daily market outlook

[jebat66]

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways around the price of $1,218.00. Price is trading in defined trading range between the price of $1,223.50 (resistance) and the price of $1,208.00 (support). If the price breaks the support level of $1,208.00 we may see potential testing of $1,193.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%). From the other side, if price breaks the level of $1,223.00 (resistance), we may see potential testing of $1,240.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,225.40

R2: 1,228.90

R3: 1,234.50

Support levels:

S1: 1,214.00

S2: 1,210.60

S3: 1,205.00

Trading recommendations for today:The market is moving sideways around the price of $1,220.00. Watch for successful breakout in a high volume to confirm further direction.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair rebounded from the major support level of 0.6717 and it is approaching its support now in order to test it. Moreover, it should be noted that the level of 0.6717 represents a weekly pivot point this week. So, it will probably start moving upside in this area and recover again.
Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the new support line of 0.6717 towards the first resistance level at 0.6770 in order to test it.
Therefore, buy at this spot with the first target at 0.6770 to form the double top (it should be noted that the level of 0.6765 represents the weekly resistance 1). If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6770, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 0.6770.
However, if the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.6770 today, the market will decline further to 0.6667 (double bottom).

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: This pair moved sideways on Monday, just like its USD/CHF rival. A movement below the support line at 1.1050 would easily render the recent bullish outlook invalid. It is expected that the EUR/USD pair would trend further south this week, so as most other EUR pairs.

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF: This pair moved sideways yesterday, and it has not assumed any directional movement this week. When a breakout occurs, it will take the price either above the resistance level of 0.9800 or below the supply level of 0.9700. A breakout above the resistance level of 0.9800 is most likely.

 

[jebat66]

GBP/USD: The Cable moved upwards by over 150 pips on Monday – only to get corrected lower. Right now, there is a serious threat of invalidation to the current bearish outlook on the market. A further northward movement of 200 pips would result in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart; whereas a movement below the accumulation territory at 1.4150 would reinforce the recent bearish indication on the market

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY: The perpetual bullish effort on the USD/JPY pair has already resulted in a "buy" signal, which remains valid. The EMA 11 is above the EMA 56; and the RSI period 14 is above the 50 level . Based on an upbeat outlook on the JPY pairs, the USD/JPY should be seen trading further upwards today and tomorrow

 

[jebat66]

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,243.84 in a high volume. Anyway, price respected strong resistance cluster at the level of $1,243.00 (previous swing low, downward trend line).To confirm further upward movement, I would like to see a breakout of the $1,245.50. According to the daily time frame, I found strong close of the bar in healthy volume. Watch for a successful breakout of $1,245.50 and then try to buy on the dips with the first target near the level of $1,259.00. Anyway, if we don't see a breakout of $1,245.50, the price may visit the level of $1,212.50 (support).

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,245.00

R2: 1,251.50

R3: 1,262.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,223.15

S2: 1,217.30

S3: 1,206.00

Trading recommendations for today:Watch for potential breakout of $1,245.50 to confirm further upward movement.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 0.6886 today. So, the support is found at the level of 0.6886, which represents the yesterday's bottom at the H1 time frame. Since the trend is above the level of 0.6886, the market is still moving up. Therefore, the NZD/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 0.6890. The current price is set at the level of 0.6910 that acts as a daily pivot point seen at 0.6915. Equally important is that the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the NZD/USD pair to move between 0.6890 and 0.6961. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 0.6890 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 0.6991. If the trend breaks the support at 0.6991(first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level of 0.7000 in order to form a new double top at the same time frame. Support is seen at the levels of 0.6886 and 0.6838. The stop loss should always be taken into account. It will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.6810 (below the support 2).

Comment:

Resistances: 0.6964 and 0.7000.
Pivot point: 0.6915.
Support: 0.6886 and 0.6838.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues moving downwards from the level of 0.9702, which represents the double top in the H1 chart. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.9702 to the bottom around 0.9632. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9702 followed by 0.9745, while daily support is seen at the levels of 0.9632 and 0.9589. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still trapping between the levels of 0.9702 and 0.9589. Hence, we expect a range of 113 pips in coming hours. The first resistance stands at 0.9702. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9702, the market will decline further to 0.9589. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9589 in order to test the second support (0.9589). On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9745 (the weekly pivot point), then this scenario may become invalidated. But, we guess that the downtrend will probably be continued as long as the level of 0.9702 is not broken.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/SEK has been trading down for an extended period of time and the fall does not seem to be over. Price remains below the 200 Moving Average. Yesterday, the confirming that bears are still driving this pair was rejected.

Applying the Fibonacci, it became obvious that price rejected both the 200 MA and the 61.8% Retracement level - R2 (9.2800). After that price started to move lower and broke below the 50% level - R1 (9.2475).

Currently the nearest downside target is at S2 (9.1740) as the S1 (9.2145) has already been broken. Consider selling EUR/SEK today while the price remains near R1, targeting either S2 or S3 support levels. The stop loss should be just above the R2.

