Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

EURCAD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EURCAD pair is influenced by economic releases from both the Eurozone and Canada. The Eurozone will see the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the broader ZEW Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone, which are indicators of investor sentiment and economic expectations. A higher reading might support the Euro, signaling economic optimism in the region. For Canada, there is a significant release of inflation data, including CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Core CPI m/m. With the potential for inflation to come in lower than expected (-0.7% m/m versus 0.0% forecast), this could indicate a cooling economy, possibly weakening the CAD. Traders will be looking for these economic prints to provide direction for the EURCAD pair.


Price Action:
The EURCAD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently experiencing a bullish trend. The price recently broke above the Ichimoku Cloud, a key technical indicator, signaling a shift to a bullish market sentiment. As the price continues to trend higher, it has cleared key resistance levels, indicating that the buyers are in control. A possible continuation of this upward movement is expected, given that the RSI remains below 70, indicating that the market has not yet reached overbought conditions. The recent price action shows an upward momentum, with minor retracements being bought into, suggesting a strong bullish bias.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has recently broken above the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a bullish market condition. The Chikou Span is above the price, and the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines are both pointing upwards, reinforcing the positive outlook.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 64.74, comfortably below the 70 overbought threshold. This suggests there is still room for further bullish movement without entering overbought territory. As the market remains in healthy bullish conditions, the RSI confirms that the momentum is still positive and that a continuation of the trend is likely.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The lower points of the recent candles around 1.48677 and 1.48555 serve as the immediate support level.
Resistance: The most recent resistance levels around the current price locate around 1.49360 and 1.50000 (psychological level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The technical analysis of EURCAD suggests a bullish outlook, supported by the recent break above the Ichimoku Cloud, the healthy RSI reading, and the overall upward price action. The pair is likely to continue its bullish trend as long as the price remains above the identified support levels, with potential target resistance at 1.49360 and 1.49740. However, given the upcoming economic releases today, including inflation data from Canada and sentiment indices from the Eurozone, there could be increased volatility. Traders should keep an eye on these data points, as any surprises could influence the direction of the pair in the short term.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.21.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.23.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, USDCAD traders will be paying close attention to key economic indicators and events affecting both the USD and CAD. On the CAD side, Statistics Canada will release Core Retail Sales data, a primary gauge of consumer spending. Positive retail figures could bolster CAD strength, as they reflect healthy economic activity. Additionally, the World Economic Forum in Davos might feature remarks from Canadian policymakers, potentially influencing the market.
For the USD, initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor are scheduled, serving as an essential indicator of labor market health. Lower-than-expected claims could reinforce USD strength. Additionally, developments in energy inventories and global crude oil prices will significantly impact CAD due to Canada's reliance on the energy sector. Lastly, the World Economic Forum could spark USD volatility through central bank commentary.


Price Action:
The USDCAD pair has been in a bullish trend on the H4 timeframe but exhibits fluctuating behavior between bullish and bearish movements. The USD/CAD price has been oscillating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Currently, the price is inching toward the 23.6% level, indicating potential further bullish movement. The USD CAD price has also rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band and is now aligning closer to the middle band, signifying improving bullish momentum.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increasing volatility. After testing the lower band, the price has moved toward the middle band, reflecting growing bullish sentiment. A sustained move above the middle band could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 50.36, sitting in neutral territory. This indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for the USDCAD price to move higher. An upward push beyond 60 would signal strengthening bullish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains slightly negative but shows signs of recovery. The MACD line is approaching the signal line, suggesting that bullish momentum is building. A crossover into positive territory would confirm a bullish reversal.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.4320, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the lower Bollinger Band. A further drop would find stronger support at 1.4250, which coincides with recent lows and a critical psychological level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.4385, situated at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and close to the middle Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level would target the next significant resistance at 1.4450, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band and recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 chart analysis suggests the bullish trend remains intact, supported by key indicators such as Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD. However, fluctuations between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci levels reflect short-term uncertainty. Traders should watch for a break above 1.4385 for bullish confirmation, while a dip below 1.4320 could signal bearish risks. Given today’s upcoming CAD Retail Sales data and USD labor market figures, volatility is likely. Traders should remain cautious of potential sharp moves. Energy inventory releases could also influence CAD due to oil market sensitivity.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.



