Clown's 2007 outlook is work in progress

[The Dutch Clown]

Maandag 5 maart

Without any announcement GJN his daily column today has been written by someone else and please do read the disclaimer at the bottom so you know how to read/use the column.
Attached the intraday chart for today and trending signals. The hourly signals will change some more due to the gap opening this morning.

10-11u rrt = - rrr = 476,50 rrtc > 479,97 ; zo eerst nog maar eens een lekker bakkie
11-12u rrt = - rrr = 474,97 rrtc > 478,25
12-13u rrt = - rrr = 474,69 rrtc > 477,74
Let’s include the downside potential generated by the Positive Divergence note that this is the extreme and the more relevant one is formed by the projected: extreme 452,57 projected 468,59.
13-14u rrt = - rrr = 474,51 rrtc > 477,34 pde = 452,13 pdp = 467,71
Take a moment and think Elliott pattern like described in the weekly outlook wave 4.
14-15u rrt = - rrr = 474,22 rrtc = 476,88 pde = 453,54 pdp = 468,54
15-16u rrt = - rrr = 474,17 rrtc = 476,65 pde = 449,25 pdp = 466,77
Update chart and also notice the derivative Oscillator.
16-17u rrt = - rrr = 474,12 rrtc = 476,47 pde = 448,81 pdp = 466,84
17-Clo rrt = - rrr = 473,46 rrtc = 476,39 pde = 447,21 pdp = 466,48


PS.
Cassandra,
How I think about JS you can read in post 47.

 

[Cassandra]

Without any announcement GJN his daily column today has been written by someone else and please do read the disclaimer at the bottom so you know how to read/use the column.
Attached the intraday chart for today and trending signals. The hourly signals will change some more due to the gap opening this morning.

10-11u rrt = - rrr = 476,50 rrtc > 479,97 ; zo eerst nog maar eens een lekker bakkie
11-12u rrt = - rrr = 474,97 rrtc > 478,25

Dear Clown,

how do you think about this?

http://www.jstas.com/2007-03-02 AEX div.htm

With great thanks

 

[cold or warm]

The End ??

Dear DC and other members,

Could it be the end of the trip to the basements ? Time to look up again? Not quite sure but think it is possible.

Have fun

KvKd

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Dinsdag 6 maart nieuwe ronde nieuwe kansen.

“The end is near and now I face the final curtain” or even better “ an other one bites the dust” The movement yesterday found a pause at the bottom of the weekly 307,31 KVKD + trending area so we are in for some entertainment. Mind you the range rule trending in the bear range is still trending negative. The first signs of a complete 5 wave count downwards are there. The 512,47 intraday trend line is above the present AEX value and as I pointed out before we should also watch the 512,38 intraday trend line since it acts as a double top. The Derivative Oscillator has become positive and now either returns, find it’s peer level resistance or moves up which might conjunct with the intraday trend line so we will have some guidance.

We start today with:

09-10u rrt = - rrr = 473,42 rrtc = 476,33 pde = 448,31 pdp = 467,25

We have a new game since the AEX has left the bear range rule area, considering the overall trend is negative we should be looking for potential trend change levels in the bull range rule area. Three other observations how ever are presently more relevant a) the two intraday trend lines and their Gann Fans of which the 512,47 one did the resistance job this first hour of trading b) the re-appearance of an old “friend” the first of a number of negative divergence lines and c) page 58 of the book . Note that the pdp and pde will return once the page 58 will sort it’s full blown effect. So let’s put the focus of attention on the page 58 potential which provides two numbers 1) the AEX value that needs to be over scored to generate one of the New School goodies 2) the AEX value in the intermediate bull range that functions as trend change where the goodies signal becomes less obvious, mind you that there are a number of different possibilities here. To keep things straight forward I have taken some of the outer limits and left a number of in between levels out they pop up when appropriate.

