Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.25.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is expected to experience volatility today due to multiple speeches from Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak on economic conditions, potentially providing insights into future monetary policy. If their tone is hawkish, the USD could strengthen, putting upward pressure on the USD-JPY pair. Additionally, key US data, including housing prices and consumer confidence figures, could influence market sentiment. On the Japanese Yen side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has released the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI), an important inflation indicator. Stronger-than-expected data may lead to JPY appreciation, reinforcing the bearish trend in USD vs JPY. However, if the data is weak, expectations of continued BoJ dovish policy could weaken the yen. Traders should remain cautious as market volatility is likely to increase throughout the session.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair continues to trade within a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing a key support zone at 149.300 - 148.800, which has historically provided significant buying interest. The recent price action suggests an attempt at a bounce, but Resistance Line 1 (150.500 - 150.800) is capping the upside. If the price fails to break above Resistance Line 1, further downside pressure could push the pair below 148.800, confirming a continuation of the bearish trend. However, if buyers gain control and break through Resistance Line 1, the next key level to watch is Resistance Line 2 (152.800), which aligns with the long-term descending trendline. Should the price successfully breach both resistance levels, upside targets include FE 61.8% at 152.900 and FE 100% at 153.800. Until a confirmed breakout occurs, the trend remains bearish.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last three dots are below the price, signaling a potential shift in momentum toward the upside. However, a break above Resistance Line 1 is necessary to confirm a reversal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 39.93, indicating that the pair remains in bearish territory. Although it is not yet oversold, a move above 50 would suggest a weakening downtrend and potential bullish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains negative, and the MACD line is below the signal line, confirming that bearish momentum is still in play. A bullish crossover is needed for signs of trend reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is at 81.27, placing it in the overbought zone. This suggests that the recent price bounce may be short-lived and that further selling pressure could emerge. A bearish crossover would reinforce the downtrend.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 149.300 - 148.800, which represents a significant historical level. If this zone fails to hold, the next key support is 148.315, potentially triggering further downside movement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 150.500 - 150.800 (Resistance Line 1), a key short-term barrier. A break above this level would indicate bullish momentum. The next major resistance is at 152.800 (Resistance Line 2), which must be breached for a full trend reversal. Additional upside targets include FE 61.8% at 152.900 and FE 100% at 53.800.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY pair remains in a strong downtrend, currently testing a crucial support zone at 149.300 - 148.800. If the price fails to break above Resistance Line 1 (150.500 - 150.800), the bearish trend is likely to continue, potentially pushing the price below 148.800. However, if buyers manage to break above Resistance Line 1, a short-term recovery could be in play, with the next major test at Resistance Line 2 (152.800). With multiple FOMC speeches and key US economic releases scheduled today, traders should prepare for potential market volatility. A hawkish Fed stance could strengthen the USD, while strong JPY fundamentals could keep the pair under selling pressure. Monitoring RSI, MACD, and support/resistance levels will be crucial for confirming the next move.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.25.2025

 

[FXGlory]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) remains sensitive to broad macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment, as the cryptocurrency market shows steady institutional and retail interest. In today’s session, the focus will be on the USD side of the BTCUSD pair, with multiple economic releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and the Wards Auto data. Positive US data can strengthen the dollar, potentially pressuring BTC if risk appetite wanes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamental drivers include ongoing discussions about its upcoming halving cycle and overall adoption trends, which continue to shape the long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.