FXGlory
01.23.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.24.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD), a popular forex pair due to its volatility and liquidity. Today’s economic calendar highlights several key events that could influence GBP USD forex pair. On the USD side, PMI figures for both manufacturing and services, along with home sales data, provide critical insights into the economic outlook. Robust PMI readings could strengthen the dollar by signaling economic expansion. Meanwhile, the UK releases include consumer confidence and PMI data, which are crucial for understanding market sentiment toward the Pound. Positive GfK consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI data could provide a boost to GBP, while weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on its performance.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair has been trading within a slight bullish channel, gradually climbing from its lower boundary toward the upper boundary. Currently, the GBP-USD price has bounced from the middle Bollinger Band and reached the upper band, though the last two candlesticks are red, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation. The overall price movement reflects steady upward momentum, but bearish candlesticks suggest sellers are testing the upper boundary's strength.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicate a mild bullish trend, with the GBP/USD price moving from the middle band toward the upper band. The last two bearish candles after touching the upper band suggest a possible retracement toward the middle band or consolidation around current levels.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR shows an upward bias, with its last three dots positioned below the candles, supporting the ongoing bullish trend. However, traders should monitor closely for any reversal in the SAR placement, as it could signal a weakening trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 58.63, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish momentum. It indicates that the market still has room to rise without being overbought, though the slight decline reflects the GBP USD pair’s recent bearish candlesticks.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.2280, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band and a recent consolidation area. Further support lies at 1.2200, the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a psychological level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.2350, coinciding with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A stronger resistance is at 1.2400, aligning with recent highs and acting as a psychological barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 chart is showing a gradual bullish trend within an ascending channel, supported by technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR. However, the red candles near the upper Bollinger Band suggest a possible pullback or consolidation. RSI readings indicate room for further upward movement, though traders should remain cautious of potential reversals.
Today’s news releases, particularly the US and UK PMI figures, along with consumer confidence data, could introduce significant volatility. A strong PMI from the US could pressure GBP-USD lower, while upbeat UK data may provide further support for the Pound. Traders are advised to closely monitor the upcoming news and consider key support and resistance levels when making trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.24.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.28.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUDUSD currency pair reflects the exchange rate between the Australian Dollar (AUD) and the US Dollar (USD). Today, the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released, showing quarterly growth of 0.3%, slightly above the forecast of 0.2%. On an annual basis, CPI stands at 2.5%, aligning with expectations and indicating a steady inflationary environment. The Trimmed Mean CPI, which excludes volatile items, reported 0.6%, slightly below the forecast of 0.8%, suggesting subdued core inflation.
For the USD, critical data releases include Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders later in the day, with expectations of 0.4% and 0.3% growth respectively. Additionally, the CB Consumer Confidence Index, projected at 105.7, will provide insights into consumer sentiment, potentially impacting the USD’s performance. This combination of economic data points may lead to increased volatility for the AUDUSD pair.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD H4 chart indicates that the pair is currently in a correction phase following a strong bearish wave. The correction trend line has been broken, signaling the potential continuation of the broader bearish trend. Price action shows a rejection from resistance near 0.63000, with the pair now consolidating below this level. Recent candles indicate weakening bullish momentum, and sellers appear to be regaining control.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is displaying a weak bearish divergence, currently at 48, indicating that bearish momentum is building but is not yet overextended. This supports the view of a potential continuation of the bearish wave.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram confirms bearish momentum, with a crossover below the signal line and increasing negative histogram bars. This aligns with the trendline break and suggests further downside potential.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 0.62665, 0.62380, and 0.62300. These levels will be critical for assessing the strength of bearish pressure.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 0.63000, 0.63235, and 0.63520. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD pair on the H4 chart is in a correction phase, but the bearish trend appears likely to resume, supported by the broken corrective trendline and confirmation from the RSI and MACD. Traders should monitor key support levels for potential bearish continuation and watch for a rejection at resistance levels to validate the downtrend. Upcoming US economic data, particularly Durable Goods Orders and CB Consumer Confidence, could introduce additional volatility. Caution is advised given the mixed inflation data from Australia and the potential for USD strength later in the session.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.28.2025

 

[FXGlory]

SILVERUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.30.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Silver (XAG/USD) remains a key asset in the commodities market, influenced by economic data, geopolitical risks, and inflationary trends. Today, the US economic calendar includes GDP growth figures, jobless claims, and inflation reports, which will play a significant role in shaping USD strength and, consequently, silver prices. Strong GDP data could boost the dollar, leading to downward pressure on silver, while weak figures may drive silver prices higher as investors seek safe-haven assets. Additionally, the pending home sales report and natural gas inventory data may impact overall market sentiment, influencing silver demand. Given the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions, traders are closely watching for clues on future interest rate adjustments, which could affect the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.


Price Action
Silver’s H4 chart analysis suggests that the price action has been bullish in recent sessions. The price recently broke above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift in momentum. However, it has reached the 0% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a strong resistance zone multiple times this month. If silver fails to break and sustain above this level, a retracement towards 30.50 or 30.17 is possible. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above resistance could lead to a continuation towards 31.00 and beyond. The current candles indicate strong bullish pressure, but overbought conditions in momentum indicators suggest a possible correction before further upside.


Key Technical Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a potential bullish continuation. The green cloud below the price suggests a supportive trend, while the 0% Fibonacci level remains a key resistance. If silver fails to break higher, a pullback towards the cloud’s upper boundary could occur before another attempt to rally.
Adaptive Moving Average (Period 9, Fast EMA 2, Slow EMA 30): Silver’s candles have crossed above the moving average line, indicating strong bullish momentum. The price action remains above the EMA 30, suggesting that the short-term trend remains positive. As long as silver stays above this moving average, the bullish outlook remains intact.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI is currently at 62.33, indicating bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. This suggests that there is still room for further upside before reaching exhaustion. However, traders should watch for potential divergence or a move above 70, which could indicate overbought conditions and a potential reversal.
Williams %R (14): The Williams %R indicator is at -12.31, signaling that silver is nearing overbought conditions. This suggests that while bullish momentum is strong, a short-term pullback or consolidation may occur before another upward push.


Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance: The first key resistance is at 30.88, aligning with the 0% Fibonacci retracement, a strong barrier this month. A breakout could lead to 31.00, a psychological resistance, with further upside toward 31.20 - 31.50.
Support: Immediate support lies at 30.50 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 30.17 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). If bearish pressure increases, 29.84 (50% Fibonacci retracement) will be a crucial level to watch.


Conclusion and Consideration
Silver (SILVERUSD) on the H4 chart shows a bullish trend, supported by a break above the Ichimoku cloud, a moving average crossover, and strong RSI momentum. However, the Fibonacci 0% resistance at 30.88 has held firm, making it a key level to watch. If silver breaks above this resistance, a rally towards 31.00 or higher is likely. Conversely, failure to break could lead to profit-taking and a retracement towards 30.50 or lower.
Upcoming US economic data releases, particularly GDP growth and jobless claims, could introduce volatility. A stronger USD may weigh on silver prices, while weaker data could support further gains. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for SILVER/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on SILVERUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.30.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLD (XAU/USD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.31.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish trend as investors anticipate key US economic data releases today. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a crucial inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, along with Personal Income and Spending reports. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the US dollar, potentially putting pressure on gold. However, growing expectations of a dovish Fed stance and persistent global economic uncertainties continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman’s speech could provide further clues on future monetary policy, influencing Gold/USD’s next move.