10-11u Goodies level > 482,26 bullrrtc > 489,28
11-12u Goodies level > 481,96 bullrrtc > 488,48
The Derivative Oscillator scored a higher value and the thing that’s sort of puzzling me is the question how good the thing really is and whether or not the Reversal Signaling applies since if it does well what can I say. The 512,47 intraday trend line is still very much alive and kicking for the bears and in this respect I have pointed out the relevance of time.
12-13u Goodies level > 481,74 bullrrtc > 487,80
With so many tools to help out the simple ones are easily overlooked so I scaled a 469,85 Gann Fan and attached the chart.
13-14u Goodies level > 481,59 bullrrtc > 487,47
The Derivative Oscillator seems to pause and now needs the confirmation, however the goodies level has not been met yet.
14-15u Goodies level > 481,41 bullrrtc > 486,87
15-16u Goodies level > 481,34 bullrrtc > 486,95
“It’s such a perfect day” la la la la la la…. The Derivative Oscillator is coming of it’s high so if we will be obtaining our goodie for the week or should I say month it probably will be at divergence which by itself is an other treat. One of the goodies I made myself is an indicator which shows potential and this is building up nicely so, just an other piece of the puzzle. For those of you who might feel all this is a bit too sophisticated, have a look at the Fast & Slow Stochastics and the ADX. He Ho He Ho
16-17u Goodies level > 481,15 bullrrtc > 486,36 someone told me once that all great things come fast and hard, I must say though the building of those things is something else.
17-Clo Goodies level > 481,12 bullrrtc > 486,79 come on

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Voor meneer Nol1.

RDSA.

You might not have been aware of it the Positive Divergence that served as your buying signal in the daily chart survived the attack on it, to give you an idea on March the 7th RDSA will have to close < 23,93 to tackle the PD line. If RDSA will close < 23,67 by the end of this week (note that’s Friday’s close) the trending situation becomes more negative not to close your position rather define an exit strategy providing the trend does not change in that specific scenario. To look upwards RDSA will have to close > 24,64 by the end of this month to move forward and in order to change the negative bear range rule trending from negative into positive is will have to close > 25,68.

ASML

As opposed to RDSA ASML has no Positive Divergence in the daily chart. In the monthly chart ASML did not succeed in changing the trend in the bull range rule from negative into positive and left the range negatively trending. To give you some feel ASML needs to close > 18,37 by the end of the month in order to return into the bull range. ASLM is negatively trending although I would not suggest to short it yet only when it does not succeed to change the trend in the move up which I agree can be expected. If however the turn will be < 17,06 and > 14,64 by Friday’s close you will find a reversal signal in the chart if not it might be slightly later or otherwise reconsider.

Please note that a finished new data bar will immediately result in the given stock values becoming obsolete.

EDIT:
Mister Nol1,

This is a bit more than the answer you are looking for.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Woensdag 7 maart 2007

It seems to me that this is one of these points where the used tools need to deliver so I am in for an exiting day and will watch the anticipated signals like a hawk. Basically the first issue to be cleared is whether or not the wave 4 option is or isn’t an option at all at the 38,2% retracement level 486,13. The Derivative Oscillator should show negative divergence. The 469,85 Gann Fan will probable hit the 2x1 line which preferably conjuncts with the goody signal which itself could not be more perfect when within the bull range rule trending negatively. However as always I am prepared for the complete different scenario as well so: “ Let’s play darts”.

09-10u goodies level > 480,92 bullrrtc > 486,19
10-11u goodies level > 480,84 bullrrtc > 485,73
There are times everything seems to be working like clockwork and honestly the Swiss clock works so well that I tend to become a bit scary, what have I missed. This morning we received a bonus trade which is running now I have attached the chart to work with for today. Just simply eyeball the chart and count abc.
11-12u goodies level > 480,81 bullrrtc > 485,36
12-13u goodies level > 480,83 bullrrtc > 485,24 no such thing as an easy ride.
13-14u goodies level > 480,79 bullrrtc > 484,94
The Derivative Oscillator showed balls and indicated that the race continues even tough the AEX moved below the 489,85 1x1 Gann Fan line. Mind you it’s worth while to have a chart open of the SP-fut with standard BB.
14-15u goodies level > 480,75 bullrrtc > 484,60
Now the Derivative Oscillator signals a warning that is not so sure anymore. There still is one piece to hold on to and that’s the time crossing of several beauties at 16-17u.
15-16u goodies level > 480,72 bullrrtc > 484,29
Just before they open I visited Yank’s-Land quickly and found that they are ahead of the game and need the confirmation to wrap this one up. Since we have so much problems to do it ourselves my guess is we once again need some help from over there.
16-17u goodies level 480,79 bullrrtc > 484,06
Phase 1 has been completed we have our goody now so we have three scenario’s a) receiving an even better goody including the confirmation of the negative range rule trending b) receiving an even better goody with a trend change c) this is it and will have to do with it and guard the goody exit.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Een rustig dagje traden.

