Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.18.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD fundamental analysis is being viewed cautiously as traders await key economic events from both the Eurozone and the United States. In focus is the speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, a voting member of the ECB Governing Council, which could provide critical clues about the ECB's monetary policy outlook. A hawkish tone could support the Euro, while dovish remarks may extend bearish pressure. Additionally, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will shed light on inflation levels, a key factor for ECB policy decisions. On the USD side, the Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be released, serving as a leading indicator of construction activity and overall economic health. A better-than-expected US outcome may strengthen the Dollar, reinforcing the bearish bias for EUR/USD.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 candle chart reveals that the pair is stuck in a downward channel, indicating a persistent bearish trend. The EURUSD price action has been making lower highs and lower lows, confirming sellers' control. The pair is currently consolidating near the 1.0493 level but remains under pressure below the descending trendline. A breakout above 1.0520, the immediate resistance level, could signal a short-term reversal, while failure to break above this level may see the price decline toward the lower support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, highlighting a EUR/USD bearish bias. The cloud between 1.0500 and 1.0520 acts as a strong resistance zone. A sustained move above the cloud could signal a trend reversal, while rejection at this level will maintain the pair’s bearish outlook.
RVI (Relative Vigor Index): The RVI (10) currently stands at -0.060, with the signal line slightly negative. This suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. A positive crossover near zero would be an early sign of a potential upward reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI (14) is at 45.76, reflecting a neutral to slightly bearish sentiment. If the RSI drops below 40, it will confirm increasing bearish momentum. A push above 50 would indicate growing bullish interest.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The 1.0483 level, is the immediate support and the 1.0450 level is the Key lower support, aligning with the descending channel bottom.
Resistance Levels: The 1.0520 level remains the Immediate resistance at the descending trendline and cloud boundary, followed by the next key resistance above the cloud 1.0545.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today on its H4 chart continues to show signs of a downtrend, as it remains confined within the descending channel. The bearish signals are reinforced by the Ichimoku Cloud resistance, the RSI below 50, and the RVI pointing downward. Traders should monitor 1.0520 for any breakout to the upside, which may indicate a short-term reversal, while failure to break resistance could push the pair toward 1.0483 and 1.0450. Upcoming Eurozone inflation data and Nagel’s speech could provide significant volatility, while strong US economic releases may strengthen the USD further. Traders are advised to exercise caution and implement robust risk management strategies given the current mixed market signals and fundamental events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.18.2024

 

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.19.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The NZDUSD reflects the exchange rate between the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the U.S. Dollar (USD). Today, the USD’s performance will be closely tied to the release of key economic data, including GDP figures and Initial Jobless Claims. Stronger-than-expected data may bolster the USD, adding downward pressure on the NZDUSD pair. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s economic sentiment may hinge on business confidence data and risk appetite in global markets. Given the divergence in economic outlooks, traders should expect significant volatility during the U.S. session, as these releases will provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy.


Price Action
In the H4 timeframe, the NZDUSD pair continues to exhibit a strong bearish trend. The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating intense selling pressure. This sharp decline has pushed the pair into oversold territory, as shown by key momentum indicators. While there might be a temporary retracement, bearish dominance persists, suggesting further downside risk.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The NZDUSD price has decisively breached the lower Bollinger Band, signaling strong bearish momentum. The widening bands reflect increased volatility, and the price trading outside the bands indicates an extreme move, which may lead to a short-term corrective pullback.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, confirming the continuation of the bearish trend. This suggests that the downward momentum is firmly in place, and further declines are likely unless a significant reversal occurs.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 18.82, deep in the oversold zone. While this level indicates strong bearish sentiment, it also raises the possibility of a short-term correction as the market may temporarily stabilize or retrace before continuing its downward movement.
Force Index: The Force Index, sitting at -6.23546, confirms the heavy selling pressure in the market. The negative value aligns with the bearish trend, signaling that bears remain in control without any immediate signs of reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.5550, with a critical level at 0.5500, which aligns with the 100% Fibonacci retracement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 0.5620, coinciding with the middle Bollinger Band and a previous consolidation zone. Further resistance can be seen at 0.5680, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration
The NZDUSD pair on the H4 chart is in a strong bearish trend, as confirmed by the technical indicators, including Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, RSI, and Force Index. The breach of key support levels, coupled with oversold conditions, suggests that while bearish momentum remains dominant, a short-term retracement could occur. Fundamental data from the U.S. will be pivotal in shaping the pair’s direction in the coming sessions. Traders should remain cautious, as increased volatility is expected due to the release of major economic indicators.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.19.2024

 

[FXGlory]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.20.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD forecast reflects the economic and monetary policy interplay between the United States and Canada. Today’s USD/CAD news analysis includes upcoming U.S. data, with Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and consumer spending reports, that will be key indicators of inflation trends and consumer behavior, potentially bolstering USD strength if data surprises to the upside. Simultaneously, Canada’s retail sales figures, including core retail sales excluding automobiles, will provide insights into domestic consumer activity. Stronger-than-expected Canadian data could lend support to the CAD by indicating robust consumer spending. However, any dovish undertone from Federal Reserve remarks during Mary Daly's interview may cap USD gains, highlighting the ongoing tug-of-war between the two currencies.


