Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

[CSFX.Support]

NZD/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:00 25/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 25/11/2016

Buy at 0.70350
Take profit at 0.70550
Stop loss at 0.70000

 

[CSFX.Support]

Gold Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

U.S. Dollar Rally Halts In Postholiday Trading But Gold Remains Weak

Gold prices continued to drop on Friday, hitting a fresh 9-month low at $1170.77 per ounce even though the U.S. dollar’s bull run paused today.

The precious metal plummeted about 3.6% for the week as the dollar index notched its highest level in over a decade amid rising speculations that the Federal Reserve will nudge interest rates higher next month. Higher interest rates are typically negative for non-yielding assets such as gold. Additionally, stronger greenback makes gold less affordable for buyers holding other currencies.

The dollar’s rally came to a halt on Friday. However, with economic data remaining positive, financial markets see a 93.5% chance the central bank will raise rates a quarter-point to a range of 0.5% to 0.75% during its next policy meeting in mid-December

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1180.00, take profit at 1170.00, stop loss at 1185.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Remain Key Data, OPEC Meeting Awaited

U.S. Non-farm Payrolls Remain Key Data, OPEC Meeting Awaited

The U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies in a shortened post-holiday trade on Friday as traders took profit after a strong rally that sent the greenback to nearly 14-year highs. The U.S. market was closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and Friday was a half-day session.

The dollar index slid by 0.28% to 101.48 late Friday after having risen around 6% in the last two months due in part to expectations that increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and inflation. Furthermore, the fact that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is a near certainty has also boost the dollar as higher interest rates make the currency more attractive to yield seeking investors.

Past week’s U.S. economic reports all contributed to supporting the case of a rate hike next month. Existing home sales, durable goods, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Richmond Fed index all exceeded economists’ forecast, indicating that the U.S. economy is improving. Next week’s data including consumer confidence, the ISM manufacturing index and nonfarm payrolls are highly expected to help the dollar sustain its bullish run.

The Euro pulled back on Friday after hitting the lowest level since early December 02nd, 2015 at $1.05171. In the week ahead, the focus for the single currency will be on German consumer prices on Tuesday, Eurozone Flash CPI on Wednesday and Manufacturing PMI on Thursday. Before those economic reports, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to testify about the ECB’s outlook on economic and monetary developments and the consequences of Brexit to the Economic Committee in the European Parliament on Monday.

The Canadian dollar is anticipated to fluctuate widely next week as markets will be paying close attention to the outcome of the 171st OPEC meeting starting on November 30th. If OPEC failed to reach an output-cut agreement, oil prices will crash, sending CAD sharply lower. The cartel’s decision may overshadow Canada’s Q3 GDP report due on the same day. However, next Friday’s employment numbers should return as a key driver for the Loonie.

Sterling turned higher against the dollar last week but still remained in a consolidation. U.K. Chancellor Hammond’s first statement on the Budget last Wednesday showed that growth forecasts for the next 2 years were lowered. However, the Chancellor announced a new National Productivity Investment Fund of 23 billion pounds, promising more borrowing and investment in innovation and infrastructure. These new spending plans helped send sterling higher versus most of its peers. U.K. PMI manufacturing and construction numbers are scheduled for release next week.

There are no major New Zealand economic reports on the calendar in the week ahead except for the Financial Stability Report. Australia has retail sales and manufacturing PMI numbers scheduled, but the Aussie’s movement is expected to be driven by Chinese PMIs and commodity prices.

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 28, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 28, 2016



Asian equities rose on Monday as gains in utilities and consumer shares overweighed losses in energy producers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.8 percent, with the sub-gauge of utilities advancing 1.4 percent. The Hang Seng Index edged 0.8 percent higher while a gauge of mainland companies traded in the city soared 1.1 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index ticked up by 0.5 percent.

Metal surged with zinc rallying 4.2 percent, heading for its highest close in nine years in London, as bullish speculative sentiment in China spurred a fresh surge for industrial metals. Lead looks set for its strongest settlement since 2011 while gold climbed.

Crude oil opened the first session of the week with a gap down as prospects for an OPEC production freeze agreement at the group’s formal meeting Wednesday faded after Saudi Arabia on Sunday showed signs of unwillingness to join such deal.