Yesterday we arrived in Goody-land so now the million dollar question is which one should I pick. In trading there are no simple questions however if you use the presented outlines you should be able you find a nice one. To be absolutely straight I have to mention that there is as always the distinct possibility that things evolve differently so we need to keep in touch with the trend. It strikes me that this thread seems to have become more like a blog which is not what it is supposed to be. So I am going to enjoy my trade to win. Did anyone look at the stars recently?

Have fun.

 

[Pacito]

The moment I see another trend than my prediction I will post again.
Pacito

 

[cold or warm]

some feed back ??

Dear Dutch Clown,

Be sure that I would not like to read only and not willing to give my contribution to you thoughts and this thread but............you are way ahead of me. Try to stick to the new TA according to the Brown's book and make it my own in every detail and trading with help of RSI and Stochastic. Enough for me at the moment.
This make me look at the charts now (FESX50) and my thoughts are that we might have seen the pull back today.
From 26 Febr until 05 March, the down.
At 05 march, I wrote that it could be the end of it. Pull back until today and now my quest is: Are we going down again and most of all, where is the end again.
Hourly FESX50 March shows me retracement at 38,2
RSI again until nearly 65
Very high stochastics.

Think it is enough to be carefull what is happening in the rest of the day and trading according to it. Might change when it is not going like i think it should do.

The attachment shows what i mean.

Allways open for comment and please do so.

Have fun

KvKd

 

[nol1]

geen blog maar geen kennis....

Dear Clown & other participants and readers of this thread,

Since the opening line of post #1 is: 'In this thread it is welcomed to participate in discussions on different techniques based on bidirectional communication.', I've kept silent for a long time. The active writers in this thread are lightyears ahead of me. It is only since a year or so that I started an interest in technical analysis. My background is in option trading and it has always been my belief that there is money to be made in trading without knowing anything about the underlying, wether it is fundamental or technical. I started trading fresh out of university in '96 and since then I've not been proven wrong. If there is any interest in a discussion about (option) trading techniques (although I do not believe this is the place) I'm very much willing to participate. When I've done my homework and have come to an acceptable level on some technical analysis techniques you'll also here from me again. Till that time I'll be an active reader who appreciates this thread very much.

Kind regards,
nol1

 

[The Dutch Clown]

niet te hebberig worden

Okidoki,

15-16u Long stop-win < 487,85
pats
16-17u Short stop entry or > 488,39 first support 487,32 second 486,77 third 486,16
note the 1x1 469,85 Gann line and the Derivative Oscillator divergence for entry signal.
A picture says more than a thousand words.

PS.
Yep Pacito I agree let's go to the Nol1 school.

Pacito,

Try to look at the differences as apposed to the similarities so maybe the attached chart might help from a trending perspective and also notice where the AEX was coming from in both time intervals. Fair enough one day to go and the last entry point is final.

 

[Pacito]

Dear Clown & other participants and readers of this thread,

Since the opening line of post #1 is: 'In this thread it is welcomed to participate in discussions on different techniques based on bidirectional communication.', I've kept silent for a long time. The active writers in this thread are lightyears ahead of me. It is only since a year or so that I started an interest in technical analysis. My background is in option trading and it has always been my belief that there is money to be made in trading without knowing anything about the underlying, wether it is fundamental or technical. I started trading fresh out of university in '96 and since then I've not been proven wrong. If there is any interest in a discussion about (option) trading techniques (although I do not believe this is the place) I'm very much willing to participate. When I've done my homework and have come to an acceptable level on some technical analysis techniques you'll also here from me again. Till that time I'll be an active reader who appreciates this thread very much.

Kind regards,
nol1

I will be looking forward to your contibution. The site is called trade 2 win. It doesn't matter how you do that. It's the winning that counts. As far as I'm concerned, every way to achieve that is welcome.
Pacito

 

[cold or warm]

nog een kans ??

