Calling all "Senior Members T2W" Experienced traders! Help Newbies?

stevespray said:
chump....

Could it be that when folk first discover 'the markets' they look at charts and other such things such as complicated computer trading systems. In hindsight the markets look easy. This is why the snake oil salesmen can make their money from the uneducated. Not only do they sell their wares but also the dream of being rich, all this based on chart patterns which seem oh so easy to read. This mistake Soc has mentioned. The markets are not there for our benifit.

Steve.
Additionally, since you mention it, when I used to teach newbies from scratch, on the very first day on the very first morning they would receive an "introductory bollicking" in which for 20 to 25 minutes they got read the riot act of how dangerous all of this is if you do not do it correctly, and how difficult it is for ordinary people to come to terms with what it is they have to do, and how everything is against you, and how hard you have to work on it and yourself to overcome all the traps, all the temptations, all the dangers, how much work is entailed, all about discipline, focus, self governance of he highest order required, and how you would only succeed if you were capable of dealing with all these menaces, in fact I described the most daunting obstacle course you can imagine enough to put anybody off.

I would then leave the door open for exactly 2 minutes and encouraged anyone who wanted to leave to do so. An immediate refund was offered to anyone who wished to leave and an assurance that it would not be regarded negatively. And, in addition, an extra £50 in cash would be given so that the departee could home by taxi or whatever First Class as I did not want anyone to feel coerced or unhappy. Result ? No one ever left, with the exception of two. One had given me a cheque that was wrongly filled out three times and the other was an old boy who simply was not up to it. I took him aside and sent him home, making the class bellieve he was not feeling well. His taxi fare was £80 as I remember.

Once the door was shut, we would get down to the topic, taught in ascending rafts of complexity but explained from many different aspects in order to give it more than one flat dimension. A topic would be explained in detail, step by step. The class would listen,
then they could ask questions, then they were allowed to challenge and try to present an alternative that could prove that markets do not work according to supply and demand but some other reason, whether astrology, politics, or whatever, in an attempt to find a flaw.

No flaw could be found because there wasn't any. Then they would take notes of what they had been taught , in detail. Then they were invited to ask any further questions. Then they would be asked if they understood it . If there was the slightest doubt or hint of a doubt it would be explained again until it was understood. Then the class would, one by one explain what they had learnt back to me and to each other rigorously one by one. Any individual errors were corrected on the spot.

I made sure that everyone had understood, challenged, noted, asked questions, was able to explain, had not further questions to ask to my satisfaction and theirs. I had the attitude no one was allowed to leave the class until all this had been completed painstakingly. Then a tea break, then back again for another session, step by step.

Once a module had been completed we would revise it and the one before that.

You would think people would understand after all this would you not ? After all, it is more, much more, that can be expected from anyone.

Well, not exactly.

Because what they wanted was not to get to grips with all of this to master it and make it their own individual intellectual property so that they could deal with the market effectively as a result of having acquired and mastered the concepts, no, what they wanted was to have the bits they liked and for them to ignore the bits that they did not like.

And at the end of the course for them to go away and suddenly make millions in a very short period of time. And no question of individual effort. Effort is a nasty word that involves work, another nasty word. No, there must be some shortcut somewhere.

Therefore what transpires is a tragic comedy. The idea of having to paper trade for a minimum of six months and submit their results, with questions etc., oh no none of that ! They wanted to get fastened onto it straight away, as they did not consider the idea of paper trading to give themselves the chance to see and experience, everything they had been taught unfolding necessary or even desireable.

The question of using stops was another matter that people are reluctant to accept.

So here we have a typical example of an individual who thinks he knows better and who argues. he argues that a stop ought to be wide in order to take account of volatility.
Can you think of anything more ridiculous ? He would not accept to abstain during these periods and wanted to have a go all the time.

In addition this individual goes and does everything he ought not to have done, not because I say it, but because it is the experience recorded of all who have gone before us whose experiences and whose legacy in this respect is foolish to ignore.

But this individual of course knows better. He disregards all the evidence laid in front of him in these respects and then goes and chooses a fast instrument which he does not understand let alone become familiar with and starts to trade them in multiples, sometimes with a 20 point stop instead of a 2 or a 3 and sometimes without one at all, against all admonishment, repeated warnings, and against the advice of his broker, who explained at the time a client could not be forced to use a stop.