According to the Saudi newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, Khalid Al-Falih, the Saudi oil minister on Sunday stated that “We expect demand to recover in 2017, then prices will stabilize, and this will happen without an intervention from OPEC,”. The kingdom also withdrew from talks originally scheduled for Monday with producers outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Lower oil prices which help reduce inflationary pressure, sapped momentum for a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries. Ten-year Treasuries rose for the first time in three sessions, pushing yields down three basis points to 2.33 percent. The dollar's index has slid 0.5 percent so far on the day to 100.89 after reaching its 13 1/2-year high of 102.05 touched on Thursday.



Technicals

AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD extended its rally to a fifth in the last six trading days. The pair has successfully breached the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.74500 after having crossed over a couple of MAs. The short-term MA20 has penetrated the long-term MA50 from below, consolidating the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.74800, take profit at 0.75300, stop loss at 0.74500



USDCAD



Fig: USDCAD H4 Technical Chart

USDCAD has been trading in a shrinking range which has created higher lows and lower highs. The pair rebounded following a slide from the upper boundary. As can be seen from the chart, two MAs have been supporting the price. RSI has returned to the bullish area, indicating dominating buyers.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.34800, take profit at 1.35200, stop loss at 1.34600



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver’s price action has crossed over the long-term MA50 after breaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level. RSI has entered the bullish territory for the first time since November 10th. The grey metal is expected to extend its rally to re-attempt the resistance at 17.075.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 16.800, take profit at 17.075, stop loss at 16.650



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent resumed its downtrend after scaling back from the lowest level since November 10th at 46.46. The commodity had almost reached the 23.6% level but bulls failed to sustain the bullish momentum. While RSI has neared the oversold zone, ADX is still on a rise. Downward pressure from two MAs is expected to send the price lower.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 46.90, take profit at 46.00, stop loss at 47.30



DAX 30



Fig: DAX 30 Index H4 Technical Chart

Germany’s DAX 30 index has been moving sideways to lower for nearly three weeks. The benchmark has been under downward pressure from a couple of MAs that have restrained the prices from surging higher. RSI keeps swinging back and forth around the 50 line. The indicator is heading downwards, suggesting a stronger bearish momentum. The index may retest the support at 10600.00.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 10670.00, take profit at 10600.00, stop loss at 10700.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

USD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 06:00 28/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 28/11/2016

Buy at 112.100
Take profit at 113.200
Stop loss at 111.500

 

[CSFX.Support]

Natural Gas Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Cooler Weather Fuels Natural Gas Upbeat Moves

U.S. natural gas futures rose to the highest level since October 25 on the back of more “normal weather” forecasts which continue to raise expectations for increased demand.

Natural-gas futures for December delivery has soared to $3.190 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up nearly 4% compared to the last close at $3.069/mmBtu on Friday. The commodity has been on a rise since it rebounded from three-month low at $2.546/mmBtu logged on November 11. The rally has sent the price higher by more than 25%, recording the best two-week run since the end of 2015.

Weather forecasts on Friday broadly predicted some below-average temperatures settling in, though not temperatures as cold as previous forecasts. However, the longer-term trend has been a return toward normal as the historic warmth that started the autumn has seemingly come to an end.

About half of all U.S. households use gas for cooling and heating. Therefore, weather has been the most-common driver for demand and prices. The lower the temperature drops in the winter, the higher the demand for natural gas for heat. Autumn is usually the time when traders position themselves for the winter-heating season, and many investors have been betting that a decline in drilling activity and record gas consumption from power plants would scale back a glut that has plagued the market.

Fig: Natural gas D1 technical chart

Natural gas is trading comfortably above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 3.086. Before breaking above one of major Fib. handles, the price action had penetrated the long-term DMA50 from below, consolidating the uptrend. With RSI poiting upwards and a divergence between +DI and -DI lines, natural gas prices are expected to test the resistance at 3.280.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.190, take profit at 3.280, stop loss at 3.100

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 29, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on November 29, 2016



European shares and developed Asian stocks declined on Tuesday as oil dropped on disagreement that remains among OPEC members over which producers should cut by how much. While Asia Pacific Index shed 0.1%, Japan’s Topix Index, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index were all little changed.

WTI crude prices pulled back below $47 per barrel after Iraq and Iran raised objections with OPEC officials over how to distribute output reductions, referring the issue to ministers for further consideration. The cartel has also failed to work out a plan for non-OPEC oil giant Russia to participate in its output-cut deal.

