Daily Market Analysis by CapitalStreetFX

[CSFX.Support]

EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

EUR/CHF signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 17:10 28/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 28/10/2016

Buy at 1.08600
Take profit at 1.08700
Stop loss at 1.08500

 

[CSFX.Support]

CAC40 Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Drug Maker Sanofi Boosts CAC 40 Higher After Early Losses

French shares swung to positive territory after easing losses in early trade on Friday. France’s CAC 40 index rose 0.22% so far on the day following the release of encouraging Eurozone economic confidence data.

Among a batch of economic releases on Friday, survey data from the European Commission showed that a gauge of Eurozone economic confidence hit a 10-month high at 106.3 in October, which is up from 104.9 in the prior month. However, French consumer spending unexpectedly shed 0.2% in September following a 0.8% increase in August, data from statistical office INSEE revealed.

Also stated by the INSEE, the annual consumer price inflation remained stable at 0.4 percent in the current month, while producer prices added 0.1% on a monthly basis in September, after remaining flat in the previous month.

On the CAC 40 index, declining issues outnumbered advancing issues by 22 to 18. Nonetheless, the index was trading in the green, led by the jump of drug maker Sanofi. Shares of the pharmaceutical company rallied more than 7.0% it raised its profit forecast for the year and announced its plan to complete a €3.5 billion ($3.82 billion) share buyback by the end of 2017.

Compagnie de Saint Gobain SA’s equities also climbed 3% after the building materials firm posted good organic growth in the first five nine months of the year.

On the other side, Nokia Corp topped the list of losers, heading down more than 4%. The technology company reported a quarterly net loss for the third time in a row on Thursday. The decline in the bottom line was resulted from sluggish mobile-network sales and charges related to the company’s acquisition of French rival Alcatel-Lucent SA.

Adding to Nokia’s woes is the news that its Chief Financial Officer Timo Ihamuotila has resigned to join technology conglomerate ABB Ltd. in Switzerland. His position will be filled by Kristian Pullola.

Fig: CAC 40 D1 technical chart

CAC 40 index has been on a rise and is likely to approach the six-month highs at 4579.90 logged on October 24th. The index is being suported by two MAs which are moving under the price action. With the confirmation from the RSI index that is heading upwards to the overbought zone, the index is expected the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4545.00 , take profit at 4557.00, stop loss at 4540.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Weekly outlook by Capital Street FX

Spotlight on a Quartet of Central Bank Meetings, U.S NFP to Wrap up An Eventful Week

The U.S dollar weakened against most of its peers on Friday after reigning supreme for most of last week. The greenback lost its steam as investors took profits following the release of GDP data, but still closed the week higher versus a the majors amid rising speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December.

In spite of mixed data published throughout the week, Friday’s report on the U.S gross domestic product pointed to a positive trent in US economic growth.US Consumer Sentiment dropped as per reports by the Conference Board on Tuesday and by University of Michigan on Friday. However, flash data on manufacturing and service sectors for October signaled a strong start for the fourth quarter with both indexes reaching the highest levels in 11 months. U.S. economic growth was also reported to accelerate at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, not to mention new home sales rising and the trade deficit narrowing.

No matter how encouraging the economic data were last week, the Fed is not expected to tighten rates at the policy meeting next week, which is being held just days before the presidential election. Therefore, reports such as ISM manufacturing due on Tuesday, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and ISM non-manufacturing may draw more attention.

In September, there were only 156,000 jobs added to the US economy, while the unemployment rate inched up to 5% from 4.9% in August. Last month’s readings was not only lower than expectations but also indicated a trend towards decreasing numbers over the last four months. For October, economists expect a 175,000 jobs gain and the jobless rate declining to 4.9%.

The British Pound hit a two-week low at $1.20812 last week ahead of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s testimony before the House of Lords in London. GBPUSD recovered earlier losses later on as Carney pointed out that the recent moves in sterling seemed to be based on “the market’s perception of what the potential relationship will be between the United Kingdom and Europe,”. “It’s a bit early to be making that judgment.” he said.

The BOE Governor also reassured investors that the Brexit negotiation process will be pursued orderly and the government will attempt to “get the best deal possible”.

The most important data for the Cable reported last week was the third-quarter GDP, which reflected the economy’s performance in the period following the country’s Brexit vote. The Office for National Statistics stated that U.K. gross domestic product expanded 0.5% in the July-September period, which was lower than the unusually strong growth of 0.7% recorded in the second quarter, but it comfortably outpaced forecasts calling for an expansion of 0.3%.

Next week, the latest UK PMIs and Quarterly Inflation Report will be released before the BOE announces its rate decision on Thursday. Analyst expectations point to rates remaining unchanged at the meeting. However, remarks by BOE policymakers will be closely watched to determine whether there is a possibility of another rate cut in the coming months.