Of course he makes a complete mess of it all, whose fault is it now ? Is the driving instructor responsible for the new driver to disregard all he has learnt and crash the car through speeding and dangerous driving on unfamiliar roads ?

And then he is unfairly criticised and blamed for everything. So there is no more tuition. That is the result. In fact, I have a file, and it is two inches thick on the subject, and I honestly do not have the stamina to replicate everything ~ enough is to say that the facts speak for themselves.
 
kevin546 said:
So to sum up thus far, the market is not there for our benefit, we make our own success and are responsible for our own actions there is but no one to blame but ourselves. We have to approach trading and the market as an entity unknown to us, we have to start again by learning the market as it is and not as we perceive it to be before we can make judgements on what the market is from structured knowledge of how the market really does work. Only then can we begin to move towards the first step.

Our mindset has to be open to complete thought removing all bias only from complete understanding and confirmed knowledge can we then presume to know or understand how the markets work.

This requires more than just dedication, it requires strength of character and the right character to be able to comprehend and deal with all that the market can throw our way as it is totally unforgiving. It requires a willingness and desire to learn and continue to learn even when you make progress up the hidden ladder of success. You must be prepared to totally commit yourself to this enterprise that can take years to achieve and become a labour of love and part structured obsession to work your way through the trials and tribulations of understanding how it works.

Am I on the right path!


kevin
Yes Kevin you are.
 
DaveJB said:
The market operates whether you are in it or not, if you are in it then you can make money but the market will continue whether you do or you do not. Other investors will not only not give a fig if it you win or lose, they will generally not know you were even in unless you tell them. It's like interacting with a machine - I know some people have pet names for their cars, but it won't make it any more reliable, safer, faster or economical to drive.

Markets don't react to what you do either - 'I did this, then the market dropped to take out my stop before reversing...' don't allocate intelligence to a distribution system, especially if you are so small as to be unnoticeable within it, just learn how it works. (Which isn't all that easy in a complex system).

I think a fair number come in thinking it is easy money, possibly fuelled by the unusual bull market of the late 90's. They believe that the more you pay out, the better the software, data and advice you'll get, and with this 'edge' you can't help but make a profit. Low barriers to entry via spreadbetting ensure a steady influx of fodder for the SB companies at least.

It also goes without saying that when you do look at a trading program the signals absolutely jump out at you - 'at the hard right edge' the signals are often far less obvious, and you are likely viewing a chart preselected for its allure to begin with.

Lots of traps around, but they are often of our own making.

Dave
(By the way Soc, if I'm one of the 19 who disappeared or whatever it was you counted, I've been busy and only just got back! I DID leave T2W onscreen however.... )
No it wasn't you, it was The Bramble, Bigbusiness and another five.
 
Yes, I certainly agree generally with the notion that we should all do some "unlearning" for the benefit of our trading.......

But would 'deconditioning' be a more appropriate expression...?..open to debate.....!

On a humorous note, I just went to make a positive addition to Soc's reputation, and got the message:-

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to SOCRATES again.

Who's next...........?......... :LOL:
 
Still unsure I'm following - (Of course the markets are not there for my benefit - I got that part.)I'm not disagreeing with anything you all said since my last post, but not sure I got an answer to my first question either.

If "You have to be in to win." is a myth, and "in" means having an open position, are you all saying the best way to advance my net worth is to not trade, ever? I would have thought that a few exquisitely placed positions at the right time and place over the course of a year might be profitable for a person who knew when to do it.
JO
 
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What's up with those stars anyhow? I see newbies with 5 of them, and others who I admire with none? How do I give a star to someone?
Thanks,
JO
 
JumpOff said:
What's up with those stars anyhow? I see newbies with 5 of them, and others who I admire with none? How do I give a star to someone?
Thanks,
JO

I just gave you a rise.
 
JumpOff

I may have misunderstood this but I took it to mean that you have to be in a trade to actually win from it and to take this a little further, you have to know what to do before you get in a trade. So thinking back if you do not know how the markets work you should not be in a trade because you are not fully prepared to deal with all that the market may present you. Which brings us back to being in a trade. You can only be in a trade when you know what you are doing and are prepared for it. So you can only win when you are prepared through knowledge aquired.

