Clown's Weekly 34.
- Thread starter The Dutch Clown
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confusing
When I look at the AEX daily there is room for a rise, target 514. Looking at the weekly there is a bearish divergence, as in the monthly. This is long term. If we can reach 514, it will not be before the elections in the US. Is this a sign the republicans will win?
Pacito
On the other hand, the RSI didn't sink below 40 in the daily, weekly and monthly quite some time. According to the RR we are still in positive territory.
When I look at the AEX daily there is room for a rise, target 514. Looking at the weekly there is a bearish divergence, as in the monthly. This is long term. If we can reach 514, it will not be before the elections in the US. Is this a sign the republicans will win?
Pacito
On the other hand, the RSI didn't sink below 40 in the daily, weekly and monthly quite some time. According to the RR we are still in positive territory.
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Its interesting to look at the Gann squares. This is suggesting a support at the 2x1 line, leading to a 502,x dec 10th at the square from 412. Falling through the support might bring us to 457,x dec 10th. Maybe the difference will be the elections in the US. Not that the republicans loosing will bring us down, but the same mood that will bring us down, will make the republicans loosing.
Pacito
Pacito
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gentlemen, while not being as active as i used to i'm still in it for the long term. Just for a backtest here, it seems to me that when the index is rising and the rsi14 is as well the break in the lower supportline in the rsi is most of the time followed by a backtest before the trend breaks. Just as a thought, would this last movement correlate roughly with a fifth wave, its character in rsi being weak? Sorry i dont have any charts to clearify what i'm saying, dont have the software for that anymore. If nessecary i'll try to provide them anyways.
with kind regards,
Onno
with kind regards,
Onno
Aex/dax
I believe we are in a pimary fifth wave, in an intermediate fifth wave, and probably in a minor second wave. Cycle wave should be a B. The AEX didn't touch the middle of the bollinger bands, and is still in upper territory. Same for the RSI. There is a PR in the AEX that gives a target of 515,x. The Dax is still in an uptrend almost without any corrections. Also a postive RSI.
In one of the thumbnails there is a minimum target of 508,x., in the other 512,x So the fifth wave could end somewhere between 508 and 515 around the 29th of november. Of course an extension is possible, but I will look at that once we reached the first target.
Pacito
I believe we are in a pimary fifth wave, in an intermediate fifth wave, and probably in a minor second wave. Cycle wave should be a B. The AEX didn't touch the middle of the bollinger bands, and is still in upper territory. Same for the RSI. There is a PR in the AEX that gives a target of 515,x. The Dax is still in an uptrend almost without any corrections. Also a postive RSI.
In one of the thumbnails there is a minimum target of 508,x., in the other 512,x So the fifth wave could end somewhere between 508 and 515 around the 29th of november. Of course an extension is possible, but I will look at that once we reached the first target.
Pacito
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Qwerty321 said:
??? If the counting is right (best posibility) then we will set a wave C. The first question is about wave 5. Will it be an ordinary wave 5 or an extended? That depends on the question if you consider wave 3 as extended. I don't.
So, in my opinion wave 5 could turn out to be an extended wave 5. (because one of the waves 1, 3 and 5 are usually extended, and 1 or 3 were not). Then the target is no longer the 505-515 region, but at least 560 and probably 590.
If you consider wave 3 extended, then waves 1 and 5 tend to have gains related by equality or the fibonacci ratio (Elliot Wave Principle: Frost and Prechter:Ch2,p87.)
If wave 5 is an ordinary wave 5 the highest probability will be a gain related to wave 1, in fibonacci terms. (364-217=147) 0,618x 147=90,84 1x147=147 1,618x147=237,84 ie 412 + 90=502, 412 + 147=559, 412 + 237= 649.
My vieuw is that wave 5 will be an extended one reaching at least 560. Then wave C can start.
What I do is constantly checking if the real developments are in line with my vieuw.
On the way there are some checkpoints at 502-505, 512, 518, 530. In the meantime I try to predict the timedevelopment using Gann.
Pacito
janebowles
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Qwerty321 said:
An update would be fine...
Otherwise this thread will die..
:idea:Still alive and kicking
As the timing is important, monday 20 could be a turning point. When I consider the actual movement as down, since 11/15, or sideways, since 11/8, (this is interpretation), then the turning should be a positive one.
