Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

Hi N,

Sorry to hear about your pc problems, you missed some interesting (eventually!) moves today - heres my usual a bit earlier than normal as I'm done and dusted for this morning's session now:-

GU; Elected to keep things tight today as market has appeared some what undecisive lately. First trade entered short on 08:05 bar open at 63172 and enjoyed short lived move down before single bar reversal took price back up, tight SL taken out during 08:35 bar for 16 pip loss. Second trade entered on sell stop order at 63212 which filled during weird 09:00 bar's tail and price retreated a few pips backwards before following bar popped downwards again, then went into a fairly tight consolidation range for 45 minutes or so and finally broke free at 09:55 and motored down. Noticed price got stuck for a short while around low of about 62840 (as printed on 01:45 and 02:15 M15 charts interestingly enough) for some strange reason so TS dragged down just in case of reversal, but price obliged me by dropping further after this pause and then did a U-turn to take me out during 10:45 bar for a near 40 pip profit. Following that price got itself into yet another tight range, but might be one to watch this afternoon when our cousins across the pond fire into action.

EU; Didnt like that big 08:00 bar so did usual and kept wallet (and mouth!) shut. Price retraced up the hill and I waited for a close above the 44080 mark (08:55 bar) and set sell stop "trap" at 44048 which got filled during 09:05 and, in turn, trapped me as price skidded to a halt and turned around taking out my today's "global" tight SL decision during 09:30 bar for 14 pip loss. Second trade opened short on 10:05 bar at 44063 and this time caught a good momentum move down, then a slightly worrying push up followed by another smallish push down again. A few bars later price ran into a much smaller retrace so I decided to hang in for a while longer and got rewarded with a nice further smallish drop down and exited near end of 11:35 strong up bar (time for me running out then) for 22 pip profit.

EG; Yet again no decent entries to be had on this pair and I gave up looking when both GU and EU went into their respective consolidation phases, as that usually leaves EG about as attractive as a banker at a retirement party!

So, have we seen a sort of small blow out today to extract us from this week's horrible congestion phase? I certainly hope so and perhaps (hopefully!) the afternoon session will throw out some clues into this.

Trade well and regards,
Simon.
 

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usd still consolidating.....although my stream driven pc may be still lagging.....

jees....

N
 
heres colin twiggs take on daily activity.......and that gold/usd relationship

As you know we really watch this relationship and also the markets (S&P30) vs the yen here at corrie central...........and when the tag walk the same path its bingo time re trading the other G8 currencies....just wish we could get more handle on WHICH ones to trade more !!

Playing devils advocate here theres actually some great (even more profitable ?) trading signals available when these correlations described above are NOT happening.....

here they are :-

1) Gold not (negatively) correlating to USD ...ie same direction
2) S&P30 and also Eq markets generally not (neg) correlating to Yen
3) USD not correlating (same direction) to USD....ie they are moving in diff directions


watch this space.......

WIP....posting in progess...DOH....signal weal on internet....!!!

N


ok dudes see red above....heres the comments i couldnt load earlier


1) if gold and USD are walking the same path then there are other more fundamental and one off forces driving one of them to not follow the usual correlation (inverse) pattern.......since we do not trade gold on this thread only forex then we look at the relationship to try to understand if its USD that is being fundamantally hit (news items or big move on another currency) and if not and assuming its not gold getting news /demand issues (check news + other commodities and markets) then we can deduce that basically there is an underlying bias that is preventing USD doing what its supposed to do vs Gold

ACTION.......as soon as Gold changes bias pile into the USD trend based on the fundamental (inverse) realtionship....this would mean normally stay on the trend USD has been showing as it is about to rocket forward supported by the ususal Gold relationship

if Gold does not reverse keep watching for other cataysts and USD could finally buckle under pressure and pop back into the more traditional (inverse) relationship and reverse dramatically like a torpedo....seen it and been there lots..especially if tag suddenly realigns

2)for the the Yen vs S&P30 (and vs nikkei on overnights) do exactly the same process as above........it will work.........remember as well the Japanese bank get involved occasionally trying to weaken the Yen so if markets are falling and yen wont rise in response the dudes are dumping it in the markets - then its about whos got the most samosa's.....umm...usually the markets will have more power and Yen would eventually rise like a torpedo (seen it and got the tee shirt).......interestingly suppressing the Yen against market forces would be most effective theoretically on the overnights as the BOJ are :-