Price Action
The H4 timeframe for gold (XAU/USD) reveals a clear bullish price structure, trading within an ascending channel. The price action consistently forms higher highs and higher lows, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Recent movement shows gold attempting to break above a key psychological level, while a rejection at the upper trendline may trigger a short-term pullback. Consolidation above this level could provide the momentum needed for further upside movement.


Key Technical Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud: The price remains well above the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment. The Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line) are trending upwards, confirming continued momentum. The cloud’s support zone aligns with recent consolidation levels, suggesting strong demand at lower levels.

Volumes: Buying interest remains strong, with volume spikes accompanying bullish moves. This confirms active participation in the uptrend. A sudden decrease in volume on further rallies may indicate exhaustion, warranting caution for potential pullbacks.
Bulls Indicator: The Bulls(13) oscillator remains positive, reflecting persistent buying pressure. The elevated levels indicate that buyers still dominate, but a declining reading while price stays high could hint at a weakening bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index - 14): The RSI is currently at 71.16, placing gold near overbought territory. While this supports strong bullish momentum, it also increases the likelihood of a short-term retracement or consolidation before another rally. A move above extreme levels may signal trend exhaustion.


Support and Resistance
Support: The ascending channel’s lower boundary at $2,750-$2,760 serves as a strong support zone, aligning with recent retracement levels.
Resistance: The $2,800 psychological level remains a key resistance; a breakout above could drive further bullish momentum toward $2,825-$2,850.


Conclusion and Consideration
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a strong bullish trend, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud, rising RSI, and increasing volume. The ascending channel continues to define price movement, with bulls in control. However, overbought conditions suggest a potential pullback before the next leg higher. Today’s US PCE inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary may introduce market volatility, influencing gold’s short-term trajectory. Traders should monitor the gold price reactions at key levels and manage risk accordingly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.31.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.03.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently facing downward pressure amid key economic data releases. The latest Melbourne Institute CPI report is expected to provide insights into consumer inflation, which directly impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, Australian Retail Sales and ANZ Job Advertisements reports will give a clearer picture of consumer spending and employment trends. Any signs of weakening economic activity could lead to further AUD depreciation. On the USD side, the market is watching S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will provide a broad economic outlook for the United States. Strong manufacturing data could boost the USD, leading to further AUDUSD declines. Additionally, Federal Reserve official Raphael Bostic's speech might provide hints on future US interest rate policies, influencing market sentiment.


Price Action:
After the market opened, AUD/USD recorded a significant gap down, with price opening at a much lower level. The first few candles show two consecutive large red candles, indicating a strong bearish movement. This suggests increased selling pressure, likely fueled by fundamental catalysts favoring the USD. The price has broken below a key support zone, confirming strong bearish momentum.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The AUDUSD price is trading well below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a strong bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen (red line) and Kijun-sen (blue line) have crossed downward, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Additionally, the future cloud is turning red, suggesting continued downside pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 25.76, deep in the oversold territory. This signals that the AUD USD pair is experiencing extreme selling pressure. However, it also suggests that a potential short-term correction or bounce might occur if buyers step in.
Volume: There is a notable increase in volume, supporting the strong bearish move. The high trading volume confirms that sellers are dominant in the market. However, if volume starts declining, it could indicate exhaustion of the bearish trend.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Support level is seen around 0.6090, where price may stabilize; a break below could drive it toward 0.6050.
Resistance: Resistance level is near 0.6220, the previous breakdown level, with further resistance at 0.6285, aligning with the Ichimoku Cloud.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD H4 technical analysis indicates a strong bearish trend, supported by key technical indicators like Ichimoku Cloud, RSI, and Volume Analysis. Fundamentally, the strong USD data and weak AUD economic outlook are further driving the AUD-USD pair downward. While RSI suggests oversold conditions, the overall market sentiment remains bearish unless a significant catalyst reverses the trend. Traders should closely monitor upcoming Retail Sales and PMI data, which could introduce volatility. If economic data continues to favor the USD, further downside movement is likely. However, a technical bounce from oversold conditions is also possible.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.03.2025

 

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD forex pair is currently facing significant market influences, driven by both New Zealand and U.S. economic data releases. Today, key U.S. reports, including the JOLTS Job Openings (expected 8.01M, prior 8.10M) and Factory Orders m/m (-0.7% expected, previous -0.4%), will provide insight into the U.S. labor market and manufacturing sector. Additionally, speeches by FOMC members Bostic and Daly could impact USD sentiment, particularly if they hint at future monetary policy changes.
On the New Zealand side, the GDT Price Index (forecasted at 1.4%) and Employment Change q/q (-0.2% expected, prior -0.5%) will play a key role in determining NZD movement. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.1% from 4.8%, indicating potential labor market weakness, which may add bearish pressure on the NZD. Given these factors, the NZDUSD fx pair could experience increased volatility, with a higher probability of USD strength dominating the market.


Price Action:
After a strong bearish trend, NZD/USD has attempted a retest of the lost support zone in the form of a bullish correction. The price is currently trading around 0.56100, which aligns with an immediate resistance level. If this level holds, the NZD-USD pair could resume its downward movement. The recent price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish structure. A failure to break above 0.56570 would likely push the NZD USD pair toward lower support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 40, signaling a bearish trend. This indicates that sellers are in control, but there is still room for further downside before entering oversold territory. If the RSI drops below 30, it could suggest an oversold condition, potentially leading to a short-term reversal or consolidation.
Volume Indicator: The volume indicator is showing a positive reaction to the bearish phase, reinforcing the possibility of a continued downward trend. Increased selling volume suggests that bearish sentiment remains strong, reducing the likelihood of a sustained bullish correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 0.55430, 0.55160, and 0.55000. These levels could be considered as targets for the upcoming bearish wave.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 0.56100, 0.56570, and 0.57250. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD pair remains in a bearish structure, supported by key technical indicators, including RSI, volume, and MACD. The recent price action suggests that the bearish correction phase could continue if resistance at 0.56100 holds. Upcoming economic events, particularly U.S. labor market data and New Zealand employment reports, will play a crucial role in determining short-term price action. Traders should closely monitor resistance and support levels for potential breakout or continuation signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.04.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair remains influenced by key economic events scheduled for today. On the USD side, multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) members are set to speak, including Governor Philip Jefferson and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. These speeches may provide insights into future monetary policy, which could impact the U.S. dollar’s strength. Additionally, the U.S. trade balance report and ISM Services PMI data are expected, adding further volatility to the market. For the EUR, upcoming Industrial Production and Services PMI reports are crucial for gauging economic strength within the Eurozone. A stronger-than-expected print may support the euro, while weaker data could extend the current bearish pressure on EUR/USD. Given the hawkish Fed expectations, the U.S. dollar could maintain its dominance unless there is a significant shift in tone from policymakers.