Unlike the Cable with a busy week ahead, the Euro is not likely to be pushed around by Eurozone-related data. The single currency fell to the lowest since early-March at $1.08502 last Tuesday and seems to have bottomed out at the level

Monday’s third-quarter Eurozone GDP report and October CPI will start a quiet week for the Euro. Manufacturing and service PMIs from Eurozone countries and the region as a whole will be reported on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. The upside for EURUSD seems limited as dollar bulls may remain in control around the FOMC meeting.

Moving on to Australia, the Australian dollar jumped more than 0.6% to as high as 0.77083 – the highest in a week, after inflation was reported higher than expected. Australia’s consumer prices accelerated at the pace of 0.7% last quarter, exceeding forecasts of a 0.5% increase, and paring bets the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates this year.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to deliver its interest rate decision on Tuesday, November 1st. It is widely expected to leave rates unchanged and it may announce a state of neutrality. This announcement will be followed by a busy Friday for the Aussie with RBA Monetary Policy Statement and September’s Retail Sales on the calendar.

The New Zealand dollar, which closed the week almost unchanged compared to the greenback, is also going to welcome key reports next week including Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. The former is expected to come in at 0.6%, the latter, unchanged at 5.1%. The Kiwi is also likely to respond to the Fed’s interest rate decision.

Of the 3 commodity currencies, Canadian dollar was the weakest in the past week. Oil prices hitting three-week lows and economic data that surprised to the downside together weighed on the currency.

Crude oil witnessed a weak recovery after the Energy Information Administration stated that domestic crude supplies unexpectedly fell last week. U.S. crude stockpiles were reported to have fallen by 553,000 barrels last week, a result contrary to analyst forecasts and previous reports from the API that had reported an increase in stocks.

However, burdens on the crude price remained heavy as two-day talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Vienna ended with nothing new but a promise that the world’s largest oil producers would keep on talking. Discussions will continue in late November, just days before the OPEC is supposed to finalize the accord that had previously been proposed in September.

The Loonie pared earlier losses on late Monday as Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled a deferral in cutting rates, even after the country’s disappointing economic data lately. Given the uneven growth in different parts of Canada, Poloz reiterated the central bank considered cutting interest rates but said further stimulus is complicated. Any decision to cut interest rates further will not be unleashed in the next 18 months, the BOC Governor said.

The Bank of Japan also has a monetary policy meeting scheduled next week but like the other three central banks, the BOJ is expected to make little or no changes to its current monetary policy framework.

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on October 31, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on October 31, 2016



Asian shares fluctuated on Monday, with energy sector tracking oil’s slide. Energy stocks fell on the last trading day of October as crude benchmarks slipped to one-month lows after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries left Vienna empty-handed. OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers ended two days of talks without making any progress on setting individual quotas, as focus was on Iran and Iraq – two OPEC members that preferred raising output to snapping production.

Gold was little unchanged after breaking the resistance at $1275.00 per ounce on Friday. Markets’ confidence was rattled following a survey pointed to cooling support for Democrat Hillary Clinton since the reopening of an FBI probe into her use of private e-mail while secretary of state. Considered as a good gauge of how markets assess Clinton’s possibility to win the election on November 11, the Mexican peso held a two-week low versus the dollar.

In Japan, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Monday reported that Japanese industrial output was unchanged in September from the previous month. The reading was far lower than the median estimate of a 0.9% increase and an expansion at the pace of 1.3% in August. According to the report, the stall in Japan’s industrial output was due to declines in semiconductor and personal computer production that offset gains in autos and construction equipment.

In a separate data release, Japanese retail sales were also unchanged compared to the month before but fell more than expected in September from a year ago, indicating that private consumption remains a drag on growth. The Bank of Japan has started a two-day meeting on Monday during which it will review its inflation outlook and monetary policy. Today’s data may prompt the BOJ to push back the timing of its price target again.



Technicals

AUDCAD



Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

The Australian dollar resumed its rally against the Loonie after the pair fell from two-and-a-half year highs at 1.02846 recorded last Wednesday. A pullback came in as the price action hit the long-term MA50 and failed to break below this dynamic support. As can be observed from the RSI chart, the index has surged above 50, confirming the uptrend. Meanwhile, the +DI line has crossed over the –DI line, further consolidates upcoming advances.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.02050, Take profit at 1.02350, Stop loss at 1.01850



USDJPY



Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPT failed to get back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement as the pair had faced a strong support that is the MA20. As indicated by the RSI that is floating above 50 line, the market remains in favor of the bull. Hence, USDJPY may re-attempt the three-month highs at 105.500.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 104.900, Take profit at 105.500, Stop loss at 104.500



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie returned back above the 23.6% retracement following a rebound from the solid support at 0.75600. Long lower shadows of recent candles indicate a strong bullish force that has consistently pushed the price higher. Although the price action remains under a couple of MAs, the parabolic sar band has changed its direction to moving below the price action, signaling a further up moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.76150, Take profit at 0.76500, Stop loss at 0.75880



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has breached the resistance at 1275.00 with supports from long-term MA50 placed below the price action. The precious metal has turned its old resistance into a new support, against which it crawled back last Friday. As RSI remain in the bullish zone and is pointing upwards, gold may soar higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1278.00, Take profit at 1284.00, Stop loss at 1274.00



WTI



Fig: WTI H4 Technical Chart

WTI pulled back from the support at 48.30 following a gap down on the market open. From the RSI chart, the rebound can be considered as a correction as the market has reached the oversold zone. With a soaring ADX and downward pressure exerted from two MAs hanging above the price action, the commodity is expected to test the support at 47.50.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 48.30, Take profit at 47.50, Stop loss at 48.80.



