Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

EURCAD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.21.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, the EURCAD pair is influenced by economic releases from both the Eurozone and Canada. The Eurozone will see the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the broader ZEW Economic Sentiment for the Eurozone, which are indicators of investor sentiment and economic expectations. A higher reading might support the Euro, signaling economic optimism in the region. For Canada, there is a significant release of inflation data, including CPI m/m, Median CPI y/y, and Core CPI m/m. With the potential for inflation to come in lower than expected (-0.7% m/m versus 0.0% forecast), this could indicate a cooling economy, possibly weakening the CAD. Traders will be looking for these economic prints to provide direction for the EURCAD pair.


Price Action:
The EURCAD pair on the H4 timeframe is currently experiencing a bullish trend. The price recently broke above the Ichimoku Cloud, a key technical indicator, signaling a shift to a bullish market sentiment. As the price continues to trend higher, it has cleared key resistance levels, indicating that the buyers are in control. A possible continuation of this upward movement is expected, given that the RSI remains below 70, indicating that the market has not yet reached overbought conditions. The recent price action shows an upward momentum, with minor retracements being bought into, suggesting a strong bullish bias.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has recently broken above the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a bullish market condition. The Chikou Span is above the price, and the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines are both pointing upwards, reinforcing the positive outlook.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 64.74, comfortably below the 70 overbought threshold. This suggests there is still room for further bullish movement without entering overbought territory. As the market remains in healthy bullish conditions, the RSI confirms that the momentum is still positive and that a continuation of the trend is likely.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The lower points of the recent candles around 1.48677 and 1.48555 serve as the immediate support level.
Resistance: The most recent resistance levels around the current price locate around 1.49360 and 1.50000 (psychological level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The technical analysis of EURCAD suggests a bullish outlook, supported by the recent break above the Ichimoku Cloud, the healthy RSI reading, and the overall upward price action. The pair is likely to continue its bullish trend as long as the price remains above the identified support levels, with potential target resistance at 1.49360 and 1.49740. However, given the upcoming economic releases today, including inflation data from Canada and sentiment indices from the Eurozone, there could be increased volatility. Traders should keep an eye on these data points, as any surprises could influence the direction of the pair in the short term.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.21.2025

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.23.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Today, USDCAD traders will be paying close attention to key economic indicators and events affecting both the USD and CAD. On the CAD side, Statistics Canada will release Core Retail Sales data, a primary gauge of consumer spending. Positive retail figures could bolster CAD strength, as they reflect healthy economic activity. Additionally, the World Economic Forum in Davos might feature remarks from Canadian policymakers, potentially influencing the market.
For the USD, initial jobless claims from the Department of Labor are scheduled, serving as an essential indicator of labor market health. Lower-than-expected claims could reinforce USD strength. Additionally, developments in energy inventories and global crude oil prices will significantly impact CAD due to Canada's reliance on the energy sector. Lastly, the World Economic Forum could spark USD volatility through central bank commentary.


Price Action:
The USDCAD pair has been in a bullish trend on the H4 timeframe but exhibits fluctuating behavior between bullish and bearish movements. The USD/CAD price has been oscillating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels. Currently, the price is inching toward the 23.6% level, indicating potential further bullish movement. The USD CAD price has also rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band and is now aligning closer to the middle band, signifying improving bullish momentum.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increasing volatility. After testing the lower band, the price has moved toward the middle band, reflecting growing bullish sentiment. A sustained move above the middle band could confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 50.36, sitting in neutral territory. This indicates neither overbought nor oversold conditions, leaving room for the USDCAD price to move higher. An upward push beyond 60 would signal strengthening bullish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains slightly negative but shows signs of recovery. The MACD line is approaching the signal line, suggesting that bullish momentum is building. A crossover into positive territory would confirm a bullish reversal.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.4320, aligning with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the lower Bollinger Band. A further drop would find stronger support at 1.4250, which coincides with recent lows and a critical psychological level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance is at 1.4385, situated at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and close to the middle Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level would target the next significant resistance at 1.4450, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band and recent swing highs.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CAD H4 chart analysis suggests the bullish trend remains intact, supported by key indicators such as Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD. However, fluctuations between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci levels reflect short-term uncertainty. Traders should watch for a break above 1.4385 for bullish confirmation, while a dip below 1.4320 could signal bearish risks. Given today’s upcoming CAD Retail Sales data and USD labor market figures, volatility is likely. Traders should remain cautious of potential sharp moves. Energy inventory releases could also influence CAD due to oil market sensitivity.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.



FXGlory
01.23.2025

 

[FXGlory]

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.24.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD currency pair represents the exchange rate between the British Pound (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD), a popular forex pair due to its volatility and liquidity. Today’s economic calendar highlights several key events that could influence GBP USD forex pair. On the USD side, PMI figures for both manufacturing and services, along with home sales data, provide critical insights into the economic outlook. Robust PMI readings could strengthen the dollar by signaling economic expansion. Meanwhile, the UK releases include consumer confidence and PMI data, which are crucial for understanding market sentiment toward the Pound. Positive GfK consumer confidence and manufacturing PMI data could provide a boost to GBP, while weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on its performance.


Price Action:
The GBPUSD pair has been trading within a slight bullish channel, gradually climbing from its lower boundary toward the upper boundary. Currently, the GBP-USD price has bounced from the middle Bollinger Band and reached the upper band, though the last two candlesticks are red, indicating a potential pullback or consolidation. The overall price movement reflects steady upward momentum, but bearish candlesticks suggest sellers are testing the upper boundary's strength.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicate a mild bullish trend, with the GBP/USD price moving from the middle band toward the upper band. The last two bearish candles after touching the upper band suggest a possible retracement toward the middle band or consolidation around current levels.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR shows an upward bias, with its last three dots positioned below the candles, supporting the ongoing bullish trend. However, traders should monitor closely for any reversal in the SAR placement, as it could signal a weakening trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 58.63, suggesting a neutral-to-bullish momentum. It indicates that the market still has room to rise without being overbought, though the slight decline reflects the GBP USD pair’s recent bearish candlesticks.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.2280, which aligns with the middle Bollinger Band and a recent consolidation area. Further support lies at 1.2200, the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a psychological level.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.2350, coinciding with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. A stronger resistance is at 1.2400, aligning with recent highs and acting as a psychological barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBPUSD pair on the H4 chart is showing a gradual bullish trend within an ascending channel, supported by technical indicators such as Bollinger Bands and Parabolic SAR. However, the red candles near the upper Bollinger Band suggest a possible pullback or consolidation. RSI readings indicate room for further upward movement, though traders should remain cautious of potential reversals.
Today’s news releases, particularly the US and UK PMI figures, along with consumer confidence data, could introduce significant volatility. A strong PMI from the US could pressure GBP-USD lower, while upbeat UK data may provide further support for the Pound. Traders are advised to closely monitor the upcoming news and consider key support and resistance levels when making trading decisions.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.24.2025