Price Action Analysis:
After a gap occurred, the price reacted to its support level at 1.02194, forming several doji candles, indicating market indecision. Following the gap closure, the price has broken the first resistance trendline and is now heading toward the second and third resistance levels. The price is currently moving within a descending channel, and a confirmed break above the next trendline resistance could shift the market structure towards a more bullish scenario.


Key Technical Indicators:
Alligator Trend Line: The alligator lines are beginning to cross upwards, indicating a potential bullish trend. If the price sustains above this pattern, further upside movement could be confirmed.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 53.39, suggesting neutral momentum. However, if it moves beyond 60, a stronger bullish bias may develop.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is positioned at 1.02194, which was previously tested during the price drop before the gap closure.
Resistance: The immediate resistance levels stand at 1.03768, which aligns with the broken trendline, followed by the next major resistance at 1.04500 and 1.05095, forming a descending channel's upper boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 chart analysis shows a potential shift towards bullish momentum after breaking the first descending resistance trendline. However, upcoming fundamental events, including Fed speeches and key economic data, could significantly impact price movements. Traders should monitor resistance levels closely, as a breakout above 1.03768 could confirm further upside potential. Meanwhile, a failure to sustain gains might lead to another test of support at 1.02194.



Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.05.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.06.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USDCAD currency pair is experiencing volatility due to key economic events today. The US Dollar (USD) is impacted by multiple speeches from FOMC members Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Christopher Waller, which may provide monetary policy signals affecting market sentiment. If their comments are hawkish, the USD could strengthen, while dovish remarks may lead to USD weakness. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, and Productivity Reports will offer insights into the US labor market, potentially adding further USD volatility. On the Canadian Dollar (CAD) side, the Ivey PMI report is crucial; a higher-than-expected reading could strengthen CAD, driving USDCAD lower, while a weak reading could weaken CAD, pushing USD CAD higher.


Price Action Analysis
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a sharp bearish trend, followed by a minor correction in the last five candles. Four of these candles are bullish but relatively small, indicating a weak recovery attempt. The USD/CAD Price has found support at 1.4280, leading to a slight bounce, but the lack of strong bullish momentum suggests that this is likely a temporary consolidation rather than a reversal. The downtrend remains intact, and unless buyers push above key resistance levels, further bearish pressure could emerge.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 - Blue & MA 17 - Red): The short-term MA (9) has crossed below the long-term MA (17), forming a bearish crossover, confirming a downtrend continuation signal. The moving averages are both sloping downward, reinforcing selling pressure. Despite the recent small bullish candles, the USD CAD price remains below both moving averages, meaning the bearish trend is still dominant unless price reclaims the moving averages.
Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): The RSI is at 41.82, signaling bearish sentiment but not yet oversold conditions. This suggests there is still room for further downside before the market reaches oversold territory. If the RSI remains below 50, bears remain in control, and a drop below 30 would indicate oversold conditions, potentially leading to a short-term reversal or consolidation.
Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO is at -0.014, confirming that negative momentum is still dominant, although the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating a possible slowdown in bearish momentum. If AO turns positive, it could suggest a trend shift, but for now, the bearish trend remains intact.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.4280, which has acted as a bounce level in recent price action, and if broken, it could push the USD/CAD price further down.
Resistance: The first resistance level is 1.4385, which aligns with recent price rejections and the 9-period moving average, while the next major resistance level is 1.4440, corresponding to the previous breakdown zone. A break above this level would challenge the bearish scenario and indicate potential bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Considerations
The USDCAD H4 technical analysis suggests a bearish trend continuation, with the bearish moving average crossover, RSI below 50, and AO still negative reinforcing the downside bias. The recent minor bullish correction lacks strong momentum, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend unless buyers push above key resistance levels. Upcoming fundamental news events, including Ivey PMI for CAD and FOMC speeches, could drive volatility, making it crucial to monitor USDCAD price reactions. Traders should watch for a breakout or rejection at resistance levels, while a break below 1.4280 could trigger further bearish movement. Proper risk management is crucial, given the upcoming news releases that may cause sharp price fluctuations.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.