A rally in metals ran out of steam with copper slumping for the first time in seven days. Copper futures lost 1.6 percent on the London Metal Exchange, nickel plunged 2.2 percent while zinc edged 1.5 percent lower. Gold also retreated on Tuesday following last session’s 0.9 percent advance.

In China, the government was reported to step up efforts to contain runaway property prices. According to market sources, the People Bank of China has clamped down further on mortgage lending in areas deemed overheated by asking lenders in those cities to suspend distributing new home loans.



Technicals

EURUSD



Fig: EURUSD H4 Technical Chart

EURUSD reversed lower from the highest level since November 17, 2016 at 1.06852 as bulls failed to support the price to surge higher above the long-term MA50. The pair has fallen back below the dynamic resistance and looks set to retest the lowest level since last early-December.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.05800, Take profit at 1.05200, Stop loss at 1.06100



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD is about to reattempt the resistance at 0.71000. The pair failed to break above this level yesterday. However, with a soaring RSI index and a divergence between the +DI and –DI lines of ADX chart, a breakout is expected. Additionally, the upside has been supported by the fact that the short-term MA20 has penetrated the long-term MA50 from below.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.71000, Take profit at 0.71400, Stop loss at 0.70800



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been moving indecisively under the 1200.00 threshold for nearly a week. The precious metal price is struggling around the short-term 20-period MA20 and remains under downward pressure from the long-term MA50. As RSI index is pointing downward under the 50 line, bearish momentum may send gold price lower.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1185.00, Take profit at 1173.00, Stop loss at 1190.00



WTI


Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

U.S. crude prices pulled back from the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 47.44. The prices were contained by both the Fibonacci handle and a couple of MAs. The short-term MA20 is much likely to cross over the long-term MA50, consolidating a reversal into a downtrend. %K line is running ahead of the %D line, supporting further down moves.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 46.20, Take profit at 45.20, Stop loss at 46.70

 

[CSFX.Support]

NZD/JPY signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:15 29/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 29/11/2016

Buy at 79.460
Take profit at 80.400
Stop loss at 79.000

 

[CSFX.Support]

Tiffany & Co. trade idea by Capital Street FX

Tiffany & Co. Q3 Results Surprisingly Top Forecasts

Shares of Tiffany & Co. surged nearly 5% in premarket trade on Tuesday, after the high-end jewelry seller posted fiscal third-quarter results that surged above expectations. The jewelry retailer reported earnings the three-month period ending October 31 increased to $95.1 million, or 76 cents a share, from $91.0 million, or 70 cents a share, in the same period a year ago. The reading beats projections calling for a decline to 67 cents.

The company’s revenue was announced to advance to $949.3 million from $938.2 million, beating estimates for a decline to $923.8 million. Although same-store sales fell 2% last quarter, the drop was less than feared. While net sales in Europe slid below expectation, those in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and especially Japan topped market forecasts.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 81.75, take profit at 83.00, stop loss at 81.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

SP500 Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Strong Economic Data Overwhelm Oil Slide, Sending SP500 Higher

U.S. shares shrugged off early losses to turn higher on Tuesday, hovering near all-time record high logged last Friday. The benchmark SP500 index edged 0.3% higher, boosted by a slew of better-than-expected economic reports, which overshadowed a drop in crude prices.

The Conference Board on Tuesday reported the U.S. consumer confidence soared to prerecession levels in November. The index advanced to the highest since July 2007 at 107.1, comfortably beating analysts’ forecasts for an increase to 102 in November.

The U.S. economy was reported to grow at the fastest pace in over two years in the third quarter. Besides surging exports, the rally was also powered by consumers and government that stepped up their spending. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2% annual rate – the strongest pace since the second quarter of 2014.

At the time of trading, eight of the 11 main sectors were trading higher, led by real estates and health care shares. Energy sector was down 1.35% as oil futures ticked lower ahead of a key meeting of major crude producers.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2208.00, Stop loss at 2205.00, take profit at 2213.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 30, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 30, 2016



The U.S. dollar headed for its sharpest one-month advance since May as Treasuries fell, sending yields higher that spurred gains in the greenback. The U.S. dollar, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major peers, climbed 0.17 percent to 101.16 in the second half of Asian trading session.

