Concept FX

Willy said:
..................
Am I misrepresenting or misunderstanding anything in this post?
Willy
Click to expand...

Spot on Willy. You got it.

Just a thought, but perhaps you could get Steve or Graham to take a screen shot of the daily signal page (effectively that's all the "powerful software" gives), and email it to you. That would cost you nothing, and take 2 mins!
 
Morning Willy,

I think that you are probably doing a disservice to the product by simply calling it “a signals service” and in my opinion there is far more to it than that. Of course what is being discussed could largely be described as semantics but I do understand the ‘how and why’ in respect of how people view things from the individual psychological perspective.

Despite what Sandy has stated it is actually the software which performs the analysis. Firstly you download that days prices and then the analysis is performed. Although you cannot see the internal workings you do have some control over matters. There is a risk / reward setting which can be altered.
As I tried to explain in my last post the black-box itself is essentially what is termed as ‘pattern recognition software’ – this it’s main function – to identify potential opportunities to trade which offer a statistical edge. Having identified this potential opportunity it does the maths and produces the all important order levels which then allows you to quickly and effortlessly place the orders with your chosen broker / spread bet firm. This is essentially using the Concept FX system in its most basic format and these tasks of downloading the data, performing the analysis and placing the orders can pretty much be completed in just two or three minutes each day.

You mentioned the educational aspect of the system. In my opinion this is pretty much down to personal choice. My guess is that some clients just run the system in its most basic format without taking any more interest in what the market may or may not be doing. They are just operating the system purely as wealth creation exercise and are not particularly interested in why certain trades go on to win or lose. If you are looking to learn then you can take things a stage further. For example the analysis software tells you exactly which type of signal is being generated and in which particular fx pair. This means that, if you have an interest in learning, you can go to your charting software and bring up the relevant chart. The analysis software itself appears to detect 37 different signal types. You can actually alter the settings in the software so different signal types are either ignored or shown. Personally I have them all selected and this represents the default setting.
Once a trade is shown you can obviously monitor it yourself if you have the time and inclination. What you will find is that certain signal types go through phases of success and failure. At the moment for example ‘break outs’ are underperforming and markets are tending to stay in ranges – this means that you can be slightly more careful when following the breakout signals.

Overall you will learn more than you think. If you follow things with more than a straight forward passing interest you will start to notice things which will help you with other aspects of your trading. Discipline is obviously a huge part of trading. Sandy and a few others have already mentioned that following signals and sticking to the rules are considerably harder than it first appears. It is very clear that in order to succeed in any aspect of trading these kinds of hurdles have to be overcome. In my opinion this critical aspect of trading cannot be taught. Instead you have to find your own personal way of developing this skill set. You can read books and talk with people all you want but come the end the equation is very simple; You verses The Market!

In my opinion it is actually pretty hard to value a system like Concept in monetary terms. This really is a case of individual choice. In my case I try to allocate around 10% of everything I make to research and development. To be honest this budget goes largely unspent as most of my own research is ‘time consuming’ rather ‘cash consuming’. Therefore splashing out £2,000 on Concept didn’t represent any massive commitment on my part. This doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t have felt pee’d off if the system was a total rip off! I just felt, after following the results for a good few months, that it would be interesting to add a completely mechanical trading system to my arsenal. Maybe one of the reasons I can follow it so well is because it’s not the only system which I trade with.

I hope that this answers a few more of your questions. Feel free to ask anything else.

Steve.
 
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You know that it cannot be disputed that patterns repeat over and over again. It is time consuming and very difficult to detect these patterns. Also your own personal bias will colour your analysis. Ie when the market is in a major trend upward you may well think - "It can't keep going up" although experience should be telling you that it can and often does. Obviously in a falling market, vice versa.

I believe that almost every system works, even a system based on moving averages with very unsophisticated parameters. The problem with a system using moving averages is that there will be big losses, but there will be huge gains as well!
Usually the system doesn't fail, but the user does - bailing out on a winning trade too early and letting a loser run too long. You need clear cut lines of where to enter, exit and re-enter a trade and any deviation will cost you dear in the end.

