1.3% in August. According to the report, the stall in Japan’s industrial output was due to declines in semiconductor and personal computer production that offset gains in autos and construction equipment.

In a separate data release, Japanese retail sales were also unchanged compared to the month before but fell more than expected in September from a year ago, indicating that private consumption remains a drag on growth. The Bank of Japan has started a two-day meeting on Monday during which it will review its inflation outlook and monetary policy. Today’s data may prompt the BOJ to push back the timing of its price target again.



Technicals

AUDCAD



Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

The Australian dollar resumed its rally against the Loonie after the pair fell from two-and-a-half year highs at 1.02846 recorded last Wednesday. A pullback came in as the price action hit the long-term MA50 and failed to break below this dynamic support. As can be observed from the RSI chart, the index has surged above 50, confirming the uptrend. Meanwhile, the +DI line has crossed over the –DI line, further consolidates upcoming advances.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1.02050 to 1.02350 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPT failed to get back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as the pair had faced a strong support that is the MA20. As indicated by the RSI that is floating above 50 line, the market remains in favor of the bull. Hence, USDJPY may re-attempt the three-month highs at 105.500.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 104.900 to 105.500 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie returned back above the 23.6% retracement following a rebound from the solid support at 0.75600. Long lower shadows of recent candles indicate a strong bullish force that has consistently pushed the price higher. Although the price action remains under a couple of MAs, the parabolic sar band has changed its direction to moving below the price action, signaling a further up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.76150 to 0.76500 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has breached the resistance at 1275.00 with supports from long-term MA50 placed below the price action. The precious metal has turned its old resistance into a new support, against which it crawled back last Friday. As RSI remain in the bullish zone and is pointing upwards, gold may soar higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 1278.00 to 1284.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI pulled back from the support at 48.30 following a gap down on the market open. From the RSI chart, the rebound can be considered as a correction as the market has reached the oversold zone. With a soaring ADX and downward pressure exerted from two MAs hanging above the price action, the commodity is expected to test the support at 47.50.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 48.30 to 47.50 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016



DOW JONES



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

U.S Dow Jones 30 index has remained in the range between the support at 18055.00 and the resistance at 18255.00 since Oct. 13. While the RSI has been swinging back and forth around the 50 line, the ADX has dipped to as low as 15.90, which indicates an unclear trend on the market.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 18200.00 to 18090.00 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EUR/CHF signal by Option Banque

From 1.08300
Till 1.08600

Buy Option Digital
Direction Call
Expiry GMT 21:00 31/10/2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Natural Gas Trade Idea by Option Banque

Rising Supplies Magnified By Warmer-Than-Normal Weather Weigh On Natural Gas

U.S. natural gas slumped on Monday after a jump in early Asian trade, as warmer-than-usual weather in most part of the U.S has dampened demand for the heating fuel.

Natural gas for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached the highest level since Oct. 20 at $3.163 per million Btu before sliding to as low as $3.055 per million Btu.

According to the updated weather forecast, high pressure weather systems, which result in much warmer than normal conditions, will reign on the central and southern U.S. – key gas-consuming regions – this week.

Natural gas traders are waiting for weekly supply data due on Thursday, which is expected to show a build in a range between 49 and 59 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 28.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 3.070 to 3.055 valid until 20:00 GMT October 31, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

EURUSD Market Outlook by Option Banque

Monetary Policy Divergence Between Fed And ECB Sends Euro To Monthly Loss

The euro declined on Monday after a sharply rebound on Friday, heading for its biggest monthly decline against the U.S. dollar since May. The pair has lost more than 2.6% amid mounting speculation the European Central Bank will extend its asset-purchase program while the Federal Reserve is widely believed to raise interest rates in December.

The euro has been weakening since ECB President Mario Draghi said at a conference following rate dicision earlier this month that officials had not discussed the institution’s 1.7 trillion-euro QE program. Draghi added that the central bank would not end the asset-buying program without tapering its first. According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission report, hedge funds and other large speculators increased net short positions on the euro to 123,856 futures contracts in the week ending Oct. 25, the most since January.

Mixed data releases on Monday could not drive the euro higher. As stated by the European Union’s statistics office, the region’s gross domestic product rose 0.3% in the three months to September, following an expansion 0.3% in the previous quarter. The inflation rate picked up to 0.5% in October, a separate report showed. Both readings matched economists’ forecast.