Now watch me get slapped for that!

Regards

Kevin
 
Hang on when did I become a veteran, I'm not even 50 yet! LOL No offence meant to those older and wiser. JumpOff have you been dishing out stars.

Regards

Kevin
 
boyoboy - Well thats a silly bunch of fun! Thanks for completing my masquerade. How do I do that to someone else?

P.S. have to go coach my child's soccer team - I'll check on you all when I get back.
 
Socrates:- The question of using stops was another matter that people are reluctant to accept.

Possibly understandable in that investors/aspiring 'traders' are conditioned to accept buying shares as long term assets and accepting periods when the assets are 'underwater' in the hopes of a successful outcome when the market rises at some undetermined point and gives them a nice profit to vindicate their patience and judgement.

'short term pain for long term gain' might summarise the attitude.....

But plainly this places your funds at extreme risk using high leveraged instruments in volatile markets....

The difference is immense, but the ingrained conditioning renders the aspiring trader reluctant to accept this......

(been there/dunnit...... ;) )

Why lose when with a wide stop (or no stop..!) and more patience, you might cover for a bad entry and eventually win......?!

You find out eventually and invariably expensively.......

Decondition......Decondition.....
 
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Wide or adjusted stops can generally mean that if you make profit from it then it is a bad deal turned profit then these deals will eventually catch up with the trader because they are wrong and have just been lucky with the result.

In the end as you point out eventually that wide stop will have to become wider or it gets taken out and you lose a lot more than you would otherwise of wanted to. In addition trading in such an undisciplined way will overtime record larger losers than winners and a loss position overall and potential wipe out without.

Wide stops placed on a correctly structured method of trading, maybe based on a weekly or monthly time frame that could be another matter but as always would need correct money management.

Kevin
 
Correct. In any other circumstance the stop placed must be tight, in order to minimise losses and additionally if you are wrong, you are wrong, having a wide stop or shifting it about or removing it will make a bad situation worse.

This does not mean that you place the stop so tightly that you are going to get it hit at the slightest wobble.
Nor does it mean that when you place a tight stop you are wrong first and attempting to minimise cost.
No one willfully, consciously takes a wrong position on purpose, with the intention of losing money.

You may be right when you take the position, but market conditions may change at that instant and if you do not have a stop, by the time you realise what is going on the gap may have deepened, this is assuming in addition you do not get frozen. Therefore the insertion of stops is crucial.
 
Let us turn our attention to the subject of Unlearning.

It is not as difficult as it seems:~

You cannot learn, that is truly learn anything until first of all you accept it and secondly until you have a realisation about whether it is meaningful.

To unlearn is the opposite: Here the drill is to reconsider a notion and then decide you will not accept it anymore as it has shown itself to be non relevant. Because it is not relevant the meaning attached to is made to decay either instantly or by degrees. When this process is complete what you originally thought now has neither relevance nor meaning, and, it is effectively unlearnt.

The more you practise this thinking skill the easier it will become in time.
 
Part of the problem is the mindset of the trading who is unable to keep to a stop.

The mind tells them as soon as they click on the order ticket to close the deal they have no only lost money but they were wrong, they have great difficulty in accepting this fact because we are taught it is not good to be wrong they cannot bring themselves to admit defeat, and this is how they see it!. No one wins anything in life for being a loser. It is even harder for them to pull the trigger if at some stage during the deal they had some profit but are now in a loss position. This is where they will convince themselves that they should have taken the profit when they had it or they look for all sorts of excuses as to why this deal lost but they never look to themselves. until they do this they will not move forward.

They are approaching this all wrong and as Socrates & others have laboured the point they have not taken the trouble to learn the market and adapt the mind to the market. They have to accept that there are no sure things every time, only the chance that something may work. When they enter it should not be with a presumption or hope that they will win. there is no place for presumptions and hope within the market.