FXGlory
02.06.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD currency pair remains highly reactive to economic events from both the UK and the US. Today, key market-moving events include speeches from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill, which could provide insights into future monetary policy. Traders will be watching for any hawkish or dovish tones that could impact the British Pound’s direction. On the USD side, multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, and Michelle Bowman, are scheduled to speak. Their commentary on monetary policy, inflation trends, and labor market conditions will be crucial, especially given upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and unemployment figures. If the Fed officials express concerns about inflation persistence, it may strengthen the USD, leading to further downside for GBP-USD.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD pair is showing a bearish bias on the H4 timeframe. Out of the last 10 candlesticks, 8 have been bearish, reflecting strong selling pressure. The GBPUSD price recently tested the Bollinger Bands lower band, bounced toward the middle band near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, but failed to break higher. The rejection at the middle band signals that sellers remain dominant, pushing the price back toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band. A further break below this key area could send the cable toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The bands were wide over the past 24 hours, signaling high volatility, but have now started to tighten slightly, which could indicate an upcoming consolidation before another move. Price action suggests a bearish structure, as the price rejected the middle band and is now gravitating toward the lower band near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 48.26, hovering near the neutral zone. This suggests that the market is neither oversold nor overbought, allowing room for further price action. However, the declining RSI trend reflects increasing bearish momentum.
Volumes: Recent volume spikes indicate strong market participation, particularly during downward moves. The last large bearish candle had a significant volume increase, suggesting that sellers are still in control. If volume remains high on further price drops, this would reinforce bearish momentum.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 1.2307 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). A break below could push GBPUSD toward 1.2260 (23.6% Fibonacci and recent lows), reinforcing bearish momentum.
Resistance: The first resistance is 1.2480 - 1.2570 (61.8% Fibonacci and previous rejections). A breakout could challenge 1.2500 (psychological level and middle Bollinger Band), signaling a potential shift in momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe continues to exhibit bearish price action, struggling to hold above key support levels. The rejection at the middle Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci level suggests further downside potential, with the next key target at 1.2307 and possibly 1.2260 if selling pressure persists. Fundamentally, the BOE speeches today could introduce volatility, while Fed speakers may reinforce USD strength, further pressuring the GBP USD pair. Traders should closely monitor upcoming market events and consider risk management strategies in case of sudden cable price spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.07.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.10.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The price of Gold (XAU/USD) remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and upcoming fundamental data releases. Today, the market is closely watching the Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. If inflation expectations rise, it could signal potential hawkish monetary policy from the Fed, strengthening the USD and pressuring Gold prices. Conversely, lower inflation expectations may support Gold as an inflation hedge. Additionally, broader market sentiment around interest rate decisions and geopolitical risks could drive gold price action. Investors will also monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for signs of strength or weakness, influencing Gold’s movement.


Price Action
Gold has been in a strong uptrend, continuously making new all-time highs over the past few weeks. However, after failing to break the previous ATH, the price action has formed a double-top reversal pattern, suggesting potential downside correction before a continuation of the bullish move. The last red candlestick with a long lower wick indicates strong rejection at the ATH level, reinforcing a temporary pullback. The first support level is the ascending trendline (green), and if the correction continues, the second support level lies around 2830. If the price finds strong demand at these levels, the bullish structure may resume, aiming for new all-time highs.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the price, confirming that the bullish trend remains intact. However, a shift in position above the price would indicate a potential trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands: Gold is currently supported by the middle Bollinger Band (20-period moving average). If the price continues to correct lower, it may test the lower Bollinger Band, acting as dynamic support. If the price rebounds from the middle band, the uptrend remains valid.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 62.48, still below the overbought threshold (70). This indicates that Gold has room for further upside, but a break below 50 could suggest increasing bearish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating a bullish momentum; however, the histogram shows weakening bullish strength, suggesting a potential consolidation or correction before another upward movement.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator is currently at -37.17, which is close to the overbought zone but still within neutral territory. If the value moves further downward, it may indicate a potential short-term correction.


Support and Resistance Levels
support: Immediate support is located at 2854 (green ascending trendline). If broken, the next key level is at 2830, a recent demand zone.
Resistance: Major resistance remains at 2871, which aligns with the last all-time high. A breakout above this level could lead to new record highs, pushing Gold towards 2900 and beyond.


Conclusion and Considerations
Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, but the formation of a double-top pattern suggests that a short-term pullback is likely before another leg higher. Traders should watch the key support zones at 2854 and 2830, as a bounce from these areas could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Meanwhile, breaking below these levels might trigger further correction. The RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR confirm that bullish momentum is still present, but some caution is warranted due to weakening momentum signals. The upcoming Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations could influence the USD, thereby impacting Gold prices. If the report suggests higher inflation expectations, USD strength could push Gold lower, whereas weaker expectations could support Gold’s rally.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.10.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.11.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair is influenced by the current market sentiment, economic data, and central bank policies. Today, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to have low liquidity due to a Bank Holiday in Japan. This could lead to reduced volatility in the early session. However, significant movement is anticipated later due to multiple speeches from U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony at 5:00 PM GMT+2. PowellÂ’s comments will likely provide insights into future interest rate decisions, which could lead to increased volatility in USD-related pairs. Additionally, FOMC Members Hammack, Bowman, and Williams will speak later, adding to potential market fluctuations. Traders should closely monitor these events, as any hawkish or dovish remarks could drive significant price action in USDJPY.


