daily market outlook

[jebat66]

On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

Yesterday, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6860 was executed. Hence, the price level of 0.6860 now constitutes a recent support level.

Bullish persistence above 0.6860 is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 where a prominent consolidation range was previously established in June 2015.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards 0.6860 for a valid entry.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 31/03/2016:

The German inflation data unexpectedly turned positive in March. It might be a first sign that domestic demand as well as the ECB massive stimulus may be starting to boost price gains. On an annual basis, the German CPI rose 0.3%, exceeding forecast for a 0.1% gain and following zero growth in February. The inflation might start to pick up at last and according to the ECB projections from March inflation in the region would accelerate to 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6 % in 2018. In conclusion, the extended period of the QE program and recent increase of the asset purchase facility by the ECB might finally be working towards the projected inflation levels.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of the German index DAX30 (ETF) in the daily time frame. We can see the index is trading below the long-term trend line and below the 100 and 200 daily moving average. Moreover, the rising wedge formation has just hit the technical resistance at the level of 10124. This level looks like the line in sand for bears now, because any rally higher would lead to the test of the golden trend line. So, if bears want to take back the control over this market again, now is a good time and price level to do it.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 31/03/2016:

The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was released yesterday. The data turned out to be better than market expectations. The March job gain of 200,000 (against 195,000 expected, 205,000 prior) is consistent with the average monthly job growth in the previous four years. The services sector was the biggest contributor to the employment gain, creating 191,000 jobs. In conclusion, the increasing employment levels allow US households to spend more money, thereby boosting economic activity and protecting the world's biggest economy against external headwinds.

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. Bulls are clearly in control over this market as the price is making higher highs and higher lows. Currently, bulls are under resistance at the level of 1.1376. If this level is violated, next target will be at the level of 1.1428.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/SEK continues trading between R2 (9.2830) and S1 (9.2185). But at the same time, the price broke below the ascending channel and found the resistance at the lower channel trend line as well as 61.8% Fibs applied to the channel's break-out point.

Currently, the price is stuck between R1 and S1 levels where the support seems to be broken while resistance is holding. Taking into consideration that previously the S1 support has been already broken, the probability of the price going down remains high. Not to mention that the price is right at the R1 resistance that has been rejected today.

Consider selling EUR/SEK today while the price is near R1 (9.2500), targeting S2 (9.1790) support level. The stop loss should be well above R1. On the other hand, daily close above R1 should shift the medium-term direction to the upside.

Support: 9.2185, 9.1790, 9.1150

Resistance: 9.2500, 9.2830

 

[jebat66]

According to my previous analysis, AUD/CHF is expected to move lower. The price remains below the R1 resistance and has slightly dropped already.

Consider holding short positions from 0.7400 (R1) targeting 0.7185 (S2). The stop loss should be just above the 0.7500 physiological resistance level. Alternative strategy is the sell breakout of the 0.7285 (S1), targeting S3 or S3.

Support: 0.7285, 0.7185, 0.7085

Resistance: 0.7410, 0.7500

 

[jebat66]

On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 and 0.6860 was initiated.

On March 30, an obvious bullish breakout above 0.6860 was executed. Hence, the price level of 0.6860 now constitutes a recent support level.

Bullish persistence above 0.6860 is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.7070 and 0.7170 where a prominent consolidation range was previously established in June 2015.

On the other hand, conservative traders can wait for a bearish pullback towards 0.6860 for a valid entry

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6521. Anyway, EUR/NZD is in downtrend and I found a bearish flag formation, which is a sign that we may see further bearish continuation. Watch for potential breakout of berish flag to confirm further bearish continuation. The breakout of 1.6440 will confirm further downward movement. The first take profit level is set at the price of 1.6265 (swing low).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6490

R2: 1.6520

R3: 1.6570

Support levels:

S1: 1.6390

S2: 1.6360

S3: 1.6310

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for breakout of the bearish flag formation to confirm further downward movement.

 

[jebat66]

A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

Previously, the price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stood as a prominent support level which provided significant bullish rejection and prevented further bearish decline.

On the other hand, the price level of 1.3300 constituted a significant resistance level as it corresponded to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend where a valid sell entry was suggested on March 24.

Conservative traders should wait for a DAILY closure below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair broke resistance which turned into strong support at the level of 0.6851 yesterday. The level of 0.6851 coincides with 61.8% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 61.80% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. From this point, the NZD/USD pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6851. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.6851 and 0.6964. On the H4 chart, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.6851 and 0.7018. Also, it should be noticed that, the level of 0.6901 represents the daily pivot point. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.6851 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.6851. If the trend breaks the support at 0.6901 (daily pivot point) the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level of 0.6851 and 0.7018 in order to test the daily resistance 2. However, stop loss is to be placed below the level of 0.6817.