DOW JONES



Fig: DOW JONES H4 Technical Chart

U.S Dow Jones 30 index has remained in the range between the support at 18055.00 and the resistance at 18255.00 since Oct. 13. While the RSI has been swinging back and forth around the 50 line, the ADX has dipped to as low as 15.90, which indicates an unclear trend on the market.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 18200.00, Take profit at 18090.00, Stop loss at 18265.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 11:15 28/10/2016
Till GMT 21:00 31/10/2016

Sell at 1.06300
Take profit at 1.05900
Stop loss at 1,06500

 

[CSFX.Support]

Sugar Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

China Imports Less, Brazil Exports More – Sugar Tumbles

Sugar prices plunged for the fifth consecutive days on Monday as governments in China and Egypt are selling sugar out of their stocks to support domestic supply. Meanwhile, a strengthening Brazilian real has been encouraging Brazilian sugar producers to increase exports.

Due to domestically output declines in sugar plantations, which has happened to most sugar producing nations owing to drought brought by the El Nino weather pattern earlier this year, China had to gear up importing sugar from its neighboring countries such as Myanmar and Thailand. However, in the past few months, Chinese authorities have tightened controls over imports of agricultural products from Myanmar including sugar in order to fight with illegal cross-border trade.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Beijing bureau recently trimmed its forecast for Chinese sugar imports in 2016-17 to 6 million tons, which is 1.9 million below the initial estimate.

To solve its own sugar supply issue, Chinese government has sold sugar from the state reserves. According to market sources, China’s fourth-quarter imports of raw sugar is expected to be under 350,000 metric tons, compared with 700,000 tons during the same quarter in 2015

Similarly, Egyptian authorities are pumping large amounts of sugar, both subsidized and free, into the market in a bid to control prices. Egypt has been facing a sugar scarcity due to an acute dollar shortage, which has cut imports and left the market short.

On Sunday, Egypt’s Supply Ministry raised its provision of sugar from 4,000 tons to 9,000 tons per day to secure the essential commodity, and said that the crisis is almost over. Egyptian authorities have so far seized 9,000 tons of sugar in raids on factories and warehouses, and forced temporary shutdowns on PepsiCo and Edita’s facilities. The sugar will be resold to the public at subsidized prices.

Adding to sugar’s woes, a decline in the value of the real versus the US dollar also contributed to selling. The Brazilian real has pulled back against the dollar since last Thursday. A weaker local currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more valuable. Therefore, Brazilian exporters have been increasing sales, which directly increases global supplies and pressures prices.

Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Sugar has broken out of the trading range, within which the commodity had been locked for more than a month. Sugar breached below the handle of 22.35 and is facing a dynamic support which is the long-term DMA50. The down side is being supported with RSI pointing downwards and wide gap between the +DI and –DI lines in the ADX chart.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 22.00, Take profit at 21.20, Stop loss at 22.40

 

[CSFX.Support]

SP500 Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

SP500 Inches Higher Following Economic Data – Long Position Suggested

U.S. SP500 index traded higher on Monday as better-than-expected inflation and consumer spending data outweighed bearish sentiment clouding on energy stocks.

According to the U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis, inflation as measured by the PCE index rose 0.2% in September. Meanwhile, a separate report also by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Americans increased spending in September by the fastest amount in three months.

The S&P 500 added 0.23%, with eight of the 11 main sectors trading higher. Utilities and Real Estate led the gains while crude oil prices which tumbled on Monday put pressure on energy companies.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2130.00, Take profit at 2135.00, Stop loss at 2125.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 1, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 01, 2016

Asian equities reversed higher on Tuesday after both official and private purchasing managers’ indexes for China were reported to rally to two-year highs and top markets’ estimates. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted at 51.2 in October, following the previous month’s reading of 50.4 and remaining above the 50-point mark for three months in a row.

Confirming government data that indicated Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI also rose to 51.2, beating analysts' forecasts of 50.2.

Thanks to a government infrastructure spending spree and a housing boom, the world’s second biggest economy is showing signs of stabilization with output and overall new orders growing remarkably. However, China’s new export orders contracted marginally in September, suggesting that the upbeat readings for last month largely came from improvement in domestic demand.

The Kiwi and the Aussie jumped following Chinese data as China is their biggest export market. The Australia dollar also received supports from its central bank which left the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 1.5 percent after Tuesday’s review. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe held off on expanding stimulus, citing escalating property prices, bouncing commodity prices and lower unemployment as reasons to tolerate soft consumer prices growth.