There is still a positive reversal from 9/11 to 11/2 with a target of 515, which isn't met yet. The RSI is still in upper territory. The index didn't cross the MA26 nor the midline of the Bollinger bands. The next important date could be december 6th. (29th of november is of secondary importance.) Its quite possible that a downturn occurs on that date stretching out into next year. Its still a little to early to be sure but I keep that in mind.
I use, as you can see, Fibonacci and Gann to try to predict as close as possible.
In an uptrend I keep looking for signs of a downturn, as in a downtrend I keep looking for an upturn. My positions however are in line with the actual trend, which I think, is still up.
Pacito
PS. lunar-solar is in phase on monday, however Clown considers it being today.
The problem is that, according to me there is no new vieuw. In Elliot terms we could be in intermediate 4, possibly in intermediate 5. The vieuw I wrote 11/12 is still the same. At the very short term there could be a possibility of a sideways move (478-495), but I think we succesfully tested 491.janebowles said:An update would be fine...
Otherwise this thread will die..
As the timing is important, monday 20 could be a turning point. When I consider the actual movement as down, since 11/15, or sideways, since 11/8, (this is interpretation), then the turning should be a positive one.
There is still a positive reversal from 9/11 to 11/2 with a target of 515, which isn't met yet. The RSI is still in upper territory. The index didn't cross the MA26 nor the midline of the Bollinger bands. The next important date could be december 6th. (29th of november is of secondary importance.) Its quite possible that a downturn occurs on that date stretching out into next year. Its still a little to early to be sure but I keep that in mind.
I use, as you can see, Fibonacci and Gann to try to predict as close as possible.
In an uptrend I keep looking for signs of a downturn, as in a downtrend I keep looking for an upturn. My positions however are in line with the actual trend, which I think, is still up.
Pacito
PS. lunar-solar is in phase on monday, however Clown considers it being today.
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The Dutch Clown
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He Ho He Ho je krijgt het hier cadeau.
Pacito,
The Sun Moon phase happens depending on where you are on the earth and with some shame I have to admit that converting bits of software f.cked-up some of the dates. When located in Eindhoven the exact date and time is, November 20 at 23:17:53 so I am sorry you are right I was wrong. Now you should in fact ask yourself how relevant this is anyway and if it’s going to effect the way you look at your other instruments. Just to give you a feel for things I have compiled a Mercury Planetary Lines chart for the AEX.
It’s not so much the issue that the view has not changed dramatically it’s more that a bit of work was involved in putting together a bunch of words into an update and now having to find out that it has not been read or in fact definitely not understood. So if someone doesn’t know exactly where we are and what to expect next by what specific technique you might be in for some surprises. For the Non Dutch readers I have to explain that for our children (okay also a few Belgian) yesterday Sinterklaas has entered the country by boat in a town called Middelburg. Sinterklaas is a very old ( a couple of hundred years) Bishop from Spain who is extremely wealthy and brings presents to children. The majority of the adult population in the Netherlands besides facilitating the children celebrate the evening before Sinterklaas his birthday by exchanging presents that are hidden in what we call surprise wrappings.
Have fun t2w.
EDIT:
same chart for the DJIA
Pacito,
The Sun Moon phase happens depending on where you are on the earth and with some shame I have to admit that converting bits of software f.cked-up some of the dates. When located in Eindhoven the exact date and time is, November 20 at 23:17:53 so I am sorry you are right I was wrong. Now you should in fact ask yourself how relevant this is anyway and if it’s going to effect the way you look at your other instruments. Just to give you a feel for things I have compiled a Mercury Planetary Lines chart for the AEX.
It’s not so much the issue that the view has not changed dramatically it’s more that a bit of work was involved in putting together a bunch of words into an update and now having to find out that it has not been read or in fact definitely not understood. So if someone doesn’t know exactly where we are and what to expect next by what specific technique you might be in for some surprises. For the Non Dutch readers I have to explain that for our children (okay also a few Belgian) yesterday Sinterklaas has entered the country by boat in a town called Middelburg. Sinterklaas is a very old ( a couple of hundred years) Bishop from Spain who is extremely wealthy and brings presents to children. The majority of the adult population in the Netherlands besides facilitating the children celebrate the evening before Sinterklaas his birthday by exchanging presents that are hidden in what we call surprise wrappings.
Have fun t2w.