Price Action:
The USDJPY H4 chart shows a bearish trend over the past several days. The pair recently started a weak correction phase, attempting to retrace some of its losses. The USD JPY price today is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that selling pressure is still strong but also hinting at a possible short-term rebound. If the correction gains momentum, a test of key resistance levels is possible. However, a failure to hold recent gains could see the USD JPY pair continue its downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling that the market is in a bearish trend but also suggesting a potential short-term correction. If the USD/JPY price fails to break above the middle band, the downtrend is likely to resume.
Volume Indicator: The volume is also in a bearish trend, confirming that selling pressure remains dominant. However, there are signs that the volume may be decreasing, indicating a potential end to the correction phase soon.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 42.00, which means the USD-JPY is not yet in the oversold zone (below 30). This suggests that there is still room for further downside, but a potential reversal could be near if RSI moves lower and approaches oversold conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 150.000, 149.300, and148.500. These levels could be considered as targets for the upcoming bearish wave.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 152.500, 153.000, and 153.800. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY H4 analysis suggests that the pair is still in a bearish phase, but a short-term correction is underway. The Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Volume indicators indicate that while selling pressure remains strong, a temporary rebound is possible. However, todayÂ’s Fed Chair PowellÂ’s speech at 5:00 PM GMT+2 and other FOMC membersÂ’ speeches could significantly impact the USD, leading to sharp price movements. Given the low liquidity from the JPY side due to the Bank Holiday, traders should be cautious of sudden volatility spikes. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely and adjust their trading strategies based on upcoming Fed comments. A break below 150.750 could extend the downtrend, while a push above 152.500 might signal a stronger recovery.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.11.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Chart Daily Analysis for 02.12.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD currency pair may see heightened volatility today and in the coming sessions due to a series of scheduled US and Canadian economic events. On the US side, traders will look closely at upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases on March 12, 2025, as well as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other FOMC members, which can offer critical clues on the US interest rate path. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could react significantly to the Bank of Canada (BOC) Minutes release set for March 26, 2025, and crude oil inventory reports given Canada’s sizable energy sector. These factors, combined with ongoing market sentiment around inflation and economic growth, may create a catalyst for a new price direction on the USD-CAD H4 chart.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD chart shows that the pair has been stuck for quite some time in a range channel (as indicated by the two blue horizontal lines). A recent breakout attempt above the channel failed, and price action has since retested the lower boundary twice, hinting at building downside pressure. The red cycle line visible on the chart suggests the timing for a new directional move may be near, and the formation of consecutive bearish candles signals a rising possibility of a sustained break below the channel support. Traders should monitor how the pair behaves around this critical zone, as a confirmed break could trigger a fresh downward trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The three Bollinger Bands on the USD-CAD chart (the moving average center line, plus the upper and lower standard deviation lines) have converged closer together, indicating a period of lower volatility. Such tightening bands frequently precede a breakout move, highlighting the potential for a strong price action shift once volatility returns. The price has gravitated near the lower Band in recent sessions, reflecting a growing bearish bias. This contraction phase can end abruptly if the pair breaks convincingly below the channel support.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots have formed above the most recent candles, illustrating that downside momentum is beginning to dominate. When the dots remain above price bars, it typically suggests a short-term downtrend. A continuation of this pattern will reinforce bearish sentiment and further align with the notion of a pending channel breakdown. Traders often look for price and Parabolic SAR alignment to confirm momentum direction.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI reading near 39 indicates that momentum is leaning to the downside without having reached oversold territory yet. An RSI below 50 generally reflects a bearish outlook, though there is still room for additional selling pressure before oversold conditions emerge. If RSI continues to drop, it could validate increased bearish control. Conversely, a move back above 50 might signal a swing in momentum favoring buyers.


Support and Resistance:

Support: Immediate support rests around the 1.4230 level, the lower boundary of the established price channel. A decisive close below this threshold could open the door toward the 1.4100 mark, which stands as the next notable support.
Resistance: Key resistance is observed near 1.4450, aligning with the channel’s upper boundary. An additional resistance hurdle waits around 1.4700, which coincides with prior swing highs and could test bullish commitments if price surges upward.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD Vs. CAD pair appears poised for a potential breakout from its prolonged consolidation, and current technical indicators skew bearish. While a downside break remains likely given the failed attempt to breach the channel top and repeated tests of the lower boundary, major fundamental releases—such as US CPI and BOC Minutes—could inject sudden volatility and shift momentum. Traders conducting a technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for USDCAD should monitor both the market’s reaction to upcoming news and the price action around critical support and resistance levels. Caution and diligent risk management remain key, especially if a definitive channel break to the downside materializes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.12.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBPUSD pair is poised for volatility due to several key economic releases today. For the British Pound (GBP), the RICS Housing Price Balance report could influence market sentiment as it serves as an early indicator of housing inflation trends. Additionally, upcoming GDP, Construction Output, Trade Balance, and Industrial Production reports in the following days will further shape market expectations regarding the UK economy.
On the US Dollar (USD) side, a press conference by US President Donald Trump and a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller about stablecoins could introduce significant market movement. Additionally, US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is scheduled, serving as a leading indicator of inflation. The combination of UK economic reports and US policy discussions may drive volatility in the GBPUSD pair, making price action highly reactive to today’s scheduled events.


Price Action:
On the GBPUSD H4 chart, the price has been fluctuating between Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a mix of bullish and bearish pressure. Recently, a bullish recovery has been observed as the GBP/USD price approaches a key resistance level. The market sentiment suggests buyers are attempting to push the price higher, though a strong breakout is required to confirm further upside momentum. Candlestick formations suggest increased volatility, with recent wicks showing both buying and selling pressure.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price recently touched the upper Bollinger Band and pulled back slightly, suggesting resistance at this level. Currently, the price is once again moving closer to the upper band, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish momentum. If the GBP USD price breaks above the band with high volume, it could signal an expansion in volatility and further upside movement.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots (aqua-colored) are positioned below the candles, indicating an ongoing bullish trend. The consecutive SAR dots below price action provide confirmation that buyers are in control. However, if the dots shift above the GBP-USD price, it may signal a reversal or a period of consolidation.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently positive, indicating bullish momentum. The MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting continued upward pressure. However, the momentum appears moderate, meaning traders should monitor for any signs of divergence or a bearish crossover that could indicate a potential reversal.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is at 1.2340, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a strong demand zone.
Resistance: The key resistance level is at 1.2490, where the price has faced rejection multiple times. A breakout above this level could open the door for further upside movement.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD H4 analysis suggests bullish momentum, supported by Bollinger Bands, Parabolic SAR, and MACD indicators. However, resistance at 1.2490 remains a key hurdle for further price appreciation. With important UK and US economic data releases today, traders should expect increased volatility. A break above resistance could confirm further bullish momentum, while failure to do so may result in a pullback towards key support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.13.2025

 

[FXGlory]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.17.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing potential volatility due to USD-related events. The U.S. market will have low liquidity today as banks remain closed for Presidents' Day, which typically results in irregular volatility as institutional traders step aside, leaving room for speculative price swings. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Patrick Harker and Michelle Bowman could provide insights into future U.S. monetary policy. A hawkish stance may strengthen the USD, adding bearish pressure on BTC USD, while a dovish tone could support risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders should remain cautious as thin liquidity can lead to unexpected price spikes or rapid moves in either direction.