DDC,

Even with the few rules i use with the trading, there are results possible.
Only adjust some in time and the nice things coming again.

chart 5 min. FESX50

You could see the decision moments.

KvKd

Where is "the Master" ?? Anyone knows ??

 

[Pacito]

11

Dear Cold or Warm. Nice post. You're warm, very warm. But you made the circles in the wrong places. At least, that's what I think. Just watch the bollingers narrowing.
Pacito

Striking similarity with may/june.

Even the candle we made today,
we also did the same in may.
and if history repeats itself,
the day to watch will be March 11

 

[nol1]

een kloddertje opties hier...een kloddertje opties daar

First of all, let me start with a thank you for the invite. It’ll be my pleasure trying to make a usefull contribution. To do so I’ll start with a brief insight on my background and trading beliefs. As mentioned before my belief is that there is money out there, wether it’s in a bull-, a bear-, a choppy or a dead market. The thing is, the way I do my trading is not an exact science and since it is called trading my position may vary couple of times during one trading day. There are however a certain kind of rules and restrictions that I always (sometimes am obliged to) follow. Just to be clear, understand that I trade for a living. I started out in early ’96 in the open outcry system as a market maker and was lucky to be there during the ’97-’99 years when you might as well could call it ‘stealing’ actually. Nowadays I do my trading from home, but still try to see and approach it as work. I belief anyone who approaches it differently, or simply has not got the time to actively monitor his position, should not be trading options for the short term. First restriction is an immediate consequence from not being a mm anymore. I do not have a clearing but simply trade via an internet brokerage account. So I do not have the advantage of professional ‘haircut’ being calculated for my open position, but am limited to the margin calculations my broker uses, just like any other private trader. The consequences being (exept from paying more per contract): A) always have to cover the up- and down- ends (at least for the big parts). This is actually a good thing ‘ieder nadeel heb z’n voordeel’ cause I also strongly believe in ‘be prepared for the totally unexpected’ and I do not want to be washed away every now and then. Having a broker with a strict margin policy is a good ‘stok achter de deur’. B) I cannot do my delta’s unlimited the way I would want to (with futures) so I have to either take the profit (or loss) or get the delta’s from other options with the disatvantage of not being pure delta’s but also containing all different greeks. Furthermore some ‘rules’ I try to keep to myself. These rules are not strict and every now and than I break them, but I try to keep them in the back of my mind. First of all I try to trade without having an opinion. Because this is impossible I trade with an opinion and in the back of my mind knowing that I’m actually wrong at least 50% of the time (this is what I would like to change and is the reason for my being interested in the new TA techniques). Actually admitting that you’re wrong half the time makes it easier not to be to stubborn. Than, because I’m wrong half of the time, I want to make money even if I’m wrong, or at least have an advantage when it runs against me. So I trade ‘premie short’, which means I earn money with the passing of time and nothing happening (who doesn’t want that). I do this with the shortest expirations possible (thank you euronext for the ax-series), which is the week and 1-st month series. Problem with the week sometimes is that there aren’t enough strikes for the proper coverage (like last week) in which case I have to seek other protection. Furthermore the erosion of premium is the strongest from the last thursday afternoon (after macro-economic data) till expiration the next day. I try not to have a too big position over the weekend and on monday and tuesday (with an atm straddle under 5 euro on a friday afternoon even I cannot resist to go against my rules) and generally build a position during the week, sometimes even only on friday itself. The last couple (6/7) of months volatility was very low so I started a vega position in the 9 and 12 month (rolling it over every 3 months) wich I used as coverage for extended premie-short and with wich I only traded the delta’s (funny thing: much to my surprise it didn’t cost that much money over the last half year and last week it turned to be a little goldmine....didn’t cash it all however (half of it)...but I think (oops there’s an opinion) volatility will come back). Last week I was ‘premie short’ as of monday in ax1 at the 507,5-510 level. Downside was covered with the 502,5 put (2 to 1). When the 507 broke (oops another opinion) I played the delta’s to the downside (actually only gave the futures at 505.6). The three days wiht gaps down I started with the advantage of having my short 507,5 puts completely covered with short future-delta’s (that was luck) combined with the short delta’s from the 502 puts (expect the unexpected). From there on it has been a feast to be able to ‘write the panic’ and during the days invest in some protection. Even having the movement up missed from ‘grofweg’ 468-476 the strategy turned out to be very profitable. But this is all history now. Tomorrow is a new day. Current position serves well with an expiration between 87,5 and 90, but anything can happen


That's it for now.....have to get my wife from work.....try to put some more thoughts on trading in next couple of days

 

[stjekel]

Newbie willing to learn

Although just being a relative novice/amateur to TA, I am trying to learn by listening, reading and by application through trading in the market place. I thereby focus my learning not only on entry and exit signals based upon TA, but als on money management rules to properly manage risk.

