Clown's 2007 outlook is work in progress

[Pacito]

December 22 RSI 55,1184 AEX 490,77.
January 10 RSI 50,3434 AEX 492,49.
January 3 RSI 65,5273 AEX 501,35 PR
Goal 492,49-490,77+501,35= 503,07 met on january 15.

January 10 RSI 50,3434 AEX 492,49
January 19 RSI 65,6563 AEX 507,12
January 29 RSI must fall below 50,3434 and AEX must be higher than 492,49, then a PR will be formed, keeping in mind that the AEX should not be lower the 30st.


Pacito

 

[The Dutch Clown]

week 5 alweer het gaat weer hard.

For some time now I seriously question the AEX movement upwards due to the continuing divergence in the favorite indicator. It has to be said that the GJN analysis has shown an impressive improvement as apposed to last year he now considers the trend more important than the divergence. And this is precisely what has changed last week the short term trend now is negative there is no question about it, confirmation of second and third phase are in as well.

Last year in the period where GJN did favor divergence and looked at 3xx I myself did ride the Elliott Waves and they told me differently. Guess what we have a similar situation presently where the best scoring Elliott scenario has an impulsive wave (1) from 409,56 to 498,45 and a corrective wave at 470,54 (2) meaning that we currently are having an impulsive wave (3) up. As you might know I have questioned that scenario right from the start and always kept the possibility open that the second wave has not been completed yet. There is a bouquet of reasons to back this up and most of them you can find already in the above posts.

Since mid December (yes Sirs you will have to go back a bit further) you will find a Negative Reversal Signal in the EOD chart the exit of this signal has been tested numerous times and each and every try failed meaning that the Signal remains valid. From a trending perspective that’s something like a sign not to be missed even if according to the strict ruling this timeframe trend is positive. Even if you miss the NR signal your bell should definitely ring looking at the chart from a trending perspective. Now before you are changing your whole position from long to short you should be aware that there is a Positive Reversal Signal in the weekly chart and that’s the one backing up the 512. Some reengineering on the Positive Reversal will learn that if the AEX closes lower than 483 on Friday the scenario becomes a bit negative due to the fact that the upward stimulation falls out of the system. Trust you have enough basic indicator knowledge to realize the implications of these calculations during next week and after. Basically one can define something like a trading range with a routing within that range that provides the guideline to perform the Trades to Win.

Last week the less civilized part of the IEX community had a go at GJN in such a way that I could not help myself and broke the ban in order to demonstrate how Technical Analysis New School can work to perform winning trades. So let’s take it from last Friday where the AEX turn was identified as an entry for a long trade. Followed by the DJIA as the perfect slave to the master index – joke – as a sort of comfortable confirmation so the weekend is spend with an excellent feeling regarding the trade position. From a traders perspective we are looking for a next reasonable target and if you have no position a next trading entry based on as many objective criteria possible.

From an Elliott Wave perspective I attached the preferred wave count from 509 as an invitation to Believe to join us here on a regular basis to exchange thoughts on the waves. For next week I allow myself the liberty to look at the wave count in more detail starting from 496,62 as the intraday chart we ended up with last Friday provides me with the indications that the wave pattern will adapt in that way. The preferred wave count as is attached as number 2.

A peep at the 2007 projection and more importantly the underlying hard facts for the first part tell me that although delayed we are on track. The fine tuning on the timing is something that needs perhaps an other angle if at all possible to achieve this but you can’t blame a bloke for trying can you. Last week I did some old fashioned Gann squaring price and time again and besides hits on the index value I got time hits on 21st and 23rd of January for the 217,80 Cycle. Before you get to excited I have to immediately explain that the time and price squaring has many different flavors which sets off the Gann criticasters. Without getting into too much detail a next price range hit is 516 and time hit next month.

So we will start the week going up and look for the Negative Reversal Potential to allow the continuation of the Short Term Trend. This will be confirmed by a similar exercise in the DJIA that might be your confirmation if you hesitate to trade on the AEX signaling it will cost you some index points but if it helps you feel comfortable go for it. Needless to say that there are exit signals if applicable you will have to go for an other route. Do now worry about it just follow the objective signaling route.

Have Fun trading to Win.

 

[BElieVE]

Wat een beren op de weg weer....

Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooood Morning!