The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy stance unchanged too, and pushed back the projected timing for reaching its 2 percent inflation goal as expected.

Crude prices bounced back on Tuesday as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) had approved a document on Monday outlining its long-term strategy. According to OPEC sources, the board of governors agreed that they should return to their role of managing the market and defending prices - which has been abandoned since 2014. OPEC officials including Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo remain optimistic that details of the output cut deal will be ironed out when oil ministers meet in late-November.



Technicals

GBPJPY



Fig: GBPJPY H4 Technical Chart

GBPJPY are still trading within the range between 126.100 and 128.400. However, the pair has approached the upper boundary and is struggling below this level which forced the pair to reverse lower a few times in the past. The British Pound has been supported by two MAs placed below the price action. If a breakout is made, the pair is expected to find its resistance at the handle of 129.600.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 128.500, Take profit at 129.600, Stop loss at 127.900



AUDCAD



Fig: AUDCAD H4 Technical Chart

AUDCAD has soared strongly from its three-day lows at 1.01230 and is marching to the multi-year highs at 1.02846 logged last Wednesday. The pair is much likely to reach this level with RSI is at high level while ADX has also surged to 27.76. However, a sharp rally may cause bulls to get exhausted, not to mention the market has neared the overbought zone. A pullback is expected at the 1.02846 level.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 1.02845, Take profit at 1.02350, Stop loss at 1.03000.



AUDUSD



Fig: AUDUSD H4 Technical Chart

The Aussie has rallied steeply from the 23.6% retracement at 0.75963 and has broken through the resistance at 0.76500. Although the market has penetrated the overbought zone, as indicated by the RSI, ADX chart showed no sign of the uptrend that is about to get weak. AUDUSD is expected to test the highest since October 26th at 0.77000.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 0.76650, Take profit at 0.77000, Stop loss at 0.76350



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver has approached the resistance at 17.960 after steadily up moves from the support at 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 17.418. Coupled with two MAs that are moving below the price action, the RSI is heading upwards to the overbought territory, consolidating the uptrend. The resistance at 38.2% level is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18.000, Take profit at 18.280, Stop loss at 17.800



Sugar



Fig: Sugar H4 Technical Chart

Although the market has entered the oversold zone, silver remains in its downtrend which started one week ago. The grey metal has retreated consistently and may hit the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement if the price keeps falling. As can be observed from indicator charts, while RSI has fallen to as low as 20.01, ADX has reached the high level at 66.42.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 21.55, Take profit at 21.15, Stop loss at 21.75



CAC40



Fig: CAC40 H4 Technical Chart

France’s CAC40 futures opened with a wide gap up and brought the price action above two MAs. The index breached the resistance at 4528.00 and is attempting the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 4579.48. As can be seen from the stochastic chart, the %K line is far ahead of the %D line, suggesting strong uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4335.00, Take profit at 4555.00, Stop loss at 4528.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

EUR/NZD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 08:15 1/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 1/11/2016

Buy at 1.53300
Take profit at 1.53500
Stop loss at 1.53100

 

[CSFX.Support]

Pfizer Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Pfizer’s Profit Misses Projections, 2016 EPS Outlooks Cut

Shares of Pfizer Inc were down in premarket trading, as the largest U.S. drugmaker surprised investors by announcing that it is ending development of a cholesterol-lowering treatment, which had been expected to be a blockbuster. The pharmaceutical corporation also reported third-quarter earnings that missed analysts’ forecasts.

Pfizer earned 61 cents per share in three months to September, falling short of average analyst estimate by 1 cent. The New York-based drugmaker shaved 4 cents off its 2016 earnings forecast as a result of the discontinuation of its cholesterol treatment program.

The company lowered the upper end of its 2016 adjusted earnings forecast by 5 cents to $2.43 from $2.48 per share, while reaffirming the lower end at $2.38. Pfizer also expects revenue in the range from $52 billion to $53 billion, bumping up the low end of the revenue forecast by $1 billion.

Trade suggestion

Sell Limit at 31.50, Take profit at 31.00, Stop loss at 32.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

USD/JPY Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Concerns Over Fed Meeting and Presidential Election Drag on USDJPY

Japanese Yen reclaimed lost ground against the U.S dollar, sending the pair USDJPY to the lowest since last Wednesday at 104.225. The USD wobbled notably amid news that presidential polls have tightened significantly in recent days and ahead of a series of economic data and important events coming in the next two weeks.

The Yen weakened slightly after the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged while pushing back the timing for hitting its inflation target again on Tuesday. The BOJ Governor Haruhiko and his colleagues maintained targets for controlling short-term and long-term rates as well as asset-purchase programs, but shifted the projected timing for reaching its inflation target of 2 percent to “around fiscal 2018”.