1) awake (!)
2) just up against the Far East markets and not trying to take on the entire western worlds markets that are closed

3) last but not least whis all above is happening watch the tag correlation.....if just either event 1 or 2 are happening then you should have the Tag team going in different directions so be careful and wait for the resumption of correlation (ie based on my comments further above)

If event 1 and 2 are both happening then the tag should still be correlating but I would be nervous of trading it as they are correlating for the wrong reasons (ie both positively correlating to their respective markets)....real messy and the markets are in turmoil

confused then.....I am :eek:

seriously feed me any comments and i'll give examples at some time in the future

(when I can post charts !! :smart:)
N
 
Hi N,

Sorry to hear about your pc problems, you missed some interesting (eventually!) moves today - heres my usual a bit earlier than normal as I'm done and dusted for this morning's session now:-

GU; 16 pip loss. Second trade 40 pip profit

EU; 14 pip loss. Second trade 22 pip profit.

So, have we seen a sort of small blow out today to extract us from this week's horrible congestion phase? I certainly hope so and perhaps (hopefully!) the afternoon session will throw out some clues into this.

Trade well and regards,
Simon.

Our resident pro scalped up around 30+ pips in a (difficult) morning session
respect (y)

I will try to get charts up later.......internet connection willing on my cr@p PC.........


N
 
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ooooo.....

first post from my sexy new laptop......need a degree in nuclear astro physics to load it up but getting there slowly

just trying to sort out the data device to transfer some metatrader
corrie files across:|:|

N
 
now waiting to get my mt4 password from either odl or CMS whoever opens up first today....jees its only a Mt4 download software.... im not tying to borrow some money so why isnt it an automaatic pushback E-mail with my passwrd on it ??? :mad:

I really really hate computers and software.....anything new causes tgruble and breaks everything else.......just give me he t4 softwae, a screen. a forex market feed and a few corries .....thats all I want :cry:

on this subject i was talking to Jrp over the weekend.........he has very tight, secure and robust IT system and backups ready to roll immediately if things fail

for wannabe full time traders like myself ..:rolleyes:.....this is the IT benchmark I
need to emulate before I ever consider firing a live trade into he cosmos.....

hopefully we are back in business tomorrow... but I still have to set this laptop up as a remote access from work :eek:..and get the damn metatrader sofware on it when the brokers finally appear...

enjoy the rest of the weekend (y)

NVP
 
Hi N,

Wow! I see your new laptop is a wizz-bang affair, its even got those "special" keys like mine which are in all the wrong places whenever typing - or is that my dyslexia, or maybe just "fat" fingers?!!!

Hopefully you can get mt4 loaded and running with your corrie indy ready for tomorrow morning as after last Friday's GU blow out we hopefully might see things get back into sync again.

Good luck with your "taplop" keyboard - meoooow! Regards,
Simon.
 
Hi N,

Wow! I see your new laptop is a wizz-bang affair, its even got those "special" keys like mine which are in all the wrong places whenever typing - or is that my dyslexia, or maybe just "fat" fingers?!!!

Hopefully you can get mt4 loaded and running with your corrie indy ready for tomorrow morning as after last Friday's GU blow out we hopefully might see things get back into sync again.

Good luck with your "taplop" keyboard - meoooow! Regards,
Simon.


hi mate

actually....the keys are bigger on this new laptop........

prACTIce wi LL MaKE PerECT....:cry:


N
 
Hi all

no word from the brokers so noihng I can do this morning.....

later.......?

N
 
now had some communication from ODL re loading software....but cannot perform these instructions till home tonight.....1 step forward 1 step back..........

I notice that over 80 copies of my free corrie have been loaded now from page 64.....if anyone wants to post a 5m on 1000/1 and a 30m 1000/1 I would be happy to give some views and thoughts here......;)

also a 4h on 1000/1 across last month or so....thats always interesting for for a G8 overview !

thks !!!!
N
 
ooohh...

just noticed i'm on 995 posts now as a veteran member of T2W

do I get a telegram from George Soros at 1,000 ? :cheesy:

N
 
Hi N and all,

Straight into this morning's bun fight....

GU; Could see the market wanted to continue with Frankie period rise so jumped in long on 08:05 bar at 63294, suffered my usual pullback (that clever price always knows when I get in!) although it was very shallow and then had to wait and tolerate a very jagged sidewise crawl before eventually that big 10:05 up bar woke the market up. Some wake up call; having popped up price didnt seem to like these dizzy heights and started to slither down again with the 10:50 bar taking out my TS for 22 pip profit. Saw what looked to be a nice long setup after the 11:50 up bar but it appeared to late for me and my morning session criteria.