The fact is it MAY work, that's the best you are going to get! So if it does not work the stop represents what you were willing to risk on this deal. Consider it the charge of placing the deal, the cost of a lottery ticket but you did not win. If the method the trader is applying has obtained the correct knowledge in producing it then most of the deals entered will return profit and there will be more winning tickets from this lottery than losing one's. Without the correct knowledge more of the tickets will be just that, charges for tickets not giving a winner.

Kevin
 
And in addition they view a stop being hit as a symptom of a defeat, in advance expectation of a defeat, whch they view as a personal affront that includes pain, instead of an inconsequential business expense, which is the wrong way round to look at it for a start.
 
Socrates

post 421 regarding unlearning maybe easier to paint a picture of what you define by presenting an example.

I will try to do this.

I can recall a site that used to provide details of all the trades indicating what were buys and sells. The system used was computer generated and was real time. Having read about the importance of volume and the concept of big players and supply and demand I remember how some traders would be glued to this screen and use the list of buys over sells to support holding a position they may have taken that morning. On the face of it this particular information appeared really useful.

However, often the price would go in the opposite direction that had been indicated by the overwhelming lead the buys had. What became evident over further study was this system was dangerous. The information could not be relied upon because it was in another's control to enter the details. Deals that were shown as a buy could easily have been a sell, delayed large orders would appear to show a buy when at a later time that would have been a sell. Some deals you could not ascertain from the guide what it was. It was unreliable information. The net result was that it was useless and should not be used. On that basis something which at first light appeared to be a worthy tool for trading was not and this was no longer used.

I hope this maybe a suitable example.

Kevin
 
kevin546 said:
Socrates

post 421 regarding unlearning maybe easier to paint a picture of what you define by presenting an example.

I will try to do this.

I can recall a site that used to provide details of all the trades indicating what were buys and sells. The system used was computer generated and was real time. Having read about the importance of volume and the concept of big players and supply and demand I remember how some traders would be glued to this screen and use the list of buys over sells to support holding a position they may have taken that morning. On the face of it this particular information appeared really useful.

However, often the price would go in the opposite direction that had been indicated by the overwhelming lead the buys had. What became evident over further study was this system was dangerous. The information could not be relied upon because it was in another's control to enter the details. Deals that were shown as a buy could easily have been a sell, delayed large orders would appear to show a buy when at a later time that would have been a sell. Some deals you could not ascertain from the guide what it was. It was unreliable information. The net result was that it was useless and should not be used. On that basis something which at first light appeared to be a worthy tool for trading was not and this was no longer used.

I hope this maybe a suitable example.

Kevin
Yes Kevin this is a very good example and is particularly interesting because it includes a self imposed remedy as a result of having a realisation through understanding and acceptance. This is something that had to be explored and experientially verified. But it had to be explored first.

In other matters there is not need to explore because other traders that have preceded us have recorded their experiences and observations for us to benefit from. And on this theme I am going to deal with the previous post to yours.
 
We have discussed the concept of stops and how important they are and difficult to apply to the uninitiated. When can they be over-ruled. When you have developed greater awareness of this system and how the market position can unfold so that your deal begins to change. When the reason for your entry is not longer present or relevant.

This I feel is where you can attempt to improve on stops by closing your deal in advance of the stop, from knowledge you have acquired correctly it has become evident that this particular deal is not going to work and the balance of probabilities are no longer in your favour but are now more likely to result in a loss.

However this step should not be considered until this area of your trading has been fully researched according to your correct method, without this you may find yourself closing to early and missing out. This aspect I also feel is another skill to master and relies on the ability to evaluate changing conditions and the relevance of this according to your position. So it should not be attempted until researched and paper traded so that you understand how to do it correctly. In a way I think it is a revaluation of the risk you are willing to accept according to the changing developments.

Regards

Kevin
 
The Clown In The Class

Thirteen said:
my my albert - wot a nice chap u r wot?

u mean u didnt even tie any asians up or exclude the negroes this time?

something just dont add up does it.

if this dude is wrong about wot he says bout you, why dont u sue his butt 4 the damage caused?

hmmm thought not.

ok ok guys im sorry - couldnt resist - and im sorry some of u think my input into this thread haz been a total waste of time

however id also say a big ITS A PLEASURE to the 30 people who pm me with gratitude 4 the information i have provided REGARDING CONTROL PRICES - and u have IMMEDIATLY seen the value of (beats reading 29 pages of nothing in particular dont it ;) ).

i really am off now - im glad i helped some of u.
listen thirteen, you don't know anything about anything. I am going to put the record straight for you so that tonight you end up knowing something.