Earlier, the Destatis statistics office reported that German retail sales, adjusted for inflation and seasonal swings, plummeted by 1.4% in September from the previous month. This marked their second consecutive decline and their sharpest fall in two years.

Meanwhile in the U.S., speculation intensified that the Fed will raise interest rates by the year’s end. As indicated by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 73.5% chance that the U.S. central bank will raise their rates for the first time in a year in the meeting held in mid-December.

Fig: EURUSD D1 Technical Chart

After two failed attempts, EURUSD finally broke above the 61.8% retracement at 1.09241. However, the pair has resumed its downtrend and is expected to retest this level again. RSI is not moving near the oversold zone but is heading downwards and remains in the bearish territory. With two MAs hanging above the price action, the pair is likely to fall deeper.

Trade suggestion
Buy Digital Put Option from 1.09500 to 1.09250 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016

 

[Option_Banque]

Daily Report on November 01, 2016 by Option Banque

Daily Report on November 01, 2016

Asian equities reversed higher on Tuesday after both official and private purchasing managers’ indexes for China were reported to rally to two-year highs and top markets’ estimates. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted at 51.2 in October, following the previous month’s reading of 50.4 and remaining above the 50-point mark for three months in a row.

Confirming government data that indicated Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI also rose to 51.2, beating analysts' forecasts of 50.2.

Thanks to a government infrastructure spending spree and a housing boom, the world’s second biggest economy is showing signs of stabilization with output and overall new orders growing remarkably. However, China’s new export orders contracted marginally in September, suggesting that the upbeat readings for last month largely came from improvement in domestic demand.

The Kiwi and the Aussie jumped following Chinese data as China is their biggest export market. The Australia dollar also received supports from its central bank which left the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1.5 percent after Tuesday’s review. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe held off on expanding stimulus, citing escalating property prices, bouncing commodity prices and lower unemployment as reasons to tolerate soft consumer prices growth.

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy stance unchanged too, and pushed back the projected timing for reaching its 2 percent inflation goal as expected.

Crude prices bounced back on Tuesday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had approved a document on Monday outlining its long-term strategy. According to OPEC sources, the board of governors agreed that they should return to their role of managing the market and defending prices - which has been abandoned since 2014. OPEC officials including Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo remain optimistic that details of the output cut deal will be ironed out when oil ministers meet in late-November.



Technicals

GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

GBPJPY are still trading within the range between 126.100 and 128.400. However, the pair has approached the upper boundary and is struggling below this level which forced the pair to reverse lower a few times in the past. The British Pound has been supported by two MAs placed below the price action. If a breakout is made, the pair is expected to find its resistance at the handle of 129.600.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 128.500 to 129.600 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016



AUDCAD



Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

AUDCAD has soared strongly from its three-day lows at 1.01230 and is marching to the multi-year highs at 1.02846 logged last Wednesday. The pair is much likely to reach this level with RSI is at high level while ADX has also surged to 27.76. However, a sharp rally may cause bulls to get exhausted, not to mention the market has neared the overbought zone. A pullback is expected at the 1.02846 level.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 1.02845 to 1.02350 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie has rallied steeply from the 23.6% retracement at 0.75963 and has broken through the resistance at 0.76500. Although the market has penetrated the overbought zone, as indicated by the RSI, ADX chart showed no sign of the uptrend that is about to get weak. AUDUSD is expected to test the highest since October 26th at 0.77000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 0.76650 to 0.77000 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has approached the resistance at 17.960 after steadily up moves from the support at 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 17.418. Coupled with two MAs that are moving below the price action, the RSI is heading upwards to the overbought territory, consolidating the uptrend. The resistance at 38.2% level is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 18.000 to 18.280 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Although the market has entered the oversold zone, silver remains in its downtrend which started one week ago. The grey metal has retreated consistently and may hit the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement if the price keeps falling. As can be observed from indicator charts, while RSI has fallen to as low as 20.01, ADX has reached the high level at 66.42.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Put Option from 21.55 to 21.15 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016



CAC40



Fig: CAC40 H4 Technical Chart

France’s CAC40 futures opened with a wide gap up and brought the price action above two MAs. The index breached the resistance at 4528.00 and is attempting the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 4579.48. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the %K line is far ahead of the %D line, suggesting strong uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Digital Call Option from 4335.00 to 4555.00 valid until 20:00 GMT November 01, 2016