Daily Analysis By FXGlory

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.11.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD pair reflects the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the US dollar (USD), a popular pair for traders following both economies. Today, USD liquidity is expected to be low due to the Veterans Day bank holiday in the United States. Such low liquidity may result in unpredictable volatility, as the market becomes more prone to speculative activity. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar faces potential shifts with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's release of business inflation expectations, an important metric that gives insight into economic sentiment. If the expectations surpass forecasts, it could strengthen the NZD, as higher inflation expectations often lead to an anticipation of rate hikes. Traders should keep an eye on this release, as it can impact market sentiment and trigger NZD movement against the USD.


Price Action:
In the H4 timeframe, the NZD/USD is clearly in a downtrend, moving consistently below major moving averages. The price remains under pressure with lower highs and lower lows, confirming the bearish structure. Recently, the price has been consolidating near the 0.5900 level, reflecting seller dominance. However, minor bullish pullbacks have been observed, but each attempt to move higher has faced resistance. The bears maintain control, and with upcoming low liquidity in the USD, NZD/USD might experience temporary consolidation before the next directional move.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud shows a bearish signal, with the price trading well below the cloud. The Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines have formed a resistance area above the current price, reinforcing the bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are also positioned above the price, signaling ongoing downward momentum.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are aligned above the candles, adding confirmation to the prevailing downtrend. The position of the SAR dots suggests that the selling pressure is strong, and any bullish attempts are likely to meet resistance.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the signal line, and the histogram bars are in the negative territory, showing declining momentum. The bearish crossover that occurred earlier indicates sustained selling pressure, with no clear signs of a reversal yet.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator is hovering near the oversold zone, suggesting that the price might be nearing a temporary bottom. However, it has not shown a clear crossover, which would confirm a bullish reversal. Therefore, while oversold conditions may lead to minor pullbacks, the broader trend remains bearish.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level is 0.5900, which is a psychological level and aligns with recent price lows. A break below this level could open the path toward the 0.5850 area.
Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen at the 0.6040 level, near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. The next resistance level lies around 0.6140, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, where bearish momentum could intensify.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD analysis on the H4 chart suggests that the pair is entrenched in a bearish trend, with no strong indications of a reversal. The technical indicators, including the Ichimoku Cloud, Parabolic SAR, MACD, and Stochastic, all point towards sustained bearish pressure. However, given the oversold reading on the Stochastic oscillator and the low liquidity due to the US holiday, short-term consolidation or minor pullbacks are possible. Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor key support and resistance levels. Given the upcoming data release from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, a stronger-than-expected inflation outlook could offer temporary support to the NZD, while a weaker outcome might reinforce the downtrend.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11. 11.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EURNZD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 18.11.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The EURNZD currency pair, reflecting the Euro (EUR) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), is influenced by contrasting central bank policies and economic developments. For the Euro, traders await ECB President Christine Lagarde's upcoming speech, which may provide hints about inflation handling and potential policy adjustments. On the NZD side, cautious optimism prevails due to New Zealand's steady economic performance, although the RBNZ remains wary of external global risks. Combined, these factors keep EUR/NZD in a sensitive position, with market participants awaiting new fundamental drivers to determine the pair's direction.


Price Action
EURNZD shows short-term bullish momentum, with the last four candles indicating an upward movement within a broader bearish trend. The pair is trading between the 0% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, with the latter acting as a resistance zone. A breakout above this level could extend the recovery, while a rejection may lead to renewed bearish pressure toward support levels.


Key Technical Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud: The price remains below the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming the overall bearish sentiment. However, the narrowing Tenkan-sen (red line) and Kijun-sen (blue line) suggest growing bullish momentum in the short term. The cloud itself acts as a strong resistance above the current price levels.
MACD: The MACD is showing signs of a bullish crossover as the MACD line approaches the signal line, with a shrinking bearish histogram. This indicates weakening downward momentum, signaling a potential shift toward bullish sentiment.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator, now exiting oversold territory near 31, signals potential for further upward movement. However, traders should watch for a slowdown as it approaches neutral or overbought levels.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are currently positioned above the candles, indicating bearish momentum in the broader trend. This aligns with the overall bearish sentiment, signaling potential resistance to further upside unless a breakout occurs.


Support and Resistance Levels
Support: Immediate support is at 1.7935, the 0% Fibonacci retracement level, which has been a strong barrier against further downside.
Resistance: Key resistance is at 1.8025, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, where recent bullish attempts have faced rejection.