I've attached a couple of pics to illustrate what will be the most plausible roadmap scenario's for the AEX performance in the near future according to my system. Pic one is an illustration of Clown's long term scenario where wave 1 and 2 are placed and we currently are positioned in wave 3 up. Mind you, I seriously doubt wether we have seen the low of wave 2 already as the correction seems too little regarding the impulsive move up from wave 1. A more plausible wave 2 would be a correction towards appr. 450 in my humble opinion. Whether or not we descend some more in the near future, in the long run we are heading up towards a target of appr. 580 LT.

For the short term I think the downward potential is limited regarding the drop that started last thursday at around 508,50 and put the index 12 points lower the next day at 496,50. Off course it's not a sign of strenght to see the index loose 12 points in 2 sessions, but I believe the movement was too strong and a corrective move up is due to come. We might even have seen the low on friday and if so we are looking at a short term scenario that you can find in pic 2. It corresponds with GJN target of 512 and is in line with the weekly PR Clown refers to.

For the moment it remains questionable however, wether the index actually reached its low last friday. There is off course another more corrective scenario of a ED that states we've only seen wave 1,2, and 3 down and are currently in a corrective wave 4 up that will brings us to appr. 503, from where we can expect a final drop below 500 tomorrow or wednesday to set wave 5. (see pic 3).


Edit 1: another pic.
Today looks like being executed as a flat, awaiting the yanks to open for more direction. Check the REO where the red line is about to make a move upwards, pushing the bleu line up as well.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

goeden middag...

Thank’s Believe,

From what I understand the software you use includes the added patterns Bob junior published which basically allows more retracement than Elliott does. The software I use allows to analyze both definitions but not simultaneous so I for now stick to the Elliott patterns, I am extremely curious how the two differ that’s why I sort of giving you a hard time. An other area of interest is the way your toy references and scores the found scenario’s towards the ideal pattern definitions. Perhaps I should repeat an earlier made observation since it might be lost in the volume above; The second wave if not completed on 470,54 does not have to be completed lower than this value if fact the NR target in the EOD chart indicates so. Also you are quite right that there is a distinct possibility that 512+ will be shown first but the good thing about that option is that the objective signaling will inform you well in advance if appropriate.

Your remarks about the level of movement makes good sense in fact it is an area I have been playing with recently but have not been able to isolate an objective way to define the level and the hard signaling. The way to filter this for instance out of a Fast and Slow Stochastics does not seem to bring what I am looking for. I look at it in the sense of “communicating water” in a system according to nature’s laws in combination with the vague Brown description. Maybe you or someone else has some thoughts to share here.

The intraday chart presently shows a Negative Reversal Signal within the lower Range of the favorite indicator only the reversal target is above the Friday low. Basically this is in sync with the roadmap for this week only the Yank’s are still sleeping and they have similar characteristics in the DJIA charts. Reasonable suspicion. So I switch to my KVKD systems to look for more clue’s there. The EOD system – see last week – is playing with the boundary of the Trending (sub) Area’s right in the middle so more doubt rather than guidance. The intraday KVKD system provides the backing for the week roadmap as the AEX is moving sideways towards the upper boundary of the Trading Area after completing a back test of the Trending (sub) Area in the middle this morning.

Keep up the good work.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Wakker Worden....!!!

Look at your charts....

EDIT:
BElieve,
Yesterday the DJIA took over as master... today the AEX followed as slave.... they now carry both the signal see above posts roadmap.... you have an entry... a target and a stop-loss / exit.....
he ho he ho.....

 

[BElieVE]

Huh, we gaan omhoog.

I look at my charts and what do I see? We are heading back up again. Shortsqueeze.

Edit 1:
In addition to Clowns roadmap for this week it looks like we've seen the weekly high again already. Therefor I closed my long position and opened a short position to head below 500 again. Exit should be at 497 if I am correct.

Edit 2:
Yanks stay flat tonight and seem to be awaiting the fed's decision and Bernanke's speech tomorrow.

Ploatje d'rbij

 

[albee]

weet niet alles maar.....

it all does strongly remember me to first week May 2006.
Be aware....(FED mayby the trigger??)
(whit out picture, you all know w're talking about, i guess).
Look at ND by at sample S&P.

 

[BElieVE]

flat for the fed

Closed my shorts @ sub 500 awaiting the fed's decision tonight, market is very nervous and my system tells me it could go either way, up or down. Better save than sorry...