Price Action:
On the USD/CAD H4 chart, the price continues to trade within an ascending channel, indicating a clear USDCAD bullish trend. The pair’s price action has been making higher highs and higher lows, maintaining its upward momentum. Currently, it is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, suggesting a potential test of resistance. A break above the channel could signal a continuation of the rally, while rejection might lead to a retracement toward the channel's lower boundary.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 65.99, which signals bullish momentum but is approaching overbought territory. Traders should monitor for signs of a reversal or divergence as the RSI nears the 70 level.
Bollinger Bands: The price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, typically a dynamic resistance level. This could lead to a short-term pullback or consolidation, especially if the price fails to break decisively above this band. However, sustained movement along the band’s upper boundary indicates strong buying pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is expanding positively, with the MACD line staying above the signal line, reinforcing the USD/CAD bullish momentum. This indicator suggests that the upward trend is still intact, with no immediate signs of weakening.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is located at 1.4280, near the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Below that, 1.4200 serves as the next key support level, aligning with the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
Resistance Levels: The pair faces immediate resistance at 1.4450, the upper channel boundary. A breakout above this level could pave the way toward 1.4500, a psychological resistance level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD analysis today remains firmly bullish on its H4 candle chart, supported by positive fundamentals and technical indicators. The RSI and MACD reflect sustained upward momentum, while the Bollinger Bands suggest caution as the price approaches overbought levels. Traders should closely monitor today’s economic releases from both the U.S. and Canada for potential catalysts. A breakout above the 1.4450 resistance could signal continued upside, while a rejection may prompt a retracement. Effective risk management, including stops near the support levels, is advisable given potential volatility from fundamental events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.20.2024

 

[FXGlory]

BTCUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.23.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant decline in recent days following a broad sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. The bearish sentiment in BTCUSD coincides with a strengthening US Dollar (USD), driven by improved economic confidence indicators such as the US CB Consumer Confidence report expected later today. A higher-than-forecast result could further bolster the USD, applying downward pressure on BTC USD. Additionally, market participants remain cautious ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, which could reinforce the dollar's strength amid continued inflation concerns and higher interest rates. For Bitcoin, macroeconomic factors such as regulatory developments and adoption trends remain pivotal, but short-term trading may hinge on USD strength and risk sentiment.


Price Action:
The BTC/USD pair on the H4 timeframe reveals a sharp bearish trend. After reaching a significant high earlier in the month, the price has entered a pronounced downward channel. The formation of consecutive bearish candles with intermittent bullish corrections reflects persistent selling pressure. Notably, the price broke below the Ichimoku Cloud and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, signaling a transition to bearish dominance. Currently, the pair is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which serves as a critical support zone.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The BTC/USD price has decisively broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming bearish momentum. The lagging span is below the price action, and the cloud ahead is bearish (red), indicating further downside potential unless the price reclaims key levels above the cloud.
Volumes: Trading volumes indicate strong selling activity. The spikes in volume accompanying bearish candles suggest heightened bearish sentiment, while lower volumes during bullish retracements reflect weak buying interest. This supports the continuation of the downward trend.
MACD: The MACD line is well below the signal line, and the histogram shows increasing bearish momentum. The deepening divergence between the MACD and signal lines indicates that the bearish trend is gaining strength, with no immediate signs of a reversal.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The first key support level is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which stands at $92,829.72. A further decline could see the price testing the next significant support at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level near $87,014.05, marking a critical zone for buyers to step in.
Resistance Levels: The immediate resistance is positioned at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $98,645.35, which needs to be reclaimed to reduce bearish pressure. Beyond this, a stronger resistance awaits near $102,522.45, aligning with the upper boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud and previous support levels.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The BTC/USD pair in the H4 timeframe remains firmly in a bearish trend. Key technical indicators, including the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Fibonacci levels, all point to sustained downward pressure. However, the upcoming US CB Consumer Confidence report may cause additional volatility, as positive data for the USD could weigh further on BTC-USD. Traders should monitor key support levels such as $92,829.72 and $87,014.05 for potential breakdowns or signs of reversal. Conversely, a recovery above the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the Ichimoku Cloud would be necessary to challenge the current bearish outlook.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.23.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EURAUD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.24.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/AUD currency pair is currently influenced by key fundamental factors. Today, the Eurozone is observing a German Bank Holiday, resulting in reduced liquidity for the EUR. This typically leads to lower trading volumes and can cause the EUR to exhibit subdued volatility. Conversely, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is set to react to the release of the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 12:30 AM. Traders will be closely monitoring these minutes for insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) future monetary policy decisions, which could significantly impact the AUD's strength against the EUR. The interplay between reduced EUR liquidity and potential shifts in AUD policy outlooks is expected to shape the trading dynamics of the EURAUD pair today.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, the EURAUD pair is demonstrating a bullish price action. The current price sits above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a strong upward momentum. Additionally, the price is forming a flag pattern, which suggests a continuation of the prevailing bullish trend after a brief consolidation phase. The pair has maintained its position above key support levels at 1.66172, 1.65700, and 1.65620, reinforcing the upward trajectory. This flag pattern, combined with the price being above the Ichimoku Cloud, points to a sustained bullish sentiment among traders, potentially leading to further upward movement in the near term.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: On the EURAUD chart, the price and candles are positioned above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a strong bullish trend. The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen, further confirming upward momentum, while the Chikou Span remains above the price action, adding additional bullish confirmation in this technical analysis.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line and both are above the zero line, indicating robust bullish momentum. The expanding MACD histogram suggests increasing strength in the upward trend, and recent bullish crossovers reinforce the potential for continued price gains.
Volume: Trading volume on the H4 timeframe for EURAUD is on the rise, supporting the bullish outlook as higher volumes accompany the upward price movement. The increasing volume during price advances indicates strong buying interest, reinforcing the likelihood of sustained bullish.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support at 1.66172, where the price is currently consolidating. Further support levels are seen at 1.65700 and 1.65620, which could provide stronger buying interest if the price continues to decline.
Resistance: Resistance is located at 1.67000, a recent level where price gains were capped. Additional resistance levels are at 1.67500 and 1.68000, where stronger selling pressure may re-emerge if the price rebounds.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURAUD pair on the H4 chart exhibits strong bullish momentum, supported by both fundamental and technical indicators. The price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud and is forming a flag pattern, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend. RSI and volume indicators further reinforce the buy signal, while the established support levels provide a safety net against potential pullbacks. However, traders should remain cautious of upcoming fundamental events, such as the release of the AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which could introduce volatility. Additionally, the reduced EUR liquidity due to the German Bank Holiday may lead to unexpected price movements. Overall, the technical setup is favorable for bullish traders, but staying alert to fundamental developments is essential.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/AUD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURAUD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.24.2024