Conclusion and Consideration
EURNZD is displaying short-term bullish momentum, but the broader bearish trend remains intact. A sustained break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level would strengthen the case for a continued bullish recovery toward 1.8100. Conversely, a failure to maintain upward momentum could lead to a drop back to 1.7935 or lower. Traders should monitor key technical levels and upcoming fundamental events, particularly speeches from ECB officials, for directional cues.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/NZD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURNZD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.18.2024

 

[FXGlory]

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.19.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD pair faces mixed fundamental influences, with Canadian inflation data showing slight improvement (CPI m/m at 0.3%) but subdued core inflation pressures, potentially prompting the Bank of Canada to maintain a cautious policy stance amid growth concerns. In contrast, resilient U.S. economic data, such as steady building permits at 1.44 million, supports the Federal Reserve's hawkish approach, widening interest rate differentials in favor of the U.S. Dollar. Diverging monetary policies and stronger oil prices add complexity, as oil strength supports the Canadian Dollar. These factors drive upward pressure on USDCAD, keeping fundamental and technical analysis closely aligned.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, USDCAD remains in an upward trajectory, but current price action is showing some weakness. The pair has been moving below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, indicating bearish pressure in the near term. The dynamic trendline support, shown in the image, is crucial for maintaining this bullish structure; however, if this trendline is breached, further downside is highly likely. Resistance levels at 1.40723, 1.41125, and 1.42000 are expected to cap any short-term bullish rallies. Conversely, support levels are found at 1.39975, 1.39390, and 1.39125, where buyers may look to defend against deeper losses.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is trading below the middle band, indicating bearish sentiment. The lower Bollinger band is expanding, suggesting increased volatility and a possible continuation of the downside if the trendline support is lost.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic indicator is currently in oversold territory, suggesting that the downside momentum may be overextended, and a potential short-term rebound could be on the cards. However, a confirmed break below the dynamic support could negate this possibility and lead to further declines.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support lies at 1.39975, with further support levels at 1.39390 and 1.39125. A break below these levels would indicate a stronger bearish sentiment, with potential for further downside.
Resistance: Resistance is observed at 1.40723, 1.41125, and 1.42000. If the price can break and hold above these levels, it would signal a resumption of the bullish trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDCAD pair is showing bearish momentum on the H4 timeframe, trading below the middle Bollinger Band, with stochastic in oversold territory. A break below the dynamic trendline support could trigger further declines toward 1.39390 and 1.39125, while a move above 1.40723 and 1.41125 is needed for a bullish recovery. Traders should watch key economic releases from both Canada and the U.S., as improving Canadian CPI data or unexpected hawkishness from the Bank of Canada could support the CAD, while strong U.S. data may reinforce bearish pressure. Monitor support and resistance levels for breakout or reversal opportunities.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.19.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.20.2024

Time Zone: GMT +3
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
For today’s EUR/GBP Fundamental analysis, we look at the balance between the economic performance of the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. GBP-focused traders are eyeing inflation data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Price Index (RPI), which provide insights into price stability and economic health. Furthermore, BOE Deputy Governor David Ramsden's upcoming speech is expected to shed light on the central bank's monetary policy trajectory. On the Eurozone side, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech on financial stability tomorrow could introduce market volatility, as traders look for hints on interest rate direction. These events will play a significant role in shaping the near-term news forecast of EUR/GBP.


Price Action:
The EUR/GBP H4 chart shows the pair’s bullish trend within a rising channel, with higher highs and higher lows dominating the structure. The pair is currently consolidating near a key resistance zone at 0.8370, indicating indecision before a potential breakout. The Ichimoku cloud offers dynamic support, and price action remains above the Kumo, suggesting continued bullish momentum. However, rejection at the current resistance could trigger a short-term correction to retest lower support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The price is currently trading above the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a bullish sentiment in EUR/GBP. The cloud’s future projection slopes upward, indicating the potential for continued upward momentum. However, the pair’s proximity to resistance suggests a need for confirmation before further bullish expansion.
MACD: The MACD histogram is positive, but declining, reflecting slowing bullish momentum. The MACD line is still above the signal line, though a potential bearish crossover could materialize if downward momentum continues.
RSI: The RSI is currently at 56, showing moderate bullish strength. A move above 60 would confirm strong buying momentum, while a drop below 50 could indicate a shift to bearish sentiment.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is at 0.8325, where the top of the Ichimoku Cloud provides a cushion. A deeper support is seen at 0.8300, near the lower boundary of the rising channel. A breakdown below these levels would indicate increasing bearish pressure.
Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies at 0.8370, with a stronger barrier at 0.8400, aligning with the upper boundary of the rising channel. A breakout above these levels could signal further bullish continuation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/GBP H4 analysis reflects a bullish bias within a rising channel, supported by strong technical indicators. However, the pair is nearing significant resistance at 0.8370, which aligns with upper-channel resistance. A breakout above this level could see the pair test 0.8400, while a rejection might lead to a corrective pullback towards 0.8325. Traders should closely monitor today’s UK inflation data and upcoming speeches by BOE and ECB officials, as they could provide critical catalysts for the pair’s price movement.


Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


FXGlory
11.20.2024

 

[FXGlory]

NZDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.21.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The NZDUSD currency pair reflects the strength of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). Key US economic events today include speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, notably Susan Collins and Beth Hammack, which could provide market-moving insights regarding monetary policy. Initial jobless claims data and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index will also be closely watched for indications of labor market health and manufacturing activity in the US, which may influence USD volatility. Meanwhile, for the NZD, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to release credit card spending data, a measure of consumer confidence and spending habits. Hawkish Fed commentary could strengthen the USD, while positive NZ consumer data might support the NZD.


Price Action
The NZD-USD pair on the H4 chart is currently trading below the 0.5900 level. After a bearish trend dominated earlier sessions, the pair is showing signs of recovery, moving toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, the last few candles suggest hesitation, with the price attempting to break through the middle Bollinger Band, reflecting a battle between bulls and bears. Traders should closely monitor whether the pair consolidates near the 23.6% Fibonacci level or reverses lower.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The last four Parabolic SAR dots are above the price candles, signaling a continuation of bearish momentum. However, this may shift if the price can consolidate above the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
Bollinger Bands: The price is moving from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands back toward the middle band but has not decisively broken above it. This indicates indecision in the market, with a possible range-bound movement.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic is near the oversold level (currently at 18.23), suggesting a potential reversal to the upside. However, any breakout would depend on further confirmation from price action.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram shows diminishing bearish momentum, though the MACD line remains below the signal line. A potential crossover could indicate a shift to bullish sentiment, so traders should watch for further developments.


Support and Resistance
Support Levels: The primary support for NZD/USD is at 0.5860, which marks the recent low and serves as a psychological level, while 0.5820 represents a historical support zone with notable buying interest.
Resistance Levels: Resistance is positioned at 0.5905, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band as a minor hurdle, and 0.5960, corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, serving as a key target for bullish advances.


Conclusion and Consideration
The NZD USD pair on the H4 chart exhibits bearish undertones, though a potential reversal is indicated by oversold stochastic levels and weakening bearish momentum on the MACD. Traders should watch for a sustained break above the middle Bollinger Band (near 0.5900) as an early signal of bullish momentum. Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and US jobless claims data could drive significant volatility in the USD, while NZD traders will monitor credit card spending data for domestic cues.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.21.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.22.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD news analysis today remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic developments and monetary policies. Today’s fundamental signals focus on key Eurozone PMI data for both manufacturing and services sectors. The Flash PMI, which is a leading indicator of economic health, is expected to signal whether the Eurozone economy remains in contraction territory or shows signs of recovery. Meanwhile, for the US, the release of PMI and University of Michigan sentiment data could provide insights into the strength of the American economy. Additionally, comments from Federal Reserve officials may hint at future monetary policy direction, further influencing USD movements. As inflationary pressures persist in both regions, traders remain cautious about potential volatility in the EUR/USD forecast today.


Price Action:
The EUR/USD H4 candle chart exhibits a clear bearish structure, characterized by lower highs and lower lows. The pair has recently broken below key support levels, indicating sustained selling pressure. The recent candles show a rejection near resistance, with bearish momentum driving the pair toward new lows. EURUSD’s Price action suggests that sellers are in control, and the trend remains to the downside unless buyers reclaim significant levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Stochastic RSI: The Stochastic RSI is currently at 18.78, deep in the oversold zone. This indicator further reinforces the possibility of a minor pullback, although the overall bearish sentiment remains intact.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are consistently above the price, signaling a strong bearish trend. This indicates sustained downward momentum, with no signs of reversal yet.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 31.82, approaching oversold territory. While this suggests bearish dominance, it also hints at a possible short-term correction or consolidation before continuing downward.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: 1.0465 (recent low) serves as the immediate support level, while 1.0425 is the next key level, acting as a strong psychological and historical support zone.
Resistance Levels: 1.0520 is the nearest resistance, which was previously a support level now turned resistance. Further above, 1.0585 marks a critical level to watch, as it represents the recent swing high and could act as a significant barrier for bullish attempts.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD outlook on its H4 chart is firmly entrenched in a bearish trend, as confirmed by price action and the pair’s technical outlook with indications from the Parabolic SAR, RSI, and Stochastic RSI. While oversold conditions on the RSI and Stochastic RSI suggest the potential for a short-term correction, the overall trend remains bearish. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data from both the Eurozone and the US, as these releases could influence short-term volatility and momentum. Risk management is crucial, with stop losses placed below support levels for buyers and above resistance levels for sellers.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.22.2024

 

[FXGlory]

EURCAD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.25.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURCAD pair is influenced today by key news releases for both the Eurozone and Canada. For the Euro, significant market-moving events include the German ifo Business Climate Index, the Belgian National Bank Business Confidence survey, and a speech by ECB member Joachim Nagel. The ifo survey, being a leading economic health indicator, is expected to shape sentiment toward Eurozone growth, while Nagel’s remarks could provide insight into future ECB monetary policy directions. Meanwhile, for Canada, quarterly corporate earnings data is scheduled. Positive results could support CAD by indicating improved business conditions. This fundamental backdrop sets the stage for a potentially volatile trading session, with traders looking for signals from economic indicators and central bank rhetoric.