The central bank stated that it would continue buying Japanese government bonds at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen ($764 billion), and made no changes to its previous plans for purchases of other assets, such as exchange-traded funds.

The Yen rebounded as the greenback weakened across the board. The U.S dollar failed to benefit from higher-than-expected manufacturing data that supported the case of the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates at its December meeting.

The Institute for Supply Management reported its manufacturing index rose to 51.9% in October, the highest in three months. The reading was slightly ahead of 51.7% forecast by economists. A similar survey of industry executives produced by IHS Markit also pointed to an improvement in manufacturing activities last month. The Markit index hit a one-year high at 53.4.

However, the U.S construction spending released by the Commerce Department unexpectedly declined 0.4% in September, as spending on private nonresidential structures recorded the biggest decline in nine months.

Topping to mixed data that could not power the greenback’s strength, recent polls showing the tightening presidential race between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton also weighed on the U.S dollar. Enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate has warned since FBI Director James Comey on Friday said the bureau would reopen the investigation into Clinton’s misuse of a private email server.

The U.S Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision on Wednesday, and is expected to leave rates unchanged ahead of the presidential election next week.

Fig: USDJPY H4 Technical Chart

USDJPY has retreated below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 104.750 after moving sideways above this level for two days. The price action has crossed over both two moving averages and brought market back into the bearish territory. As can be observed from indicator windows, RSI index has confirmed the downtrend by dropping below the 50 line – which devides the bullish zone from the bearish area.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 104.250, Take profit at 103.160, Stop loss at 104.600

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 2, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on November 2, 2016

Asian shares tumbled on Wednesday, following U.S equities’ footsteps amid polls indicating a closing gap between Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton on the race to the White House. Some recent polls even showed Trump ahead with 46 percent support compared to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 45 percent. This is the first time since May that the Republican nominee has taken the lead, which resulted from a lack of enthusiasm among Clinton supporters.

Against the background of share selloff, safe-haven assets rallied. The yen rose for a second day, while the Swiss franc and gold were approaching their highest levels in almost a month. The greenback, which is typically considered as one of the safe havens, slumped today. The U.S dollar fell to a three-week low against the euro and lost ground versus the yen overnight ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision which will be announced later on Wednesday.

New Zealand dollar reached two-week highs in the wake of tightening labor market. In a report released earlier today, Statistics New Zealand said that the country’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.9% in three months to September, from 5.1% in the preceding quarter. Meanwhile, employment grew 6.1% on a yearly basis and 1.4% quarter-on-quarter with an increasing labor force participation.

Crude oil prices fell for a fourth day on Wednesday following industry data showed a surprise build in inventories. The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported crude stockpiles increased by 9.3 million barrels in the week to Oct. 28, more than nine times the amount expected by analysts polled by Reuters.



Technicals

GBPUSD



Fig: GBPUSD H4 Technical Chart

GBPUSD has been trading sideways since the start of this week after a short rally from the low at 1.21426. The pair is on track to hit the upper boundary at 1.23300. While the short-term MA20 has converged with the long-term MA50 from below, the RSI index is moving in the bullish zone, supporting potential upbeat moves.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.22500, Take profit at 1.23300, Stop loss at 1.22100



CADJPY



Fig: CADJPY H4 Technical Chart

CADJPY has broken through two major Fibonacci levels at 38.2% and 50.0% and is heading downwards towards the 61.8%. The pair failed to bounce back from the 50.0% level at 77.519 and is forecast to fall deeper as signal for a continual downtrend has come from two MAs which have just converged. A low-level RSI and a soaring ADX consolidate the uptrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 77.400, Take profit at 77.020, Stop loss at 77.600



EURCAD



Fig: EURCAD H4 Technical Chart

After a correction on Monday that brought the pair near the 23.6% retracement, EURCAD has surged strongly. However, as the 38.2% level is within the sight, the rally seems limited. Furthermore, RSI index has penetrated the overbought market while +DI is heading down, suggesting potential reversal. Hence, 38.2% level can be aimed as near-term target.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1.48300, Take profit at 1.48800, Stop loss at 1.47900



GOLD



Fig: GOLD H4 Technical Chart

Gold has been on a strong rally since it bound back from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The precious metal is approaching another important Fibonacci level at 23.6% which is at 1297.68. Gold’s bullish sentiment has been fueled by two MAs placed below the price action. However, as market has entered the overbought zone and buyers seem to get week (as indicated by the ADX chart), the yellow metal may move sideways or pull back from the 23.6% handle unless it gets a boost from the fundamental side.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 1292.50, Take profit at 1297.68, Stop loss at 1287.00



WTI



Fig: WTI D1 Technical Chart

U.S. WTI is about to hit the 23.6% retracement at 46.00 which is also the lowest level since September 28th. A strong plunge has sent the commodity to trade below both the DMA20 and DMA50 and brought the market into the bearish territory. Crude investors are waiting for U.S official stocks data due later today. A larger-than-expected increase in U.S stockpiles may damp the commodity price to as low as 44.50.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 46.00, Take profit at 44.50, Stop loss at 46.80