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Rustig maar Believe moderatie werkt hier goed

Closed half this morning sort of on the present day low.... looking for bounce up or sideway's movement presently..... if it hits my trend line..... more short on turn .... if the trend line brakes close the other half of shorts...... mind you NR's in both AEX and DJIA have not yet met targets.....

Just trading to WIN.

EDIT: ploatje dr bij >1000 words
Wake up I smell coffee

EDIT2;
The DJIA hit it's NR exit so I am not going to wait on the AEX NR to hit; closed all shorts. next round...... now it's time for a drink.... cheers.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Het geld ligt op straat gewoon een kwestie van oppakken

In Yank’s Land the Negative Reversal Signal was blown out of the water and I extremely compliment the Yank’s that the already did this when we were still open for business so I could act accordingly. The rest is history so let’s look at the AEX for some trading today.

The Negative Reversal Signal in the AEX is still as valid as it has ever been and the exit allows some upwards movement. This will be the thing for today and day’s to come looking for a nice entry to short close to the exit, let’s roll the dice…..

Happy trading.

 

[Blinker]

Maar je moet wel bukken

Today we have a gap opening in the monthly. I've looked back and it was 1997 and '98 when we had a 1% gap opening also. The market advanced in the beginning, but there was a decline of nearly 30 % to fill up the gap.

Today's first goal is 507.45 in the fti.

Good luck........

 

[BElieVE]

niet kakelen, maar eieren leggen

2 scenario's were my system gives the second one a higher score for the short term.

 

[quick]

al is de AEX nog zo snel, achterhaalt de NR hem wel..?

plse allow me a Brown RSI technical question: today the AEX produces NR's on several timeframes, with targets in the range 496 - 497. Now: on the 5minitue chart an intraday PR signal has come up with target 508. Will this last PR be more valid (on short notice) than the NR on larger timescale?

 

[quick]

find attached graph illustrating above question ref. 5 minute chart

 

[The Dutch Clown]

moest effe een paar klusjes doen

Sorry was out of the office for a while due to other work that had to be done. Closed also all my systems so Windows XP can be closed and started again I have to say Mister Gates once again did provide bad software that becomes extremely slow after a day or so. Yes I know many systems to run but that’s why one uses computers anyway?!

Since we use similar systems Believe I had serious doubt yesterday as well based on the internal wave structure. When the Yank’s went trough the Negative Reversal exit and the next one qualified as questionable I did not hesitate any more. This morning the AEX went through it’s Negative Reversal exit and also the next one qualified as questionable so we will have to see where the AEX is ending up with before the Yank’s start influencing again.

Interesting observation Blinker you are scaring us a bit with your ultimate crash reference so let’s see what the rest of the day will bring us gap wise. By the way you were absent for a while everything in control I trust?

Welcome Quick the short timeframes are subject to change rather quickly so you will have to be constantly alert no coffee brake or even a visit to the bathroom could become expensive. It is however a very good learning process to capture signals and investigate different options to qualify the signals. Lately I have been playing with a Slow/ Fast Stochastics combination only did not yet succeed to isolate an outstanding differentiator. Extremely relaxed is the GJN taught trending methodology although you must be comfortable to incorporate some losses every once in a while. I hate that word.

 

[Blinker]

No crash today

Hello again,

I was out for a while, was looking for a bottom 2. Brown said something like "flats are choppy and get you of track" The discussion about the EWO is not for me, don't have that function.
But still not sure about the bottom..... An expended flat in the monthly can still occur. Wave A 470, B 509 and C? This is not the favourite scenario....
My favourite is bottom 2 in the weekly stands, we are now heading for a wave 3 up in the week- and monthly. If that is the scenario, this is just the beginning. I have a target of 523,82

Today is not a crash day. But if the above writing is correct..... who knows what will happen in a few months?

Dear quick,

The NR you mention is not a NR but a ND. Lower price and higher RSI, the opposite of your PR. The PR's and NR's in the intra-day are shorter in time (and in price) but often valid.

Success.....

Bijlage: stukkie behang.

 

[quick]

Thx Clown for your reply. Indeed the 2 a/o 5 minute charts I find quite time consuming and intense to trade on. Last week some clumsy trading costed me roughly 10k on AX4 calls, which I am not too proud of, still looking for some safty straps. The GJN trending techniques do not apply on these short timeframes if I am not mistaken. What keeps troubling me is validation of the signals depending subject to the analyzed timeframe. GJN has not responded one single time to your suggestions in f.i. october/december/januar. Maybe you can help me out with some directions or where to look (could not find in Brown's book either). Regards the fast stochastics, I found out that the buy signals on the 5min chart seem reasonable reliable. Woodies CCI seems to have some potential, but is not quite anticipating.
Cheers.