Support: 9.2145, 9.1740, 9.1080

Resistance: 9.2475, 9.2800

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6261 in a very high volume. My second take profit has been reached. In the daily chart, the price finally broke (14 days) a trading range between the 1.6475 level (support) and the 1.6865 level (resistance). According to the 15M time frame, I found strong selling pressure and no demand bars near the level of 1.6360. Watch for intraday selling opportunities on rallies. The intraday take profit level is set at the price of 1.6260-1.6215.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6610

R2: 1.6670

R3: 1.6770

Support levels:

S1: 1.6415

S2: 1.6350

S3: 1.6255

Trading recommendation for today: There is strong downward pressure according to intraday time frames. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 30/03/2016:

Yesterday, the Fed Chairperson Jannet Yellen supported a rather cautious approach to the current policy and stressed gradual rate hike. This dovish statement was caused by global economic situation and financial uncertainties that might threaten the world's largest economy. Moreover, Yellen said inflation has not yet proven to be durable against the backdrop of stubbornly low oil prices and concerns over China. In conclusion, the global threats must first disappear or be reduced significantly before the data-depended Fed will hike the rates again.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The recent dovish remarks made by Yellen have caused a sell-off in the index, and bears are back to control over this market. The next support is seen at the level of 94.57, but it might get easily violated

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 30/03/2016:

The supply zone has been violated, but the market looks weak at the current levels. However, the wave progression inside this upward structure does not look too impulsive so far; it is more like a zig-zag structure. If the market breaks below the intraday support at the level of 126.45, bears will be in control over this market. Nevertheless, the alternative count suggests that the correction might be complex and time-consuming, but it cannot violate the 123.07 level. If it does, the alternative count will be in play. This suggests more downward wave progression towards the 122.06 level.

Support/Resistance:

127.45 - Intraday Resistance

127.42 - WR1

127.09 - 127.26 - Supply Zone

126.45 - Intraday Support

126.04 - Weekly Pivot

125.54 - WS1

124.67 - Local Low

124.18 - WS2

123.69 - WS3

123.07 - Green Impulsive Cycle Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should put trailing stop loss orders on long positions from the 123.00 area that is still in play and wait for the market's reaction at the supply zone. Any breakout higher might be another impulsive wave development towards the level of 128.18.

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 30/03/2016:

The alternative count with the truncated wave V turned out to be the correct one, and a deep and sudden correction followed break-out of the 1.3140 level. Currently, the corrective cycle looks like a zig-zag pattern which is typical for wave 2. Please notice that any break-out below the 1.2923 level will invalidate the bullish impulsive count.

Support/Resistance:

1.3495 - WR2

1.3416 - WR1

1.3217 - Weekly Pivot

1.3140 - WS1

1.3130 - Intraday Resistance

1.3017 - Intraday Support

1.2944 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

The buy orders are now closed as the trailing stop loss level has been reached. For now, traders should refrain from trading and wait for another setup

 

[jebat66]

Technical outlook and chart setups:

The EUR/JPY pair hit fresh highs at 127.45 levels yesterday, before pulling back lower. The pair is trading at 127.00 levels at the moment, intending to continue dropping lower towards the major trend that is downward.Please note that yesterdays' high can still be considered as a test, and a push below 126.00 would accelerate downside further. It is still recommended to remain short with risk around 128.30 levels. Immediate resistance is just above 128.00 levels, while support is seen below 126.00 levels respectively. On the flip side though, a push above 128.50 levels, would delay the downside further.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short now, stop at 128.30, target is open.

Good luck

 

[jebat66]

Overview

The USD/JPY pair settles near 112.00 level after the bearish rebound that appeared from 113.97 area. As long as the price is below this level, the correctional bearish track will remain valid and active for the upcoming period. Therefore, we believe the way is open to head towards our targets that begin at 110.00 and extend to 106.63, reminding you that breaching 113.97 will push the price to retest 116.14 level before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 111.00 support and 113.00 resistance

 

[jebat66]

Overview

Gold price is fluctuating around the key support 1227.40, which represents 23.6% Fibonacci of the rise measured from 1047.60 to 1282.90. Thus, it confirms that breaking this level will open the way to extend the bearish correction to target 1193.00 areas. On the other hand, stochastic offers clear positive signals that might protect the price from suffering more declines and add more strength to the current support areas, which makes us continue with our neutrality until the price offers a clearer signal for the next trend, which we will get through breaching one of the next trend keys represented by 1227.40 support and 1242.50 resistance. Please be aware that breaching this resistance will stop the correctional bearish pressure and lead the price to achieve gains that start at 1282.90 and extend to 1300.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 1205.00 support and 1250.00 resistance

 

[jebat66]

Overview

Silver price returns to test the bullish channel's support at 15.15, and as long as the price is above this level, chances are still high to resume the bullish trend on the intraday and short-term basis. Therefore, we will keep our bullish trend outlook that targets are seen at 15.70 followed by 16.35, noting that breaking 15.15 level will push the price to head towards 14.67 areas before hitting the next target on the short-term basis.

The expected trading range for today is between 15.00 support and 15.70 resistance.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving upwards. The price tested the level of 1.6449. Anyway, EUR/NZD is in downtrend and I found a breakout of bearish flag formation, which is a sign that we may see further bearish continuation. According to the 4H time frame, I found 3 bars in a row with a very weak close (weakness appeared). Watch for potential selling opportunities on the rallies. First take profit level is set at the price of 1.6265 (swing low).

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6475

R2: 1.6553

R3: 1.6630

Support levels:

S1: 1.6290

S2: 1.6230

S3: 1.6140

Trading recommendation for today: There is strong downward pressure according to intraday time frames. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.

 

[jebat66]

Since our last analysis, gold has been trading sideways at $1,233.00. A breakout of the $1,245.50 level is needed for continuation of upward movement. On the 30M time frame chart, I found selling climax in the background and successful testing of supply, which is the sign that professionals are interested in higher price. Watch for a successful breakout of $1,245.50 and then try to buy on the dips with the first target near the level of $1,259.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,240.50

R2: 1,245.60

R3: 1,253.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,224.15

S2: 1,218.30

S3: 1,210.00

Trading recommendations for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. Selling looks very risky.