Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

[CSFX.Support]

Disney Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Disney Gains in Pre-Market Trading As Rosy Outlook Overshadows Falling Profit

Shares of The Walt Disney Co. added 1.83% in the extended-trading hours on Thursday, as Chief Executive Robert Iger managed to rally hopes after the company announced disappointing earnings and revenue.

The media conglomerate reported net income of $1.77 billion, or $1.10 a share, on sales of $13.1 billion for the last quarter with cable networks’ operating income dropping $207 million year-over-year to $1.4 billion.

ESPN, the company’s sports-programming network contributed the largest part to the big earnings miss, as it was hit by lower advertising and affiliate revenue, not to mention higher costs for production and for rights to live sports broadcasts.

However Chief Executive Iger’s rosy outlook reassured investors. in Thursday’s conference call, Iger said that “To some extent, the causes of (subscriber) losses have abated,”, while added that Disney could reach the subscribers ESPN has lost through so-called skinny bundles as it has signed on to approaching efforts of smaller, internet-delivered programming bundles from Hulu and AT&T’s DirectTV.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 97.00, take profit at 99.00, stop loss at 96.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 11, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 11, 2016



Selloff in emerging markets deepened on Friday as investors concerned amid concern higher U.S. interest rates under incoming President Donald Trump will spark capital outflows from developing economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.4 percent on views that Trump's tax cuts and spending plans will push up inflation, which paves the way for the Federal Reserve to hike rate.

On Wall Street overnight, Dow Jones industrial average smashed through its previous record high set in August by almost 1 percent. Another U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index added 0.2 percent but the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.8 percent as traders assessed Trump’s plan on immigration policy could prevent Silicon Valley from attracting talent from around the world as it does now.

Industrial metals extended their biggest weekly jump in five years with copper having rallied for the third consecutive week. The red metal has risen nearly 30% over the last three week and 18% since the start of this week to reach 17-month highs at $2.6740/lb. Chinese government’s new plan calling for additional spending on building and construction projects and the Donald Trump’s pledges on infrastructure improvements are reasons behind the rally.

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd witnessed Singles' Day sales surpassing last year's 91.2 billion yuan ($13.36 billion) total with nearly nine hours left on the clock. The annual event on Nov. 11 offers a benchmark for Alibaba's performance and an insight into China's swing to online shopping, especially via smartphones. The company on Friday said that 84% of sales in the first two hours were via mobile devices, up from last year.



Technicals

USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been on a steady rise after trading sideways for more than 3 weeks. The pair reached its highest level since late-February on Wednesday at 1.35242 and is approaching the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.35731. Two MAs placed below the price action and an edging-higher RSI are supporting for the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.35000, Take profit at 1.35730, Stop loss at 1.34650



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD resumed its downtrend after rebounding from the firm support at 0.75600. A short correction could not sustain the pair to trade above the 23.6% level. The Aussie fell back below this Fibonacci retracement again and looked set to breach the support at 0.75600 as the market is in favor of sellers. MA20 has penetrated the MA50 from above, indicating extended downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.75600, Take profit at 0.75100, Stop loss at 0.76000



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY pulled back as the bullish momentum failed to support to pair to surpass the highest level since mid-October at 79.645. The price has broken below the 23.6% level at 78.636 but is facing a dynamic support which is the short-term MA20. However, with two lines of the Stochastic chart are pointing to the oversold zone, CADJPY is expected to cross over the MA20 to test the next Fib support at 38.2%.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 78.500, Take profit at 78.000, Stop loss at 78.700



Natural Gas



Fig: Natural Gas H4 Technical Chart

Natural Gas futures price keeps falling under downward pressure from two MAs moving above the price action. The short-term MA20 has consistently forced the price to reverse lower to approach the 50.0% again. Last time, this level has support the natural gas but this time, a breakout is likely to happen. Coupled with ADX that is soaring, a gap between +DI and –DI lines consolidating further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2.600, Take profit at 2.520, Stop loss at 2.645



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI has been under downward pressure from two MAs hanging above the price action. The price crawled back after hitting the long-term MA50 at 45.47 and has fallen below the short-term MA20 as well. With RSI remaining in the bearish zone and pointing down, the crude price is expected to retest the support at 43.05.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 44.10, Take profit at 43.05, Stop loss at 44.60



FTSE100



Fig: FTSE 100 H4 Technical Chart

U.K. FTSE100 index has dropped back to the 23.6% retracement from the major threshold 7,000. The price action has crossed over both MAs and is likely to breach below the 23.6% level as can be seen from the chart, recent candles have been under strong bearish force with almost no or very short upper shadow. %K line is taking the lead over the %D line, suggesting further down moves.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 6731.00, Take profit at 6650.00, Stop loss at 6760.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

EURUSD Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

EURUSD Drops Steeply After Fed Fischer Consolidates December Rate Hike

Euro plunged to eight-month lows versus the U.S. dollar on Friday after Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer strengthened the case for raising interest rate by the year’s end. The U.S. economic data on Friday also support the sentiment.