These negroes you talk about were not in the context described by your friend. During a coffee break we were talking about Linford Christie and his superb athletic acheivements, in which I remarked that some black athletes are fantastic. I never said anything derogatory about black people just that it seems that culturally they are keen sportsmen and women, but they do not seem to be attracted to puzzles. I then went on to say that when I was studying Navigation at the School of Navigation in Tower Hill we had a Nigerian student.
He had a terrible problem with the sextant. If he was able to use it vertically then he was not able to use it horizontally. If later he succeeded in using it horizontally then he could not use it vertically. The tutor became exasperated and gave up. I gave up my lunch hour to try to solve it for him, but without success. This does not mean he was thick. It means his frame of reference does not include being able to conceptually distinguish in abstract form the contrast between doing the same thing but in different planes. This is a cultural thing. I was asked if I would take black pupils. I replied that I have no knowledge of black people and have nothng against them as I don't know any, but based on that experience I had I would rather not.

And insofar as the Asian you talk about, again you not knowing anything about anything as usual, this individual would not take anything of a serious nature seriously and would not learn his lesson.

To illustrate the consequence of not learning his lesson, when asked to repeat what had just been said to him he could not, after 3 attempts !

Everyone who came to study with me knew in advance that if they did not pay correct attention they would not learn properly what had to be learnt. I do not tolerate nonsense, because I don't have to. And they all knew in advance they were liable to be tied up or shoved in a cupboard or other, so there is no nonsense about political correctness or other nanny state protcols applying. Everyone knew in advance and everyone agreed.

And another situation that arises is that a class of adults surprisingly can sometimes behave in a childish manner, pushing the envelope to see if someone is willing to play the clown for them. The clown thinks he is clever. He is not clever at all. The others laugh because as a peer group they lose their personal identiities temporarily as a result of peer influence of the wrong sort, not exactly peer pressure, just peer inference.

To illustrate what happens to someone who makes a muck of his trading has to have some dramatic impact on him and the rest of the class, who considered him like a sort of clown, rather like the antics you get up to here. I tied him to his chair, and I put a sticking plaster across his mouth and I put a paper bag over his head.

He was held like this for three minutes, and the rest of the class in complete silence. After the three minutes were up the paper bag was lifted. He was able to see but not talk. I then removed the plaster, now he could see and talk, finally I untied him. Why ? Because there has to be some extreme example to make an irresponsible individual come to his senses.

As a consequence of wiping his deposit, he would have lost his ability to act.

As a consequence of this being his own fault, he would not be able to complain about it or blame anyone else, this was the reason for the tape. As a consequence of losing his deposit, he would have lost his ability to act, for some time until he would have been able to replenish his account, this is why he was tied up. As a consequence of losing his datafeed, he would not be able to follow events in real time, thsi was the reason for the paper bag.

All these actions are as a consequence of each other and under his control and nobody elses'. He had to be forced to tangibly understand the consequences of fooling around.

I did not tie him up because he was an Asian, I tied him up to bring him to his senses, which in the end analysis I failed to do as he went on later to ignore everything and to dabble in options, big time, in the full knowledge that this is a specialised niche of which he knew very little, and against all warnings that up to 85% of them expire worthless !

I did not tie him up because he was not white or purple I tied him up because he behaved like a spoilt child, and subsequent events vindicated the warning signs.

This guy, as you call him has not done me any damage. Any intelligent person can see through all he says. To the contrary he has brought me a lot of interest, but I do not want to bother with teaching newbies. You would be an example that any tutor would avoid like the plague, for example, as you are too opinionated for your own good, without a basis for it.

I am not going to bother to sue a failure. His failure is his punishment. And if that is not punishment enough, there is extra punishment, and that is that for me it would be very easy to help him if he were otherwise disposed, but I am able to punish, and punish severely, by withdrawing any help or assistance of any kind, including access to pertinent knowledge.

And now you can clear off and make a nuisance of yourself somewhere else.
 
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