NASDAQ 100



Fig: NASDAQ 100 H4 Technical Chart

The U.S. NASDAQ 100 index fell to as low as 4723.63 yesterday. The index simultaneously breached the support at 4700.00 before pulling back from the lowest level since mid-September. However, the price failed to get back above the 4700.00 handle and may create a gap down following the selloff of global stock market. The support at 23.6% level is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 4745.00, Take profit at 4660.00, Stop loss at 4775.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Copper Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Copper Retreats From Two-month Highs, Time To Buy The Dips

Copper has fallen for the first time on Wednesday following a seven-day winning streak. The metal hit two-month highs on Tuesday as it was given fresh support from Chinese economic data which indicated robust demand for industrial metals.

Today’s fall is believed to be a correction after hefty gains as investors took profit. Manufacturing activities in China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper, were reported to expand at the fastest pace in more than two years in October. According to figures released on Tuesday, the PMI stood at 51.2 in October, much stronger than September and the highest reading since July 2014.

An expansion in Chinese manufacturing sector is expected to keep fueling demand for the copper.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 2.2110, Take profit at 2.2300, Stop loss at 2.2000

 

[CSFX.Support]

BRENT/USD signal by Capital Street FX

From GMT 09:15 1/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 2/11/2016

Sell at 47.50
Take profit at 46.40
Stop loss at 48.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Alibaba Trade Idea by Capital Street FX

Alibaba’s Quarterly Results Top Estimates – Long Position Suggested

Shares of Alibaba Group Holding Ltd added 4.3% premarket to $105.50 after the Chinese e-commerce giant reported much better than expected fiscal second quarter earnings.

The Hangzhou, China-based company registered earnings per share of $0.79 for the last quarter, which was nine cents better than market’s $0.70 estimate. Alibaba’s revenue soared 55% from last year to $5.14 billion, betting analysts’ view of $5.05 billion.

The company reported revenue from core commerce surged 41%, while cloud computing revenues rose 130%. Additionally, revenue from digital media and entertainment jumped 302%, while innovation initiatives and other revenue rose 78% from the year-ago period.

Trade suggestion

Buy Limit at 98.00, Take profit at 100.00, Stop loss at 97.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 3, 2016 by Capital Street FX


Daily Report on November 3, 2016

Global stocks’ selloff deepened on Thursday as a tightening race for the U.S. presidency triggered uncertainties about the outcome of Nov. 8 vote, which prompted investors to flock into traditional havens such as Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and gold. U.S. equity index futures joined the U.S dollar and the Mexican peso on the defensive after Fox News reported that a FBI probe related to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s misuse of private e-mail was intensifying.

Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday hit the market little since the central bank decided to stand pat on its monetary policy as markets expected. Fed kept the option open for a hike by year-end, stating in its statement that it needs “some” further evidence of improving inflation and employment before raising interest rates.

The British Pound is on the verge of wide fluctuation today as investors are waiting for data release on the country’s service PMI and the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement which comes with the U.K’s quarterly Inflation Report. Markets expect no changes made to the BOE’s key rates and will focus on the bank’s economic forecasts, particularly expectations for inflation.

But before that, the Cable may vacillate strongly as three senior judges in London will publish their decision on whether the Parliament can play a role in the process of triggering Article 50. If Prime Minister Theresa May cannot begin Britain’s exit from the European Union without permission from Parliament, the process could be delayed by more than a year.



Technicals

EURGBP



Fig: EURGBP H4 Technical Chart

EURGBP has been trapped in a trading range for almost a month. The pair has slid since it nearly hit the upper boundary at 0.90555. The price action has crossed over two MAs, consolidating the downtrend. RSI that surpassed the 50 line also supports the down moves. The pair may fall as low as 0.88800 – which is the lower boundary.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.89500, Stop loss at 0.89800, Take profit at 0.88800



NZDUSD



Fig: NZDUSD H4 Technical Chart

NZDUSD has been struggling around the one-month highs at 0.73000 after a strong rally from the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Bulls have lost their steam which sent the prices to move sideways. The upside seems limited as the market has been overblown while the major level at 0.73600 is within the sight.

Trade suggestion

Sell limit at 0.73600, Stop loss at 0.73800, Take profit at 0.73000



EURNZD



Fig: EURNZD H4 Technical Chart

As can be seen from the chart, EURNZD entered a short correction after falling to as low as 1.51692. However, a few up moves failed to help the pair breach the 23.6% level at 1.52546. The pair pulled back at this handle and is heading towards the 0.0% Fibonacci retracement. With RSI indicating a market in favor of bears, the pair is anticipated to fall deeper.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.51800, Stop loss at 1.52650, Take profit at 1.51300



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

Silver fell back below the 38.2% level after breaking above this handle on Tuesday. The metal hit one-month high at 18.716 before giving up its bullish strength and reversing lower. Silver is struggling with the short-term MA20 when the market has not entered the bearish zone yet, which is pointed out by the RSI. Therefore, there a chance that silver may bounce back after the current correction.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18.300, Stop loss at 17.950, Take profit at 18.700