Industrial metals extended their declines to a second-straight session after the London Metal Exchange Index reached the highest since May 2015 on Monday. While copper hit one-week low at $2.5500/lb, tin and nickel each slumped at least 0.7 percent. The London Metal Exchange Index may fall further to day after tumbling 3.4 percent on Tuesday, its biggest one-day retreat in more than a year.

Crude oil futures reversed higher in nervous trading on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC meeting later in the day. International Brent crude hit an intra-day high at $47.43 per barrel, up 2.4% from its last close. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 2.1% to $46.14 per barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is trying to thrash out an output cut deal and is expected to deliver such an agreement later today.

The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell 720,000 barrels last week, following a draw of 1.28 million barrels the previous week. The reading was 120,000 barrels more than expected.

Elsewhere, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan's industrial output expanded for a third straight month in October. Supported by exports of electronics and other products to China, Japanese output rose 0.1% month-on-month following a rise of 0.6% in September.



Technicals

AUDNZD



Fig: AUDNZD H4 Technical Chart

AUDNZD has been nose-diving from the resistance at 1.05900. The pair has broken the 23.6% retracement and is expected to test over one-week low at 104.150. However, as can be observed from two indicator windows, the market has entered the oversold zone, implying an upcoming correction.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 104.150, Take profit at 1.04800, Stop loss at 1.03800



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD pulled back after a correction from the start of this week. The pair had rebounded from the lowest level since late-April at 1.41650 and sent the market to the overbought zone. As can be seen from the Stochastic chart, the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, suggesting a reversal into a down trend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.42700, Take profit at 1.42000, Stop loss at 1.43000



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

Crude price scaled back from the 23.6% Fibonacci level, looking set to complete the double bottom pattern as the price is likely to surge past the neck level at 50.0% retracement. In the event of continual upbeat moves, the commodity prices may attempt the next Fib. level at 61.8%.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 47.50, Take profit at 48.50, Stop loss at 47.00



CAC40



Fig: CAC40 Index H4 Technical Chart

CAC40 index is struggling under the 61.8% retracement after failed to breach this level. However, bullish momentum supported by two MAs is expected to sustain the price’s rally. RSI is pointing upwards, consolidating further advance. The French benchmark may test the resistance at 4600.00 threshold.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4570.00, Take profit at 4600.00, Stop loss at 4560.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

RBS Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Royal Bank of Scotland Plunges As The Bank Fails BOE Stress Test

Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland Group plummet nearly 5% on Wednesday as state-backed lender failed this year’s stress test of seven British lenders. According to the Bank of England, RBS must come up with a revised plan to raise capital by around £2 billion ($2.49 billion).

The bank rushed out a statement following the announcement, stating that it would take a range of actions, including selling off bad loans and cutting costs to make up the capital shortfall and meet regulatory requirements.

The annual health checks also revealed capital inadequacies at two other banks, namely Barclays PLC and Standard Chartered PLC, but neither bank needs to change its capital plans as they have already undertaken capital strengthening measures.

The result underlines RBS’s problems including a rising legal bill for misconduct ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, not to mention difficulties selling off assets such as its Williams & Glyn banking business.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 188.70, Take profit at 187.00, Stop loss at 189.50

 

[CSFX.Support]

CAD/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:00 30/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 30/11/2016

Buy at 0.75500
Take profit at 0.75800
Stop loss at 0.75350

 

[CSFX.Support]

Brent Crude Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

OPEC To Trim Output For The First Time In 8 Years, Brent Soars

International Brent crude jumped more than 8% on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to curb oil output for the first time since 2008.

Brent crude futures for January delivery soared to one-month highs at $50.45 per barrel, on course for their biggest one-day move in nine months. According to an OPEC source, the 14-nation cartel has reached an output limiting deal in order to splash production by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million a day.

The move aims at draining a crude glut that’s pushed down prices for two years, which will help oil-producing countries revive their tattered finances.

It’s not yet known how deep key OPEC member Saudi Arabia will cut but the kingdom had already stated that it had been prepared to accept “a big hit” on its own production. The largest oil producer of the OPEC also agreed to allow its rival Iran to freeze output at pre-sanctions levels.

The agreement is also reported to call for a reduction of about 600,000 barrels a day by non-OPEC countries

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday said domestic crude supplies fell by 884,000 barrels in the week ending November 25. The figure contrasted with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 636,000 barrels.