 

[jebat66]

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways at $1,231.00. A breakout of the $1,245.50 level is needed for the continuation of the upward movement. On the 4H time frame chart, I found low liquidity on the market. Watch for a successful breakout of $1,245.50 and then try to buy on the dips with the first target near the level of $1,259.00. From the other side, we got a weak closing of the bar from yesterday, which is a sign that we may see a downward correction before the breakout.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,240.00

R2: 1,243.90

R3: 1,250.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,227.00

S2: 1,223.30

S3: 1,217.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. Selling looks very risky

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair broke support which turned into strong resistance at the level of 0.9673 this week. The level of 0.9673 coincides with the last weekly support 1, which is expected to act as major resistance today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered oversold because it is below 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong below the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go down in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended below 0.9673 with the first target at the level of 1.6202. From this point, the pair is likely to begin a descending movement to the point of 0.9566 and further to the level of 0.9515. The level of 0.9515 will act as strong support. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.9673, then this scenario may become invalidated.

Intraday key levels:

Resistance 3:0.9848
Resistance 2:0.9752
Resistance 1:0.9670
Pivot Point:0.9592
Support 1:0.9515
Support 2:0.9433
Support 3:0.9367

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 04/04/2016:

Data from the US job market surprised market participants as it turned out to be better than expected. The Non-Farm Employment Change was at the level of 215K vs. 205K expected. The US average hourly earnings increased to 0.3% from 0.2% a month ago. A slight disappointment was caused by the unemployment rate that climbed slightly to 5.% from 4.9% a month ago, driven up by a larger number of people looking for work. In January, the jobless rate declined below 5% for the first time since 2008 and remained there for the first two months of the year. In conclusion, it was a very solid report, full of good data that the Fed's officials will definitely take into account during the next meeting.

Now let's take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. Bulls seem to be still in control after they made another higher high. There is no real sign of the bullish trend reveal in this time frame. Nevertheless, if the NFP low at the level of 1.1340 is violated and no immediate buy back will follow, than bears might push the price lower towards the next support at the level of 1.1220

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 04/04/2016:

Oil has been in decline once again overnight as on Friday, traders continue responding to reports that Saudi Arabia may not be willing to take part in the price freeze without all other major producers, both OPEC and non-OPEC. Moreover, the Wednesday inventories data was much worse than expected. The market participants anticipated 3.1M of stockpiles, a small raise from 2.3M last week. The figures released were at the level of 9.4M oil barrels. In conclusion, the US is running out of the inventory space to storage oil, and Iran is still hesitating to freeze the production after the sanctions have been removed. In that case, there is still room for lower prices in oil market.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of crude oil in the daily time frame. We can clearly see the oil fell out from the golden rising channel and currently it is trading below the 21DMA. It is hard to say whether bears are now fully in control over this market, but if support at the level of 34.94 is violated with a daily candle close below it, then the chances for a sell-off are high

 

[jebat66]

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,208.30 Supply trend line at the price of $1,245.00 was held successfully. According to the daily time frame, I found trading range between the price of $1,245.00 (resistance) and the price of $1,208.00 (support). Watch for a successful breakout of $1,208.00 to confirm further downward movement and then try to sell on the rallies. First downward take profit level is set at the price of $1,193.60. Second take profit level is set at the price of $1,177.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,223.25

R2: 1,224.00

R3: 1,225.80

Support levels:

S1: 1,220.00

S2: 1,219.00

S3: 1,217.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The market opened below the weekly pivot point. It continued moving downwards from the level of 1.4240 to the bottom around 1.4193. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.4268 followed by 1.4329, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.4079. The GBP/USD pair broke support, which turned into strong resistance at 1.4268 last week. The pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the resistance that is expected to act as major resistance today. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and is not showing any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.4268 and 1.4190, so we expect a range of 78 pips in coming days. Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 1.4268 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.4119. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.4119, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 1.4079 in order to test the weekly support 1. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario, which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.4268 today.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The EUR/USD pair will continue falling from the level of 1.1400 in the long term. It should be noted that the level of 1.1376 represents a minor resistance on the H1 chart. On the other hand, support is established at the level of 1.1326 which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the lowest level of 1.1376. So, sell below the level of 1.1376 - 1.1376 with the first target at 1.1326 in order to test the daily support. Moreover, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.1220. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.1220 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. However, in case a reversal takes place and the EUR/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.1400, then the market will show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 1.1400 with the targets at 1.1437 and further to 1.1520.