Sugar



Fig: SUGAR H4 Technical Chart

Sugar resumed its downtrend after a correction from the low of 21.10. Buyers jumped in as a long streak of declines had brought the market into the oversold zone and opened the chance for buying the dips. However, with downward pressure from two MAs hanging above the chart, sugar is expected to extend its slide.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 21.50, Stop loss at 21.80, Take profit at 21.10



CAC 40



Fig: CAC 40 H4 Technical Chart

France’s CAC 40 has broken through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from below after falling for four days in a row to as low as 4397.00. The index pulled back from the overbought zone and is heading upwards to test the resistance at 4495.00. As the %K line is taking the lead, CAC 40 is expected to surge higher.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 4452.60, Stop loss at 4457.30, Take profit at 4495.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

AUD/JPY signals by Capital Street FX

From GMT 07:40 03/11/2016
Till GMT 21:00 03/11/2016

Sell at 78.790
Take profit at 78.000
Stop loss at 79.300

 

[CSFX.Support]

GBPUSD Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

Sterling Takes Off After BOE Holding Rates, Can It Survive Friday’s NFP?

British Pound rallied to four-week highs versus the U.S dollar on Thursday, powered by both economic and political factors. The Bank of England (BOE) decided to hold its rates unchanged after a court ruling that the government must hold a vote in Parliament before triggering the Brexit process. Earlier on the day, the U.K’s Services PMI was reported to hit the highest level since January 2016.

The pair GBPUSD hit its peak since October 07th at 1.24940 after the Bank of England kept interest rate intact. In a statement following the rate decision, the BOE Governor Mark Carney stated that the Monetary Policy Committee “have a neutral bias around policy going forward.” It means that the U.K’s central bank not only did not have the intention to cut rates further this year, but it was also considering tightening its monetary policy in the near term.

Carney almost wiped out market’s expectation that the bank will cut the key rate to a new record low by stating on Thursday that “Monetary policy can respond in either direction to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the target,”.

Sterling, which slumped strongly in the aftermath of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, has played an important role in pushing up inflation. However, according to the MPC, the current rally in prices may be too strong to support growth. Therefore, a rate hike may be needed if faster-than-expected price gains cause adverse effect to the economy.

Another factor that gave a boost to the Cable today is the decision by a U.K. high court that forces the government to hold a vote in Parliament before triggering the Article 50 to start the two-year countdown to the nation’s exit from the European Union. The participation of Parliament whose members were overwhelmingly pro-EU before the June 23 referendum, may delay Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to kick off the Brexit negotiations beyond March 2017 – her initial schedule.

In the U.S., the race to the White House has become unpredictable since the FBI reopened its investigation into Clinton’s use of private email while she was Secretary of State. The U.S dollar was weakened after some polls indicated the resurgence of Republican Donald Trump. However, the greenback has regained steam following fresh polls showing Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, although the gap is just a few percent points.

Investors are waiting for tomorrow’s monthly payrolls report, which is forecast by economist to show an increase of 174,000 new jobs in October. Upbeat data will strengthen the case for the Fed to raise rate next month. In a statement on Wednesday after the central bank opted to leave rates unchanged, the FOMC said it only needed “some” further evidence that inflation and employment were on track toward their goals to hike.

Fig: GBPUSD H4 technical chart

GBPUSD has broken its trading range from 1.20880 to 1.23300, within which the pair was locked for nearly a month. Sterling rallied sharply but failed to sustain the bullish momentum beyond the 1.24700 level. The pair had to reverse low against this handle also because the market has stepped in the overbought zone. Some corrective moves are expected.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 1.24200, Take profit at 1.23300, Stop loss at 1.24800

 

[CSFX.Support]

Daily Report on November 04, 2016 by Capital Street FX

Daily Report on November 04, 2016

Stock markets extended their selloffs on Friday as investor confidence in riskier assets has been sapped ahead of next week’s U.S. presidential election. According to latest polls, Democrat Hillary Clinton maintained her lead over her rival Donald Trump. However, the presidential race may be tightening just days before Tuesday's vote. Wall Street sagged on Thursday, with the S&P 500's eighth straight losing session marking its longest streak since the 2008 financial crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent on the last trading day of the week, heading for its worst close in seven weeks. Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 1.3% after trading resumed following a holiday on Thursday. Dragged down by the resurgence of the safe-haven yen, the Japanese benchmark has lost 3.1% for the week, the biggest weekly drop in four months.

In its November Monetary Policy Statement released on Friday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its output growth and inflation forecasts virtually unchanged, and indicated its contentment with the current cash rate of 1.5%. The central bank expected GDP growth to average between 2.5% and 3.5% to June 2017, and core inflation increasing to 1.5 – 2.5% over the next two years. Stability in Chinese economy, higher commodity prices and record residential building approvals are expected to underpin Australian growth.