Price Action:
Over the weekend, BTCUSD showed a notable correction, moving from 78k to 92k on the H4 chart but failing to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This inability to push higher suggests that bullish momentum may be pausing, and the pair could revisit the 38.2% or 23.6% Fib levels if downside pressure intensifies. Price action has temporarily stalled near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that immediate upside might be capped. Traders are watching closely for any bearish follow-through that could send the price back toward the 0% Fib level in the coming sessions.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on the BTCUSD H4 chart show that the price has recently touched the upper band, signaling a potential overextension. Historically, price retracements often follow upper band touches, especially if accompanied by lower volume or weakening momentum. A break back toward the middle band would indicate a corrective phase, aligning with the possibility of retesting lower Fibonacci levels. Should volatility increase, a close outside the bands could confirm a more decisive breakout or breakdown.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be hovering near the upper threshold of neutral territory, reflecting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions. This position suggests that while bullish momentum was strong enough to push BTCUSD to 92k, it did not hit a level typically associated with a clear reversal. A downturn in the RSI below the midpoint would reinforce a potential bearish pullback. Conversely, a sustained move above 70 would indicate strong bullish pressure and might invalidate the short-term corrective bias.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently positive, showing that the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicative of ongoing bullish momentum. However, the histogram bars have started to shorten, suggesting a possible slowdown in buying pressure. If the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it would be an early sign of bearish momentum gaining traction. Traders should monitor this indicator closely for confirmation of any trend shift on the H4 timeframe.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, offering the first defense for the bulls. A deeper support can be found near the 0% Fib level, which could become a target if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around the 92k region. A break above this zone may expose further resistance near the 95k handle, a region of previous price consolidation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In this technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for BTCUSD H4, the current price action suggests a cautious stance is warranted. While the bullish momentum brought Bitcoin’s price from 78k to 92k, the failure to clear the 50% Fib level points to a potential pullback. Key economic data from the US could drive volatility for BTCUSD, as shifts in risk sentiment often impact the cryptocurrency market. Traders should keep a close eye on the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD for clearer directional cues, alongside upcoming US economic releases that may influence the dollar side of the pair.



Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.03.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUDUSD pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens ahead of key events today. The Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) Williams is scheduled to speak, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions, potentially impacting USD volatility. Additionally, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is expected to show improvement, reinforcing USD strength.
On the Australian Dollar (AUD) side, the market will closely monitor the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser’s speech, as any hawkish remarks could support AUD. Furthermore, key data releases such as the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Retail Sales (forecast 0.3% vs. previous -0.1%), and Current Account (-11.8B vs. -14.1B) could impact AUD’s short-term trajectory. Should retail sales exceed expectations, we may see a temporary boost in AUD, but bearish sentiment prevails given current technical conditions.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD pair has been in a sharp bearish phase, trading within the lower Bollinger Band before entering a correction phase. This corrective movement led the price back toward the midline of the Bollinger Bands, assisting the RSI in recovering from oversold conditions. However, after testing the midline resistance, the pair has resumed its bearish wave, reflecting persistent downward momentum. The MACD indicator also suggests a continuation of the downtrend, as the histogram remains in negative territory with bearish divergence strengthening.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price initially declined sharply, remaining near the lower band before attempting a recovery. The midline acted as resistance, rejecting further upside and resuming the bearish wave. The continued expansion of the bands indicates high volatility, favoring further downside movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, with a bearish histogram indicating ongoing selling pressure. This setup suggests that the bearish trend could persist unless a bullish crossover occurs.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI rebounded from oversold territory but is now struggling near 36.83, still indicating weak momentum. If the RSI moves below 30, it could signal further selling pressure and potential downside continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The AUDUSD pair faces key resistance levels at 0.62530, aligning with the midline of the Bollinger Bands, followed by 0.62350, marking a recent swing high, and 0.62300, a psychological level that previously acted as support but has now turned into resistance.
Resistance: On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.61700, reflecting recent lows, followed by 0.61400, a stronger historical level, and 0.61150, which serves as a major support zone; a break below this level could trigger further downside momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD H4 analysis indicates that the pair remains in a strong bearish trend, with technical indicators such as the MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands aligning for further downside movement. The rejection from the Bollinger Band’s midline confirms ongoing selling pressure, while the MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing bearish momentum. Traders should watch for potential volatility due to upcoming USD and AUD economic releases, especially the FOMC speech and Australian Retail Sales data. If AUD fundamentals disappoint, the pair could retest 0.61700 and potentially lower support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.04.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis – 03.05.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF currency pair is currently being influenced by key economic releases from both the US and Switzerland. Today, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released, providing insights into inflation trends. A higher-than-expected CPI figure may strengthen the Swiss Franc (CHF) as it could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Conversely, a weaker CPI reading could put pressure on the CHF, allowing USDCHF to rebound. For the US Dollar (USD), several high-impact events are scheduled, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, and a speech by US President Donald Trump. The ADP employment report serves as an early indicator of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, and strong job growth figures could support the USD. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI will gauge the strength of the US service sector, and Trump's speech could bring unexpected volatility depending on any policy announcements. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations due to these scheduled events.