I am still somewhat puzzled by what has been developed by you Clown, but I will share how I look at the market and will be curious to see where we have similar views and where they differ, and to understand what differences in models have led to such different opinions.

First I think many differences originate from the different time frames people use, and that are never or hardly ever mentioned in the posts. Yes, medium term trend can be up, although short term trend is downward... I therefore feel it is abolutely required to mention timeframes in the analyses and to relate them to the type of trades you make. I can primarily be characterized as an "intraday AEX week option/FTI swingtrader" with typically one to several entries and exits per day and never more than two different option contracts at any one time. So I look at longer/medium term charts and indicators only to indentify key levels during the day. For the rest I am looking at very short term charts and indicators. And again, longer/shorter does not mean anything absolute!

For main entry and exit signals I mainly use simple "old school" techniques adjusted for my time frame and use, which is why I will refer to them as myIndicator ;-)
- myMA: MA and MA crossings with parameters matching my trading time frame and positioned within the same approach at a larger time scale
- myMACD: MACD with specific parameters matching my trading profile
- myPSAR: Parabolic SAR for sensing entries and in use as my main trailing stop loss
Confirmation on the above signals is obtained by looking at FTI volume, OBV, myATR and myRSI
Maybe less "perfect", but it just needs to allow me to make money instead of being perfect...

My main issues (I'll be honest with you) are:
- not using my own rules mentioned above (stupid me)
- discipline (applying discretion to my own indicators)
- adding to loss-making positions, and
- not knowing how to optimize slippage with time frame for trading signals

Now on my view on the market (I always look at FTI, not AEX itself) based upon the above:

YD: year view with daily chart:
- on 28 feb 2007 the FTI fell out of uptrend (from 14 june 2006) with temporary low at 470.1 on 5 march, finding support on low of 1 dec 2006. In short-term uptrend since then (4 days of green candles). Now approaching resistance of a low (491.25) at 10 jan, which could happen tomorrow or monday.
- MA is directed downward and short term MA crossed long term MA downward -> short signal on daily basis. MACD signal and bars indicate short position as well at this time frame. Volume, OBV, RSI and ATR all confirmed the move on 27 feb. MyRSI has since indicated reversal (last few days and still directing that way)

What will bring tomorrow?
With the danger of being wrong and shot I will give my view on tomorrow. This is NOT a prediction, it is a background view which I use to position my own trading signals and decisions during the day (for instance to be aware whether I am trading against a "longer" term trend or signal).

W15: week view with 15 minute chart
- Crossed 38.2% retracement level from high end of feb. Upward trend still intact, tomorrow going from 485.7 up to 489.7. Resistance from 10 jan low at 491.25 (coinciding with first resistance level in Pivot Point approach and close to 50% retracement level). Could indicate ascending triangle with possible breakout to higher levels.
- myMA and myMA-X-ing still provide long signal but myMACD turned slightly negative at the end of todays session. myPSAR is still positive with a stop loss level at 487.9
- Volume still confirms current uptrend with higher volumes on rising prices. However, myATR (volatility) continues to drop and indicates a possible change of direction. myRSI has also dropped below my indicator line indicating that we need to be aware of a possible change.

2D5: two-day view with 5 minute chart and D1: day view with 1 minute chart.... These are what I look at when I trade. No use discussing this here as it is too dynamic anyway.

I will not put this out everyday in such detail, but will try to post a summary if I expect to trade the next day (depends upon my working schedule) as it forces me to construct my background vision for the trades I will do on that day. If it doesn't help you, at least it will put some discipline in my trading decisions ;-)

I welcome any constructive comment, improvements, drawbacks, etc. on the above approach and views. Good luck trading you all!

