daily market outlook

EUR/USD: Altogether, this pair has been bearish so far this month. A movement below the support line at 1.1050 would easily render the recent bullish outlook invalid. As long as the price is above that support line, sellers should approach the market with caution. There would be a "sell" signal in the market once the price goes below the support line at 1.1050.
 
USD/CHF: What is happening on this currency trading instrument is best called a rally in the context of a downtrend. The EMA 11 remains below the EMA 56, while the Williams' % Range period 20 is in the overbought region. This could mean that the price would continue moving up and up until the bearish bias is overturned
 
GBP/USD: On Thursday (March 24, 2016), the Cable performed an upward bounce in the context of a downtrend. However, the upward bounce is seen as a mere correction in the market because it is expected that the price would soon go further downwards (which makes the present price a good deal). The Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the chart makes this assumption sound rational.
 
USD/JPY: The perpetual bullish effort on the USD/JPY pair has already resulted in a "buy" signal. The price action on the chart subtly reveals some bullish propensity, although the market currently looks choppy. It is expected that the price would target the supply levels at 113.00 and 113.50 today or early next week.
 
EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY pair remains a flat market, and there would soon be a breakout, which would most probably favor the bulls. A closer look at the price reveals that the bulls have not given up their determination to push the price higher. While today may bring thin trading activities, next week would witness sustained trending movement.
 
The USD/JPY pair has tested the 113.00 barrier and is still below it. Stochastic loses its positive momentum in the daily time frame due to the last tight trading, supporting the chances of moving downwards to resume the overall bearish trend. Therefore, we still follow our bearish overview on the short-term basis as long as the price is below the 113.97 level, which targets 110.00 followed by 106.63 levels mainly. A breach of the 113.97 level will lead the price to retest the most important resistance for the short- and mid-term trading at 116.14 before any new attempt to decline.

We expect the trading range for today to be between 111.00 support and 113.50 resistance.
 
The gold price broke the 1,227.40 level and settled with a daily close below it, stopping the recently suggested bearish wave and putting the price into a correctional bearish track. Its next target is located at 1,193.00, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci for the rise measured from 1,047.60 to 1,282.90. Therefore, the bearish bias is expected for the upcoming sessions, supported by the negative pressure. A break of 1,227.40 – 1,235.35 levels will stop the correctional bearish pressure and lead the price to regain its bullish trend again.

We expect the trading range for today to be between 1,193.00 support and 1,240.00 resistance.
 
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving sideways around the 1.6660 mark. On the H4 time frame chart, the price is still trading in a defined trading range between the 1.6475 level (support) and the 1.6865 level (resistance). As the market is currently strong, I expect testing of the resistance level at 1.6865. Anyway, wait for a successful breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction. On the daily time frame chart, we can observe the sideways market and very low volatility for this currency pair. According to 30M time frame, intraday selling climax and demand have appeared, which is a sign of intraday bullish behavior.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6715

R2: 1.6740

R3: 1.6775

Support levels:

S1: 1.6640

S2: 1.6615

S3: 1.6575

Trading recommendation for today: There is bullish pressure according to intraday time frames. However, the market is still sideways in the short-term prospective. Watch for a breakout of a trading range to confirm further direction.
 
Since our last analysis, gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the $1,223.00 level. Our head and shoulders formation is still active and it has been progressing so far. Our first take profit level at $1,225.00 has been reached. Next, downward take profit level is set at $1,193.00 (major Fibonacci retracement 38.2%).On the 30M time frame chart I found a potential end of bullish correction and starting of bearish continuation. I found volume spike (buying climax) in the background, followed by up-thrust bars and high effort with low result bars, which is a clear sign of weakness. Watch for selling opportunties. First intraday take profit level is set at $1,212.50.

Daily Fibonacci pivot points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1,221.70

R2: 1,223.40

R3: 1,226.00

Support levels:

S1: 1,216.30

S2: 1,214.60

S3: 1,211.90

Trading recommendations for today: be careful when buying gold, watch for selling opportunities on rallies.
 
On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 0.6760 (upper limit of the previous consolidation range) was mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6860, where a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on March 18.

Note that a daily closure below 0.6760 was needed to allow a quick bearish decline towards 0.6550 (the depicted support level).

For those who missed the initial trade, another sell entry can be offered around 0.6760 if a bullish pullback is expressed. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.6600 and 0.6540.
 
A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown on the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

The price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stands as a prominent support level to be watched for significant bullish rejection and a valid buy entry. It is already running in profits.

The price level of 1.3300 constitutes a significant resistance level to be watched for bearish price action. It corresponds to 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend.

