daily market outlook

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, Gold has been moving upwards. As I expected , the price reached our first take profit level at $1,232.80. An accumulation phase took place and we got the strong effect (upward movement) from professionals. According to the 30M time frame, I found a massive volume spike (selling climax) in the background followed by a reversal up-thrust bar (demand overcame supply). Today we can observe again successful testing of supply in a low-average volume, which is a strong sign for me that professional money is still interested in an upward price. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. Take profit level is set near the price of $1,241.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,220.70

R2: 1,222.50

R3: 1,225.37

Support levels:

S1: 1,215.10

S2: 1,213.40

S3: 1,210.70

Trading recommendations for today: watch for buying opportunties on the dips.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/USD: Once EUR/USD tested the resistance line at 1.1400, it became difficult for the price to go above that line. Bulls have been battering that defense line since last week. As the bullish outlook on the market is valid, there is a high probability that the resistance line would be breached to the upside today or tomorrow

 

[jebat66]

USD/CHF: This currency trading instrument did not make any serious movements on Monday. There is a bearish confirmation pattern on the chart. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the oversold region. Further southward movement is possible, though there could also be a rally this week

 

[jebat66]

GBP/USD: The situation surrounding the cable is tricky now. The bulls and bears are struggling for domination. While further bearish correction is not ruled out, a rally is a great possibility because the April outlook for GBP is rather bright. This strength would be seen in most GBP pairs.

 

[jebat66]

USD/JPY: Since last Tuesday, this pair has been moving downwards. The price has declined by 260 pips, now it is below the supply level at 111.00. The EMA 11 is below the EMA 56 and the RSI period 14 is below the 50 level. The next target for bears is located around the demand levels at 110.50 and 110.00.

 

[jebat66]

EUR/JPY: There is a "sell" signal in EUR/JPY; and now there is a bearish confirmation pattern on the 4-hour chart. This cross started a bearish correction on April 1, 2016 and has continued it so far. The demand zone at 126.00 has been tested and it might be breached to the downside

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair has dropped sharply from the level of 0.6845 towards 0.6770. Now, the price is set at 0.6770 to act as a daily pivot point. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6845 and 0.6723 in coming hours.
Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.6852 and 0.6816, which coincides with the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level, respectively.
Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now.
Therefore, the price spot of 0.6852 and 0.6816 remains a significant resistance zone. Hence, a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 0.6816, sell below 0.6816 or 0.6780 with the first target at 0.6723.
If the trend is able to break the first support at the level of 0.6723, then the market will continue falling towards the level of 0.6667 so as to test the double bottom.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The trend of USD/CHF pair movement was controversial as it took place in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9556 and 0.9639. Also, the daily resistance and support are seen at the levels of 0.9556 and 0.9492 respectively. Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel is completed. Yesterday, the market moved from its bottom at 0.9556 and continued rising towards the top of 0.9639. Today, on the one-hour chart, the current rise will remain within a framework of correction. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9639, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 0.9639 (the level of 0.9639 coincides with the daily pivot point). Since there is nothing new in this market, it is not bullish yet. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.9639 with the first target at 0.9556. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.9556, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level of 0.9492 in order to test the daily support 1 (horizontal green line). On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9639, then this scenario may become invalidated.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 05/04/2016:

The Construction PMI, which is the key indicator of a household activity in UK, remained steady in March at the level of 54.2. This figure was 0.1 point lower than the market consensus, but still unchanged from February's 10-month low. The residential housing sector has recorded the weakest pace of growth since January 2013, despite efforts made by the government to spur more housebuilding. Nevertheless, 51% of survey respondents said they anticipate an increase in business activity at their units over the next 12 months, while only 11% forecast a slowdown. In conclusion, the housing market is still showing high level of performance and it can still contribute substantially to the next GDP reading (revised up to 0.6% from a previous estimate of 0.5%).

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. We can see the recent rejection of the level of 1.4324 (now resistance) and a downward move towards the support at the level of 1.4194. The market is clearly trading inside the triangle pattern and as long as the golden trend line is not clearly violated, the bulls and bears will fight to take the control over this market. The long term trend remains bearish.

 

[jebat66]

Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6659in . EUR/NZD is trading in a clearly defined upward trend channel. Watch for buying opportunities on dips inside the channel. I found successful rejection from the lower diagonal inside an upward channel. It is a good sign for further upward movement. The first take profit level is set at the price of 1.6795. I found absorption of selling climax in the background, which is a sign that selling EUR/NZD looks very risky. The second take profit level is set at the price of 1.6850.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6780

R2: 1.6820

R3: 1.6875

Support levels:

S1: 1.6665

S2: 1.6630

S3: 1.6570

Trading recommendation for today: Watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

 

[jebat66]

Since our previous analysis, Gold has been moving downwards. The price tested the level of $1,223.87. Since the accumulation phase in the background took the place, I am still expecting the higher price on the gold. I found strong support around the price of $1,224.00. I found the previous resistance level, which became support. Watch for buying opportunities on the dips. Take profit level is set near the price of $1,236.00.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,237.40

R2: 1,242.00

R3: 1,250.90

Support levels:

S1: 1,220.60

S2: 1,215.50

S3: 1,207.00

Trading recommendations for today: watch for buying opportunties on the dips.

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The USD/CHF pair rose from the level of 0.9550 towards 0.9603 yesterday. Now, the current price is set at 0.9600. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 0.9640. Besides, the daily bottom is seen at the level of 0.9550. Today, the USD/CHF pair is continuing moving in a bullish trend from the new support level of 0.9550 to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 0.9550 and 0.9640. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9550 with the first target at 0.9640 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Nevertheless, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9640, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.9640. The market will decline further to 0.9550 in order to return to the double bottom. Additionally, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9492.