 

[The Dutch Clown]

nieuwe dag nieuwe ronde nieuwe kansen.

Quick,

You don’t want to know how much I have lost trading Technical Analysis Old School based on the same software GJN uses to show his charts, it’s history and one needs to look ahead. When I changed to Elliott I still was losing some but the winnings were definitely larger. Gann did the rest and now I am stressing the system objectives to the ultimate limit. Technical Analysis New School did bring the reading capabilities as opposed to the lagging indicators in the Old School.

Yep I tried several times including the question about the Composite he told me some time ago he could not answer due to regulations. Recently he could someone else answer that he did not use it at all. What can I say, only a guess that he also has no clue. The trending methodology can be used on each and every timeframe and in fact once I have entered a trade I even look as far down at the Tick level to see what it does in the region of my trailing stop loss.

The validation is indeed something untouched by Brown and she tends to become vague on several interesting subjects in the book, well we need to try something ourselves like she suggested anyway. So I am looking at a combination of different things and as I said above I am playing with a combination of Fast and Slow Stochastics, in Elliott terms you use different wave levels so if the fastest wave has come to an end you look at the slower one where you are in the cycle, etc etc. An other thing I have been playing with is something I call the potential sort of based on the re-engineering chapter in combination with the infamous page 58 statement . The third routing I am pursuing is the KVKD system which is a combination of a couple of techniques I am using into what I call trending area’s it’s a bit more than just a trending since potential turning point are indicated as well. From a trading perspective you should always use a trailing stop this told me last Tuesday to close my shorts together with a cross reference check on the DJIA. Mind you cross referencing the US you will have take the eur\dol in account as well and there a 123 move applies.

Bottom line here is that I have always strongly believed that a combination of techniques and/or indicators can identify identical situations by which one can trade to win. Combining Elliott and Gann did improve my trading results dramatically and adding the Technical Analysis New School bits and pieces positively helped as well. It has to be said that the we you trade is the key factor one should find and use analysis pieces that correspond to ones trading habits.

So I am afraid I do not have a single simple answer just a whole lot of work to be done in that sense Brown and Gann are completely right.

 

[BElieVE]

Tok!

The high score scenario for the short term tells me there is little potential upwards. Now dont get excited and instantly jump in shorts to surf the 4th wave down as a fifth up is due in line. The red line bends upwards and will push the blue line up as well suggesting there still is room for lower scores on the 4th wave. Better wait till the 5th is finished for some serious decline...

 

[The Dutch Clown]

Als ge moar leut heb en links en rechts wat geld oprapen

Looking at the Elliott Oscillator in the EOD chart shows the present challenge so the phrase “make or brake” is appropriate in this respect today. The oscillator reading is negative from last Friday until yesterday and at the present AEX value the oscillator is positive if it sticks a fifth wave would be the most likely scenario.
The green lines in the AEX chart form the current KVKD system, as you can see the middle line served as support. If you do a bit of re-engineering you learn that the Positive Reversal target from the weekly chart is an feasible objective and even at close in the EOD chart the Negative Reversal remains active.

But, However:
Looking at an hourly chart the current KVKD system indicates its time for a brake. Looking at the Elliott Oscillator in this chart is not presenting a crystal clear picture so let’s leave it at the observation that the oscillator shows divergence on 507,92 compared to 508,52 which itself shows divergence compared to 509. That’s a bit untidy not the perfect order we would expect the financial community to be which by some is considered to be an indication. If you consult the combination of both a Slow and Fast Stochastics you will find some clues that recapture long potential is realistic.

The Boy Scout
Once again the differences between the Analyst and the Trader pop up simply put; the Analyst just wants to see an AEX value 512 and does not care when or even if at all; the Trader wants to make some money, up or down, 512 or 3xx, today, tomorrow if only consistently over a period of many year’s. From the 512 Analysts perspective all objectivity seems to have gone with the wind how right in the end it may be. The traders perspective is to be extremely careful playing Long positions since there is trading to be done even beyond 512 this does not mean no long positions it’s just handle with care and apply trailing stop losses even more rigorously.

A word of thanks and appreciation
To all the above posters and the moderators of this forum it seems to finally work to have a number of people contribute different disciplines sharing opinions and views without the immature interruptions.