Hence, a valid sell entry can be taken if enough bearish rejection is expressed.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakdown below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.
 
Global macro overview for 25/03/2016:

The UK Retail Sales data was released yesterday and it was better than expected. The market expected the sales to be at the level of -0.7% m/m (3.5% y/y) after very good figures were logged last month ( 2.3% m/m; 5.4% y/y). But the market was surprised with the lower than expected drop to the level of -0.4% m/m (3.8% y/y). In conclusion, the British consumers had been supporting the domestic economy in a rather sturdy manner over the past few months. That is why the BoE predicted household consumption would increase by 2.75% this year. Nevertheless, despite the overall good data, there are some first signs of a possible slowdown in consumer spending. The British Retail Consortium has recently published a report showing annual growth in retail spending decrease to 1.1% in February from 3.3% in the prior month. Now there is still a question whether the households with more disposable income (saved due to near zero inflation and record employment) will continue to spend the hard earned cash to support the domestic economy.

Let's now take a look at the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair at the H4 time frame. We can clearly see the recent break out below the golden trend line and the price rejection at the level of 1.4182 (Doji Candle). Currently, the market is trying again to test the golden trend line form below. However, as long as the level of 1.4182 is not broken, the bears remain in control over this market
 
According to my previous analysis, NZD/CAD is expected to fall. Price remains near the R1 resistance that hasn't been broken. Overall, the entry point for short positions looks very attractive, especially when the price is right at the top of the descending channel and below the 200 Moving Average.

Consider holding or entering short positions while the price is near R1 (0.8890), targeting either S2 (0.8740) or S3 (0.8650) . The stop loss should be well above the 0.8900 psychological resistance.

Support: 0.8830, 0.8740, 0.8650

Resistance: 0.8890, 0.8980
 
Yet again AUD/CAD is trading right at the R1 resistance (0.9965). Price attempted to break above it yesterday, but failed to do so. While resistance is holding, the probability of a substantial corrective wave down remains highly probable.

According to my previous analysis, consider holding or entering short positions targeting either S2 (0.9830) or S3 (0.9750). The stop loss should be just above the psychological resistance of 1.0000.

Support: 0.9880, 0.9830, 0.9750

Resistance: 0.9965, 1.0000
 
On January 28, the depicted support at 0.6400 acted as a prominent key level offering a valid buy entry. A bullish breakout above 0.6550 was executed a few weeks ago.

Bullish persistence above 0.6550 (depicted recent support) was needed to keep the price moving towards higher bullish targets.

The price zone of 0.6750-0.6840 constituted a significant resistance zone where signs of a bearish rejection were seen during the previous few weeks (triple-top reversal pattern).

On February 9, the NZD/USD pair failed to consolidate below the depicted support level of 0.6550.

Moreover, an obvious bullish recovery was expressed around the depicted temporary support level. Hence, the recent bullish swing towards 0.6750 was initiated.

Bullish persistence above 0.6760 (upper limit of the previous consolidation range) was mandatory to allow further bullish advancement towards 0.6860, where a bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed on March 18.

Note that a daily closure below 0.6760 was needed to allow a quick bearish decline towards 0.6550 (the depicted support level).

For those who missed the initial trade, another sell entry can be offered around 0.6760 during today's consolidations.

Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.6600 and 0.6540
 
A bullish breakout above the previous consolidation zone between 1.2400 and 1.2800 was performed on July 15 (shown in the weekly chart).

A significant bearish rejection was observed around 1.3450. Hence, another consolidation range was established from 1.3450 down to 1.2800.

On December 7, a bullish breakout above 1.3450 (the upper limit of the recent consolidation range) enhanced the bullish side of the market. Hence, a bullish visit to the resistance level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) was executed.

Bullish persistence above 1.4150 enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.4650 (141.4% Fibonacci expansion) where an evident bearish rejection was expected (bearish engulfing weekly candlestick).

The level of 1.4120 (Fibonacci Expansion 100%) stood as a significant key level to be watched for further price reactions.

Although the price zone of 1.3170-1.3250 was expected to offer bullish support for the USD/CAD pair, temporary bearish breakdown of the same price zone is being manifested on the daily chart.

This price zone corresponded to the depicted weekly uptrend line and the upper limit of the previous consolidation range (prominent breakout level).

The price level of 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) stands as a prominent support level to be watched for significant bullish rejection and a valid buy entry. It is already running in profits.

The price level of 1.3300 constitutes a significant resistance level to be watched for bearish price action. It corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci level and the backside of the broken weekly uptrend.

Hence, a valid sell entry can be taken if the current bearish rejection is maintained.