Speaking in a conference at the Central Bank of Chile, Fischer said “the case for removing accommodation gradually is quite strong” as the central bank has almost reached its goals for employment and price stability.

Fischer also expressed confidence that headwinds from financial markets “have generally improved’ compared to earlier this year thanks since initial market turbulence following the Britain’s June 23 referendum to leave the European Union had diminished. The Fed official stated that “I am cautiously optimistic that the drag on the U.S. economy and inflation from past dollar appreciation may have mostly worked itself out, and that foreign economies are on a somewhat more secure footing that poses smaller downside risks to the U.S. economy.”

As stated by data from the University of Michigan on Friday, consumer confidence rose to a five-month high in early November. The preliminary index of sentiment for the month climbed to 91.6 from 87.2 in October but it only reflected Americans’ optimism about the economy in the days before the presidential election concluded.

The final report for this month, which is scheduled for released on November 23th, will include additional interviews conducted through November 20th. The final version is expected to offer a full picture of how Donald Trump’s election as the 45th president of the U.S. has affected consumer attitudes.

The U.S. dollar has advanced for every single trading day since the start of this week and especially rallied against the Euro since the shock win of Republican Donald Trump amid speculation Trump’s spending plans will fuel inflation and spur economic growth. Fischer on Friday also talked about the need for more fiscal policy, saying more economic stimulus from the government would “ease the task of monetary policy.”

According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, the market-implied probability of a December interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve, jumped above 80% after dropping to less than 50% as election results pointed to a Trump victory.

EURUSD fell deeper below the 61.8% bar and even dropped lower than the last low at 1.08500 – the trough since October 03rd. As can be observed from recent candles, most of them has long upper shadows, which indicate strong bullish force at early trade was eventually overshadowed by sellers. The market has neared the oversold zone, therefore, a correction is likely to happen.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 1.08100, Take profit at 1.08500, Stop loss at 1.07900

 

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After Trump’s Win, Economic Data and Fed’s Rate Hike Under The Spotlight

After Trump’s Win, Economic Data and Fed’s Rate Hike Under The Spotlight

After a historic week with Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the U.S. presidential election, markets may refocus on economic data and any signs from the Federal Reserve that the U.S. interest rates will be increased in December.

The greenback has had an unforgettable Wednesday last week when it dropped strongly throughout the vote count process which pointed to a lead of the Republican Party nominee. However, the currency soon reclaimed its lost strength in the wake of President-elect Trump’s plans to end the country’s years of fiscal austerity.

The dollar hit its highest levels in nine months against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday, amid mounting expectations for a December rate hike. For the week, the U.S. dollar index advanced more than 2.0%, boosted by hopes that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under a Trump administration will bolster economic growth and inflation, which in turn will prompt the Fed to tighten borrowing costs.

On Friday, Vice Chair Fischer said the central bank was close to achieving its two goals with the case of a hike relatively strong. Indeed, while the U.S. economy is close to full employment, with the jobless rate below 5%, Trump’s election promise to cut taxes and improve infrastructure could provide a big boost to both growth and inflation.

According to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool, investors are currently pricing an 82% chance of a rate hike at the Fed’s final meeting of this year.

Official U.S. data on Thursday will likely show consumer price index inflation picked up slightly last month, up 0.4 percent on the month and 1.6 percent on the same month last year. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, is expected to hit 2.2 percent.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to a number of the U.S. economic indicators including retail sales and so-called core retail sales on Tuesday, Producer Price Index and Industrial Production on Wednesday, and Building Permits and Consumer Price Index on Thursday. However, the focus next week will be on congressional testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday before the Joint Economic Committee. Fresh indications on whether interest rates will rise next month will be closely watched.

Sterling closed higher for the second consecutive week, rising nearly 600 pips against the U.S. dollar since its lows in late October. The Cable has enjoyed a steady rise thanks to short covering, rising gilt yields and fading concerns about the U.K. economy post Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Thursday called President-elect Donald Trump to congratulate him on his “hard-fought election campaign and victory.” According to the statement, May highlighted her intention to strengthen investment and bilateral trade with the U.S. in light of Brexit. She also noted that Britain and the U.S. “have always stood together as close allies.”

