Does pkfryer care to respond? Let's see how much money he's made with CT?
Joe, dont get angry. I was just asking a valid question. I have looked at many many systems and techniques and have been open minded. I must admit that he does make it sound a bit too easy though.
I have not thoroughly back tested the system as I went on to other things and didn't have the time to set up a test but I am planning on getting around to it.
Its actually not as bad as everyone makes it out to be, its just very simplistic and the stop loss logic is a bit questionable on very high ranged days (which it doesn't take account of) also it doesn't help the trader know when to exit a trade which is very important. Also, with CTA (day trader methodology) the risk reward factor is questionable: going for 1:1 trades... doesn't sound too good!
The basis of the method reminds me of some of the prestine methodologies, they dont look at indicators but candlestick patterns and they also work with the trend only using moving averages. The CT technique actually has some sound ideas:
1. never trade against the overall trend.. always with it!
2. Wait for a retracement
3. Wait for a confirmation of the trend continuing by looking at a candle pattern AND for the EMA line to tick up
4. USE stop losses and money management!
5. Use orders to get into a trade, your in only in if price confirms the price patterns.
5. If the set up isnt 100% walk away from the set up and go for something else
It also has some sound advice about the market and about surviving rather than being greedy or trading for thrill!
The CTA method is similar and actually has some reasonable concepts too:
1. Always trade with the trend of the next time frame up (a multi-frame approach advocated by many)
2. Wait for a minor resistance line to be established against the overiding trend
3. Set up an order to sell below the minor support (against the trend) or buy above minor resistance.
Both highly accepted tactics.
4. Set up a stop loss.
5. Walk away the moment it starts to look anything less than perfecct.
Its actually not a bad concept. If the trend is going up and its good strong trend, that upward movement has to come from somewhere. It comes from the time frame BELOW. Therefore it pays to to bet on the side of the trend 1 time frame below. Most times it will work but when it doesn't you have stop losses.
These are reasonable no indicator techniques, the main criticism is he doesn't outline the risks and makes it sound too easy. The price of the courses are way way way too expensive!! That is the reason I turn negative in my attitude. There are books for 30 quid that contain about a thousand times more information and ideas in it! There is no rule for helping you decide when to take your profit which is actually the MOST important technique. Its easy to enter a profitable trade (with practice), but with these short term moves that last only days before the profit disappears... when do you get out.
I think with some variations and adaptations it could be the basis to take things further with your own approach.
I'm not an advocate just saying that the concepts aren't that bad, but the price makes it a conn, but then again its the way these trading things work.... you are meant to be buying something that will make you thousands, so whats a few hundred quid! I've found that with many things in the trading world... software, data feeds and courses: Its SO expensive, EVERYTHING trading related.. so this is no different in that respect. For instance, I have spent hundreds of pounds on metastock plugins that are very simplistic and basic things... hardly would have taken much time to develop, but they charge you such large amounts of money because of the possibility that these add ons will make you a lot of money if used properly.
How much would someone sell you the genuine "horn of plenty" for, if it existed? How much is something that builds wealth going to cost? Thats the philosophy they use when peddling the merchandise... and if it genuinely helps you make money can we blame them. Its a conn if they sell you a plastic replica, but not a conn if it works.
I'll lay down the gauntlett! I've got a few system testing tools and I'll get around to coding in the system exactly as its stated in his course for the CT and CTA. Test it on the markets he advocates (very fluid blue chip companies) and you do the same. We'll see what thorough back testing does. I have to warn you though... the mothod is quite tricky to code for some platforms (Metastock is a good example)... as there is an abort clause that triggers BEFORE the trade is entered. i.e. how do you code in the fact that you dont want a previously entered limit order to go ahead if a certain circumstance happens? I'll have a think!
Joe, whilst we wait... post your system test findings.