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.27.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD news analysis today influenced by various economic events and market sentiment surrounding both the British Pound and the US Dollar. Key upcoming US data includes trade and inventory reports, as well as energy stock levels, which will likely impact USD demand. A strong trade balance or inventory data may bolster the USD. Conversely, with no immediate impactful UK economic data today, the market is focused on the broader monetary policy outlook from the Bank of England and global risk sentiment, both of which could affect the GBP. Economic divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England could set the tone for the medium-term GBPUSD trend.


Price Action:
On the GBP/USD H4 chart, the price has been trading within a defined range, showing signs of consolidation after a sharp recent downtrend. The pair’s price has been unable to break key resistance levels, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. The candlestick patterns suggest indecision among traders, as evidenced by repeated tests of both resistance and support levels without a clear breakout.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading below the Kumo (cloud), which signals GBPUSD’s bearish bias. However, a close above the Tenkan-Sen (red line) could indicate short-term bullish pressure. The Senkou Span A and B are diverging slightly, suggesting indecision but a predominantly bearish trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, with a negative histogram value, highlighting continued bearish momentum. However, the declining size of the histogram bars suggests that bearish pressure is waning, potentially signaling a shift in momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 43.79, the RSI suggests neutral-to-bearish conditions, as the indicator remains below the 50-mark. This indicates that sellers still have control, but the market is not yet oversold.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is observed at 1.25143, followed by 1.24848. A break below these levels could trigger further downside momentum.
Resistance Levels: Key resistance levels are at 1.25387 and 1.25639. A breach above these levels could confirm a bullish breakout and push the price higher toward 1.25965.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD H4 outlook today hints that the pair’s bearish trend is weakening, as indicated by the Ichimoku cloud, RSI, and MACD. However, the waning bearish momentum could signal potential consolidation or a reversal in the near term. Traders should closely monitor the upcoming US data releases and any geopolitical developments that might impact the GBP/USD forecast today. A breakout above 1.25387 would be a bullish confirmation, while a breakdown below 1.25143 could signal further downside risks.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.27.2024

 

[FXGlory]

USDCHF H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.30.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CHF currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). Today's focus lies on two significant economic events. For the USD, the Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales reports are expected to provide insights into the health of the US economy. A higher-than-forecast Chicago PMI would indicate expansion in business activity, supporting the USD. Meanwhile, robust Pending Home Sales data could strengthen the dollar further by reflecting healthy consumer demand. On the CHF side, the KOF Economic Barometer release is expected to give a forward-looking view of the Swiss economy. A stronger reading than forecast may boost the CHF, though the overall impact is likely to be moderate compared to the USD’s key data releases.


Price Action:
The USDCHF forex pair on the H4 chart remains in a bullish trend, trading within a well-defined ascending channel. Despite the last two bearish candles, the overall momentum stays intact, with the price consolidating near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The USD-CHF pair is currently positioned above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a continuation of bullish sentiment. Buyers remain in control, but the price is showing signs of testing minor resistance at the upper boundary of the channel.


Key Technical Indicators:
IchiMoku Cloud: The USD CHF price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, confirming a bullish trend. While the last two candles show minor pullbacks, the bullish momentum remains intact, as the price sustains its position above the cloud, indicating a strong support zone.
Volumes: The volume bars indicate a decrease in buying activity, with the last two candles accompanied by red volume bars. This suggests a slowdown in bullish momentum, warranting caution as the price approaches key resistance levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains positive, with the MACD line staying above the signal line. However, there are signs of waning momentum, as the histogram shows a slight reduction in bullish pressure. This could indicate potential consolidation before the next upward move.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: 0.90000, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Key Resistance: 0.90635, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the upper boundary of the channel.


Conclusion and Considerations:
The USDCHF pair remains in a bullish trend on the H4 chart, supported by the Ichimoku cloud and the ascending channel. However, caution is advised as the last two bearish candles and declining volume indicate a potential consolidation phase. Traders should monitor the upcoming Chicago PMI and KOF Economic Barometer releases, as they could trigger increased volatility and influence the USDC/HF pair's direction. A breakout above 0.90635 would confirm further bullish momentum, while a drop below 0.90000 may signal a short-term reversal.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
12.30.2024

 

[FXGlory]

XRPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 12.31.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The XRP/USD pair is influenced by both cryptocurrency market dynamics and broader financial indicators. Currently, XRP is experiencing a slightly bearish trend influenced by reduced liquidity due to upcoming financial events. The latest news indicates that German banks will be closed in observance of New Year's Eve, leading to low liquidity and irregular volatility in the forex markets. Additionally, upcoming releases from Standard & Poor's and FHFA on January 28, 2025, regarding housing prices are expected to impact the USD positively if the actual figures exceed forecasts. These fundamental factors suggest potential downward pressure on XRPUSD in the short term, as traders navigate through lower liquidity and anticipate key economic data releases.