Mr. Trump, in turn, “strongly agreed” with this claim, saying the United Kingdom is “a very, very special place for me and our country” and invited Ms. May to visit him as soon as possible after he takes office in January.

Sterling will be in focus with data on CPI and Inflation Report Hearings on Tuesday, reports on employment on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday along with speeches from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Nemat Shafik and newly appointed member of the BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee Michael Saunders.

In contrast to the Pound’s rally, the euro dropped to its lowest level since January on Friday, as U.S. dollar continuing to power higher. Most of next week’s Eurozone economic reports are second-tier, except for preliminary estimates of third quarter growth on Tuesday. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak on Monday and Friday. His views will be market moving.

Among commodity currencies, the New Zealand dollar fell deepest since the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to a fresh record low on Thursday. The central bank said that it didn’t feel it’s necessary to cut rates again, but left the door for further stimulus open, saying “numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.”

In the coming week, investors will be eagerly waiting for reports on New Zealand’s retail sales and inflation numbers.

The Australian dollar was driven by commodity prices in the past week. The Aussie hit seven-month highs at 0.77771 against the U.S. dollar, boosted by the rally in copper and iron ore prices. However, the pair failed to sustain its bullish sentiment and fell off to one-month lows at 0.75246. The RBA minutes published on Tuesday and Australian employment reports due on Thursday are the main focus next week.

No major economic reports were released from Canada last week; therefore, the currency was driven by the movement of the U.S. dollar and the oil prices. With oil stumbling and Trump’s shock win which puts the North American Free Trade Agreement at risk, the Canadian dollar dropped to the lowest since late February on Friday. In the week ahead, the Statistics Canada will report about manufacturing sales for October on Wednesday, and consumer prices for the same month on Friday.

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 14, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 14, 2016



The U.S. dollar hit a nine-month peak in Asia on Monday while shares of developing nations fell, as the victory of Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election on November 08th sent Treasury yields to multi-month highs. The outlook of faster domestic inflation and wider budget deficits in the U.S. triggered a massive sell off in Treasuries. Yields on the U.S. 10-year notes on Monday climbed to their highest since January at 2.21%, while 30-year government bonds reached 3%.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar extended gains, driven by speculations that Trump’ spending plan will nudge the Federal Reserve to raise rates in December. According to the dollar futures contracts, investors are betting on an 84% chance that the Fed will make a move on its rates at its final meeting for the year next month.

In commodities, the rampant U.S. dollar depressed gold as the greenback-dominated asset becomes more expensive for purchasers holding other currencies. Gold lost 0.8% to $1,212 an ounce. However, industrial metals extended their bull run, with copper adding more than 1%.

Japan's economic growth was reported to expand for a third straight quarter, comfortably beating expectations in the July-September period. According to the Japanese Cabinet Office on Monday, the world's third-largest economy expanded by an annualized 2.2% in the third quarter, faster than the 0.9% increase markets had expected, as a rebound in exports compensated for continued weak domestic activity.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained his optimistic view of the economy, which has been boosted by an improvement in the global economy. Nonetheless, he also acknowledged that fragile private consumption rendered companies hesitant to raise the prices of their goods and services. This is delaying achievement of the central bank's 2% inflation target.

Coupled with fears that president-elect Donald Trump will impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports, disappointing retail sales growth is increasingly clouding the country economy’s outlook. Although fixed-asset investment quickened slightly in October thanks to the government’s spending on infrastructure to support growth, retail sales growth slowed to 10%, missing estimates for 10.7%.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Euro fell deeper below the 1.28500 resistance on Monday and is approaching the lowest since early-January at 1.07150. As can be observed from the ADX chart, while the ADX index is on a rise, the –DI line has been pointing downwards, which indicates a weakening downtrend. This is understandable as the market has neared the oversold zone and a pullback is easy to happen.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 1.07150, Take profit at 1.07800, Stop loss at 1.06900.