Stjekel

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Vrijdag 9 maart.

Thanks folks this is what I need some food for thoughts so I will have to think, Now I need to prepare for an other lovely day trading for a living so I will come back to you on several issues at a later point in time. One clarification on the used timeframes from my part, I start a trade always as a scalp and once it runs I judge it by the Short Term criteria to see if it will survive in that timeframe, etc etc. Secondly it’s required to have multiple timeframe analysis and use it like the crossing of different techniques the crossing of timeframes is a revelation as well.

Preparing for the next one we must look at the short side rather than the long side so we can define a number of thresholds but the main issue to watch is to cover is the trend correctly. From one of the used techniques we can generate two levels that will have to prove relevance first one I will call the accelerator level (acc) and the second decision level (dl). The decision level functions as a magnet and the price either convergences or divergences to it so as you probably might imagine I am working on a way to cover the strength of the magnet and the moment the price changes from divergence into convergence. But first of all we need to have our turning level confirmed since we are so close to the 50% retracement level 491,16 by either a) a turn at the 1x2 512,47 and/or somewhere in between 1x2 512,38 Gann lines b) dropping below the 469,85 1x1 Gann line. Once in we need to focus on the difference in a swing within the upswing or a more serious down swing mind you I am not talking about 410 here (yet). A peep at Yank’s-Land tells us the DJIA did not even meet it’s 38,2% retracement level at an RSI high of 62,83 which tells us to be alert for a swing in the swing. So let’s play darts.


09-10u SW 489,23 acc 488,66 dl 484,47
Please mind that these values are premature and desperately need turn confirmation.
10-11u SW 492,61 acc 490,47 dl 484,74 rrsl 486,74
Note that acc now has become resistance and the 1x1 469,85 Gann line too which is closer !!
The AEX found support at a range rule level (rrsl) which projected is the above AEX price. The Derivative Oscillator has arrived at the decision level.
11-12u SW 492,21 acc 489,83 dl 485,04 rrsl 486,87
Did scale a 489,93 Gann Fan put the chart up later have to run and do some other stuff now.
14.05u I allow myself just to post a chart and trust you get the picture.
15.10u thrown out by the white line and enjoyed one of the fti benefits enough market and reasonable spread ever tough it widens at exciting times. Now looking for Negative Divergence in the favorite indicator and zero Derivative Oscillator which thereafter has to drop. Only worry is Yank’s-land situation see above thoughts. wave 4 and 5
16.00u
The updated chart the DJIA met it’s 38,2% retracement level so short with an extreme tight exit line, see the green on at the top side of the chart. Before close of business we need to have confirmation (definitely below 1x1 469,85 white Line and even better below 1x2 512,38 dotted yellow line) of direction if not close shorts and next week new game. There is a distinct possibility that the DJIA might want one of the other retracement levels as well.

Have a nice weekend.

 

[stjekel]

What a day...

What a bizar day it was for me. Finally made the decision to get to a more formal approach to my trading decisions, finally prepared a background to my trading decisions... gues what... some French *&^%$£ electriciens (as I am living in Paris) decided to cut the current this morning which disrupted my Internet connection and ruined my Livebox/modem (dead)... no connection whole day, no phone for about an hour... Only was able to get back on-line at 16:30/16:45 or so after having physically exchanged the modem. Tx to French electricians :-(

So only did a small trade at the end of the day (small profit but ok to give me back my good feeling which was so negative during the day without connection...).

Hope your day was better. I finished my week with 24 trades of which 58% profitable. Due to not respecting my own stop loss after a misread entry in the middle of the week, I finished the week more or less as I began it after having been profitable 4 out of 5 days. Learned some good lessons that I should turn into profits next week.

Have a good weekend. I will try and do some homework again to profit from next week's expected movements. But now it's time to enjoy Paris during the weekend.

Stjekel

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Blijven lachen

Stjekel,

Forget about the French public workers they have not yet experienced the facts of life in which they will be informed that they will have to work until they drop. The French government forgot to reserve money for their retirement funding so if you feel you have seen something you are in for a blast.

When ever Mamaloe and I travel to the Dordogne I always have my spare set with me which includes a power generator (gas powered) and a mobile phone with data connectivity. In the evening she claims the generator in case of a power interruption and I confront her with the romantic feeling candle light should bring out the best in us.