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish breakdown below 1.2975 (61.8% Fibonacci level) to SELL the USD/CAD pair. Initial T/P levels should be located at 1.2770 and 1.2550.
 
On January 21, after the GBP/USD pair moved below 1.4340, evident signs of a bullish recovery were expressed around 1.4075. Hence, previous weekly candlesticks closed above 1.4340 again.

Bullish persistence above 1.4488 was mandatory to maintain enough bullish strength in the market. The first bullish target was seen at 1.4615 where the most recent bearish swing was initiated.

As previous weekly candlesticks maintained their bearish persistence below the depicted demand zone (below 1.4340), the next demand level located at 1.3845 (historical bottom that goes back to March 2009) provided significant bullish rejection on February 26.

As expected, an evident bullish recovery and a bullish engulfing weekly candlestick were expressed around 1.3850 (prominent weekly demand level). That is why, a valid buy entry was suggested near the same level.

Recently, the price zone of 1.4340-1.4488 constituted a significant supply zone to offer evident bearish rejection.

Temporary bearish rejection was manifested via the previous weekly candlestick until March 16 when the price level of 1.4050 managed to push the pair again to the upside (note the lower tail of the previous weekly candlestick).

Note that bullish persistence above the price level of 1.4488 is needed to allow further bullish advancement towards 1.4620 to take place.

Otherwise, a quick bearish movement towards the price levels of 1.4060 and 1.3960 should be expected
 
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2100 and 1.2000 where historical bottoms had been previously set in July 2012 and June 2010. Hence, a long-term bearish target is projected towards 0.9450.

In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level of 1.0570, which had been previously reached in August 1997.

Later in April 2015, a strong bullish recovery was observed around the mentioned demand level.

April's monthly candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one. However, the next monthly candlesticks (September, October, and November) reflected a strong bearish rejection in the area around 1.1400.

December's candlestick came as a bullish engulfing one, allowing the current bullish pullback to take place towards 1.1370.

In February, the price zone of 1.1350-1.1400 acted as a significant supply zone during the previous bullish pullback. Hence, another bearish rejection should be expected around the current price zone during the current bullish swing.

On the other hand, the level of 0.9450 will remain a long-term bearish target in case the current monthly candlestick closes below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0570.
 
In November 2015, daily persistence below the level of 1.0800 (prominent key level) ensured enough bearish momentum towards 1.0550 (monthly demand level) where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

During the last few weeks, a consolidation range between 1.1000 and 1.0800 was established in the daily chart. On February 3, a bullish breakout was executed above this consolidation range.

Consequently, a quick bullish movement started towards the zone of 1.1350-1.1400 where previous daily bottoms and the backside of the broken uptrend were depicted on the daily chart.

On February 12, a strong bearish engulfing daily candlestick was expressed near the mentioned supply zone. Hence, a quick bearish decline towards 1.1000 was executed.

A temporary bearish breakdown below 1.1000 (upper limit of the broken range) was seen in the daily chart. A quick bearish decline was expected towards 1.0820 where the most recent bullish swing was initiated.

Recently, bullish fixation above 1.1000 was mandatory to allow bullish movement to continue. Bullish targets were expected around 1.1320 and 1.1400 (recently visited).

Similar to what happened on February 12, the supply zone of 1.1320-1.1400 stands as a significant resistance zone for the EUR/USD pair to offer bearish rejection and a valid sell entry.

Trading Recommendation:

A valid sell entry can be offered around the supply zone of 1.1320 - 1.1400. T/P levels should be placed at 1.1200 and 1.1070. S/L should be placed above 1.1460.

Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards 1.1000 to buy the EUR/USD pair. S/L should be placed below 1.0940.
 
Recently, EUR/NZD has been moving downwards. As I had expected, the price tested the level of 1.6559 in a high volume. My first take profit level at the price of 1.6630 has been reached. On the daily chart, the price is still trading in the defined trading range between the 1.6475 level (support) and the 1.6865 level (resistance). According to the 30M time frame, I found the successful rejection of resistance level (1.6630) and the potential end of the bullish corrective phase (abcd). Watch for intraday selling opportunities on rallies. The intraday take profit level is set at the price of 1.6475. Anyway, according to the short-term prospective, wait for a successful breakout of the trading range to confirm further direction.

Fibonacci Pivot Points:

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.6700

R2: 1.6735

R3: 1.6780

Support levels:

S1: 1.6615

S2: 1.6585

S3: 1.6540

Trading recommendation for today: There is downward pressure according to intraday time frames. However, if you are a short-term trader watch for a breakout of a trading range to confirm further direction
 
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