Concept looks like it could be a good system, but although everybody can handle the big gains when the market is with you, very few can handle the losses when it isn't. Many will not be able to resist cutting a trade early because it is losing or giving back some of its gains.
It amazes me how many people will consider a winning trade a loser. Eg. You open a trade and at one time are 500 pips up, stick to the rules and the trade is closed at 300 pips profit. Some will not be happy because they will look at it as they could have made 500, but finished with only 300. Instead of being happy at having a good result, they will focus on the extra 200 they could have made if they had somehow been able to predict the ideal time to close the trade. These people do not have the right frame of mind to be a trader.

If concept was available on monthly subscription at a reasonable rate, I would be prepared to give it a go. For me it is too expensive for a system that I would have to start with such a large bank to handle the inevitable losing periods.

I hope that it keeps working for you.
 
stevespray said:
Despite what Sandy has stated it is actually the software which performs the analysis. Firstly you download that days prices and then the analysis is performed.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your patience, Steve!

The picture gets clearer and clearer but I'm still not sure what they are selling. It now sounds as if most of the analysis is done on the user's PC using forex prices as its input. But forex prices are freely available to anyone. It seems unfair of Concept to disguise prices just to make customers dependent on them?

There's nothing wrong in selling a blackbox trading system, but they are selling a blackbox system you can't use on your own. In other words - a subscription.

Subscriptions aren't paid for with lump sums, you pay as you go and you can leave when you want. Systems on the other hand are sold for lump sums. You have spent the money once and for all but you can still use them if the vendor goes out of business, even if you don't know how they work.

Concept seems to want the best of both worlds at the same time. In my opinion that's unfair.

I agree you can learn more about trading than you would think from using a product like this one. I was mainly thinking about learning a trading methodology, as I mentioned in an earlier message.

Willy
 
Hi Willy,

Concept FX will not teach you a methodology as such. I assume that you are talking ‘bare bones’ methodologies here where you just start with a set of charts / prices in front of you and then have to apply a set of mechanical rules? If you search around then you will find systems available like this.

I can see your point about the subscriptions but I would suggest that this is something which you have to weigh up when you purchase the product. The running costs are not hidden so you are actually offered all the facts that you need to know to make an informed choice. The ongoing data costs work out at £10 per week so it’s nothing too drastic. Obviously I accept Sandy’s point that these ongoing costs have a far greater impact on a smaller bank and you need to consider that my comments are made based on the fact that I’ve been running the system for around 15 months now and have successfully compounded my bank to a reasonable level. Obviously once your bank gets into five figures the data costs are merely a small outlay every six months.

As I mentioned before, much of this is pure semantics, how the payments are split up or how you describe what you are actually paying for don’t have too much effect on the final outcome. In my opinion you MUST view this as a business and run it as such. All businesses have overheads and these must be considered if one is to be successful in the longer run. I know plenty of people who argue that the Government gets the best of all worlds but these same people all still choose to run businesses. If you feel that strongly then my advice is not to buy the system. If you have your heart set on a particular type of system which is methodology based then my advice is to search for that system until you find it. There is no ‘one fits all’ solution to many problems and trading certainly fits in that category.

Steve.
 
stevespray said:
As I mentioned before, much of this is pure semantics, how the payments are split up or how you describe what you are actually paying for don’t have too much effect on the final outcome. In my opinion you MUST view this as a business and run it as such. All businesses have overheads and these must be considered if one is to be successful in the longer run.
Click to expand...
Hi Steve,

Basically I agree with most of what you write in your post but I feel that there should always be a fair balance between vendor and buyer. In this case you must pay a huge sum of money for a product you don't know and can't even test drive.

It's hard to see how this benefits the client and easy to see how it benefits Concept FX. In my eyes that gives us a hint about the balance here...

I definitely agree that trading should be seen as a business but would you pay the phone company thousands of pounds just to get connected? Or the cleaners just to start cleaning your offices twice a week? Of course not, and this is part of the problem with Concept FX.

Your point about overhead is well made, because it refers to "an ongoing expense of operating a business" (Wikipedia). If Concept FX indeed was an ongoing expense which you could balance towards an (on average) ongoing income, it would be a fair deal for both parties.