AUDNZD



Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD has breached the 38.2% retracement at 1.06300 and is attempting the resistance at 1.07000 with a strong uptrend. ADX index has soared above 20 level, confirming the up moves. While RSI has neared the overbought zone, a wide gap between the +DI and –DI line may fuel the pair to edge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.06500, Take profit at 1.07000, Stop loss at 1.06290



EURCAD


Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD has broken below the 23.6% but it is struggling around the support at 1.45900 where it failed to cross over last week. Two MAs lingering above the price action has restrained the bullish sentiment and been exerting downward on the pair, consolidating further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.45600, Take profit at 1.44800, Stop loss at 1.45900



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver on one hand failed to surpass the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 17.418, but on the other hand, the metal has been supported by the handle at 17.075. This level has forced silver to reverse higher three times since early June. However, the short-term MA20 has crossed over the long-term MA50 from above, confirming the downtrend. A breakout is expected.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 17.070, Take profit at 16.780, Stop loss at 17.400



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

U.K. Brent crude resumed its down moves following a small gap up on the opening. Dragged down by two MAs hanging above the price action, the commodity is on the verge of falling as low as the 38.2% retracement. The market remains in the bearish zone, with the divergence between the –DI and +DI lines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 44.50, Take profit at 43.70, Stop loss at 45.00



SP500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

Sp500 futures index opened the new week with a gap up on Monday after pulled back from the support at 2155.00 on Friday. The index has experienced a correction after soaring more than 6% last Wednesday. ADX line is heading down but the +DI has crossed over the –DI from below, suggesting an extended uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2179.00, Take profit at 2188.00, Stop loss at 2174.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

USD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

USD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 06:00 14/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 14/11/2016

Buy at 107.600
Take profit at 108.300
Stop loss at 107.300

 

[CSFX.Support]

Brent Crude Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Traders Cast Doubts on OPEC’s Output Cut Deal, WTI In Bearish Mood

U.S. crude (WTI) prices swung between gains and losses on Monday; weighed by concerns that global glut will remain over a long time as OPEC saw record output last month while U.S. rig count continued to rose last week.

NYMEX crude for December delivery held near $43.05 per barrel, the weakest level since September 20th. Oil has been under downward pressure since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday reported that its output rose to a record 33.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up 240,000 bpd from the previous month.

Investors are skeptical about OPEC’s plan to curb output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day reached in their meeting in Algeria late September. According to Algeria’s state news agency on Sunday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that it was imperative for OPEC members to reach a consensus on activating such deal.

However, investors are also concerned over the effectiveness of any agreement reached during the cartel’s Nov. 30 meeting, as not only are OPEC’s members namely Iran, Nigeria and Libya ramping up their output but U.S. oil producers are coming back to the market.

While Iran has been reported to open three oilfields with a total production of more than 220,000 bpd on Sunday, Baker Hughes on Friday also showed active drilling rigs in the U.S. rose by two to 452 in the week to Nov. 11, marking the 21th increase over the last 24 weeks.

Some analysts claimed that Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s U.S. election will open a chance for the domestic energy industry to be revitalized. Therefore, any agreement to cut output and support prices from some OPEC and non-OPEC members may be a victory for U.S. shale producers.

Fig: WTI D1 Technical Chart

WTI crude price has been wobbled above the 43.05 support. This level proves to be a firm stance that has prevented price from falling deeper since the start of September. Crude price pulled back last Wednesday but failed to move past the 23.6% Fibonacci level. With the short-term MA20 having crossed the long-term MA50 from above, the commodity may test the 38.2% support at 42.20.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 43.00, Take profit at 42.20, Stop loss at 43.40

 

[CSFX.Support]

Natural Gas Trade Idea By Capital Street FX

Cooler Weather Forecasts Send Natural Gas Higher

U.S. natural-gas futures reversed a long side to climb to their highest since November 08th on Monday, as weather forecasts showed patches of normal and below-normal temperatures across the East.

Futures for December delivery recently gained nearly 5% to $2.775 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as investors bet that a cooler weather will provide a boost in demand that help deplete record inventory levels of natural gas.

The Energy Information Administration last Thursday reported that U.S. natural-gas supplies climbed to a record 4.017 trillion cubic feet for the week ended November 04th.

About half of all U.S. homes use natural gas for heat, thus the fuel market’s movements in the winter are often determined by the amount of cold in weather forecasts.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2.760, Take profit at 2.800, Stop loss at 2.740

 

[CSFX.Support]

Brent Crude Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Traders Cast Doubts on OPEC’s Output Cut Deal, WTI In Bearish Mood

U.S. crude (WTI) prices swung between gains and losses on Monday; weighed by concerns that global glut will remain over a long time as OPEC saw record output last month while U.S. rig count continued to rose last week.

NYMEX crude for December delivery held near $43.05 per barrel, the weakest level since September 20th. Oil has been under downward pressure since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Friday reported that its output rose to a record 33.64 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, up 240,000 bpd from the previous month.

Investors are skeptical about OPEC’s plan to curb output to between 32.5 million and 33 million barrels a day reached in their meeting in Algeria late September. According to Algeria’s state news agency on Sunday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that it was imperative for OPEC members to reach a consensus on activating such deal.