Price Action:
BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe is currently experiencing a bearish move after facing resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, leading to a sharp decline that has already broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The price has moved from the upper Bollinger Band to the middle band and is now trending downward toward the lower band, signaling increased bearish pressure. If the price fails to hold above key support levels, further downside movement toward the lower Bollinger Band and the next Fibonacci support zones is likely.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicate that BTCUSD has moved downward from the upper band toward the middle band and is now attempting to break lower. This suggests that selling pressure is increasing, with a potential test of the lower Bollinger Band in the coming sessions. A confirmed break below the lower band could signal further bearish continuation, while a bounce from this area might indicate temporary consolidation before the next move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is showing strong bearish momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming a downside bias. The increasing separation between the MACD and signal lines suggests that selling pressure is still dominant. If the bearish momentum continues to grow, Bitcoin may extend losses toward key support levels. However, a weakening histogram could indicate that the downside move is slowing, signaling possible consolidation or reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.76, reflecting bearish sentiment but not yet reaching oversold conditions. This indicates that BTC/USD still has room to move lower before a potential reversal. If the RSI drops below 30, it would signal an oversold scenario, potentially triggering a short-term price correction. Until then, the bearish outlook remains intact, with a downward trend likely to persist in the near term.



Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level is at $94,877, with a stronger support zone at $94,177, aligning with previous key price action areas.
Resistance: The immediate resistance level is at $97,183, with the next major resistance at $98,866, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.



Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart is currently in a bearish phase, as indicated by the break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, declining MACD momentum, and RSI trending lower. The price movement from the upper Bollinger Band toward the lower band confirms the increasing selling pressure, with a high probability of further downside unless key support levels hold. With low liquidity due to the U.S. bank holiday, traders should be prepared for irregular volatility and possible sharp movements. Additionally, the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials could provide unexpected market catalysts, influencing Bitcoin’s price action in correlation with USD movements. Caution is advised, and traders should employ proper risk management strategies while monitoring key levels for potential trade setups.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.17.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.18.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) currency pair is influenced today by key economic events. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its Monetary Policy Statement, alongside a Press Conference scheduled for later. Additionally, the Cash Rate decision has been announced, reflecting a shift from 4.10% to 4.35%, indicating a tightening policy stance to control inflation. These factors could add volatility to the AUD. Meanwhile, Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were released, showing a mixed outcome: CPI m/m increased by 0.1% (previous: -0.4%), while Core CPI m/m declined to -0.3%. A higher inflation rate could push the Bank of Canada (BoC) toward a hawkish stance, strengthening the CAD. As a result, AUD-CAD traders should remain cautious as the market digests these key data points, which could set the tone for further price movement.


Price Action:
The AUDCAD H4 chart indicates that the price has recently broken below its bullish trendline, signaling potential exhaustion in the prior uptrend. This suggests that buyers are losing momentum, allowing sellers to take control. The price is currently positioned beneath a key resistance level at 0.90500, with additional resistance barriers at 0.90590 and 0.90900. Recent candlestick formations near these resistance zones show rejection, reinforcing the likelihood of a bearish reversal. If the price fails to break back above these resistance levels, selling pressure could intensify, leading to a deeper decline. On the downside, immediate support levels to watch are 0.89750, 0.89360, and 0.89000, which could serve as price targets if the bearish momentum strengthens. These levels have historically acted as demand zones, where buyers may step in to slow the decline. However, a decisive break below these supports could accelerate selling pressure, pushing AUD/CAD even lower. Given the trendline break and resistance rejection, traders should closely monitor price action for further bearish confirmation.


Key Technical Indicators:
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator is still in a bullish phase, with the MACD line above the signal line and histogram bars expanding. However, if a crossover occurs, it could confirm the bearish momentum indicated by price action.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 58.65, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum. The RSI has recently turned bearish, suggesting the possibility of a downward correction or consolidation below key resistance levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level is positioned at 0.89750, with stronger support zones found at 0.89360 and 0.89000. These levels align with previous key price action areas where buyers have historically stepped in, potentially providing a floor for the price if the bearish momentum slows.
Resistance: The immediate resistance level stands at 0.90500, with additional key resistance zones at 0.90590 and 0.90900. These levels have previously acted as significant barriers, where selling pressure has emerged, making them critical points for any potential bullish recovery attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD CAD pair is currently at a critical decision point, trading just below a key resistance level while showing signs of potential downside movement. The MACD remains bullish, but the RSI has turned bearish, indicating possible exhaustion in the uptrend. With today's high-impact news events, including the RBA Policy Statement and Canadian CPI Data, traders should expect heightened volatility. A confirmed break below 0.90000 could accelerate a bearish wave toward 0.89750 and further support zones. Conversely, a break above 0.90590 could renew bullish momentum toward 0.90900.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.18.2025