Price Action
The XRP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently in a slightly bearish trend. Over the past week, the price has been consolidating in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, oscillating between the lower and middle bands. Recent candlestick patterns indicate a series of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Additionally, the trading volume has been decreasing, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest, which may lead to further downside movement if the bearish trend continues.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The XRP/USD pair is trading within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, positioned between the lower band and the middle band. This placement indicates a slightly bearish trend, as the price struggles to break above the middle band. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggests a potential decrease in volatility, which could precede a significant price movement either upwards or downwards.
Volumes: Trading volumes for XRPUSD have been on a downward trend, signaling reduced market participation. Lower volumes often precede trend reversals or continuation, depending on other indicators. In this case, the declining volumes support the current bearish outlook, as diminished buying interest fails to sustain the price above the middle Bollinger Band.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI for XRP USD is currently hovering around 40, below the neutral level of 50. This positioning indicates that the pair is in a slightly bearish territory, with potential for further declines. The RSI trend suggests that selling pressure may continue, although it is not yet in oversold territory, leaving room for additional bearish momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is reflecting bearish momentum, with readings below 50 and moving towards the oversold region. This suggests that the downward movement may persist, as the oscillator indicates sustained selling pressure. However, traders should remain cautious of potential reversals if the oscillator starts to climb from the oversold levels.


Support and Resistance
Support: The price is currently approaching the 61.8 Fibonacci level, which serves as a strong support zone. This level is expected to provide a significant barrier against further declines, where buying interest may emerge to stabilize the price.
Resistance: On the upside, the 50.0 Fibonacci level acts as an important resistance area. If the price attempts to rise towards this level, selling pressure is likely to increase, preventing further upward movement and potentially causing the price to retreat.


Conclusion and Considerations
The XRP USD pair on the H4 chart is currently exhibiting a slightly bearish trend, supported by the price action within the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and declining trading volumes. Key technical indicators such as RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator reinforce the bearish sentiment, although they do not yet indicate oversold conditions. Traders should monitor the support levels at 0.65 and 0.60 for potential buying opportunities, while resistance at 0.70 and 0.75 may act as barriers to upward movement. Additionally, upcoming economic news, including the closure of German banks and housing price reports from Standard & Poor's and FHFA, could introduce further volatility and influence the USD, thereby impacting the XRP-USD pair. It is advisable to stay cautious and consider these fundamental factors when making trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XRP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XRPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential


FXGlory
12.31.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today, shows the pair is poised for significant moves with key data releases. On the Euro side, employment data reveals continued stability, with unemployment claims reflecting economic resilience. In contrast, the USD is influenced by the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid reports, which are vital indicators of economic expansion and inflation trends. Positive PMI data could strengthen the USD, exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials could amplify USD's bullish momentum, adding to volatility. Traders are bracing for these fundamental drivers, which could set the tone for the EUR/USD fundamental outlook today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD technical analysis today on its H4 chart indicates a pronounced bearish move, with the price breaking below key support levels. The large bearish candlestick signals strong seller dominance, and the pair is now testing the 1.0260 support zone. A potential retracement toward the 1.0350 level, now turned resistance, is possible before further downward movement. The overall structure suggests bearish momentum prevailing unless a decisive break above the resistance level occurs.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has decisively broken below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a EURUSD bearish trend continuation. Both the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are aligned downward, further reinforcing bearish momentum. The Lagging Span also supports this sentiment, sitting well below the price action and cloud.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows increasing negative momentum, with the MACD line diverging further below the signal line. This confirms the bearish momentum and suggests that selling pressure remains strong in the short term.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is found at 1.0260, a critical level that, if breached, could lead to further declines toward 1.0200.
Resistance Levels: Key resistance is located at 1.0350, with the next level of significant resistance at 1.0400, near the Ichimoku cloud base.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today tell us that it is entrenched in a bearish trend, with technical indicators and price action aligning to support further downside. Upcoming US ISM data could provide additional bearish catalysts if stronger-than-expected, bolstering the USD's position. Conversely, any weaker-than-anticipated data could trigger a short-term corrective rally. Traders should closely monitor the 1.0260 support level for a potential breakdown or reversal signals. Effective risk management, including stop-loss orders near resistance levels, is essential given the heightened volatility around today’s fundamental releases.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.03.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLDEUR Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)

Fundamental Analysis
The GOLDEUR pair, which reflects the price of gold in euros, is influenced by broader macroeconomic developments, such as inflation expectations and central bank policies. Today’s trading is expected to see lower liquidity due to the Italian banks being closed in observance of Epiphany Day, which could result in irregular volatility for the Euro. Meanwhile, the Eurozone CPI release will be critical for gauging inflation trends, with a higher-than-expected reading likely to strengthen the Euro by raising the probability of further European Central Bank tightening. Gold, however, may act as a safe haven, particularly if upcoming Eurozone economic data highlights uncertainties or weaknesses.