Fig: BRENT D1 Technical Chart

Brent crude price has not only broken above the 23.6% retracemnet but also crossed over both short-term and long-term MAs, suggting a strong bullish momentum. The advance has sent the oil market into a bullish territory. As RSI keeps surging, Brent crude is expected to test the resistance at 51.00.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 50.00, Stop loss at 51.00, take profit at 49.50

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on December 1, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on December 1, 2016



Crude prices extended their gains on Thursday after soaring strongly on Wednesday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to its first output cut since 2008. Energy shares were given a fresh boost, fueling global benchmark indexes to sweep higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.7 percent with a sub-gauge of energy stocks jumping 4.4 percent. Japan’s Topix index reached highest level since January, rallying 0.9 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was up 0.6 percent.

OPEC finally took action to clear a glut that has reigned in the market for two years. West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 1% to trade as high as $50.22 after surging 9.3 percent last session, the biggest one-day gain since Feb. 12. The commodity finished November up 5.5 percent. The OPEC-led deal was broader than expected, given that the output-cut agreement extended beyond the bloc with Russia also joining output reductions for the first time in 15 years.

Meanwhile, after less than a year rejoining the OPEC, Indonesia has suspended its membership of the cartel. The net oil importer said it could not agree to the group's production cuts level which was offered at 37,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 5 percent of Indonesia’s output.

Elsewhere, Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai on Thursday cleared doubts that the central banks’ bond-buying program was nearing a limit, saying the BOJ would continue to buy massive amounts of government bonds even under a new policy framework targeting interest rates. Speaking in a conference in the city of Otsu, western Japan, Sakurai also underlined supports and efforts of Japanese government and companies to help BOJ beat subdued inflation and growth in Japan by raising wages and promoting innovation.



Technicals

USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has been struggling around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement since yesterday. This is the highest level since early March. The pair reached the overbought market on Wednesday and had to retreat as investors took profit. However, with a market in favor of buyers, USDJPY may break above this level to test the resistance at 116.000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 114.500, Take profit at 116.000, Stop loss at 113.800



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

AUDUSD has given up its bullish strength to reverse lower after hitting the short-term MA20. The pair extended its down moves following a correction from one-week lows at 0.73734. As RSI is pointing to the oversold zone and two MAs are exerting downwards pressure on the price, AUDUSD may fall to as low as 50.0% level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.73800, Take profit at 0.73300, Stop loss at 0.74100



SILVER



Fig: SILEVR H4 Technical Chart

SILVER has pulled back from 61.8% retracement. Under pressure from two MAs and the Fibonacci level, the metal is anticipated to extend its downside. RSI index has scaled back from the 50 line, suggesting an overwhelmingly dominant bearish force.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 16.300, Take profit at 16.000, Stop loss at 16.450



BRENT



Fig: BRENT H4 Technical Chart

Brent has been trading sideways under a solid resistance at 52.70. The commodity which soared vigorously from the 23.6% retracement has neared the overblown market. Therefore, a consolidation at this level is understandable. The short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from below, supporting further advances.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 52.70, Take profit at 53.80, Stop loss at 52.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/CAD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:30 01/12/2016
Till GMT 21:00 01/12/2016

Sell at 0.99000
Take profit at 0.98600
Stop loss at 0.99300

 

[CSFX.Support]

Toronto-Dominion Bank Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Toronto-Dominion Bank Posts Upbeat Earnings, Fueled by U.S. Business

Toronto-Dominion Bank reported its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, which matched market expectations thanks to strong growth at the lender’s U.S. retail business.

The Canada’s second-biggest banking and financial services corporation announced earnings of $1.22 per share in the fiscal fourth quarter ending October 31st. The result was up from $1.14 in the same period last year and in line with average forecast by analysts.

TD’s net income, excluding one-off items, advanced to $2.35 billion, up from $2.18 billion the year before. As a result, net income stripping out non-recurring components rose to $9.29 billion for the full fiscal year. The lender had only generated $8.75 billion the year before.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 47.35, Stop loss at 48.00, Take profit at 47.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Natural Gas Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Falling U.S. Stockpiles Magnifies Cooler Weather Effects on Natural Gas

U.S. natural gas continued to edge higher on Thursday, bolstered by new federal data that showed the additional amount of gas in storage fell last week amidst cooler forecasts which helped raise expectations for demand.