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.19.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair is currently influenced by several key fundamental factors. The US Dollar's strength remains in focus as traders await the latest Building Permits and Housing Starts data from the US Census Bureau, which serve as leading indicators for economic activity and construction demand. A stronger-than-expected release could support the USD and apply downward pressure on AUD/USD. Meanwhile, Australia’s economic outlook is shaped by the Melbourne Institute Leading Index and the Wage Price Index, which provide insight into economic growth and inflation trends. If these indicators reflect economic resilience, the AUD could find support. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s testimony, as any hawkish tone on interest rates could impact risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, AUD-USD has been in an uptrend following a Morning Star candlestick pattern at the ascending trendline support. The price has reached a key resistance level and is now undergoing a correction. This pullback could extend to Zone 1, where buyers may re-enter the market before the next upward move. The presence of higher highs and higher lows suggests that the overall trend remains bullish unless there is a confirmed break below key support.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 57.17, showing a possible divergence. This suggests a weakening bullish momentum, although it has not yet entered overbought conditions. A drop below 50 could indicate further downside correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is declining, and the signal line is showing signs of a potential bearish crossover. This indicates that while the bullish trend is still intact, buying momentum is decreasing, and further correction could be expected before a continuation of the uptrend.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic is currently at 38.17, pointing downward. This suggests that the price could continue to correct in the short term before finding renewed buying interest at key support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.6280, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending trendline and a key demand zone. Another support level is found at 0.6350, marking a previous breakout zone and price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.6370, where the price is currently consolidating. If bullish momentum persists, the next major resistance level is at 0.6400, which coincides with recent highs and an important psychological barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD pair on the H4 chart continues to maintain its bullish structure but faces a short-term correction phase. Traders should monitor Zone 1 for potential bullish re-entry opportunities. A break below 0.6350 could trigger further downside movement, while a breakout above 0.6370 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. Given upcoming economic releases, volatility is expected. Traders should watch for USD strength or weakness following the US Building Permits and Housing Starts data, as well as Australian economic reports that may influence the AUD.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUDUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUD/USD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.19.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.20.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near all-time highs as global market sentiment remains cautious. Today, several high-impact USD news events could influence gold prices. US President Donald Trump’s speech at the FII Priority Summit in Miami may provide insights into economic policies that could impact the dollar’s strength. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson's speech on household balance sheets and initial jobless claims data will shape expectations for future interest rate decisions. If the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish tone, gold could face downward pressure due to a stronger USD. Conversely, weaker jobless claims or a dovish Fed stance could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Traders should also monitor the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, which may offer clues about US economic conditions, further impacting gold's direction.


Price Action:
The GOLDUSD H4 chart exhibits a strong bullish trend, with prices moving within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. Despite minor retracements, the price remains within an upward structure, suggesting ongoing buyer dominance. A key observation is that the recent pullback has been shallow, indicating that bulls still control the market. If the price sustains above the middle Bollinger Band, further upside movement is likely. However, a breakdown below this level may trigger a deeper correction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is currently moving between the middle and upper bands, attempting to reach the upper band again. The overall trend remains bullish, with gold maintaining its strength after breaking multiple all-time highs (ATHs) in recent months.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering near 59, suggesting that the market remains in bullish territory but is not yet overbought. This indicates that there is still room for further price appreciation before reaching extreme levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is expanding, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line. This suggests increasing bullish momentum, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. However, traders should watch for potential divergence, which could indicate a slowdown in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator is currently around 42-44, moving out of the oversold region. If the %K line crosses above the %D line, it could confirm a bullish continuation, supporting a move toward higher resistance levels.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The first key support level is at $2,920, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band and a recent price consolidation area. A break below this level could see further downside toward $2,880.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at $2,950, which represents the recent high and upper Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could lead to further gains toward $2,970 and beyond.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by bullish technical indicators and fundamental factors. With key USD news events today, traders should expect high volatility in the gold market. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, gold could face some selling pressure due to a stronger USD. However, if economic concerns arise or jobless claims come in weaker than expected, gold may continue its bullish rally. Traders should closely monitor XAUUSD’s price action around the $2,920 support and $2,950 resistance levels for potential breakouts or pullbacks.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.20.2025

 

[FXGlory]

EURNZD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.24.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURNZD pair is experiencing market volatility as traders react to key economic data from both the Eurozone and New Zealand. The IFO Business Climate Index from Germany, a leading indicator of economic sentiment, is expected to provide insights into the strength of the European economy. A better-than-expected reading could boost the Euro (EUR), while a weaker-than-expected outcome may pressure the currency. Additionally, the upcoming Core CPI and CPI reports from the Eurozone will significantly impact inflation expectations and influence the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
On the New Zealand dollar (NZD) side, recent Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales reports reflect consumer spending trends. Since these are lagging indicators, their impact may be limited unless there is a significant deviation from expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues to monitor inflationary pressures, and upcoming credit card spending data will provide further clues on consumer activity. If the data signals a robust retail environment, the NZD may gain strength.


Price Action:
The EURNZD pair has been in a downward channel since reaching a peak in mid-February. However, the last four candles have been bullish, indicating a potential short-term reversal or correction. The price has swiftly moved from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band, breaking through the middle band in a single strong bullish move. Additionally, the EUR NZD price is currently testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which serves as a key decision point for traders. If buyers maintain momentum, the next resistance level could be challenged. Conversely, if selling pressure resumes, the downtrend may continue.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EURNZD price has moved from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band, signaling increased volatility and a potential breakout from the bearish channel. Despite the overall downtrend, this sudden price spike suggests that bulls are regaining some control. If the price holds above the middle band, further bullish movement could be expected.
Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch 5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator is currently near the 75-80 zone, indicating that momentum has shifted towards the bulls. This suggests that the EUR/NZD pair might enter overbought territory soon. However, if the %K and %D lines cross downwards from these levels, a potential pullback may occur.
Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO histogram has transitioned from deep red to light blue, indicating weakening bearish momentum. While the histogram remains negative, the current trend suggests that bullish pressure is increasing. If the AO crosses above the zero line, it would confirm a stronger upside move.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is at 1.8180, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and recent lows. If the EURNZD price breaks below this level, further downside movement could follow.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at 1.8290, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A successful breakout above this level could lead to a test of 1.8330 (61.8% Fibonacci level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURNZD H4 chart analysis suggests a potential short-term bullish correction within a broader downtrend channel. The recent bullish momentum, reflected in Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Oscillator, and AO, highlights a possible upside continuation if resistance levels are broken. However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish unless a significant breakout occurs. Key fundamental factors, including IFO Business Climate Index, CPI data from the Eurozone, and New Zealand’s retail sales, could drive volatility in the EUR-NZD pair. Traders should closely monitor these reports, as unexpected economic data could shift market sentiment rapidly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/NZD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURNZD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.24.2025