In any case I'm happy to hear that you are satisfied with your results and thanks for your patience with my questions and opinions!

Willy
 
test drive

Hi Willy

if i may butt in again...the test drive we saw was on their previous 4 years results that were published on their webpage. I took that as read and decided to pay for what was probably market value for computer programmers to come up with the package we bought.

going back to their results. they were making some serious profits and i was prepared to pay my money (having little inclination of trading as a profession) but i was also willing to write off the 2k that i paid for it if it didnt work.

so far the long game has paid off and i am now up on my investment. I viewed this as long term investment and if it worked my 2k was well spent considering the time i spend receiving the alerts and putting them on.

this is the only tool i use in trading.

Graham
 
Willy,

I empathise with what you’re saying in relation to when you first buy the Concept FX system. Don’t forget that you get the first years worth of data included in that initial purchase price so you will not have to dig deep again for 12 months and hopefully in that time your bank is nicely ahead.

Whilst I understand that there are people out there who will rip you off blind you have to retain the ability to ‘sort the wheat from the chaff’ for want of a better expression. If you simply believe all the bad things that you read then you hinder your progress in moving forward.

As I already said – I understand your point re the ongoing data subscription. I guess we are forced to look at things from the vendor’s perspective. They have to keep their business ticking over going forward. I guess that data subscriptions achieve that goal perfectly. To be honest I don’t personally find £10 per week to be excessive.

You mentioned various other types of contracts which someone might enter into but in my experience the financial sphere is very different. Say you deposited your money in a managed forex fund for example where your cash was managed ‘professionally’. You would find the charges made to be a real eye opener. The money which Concept asks for is essentially a flat fee regardless of performance. In a managed fund you basically pay through the nose even if you make a loss. Most funds charge a percentage of capital each year just to manage it for you. On top of that, should they make a profit on YOUR money, you’ll find them top-skimming anywhere between 20% and 40% by way of a performance bonus. Use Google to find a few forex managed funds and then read their terms – you’ll soon see what I mean.

So really it’s a case of ‘swings and roundabouts’. At first you have your initial outlay which, in business terms, represents your ‘set up costs’ and this perhaps represents a negative. But the upside is that all your profits are yours to keep.


Steve.
 
Low start up?

I have been watching concept for a while now and it seems to work, although I think it is quite expensive fro various reasons. It appeals due it's nature of being able to set it up and go off to my day job whilst it does its business. My question is: What is the smallest account size I could hope to start with and not ghet wiped out ( assuming the usual risk management calculations etc) Have any of you started with just a few thousand? or Do I really need to invest £10K into my account first?

I took a fair hit last year when Echelon went down and am a not exactly flush right now, but reasonably keen to start again with something like this...

Help

GG
 
GG33 said:
I have been watching concept for a while now and it seems to work, although I think it is quite expensive fro various reasons. It appeals due it's nature of being able to set it up and go off to my day job whilst it does its business. My question is: What is the smallest account size I could hope to start with and not ghet wiped out ( assuming the usual risk management calculations etc) Have any of you started with just a few thousand? or Do I really need to invest £10K into my account first?

I took a fair hit last year when Echelon went down and am a not exactly flush right now, but reasonably keen to start again with something like this...

Help

GG
Click to expand...

Have a look back over this thread from about July last year. You will see posts from people that paid and started trading this system and had loss after loss. No matter what these systems promise, they are not get rich quick schemes. There will always be periods of losses with any system and you have to be prepared to accept that.
If you are looking to trade forex because you are struggling financially - don't do it.
First of all you have to decide how much you can afford as a trading bank - this means how much you are prepared to lose. If you cannot afford to lose your bank, don't even think about it.
Even if you have the best trading system in the world your worst enemy is yourself. For every trade you have to set parameters, and I can assure you that a newbie will not stick to them.
I am sure that every single person who trades forex, stockmarkets or whatever will have horror stories to tell you. We all make mistakes and if we have a few brain cells, we will learn from them.
There are a few very common mistakes and I think that we have all made them in our early days.
The first common mistake is panicking when the market moves against us. If the trade is a good trade and you have set a stop loss for good reason - ie resistance/support level, then don't worry about it until a stop is hit.
The second and worst is trading without a stoploss in forex. Many newbies have this unfounded belief that the market MUST turn and allow losses to run and run.
The 3rd common mistake is that when a trade goes into loss before moving in the expected direction, the newbie closes the trade with relief that he hasn't suffered a loss. Of course, then the trade moves as was originally expected and the newbie is kicking himself for getting out.
If you want to PM me I will give you a system for free that you can try out on a demo account. Very simple, you can do it on the Daily charts, set and leave it. The important thing is to try a system on a demo account first, but also imagine how you would feel if it was your real money that you were losing/winning. Any end of day system requires large stoplosses and do you have the mindset to cope with that?
 