Price Action
In the H4 timeframe, GOLDEUR exhibits a corrective pullback after a strong bullish surge. The pair has recently touched the upper Bollinger Band and is now retracing towards the 23.6% Fibonacci level. Several bearish candles have formed, signaling the potential for further downside correction. If the price sustains below the 23.6% Fib level, it could continue its decline towards the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels, aligning with critical support zones. However, should the price regain upward momentum, a re-test of the recent highs near the upper Bollinger Band is possible.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The bands have widened significantly, indicating recent high volatility. The price has retreated from the upper band and is approaching the middle band, which acts as a dynamic support level. A break below this level could signal further bearish momentum.
Volume: Volume has decreased slightly during the correction phase, indicating weaker bullish conviction and the possibility of continued downward movement.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 59.48, reflecting moderate bullish momentum. However, it is moving away from the overbought zone, suggesting potential room for further correction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold region (10.98), hinting at possible bearish exhaustion. This could indicate an imminent reversal or consolidation before further price action develops.


Support and Resistance Levels
Support: Immediate support is located at 2,571, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci level and recent price retracement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 2,583, coinciding with the recent high and the upper Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration
GOLDEUR currently shows signs of a technical correction within its broader bullish trend. While the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest that the correction could soon exhaust, traders should monitor the key Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band dynamics for clearer signals. The 23.6% Fibonacci level will serve as a critical pivot; a sustained break below it could open the path to deeper retracement levels. Conversely, a rebound could re-establish bullish momentum. The upcoming Eurozone CPI data will likely have a significant impact on GOLDEUR volatility, and lower liquidity due to the Italian holiday might exacerbate price swings.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/EUR is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDEUR. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.06.2025

 

[FXGlory]

ETHUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The ETH/USD pair is currently under the influence of a potential "Alcoin season," indicating a surge in interest and investment within the alternative cryptocurrency market. Today's key economic indicators for the USD, including the ISM Services PMI expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.1 and JOLTS Job Openings slightly decreasing to 7.73M from 7.74M, are scheduled for release at 3:00 PM. A stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI could bolster the USD, potentially exerting downward pressure on ETH/USD. Conversely, stable JOLTS figures are likely to have a neutral impact. Additionally, the increasing interest in alternative coins suggests a bullish sentiment that may support ETH/USD's upward trajectory.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, ETH/USD has embarked on a bullish wave, striving to breach the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The price action reflects a strong upward momentum, with ETH/USD maintaining its stance above key support levels at 3605.70, 3557.5, and 3486.00. This bullish movement suggests sustained buying interest and the potential for further price appreciation. The current attempt to surpass the Fibonacci level is a critical juncture that could either confirm the continuation of the bullish trend or lead to a consolidation phase if the resistance proves too strong.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is displaying a positive divergence, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line. The increasing histogram indicates growing bullish momentum, supporting the current upward trend in ETH/USD.
Ichimoku Cloud: ETH/USD is trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, which is a strong bullish signal. The cloud's configuration provides robust support for the ongoing upward movement, suggesting that the bullish trend is well-supported by this indicator.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate Support: 3605.70 – This level aligns with recent price consolidation and serves as the first line of defense against potential downward movements. Secondary Supports: 3557.5 and 3486.00 – These additional support levels provide strong floors that can absorb further declines, reinforcing the bullish outlook.
Resistance Levels: Primary Resistance: 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement Level – This is the key barrier that ETH/USD is attempting to overcome. A successful breach could lead to significant upward movement. Additional Resistance Levels: Previous highs and psychological price points should be monitored for potential resistance zones that may challenge the bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The ETH/USD pair on the H4 chart exhibits robust bullish momentum, underpinned by key technical indicators such as MACD and the Ichimoku Cloud. The current price action, striving to break above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, indicates a strong potential for continued upward movement. Supported by solid support levels at 3605.70, 3557.5, and 3486.00, the bullish trend appears well-supported. However, traders should remain vigilant of the critical resistance at the Fibonacci level and the impact of upcoming USD economic data releases. A successful breakout could present lucrative trading opportunities, while any failure to breach resistance may lead to a retracement towards the established supports.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for ETH/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on ETHUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.07.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.08.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today includes upcoming U.S. labor data such as ADP employment changes and initial jobless claims, which could indicate the health of the U.S. labor market and influence Federal Reserve policy. Strong employment data will likely bolster the dollar, further adding to the EUR/USD bearish outlook. On the Eurozone side, attention turns to German industrial orders and retail sales data. Weak results from these indicators may indicate softening economic activity in the Eurozone, adding to bearish sentiment on the Euro.


Price Action:
the EUR/USD technical analysis today on its H4 candle chart shows mixed sentiment, with the price hovering near a significant support level at 1.0315. The market attempted an upward move but was rejected at the 1.0340 resistance level, forming bearish candlesticks. Sellers appear to have regained control, driving the price back below the key Ichimoku Cloud.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling bearish momentum. The lagging span further supports a EURUSD bearish bias, and the resistance offered by the Kumo suggests that upward attempts will face strong selling pressure.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative, confirming bearish momentum. This aligns with the pair’s price action below the Ichimoku Cloud, further supporting a bearish outlook.
RSI (14): The RSI is at 45.63, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The value is well below the overbought zone, suggesting room for further downward movement.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.0315 (key horizontal support), followed by 1.0280 (next potential downside target).
Resistance Levels: 1.0340 (near-term resistance), with further resistance at 1.0375 (a prior high).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD forecast today highlights bearish momentum supported by the pair’s technical indicators and its fundamental headwinds. If the price sustains below the 1.0340 resistance level, it may test the 1.0315 support and potentially move toward 1.0280. Traders should monitor U.S. labor data closely, as stronger-than-expected results could accelerate the pair's bearish trajectory. The Ichimoku Cloud and MACD both indicate bearish trends, suggesting that short positions may be favorable with appropriate risk management. However, a surprise improvement in Eurozone data could provide temporary relief to the pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.08.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.09.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, the US Dollar might experience heightened volatility due to multiple scheduled Federal Reserve speeches. With FOMC members including Michelle Bowman and Patrick Harker discussing monetary policy and economic outlook, traders will look for any hawkish tones that could signal future interest rate adjustments. Simultaneously, the Australian Dollar's movements will be influenced by recent data on trade balance and retail sales, which serve as key indicators of consumer spending and export performance. Strong retail sales or trade surpluses tend to boost the AUD as they reflect economic resilience.