EDIT:
same chart for the DJIA
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I dont know if the solar-lunar has any significance. I just look at it and have it run for a while along the other indicators to see if and when it can have a contibution to my analysis. I can of course backtest it, but in my experience its just more reliable to test it in realtime because in backtesting I have to much possibilities in manipulating. A good memory is sometimes a handicap for backtesting an index you already know. Its however stunning to see several indicators pointing the same way, or come together at a certain date. I'm not really surprised because Gann and Fibonacci started from the same configuration already present in nature. More surprising is to see that Elliot counts matches with these phenomena. I supposed Elliot started from a different kind of perspective. If its true that the indexes are moving because of the same source, then Elliot also mesured the same things Gann and Fibonacci did. I'm not trying to proof cause and effect, but just trying to see what apparently is there, but hard to see without some additional instruments.
Pacito
Pacito
The Dutch Clown
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Truth or Dare?
It’s once again a period in the year for the subscription mob to hunt down prospects by screaming the word crash all over. If you feel comfortable paying someone a monthly fee to lose money trading just take your pick. And by the way this is the time of the year the day’s are getting shorter and a peak in suicides happen when the tree’s are losing leaves sensible people get depressed.
Does Technical Analysis work or Advanced Technical Analysis or Financial Astronomy or Cycle Analysis or what ever you use? It does not really matter just use what works for you as long as you can make a profit in stead of constant losses. And since I have been working with all the above mentioned techniques I can tell you there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that they all work and the bad news is that they all do not work all the time and always accurate. So it comes down to a conclusion of one of the all time best traders Mr W D Gann who states his goal is to capture the exact point in time and price where markets turn his objective though is it to make money. In this respect I would like to add that no trading position is also a position or: better missed money than lost money. In the place I was born and raised people do not speak English but I have learned the difference between goal and objective in the international business arena as part of what the insiders know as GOSPA.
If you really understand this, you do not need to pay any guru to help you lose money in stead you can make money yourself just by identifying higher probability area’s in the markets you trade. So are the main international indices going to move upwards forever, unlikely; are the international markets going to correct downwards, likely; are the markets going to crash, just one of the many possibilities ; when is the current bull run going to end, it takes a lot of hard work to get to a date with a likely or unlikely status.
The thing that puzzles me is why do people continue to pay money to the screaming subscription mob or individual that so obviously is spreading the totally wrong message. Is it that one prefers to have an exact point in time that is false when there or is it that people can’t understand the statistics in combining a number of techniques that never have a 100% hit rate. The arrogant b.st.rd Clown I am I have made it my objective to do only trades that win and the relevant underlying criteria to do so were spread free of any charge.
So Truth or Dare?
It’s once again a period in the year for the subscription mob to hunt down prospects by screaming the word crash all over. If you feel comfortable paying someone a monthly fee to lose money trading just take your pick. And by the way this is the time of the year the day’s are getting shorter and a peak in suicides happen when the tree’s are losing leaves sensible people get depressed.
Does Technical Analysis work or Advanced Technical Analysis or Financial Astronomy or Cycle Analysis or what ever you use? It does not really matter just use what works for you as long as you can make a profit in stead of constant losses. And since I have been working with all the above mentioned techniques I can tell you there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that they all work and the bad news is that they all do not work all the time and always accurate. So it comes down to a conclusion of one of the all time best traders Mr W D Gann who states his goal is to capture the exact point in time and price where markets turn his objective though is it to make money. In this respect I would like to add that no trading position is also a position or: better missed money than lost money. In the place I was born and raised people do not speak English but I have learned the difference between goal and objective in the international business arena as part of what the insiders know as GOSPA.
If you really understand this, you do not need to pay any guru to help you lose money in stead you can make money yourself just by identifying higher probability area’s in the markets you trade. So are the main international indices going to move upwards forever, unlikely; are the international markets going to correct downwards, likely; are the markets going to crash, just one of the many possibilities ; when is the current bull run going to end, it takes a lot of hard work to get to a date with a likely or unlikely status.
The thing that puzzles me is why do people continue to pay money to the screaming subscription mob or individual that so obviously is spreading the totally wrong message. Is it that one prefers to have an exact point in time that is false when there or is it that people can’t understand the statistics in combining a number of techniques that never have a 100% hit rate. The arrogant b.st.rd Clown I am I have made it my objective to do only trades that win and the relevant underlying criteria to do so were spread free of any charge.
So Truth or Dare?
The Dutch Clown
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making money
I had once again a blast today .... viva Brown, Elliott, Gann and some others....
Must have been the name since this is Trade to Win.
I had once again a blast today .... viva Brown, Elliott, Gann and some others....
Must have been the name since this is Trade to Win.