However, investors are also concerned over the effectiveness of any agreement reached during the cartel’s Nov. 30 meeting, as not only are OPEC’s members namely Iran, Nigeria and Libya ramping up their output but U.S. oil producers are coming back to the market.

While Iran has been reported to open three oilfields with a total production of more than 220,000 bpd on Sunday, Baker Hughes on Friday also showed active drilling rigs in the U.S. rose by two to 452 in the week to Nov. 11, marking the 21th increase over the last 24 weeks.

Some analysts claimed that Donald Trump’s victory in last week’s U.S. election will open a chance for the domestic energy industry to be revitalized. Therefore, any agreement to cut output and support prices from some OPEC and non-OPEC members may be a victory for U.S. shale producers.

Fig: WTI D1 Technical Chart

WTI crude price has been wobbled above the 43.05 support. This level proves to be a firm stance that has prevented price from falling deeper since the start of September. Crude price pulled back last Wednesday but failed to move past the 23.6% Fibonacci level. With the short-term MA20 having crossed the long-term MA50 from above, the commodity may test the 38.2% support at 42.20.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 43.00, Take profit at 42.20, Stop loss at 43.40

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 15, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on November 15, 2016



The U.S. dollar lost its luster against the Euro and the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, as investors took profit after a rally following Donald Trump’s victory last week and his pledges to boost fiscal spending. The dollar index which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of currencies, pulled back from one-year high and looked set for the first loss since last Wednesday

Oil prices were pushed higher today by profit-booking and speculations that U.S. shale output will drop in December. Crude prices added 2% to move away from three-month lows logged the day before as market analysts forecast shale oil production in the U.S. would fall to its lowest since April 2014 at 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) next month.

In the Eurozone, German economic growth was reported to slow more than expected in the third quarter of 2016. According to the Germany's Federal Statistics Office, the economy grew by 0.2% on the quarter between July and September, missing consensus forecast for 0.3% growth, as net exports fell following the Brexit vote. The Statistics Office said private consumption has overtaken foreign trade as the most important growth driven in Germany.

Meanwhile in France, Insee (French national statistics bureau) reported that the country's Consumer Price Index was unchanged on the month in October due to falling services and food prices. Insee also added that the harmonized measure of annual price change known as HICP--rose 0.5% on year in October, the same as in September.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

The British Pound extended losses from over one-month highs at 1.26445. As can be seen from the chart, the price action has crossed over both short-term and long-term MAs, suggesting a reversal into downtrend. Coupled with soaring ADX, RSI index has dropped below the 50 line, indicating further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.24000, Take profit at 1.23500, Stop loss at 1.24400



EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD resumed its down moves after the pair crawled back from the lowest since early January at around 1.07150 recorded yesterday. The bullish sentiment which may result from profit-booking succeeded in preventing the market from falling into an oversold zone but failed to push the prices higher. The pair has still been under downward pressure from the two MAs and may retest the support at 1.07150 again.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.07700, Take profit at 1.07150, Stop loss at 1.07800



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD rebounded from 9-months high at 1.35882 recorded yesterday – which is also the 50% Fibonacci level. However, the short-term MA20 continued to support the price and may send it back to around the 50% retracement. RSI remaining in the bullish zone suggests a market in favor of buyers.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.35400, Take profit at 1.35880, Stop loss at 1.35100



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

SILVER has reversed lower at the handle of 17.075 – the level that has supported the metal yesterday. Silver corrects fell as low as 16.625 on Monday and sent its market into the oversold zone. Investors jumped in to buys the dips but sellers continued to damp the price lower. After a correction, the metal is anticipated to drop lower to test the 61.8% level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 16.900, Take profit at 16.550, Stop loss at 17.100



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent has been on a strong rise that brought the commodity to as high as 46.00 resistance. The price has broken above the short-term MA20 but is struggling around the long-term MA50 and the 46.00 level. RSI has surpassed the 50 level, consolidating the up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 46.10, Take profit at 46.80, Stop loss at 45.80



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical Chart

NASDAQ 100 has been sliding after the index failed to break a couple of MAs which are hanging above the price action. As can be observed from the RSI chart, bears had jumped in to prevent the market from penetrating the bullish area. With long upper shadows in recent candles that indicate overwhelming sellers in the market, NASDAQ may reattempt the support at 23.6% level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4699.00, Take profit at 4675.00, Stop loss at 4712.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:00 15/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 15/11/2016

Sell at 1.02000
Take profit at 1.01400
Stop loss at 1.02300

 

[CSFX.Support]

Home Depot Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Spurred by Growing Property Market, Home Depot Raises Earnings Forecasts

Shares of Home Depot Inc. rose 1.6% to $129.65 in premarket trading after the Atlanta-based company reported rising sales in the third quarter on Tuesday.