Price Action:
The AUD/USD pair in the H4 timeframe is showing signs of bearish momentum, with 6 out of the last 10 candles being bearish. However, the last two candles have been bullish, suggesting a potential short-term correction. The price is moving within the 61.8% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels, signaling a zone of support at 0.6193 and resistance at 0.6255. Additionally, the price remains in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, attempting to breach the middle band after bouncing from the lower band. The overall bias remains bearish unless the price closes above the middle Bollinger Band.


Key Technical Indicators Analysis:
Bollinger Bands: The AUD-USD price is trading in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, signaling bearish momentum. After touching the lower band, the price has started correcting upward, heading toward the middle band. However, it remains below this level, indicating continued downward pressure unless a breakout occurs.
Volumes: Volumes have remained moderate, with no significant spikes indicating strong bullish or bearish conviction. This suggests that the recent price movement may be part of a consolidation phase or a weak corrective rebound rather than a trend reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.86, slightly below the neutral 50 mark, which reflects weak bearish momentum. It is far from overbought or oversold levels, leaving room for further price movement in either direction.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is currently at 40.31 (K line) and 29.88 (D line), indicating a near-oversold condition. This hints at a potential short-term upward correction, though the bearish trend remains dominant overall.


Support and Resistance:
Support: 0.6193 aligns with the 100% Fibonacci retracement level and a recent price rejection area, serving as a key support for the current bearish momentum. 0.6145 is a historical support level below recent lows, which could act as the next downside target if bearish pressure persists.
Resistance: 0.6255 coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and has been a key resistance during the current price correction phase. 0.6310 is the middle Bollinger Band and a potential pivot point for a shift in trend, marking a critical area for bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD pair on the H4 chart shows an ongoing bearish trend, with recent bullish candles signaling a possible short-term correction. Traders should watch for a decisive move above the middle Bollinger Band or a breakdown below 0.6193 for further confirmation of direction. Key technical indicators like RSI and Stochastic suggest potential upward correction, but bearish momentum remains the broader trend. Fundamental drivers, including upcoming FOMC speeches and Australian retail sales figures, could add volatility to the AUD USD pair. A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve would likely strengthen the USD, while robust Australian trade data could lend support to the AUD.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.09.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USD/CAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/CAD news analysis today remains at the forefront of traders' focus due to upcoming key economic releases for both the US and Canada. For the USD, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), unemployment rate, and labor cost index data are expected to bring heightened volatility. Strong labor market data could reinforce expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve, supporting the US Dollar. On the Canadian side, upcoming employment numbers will serve as a barometer of the country's economic resilience. With Canada’s heavy reliance on commodities, stable or improving oil prices might further bolster the Canadian Dollar. However, the market sentiment of this pair, commonly known as the “Loonie,” will depend on the interplay of these fundamental drivers and their divergence.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD H4 chart indicates consolidation within the pair’s moderately bullish trend. USDCAD’s price has rebounded from recent support levels but faces resistance near the upper boundary of the current range. The Loonie’s price action demonstrates narrow candlesticks, signifying indecision among traders. A break above the resistance level at 1.4430 could signal further upward movement, while a failure could see the pair retesting lower support at 1.4350.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is hugging the middle band, indicating neutral momentum. A breakout above the upper band would confirm bullish continuation, while a drop below the lower band could suggest bearish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic is hovering around the overbought region near 77, suggesting potential exhaustion in the pair’s bullish bias. A downward cross may signal a short-term correction.
Volume: Volume levels remain subdued, suggesting a lack of strong conviction among traders at the current price range. A spike in volume could validate a directional breakout.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.4350 (key psychological support) and 1.4280 (lower Bollinger Band).
Resistance Levels: 1.4430 (key short-term resistance) and 1.4500 (higher target in case of a breakout).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/CAD analysis today on its H4 candle chart is in a phase of consolidation with potential for a breakout. Fundamental releases, including the NFP and Canadian employment data, are likely to set the tone for the pair's next major price movement. Technical indicators suggest cautious optimism for bulls but highlight the risk of a pullback from overbought conditions. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels alongside volume for breakout confirmation. Employing tight stop-losses is recommended due to the volatility expected around the upcoming economic data.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.10.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLD/USD (XAU/USD) Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold prices (XAU/USD) reflect mixed sentiment as traders prepare for the release of the US Monthly Treasury Statement. A higher-than-expected surplus could strengthen the US Dollar, pressuring Gold lower, while a deficit may boost Gold as a safe-haven asset. Broader market drivers, including concerns about inflation and central bank monetary policy, continue to influence Gold's bullish momentum. The inverse correlation between the USD and Gold remains critical to monitor as today's news unfolds.