Intraday technical levels:

Date:4/04/2016

Pair:EUR/USD

R3: 1.1786
R2: 1.1611
R1: 1.1501
PP: 1.1326
S1: 1.1216
S2: 1.1041
S3: 1.0931

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 04/04/2016:

The impulsive wave progression to the upside has been completed and now the market is in the corrective cycle. Three waves of this corrective cycle are now almost completed with the projected targets at the level of 126.44 and 126.03 in case of extension in wave c purple. Please note that the alternative count still points out more complex and time consuming corrective cycle, labeled as (a) (b) (c) blue. Moreover, any violation of the level of 124.66 will invalidate the bullish impulsive count.

Support/Resistance:

124.66 - Blue Impulsive Cycle Invalidation Level

125.41 - WS2

126.03 - Projected Target For Wave c

126.24 - WS1

126.44 - Projected Target For Wave c

126.95 - Intraday Resistance

127.22 - Weekly Pivot

128.05 - WR1

128.21 - Local High

Trading recommendations:

Traders should refrain from trading and wait for another trading setup to occur .

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 04/04/2016:

A new local high has been made at the level of 1.3146, but the bulls weren't strong enough to clearly break out above the neutral zone. Currently, the market trades inside of the neutral zone between the levels of 1.3017 - 1.3148. Nevertheless, the outlook is bullish and only a sustained break out above the intraday resistance at the level of 1.3148 would confirm the bottom for wave (c) of wave Z brown is in place.

Support/Resistance:

1.2814 - WS1

1.2850 - Swing Low

1.3007 - Intraday Support

1.3048 - Weekly Pivot

1.3146 - WR1

1.3241 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should place buy stop orders at the level of 1.3148 with SL below the level of 1.3000 and TP open for now. Any big, impulsive, long hourly candle that breaks out above the intraday resistance might suggest the bulls are back in control and we will try to join them.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair has failed to post a sustained rebound following its decline below the 112.00 level last Friday. Last Friday US stocks rose, boosted by a strong March jobs report and other solid economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 17792, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 2072, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.9% to 4914. Health-care and consumer-staples shares were leading performers, while energy shares fell along with oil prices.

The US government reported that non-farm payrolls increased 215,000 in March (vs +205,000 expected, +245,000 in February), and average hourly earnings of private-sector workers were up 7 cents to $25.43 (vs -2 cents in February). Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 51.8 in March (vs 51.0 expected) from 49.5 in February, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was up to 91.0 in March (vs 90.5 expected) from 90.0 in February.

Nymex crude oil plunged 4.0% to $36.79 a barrel, gold declined 0.8% to $1,222 an ounce, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 1.793% from 1.784% in the previous session.

The US dollar edged lower against the euro in a session made volatile by the jobs report. EUR/USD was up 0.1% to 1.1386 (day-high at 1.1437, day-low at 1.1332).

On the other hand, GBP/USD dropped 1.0% to 1.4220. The Markit/CIPS U.K. Manufacturing PMI was at 51.0 in March (vs 51.2 expected, 50.8 in February). And the TNS online poll on "Brexit" showed that the "In" and "Out" camps were neck-to-neck with each side getting a support of 35%.

Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar weakened further along with plunging oil prices, with USD/CAD gaining 5 points to 1.3009 (day-high at 1.3146).

Currently, USD/JPY remains capped by the descending 20-period (30-minute chart) moving average, which stands below the 50-period one. Meanwhile, the intraday relative strength index stays below the neutrality level of 50 lacking upward momentum. The intraday outlook continues to be bearish and the first downside target at 111.20 is within reach. Support below that level would be found at 111.00.

Trading Recommendation:

The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 111.20. A break of this target will move the pair further downwards to 111.00. The pivot point stands at 112.00. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, long positions are recommended with the first target at 112.45 and the second target at 112.65.

Resistance levels: 112.45, 112.65, 113.05

Support levels: 111.20, 111.00, 110.65

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.6791 in a high volume. EUR/NZD is trading in a clearly defined upward trend channel. Watch for buying opportunities on dips inside the channel. I found successful rejection from the medium lane in upward channel, which is a good sign for futher upward movement. First take profit level at the price of 1.6645 has been reached. I found absorption of selling climax in the background, which is a sign that selling EUR/NZD looks very risky. Second take profit level is set at the price of 1.6850.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6885

R2: 1.6725

R3: 1.6790

Support levels:

S1: 1.6550

S2: 1.6510

S3: 1.6445

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.