Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

hey all

on the 1 hour 20ma the green usd is getting hammered south now and crossing the Zero - so time to sell........GBP is the buy

on lower TF's clearly this signalled earlier and I have been on the gu buy

gotta scoot
N

 

[NVP]

usd has been a solid scalp sell now for about 45 mins ...........not sure how much more is in the tank...............ditto for GBP .......solid buy for nearly 80-90 minutes .......hmmmm

 

[NVP]

as I leave the gbp looks peaked..........buywise I now like NZD ............not sure if USD will be its pair vehicle though as it looks over sold

later
N

 

[NVP]

back for a while .........

ok heres the 1 hour charts on a 20ma ............we see the ole greenback is now below the zero and a sell........

its stalling ...........so that's phase 1 completed

so now what ?

how the hell should I know ???...........

we are not fortune tellers or predictors of the future ........we are traders !!

so just trade what you see when it happens .........don't guess or gamble

right ? :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

got tied up yesterday ..........since that last post the usd just got more and more and more bull !

only the euro and chf have followed ..with all the other currencies being nice nice sells into the greenback

see where the usd bull phases are ?...........each dip point and then the divergence

N

 

[NVP]

morning all

this is not a bad monthly mag........you probably have to register though

theres a guy called Fernandes that sometimes publishes some interesting systems but don't think hes in this edition

N

http://www.currencytradermag.com/downloads/index.php

 

[NVP]

and from that edition.................if you think you are not performing well in 2014 .....take a look here .............july was kinder to most ......but the YTD reflects some of the poorer volatility we are seeing in 2014 so far

N

 

[NVP]

200ma on a daily from start of year ...............looks like simply selling EA has provided 10% returns to date..........that's just 1 trade and mega long term / hold

anyone shorting Euro day in day out generally in 2014 should have been doing better than most of these guys .......surely ?

N

 

[NVP]

durrr............do any large hedge funds spot a pattern here ?

N

 

[NVP]

jedster mate ........re our recent discussions......we are in the wrong businesses...........fancy starting a hedge fund ......

hahahaha
N

 

[NVP]

hey all

well the usd has recently gone south on the standard 1 hour charts 20ma so sell time

it had all day yesterday above Zero and we saw about 5-6 phases overall of buys that should have seen you safely making pips at scalping levels .....did it dudes ??

anyway ive been scalping usd sells for last hour or so .......not bad at all so far

N

 

[NVP]

phase 2 sell - usd

 

[NVP]

phase 2 sell - usd

GU added another 15-20 pips on this call ......whilst you had to give EU a little breathing space before it offered another nice buy EU scalp up....:smart:

let the USD breathe a little ..........its not ready as yet to sell again

all charts are always gmt -1

N

 

[NVP]

I was lucky chasing that gu up scalping ..........but that's scalping

the main trend on GBP now for about the last 8 hours is sell sell sell.......

in fact if we are honest I think GBP would like to start Sept all over again ???

N

 

[NVP]

30 pips up now on that latest EU 4hr bar (well on my FXCM software/platform) ......and only in 3rd hour............not bad ..........had its ups and downs though

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi N

How's it going ?

From 12 30 pm ish I have favoured scalp sells on EJ and EU - but will be looking at scalp buying again above 3140/2 on EU and 138 00 05 on EJ

GL and have a good positive day


Regards


F

 

[NVP]

GU added another 15-20 pips on this call ......whilst you had to give EU a little breathing space before it offered another nice buy EU scalp up....:smart:

let the USD breathe a little ..........its not ready as yet to sell again

all charts are always gmt -1

N

yep usd still coming south .........

 

[NVP]

if you are a follower of the strenghmeter here you will already know that the Europeans are not the buys

cads the main buy presently

 

[NVP]

yen and AUD also in the running

 

[Forexmospherian]

and from that edition.................if you think you are not performing well in 2014 .....take a look here .............july was kinder to most ......but the YTD reflects some of the poorer volatility we are seeing in 2014 so far

N

Hi N

Further to your comment on the poor performance of the Hedge Funds listed in the table you supplied

Firstly - If these are the best - it just shows how bad "Algo" trading is when they have not invested the time and money coming up with top notch costly systems - that will work in all conditions - ie like HFT did in its first few years - it was just a licence to print money

With regards to this year and for the first 6 months - I have had a cracking year so far -easily up 180% - which would be unbelievable and not the norm for commercial units with larger capital accounts - but for retail with all my trades now under maximum 12 lots per pip - its a different ballgame. I never have more than 3% of my capital on trades - without them being already in profit - big difference to funds with say $5 - 10 million capital who might be using less than 0 2% stakes on their trades

I do know of a Private Fund Manager who has a several million dollar account who trades FX - and his stakes sizes are that small - as he does not use stops and allows for trades being out up to 1000 pips the wrong way. This could result in him being in negative positions on some trades over 3 and 6 months - he does hedge in some cases - he make money - but 25% + for him per annum is like absolutely fantastic.

Total different ball game - I want 25% per month plus on account sizes under $ 75k - and its certainly possible - when you know what you are doing - and of course thats limits it to less than maybe 5% of all FX day traders - and these guys will have been day trading for over 5 or 10 yrs and will have many "edges" that would be impossible to use with trades on 50 or 100 lot per pip size.

Hope that helps for traders to understand why there are so many different stories on performance etc etc.

Regards


F