Best Thread Correlation Trading - Basic Ideas and Strategies

[NVP]

EU scalp was there on the 20ma

my radar is telling me however that the Tag are tiring of falling

look at the negligable move south on tag vs that last punch North by the Dow

lucky Euro was active or no scalp there would have been had (if at all)

so watch out ..........

N

 

[NVP]

funny thing markets.............


the dow held and tag fell again.............and then the gbp rolled up its sleeves and charged north ike a bull

lovely days action......hope you enjoyed it through the eyes of my humble Fxcorrelator.........

this 5 min version goes like stink doesnt it !!! :smart:

NVP

 

[chao fu]

funny thing markets.............


the dow held and tag fell again.............and then the gbp rolled up its sleeves and charged north ike a bull

lovely days action......hope you enjoyed it through the eyes of my humble Fxcorrelator.........

this 5 min version goes like stink doesnt it !!! :smart:

NVP

call it a day,a fruitful day. "-"

 

[chao fu]

funny thing markets.............


the dow held and tag fell again.............and then the gbp rolled up its sleeves and charged north ike a bull

lovely days action......hope you enjoyed it through the eyes of my humble Fxcorrelator.........

this 5 min version goes like stink doesnt it !!! :smart:

NVP

Thanks for your analysis. Help me a lot

 

[NVP]

final word from the triple corrie


he top 2 arrows have seen sell tag most of the day so something tells me we made money on that as well (whrn the 15m signal) aligned as well

Night night sleep tight :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

mornin all

heres the 5min system that did some euro and aussie bashing overnight ........Euro being trashed outside of its core hours is a very worrying sign

this simple system is really impressing me on its recent return to the thread (its been here before but no one was that fussed)

goes to show you cant keep a good system down :smart:d

N

 

[NVP]

the triple arrow corrie has mainly been feeding off of the recent Dow falls drivng the tag team south and the Euro and GBP north............

again you cculd chose to dilute your signal by allowing only 1 tag partner to be above/below zero on the higher timeframes if they are boh aligned on the 15m and/or the 1h ..................assumingDow is supporting the trade etc etc

thats why I dont talk about pure alerts or bells and whistles for the corrie here much - as I am always looking to anticiate (or cheat/bypass) my basic rules in order to win

N

 

[NVP]

on the last 2 posts

see how the 5mn sysem bought tag but the higher TF system was mainly selling tag ?

each TF is its own world so treat it so and segregate iit that way.............perfeccly sensible to be trading both directios if you know what you are doing with proper and diligent risk, MM, and pip allocation per trade in place :smart:

N

 

[NVP]

No FT no comment :-

literally Billions of Pounds are spent paying experts to predict the future......with so many variables its still a lottery so dont worry about it, just trade what you see :smart:

oh yeah - and also carry a dictionary perhaps

I have to agree though the Euro looks a pup and you'd have to give me some serious odds to back it to be higher in relative terms to G8 this time next year

Euro looks set to win the race to the bottomBy Kenneth Rogoff
Published: January 12 2011 15:33 | Last updated: January 12 2011 15:33

Currency movements are notoriously difficult to explain, much less predict. Even so, 2010 was an exceptionally tough year. Foreign exchange participants were forced to divine idiosyncratic and conflicting policymaker preferences, to interpret rare events such as Europe’s sovereign debt woes, and to understand obscure policy instruments such as quantitative easing.

The euro/dollar rate, for example, fell from $1.45 to $1.20 in the first half of 2010, only to rise again to over $1.40 in November, before briefly dropping below $1.30 again in its current swoon. Some of this volatility can be ascribed to shifting growth data across the Atlantic. But other less concrete factors, such as Europe’s bogus bank stress tests and investor unease with the Fed’s quantitative easing, seemed to play a larger role. Whenever the favoured market explanation of a big exchange rate movement is “the Chinese are buying”, one has to wonder whether exchange rates have any anchor in long-term macroeconomic fundamentals.

Eurozone macroeconomic policy is incoherent on so many levels, it is hard to know where to begin. The basic strategy is to hope that fiscal tightening in the periphery combined with generous liquidity relief from the core will solve all ills. The only problem is that the populations of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and perhaps Spain, cannot be asked to suffer recession indefinitely so that foreign creditors can be repaid. Rather than contemplate reintroducing the drachma, the eurozone decided to celebrate the new year by taking in Estonia. Estonia is a great country, and it deserves a lot of support. I grew up on Estonian grandmaster Paul Keres’ chess books. But did it really make sense to add another emerging market at this time?

Then there is China and its quasi-fix to the dollar. At one time, China’s policy might have made perfect sense, but today the case for high growth China pegging to low growth US is hard to sustain. China’s peg engenders a plethora of distortions, tilting the economy towards export production and away from output for the domestic market. True, China has not yet experienced the sustained inflation, as it might if its real (inflation-adjusted) exchange rate truly was way out of line.

Inflation, however, seems to be taking root in a fashion that could force authorities to act much more decisively, with increasingly few alternatives to allowing a straightforward appreciation of the currency. Indeed, many fast-growing emerging markets such as Brazil and India are confronting much the same problem. They do not want their currencies to rise too quickly against the dollar, but their central banks do not want inflation to get out of hand.