Stevespray,
I know that you started the thread re Sniper Forex, but there have not been any contributions from you for that thread for some time. If you didn't stick with the system is there some reason for that?
 
Hmmm... no updates on the results page for a month and a deathly silence on here. We've now descended onto a page lower on the T2W index page too..... Even the human face of Concept itself - Mr Spray, seems to be absent. I wonder why?
I know - it must be because the guys are dragging suitcases full of cash up to the soon to be bankrupt British Banks...
Somehow, knowing Concept and the thread participants as I think I do, I suspect another reason.
Re the robots, which appears to be another love affair of some of the guys on here, - check out donnaforex, which is a good site for this kind of indulgence. There are some hilarious threads on there..... It appears the mass-market robot sellers have given up any pretence of honesty and are now taking the pi$$ as well as the dollars.

Trade price action and momentum. You know it makes sense.

I'll be returning to NY soon. But don't worry, we've just had the internet installed in the States.

Have a good day.
 
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Anyone about?

Been away and missed any signals from Concept. The results haven't been updated for a while. Is anything happening?

Just done a quick tally of the pips profit/loss posted on the concept site since I joined last year (15/8) and from the 15/8 to the end of the year they were 585 pips down.

So far this year they are up 392. So a net pip profit of 193. IF I'd taken every trade.

/Phil :rolleyes:
 
I'm still about!

Concept when through a very good period (7 winners back to back) but has now given some of that back with a series of losses. This week saw a 170 pip winner on EURJPY which was nice.

No question that Concept has had a rough patch - this is the nature of trading.

Personally I remain well ahead of the 100% mechanical system and well ahead in terms of profit / loss since I started using it back in May 08.


Steve.
 
bigphil22 said:
Just done a quick tally of the pips profit/loss posted on the concept site since I joined last year (15/8) and from the 15/8 to the end of the year they were 585 pips down.So far this year they are up 392. So a net pip profit of 193. IF I'd taken every trade.
Click to expand...

Down 585 and then up 392 - surely that's a net loss of 193 pips - unless you were trading the opposite way to their signals?

Regards - Brogden
 
The System Factory

Hi Steve,

I was wondering if you also bought their horse racing system (selecta 7) their golfing system (assett investments) their indicies program (goldline) or their stocks system (tradewin)?

All these systems are from the same camp that now heavily market CONCEPT FX - they too were very expensive, short lived email messaging services thinly veiled as systems.

I would be interested to know if you did and if you somehow got them to work for you too :?:
 
Well the golf system was a waste of money, wish I had read this thread years ago.

How did you establish that all of these things are/were from the same people - some guy called Lloyd was involved in the golf thing I seem to remember, and another techie bloke called Steve I think? I did read the advertising for the Goldline system but decided it sounded too good to be true - "free" laptop indeed!

Regards - Brogden
 
I went into Goldline's office for a demo - the guy conducting the demo told me they were part of the horse racing and golf system - I had already been caught out by their golf system.

When he was loading up the Goldline system, you could see the system loading abbreviated indicators .....RSI/MACD/VOL etc - he then told me the system didn't run on any of them, just a simple law of averages formula - needless to say I declined his offer of a 'special discount'.

I was later offered a 'special discount' for tradewin - via an assett investments email, upon further investigation I quickly worked out they were one of the same.

Concept FX is marketed exactly the same way as Goldline was, and at a similar (same) price - it didn't take too much digging to find they are once again peddling the same crap under a different name.

Regards.
 
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