EU; Definitely a basket case this morning! First trade got suckered into a long on 08:10 bar only to see price beat a hasty retreat and take me out for a 14 pip loss when I realised what was happening and scrambled for the fire exit to do a stop and reverse (close long open short) order. So, sitting short now I thought I was on the correct side of the market but the roller coaster formed a low base, moved up and then formed another higher low base and I should have taken that as a hint, but its hard to "see" this in real time. Then the fire alarm went off again and I had to bail out near the end of the big 10:05 up bar for 18 pip loss. Two losers on the trot for me means leave this pair well alone!

EG; Set a sell stop order at 88038 which got filled during early part of 08:30 bar and price moved down reluctantly, got itself caught in a very thin period and then moved up and eventually rolled over and went down again. Nothing seemed to be happening during the sideway crawl starting around 10:15 so I brought my TS down to just below the 88000 mark and got taken out on 10:55 bar for a near 5 pip profit.

Not a very clever day but once again, by trading across three pairs I managed to at least mitigate some of EU horrific losses. Maybe our cousins across the pond can provide a bit of directional momentum when they get on board?

Trade well and regards,
Simon.
 

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Hi N and all,

Straight into this morning's bun fight....

GU; 22 pip profit. Saw what looked to be a nice long setup after the 11:50 up bar but it appeared to late for me and my morning session criteria.

EU; 14 pip loss & 18 pip loss. Two losers on the trot for me means leave this pair well alone!

EG; a near 5 pip profit.

Not a very clever day but once again, by trading across three pairs I managed to at least mitigate some of EU horrific losses. Maybe our cousins across the pond can provide a bit of directional momentum when they get on board?

Trade well and regards,
Simon.

Hey JRP......one of the toughest mornings i've seen you post here....but that that still nets to just a handful of pips in the red......;)

a great lesson to all aspiring Traders (especially me)........keep a mega-tight ship on the bad days

Interesting comment on the "netting" effect of the 3 currencies.......have you ever gone back
and analysed how these 3 pairs "deliver" daily to see any patterns there ?

the best situation is clearly when one of the currencies (identified by the corrie) gets into a good steady
trend pattern and moves up or down consistently through the session.....the other 2 can then can be traded profitably using standard entry/exit points.....

worst and most dangerous situation is when all 3 are moving generally together (trending or flat) on the corrie charts as then any entries can and will be whipsawed as they battle for position.....

if all 3 are doing this but with a good directional trend then usually theres a splendid opportunity to trade CAD/AUD and NZD against the USD.....especially if the Yen is moving with USD.....(tag correlation)

respect as usual.....good hunting this afternoon
N
 
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Hi all,

Due to my lack of chart access at the moment I've managed to persuade the U.S. government to have a bank holiday today until I am back online hopefully tomorrow

sorry about inconvenience everyone....:whistling

N
 
ready to roll......

hey all

this is from my new laptop.......and tomorrow we start again !

remote access also fired up as well......fingers crossed

pass the aspirins......

N

hey JRP......the USD and Euro were tight today eh ?..........the corrie shows you were always gonna be down on
that pairing today so it was a suicide mission.....hindsights a wonderful thing !
 

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big night for GBP....its pumping up......the 15m 7am bar is testing its resolve...

gold is really trying to drive USD down a present....if those 5m S/R blow then some nice G/U buying n the cards this morning............GBP has travelled a far way up overnight though so be careful....

N
 

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gold is throwing the kitchen sink at usd and she wont fall..............hmmm

N
 

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i think usd is gona rise now for a while .....watch he breaches on yuor5m corrie 1000/1 and sell GBP assuming it fals below its support level
 
Hi all

everything worked ok re systems so this is me on my remote access to new pc......(y)

ok whats happened ?

hmm....my call earlier wasnt tooo bad actually with USD obliging and a few pippy's on the euro pair vs Usd

see below
N
 

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quick look at 4h charts for our fantastic 4.....


Yen wont be budged above that resistance line will it ?

and how far is GBP gonna keep rising ?

and how much more is Euro gonna get creamed ?.........

for the answers stay tuned readers to your favourite corrievision TV channel.....:whistling

N
 

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