Weekly technical levels:

R3: 0.9950
R2: 0.9868
R1: 0.9721
PP: 0.9639
S1: 0.9492
S2: 0.9410
S3: 0.9263

 

[jebat66]

Overview:

The NZD/USD pair continues moving downwards from the level of 0.6845. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 0.6852 (this level of 0.6852 coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels) to the bottom around 0.6758. The current price is seen at 0.6790. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.6845 followed by 0.6852, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6723. Currently, the price is moving in a bearish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bearish trending market. The price is still below the moving average (100) and (50). From this point, if the pair keeps trading below the minor support (0.6845), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to continue further towards the strong support at 0.6723. Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 0.6758. If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: NZD is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend.

Trading recommandations:

The resistance is seen at the level of 0.6845. Moreover, the market is still in a downtrend. We still prefer a bearish scenario. Then, sell deals are recommended below the level of 0.6845 with the first target at 0.6758. If the trend breaks the support level of 0.6758, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 0.6758.

 

[jebat66]

According to my yesterdays' analysis, EUR/CAD started moving higher after rejecting the S1 (1.4850)support and the 200 Moving Average. Pair broke above R1 (1.4960) once again confirming a bullish trend.

Consider holding on entering long positions from the current level targeting R2 (1.5130) resistance, which is 0% retracement level of the Fibonacci applied to the channel breakout point. The stop loss should be just below S1 (1.4850).

Support: 1.4850, 1.4760, 1.4670

Resistance: 1.4960, 1.5130

 

[jebat66]

NZD/CAD is trading in a clear range where 2 key levels can be seen. The resistance is near 0.9090, and the support is near 0.8910. Overall, price broke above the 200 Moving average and currently is rejecting it.This could be a signal that the rate is preparing to go further up.

However, it is better to wait for the confirmation,which could be a trend line breakout, to enter a long position. Therefore consider buying NZD/CAD on the trend line breakout, targeting the nearest resistance area around 0.9090 and stop loss just below the 0.8900.

Support: 0.8910

Resistance: 0.9090

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 06/04/2016:

The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday a decrease in the US oil inventories by the level of -4300K. This number was way below the market expectations of 2900K, which would be another increase from 2600K a week ago. Moreover, another oil news is scheduled for release today, Crude Oil Inventories at 02:30 GMT. Last time the released number was way above the market expectation that resulted in oil sell-off. This time the market is expecting a smaller rise in the stockpiles, up to the level of 2850K from 2229K a week ago. In conclusion, the never ending story in oil market regarding the supply glut will be still playing a vital role in the price movements as long as there are doubts about a potential oil-freeze deal between large OPEC members such as Russia and Iran.

Let's now take a look at the crude oil technical picture in the daily time frame. Bears managed to push the prices lower towards the 38%Fibo at the level of 36.00, just below the technical support at the level of 36.10. The 100 DMA provided the support as well, and currently the market is trying to trade higher, but the bulls move looks weak and only temporary. Bulls would have to break back above the 38.50 level to regain the control over this market.

 

[jebat66]

Global macro overview for 06/04/2016:

The US services sector reported a higher economic activity in March. The Institute for Supply Management reported that the ISM Non-Manufacturing index increased to 54.5 in March from 53.4 in the preceding month. Non-manufacturing industries account for more than 80% of the US economy. The sector was growing for six years, though its expansion cooled earlier this winter. In conclusion, the index is still above the 50-point level, so expectations concerning future are still positive and the GDP revisions might be to the upside.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture in the daily time frame. The longer term chart shows another lower low has been made since the top at the level of 100.50. It looks like the golden trend line is being tested from the downside now any failure to break out higher would result in another downward rally. Bears are still in control over this market

 

[jebat66]

General overview for 04/04/2016:

Another higher high has been made in this market as bulls are making their way towards the important technical resistance at the level of 1.3292. Currently, the bottom for the wave Z brown is confirmed as the market moved to the bullish zone. The golden trend line is providing the dynamic support and as long as this trend line is not violated the outlook remains bullish.

Support/Resistance:

1.2814 - WS1

1.2850 - Swing Low

1.3048 - Weekly Pivot

1.3124 - Intraday Support

1.3146 - WR1

1.3218 - Intraday Resistance

1.3241 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should place buy stop orders at the level of 1.3148 with SL below the level of 1.3000 and TP open for now. Any big, impulsive, long hourly candle that breaks out above the intraday resistance might suggest that bulls are back in control and we will try to join them.

 

[jebat66]

Overview

The gold price continues fluctuating near 1,227.40 levels close to the bearish correctional channel's resistance, keeping the chances for resuming the bearish correctional trend valid. The price is likely to get enough negative momentum to be pushed downwards. Therefore, our bearish trend expectations will remain valid and active in the upcoming sessions. The next target is located at 1,193.00. A breach of the 1,232.00 level will stop the expected decline and lead the price to an attempt to regain the bullish trend on the short-term basis.

 

[jebat66]

Overview

The silver price shows quite volatile moves near the minor bearish channel shown in the image. As long as the price is below the 15.30 level, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid and active in the upcoming period; and the price is likely to break the 15.00 level to open the way towards targets at 14.67 then 14.27 levels initially. We remind you that a breach of the 15.30 level will turn the price back to the bullish track, which main targets begin at the previously recorded top of 16.35.

The expected trading range for today is between the 14.65 support and the 15.30 resistance.