Natural-gas futures for January delivery jumped more than 3.5% to $3.501 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas has been on a rise, rallying around 25% in the last two weeks, approaching the 10-month highs at $3.544/mmBtu logged on October 18th.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday reported that natural gas stockpiles dropped by 50 billion cubic feet last week. The draw sent total natural-gas stocks now stand at .995 trillion cubic feet, 0.6% above levels from last year and 6.25% above the five year average.

Meanwhile, latest forecasts show below-average temperatures spreading across most of the country starting next week. Lower temperatures will increase natural gas demand for heating, helping to dispel fears that a glut of supply will continue to weigh on prices.

Fig: Natural Gas D1 Technical Chart

Natural gas is heading for the 0.0% Fibonacci level after rebounding from the 50.0% retracement. Although the ADX index is soaring with a wide gap between the +DI and -DI lines, RSI has neared the overbought zone. Given the strong resistance at 0.0% level, that handle can be the near-term target.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 3.500, Take profit at 3.540, Stop loss at 3.480

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on December 02, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on December 02, 2016



The U.S. dollar eased against most of its peers on Friday as investors eagerly waiting for a monthly U.S. jobs report that could be the main factor driving the currency in coming days. The dollar index, which tracks the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six major currencies, poised to close the week lower. The index pared some losses in the European morning session but has dropped 0.5% for the week.

On the contrary, the euro firmed around $1.06700 having gained 0.9 percent so far this week. The Italian referendum on Sunday remains the focus for the common currency. The referendum could reject Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's constitutional reforms and worsen Italy's fragile banking system, potentially sapping investor confidence in the currency union.

Crude prices turned lower in Asian trading hours before regaining some bullish momentum in European trade. Optimism over this week's OPEC-Russia accord on cutting output has fueled Brent’s rally to reach 16-month high on Thursday. However, traders are now focusing their attention on implementation of the deal when OPEC holds talks with non-OPEC producers on Dec. 9.

Elsewhere, Australian retail sales were reported to advance for the third consecutive month in October. The national statistics bureau on Friday announced that retail sales rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% to $25.616 billion, following a gain of 0.6% in September. The upbeat figure was boosted by food retailing, household goods and cafes and restaurants, which offset declines at department stores and clothing retailers. Retail sales account for more than half of Australia’s gross domestic product (GDP).



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP reversed lower as the bullish force failed to beat pressure from two MAs hanging above the price action. RSI has also pulled back from the central line which indicates a strong bearish momentum. Down moves may bring the pair to as low as 38.2% level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.84400, Take profit at 0.83950, Stop loss at 0.83750



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

EURCAD has been struggling around the lowest level since late April at 1.41780. The pair has been trading sideways to lower with two MAs lingering above the price action. RSI pointing to the oversold zone supports further declines.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.41600, Take profit at 1.40600, Stop loss at 1.42100



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 Index H4 Technical Chart

NASDAQ 100 index continued to slump following a breakout from the slopping downward support that connects lower highs. The short-term MA20 is likely to cross over the long-term MA50 from above, consolidating the downtrend. However, as can be seen in two indicator windows, both RSI and Stochastic index have entered the oversold zone. Therefore, the down move seems limited.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4709.00, Take profit at 4673.50, Stop loss at 4730.00



CAC40



Fig: CAC 40 Index H4 Technical Chart

CAC40 index is trading round the support at 4500.00 and looks set to break below this level. Different from failed attempts in mid-November when the index was supported by the short-term MA20, the prices are under downward pressure from two MAs at the moment. Should the CAC40 breach the support level, it can attempt the next support at 50.0% retracement.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4490.00, Take profit at 4450.00, Stop loss at 4510.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

FTSE Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

FSTE 100 Heads To One-Month Low, Weighed by Metal and Oil Producers

U.K. shares looked set to finish the week with every single session closing lower. The FTSE 100 index continued to slump on Friday, led by declines in commodity shares and stocks of oil producers.

The benchmark was heading toward its lowest settlement since mid-September with basic material, tech and energy shares experiencing the worst performances.

Oil producer BP PLC dropped 1.23% and Royal Dutch Shell PLC lost 1.86% on the back of weakening oil prices. Meanwhile, shares of diversified metals producers BHP Billiton PLC BLT and Rio Tinto PLC plunged by 3.88% and 2.66%, respectively.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 6690.00, Take profit at 6650.00, Stop loss at 6720.00