In the U.S., the nonfarm payrolls report due later today is forecast to show employers added 175,000 jobs in October. U.S. data on Thursday showed that services industry activity cooled last month amid a slowdown in new orders and hiring. The ISM's non-manufacturing registered at 54.8, below both expectations of 56.0 and last month's 57.1 reading.



Technicals

CADCHF



Fig: CADCHF H4 Technical Chart

CADCHF has been struggling above the 50.0% retracement at 0.72680 since it breached this level yesterday. The pair failed to soar higher as the short-term MA20 is exerting downward pressure on the price. The pair may dip below the 50.0% level again and find its support at 0.72400.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.72650, Take profit at 0.72400, Stop loss at 0.72850



AUDJPY



Fig: AUDJPY H4 Technical Chart

Excluding a spike yesterday, the pair has moving sideways for nearly three-day following a steep drop from three-and-a-half-month highs at 80.624. The slide has helped the pair breached the support that is an upwards slopping trendline. With downward pressure from 2 MAs hanging above the price action and the fact that the %K line has crossed over the %D line from above, the pair is expected to break below the 79.000 support.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 79.000, Take profit at 78.700, Stop loss at 79.300



USDCHF



Fig: USDCHF H4 Technical Chart

USDCHF reversed lower after the price action hit the short-term MA20 at 0.97516. The market has escaped from the oversold zone but it still remains in the bearish area. As indicated by the RSI which is pointing downwards, bears are overwhelmingly dominant on the market, suggesting further downtrend.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 0.97400, Take profit at 0.96930, Stop loss at 0.97600



SILVER



Fig: SILVER H4 Technical Chart

After drifting lower to fall back below the 38.2% level at 18.289, silver rebounded and surpassed this handle again. The silver market survived from falling into the bearish territory, which is indicated by RSI index which crawled back from 50 line. Silver is expected to retest the high at 18.700 logged on Wednesday.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 18.350, Take profit at 18.700, Stop loss at 18.165



COFFEE



Fig: Coffee H4 Technical Chart

Coffee has risen strongly since it pulled back from the support at 160.60. As can be seen from the chart, this price action has crossed over the MA20, consolidating the uptrend. As both RSI and ADX indexes are on a rise, the uptrend is strong. Coffee is expected to test the high at 166.70 logged one week ago.

Trade suggestion

Buy Stop at 165.60, Take profit at 166.70, Stop loss at 165.00



Sp500



Fig: SP500 H4 Technical Chart

SP500 index fell off from 23.6% level on Wednesday, recording the first time the price has fallen below this level since early-July. While the %K line and the %D line have neared the 20 threshold, ADX is still rising, supporting the downtrend. RSI may find its support at 2072.00.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 2085.00, Take profit at 2072.00, Stop loss at 2095.00

 

[CSFX.Support]

FTSE Market Outlook by Capital Street FX

FTSE 100 Keeps Falling, Weighed by Pound and U.S. Political Jitters

U.K. shares dropped on Friday, extending their losses to the sixth consecutive trading days. The FTSE 100 index headed for its worst weekly performance in 10 months, dragged down by the pound’s rise and the bearish sentiment from losses in U.S. markets.

With only a few shares trading higher, the U.K.’s benchmark lost 1.28% so far to fall to as low as 6,703.91. Uncertainties over the outcome of the White House race have worried investors. The gap between Republican nominee Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, who is seen as more positive for financial markets, has been narrowing since last Friday, when the case related to Clinton’s use of private emails was reported to be reopened.

The slide of the FTSE 100 index was also due to a strengthening Pound which has gained momentum since a U.K high court ruled that a parliamentary vote must be held before the government trigger the two-year negotiation on the U.K.’s withdrawal from the European Union. Furthermore, the Bank of England on Thursday decided to leave its rate unchanged, stating that the central bank can even raise rate if inflation grows too fast and cause adverse effects on the economy.

Many blue-chip stocks that had been benefitting from the fall in the pound, now retreated as foreign earnings for multinational companies will be dampened when converted into sterling if the cable strengthens.

Among multinationals, Hikma Pharma led losses on the market as the company’s shares dropped 5.9%, Shire PLC also declined, shedding 3.07%. Other market’s movers including housebuilding companies, with Taylor Wimpey plc losing 3.53% and Persimmon plc dropping 3.93%.

Also on the downtrend, shares of The British Airways parent, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, plunged 3.59%. IAG cut a key medium-term earnings measure and lowered growth expectations as it adjusts to the post-Brexit vote slide in sterling.

Fig: FTSE 100 technical chart

FTSE 100 index has fallen below the 23.6% retracement at 6743.55 and is heading downwards to test the support at 6650.00. The index is under downward pressure from two MAs which hanging above the price action. RSI has entered the oversold area, signalling a pull back soon to come.

Trade suggestion

Sell Stop at 6700.00, Stop loss at 6750.00, Take profit at 6650.00