Home Depot posted a profit of $2 billion, or $1.60 a share, up from $1.73 billion, or $1.35, one year ago. In three months through September, sales at stores open at least a year advanced 5.5%, contributing to a continual increase in revenue which was reported to add 6.1% to $23.15 billion.

All results beat expectations thanks to a growing housing market in the U.S. and the fact that Americans become increasingly willing to spend on home-improvement projects.

For the full year 2016, the company forecasts earnings per share of $6.33, up 2 cents compared to its previous guidance. Sales are expected to increase 6.3%.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 129.00, Take profit at 131.00, Stop loss at 128.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

EURUSD Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Euro Gives Up Earlier Gains, Resuming the Downtrend versus the Dollar

Euro has pared its earlier gains versus the dollar on Tuesday as positive data from the U.S. sustained the greenback’s rally which was powered by the spending plan of President-elect Donald Trump.

The pair EURUSD was trading near its lowest level since early January at 1.07150 after a batch of economic reports supported the case for the Federal Reserve to raise its rates next month.

As stated by the Census Bureau, sales at U.S. retailers soared in October after a revised 1% advance in the previous month. The rally marked the best two-month stretch since early 2014, indicating that low interest rates and improvements in the labor market are encouraging Americans to borrow and spend. Retail sales jumped 0.8% last month, topping economists’ forecast by 0.1%. The result was boosted by strong sales from auto dealers, whose sales hit an 11-month high.

Another report which is about New York-area manufacturing conditions swung to positive reading in November for the first time in the last four months. The Empire Fed index rose 8.3 points to 1.5 with new-orders index adding 8.7 points to 3.1 and shipments index rising 9.1 points to 8.5.

Adding to supports for the dollar rally, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren on Tuesday said that speculations of an interest-rate hike this December are “plausible” given rising inflation and a job market near full employment.

A number of Federal Reserve officials will speak this week, and Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony on Capitol Hill on Thursday will be closely watched.

Fig: EURUSD D1 Technical Chart

EURUSD is struggling around the support at 1.07150 after falling off from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and another major support at 1.08000. As can be seen from indicator windows, the market has penetrated the oversold zone, which led to earlier correction today. In the event of continual down moves, the pair may reverse higher at 1.06300.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.07100, Take profit at 1.06300, Stop loss at 1.07500

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 16, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 16, 2016



Asian shares advanced for the first time in the last four trading days, led by energy stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific added 0.8% with energy sectors jumping 1.4%. Shares of energy companies surged high as crude oil has experienced the best daily gain in seven months, which was driven by OPEC efforts to agree output cuts.

Meanwhile, Japan’s Topix index rallied toa nine-month high thanks to gains in banking shares which have been powered by earnings reports and the recent surge in bond yields.

The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen in Asian morning session after extending its rally yesterday. However, investors are still betting on a high chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by the year’s end. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo on Tuesday said that an interest-rate rise next month was more likely than before. Fed funds futures imply a 94 percent probability of an increase.

Other Fed Presidents including James Bullard, Neel Kashkari and Patrick Harker are scheduled to speak on Wednesday and may shed more light on the likely trajectory of borrowing costs.

Oil futures pared some of their gains nearly 6 percent from the session before, sliding on Wednesday after an industry report showed an unexpected build in U.S. crude stocks last week. According to the weekly report by the American Petroleum Institute, crude inventories climbed by 3.6 million barrels to 488.8 million barrels in the week to November 11. Analyst had expected for an increase of 1.5 million barrels. Official figures on stockpiles from the U.S. Energy Information Administration are due later today.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has been moving sideways under a major resistance at 109.200 after breaking above the 38.2% level at 108.320. As can be observed from the Stochastic chart, the market has penetrated the overbought zone, however, the ADX index is soaring, which implies that the pair may surge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 109.200, Take profit at 110.200, Stop loss at 108.700



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD has been moving in a thin range under the resistance at 0.75600. The pair had to give up its strength as the price action failed to cross over short-term MA20. A sliding ADX indicates unclear trend on the market but a RSI index remaining in the bearish zone suggests that the Aussie may fall further.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.75400, Take profit at 0.75100, Stop loss at 0.75600