From my career life I adopted and transformed my adagium into “ a trader is as good as his next trade” so happy hunting. So I attached especially for you the Yanks-Land struggle.

Now I have a meeting with Jim and Jack….. cheers
Have a nice weekend.

 

[stjekel]

Interpretation, interpretation...

5Y-W

No news on the long term front. Still within uptrend with strong reaction this week on the drop of the week before.
It should be noted however, that the volumes with which last week's drop was accompanied were far higher than for instance when looking at the drop in weeks 47 and 48 of last year (end of November, beginning of December) and that although there was strong price reaction this week, it was accompanied with less volume than for instance in the week 50 reaction of last year. So interesting to note volume (again in FTI contracts) was up on the negative side, and that volume was less in the reaction than it was in the December 2006 reaction.

Y-D

Uptrend since low on 5/3 is still intact and still moving toward the resistance at 491.25 and even spiking above this level (and the 50% retracement level) on Friday (but closing below this level). This critical level will remain to be significant in the market movements for Monday and Tuesday as it crosses there with the uptrend line.

myMA and myMACD indicate overall trend since 27/2 is still down with myMACD and myRSI indicating loss of some upward speed. myRSI is not getting close to the earlier levels indicating the current upswing could just be correctional and a move downward may be expected. It is now at the level at which it also was after the first upswing after the drop in May 2006 (confirming your views on a possible second downturn Pacito). Not being an expert on this but I believe this relates to the RR technique (thank you for telling me if I am right or not)

Friday's FTI volume was substantial compared to the 4 previous days, still indicating market support for the current uptrend.

myATR is still high which could indicate that some consolidation in the first few days of the next week is at order in order to let the market "cool down". Combining this with the resistance and trend lines, and the loss of momentum, I would not be suprised to see some sideways movement in the beginning of next week.

If we break through the resistance new targets may be 494.45 and then 497.0, the 61.8% retracement level. After that we can find 500.0 (low of 27/2).
When really looking further into the future, an upscenario might include touching the previously existing uptrendline from 14/6/06 (which is indicated in traditional TA: "support becomes resistance") which could happen at around 507.2 where the current uptrend crosses the previous longer term uptrend (at around 19/3). I will not look any further than this for now as myRSI first has to prove it can go back across its earlier support during the uptrend.

W-15'

As said, the uptrend is still intact and the FTI found support at this level throughout the week. The fact is has found support there already often makes the trendline more significant. Again, interesting dasy ahead of us in the beginning of the week, where the FTI needs to deal with the uptrend and the 491.25 resistance.

When looking at volume, it indicates there is still market support for the current upswing as volumes tend to be higher on rising prices.

myMA and myMACD indicate uptrend still present, although slowly losing power, and myRSI showing some very slight ND although it still went to the overbought region.

2D-5'

Again, uptrend was confirmed, particularly on Friday where the FTI bounced of the uptrendline on the 14:30 numbers and after PD on myRSI (a pity I couldn't trade at that time...). It thereby also broke through the earlier highs of Thursday and Friday morning (489.8) finding support there at the end of Friday. The 491.25 level was broken as well in that move, but did not hold as support. The presence of the 50% retracement level in the same area seemed to have added to the existing resistance.

It will be interesting to see of during the early trading hours on Monday can stay above the support at 489.8 and the current uptrend line (running from about 488.7 to 491.25 from 8:00 to about 14:30 on Monday) and it will break the resistance level again to go to the 50% retracement zone at around 15:30.


Thank you for sharing thoughts in this thread. I am still wondering whether I am doing the right thing analyzing the FTI instead of the AEX (knowing I am trading futures and options based upon the FTI).
Any thoughts on this? Is this right or wrong?

Secondly, I am not happy yet with the trading signals I get from my indicators. I will continue working on optimizing/backtesting them and/or adding/deleting indicators. Any suggestions / ideas / constructive questions / hints are more than welcomed!

Thirdly, I am still struggling with interpretation sometimes. Trying to get a better grip on RSI signals, divergence and range rules, but find it difficult to track all of them during the day while trading - need more eyes. In fact looking for ONE indicator that combines all of it ;-) ... don't we all ;-)

I am off now. Have a good weekend,

Stjekel