Price Action:
On the H4 timeframe, EURCAD is in a bearish trend, with the pair posting lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action has demonstrated a clear breakdown below the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands, confirming downward momentum. The latest candles are forming near the lower Bollinger Band, hinting at oversold conditions. However, the lack of strong reversal signals suggests the bearish trend may persist, albeit with potential retracements.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is trading in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, with recent candles hugging the lower band. This confirms strong bearish momentum but also suggests the potential for a pullback. Narrowing bands indicate decreasing volatility, often preceding a breakout or trend continuation.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator has just exited the oversold zone (crossing above 20), signaling a possible corrective bounce in the near term. However, the overall trend remains bearish, and the signal lacks strong upward momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, with a declining histogram. This bearish setup indicates sustained selling pressure, with no immediate signs of a reversal.
Parabolic SAR: The Parabolic SAR dots are positioned above the candles, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. Recent adjustments in the SAR position reaffirm the downward momentum, though traders should watch for any flips to signal potential trend shifts.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The 1.4492 level serves as a key support, representing previous lows. A breach of this level could intensify the ongoing bearish momentum.
Resistance: The 1.4722 level stands as the closest resistance, corresponding to the recent breakdown area and the mid-point of the Bollinger Bands. Any upward retracement is likely to encounter selling pressure around this level.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURCAD H4 chart reveals a strong bearish trend supported by technical indicators like Bollinger Bands, MACD, and Parabolic SAR. While the Stochastic Oscillator hints at a minor retracement, the overall sentiment remains bearish. Upcoming fundamental events, including the ifo survey and Canadian corporate earnings, could inject volatility, making the 1.4492 support level crucial for monitoring further price action. Traders should remain cautious, especially with potential reversals from oversold conditions, while closely observing fundamental triggers.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.25.2024

 

[FXGlory]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 11.27.2024

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD news analysis today suggests the pair is under pressure as it navigates through mixed fundamental signals from both the Australian and U.S. economies. On the Australian side, the recent focus has been on inflation and construction data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has highlighted that the next Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, due in early January, will be critical in shaping market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy. Rising inflation could prompt a more hawkish stance from the RBA, while subdued price growth may maintain the current dovish bias. Additionally, the construction activity data, which plays a vital role in GDP and employment, points to broader economic health and spending trends. On the U.S. front, the release of GDP second estimates, durable goods orders, and jobless claims today could further strengthen the U.S. Dollar if the data beats expectations, highlighting the economic resilience of the U.S. economy. This creates a complex backdrop, where near-term AUD/USD price action will likely be driven by U.S. economic updates, while Australian fundamentals will continue to shape the pair’s longer-term forecasts.


Price Action:
On the AUD/USD H4 candle chart, its price is trading in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action shows a retracement toward the middle Bollinger Band, suggesting a temporary pause in the downtrend. The pair continues to test support near 0.6440, a critical level that has held on several occasions. A decisive break below this level could accelerate further downside momentum, while a rebound might target resistance around 0.6500.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is oscillating near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling AUDUSD’s strong bearish bias. A touch of the middle band could act as a dynamic resistance, while a breach of the lower band might indicate further downside pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator: Currently at 37.63, the Stochastic Oscillator is moving toward oversold territory. This indicates that the bearish momentum may slow down, but there’s no strong signal for a reversal yet.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is in negative territory, and the MACD line is below the signal line, confirming the bearish trend. However, the histogram's narrowing suggests weakening momentum.


Support and Resistance:
Support Levels: Immediate support is located at 0.6440, followed by a deeper level at 0.6400 if the bearish trend intensifies.
Resistance Levels: The first resistance lies near 0.6500 (middle Bollinger Band), with stronger resistance at 0.6550.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD outlook today on its H4 chart remains bearish, with technical indicators and price action reinforcing the downward momentum. While the Stochastic Oscillator suggests that the pair may soon approach oversold levels, the MACD and Bollinger Bands point to further potential downside. Traders should watch for a break below the 0.6440 support or a rebound toward 0.6500 for a clearer direction. The pair’s Fundamental signals, particularly from the U.S., are likely to dictate short-term movements. Risk management strategies, such as stop-losses, are essential when trading this volatile pair.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
11.27.2024