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Sugar has broken below a shrinking trading range yesterday and even breached the support at 21.10 – the lowest level in two weeks. The commodity pulled back as it hit the 23.6% retracement and closed the trading session at the 21.10 level. As investors have already jumped in and bought the dips, sugar may fall lower as the market has still been in a favor of sellers, as indicated by RSI chart.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 21.05, Take profit at 20.80, Stop loss at 21.25



S&P500



Fig: S&P500 H4 Technical Chart

S&P 500 index extended gains in yesterday session from the support at 2155.00. The U.S. benchmark has been powered by the short-term MA20 and may soar higher to attempt the record high at 2193.03 recorded three months ago. The last two candles with no shadows indicate a strong rally. RSI index which is pointing upwards also consolidates further up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2180.00, Take profit at 2193.00, Stop loss at 2174.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

GBPUSD Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

GBPUSD Slides Further As UK Jobless Claims Keep Soaring

GBPUSD looked set to decline for the third straight trading days after Claimant Count Change on Wednesday implied worsening labor conditions in the U.K.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during October rose by 9,800, topping market forecasts which called for an increase of 2,000. The data for September has also been revised to a rise of 5,600 from 700.

However, the U.K.’s unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in over a decade last quarter. In the three months to September, the unemployment rate stood at 4.8%, down from 4.9% in the preceding three-month period.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.24300, Take profit at 1.23800, Stop loss at 1.24550

 

[CSFX.Support]

Crude Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

U.S. Crude Supplies On A Rise, Will Doha Leave OPEC Empty-Handed Again?

Oil futures turned lower on Wednesday after experiencing a significant rally the day before. Official data showing increasing crude supplies in the U.S. continued to weigh on oil prices, despite the fact that some OPEC and non-OPEC members have raised their voice to support an agreement to curb production which is expected to be finalized at the end of this month.

Reuters reported that Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak on Wednesday stated that his country is ready to join OPEC’s deal an agreement to curb production. Novak also added that he saw big chances that the oil producers’ group can agree on the terms of the freeze by November 30th. The Russian Energy Minister is expected to have a bilateral meeting with his Saudi counterpart, Khalid al-Falih, at a gas conference in Doha this week.

According to an Algerian energy source, a number of energy ministers from OPEC countries are likely to meet informally in Doha to try to build consensus over specific quotas for each member after having reached a preliminary decision on snapping oil production in September in Algiers.

In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported that domestic crude supplies rose by 5.3 million barrels in the week ended November 11th. The result exceeded analysts’ expectations which called for 1.5 million-barrel build last week.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 46.80, Take profit at 46.20, Stop loss at 47.20

 

[CSFX.Support]

GBP/AUD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 15:00 16/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 16/11/2016

Buy at 1.66500
Take profit at 1.67500
Stop loss at 1.66000

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 17, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 17, 2016



Asian shares firmed while European stocks declined with Treasury yields on Thursday. The U.S. dollar also weakened as investors were cautiously waiting for report on American inflation data and the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen later on the day.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies, retreated by 0.15% to 100.15 after reaching its highest since April 2003 at 100.570 overnight. Fed President Yellen will be addressing Congress for the first time since Republican Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 08th.

His plans for fiscal stimulus including cutting rates and ramping up government spending are expected to spur inflation in the U.S. and thus quicken the pace of Fed interest-rate hikes. Speculation over a December rate increase has been rising, which triggered a global bonds rout and powered the dollar since the start of last week.

As a result of global bonds selloffs that caused Japanese government bonds yields to surge higher, the Bank of Japan on Thursday fired a warning shot against excessive yield moves by offering to buy an unlimited amount of JGB at fixed rates for the first time since the introduction of a new policy framework. The move reiterated Japanese central bank’s pledge to keep the benchmark yield pinned around zero percent.

Elsewhere, Australia's unemployment rate was reported to have been unchanged at 5.6% in October. As stated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of people employed rose by 9,800, driven by an increase in fulltime jobs. However, economists had expected overall employment to soar by 18,000 positions.