Price Action:
The USD/CHF pair has reached a major support zone at 0.8890, which coincides with the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, a descending trendline support, and a previous horizontal support level. The price briefly dipped below this level but showed signs of buying interest, suggesting a possible reversal. If buyers step in, the pair could target the next Fibonacci level and descending resistance trendline at 0.8960 - 0.9000. However, if the price breaks below 0.8865, it could trigger further downside momentum, potentially leading to new lows.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 29.16, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests that the selling pressure might be weakening, and a potential reversal could be near. However, a confirmation through price action is needed before entering long positions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is negative at -0.002211, with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the decreasing bearish momentum suggests that selling pressure is slowing down. A bullish crossover of the MACD line above the signal line would strengthen the case for a reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic (5,3,3) is at 27.11, approaching oversold levels. This suggests that the downward momentum is fading, and a bullish crossover in the oscillator would be a strong indication of an upward correction. Traders should watch for a crossover above the 20 level for confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.8890, which aligns with the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, descending trendline support, and previous horizontal support. A break below this level could open the door for further downside toward 0.8865.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.8960, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a descending resistance trendline. If bullish momentum continues, the next major resistance lies at 0.9000, which is a key psychological level and a trendline resistance zone.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CHF pair on the H4 timeframe is currently testing a strong support zone at 0.8890, with multiple technical confluences suggesting a potential bullish reversal. RSI and Stochastic indicate oversold conditions, while MACD shows weakening bearish momentum, which supports the possibility of an upward correction. If the price holds above 0.8890, traders can look for a rebound toward 0.8960 and 0.9000 as potential resistance levels. However, a break below 0.8865 could indicate further downside continuation. With high-impact economic events such as Swiss CPI, US ADP employment data, and ISM Services PMI, traders should expect increased volatility. Trump's speech could also introduce unexpected market movements, making it crucial to manage risk appropriately. Waiting for confirmation through price action signals before entering trades is advisable.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.05.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD is currently influenced by several high-impact events, including Europe’s new purchase orders data and foreign trade figures, as well as a scheduled speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Traders are closely monitoring Euro area Employment and GDP releases for additional insight into the region’s economic strength. Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces potential volatility from multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) member speeches and labor market data (NFP, Unemployment Rate), which could shape market sentiment on monetary policy. Overall, these EUR USD daily chart technical and fundamental analysis factors suggest heightened price action and possible shifts in momentum on the H4 timeframe.


Price Action
The EUR USD H4 chart shows a strong initial upswing since the market opened this week, followed by three consecutive red candles indicating a possible correction. If the bearish movement extends, price action may test the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement, with potential deeper pullbacks toward the 50% and 61.8% levels. This EURUSD daily technical analysis suggests traders should monitor these key retracement zones for signs of reversal or continuation, as the pair’s momentum could shift rapidly in response to ongoing fundamental developments.


Key Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has moved near overbought territory following the recent sharp rally, signaling that the bullish momentum may be losing steam. With the last three bearish candles, RSI is gradually easing, suggesting a potential cooldown in buying pressure. However, a sustained move below the 50 mark could confirm a deeper correction for EURUSD price action.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains above the signal line, reflecting the recent bullish surge on the EUR-USD H4 chart. Nonetheless, the histogram is starting to narrow, indicating that upward momentum may be slowing. A crossover below the signal line could reinforce a short-term bearish correction scenario.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic readings are hovering in high territory, supporting the notion that EUR USD could be ripe for a pullback. The oscillator’s downward slope from overbought levels suggests a likely pause in the bullish trend. A clear break below the 80 line often points to growing bearish pressure.


Support and Resistance
Support: The support zone, defined by the 23.6%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 1.0680, 1.0640, and 1.0600 respectively, forms a layered cushion where buyers may step in during corrections. A bounce off these levels would reinforce bullish sentiment, while a break could signal a shift toward stronger bearish momentum.
Resistance: Resistance is observed at 1.0750, the recent swing high, and at 1.0800, a key psychological barrier, where selling pressure has previously emerged. A successful break above these levels could validate further bullish momentum, whereas failure to breach them may lead to profit taking and a potential retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration
EUR/USD appears poised for a potential corrective move on the H4 chart, with fundamental news and technical signals aligning to indicate caution. Traders should keep an eye on key Fibonacci levels, as well as RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator readings for confirmation of further downside or a bullish continuation. The upcoming Eurozone data and multiple US FOMC statements could amplify market volatility, so monitoring both technical and fundamental factors is essential.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.07.2025