Price Action:
Gold price is moving in a well-defined bullish trend within an ascending channel on the H4 time frame. The price is currently testing the upper region of the Bollinger Bands, indicating strong buyer momentum. While a slight pullback is visible, the price remains comfortably above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with bulls eyeing a potential breakout near the 0% Fibonacci level for continued upward movement.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: Gold’s price remains in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, touching the upper line, which signals strong bullish momentum. The bands are slightly widening, suggesting increased volatility, while the recent pullback offers potential for buyers to re-enter.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 66.04, hovering near overbought levels but not yet signaling an overextension. The indicator confirms bullish strength, but traders should be cautious of potential consolidation or minor corrections.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is near overbought territory at 70.62, which suggests the bullish move could slow down temporarily. Any crossover in this region might indicate short-term pullbacks or consolidation before a continuation.
Volume: Volume levels remain steady, aligning with the ongoing upward trend. Traders should watch for any divergence between price and volume, which could signal weakening momentum.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The first support level lies at 2666.20, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and holds as a critical bullish barrier. Below this, 2648.52 provides stronger support within the ascending channel, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Resistance: Resistance is situated at 2687.78, near the current high and the 0% Fibonacci level, acting as a short-term ceiling for buyers. A breakout above this could drive prices toward the channel’s upper boundary near 2709.62, opening the door for further gains.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Gold USD (XAU/USD) on the H4 chart remains in a strong bullish structure, supported by the ascending channel and key Fibonacci levels. While technical indicators suggest overbought conditions, the price action supports the possibility of further upside, especially if buyers manage to push past the immediate resistance. Traders should keep a close eye on today’s US Treasury Statement, as it could introduce significant volatility. Caution is advised if the price breaks below the 23.6% Fibonacci level, which could signal a bearish correction.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GOLD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GOLDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.13.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDJPY Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.14.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair is being influenced by contrasting economic conditions today. On the Japanese side, economic data highlights a mixed scenario, with reports from the Bank of Japan indicating potential optimism, as the Eco Watchers Index reflects moderate consumer sentiment improvements. However, attention remains focused on whether the BOJ will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. For the USD, key economic data, including the Core PPI and comments from a Federal Reserve official, could steer the dollar's strength. With both currencies impacted by varied data, traders should expect choppy price movements as the market digests the economic updates.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, USDJPY is trading within a tight range, showing slight consolidation near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 157.50. The price recently moved upward, with five consecutive bullish candles indicating modest buying momentum. Despite this, the USD JPY pair lacks strong directional bias, suggesting traders are awaiting further catalysts to confirm the next trend direction. The movement between the Fibonacci level and the middle Bollinger Band signifies a phase of indecision in the market.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The USDJPY price has recently moved from the lower Bollinger Band toward the middle band, supported by five consecutive bullish candles. However, the price has yet to establish a sharp bearish or bullish trend. The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands indicates a period of low volatility, which often precedes significant price movement.
Volume: The volume indicator shows declining activity, reinforcing the market's indecision phase. A breakout from current levels, accompanied by a volume increase, will be critical to confirm directional movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram displays decreasing momentum, with the MACD line hovering just below the signal line. This suggests a weakening bullish trend and the potential for a bearish crossover if momentum does not improve.
RVI (Relative Vigor Index): The RVI shows a mildly bearish reading, with the indicator lines sloping downward. This signals caution as the bears might gain strength, especially if the USD-JPY pair fails to sustain support at current levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 156.30, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and serves as a critical level for maintaining bullish sentiment. A break below this level may lead the USD JPY price toward the 155.70 support, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and providing a stronger downside buffer.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 157.60, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and recent highs. A breakout above this level could open the door for further bullish momentum toward 158.20, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY pair on the H4 chart indicates consolidation near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, with bullish momentum slowing as indicated by the MACD and volume metrics. Traders should watch for a breakout above 157.60 or a breakdown below 156.30 to confirm the next directional bias. The upcoming economic releases for both USD and JPY could serve as catalysts for these movements.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.14.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBP/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.15.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD price action is heavily influenced by economic indicators and monetary policies in both the UK and the US. As for the GBP/USD news analysis today, we focus on US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which serves as a key gauge of inflation. A higher-than-expected CPI could strengthen the USD as traders anticipate further tightening from the Federal Reserve. In the UK, speeches from Bank of England policymakers, alongside inflation and housing market data, are shaping sentiment. These fundamental drivers suggest heightened volatility for the pair’s bias in the near term.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD technical analysis today on its H4 chart shows a potential reversal after forming a recent low around 1.2140. The price is consolidating and testing resistance near 1.2210, which aligns with previous price levels. The candlestick patterns indicate indecision, with neither buyers nor sellers dominating at this stage. A breakout above 1.2230 could confirm bullish momentum, while a move below 1.2140 would signal further downside risk.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are above the price candles, indicating GBPUSD’s bearish trend is still in play. However, if the dots flip below the candles, it may suggest a trend reversal.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is negative, with the MACD line below the signal line. This confirms bearish momentum, although the histogram shows signs of convergence, hinting at a potential reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 43.91, which is slightly bearish but approaching neutral territory. This indicates a lack of strong momentum, and a move above 50 would suggest a bullish shift.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: The immediate support level is at 1.2140, with a further strong support zone around 1.2100.
Resistance Levels: The key resistance levels are 1.2210, followed by 1.2230. A break above these levels could open the path toward 1.2300.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD H4 outlook today reflects a market at a crossroads, with technical indicators showing signs of a possible reversal but still leaning bearish. Traders should monitor the US CPI data and Bank of England commentary for fundamental catalysts that could push the pair in either direction. From a technical perspective, a break above 1.2230 would signal bullish continuation, while failure to hold above 1.2140 could lead to further declines. Setting appropriate risk management measures, including stop-loss orders, is crucial given the pair's sensitivity to economic events.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.15.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.16.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUDUSD pair reflects the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, the US Dollar is expected to face mixed influences from a series of key economic data releases, including Retail Sales and Initial Jobless Claims. These indicators will provide insight into consumer spending and labor market conditions, both of which are critical for evaluating the overall health of the US economy. Additionally, the speech by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams might provide subtle clues regarding future monetary policy, impacting USD volatility. On the other hand, the AUD is being shaped by employment data and consumer inflation expectations. While the Australian labor market remains relatively stable, heightened inflation expectations could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary outlook. These dynamics make the AUD USD pair a potential hotspot for volatility.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, AUD/USD is currently in a bullish trend. However, after touching the first resistance level at 0.6246, the price has retreated, forming three bearish candles out of the last four. This suggests a weakening bullish momentum as the pair consolidates near the resistance zone. The current price action is testing support near 0.6211, with further downside risk if bearish sentiment persists.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price has recently moved closer to the middle Bollinger Band, indicating consolidation after a bullish push. The narrowing Bands suggest a decrease in volatility, which may precede a breakout. The price remains above the lower band, keeping the bullish structure intact.
Volumes: Trading volumes show a steady decline, reflecting reduced market participation or hesitation near the resistance level. This aligns with the retreat from 0.6246, signaling a potential pause in bullish activity.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line. However, the diminishing histogram bars suggest weakening bullish momentum. Traders should watch for a potential crossover as an early sign of bearish pressure.
RVI (Relative Vigor Index): The RVI is beginning to slope downward, suggesting a shift in momentum towards bearishness. This indicator confirms the bearish candles seen in recent price action and signals caution for buyers.

Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.6211, which aligns with a recent price consolidation area and the middle Bollinger Band. Secondary support is found at 0.6193, corresponding to the 100% Fibonacci retracement level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.6246, coinciding with the first resistance zone where the price has recently retraced. Further resistance is located at 0.6272, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and recent highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD pair on the H4 chart shows that while the bullish trend remains intact, the retreat from the resistance level at 0.6246 and the appearance of bearish candles suggest a potential shift in sentiment. The weakening MACD momentum and declining RVI emphasize caution, especially if the pair fails to hold above 0.6211. Traders should monitor today's key US economic data and Australian developments, as these could introduce significant volatility.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.16.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair is heavily influenced by economic reports and central bank policies from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. The Eurozone's current economic focus is on inflation metrics and trade balances. With the ECB's monetary policy still leaning towards cautious tightening, any further increase in interest rates could support the euro. Meanwhile, the USD faces upcoming releases related to residential building permits and factory output, which will offer insights into the strength of the US economy. Given the global economic outlook, the USD is expected to hold steady or show signs of further weakness if the data disappoints.


Price Action:
The EURUSD chart for the H4 timeframe shows a clear bearish trend over the past few weeks. The EUR USD price has struggled to maintain above the mid-Bollinger Band, with an overall downward pressure indicated by the tightness of the Bollinger Bands. Despite a brief return to the middle band, the bearish candles indicate that sellers are still in control. A trendline running through the chart highlights a possible continuation of the downward pressure. The market has tested key support areas without much follow-through in price action, indicating a potential break or consolidation soon.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have tightened, indicating that volatility in EUR/USD is decreasing. The price has been fluctuating between the middle and lower bands. After moving from the lower band, the price has struggled to hold above the middle band, indicating that the market may not have sufficient momentum to push higher, and could be preparing for another dip.
Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse): The Parabolic SAR is showing spots above the candles, signaling a bearish trend. This is consistent with the ongoing price action, which suggests that the market is likely to continue in its bearish direction unless a reversal occurs with stronger momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI currently sits at 49.94, suggesting that the EURUSD is in a neutral zone, neither overbought nor oversold. This indicates that there is still room for further downward movement or an eventual reversal, depending on market conditions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is showing a very slight negative divergence with the histogram below the zero line, indicating a weakening bearish momentum. However, the EUR-USD price is still below the signal line, suggesting that the bearish trend could persist unless a stronger bullish crossover occurs.
%R (Williams Percent Range): The Williams Percent Range (%R) sits at -68.43, indicating that the price is approaching oversold conditions but has not yet reached the extreme levels. This suggests potential for a reversal if buying pressure intensifies, but for now, the market remains largely bearish.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The immediate support is at 1.01773, which has acted as a significant level for EURUSD price consolidation in recent weeks. A breakdown below this level could open the door for further downside toward 1.0100.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is around 1.03200, with further resistance seen at 1.03435, which coincides with recent highs and the middle Bollinger Band. A clear break above this level could signal a potential shift to a more neutral or bullish bias.


Conclusion and Consideration:
EUR/USD continues to face a challenging market environment, as the EUR USD pair remains within a clear bearish trend. The technical indicators point towards potential further downside, but the tightening Bollinger Bands, coupled with a neutral RSI, suggest that the market is in a consolidation phase. Traders should watch the key support levels at 1.01773 and 1.0100, as a break below could signal a deeper bearish move. The upcoming data from both the Eurozone and the US will be crucial in determining the next market direction, so caution is advised.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.17.2025