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has been trading in a thin range in the last two days as the pair failed to breach the support at 0.85800. Nonetheless, the Euro is likely to lose ground versus its British counterpart as the short-term MA20 is containing the price. In the event of continual down moves, the pair may find its support at 0.84800.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.85800, Take profit at 0.84800, Stop loss at 0.86300



AUDCAD



Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

AUDCAD has extended its downtrend for the third consecutive trading day. Sellers have been overwhelmingly dominant in the market that forced the pair to remain in the oversold zone. Although ADX is surging, the +DI line has been pointing downwards, suggesting an underlying correction. The support at 38.2% retracement is expected to be the point the prompts the price to reverse higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 0.99860, Take profit at 1.00400, Stop loss at 0.99600





Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF retreated from over 8-month highs near 1.00600. The pair is approaching the milestone at 1.00000 and the Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% level. As can be seen from the Stochastic chart, USDCHF has almost reached the oversold zone. Hence, a pullback is expected.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 1.00000, Take profit at 1.00600, Stop loss at 0.99800



COFFEE


Fig: Coffee H4 Technical Chart

After a correction at the start of this week, coffee price resumed its slide but is trading sideways to lower above the support at 160.60. As can be observed from the ADX chart, there are no clear trend in the market yet, as the ADX has fallen below 20. However, sellers are overwhelming and may send the price lower after this consolidation.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 160.60, Take profit at 157.50, Stop loss at 162.60



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent crude resumed its uptrend after retreating from two-week highs at 47.54 logged yesterday. The level at 47.54 is also near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. With the short-term MA20 that has penetrated the long-term MA50 from below, the commodity price is expected to extend its uptrend, at least to re-attempt the 23.6% resistance.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 46.75, Take profit at 47.50, Stop loss at 46.20



DAX 30



Fig: DAX 30 H4 Technical Chart

Germany DAX 30 index has been on a decline which sent its price action to below the short-term MA20 for the first time since November 08. The crossover suggests a reversal into a downtrend, which has been confirmed by the RSI index that has just moved past the 50 line. The support at 50.0% retracement is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 10620.00, Take profit at 10580.00, Stop loss at 10640.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Cisco Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Cisco’s Executives Optimistic Inspite of Weak Outlook, Time To Buy The Dips?

Shares of Cisco Systems Inc. plummeted more than 4% in Wednesday’s extended session after the network equipment company reported weak results for the last quarter and also issued a gloomy second-quarter earnings forecast.

The San Jose, Calif.-based networking giant said that is fiscal first-quarter earnings dropped to $2.3 billion, or 46 cents a share, from $2.4 billion, or 48 cents a share, a year earlier. During the three-month period through October, Cisco generated $12.4 billion in revenue, which is lower than forecasts of $12.33 billion.

For the second quarter, Cisco projects revenue to decline 2% to 4% compared to the same period last year with adjusted earnings per share of 55 cents to 57 cents. Meanwhile, analysts expect quarterly earnings of 59 cents a share on revenue of $12.14 billion.

However, the company’s Chief Executive Chuck Robbins and his peers were optimistic about the possibility of a repatriation holiday some of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, especially the tax cut plan.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 30.20, Take profit at 31.50, Stop loss at 29.50

 

[CSFX.Support]

FTSE Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

U.K. Shares Tick Up, But Struggling Around Technical Level

U.K. stocks edged higher on Thursday, with retail stocks soaring after government data showed U.K. retail sales easily beat expectations. Mining shares also contributed to the bullish sentiment, spurred by higher metals prices as the U.S. dollar retreated ahead of Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Congress later today.

The Office for National Statistics on Thursday reported that the country’s retail sales grew by 7.4% last month compared with the same period one year ago. On a monthly basis, sales rose by 1.9%, significantly topping economists’ expectations calling for 0.4% month-over-month increase.

U.K. retail sales grew at the fastest annual pace in nearly 15 years in October, driven by cooler temperature last month and stronger-than-usual Halloween sales at supermarkets. British shoppers were not only willing to buy more winter clothing but also snapped up Halloween costumes and treats.

Shares of apparel and home furnishing retailer Next PLC added 1.38%, while those of Marks & Spencer picked up 0.51%. Supermarket chain J Sainsbury PLC gained 0.42%. Mining shares were also trading higher. Anglo American PLC rose 1.46% and BHP Billiton PLC ticked 0.84% higher.

Shares of CRH PLC turned higher on Thursday, advancing 1.81% after the Dublin-based building materials supplier reported positive sales result and confirmed its full-year guidance.

On the down side, Royal Mail PLC led decliners, plummeting nearly 6.0%. Dragged down by shrinking marketing activity after the Brexit vote in June, the postal service posted a decline in its half-year net profit.

Fig: FTSE H4 Technical Chart

FTSE 100 index has been supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 6742.80 since the start of this week. However, the U.K. stocks benchmark has also been under downward pressure from two MAs hanging above the price action. As can be seen from the chart, recent candles showed long lower shadows, which indicate firm support. The price is expected to edge higher, as indicated by the Stochastic chart, where the %K line has crossed over the %D line from below.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 6780.00, Take profit at 6820.00, Stop loss at 6740.00