How emerging markets resolve these conflicting goals will be a central theme in foreign exchange markets in 2011. Talk of “currency wars” will continue to be accompanied by ever more stringent capital controls. Look for a resurgence of the kind of parallel exchange markets that ruled the globe in the 1950s and early 1960s. In my work with Carmen Reinhart on the history of exchange rate arrangements, we found that in a great many cases, parallel markets allowed many countries a degree of floating even when the official exchange rate was fixed. This is the mirror image of the modern phenomenon whereby many countries that officially have floating rates in fact are better thought of as having pegs.

Finally, there are developed country commodity exporters such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand, whose currencies are likely to continue to appreciate as long as emerging markets continue to thrive, even with their policy inconsistencies.

All in all, 2011 is shaping up as a race to the bottom for currency values. In this currency war, does any country truly want to be the victor? No wonder gold has been so attractive. Which currency will succeed in hugely underperforming in 2011? Recognising the near impossibility of predicting exchange rates, my “money” is still on the euro. I am cautiously optimistic that Europe will find a way to manage its country bankruptcies, but there are no elegant solutions, and the possibility of political paralysis at just the wrong time is significant. The US’s quantitative easing policy may be obscure and some may see it as cause for alarm. There is a small chance of large catastrophe. But the eurozone, by contrast, has a high chance of a medium-size meltdown. The single currency may win the race to the bottom after all.

Kenneth Rogoff is a professor at Harvard University and co-author (with Carmen Reinhart) of ‘This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly’

 

[NVP]

This was my 20ma FXcorrelator review of 2010 - and naturally currencies move around in the year so it does not show what won and what lost on an overall straight up/down bet

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/for...g-basic-ideas-strategies-635.html#post1373226

heres a 2010 daily on a 850ma setting (about the closest I can get to an accrurate undistorted review of absolute currency movements with my platform settings)

GBP won in my eyes with Euro the dog currency - people quote 2010 as an annus horriblus for USD , but actually the first Quarter wasnt tooooo bad and its a disasterous Q2 & Q3 that made it really look the villain

so place your bets for 2011 :smart:
N

 

[NVP]

ok before I dissapear for a while

lean pickings recently.........a GBP sell fitted the bill at around 8.15am

AUD also signalled........but came back

perhaps later
N

 

[NVP]

as I leave i like Euro and AUD buys into a falling tag now..........let that dow rise/hold a little to confirm

N

 

[Adamus]

No FT no comment :-

literally Billions of Pounds are spent paying experts to predict the future......with so many variables its still a lottery so dont worry about it, just trade what you see :smart:

I was watching the markets last night as one does and I have 21 forex pairs on the screen. For a period of about 10 minutes, they all went down. I mean, all of them. Reading that article, I guess it makes sense! I also thought, shall I short everything? And I thought "I wonder what the fxcorrie would show?!"

 

[NVP]

I was watching the markets last night as one does and I have 21 forex pairs on the screen. For a period of about 10 minutes, they all went down. I mean, all of them. Reading that article, I guess it makes sense! I also thought, shall I short everything? And I thought "I wonder what the fxcorrie would show?!"

21 pairs ????


jees what is it a 60" screen ?

N

 

[NVP]

triple arrow is also signalling Kiwi and AUD buys

• Kiwi already extended - boat missed ?
• Aussie D worth it if dow rises again
• Euro is lurking in the bushes

time will tell.........on the A/U you need to be comfortable with a 40pip minimum stop loss to cover the retrace.........

deep pockets needed on higher timeframes so you reduce your pip per trade accordingly.......not rocket science :smart:

also do you see how the rising dow yesterday hammered the tag team south........

N

 

[NVP]

hey all

some nice moves earlier on the E/U and G/U............

anyone pick them up ?

N

 

[NVP]

triple arrow is also signalling Kiwi and AUD buys

• Kiwi already extended - boat missed ?
• Aussie D worth it if dow rises again
• Euro is lurking in the bushes

time will tell.........on the A/U you need to be comfortable with a 40pip minimum stop loss to cover the retrace.........

deep pockets needed on higher timeframes so you reduce your pip per trade accordingly.......not rocket science :smart:

also do you see how the rising dow yesterday hammered the tag team south........

N

Remember post 5175 above on the triple corrie ?

i'd look to bank a little soon as the 00 arrives

N

 

[NVP]

yep A/U back to parity now..........

 

[NVP]

I have been sent another pile of garbage from moneyweek

I have to suffer it though as the weekly mag is not a bad read and some of the articles (especially on forex Trading) make me laugh

http://www.fsponline-recommends.co.uk/page.aspx?u=affjm&tc=L970LC14&PromotionID=2147067411&

looks like all the others I've received except the name of the system

Jees £347 for old rope as if the system (which will be a simple ma based approach) actually latches onto some decent market trends during the trial period it will look ok and you are happy to have paid the dosh........the seller has nothing to lose and picks up a nice commission from the brokers he tells you to open accounts with :whistling

My Dad and Grandad (who were bookmakers and professional Gamblers in the 50's, 60's and 70's) came across every Gambling scam in the book ...(and instigated some ??)

"shotgunning" is a classic and the oldest trick in the book - watch Darren Browns excellent programme re horseracing scams as he demonstrates how it all works

N

 

[NVP]

that reminds me ............its been quiet on the Jason Fielder front recently hasnt it

(ooooo libel time)
N